For those Remainers who think Brexit will be a disaster - just imagine a post-Brexit Britain with Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbot at the helm...
Fucking hell, Farron really is a pathetic little weasel of a loser. Any non-idiotic Lib Dem leader of the last twenty years would have agreed with Corbyn's very reasonable points that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that aiding and abetting jihadis in Syria and Libya might not be a recipe for making us safer at home.
I love the panicking hard right media like Tim Shipman desperately trying to equate the Tories with Britain. Newsflash - a lot of people think the Tories are destroying everything they love about this country, and that the patriotic answer is to try and get them the hell out of government.
Weak and Wobbly May's Conservatives - best friend of sunni jihadis everywhere.
Mr Wisemann
Are you saying that British foreign policy is the cause of terrorism rather than the New Statesman's claim that in July 2013, the European Parliament identified Wahhabism as the main source of global terrorism?
For those Remainers who think Brexit will be a disaster - just imagine a post-Brexit Britain with Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbot at the helm...
5 million unemployed, anyone?
A chaotic hung Parliament would suit me nicely. Something that resembles the closing scenes of Blazing Saddles for the next five years.
Jeremy Corbyn will take his original slot on Friday 26th May at 7pm, in what was originally meant to be the last of the interviews, while Nuttall, Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron's episodes will take place over the following days.
On 28th May at 6pm, Neil will interview SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon.
This will be followed by Ukip's Paul Nuttall on 29th May at 7.30pm, and Lib Dem leader Tim Farron at 7pm on 1st June, according to the editor of the BBC's Daily & Sunday Politics Robbie Gibb.
Andrew Neil has an opportunity to change this election round, if he can get under Corbyn's skin tonight.
It is Corbyn's biggest test since he assumed the leadership - and it has scope to be car-crash telly. A bit difficult for Jeremy to play the affable old duffer when being quizzed about giving succour to those who murder....
For those Remainers who think Brexit will be a disaster - just imagine a post-Brexit Britain with Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbot at the helm...
5 million unemployed, anyone?
Liam Fox or Diane Abbott in charge of Brexit is the political equivalent of Sophie's choice.
No it isn't. And for the record it was your friends who lost the referendum. And I speak as a Cameron fan myself.
Jeremy Corbyn will take his original slot on Friday 26th May at 7pm, in what was originally meant to be the last of the interviews, while Nuttall, Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron's episodes will take place over the following days.
On 28th May at 6pm, Neil will interview SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon.
This will be followed by Ukip's Paul Nuttall on 29th May at 7.30pm, and Lib Dem leader Tim Farron at 7pm on 1st June, according to the editor of the BBC's Daily & Sunday Politics Robbie Gibb.
Unusual for a non politician to have as much potential influence over the country's future as Andrew Neil has today.
Re Social care, I was brought up on an estate next door to a massive old people's hospital, called St George's, in Hornchurch. We used to have to visit the patients as school kids. This place has been closed for years and is currently being used as an anti terror training camp! The 'bomb' that went off yesterday while I was sitting in my parents back garden nearly gave me a heart attack
Seems to me this is where old people w dementia used to be looked after. Why is no one proposing free state care for them?
Because government spending absolutely has to be very high. Politically impossible for it not to be. NHS, schools, ageing population, security etc
Yet any attempt to address this, to raise some more tax, e.g. the (admittedly shambolically handled) Tory care plans, immediately result in a massive popularity plunge.
Reality is not a vote winner. Comedy unfunded giveways are.
So Labour's proposals are for the highest taxes since the days of rationing, as well as £40-£60bn a year of extra borrowing. That's not even close to adding up and they should be hammered on it every day from now until the election.
The Conservative social care policy was right, it's completely collapsing and had been pushed down the road for decades now. It's a sad indictment that the public just want free owls and someone else to pay for them
As Mikey P put it last night, the state is not there to guarantee the inheritance of middle class 50 & 60 year olds
Nonetheless it's a particularly imbecilic strategy to introduce a policy mid way through a General Election campaign that simultaneously hits both home owners and anyone who hopes to inherit at some stage. Particularly from a party which prides itself historically on encouraging home ownership.
For those Remainers who think Brexit will be a disaster - just imagine a post-Brexit Britain with Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbot at the helm...
Who LBC choose to employ is a commercial matter for them. I never listen to it anyway, largely because they specialise in empty vessels who make a lot of sound.
I sometimes listen to Ian Dale because he has a quiet voice and does not yell at listeners like a demented maniac.
Because government spending absolutely has to be very high. Politically impossible for it not to be. NHS, schools, ageing population, security etc
Yet any attempt to address this, to raise some more tax, e.g. the (admittedly shambolically handled) Tory care plans, immediately result in a massive popularity plunge.
Reality is not a vote winner. Comedy unfunded giveways are.
So Labour's proposals are for the highest taxes since the days of rationing, as well as £40-£60bn a year of extra borrowing. That's not even close to adding up and they should be hammered on it every day from now until the election.
The Conservative social care policy was right, it's completely collapsing and had been pushed down the road for decades now. It's a sad indictment that the public just want free owls and someone else to pay for them
As Mikey P put it last night, the state is not there to guarantee the inheritance of middle class 50 & 60 year olds
Unfortunately this is true. The actual proposals were/are fair and well balanced and could be said to leave the vast majority... those with little capital ... better off.
Jeremy Corbyn will take his original slot on Friday 26th May at 7pm, in what was originally meant to be the last of the interviews, while Nuttall, Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron's episodes will take place over the following days.
On 28th May at 6pm, Neil will interview SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon.
This will be followed by Ukip's Paul Nuttall on 29th May at 7.30pm, and Lib Dem leader Tim Farron at 7pm on 1st June, according to the editor of the BBC's Daily & Sunday Politics Robbie Gibb.
Unusual for a non politician to have as much potential influence over the country's future as Andrew Neil has today.
Do we actually have viewing figures on these?
There is also the Paxman interview/audience questions for May and Corbyn on the 29th, and then a Question Time special on 2nd June.
Because government spending absolutely has to be very high. Politically impossible for it not to be. NHS, schools, ageing population, security etc
Yet any attempt to address this, to raise some more tax, e.g. the (admittedly shambolically handled) Tory care plans, immediately result in a massive popularity plunge.
Reality is not a vote winner. Comedy unfunded giveways are.
So Labour's proposals are for the highest taxes since the days of rationing, as well as £40-£60bn a year of extra borrowing. That's not even close to adding up and they should be hammered on it every day from now until the election.
The Conservative social care policy was right, it's completely collapsing and had been pushed down the road for decades now. It's a sad indictment that the public just want free owls and someone else to pay for them
As Mikey P put it last night, the state is not there to guarantee the inheritance of middle class 50 & 60 year olds
Fucking hell, Farron really is a pathetic little weasel of a loser. Any non-idiotic Lib Dem leader of the last twenty years would have agreed with Corbyn's very reasonable points that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that aiding and abetting jihadis in Syria and Libya might not be a recipe for making us safer at home.
I love the panicking hard right media like Tim Shipman desperately trying to equate the Tories with Britain. Newsflash - a lot of people think the Tories are destroying everything they love about this country, and that the patriotic answer is to try and get them the hell out of government.
Weak and Wobbly May's Conservatives - best friend of sunni jihadis everywhere.
Mr Wisemann
Are you saying that British foreign policy is the cause of terrorism rather than the New Statesman's claim that in July 2013, the European Parliament identified Wahhabism as the main source of global terrorism?
Because government spending absolutely has to be very high. Politically impossible for it not to be. NHS, schools, ageing population, security etc
Yet any attempt to address this, to raise some more tax, e.g. the (admittedly shambolically handled) Tory care plans, immediately result in a massive popularity plunge.
Reality is not a vote winner. Comedy unfunded giveways are.
So Labour's proposals are for the highest taxes since the days of rationing, as well as £40-£60bn a year of extra borrowing. That's not even close to adding up and they should be hammered on it every day from now until the election.
The Conservative social care policy was right, it's completely collapsing and had been pushed down the road for decades now. It's a sad indictment that the public just want free owls and someone else to pay for them
As Mikey P put it last night, the state is not there to guarantee the inheritance of middle class 50 & 60 year olds
Nonetheless it's a particularly imbecilic strategy to introduce a policy mid way through a General Election campaign that simultaneously hits both home owners and anyone who hopes to inherit at some stage. Particularly from a party which prides itself historically on encouraging home ownership.
So imbecilic that the party is STILL polling WAY above the Cambornites ever managed to achieve in an election.
Mrs May has political capital. She is spending it.
Jeremy Corbyn will take his original slot on Friday 26th May at 7pm, in what was originally meant to be the last of the interviews, while Nuttall, Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron's episodes will take place over the following days.
On 28th May at 6pm, Neil will interview SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon.
This will be followed by Ukip's Paul Nuttall on 29th May at 7.30pm, and Lib Dem leader Tim Farron at 7pm on 1st June, according to the editor of the BBC's Daily & Sunday Politics Robbie Gibb.
Unusual for a non politician to have as much potential influence over the country's future as Andrew Neil has today.
These interviewers have always had power - you just have to hope they use it impartially and hold politicians properly to account. Paxman was the same and Robin Day interviews used to be considered very powerful 'tests' of the calibre of politicians. The problem today is that too many of the politicians fail the test.
Well as from comments on here yesterday , the next Yougov poll seems to consist almost entirely of pb Conservative posters anything less than a massive rebound in the Conservative lead will be surprising . I seem to recall that the polls are so truly representative of the electorate as a whole that TSE has taken part in 2 or 3 of those reporting tomorrow night .
That, or this one was a bit of an outlier.
Seems that TSE and other pb Conservatives were not polled in the latest poll so yes a bit of an oulier .
I was polled in this YouGov poll.
So you're wrong.
I'm shocked!
It surely points to the flaw in yougovs methodology. ..
Fucking hell, Farron really is a pathetic little weasel of a loser. Any non-idiotic Lib Dem leader of the last twenty years would have agreed with Corbyn's very reasonable points that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that aiding and abetting jihadis in Syria and Libya might not be a recipe for making us safer at home.
I love the panicking hard right media like Tim Shipman desperately trying to equate the Tories with Britain. Newsflash - a lot of people think the Tories are destroying everything they love about this country, and that the patriotic answer is to try and get them the hell out of government.
Weak and Wobbly May's Conservatives - best friend of sunni jihadis everywhere.
Mr Wisemann
Are you saying that British foreign policy is the cause of terrorism rather than the New Statesman's claim that in July 2013, the European Parliament identified Wahhabism as the main source of global terrorism?
Britain's foreign policy, especially under Weak & Wobbly May and her predecessor (anyone remember him?), is inextricably linked in a loving symbiotic embrace with Saudi Arabia's poisonous global jihad. Corbyn is the only suggesting we turn away from that evil country.
Because government spending absolutely has to be very high. Politically impossible for it not to be. NHS, schools, ageing population, security etc
Yet any attempt to address this, to raise some more tax, e.g. the (admittedly shambolically handled) Tory care plans, immediately result in a massive popularity plunge.
Reality is not a vote winner. Comedy unfunded giveways are.
So Labour's proposals are for the highest taxes since the days of rationing, as well as £40-£60bn a year of extra borrowing. That's not even close to adding up and they should be hammered on it every day from now until the election.
The Conservative social care policy was right, it's completely collapsing and had been pushed down the road for decades now. It's a sad indictment that the public just want free owls and someone else to pay for them
As Mikey P put it last night, the state is not there to guarantee the inheritance of middle class 50 & 60 year olds
Portillo was completely right of course, and it was interesting to see the reaction of both Neil and Johnson to his comment about inheritance.
Corbyn's Labour, of course, don't want to discriminate, they want to tax everyone's house, during life as well as after death.
UKIP's Suzanne Evans' response was so awful I had to mute the tv. Reeked of naive opportunism.
If everyone were taxed to pay for the NHS to build nursing homes for dementia patients, that would be ok I guess. Doesn't seem right that dementia sufferers pay did treatment while everything else is free .
Because government spending absolutely has to be very high. Politically impossible for it not to be. NHS, schools, ageing population, security etc
Yet any attempt to address this, to raise some more tax, e.g. the (admittedly shambolically handled) Tory care plans, immediately result in a massive popularity plunge.
Reality is not a vote winner. Comedy unfunded giveways are.
So Labour's proposals are for the highest taxes since the days of rationing, as well as £40-£60bn a year of extra borrowing. That's not even close to adding up and they should be hammered on it every day from now until the election.
The Conservative social care policy was right, it's completely collapsing and had been pushed down the road for decades now. It's a sad indictment that the public just want free owls and someone else to pay for them
As Mikey P put it last night, the state is not there to guarantee the inheritance of middle class 50 & 60 year olds
Nonetheless it's a particularly imbecilic strategy to introduce a policy mid way through a General Election campaign that simultaneously hits both home owners and anyone who hopes to inherit at some stage. Particularly from a party which prides itself historically on encouraging home ownership.
No, because if you introduce it half-way through a Parliament, you won’t get it past the baying hordes who will say this was not in the manifesto.
There is no good time to talk about social care policy. That is why nothing has been done for decades, even though the present system is far worse than anything Theresa has proposed.
The present system itself is bankrupting Councils & can’t continue for another 5 years.
( I am not a May fan, & won’t be voting Tory -- but Theresa deserves credit for this).
< Portillo was completely right of course, and it was interesting to see the reaction of both Neil and Johnson to his comment about inheritance.
Corbyn's Labour, of course, don't want to discriminate, they want to tax everyone's house, during life as well as after death.
Personally it seems fairer that's everyone with an inheritance pays a bit rather than hose unfortunate to get sick pay a lot more. But credit to May for coming out and saying it.
It is absolute what he stands for and arguably what he cares more passionately about than anything else. Let him say it; let him make his point. Let the people decide.
Corbyn is not blaming Britain he is saying these outrageous Acts are pure evil.
Only a Moron would claim our Foreign policy hasnt contributed to making the world a less safe place and created more environments Libya for example where such Evil can flourish.
I remember Ken Clarke warning of this in the Iraq debate.
He was right. A Ken Clarke Tory Party would be miles ahead
We didn't act in Syria and Syria is going brilliantly. There are costs to inaction as well as action.
Charles Clarke made exactly that point on Newnsight yesterday - I was quite impressed by his contribution; knowledgeable, calm and well-reasoned. The fact that I felt that way is a fairly damning indictment of the current batch of politicians; of all persuasions.
Charles Clarke the best Labour leader that never was?
Because government spending absolutely has to be very high. Politically impossible for it not to be. NHS, schools, ageing population, security etc
Yet any attempt to address this, to raise some more tax, e.g. the (admittedly shambolically handled) Tory care plans, immediately result in a massive popularity plunge.
Reality is not a vote winner. Comedy unfunded giveways are.
So Labour's proposals are for the highest taxes since the days of rationing, as well as £40-£60bn a year of extra borrowing. That's not even close to adding up and they should be hammered on it every day from now until the election.
The Conservative social care policy was right, it's completely collapsing and had been pushed down the road for decades now. It's a sad indictment that the public just want free owls and someone else to pay for them
As Mikey P put it last night, the state is not there to guarantee the inheritance of middle class 50 & 60 year olds
Nonetheless it's a particularly imbecilic strategy to introduce a policy mid way through a General Election campaign that simultaneously hits both home owners and anyone who hopes to inherit at some stage. Particularly from a party which prides itself historically on encouraging home ownership.
Quite. And to do so without apparently having worked out the details - or even anticipated the objections and counter-arguments - smacks of complacency, naivety, arrogance or a combination of all three.
Allegedly, the only cabinet minister consulted was Jeremy Hunt. Was Crosby ?
But when you write TMay not living up to expectations one has to ask what was it in May's at best unremarkable stint at the Home Office, where she cut police numbers but not immigration (or even non-EU immigration) that led to raised expectations?
Did you not see the warning signs in the leadership election where May evinced no great vision but was last minister standing after Gove blew up both Boris's and his own campaigns -- and even then she had to be saved by a backroom stitch-up from an election against Andrea (who?) Leadsom.
I agree - essentially, May appeared without trace.
She is ruthless, but essentially unprincipled. I don't mean that as a euphemism for "horrible", but in the literal sense that she holds no principles or views especially dear, and hence will assume or abandon any policy position, as seems convenient. There is no sense at all that she sought power to do or accomplish anything in particular, so now she has it she just aims to look a bit different to her predecessors within a right-of-centreish wrapper.
So we have seen from her:
- that Leave would be a disaster (2016) followed by vote for me if you want to Leave properly; - a manifesto commitment on self-employed NI in 2015, followed by its abandonment in 2017, followed by its instant reversal; - monstering of Ed Miliband's 2015 energy price cap policy followed by adoption of it in 2017; and most recently, - same-day capitulation on social care.
The absence of principle ends up looking like vacillating indecision. She is not really PM material at all, IMHO. She is a sort of a vicious jelly.
Re Social care, I was brought up on an estate next door to a massive old people's hospital, called St George's, in Hornchurch. We used to have to visit the patients as school kids. This place has been closed for years and is currently being used as an anti terror training camp! The 'bomb' that went off yesterday while I was sitting in my parents back garden nearly gave me a heart attack
Seems to me this is where old people w dementia used to be looked after. Why is no one proposing free state care for them?
Whatever we do with the system it has to make sense to plan ahead and try to create the leanest, most efficient provision. Maybe the market can do that, maybe it can't. I'd have to look at the detail.
It's also striking that proper old folks homes would take some pressure off NHS Trusts - I've also seen some some studies which such suggest that an old person admitted to hospital will just get worse (no stimulation and they come to rely on care) so a more independent form of living is much better for them too.
It's not wrong to want to unlock some of the obscene equity in our houses, but I think the business case probably stacks up for the state to play a role in old folks' care as a spend to save measure for the NHS.
Jeremy Corbyn will take his original slot on Friday 26th May at 7pm, in what was originally meant to be the last of the interviews, while Nuttall, Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron's episodes will take place over the following days.
On 28th May at 6pm, Neil will interview SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon.
This will be followed by Ukip's Paul Nuttall on 29th May at 7.30pm, and Lib Dem leader Tim Farron at 7pm on 1st June, according to the editor of the BBC's Daily & Sunday Politics Robbie Gibb.
Andrew Neil has an opportunity to change this election round, if he can get under Corbyn's skin tonight.
It is Corbyn's biggest test since he assumed the leadership - and it has scope to be car-crash telly. A bit difficult for Jeremy to play the affable old duffer when being quizzed about giving succour to those who murder....
Corbyn is unlikely to be much troubled by Neil because he's honest and coherent. Neil specializes in exposing hypocrisy.
For those Remainers who think Brexit will be a disaster - just imagine a post-Brexit Britain with Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbot at the helm...
5 million unemployed, anyone?
I have imagined it, which is one reason I didn't vote for the first...
Yet still the leavers want to blame those who warned them.
Because government spending absolutely has to be very high. Politically impossible for it not to be. NHS, schools, ageing population, security etc
Yet any attempt to address this, to raise some more tax, e.g. the (admittedly shambolically handled) Tory care plans, immediately result in a massive popularity plunge.
Reality is not a vote winner. Comedy unfunded giveways are.
So Labour's proposals are for the highest taxes since the days of rationing, as well as £40-£60bn a year of extra borrowing. That's not even close to adding up and they should be hammered on it every day from now until the election.
The Conservative social care policy was right, it's completely collapsing and had been pushed down the road for decades now. It's a sad indictment that the public just want free owls and someone else to pay for them
As Mikey P put it last night, the state is not there to guarantee the inheritance of middle class 50 & 60 year olds
Unfortunately this is true. The actual proposals were/are fair and well balanced and could be said to leave the vast majority... those with little capital ... better off.
Absolutely. For me, the most annoying thing about this election is what looks like a u-turn on this. There should have been a senior minister on and radio programme for three days explaining and defending the policy. They'd have looked like adults for addressing the issue, the burned political capital in the wealthy (and safe) south of England more than balanced by the positive reaction among the Midlands JAMs.
On the matter of Jeremy Corbyn's foreign policy positions, I think he is right to do it at a time of his choosing rather than wait for the Tories to try and throw a bucket of shit over him in the final days of the election campaign.
It was dumb as ****. Even if you think the policy itself is good, the manner of its introduction (no kite-flying, no examination of pros and cons, done last minute in the teeth of protest just ahead of polling day) was unforgivably stupid.
What to say about this latest OP. Outlier? Overstating? Or just the plain truth and us Tory supporters refusing to believe it?
The Tories have had a woeful campaign so far, I don't think anyone would deny that. Here's some sugestions to get their campaign back on track -
1. Take steps to clarify, or amend, the social care proposal. Something on the lines of 'we will introduce a lifetime cap, subject to further consultation, of around50-75k. That will at least calm the nerves of the oldies who started to waver. They have to give a ball park figure, otherwise the vacuum of uncertainty will remain.
2. Same with the WFP. 'Nobody earning less than.....£.... will have to pay. We will also ensure there is a taper so that there is no cliff edge'. Simple. You don't need to consult for years to wrap this policy up. Again, it creates a vacuum if left alone.
3. Stop this fucking pussy footing around Corbyn. Explain, in clear and concise language, that he is a threat to our national security, and an even bigger threat to the UK economy. It cannot be that difficult considering what he is.
4. Ram it home again and again to the public that two thirds of the MPs in his own party wanted to have him removed.
All of this stuff is common sense, and it should have been nailed on the very first day of the campaign.
But when you write TMay not living up to expectations one has to ask what was it in May's at best unremarkable stint at the Home Office, where she cut police numbers but not immigration (or even non-EU immigration) that led to raised expectations?
Did you not see the warning signs in the leadership election where May evinced no great vision but was last minister standing after Gove blew up both Boris's and his own campaigns -- and even then she had to be saved by a backroom stitch-up from an election against Andrea (who?) Leadsom.
I agree - essentially, May appeared without trace.
She is ruthless, but essentially unprincipled. I don't mean that as a euphemism for "horrible", but in the literal sense that she holds no principles or views especially dear, and hence will assume or abandon any policy position, as seems convenient. There is no sense at all that she sought power to do or accomplish anything in particular, so now she has it she just aims to look a bit different to her predecessors within a right-of-centreish wrapper.
So we have seen from her:
- that Leave would be a disaster (2016) followed by vote for me if you want to Leave properly; - a manifesto commitment on self-employed NI in 2015, followed by its abandonment in 2017, followed by its instant reversal; - monstering of Ed Miliband's 2015 energy price cap policy followed by adoption of it in 2017; and most recently, - same-day capitulation on social care.
The absence of principle ends up looking like vacillating indecision. She is not really PM material at all, IMHO. She is a sort of a vicious jelly.
Because government spending absolutely has to be very high. Politically impossible for it not to be. NHS, schools, ageing population, security etc
Yet any attempt to address this, to raise some more tax, e.g. the (admittedly shambolically handled) Tory care plans, immediately result in a massive popularity plunge.
Reality is not a vote winner. Comedy unfunded giveways are.
So Labour's proposals are for the highest taxes since the days of rationing, as well as £40-£60bn a year of extra borrowing. That's not even close to adding up and they should be hammered on it every day from now until the election.
The Conservative social care policy was right, it's completely collapsing and had been pushed down the road for decades now. It's a sad indictment that the public just want free owls and someone else to pay for them
As Mikey P put it last night, the state is not there to guarantee the inheritance of middle class 50 & 60 year olds
Nonetheless it's a particularly imbecilic strategy to introduce a policy mid way through a General Election campaign that simultaneously hits both home owners and anyone who hopes to inherit at some stage. Particularly from a party which prides itself historically on encouraging home ownership.
So imbecilic that the party is STILL polling WAY above the Cambornites ever managed to achieve in an election.
Mrs May has political capital. She is spending it.
I'm looking forward to election night immensely.
My head tells me the Conservatives should still win this pretty easily (I'll be doing some canvassing tomorrow, so I can form my own impression). Despite the hit over social care, Theresa May remains personally far ahead of Jeremy Corbyn, and the Conservatives are far ahead on the economy, immigration, Brexit, law and order etc.
But, I'm not going to forgive Theresa May for making my blood pressure rise. The thought of Corbyn, Abbot, McDonnell and their followers in charge of this country is horrifying.
Because government spending absolutely has to be very high. Politically impossible for it not to be. NHS, schools, ageing population, security etc
Yet any attempt to address this, to raise some more tax, e.g. the (admittedly shambolically handled) Tory care plans, immediately result in a massive popularity plunge.
Reality is not a vote winner. Comedy unfunded giveways are.
So Labour's proposals are for the highest taxes since the days of rationing, as well as £40-£60bn a year of extra borrowing. That's not even close to adding up and they should be hammered on it every day from now until the election.
The Conservative social care policy was right, it's completely collapsing and had been pushed down the road for decades now. It's a sad indictment that the public just want free owls and someone else to pay for them
As Mikey P put it last night, the state is not there to guarantee the inheritance of middle class 50 & 60 year olds
Nonetheless it's a particularly imbecilic strategy to introduce a policy mid way through a General Election campaign that simultaneously hits both home owners and anyone who hopes to inherit at some stage. Particularly from a party which prides itself historically on encouraging home ownership.
So imbecilic that the party is STILL polling WAY above the Cambornites ever managed to achieve in an election.
Mrs May has political capital. She is spending it.
I'm looking forward to election night immensely.
Yeah I'm looking forward to it too and like you hoping for a Blue win even though I'm not overly enamoured with the current leadership, its competence or direction of travel.
As I pointed out to you yesterday. you really shouldn't compare Camerons polling with that of May post Brexit. However if you makes you feel warm inside cling to that dream.
As someone who deals in historical fact not fantasy you may want to digest the fact that Mrs May has somehow managed to see her lead shrink from 23 percent on the 21st April to 5 points last night.
On the matter of Jeremy Corbyn's foreign policy positions, I think he is right to do it at a time of his choosing rather than wait for the Tories to try and throw a bucket of shit over him in the final days of the election campaign.
Jeremy Corbyn will take his original slot on Friday 26th May at 7pm, in what was originally meant to be the last of the interviews, while Nuttall, Nicola Sturgeon and Tim Farron's episodes will take place over the following days.
On 28th May at 6pm, Neil will interview SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon.
This will be followed by Ukip's Paul Nuttall on 29th May at 7.30pm, and Lib Dem leader Tim Farron at 7pm on 1st June, according to the editor of the BBC's Daily & Sunday Politics Robbie Gibb.
Andrew Neil has an opportunity to change this election round, if he can get under Corbyn's skin tonight.
It is Corbyn's biggest test since he assumed the leadership - and it has scope to be car-crash telly. A bit difficult for Jeremy to play the affable old duffer when being quizzed about giving succour to those who murder....
Also he faces Paxo on Monday night (but then so does May)
One thing that is nagging away is that Momentum asked their members a while back to sign up to survey panels. Could YouGov have been infiltrated? You'd need thousands of people to sign up but not impossible...
Will be interesting to see if phone polls show any different.
It is absolute what he stands for and arguably what he cares more passionately about than anything else. Let him say it; let him make his point. Let the people decide.
Corbyn is not blaming Britain he is saying these outrageous Acts are pure evil.
Only a Moron would claim our Foreign policy hasnt contributed to making the world a less safe place and created more environments Libya for example where such Evil can flourish.
I remember Ken Clarke warning of this in the Iraq debate.
He was right. A Ken Clarke Tory Party would be miles ahead
We didn't act in Syria and Syria is going brilliantly. There are costs to inaction as well as action.
Yes we did. We, along with the US, Turkey and May's best Wahabi buddies in Saudi Arabia & Qatar, gave a huge amount of aid to the most vile and dangerous jihadis in Syria over many years for the simple reason that the secular pluralistic government of Assad was an inconvenience to our establishment's money-making plans for the region. Our interventions in Syria (by jihadi proxy) and Libya (both directly and by jihadi proxy) have made us much less safe. If we had gone ahead and bombed Assad, the mortal enemy of jihadis in the Levant, turning Syria in to Libya squared, we would be far less safe still.
Crazy the ignorance on dispaly. This is what Corbyn is trying to tackle, and rightly so.
Weak & Wobbly May's Conservatives have been the fundamentalist Wahabi jihadis' greatest friend.
Fucking hell, Farron really is a pathetic little weasel of a loser. Any non-idiotic Lib Dem leader of the last twenty years would have agreed with Corbyn's very reasonable points that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that aiding and abetting jihadis in Syria and Libya might not be a recipe for making us safer at home.
I love the panicking hard right media like Tim Shipman desperately trying to equate the Tories with Britain. Newsflash - a lot of people think the Tories are destroying everything they love about this country, and that the patriotic answer is to try and get them the hell out of government.
Weak and Wobbly May's Conservatives - best friend of sunni jihadis everywhere.
Mr Wisemann
Are you saying that British foreign policy is the cause of terrorism rather than the New Statesman's claim that in July 2013, the European Parliament identified Wahhabism as the main source of global terrorism?
Britain's foreign policy, especially under Weak & Wobbly May and her predecessor (anyone remember him?), is inextricably linked in a loving symbiotic embrace with Saudi Arabia's poisonous global jihad. Corbyn is the only one suggesting we turn away from that evil country.
Well said. Trump is no better, in view of his recent visit to Riyadh.
Because government spending absolutely has to be very high. Politically impossible for it not to be. NHS, schools, ageing population, security etc
Yet any attempt to address this, to raise some more tax, e.g. the (admittedly shambolically handled) Tory care plans, immediately result in a massive popularity plunge.
Reality is not a vote winner. Comedy unfunded giveways are.
So Labour's proposals are for the highest taxes since the days of rationing, as well as £40-£60bn a year of extra borrowing. That's not even close to adding up and they should be hammered on it every day from now until the election.
The Conservative social care policy was right, it's completely collapsing and had been pushed down the road for decades now. It's a sad indictment that the public just want free owls and someone else to pay for them
As Mikey P put it last night, the state is not there to guarantee the inheritance of middle class 50 & 60 year olds
Nonetheless it's a particularly imbecilic strategy to introduce a policy mid way through a General Election campaign that simultaneously hits both home owners and anyone who hopes to inherit at some stage. Particularly from a party which prides itself historically on encouraging home ownership.
So imbecilic that the party is STILL polling WAY above the Cambornites ever managed to achieve in an election.
Mrs May has political capital. She is spending it.
Like a spendthrift lottery winner.
That anything from a 100 seat majority through to a hung parliament is conceivable, with less than two weeks to go to polling day is not reassuring.
Are the Conservatives going to get stuffed? Labour on 38% must mean almost 10% up in England and Wales, yes. Conservatives up 4% but a good bit of that comes from Scotland. It could mean a Labour minority government. Trouble for the Conservatives is that Mrs May is unelected, is poor in communication when put under pressure. The Labour campaign has been very, very good. Now Corbyn is backing Trident it does not leave much for the Cons. The IRA bit is history now the world has moved on. Also does this mean the Lib Dems could get some of their seats back. Will probably all turn round in 10 days but several people have said to me don't think I'll bother this time, they are not Labour folk.
It is absolute what he stands for and arguably what he cares more passionately about than anything else. Let him say it; let him make his point. Let the people decide.
Corbyn is not blaming Britain he is saying these outrageous Acts are pure evil.
Only a Moron would claim our Foreign policy hasnt contributed to making the world a less safe place and created more environments Libya for example where such Evil can flourish.
I remember Ken Clarke warning of this in the Iraq debate.
He was right. A Ken Clarke Tory Party would be miles ahead
We didn't act in Syria and Syria is going brilliantly. There are costs to inaction as well as action.
Yes we did. We, along with the US, Turkey and May's best Wahabi buddies in Saudi Arabia & Qatar, gave a huge amount of aid to the most vile and dangerous jihadis in Syria over many years for the simple reason that the secular pluarlistic government of Assad was an inconvenience to our establishment's money-making plans for the region. Our interventions in Syria (by jihadi proxy) and Libya (both directly and by jihadi proxy) have made us much less safe. If we had gone ahead and bombed Assad, the mortal enemy of jihadis in the Levant, turning Syria in to Libya squared, we would be far less safe still.
Crazy the ignorance on dispaly. This is what Corbyn is trying to tackle, and rightly so.
Weak & Wobbly May's Conservatives have been the fundamentalist Wahabi jihadis' greatest friend.
One thing that is nagging away is that Momentum asked their members a while back to sign up to survey panels. Could YouGov have been infiltrated? You'd need thousands of people to sign up but not impossible...
Will be interesting to see if phone polls show any different.
Christ. Now the Tories are borrowing the Corbynites' tin-foil-hats.
Desperate times, indeed.
Yeah, that theory doesn't make any sense. Why would it only be appearing now?
For those Remainers who think Brexit will be a disaster - just imagine a post-Brexit Britain with Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell and Diane Abbot at the helm...
5 million unemployed, anyone?
A chaotic hung Parliament would suit me nicely. Something that resembles the closing scenes of Blazing Saddles for the next five years.
One big problem Corbyn may face is if he is portrayed as giving up, surrendering to terror. I'm not advocating that approach but it would be dangerous for him if the narrative goes that way.
Because government spending absolutely has to be very high. Politically impossible for it not to be. NHS, schools, ageing population, security etc
Yet any attempt to address this, to raise some more tax, e.g. the (admittedly shambolically handled) Tory care plans, immediately result in a massive popularity plunge.
Reality is not a vote winner. Comedy unfunded giveways are.
So Labour's proposals are for the highest taxes since the days of rationing, as well as £40-£60bn a year of extra borrowing. That's not even close to adding up and they should be hammered on it every day from now until the election.
The Conservative social care policy was right, it's completely collapsing and had been pushed down the road for decades now. It's a sad indictment that the public just want free owls and someone else to pay for them
As Mikey P put it last night, the state is not there to guarantee the inheritance of middle class 50 & 60 year olds
Nonetheless it's a particularly imbecilic strategy to introduce a policy mid way through a General Election campaign that simultaneously hits both home owners and anyone who hopes to inherit at some stage. Particularly from a party which prides itself historically on encouraging home ownership.
So imbecilic that the party is STILL polling WAY above the Cambornites ever managed to achieve in an election.
Mrs May has political capital. She is spending it.
I'm looking forward to election night immensely.
Yeah I'm looking forward to it too and like you hoping for a Blue win even though I'm not overly enamoured with the current leadership, its competence or direction of travel.
As I pointed out to you yesterday. you really shouldn't compare Camerons polling with that of May post Brexit. However if you makes you feel warm inside cling to that dream.
As someone who deals in historical fact not fantasy you may want to digest the fact that Mrs May has somehow managed to see her lead shrink from 23 percent on the 21st April to 5 points last night.
All our bluff and bluster aside, do you honestly think Cameron would be polling so well after Brexit? I didn't understand the 'he doesn't connect with the average voter' accusation until the Brexit campaign, when it became clear he simply didn't get that people outside of London have different views to his social group.
I seriously don't think Cameron would be leading. I think he'd be flailing....
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
There was that kid who bet big on Corbyn to be PM? (For his sake I hope he has taken some insurance now)
What has surprised me with the terrible Tory campaign is how little the economy has featured. The Tories winning USP has been that they will take the necessary tough economic decisions. .
The Leave Brexit campaigned normalised fantasy economics, protectionism, sweeties for all and even the general unimportance of economic growth when set against emotional arguments.
There is no way the Tories can now pretend to be worried about the economy given the choices they have made in the past year.
It is absolute what he stands for and arguably what he cares more passionately about than anything else. Let him say it; let him make his point. Let the people decide.
Corbyn is not blaming Britain he is saying these outrageous Acts are pure evil.
Only a Moron would claim our Foreign policy hasnt contributed to making the world a less safe place and created more environments Libya for example where such Evil can flourish.
I remember Ken Clarke warning of this in the Iraq debate.
He was right. A Ken Clarke Tory Party would be miles ahead
We didn't act in Syria and Syria is going brilliantly. There are costs to inaction as well as action.
Yes we did. We, along with the US, Turkey and May's best Wahabi buddies in Saudi Arabia & Qatar, gave a huge amount of aid to the most vile and dangerous jihadis in Syria over many years for the simple reason that the secular pluarlistic government of Assad was an inconvenience to our establishment's money-making plans for the region. Our interventions in Syria (by jihadi proxy) and Libya (both directly and by jihadi proxy) have made us much less safe. If we had gone ahead and bombed Assad, the mortal enemy of jihadis in the Levant, turning Syria in to Libya squared, we would be far less safe still.
Crazy the ignorance on dispaly. This is what Corbyn is trying to tackle, and rightly so.
Weak & Wobbly May's Conservatives have been the fundamentalist Wahabi jihadis' greatest friend.
There are no easy answers in the Middle East. Assad's regime is vile, and has caused a humanitarian crisis in Syria. Gadaffi's regime was vile, and caused a humanitarian crisis in Libya. I'm prepared to accept that some of their opponents are even worse, for example IS, but Corbyn's view that we should just bury our heads in the sand is a cop out, not a policy.
Because government spending absolutely has to be very high. Politically impossible for it not to be. NHS, schools, ageing population, security etc
Yet any attempt to address this, to raise some more tax, e.g. the (admittedly shambolically handled) Tory care plans, immediately result in a massive popularity plunge.
Reality is not a vote winner. Comedy unfunded giveways are.
So Labour's proposals are for the highest taxes since the days of rationing, as well as £40-£60bn a year of extra borrowing. That's not even close to adding up and they should be hammered on it every day from now until the election.
The Conservative social care policy was right, it's completely collapsing and had been pushed down the road for decades now. It's a sad indictment that the public just want free owls and someone else to pay for them
As Mikey P put it last night, the state is not there to guarantee the inheritance of middle class 50 & 60 year olds
Nonetheless it's a particularly imbecilic strategy to introduce a policy mid way through a General Election campaign that simultaneously hits both home owners and anyone who hopes to inherit at some stage. Particularly from a party which prides itself historically on encouraging home ownership.
So imbecilic that the party is STILL polling WAY above the Cambornites ever managed to achieve in an election.
Mrs May has political capital. She is spending it.
I'm looking forward to election night immensely.
She has exercised her right to cancel the contract and asked for her political capital back, and she has got it. Sadly it has come back net of 90% handling charges.
The Leave Brexit campaigned normalised fantasy economics, protectionism, sweeties for all and even the general unimportance of economic growth when set against emotional arguments.
There is no way the Tories can now pretend to be worried about the economy given the choices they have made in the past year.
Yup, it's hard for this guy to accuse others of fantasy...
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
It has come to this. I've voted ABL for thirty years. Yet this year they offer me (well mainly my children( a clear and unequivocal £54k bung. I simply can;t decide whether I would be a lunatic to ever vote for Corbyn, or an absolute lunatic not to.
I though BREXIT was lunacy. Yet the sun keeps coming up every morning. I thought Trump was lunacy. Yet I see no change (yet) in the world. I can't be alone in thinking that when the doom-mongers tell us that a paradigm shift will be disastrous, maybe they're going to be wrong again.
Still, for the first time I am genuinely a floater.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
Yougov's approval ratings suggest that some people have done the same as you. A Yougov poll that was taken on Monday or Tuesday might have put Labour ahead.
I can see the 50 plus vote being very energised by a line something like 'imagine if we had ever said in winter 1940 that the war against Germany wasn't working' that's the sort of attack line the MSM will go with
One thing that is nagging away is that Momentum asked their members a while back to sign up to survey panels. Could YouGov have been infiltrated? You'd need thousands of people to sign up but not impossible...
Will be interesting to see if phone polls show any different.
Christ. Now the Tories are borrowing the Corbynites' tin-foil-hats.
Desperate times, indeed.
Just to point out I'm not a PB Tory. I'm looking for a reason why the numbers might not match the anecdotal evidence.
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
One thing I do know is that you jump to the tune of uncertainty. From leave to remain and from May to Corbyn. Ultimately the polls are a guide but not a measure of the result, there are numerous other factors are we need to trust our instinct. Mine tells me that if ordinary people without strong political allegiances in a time of relative certainty didn't vote for Miliband when pushed, then they are even less likely in a time of uncertainty to vote for Corbyn - and ordinary people are still the ones that win you elections.
It is absolute what he stands for and arguably what he cares more passionately about than anything else. Let him say it; let him make his point. Let the people decide.
Corbyn is not blaming Britain he is saying these outrageous Acts are pure evil.
Only a Moron would claim our Foreign policy hasnt contributed to making the world a less safe place and created more environments Libya for example where such Evil can flourish.
I remember Ken Clarke warning of this in the Iraq debate.
He was right. A Ken Clarke Tory Party would be miles ahead
We didn't act in Syria and Syria is going brilliantly. There are costs to inaction as well as action.
Yes we did. We, along with the US, Turkey and May's best Wahabi buddies in Saudi Arabia & Qatar, gave a huge amount of aid to the most vile and dangerous jihadis in Syria over many years for the simple reason that the secular pluarlistic government of Assad was an inconvenience to our establishment's money-making plans for the region. Our interventions in Syria (by jihadi proxy) and Libya (both directly and by jihadi proxy) have made us much less safe. If we had gone ahead and bombed Assad, the mortal enemy of jihadis in the Levant, turning Syria in to Libya squared, we would be far less safe still.
Crazy the ignorance on dispaly. This is what Corbyn is trying to tackle, and rightly so.
Weak & Wobbly May's Conservatives have been the fundamentalist Wahabi jihadis' greatest friend.
Well put.
Agreed. And Trump was recently in the Gulf chumming it with the sheikhs who are the main supporters of both Al Qaeda and Daesh.
There has beeen absolutely f***-all from Theresa May or the Tory media about tightening security at crowded events. It's all about "MI5 thwarted 17 similar attacks". Well they didn't thwart this one, did they? The true attitude of the elite in Britain is that these attacks are trash-on-trash, Poundland-on-Poundland, and, as Tory Brexiteer former MI6 chief Richard Dearlove openly says, the level of terrorist attacks is "manageable" and the country can cope with it continuing "indefinitely".
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
There was that kid who bet big on Corbyn to be PM? (For his sake I hope he has taken some insurance now)
I'm with SeanT. This is beyond belief. I literally can't believe these numbers. Maybe it will prove to be very different on election night.
Relieved I have a hedge bet on Lab most seats if this continues.
One thing that is nagging away is that Momentum asked their members a while back to sign up to survey panels. Could YouGov have been infiltrated? You'd need thousands of people to sign up but not impossible...
Will be interesting to see if phone polls show any different.
Christ. Now the Tories are borrowing the Corbynites' tin-foil-hats.
Desperate times, indeed.
Yeah, that theory doesn't make any sense. Why would it only be appearing now?
Isn’t the answer that people are looking at the difference (Tory-Labour) of two statistical distributions ?
Suppose each are normals distributed with a sigma of 3. The difference has a sigma of 2^(1/2) 3 = 4.2
Suppose the gap between Tory and Labour is 10. We measure the gap is 5. This is just a 1 and a bit sigma event -- not at all unusual.
In fact, the distributions are not normal. If they were something like Student t-distributions, the chance of this happening is still greater.
Martin Boon reporting on a Twitter that this weekends polls will be interesting. Make of that what you will
Bugger me, the teasers are the worst.
Agreed. Poll rampers should be punished in a cruel and unusual fashion by being forced to attend a five hour dinner party with Lynton Crosby and Paul Dacre.
Until this election, from my first vote in 97 I have always voted Labour, I was a member until 2015
I've voted Lib Dem all be it in Wythenshawe & Sale East where Labour weigh their votes.
I have a horrible feeling OGH could have his collar felt for publishing that information, perhaps you should anonymise the party you voted for.
Saying how you voted is fine. What's not allowed are comments from those observing the postal vote receiving centres about numbers of votes being cast.
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
One thing I do know is that you jump to the tune of uncertainty. From leave to remain and from May to Corbyn. Ultimately the polls are a guide but not a measure of the result, there are numerous other factors are we need to trust our instinct. Mine tells me that if ordinary people without strong political allegiances in a time of relative certainty didn't vote for Miliband when pushed, then they are even less likely in a time of uncertainty to vote for Corbyn - and ordinary people are still the ones that win you elections.
I agree.
I don't know anyone who has ever been opinion polled. They react more to minor political events than the nation as a whole precisely because people who answer them are political nerds
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority.
Since when was it mad to be right? I'm reminded of the PBer who opined that the "outlying" LA Times poll that predicted a Trump victory would be wrong even if it turned out to be right, since margin of error, blah blah. "Herding" is the polite term; there are others.
Corbyn's bung to the student vote is an interesting one. Those that have left recently may well resent having to subsidise new students taking a degree. Can't imagine old loans being cancelled.
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
There was that kid who bet big on Corbyn to be PM? (For his sake I hope he has taken some insurance now)
PB Tories should long ago have bet at long odds on NOM or Labour largest party. Then if it happens they can drown their sorrows in vintage champagne. After all, betting = insurance.
I doubt the poor kid realises that he can lay his original bet to end up with a certain profit.
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
It has come to this. I've voted ABL for thirty years. Yet this year they offer me (well mainly my children( a clear and unequivocal £54k bung. I simply can;t decide whether I would be a lunatic to ever vote for Corbyn, or an absolute lunatic not to.
I though BREXIT was lunacy. Yet the sun keeps coming up every morning. I thought Trump was lunacy. Yet I see no change (yet) in the world. I can't be alone in thinking that when the doom-mongers tell us that a paradigm shift will be disastrous, maybe they're going to be wrong again.
Still, for the first time I am genuinely a floater.
But the truth is... there is no bung.
You and your children will end up paying much more for it.
Hey Mortimer. I genuinely think that had Cameron become Pm when TM did then he would be doing better than her. He certainly wouldn't have made the mistakes she has. I really think she is very ordinary and is being found out now. You can hide a turd (politically speaking) but not polish one.
As I said to you before I really can't think of one policy she's announced that's gone down well or been competently handled. That said she seems to go down well with a certain demographic. Personally I don't get it.
But all she has to do is makes sure she wins and we can get rid of her if I'm right and keep her if you are....
One thing that is nagging away is that Momentum asked their members a while back to sign up to survey panels. Could YouGov have been infiltrated? You'd need thousands of people to sign up but not impossible...
Will be interesting to see if phone polls show any different.
Christ. Now the Tories are borrowing the Corbynites' tin-foil-hats.
Desperate times, indeed.
Just to point out I'm not a PB Tory. I'm looking for a reason why the numbers might not match the anecdotal evidence.
But the numbers DO match the anecdotal evidence. Everyone hated that Manifesto and TMay made herself look like a weak & wobbly idiot. Polling shows this, canvassers report it, I'm hearing it from friends and family
Sean: I sent you a vanilla mail re your issue of the other day. I hope you got it.
@MrHarryCole: Two years ago Labour's shadow chancellor called for MI5 to be disbanded. Now Corbyn expects us to believe there will more money for them.
So. Two weeks today. Corbyn's latest rallying speech to the comrades - from the podium in Downing Street.
It's going to happen. I just feel it in my bones. He's played a blinder in recent weeks, on any objective assessment Labour is completely owning this GE campaign. The Tories have been complacent and dull and offered nothing in a dogshit manifesto. They deserve to lose seats.
What an absolute effing disaster from the disaster of a party I have little option but to continue to support. In a thoroughly depressing week I am yet further depressed as this car crash continues to unfold.
Dogs bark and cats miaow and Bob's the pb Cassandra. All is right with the world.
Anecdote alert, and i wasn't going to post this but i will - I went for a beer on Wednesday with a mate who happens to be a Tory activist in a NW England marginal held by them by a not substantial majority. He's been jittery since day 1, they felt it was an unnecessary election and they'd get squeezed out by tactical voting no matter how well TM was doing in the national polls. Their feeling was labour was up since 2015 and Corbyn was getting a much fairer hearing than EdM. Even at 24 points ahead nationally he wasn't convinced they would hold but thought they might cling on. The scale of Burnham's GM mayor win was not unexpected to many in the association and caused further jangling despite the positive national results including elsewhere in the NW.
He's become increasingly despondent and not just since the care funding debacle. His view was Corbyn has been sweeping up the dissaffected and the non voters (often the same people) in a way Ed couldn't, and whilst the Tory vote was itself holding, it was obvious Labour is doing far better than 2 years ago. I haven't been in contact since last night's polls but it feels to me that they are supporting what he told me.
As with people who say 'Islam is nothing to be scared of' then won't draw a picture of Mohammed, Corbyn should be asked to sing the national anthem. He has no problem w the red flag
One thing that is nagging away is that Momentum asked their members a while back to sign up to survey panels. Could YouGov have been infiltrated? You'd need thousands of people to sign up but not impossible...
Will be interesting to see if phone polls show any different.
Christ. Now the Tories are borrowing the Corbynites' tin-foil-hats.
Desperate times, indeed.
Just to point out I'm not a PB Tory. I'm looking for a reason why the numbers might not match the anecdotal evidence.
But the numbers DO match the anecdotal evidence. Everyone hated that Manifesto and TMay made herself look like a weak & wobbly idiot. Polling shows this, canvassers report it, I'm hearing it from friends and family
Strong and Stable Corbyn backing the police and security services against Mrs Weak and Wobblys cuts .
Comments
Nawaz' tweets emphasise why Corbyn is so so wrong on this.
Are you saying that British foreign policy is the cause of terrorism rather than the New Statesman's claim that in July 2013, the European Parliament identified Wahhabism as the main source of global terrorism?
See http://www.newstatesman.com/world-affairs/2014/11/wahhabism-isis-how-saudi-arabia-exported-main-source-global-terrorism
IG
Con ...... 377 - 383
Lab ...... 178 - 183
Sporting
Con ...... 378 - 384
Lab ....... 179 - 185
Spreadex
Con ...... 375 - 381
Lab ....... 179 - 185
I'm not going to get it, but it's nice to dream.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Electrification-Russia-1880-1926-Jonathan-Coopersmith-ebook/dp/B01MZFYOFG/ref=zg_bs_362347031_f_5?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=7EZXWK0QJRG618BVHBYX
It is Corbyn's biggest test since he assumed the leadership - and it has scope to be car-crash telly. A bit difficult for Jeremy to play the affable old duffer when being quizzed about giving succour to those who murder....
Seems to me this is where old people w dementia used to be looked after. Why is no one proposing free state care for them?
http://ezitis.myzen.co.uk/stgeorgehornchurch.html
Chelsea won the league, it will be a blue victory
There is also the Paxman interview/audience questions for May and Corbyn on the 29th, and then a Question Time special on 2nd June.
Corbyn's Labour, of course, don't want to discriminate, they want to tax everyone's house, during life as well as after death.
Mrs May has political capital. She is spending it.
I'm looking forward to election night immensely.
If everyone were taxed to pay for the NHS to build nursing homes for dementia patients, that would be ok I guess. Doesn't seem right that dementia sufferers pay did treatment while everything else is free
.
There is no good time to talk about social care policy. That is why nothing has been done for decades, even though the present system is far worse than anything Theresa has proposed.
The present system itself is bankrupting Councils & can’t continue for another 5 years.
( I am not a May fan, & won’t be voting Tory -- but Theresa deserves credit for this).
Allegedly, the only cabinet minister consulted was Jeremy Hunt. Was Crosby ?
And again, I'm surprised the fact that the policy was dreamed up by the director of the No.10 policy unit, who had spent nine years shilling for an insurance company, isn't attracting more comment.
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2016/07/meet-the-new-team-at-number-ten.html
It's also striking that proper old folks homes would take some pressure off NHS Trusts - I've also seen some some studies which such suggest that an old person admitted to hospital will just get worse (no stimulation and they come to rely on care) so a more independent form of living is much better for them too.
It's not wrong to want to unlock some of the obscene equity in our houses, but I think the business case probably stacks up for the state to play a role in old folks' care as a spend to save measure for the NHS.
Yet still the leavers want to blame those who warned them.
Sad, really
It was dumb as ****. Even if you think the policy itself is good, the manner of its introduction (no kite-flying, no examination of pros and cons, done last minute in the teeth of protest just ahead of polling day) was unforgivably stupid.
Anyway, I have proofreading to do.
And Oh how we'll laugh. Or cry.
The Tories have had a woeful campaign so far, I don't think anyone would deny that. Here's some sugestions to get their campaign back on track -
1. Take steps to clarify, or amend, the social care proposal. Something on the lines of 'we will introduce a lifetime cap, subject to further consultation, of around50-75k. That will at least calm the nerves of the oldies who started to waver. They have to give a ball park figure, otherwise the vacuum of uncertainty will remain.
2. Same with the WFP. 'Nobody earning less than.....£.... will have to pay. We will also ensure there is a taper so that there is no cliff edge'. Simple. You don't need to consult for years to wrap this policy up. Again, it creates a vacuum if left alone.
3. Stop this fucking pussy footing around Corbyn. Explain, in clear and concise language, that he is a threat to our national security, and an even bigger threat to the UK economy. It cannot be that difficult considering what he is.
4. Ram it home again and again to the public that two thirds of the MPs in his own party wanted to have him removed.
All of this stuff is common sense, and it should have been nailed on the very first day of the campaign.
Reassure the oldies. Economic competence. Corbyn's track record. Credibility. It's fucking simple.
But, I'm not going to forgive Theresa May for making my blood pressure rise. The thought of Corbyn, Abbot, McDonnell and their followers in charge of this country is horrifying.
As I pointed out to you yesterday. you really shouldn't compare Camerons polling with that of May post Brexit. However if you makes you feel warm inside cling to that dream.
As someone who deals in historical fact not fantasy you may want to digest the fact that Mrs May has somehow managed to see her lead shrink from 23 percent on the 21st April to 5 points last night.
One thing that is nagging away is that Momentum asked their members a while back to sign up to survey panels. Could YouGov have been infiltrated? You'd need thousands of people to sign up but not impossible...
Will be interesting to see if phone polls show any different.
Crazy the ignorance on dispaly. This is what Corbyn is trying to tackle, and rightly so.
Weak & Wobbly May's Conservatives have been the fundamentalist Wahabi jihadis' greatest friend.
That anything from a 100 seat majority through to a hung parliament is conceivable, with less than two weeks to go to polling day is not reassuring.
Will probably all turn round in 10 days but several people have said to me don't think I'll bother this time, they are not Labour folk.
I seriously don't think Cameron would be leading. I think he'd be flailing....
(For his sake I hope he has taken some insurance now)
There is no way the Tories can now pretend to be worried about the economy given the choices they have made in the past year.
Until this election, from my first vote in 97 I have always voted Labour, I was a member until 2015
I've voted Lib Dem all be it in Wythenshawe & Sale East where Labour weigh their votes.
I though BREXIT was lunacy. Yet the sun keeps coming up every morning. I thought Trump was lunacy. Yet I see no change (yet) in the world.
I can't be alone in thinking that when the doom-mongers tell us that a paradigm shift will be disastrous, maybe they're going to be wrong again.
Still, for the first time I am genuinely a floater.
There has beeen absolutely f***-all from Theresa May or the Tory media about tightening security at crowded events. It's all about "MI5 thwarted 17 similar attacks". Well they didn't thwart this one, did they? The true attitude of the elite in Britain is that these attacks are trash-on-trash, Poundland-on-Poundland, and, as Tory Brexiteer former MI6 chief Richard Dearlove openly says, the level of terrorist attacks is "manageable" and the country can cope with it continuing "indefinitely".
Relieved I have a hedge bet on Lab most seats if this continues.
Suppose each are normals distributed with a sigma of 3. The difference has a sigma of 2^(1/2) 3 = 4.2
Suppose the gap between Tory and Labour is 10. We measure the gap is 5. This is just a 1 and a bit sigma event -- not at all unusual.
In fact, the distributions are not normal. If they were something like Student t-distributions, the chance of this happening is still greater.
At least 15 Coptic Christians reported killed in Egypt after gunmen attack bus they are travelling on
Must be due to their foreign policy.
For the victims, presumably...
I don't know anyone who has ever been opinion polled. They react more to minor political events than the nation as a whole precisely because people who answer them are political nerds
BUT...
I doubt the poor kid realises that he can lay his original bet to end up with a certain profit.
But the truth is... there is no bung.
You and your children will end up paying much more for it.
As I said to you before I really can't think of one policy she's announced that's gone down well or been competently handled.
That said she seems to go down well with a certain demographic. Personally I don't get it.
But all she has to do is makes sure she wins and we can get rid of her if I'm right and keep her if you are....
He now works against such evil, I'd say there is no one better placed to know the mindset.
He's become increasingly despondent and not just since the care funding debacle. His view was Corbyn has been sweeping up the dissaffected and the non voters (often the same people) in a way Ed couldn't, and whilst the Tory vote was itself holding, it was obvious Labour is doing far better than 2 years ago. I haven't been in contact since last night's polls but it feels to me that they are supporting what he told me.