Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Remember how at EURef Newcastle and Sunderland gave us the fir

178101213

Comments

  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    Did some GOTV phone banking for the first time this evening. If the old dears are all turning out to vote, that certainly isn't the case in Oxfordshire. Met with a barrage of can't-be-arsedness.

    Meanwhile, our local Co-op has started selling some startlingly good local cider, so on with the Beeb and out with the bottles.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145

    what a nerve-wracking night!

    Welcome to PB! :D It's going to be a mad house tonight.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    edited June 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    My assistant today told me proudly that she had voted Labour to stand up to Brexit. I asked her what constituency she was in. She didn't know. I asked for her postcode.

    She was in Vauxhall.

    Someone tweeted that Lib Dems were v close there in the canvassing. 1%
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,409
    DavidL said:

    Is it tempting fate to get the champagne out now?

    Nah. Your team has done well.
  • Well good luck all! Well done the Candidates and activists of all parties!!
  • The exit polls were very leak-free before the Miliband surprise ( of his low-end performance ) , as I recall ..
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Prodicus said:

    As a long time lurker but first time poster during this campaign, may I record my gratitude to Mike and Robert Smithson, TSE and all the rest of the brilliant PB team. Throughout the last weeks, this site has been not only utterly addictive, but also an invaluable source of wisdom, humour and insight. It is the first site I visit every morning, the last I switch off every night. Whatever happens from 10pm, it has been gripping to follow PB over the course of the campaign Now just 17 minutes to go.

    Hear, hear. Thank you.
    Me too. If things go well I hope the donate button will return at an opportune moment.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,283
    At this point in 2015 we got a tweet from Nick Robinson, anything this year?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Hearing turnout could be close to 70% - have the youths turned out for Corbyn? #GE2017

    66.4% in 2015.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    rcs1000 said:

    My assistant today told me proudly that she had voted Labour to stand up to Brexit. I asked her what constituency she was in. She didn't know. I asked for her postcode.

    She was in Vauxhall.

    Priceless! :)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Owen jones doesn't sound too confident on twitter
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Chameleon said:

    slade said:

    Hearing that the Lib Dems think they have held on in Southport.

    That would be surprising. I suppose that they may have fought 20 by-elections up and down the country.
    Actually it's 24 of which two I never expected in scotland
  • DougieDougie Posts: 57
    *Bites nails to the quick*

    And we only get the BBC Scotland election programme here in Edinburgh until about half 12...
  • it's nearly 4am here. are we all watching the Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    ITV "as the clock ticks down to the close of the boles"....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,384
    GIN1138 said:

    I wonder what's happened to SeanT?

    Hey, Sean T, don't worry! Me and my squad of ultimate PB Tories will protect you! Check it out! Independently targeting particle beam phalanx. Wvap! Fry half a Labour marginal with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phase-plasma pulse rifles, RPGs, we got sonic electronic ball breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks... election flyers, knocker-uppers...
  • Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169
    jonny83 said:

    Paul Waugh‏Verified account @paulwaugh 35s35 seconds ago

    Lab sources say things looking very bad for the party in Yorkshire, N East, Midlands. + Some NWest marginals. But some surprises elsewhere

    Canterbury!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Is it tempting fate to get the champagne out now?

    Yes. Don't.
    The exit poll could be +/- 20 seats each way for the Tories and Labour.

    Hence, "long night" if initial forecasts are for a majority of only 40..
    That was the case in 1987. They're usually pretty accurate these days.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    Aaaargh here we go
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Should I be watching BBC ITV or Sky:?
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    So nervous
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    Off the top of my head

    Con 410

    Lab 150

    SNP 45

    Vote for Hard Brexit.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Did some GOTV phone banking for the first time this evening. If the old dears are all turning out to vote, that certainly isn't the case in Oxfordshire. Met with a barrage of can't-be-arsedness.

    Meanwhile, our local Co-op has started selling some startlingly good local cider, so on with the Beeb and out with the bottles.

    Was this in OXWAB? If it was in Henley/Wantage/Witney etc, I can't blame them.
  • payniepaynie Posts: 3
    All ready here. Beer. Peanuts. Crisps. Wife in bed.
  • Libs also confident in Carshalton and Wallington
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Grouse at the ready....
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    rcs1000 said:

    My assistant today told me proudly that she had voted Labour to stand up to Brexit. I asked her what constituency she was in. She didn't know. I asked for her postcode.

    She was in Vauxhall.

    Did you have the heart to tell her?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Let's get the show on the road!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Andrew said:

    PeterC said:

    In Rome. Holed up in some luxury hotel.

    Smart move, before the momentum redshirts come to arrest him in the morning.
    For seducing their women?
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Hearing turnout could be close to 70% - have the youths turned out for Corbyn? #GE2017

    Yes, if that is right. But they key would still be did the elderly remain loyal to the Tories by a large amount.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    When's the final ICM due? Can only see provisionals.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Looks like Labour have done well in London at least.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: Hearing turnout could be close to 70% - have the youths turned out for Corbyn? #GE2017

    Blimey. Well I've bought turnout at £40 over 63
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    edited June 2017

    Owen jones doesn't sound too confident on twitter

    good, good
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,993
    I should say I voted Lib Dem (reluctantly). Corbyn? He appears to have no filter for the company he keeps.

    I'll say Tory majority of 90. (Prepare to look stupid later on).
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    I might have to go out of the room for these final few minutes and then come back in.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Is it tempting fate to get the champagne out now?

    Yes. Don't.
    The exit poll could be +/- 20 seats each way for the Tories and Labour.

    Hence, "long night" if initial forecasts are for a majority of only 40..
    That was the case in 1987. They're usually pretty accurate these days.
    However the probable lack of UNS will make it less accurate today.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Having flashbacks to 2015 with the music :D
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894

    rcs1000 said:

    My assistant today told me proudly that she had voted Labour to stand up to Brexit. I asked her what constituency she was in. She didn't know. I asked for her postcode.

    She was in Vauxhall.

    Did you have the heart to tell her?
    It makes me hopeful that I will be collecting from a bunch of PBers.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Is it tempting fate to get the champagne out now?

    Yes. Don't.
    The exit poll could be +/- 20 seats each way for the Tories and Labour.

    Hence, "long night" if initial forecasts are for a majority of only 40..
    That was the case in 1987. They're usually pretty accurate these days.
    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Is it tempting fate to get the champagne out now?

    Yes. Don't.
    The exit poll could be +/- 20 seats each way for the Tories and Labour.

    Hence, "long night" if initial forecasts are for a majority of only 40..
    That was the case in 1987. They're usually pretty accurate these days.
    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Is it tempting fate to get the champagne out now?

    Yes. Don't.
    The exit poll could be +/- 20 seats each way for the Tories and Labour.

    Hence, "long night" if initial forecasts are for a majority of only 40..
    That was the case in 1987. They're usually pretty accurate these days.
    2015 exit poll was showing a hung Parliament with the Tories on about 315 or so.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nothing much going on, is there?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Is it tempting fate to get the champagne out now?

    Yes. Don't.
    The exit poll could be +/- 20 seats each way for the Tories and Labour.

    Hence, "long night" if initial forecasts are for a majority of only 40..
    That was the case in 1987. They're usually pretty accurate these days.
    Tory seats were off by 15 in GE2015 and Labour seats off by 7.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Evening everyone. Just had a cold shower.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    edited June 2017
    Broxtowe Labour called it a day at 9.30. I spent all day in the most working-class part of the seat. Impressions:

    - The general feeling wasn't awful but it wasn't great either - around 15% of people who were last known as Labour (some from old canvass data) no longer were, including a few who switched in the last few days (Sun/Mail effect). It reminded me a bit of 2015 in that way.

    - Youth turnout in the university area was apparently huge - I heard of one man in a queue with 20 young voters who said wryly "this is what I was afraid of!"

    - There was some residual anti-Corbyn voters from lifelong Labour people - maybe 5% of our expected vote.

    Overall: didn't feel like a gain, and made me think the national picture will be at the upper end of expectations for the Tories, despite the genuine youth surge.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    Any by-election interest tonight?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,216
    I will be on Sky most of the night but this moment belongs to Dimblebore...Its tradition.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    may i just second those congratulating Mike and Robert Smithson for this wonderful site i've been on and off here for over ten years lurking mainly and it's been the best source in the UK for political geeks and election addicts thank you to for all the contributors and especially TSE and moderators. anyway strap in boys and girls it's gonna be one helluva ride
  • Time for an AV thread??
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    ITV coverage right now hinting at another dramatic exit poll for me.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Paynie and Mr. Liberal.

    Two minutes.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Dream team on Sky
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Farron might in trouble
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    *ITV
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    Where's Paddy Ashdown?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Nothing much going on, is there?

    We're out of the America's cup.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    Chris_A said:

    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Is it tempting fate to get the champagne out now?

    Yes. Don't.
    The exit poll could be +/- 20 seats each way for the Tories and Labour.

    Hence, "long night" if initial forecasts are for a majority of only 40..
    That was the case in 1987. They're usually pretty accurate these days.
    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Is it tempting fate to get the champagne out now?

    Yes. Don't.
    The exit poll could be +/- 20 seats each way for the Tories and Labour.

    Hence, "long night" if initial forecasts are for a majority of only 40..
    That was the case in 1987. They're usually pretty accurate these days.
    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Is it tempting fate to get the champagne out now?

    Yes. Don't.
    The exit poll could be +/- 20 seats each way for the Tories and Labour.

    Hence, "long night" if initial forecasts are for a majority of only 40..
    That was the case in 1987. They're usually pretty accurate these days.
    2015 exit poll was showing a hung Parliament with the Tories on about 315 or so.
    316 but it looked too good for the Tories!
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    James Reed‏ @JamesReedYP 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Hearing Lib Dems are worried about Farron and perhaps Greg Mulholland too
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Balls and Osborne on ITV lol!
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,409

    Nothing much going on, is there?

    Calm seas and a prosperous voyage?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,384

    Time for an AV thread??

    Adult Video???
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Nothing much going on, is there?

    Time for a quick AV thread?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    My F5 key is going to hate me by sunrise...
  • hmm, apparently I can't watch BBC News as I'm not in the UK. Anyone got a stream?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,216
    hunchman said:

    Balls and Osborne on ITV lol!

    Switching to that after the exit poll.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,193
    paynie said:

    All ready here. Beer. Peanuts. Crisps. Wife in bed.

    Ditto :-)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    One fucking minute.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'm going for Con 380, Lab 190.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Broxtowe Labour called it a day at 9.30. I spent all day in the most working-class part of the seat. Impressions:

    - The general feeling wasn't awful but it wasn't great either - around 15% of people who were last known as Labour (some from old canvass data) no longer where, including a few who switched in the last few days (Sun/Mail effect). It reminded me a bit of 2015 in that way.

    - Youth turnout in the university area was apparently huge - I heard of one man in a queue with 20 young voters who said wryly "this is what I was afraid of!"

    - There was some residual anti-Corbyn voters from lifelong Labour people - maybe 5% of our expected vote.

    Overall: didn't feel like a gain, and made me think the national picture will be at the upper end of expectations for the Tories, despite the genuine youth surge.

    Thanks for the honest post Nick.

    I was in Soton Test. I don't think we've done it; and the first time I got shouted at by a Labour voter!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,318
    30 seconds left guys! Back in London just for this!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    jonny83 said:

    James Reed‏ @JamesReedYP 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Hearing Lib Dems are worried about Farron and perhaps Greg Mulholland too

    Surely they should be the other way round?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Starting with BBC, channel hopping when there are idiot interviewees.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    jonny83 said:

    James Reed‏ @JamesReedYP 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    Hearing Lib Dems are worried about Farron and perhaps Greg Mulholland too

    Lib Dem rumours are all over the shop
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Is there time to evacuate my bladder


    OK probably not
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,318
    Butterflies every single time!
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Good luck with your bets, folks!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,768
    ROFLMAO
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894

    Farron might in trouble

    The perfect result for the LDs would be 15 seats and no Farron.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    Holy fuck.........
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Wow.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    SHIT
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    wow
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,318
    Oh shit.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,283
    Oh fuck.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    oh shit
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    BOOM!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    OH my GOD!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,384
    FUCK
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Shit
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Oh my god. The Con number. The SNP number.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Holy fuck!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Oh shite.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Wow
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Bedwetting time!
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    14 LDs No majority
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    OMG!!!!!!!!!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,384
    All the best to you PB punters!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,318
    Holy shit!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    OMG!
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    kyf_100 said:

    Good luck with your bets, folks!

    Unless laid mine, of course...
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    SNP 34???
This discussion has been closed.