If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
The free tuition fees in 3 months could do for May, not only might it motivate millions of kids to register and vote, their families might follow them. Most people think education should be free, however misguided. Personally I can't see the tuition fees as unfair, other than I doubt the efficiency in claiming back the loans liabilities.
She might still win on Brexit but a small majority would make her position very weak. The Hammond debacle on self-employed tax was the start of a dismal cabinet performance in recent months. Although to be fair to Hammond, Osborne set that ball rolling.
How can she turn it around and deliver a decent increased majority, probably the best way is go back to 2015 and the fear of a Corbyn/Sturgeon coalition, losing the crap slogans.
If she can win she needs a drastic change of cabinet, yes men/women won't do Hammond, Rudd and co out, Gove, Mogg and some hopefully decent new blood in. If she can't lead anyone with a bit of fire in the belly she is possibly best standing aside anyway.
Have to say I am astonished. I really could not see Labour polling more than 20-25% with Corbyn and Abbott running the show.
I thought this would be over by now and just a question of weighing the Tory votes in two weeks.
Now...
I couldn't see them getting 35. Now they're closer to 40. People are loving their freebies.
And that is exactly that! People want freebies. The trouble comes in paying for them - but that will be another governments issue due to the borrowing that we be made on a scale we haven't seen before!
To all the loonies saying 'but but but Venezuela' (about as realistic as saying a Tory government will turn us into Pinochet's Chile), Venezuela actually did historically very well economically under Chavez despite constant destabilisation from the US and local oligarchs (before Chavez inflation was hitting around 200%), and uniquely, the proceeds of growth were shared with everyone rather than squirreled away in Miami bank accounts. His policies were very moderate and social democratic, not hardcore Socialism. Think Attlee. The collapse of global oil prices leveraged by the Saudis for cynical geopolitical purposes is what has caused the problems, along with the failure to diversify the economy, which has nothing to do with socialism.
Venezuela has some of the largest oil reserves in the world, and Chavez benefited hugely from the early 2000s oil price boom. Remember, oil went from $20-something, to $150/barrel. When 80% of your exports are oil, that's a massive windfall.
But he squandered it. While Norway (for example) saved oil price windfalls, Venezuela used the promise of future oil revenues to spend ever more. Venezuela was running a massive government deficit and a trade deficit, even when oil was $120 a barrel.
The free tuition fees in 3 months could do for May, not only might it motivate millions of kids to register and vote, their families might follow them. Most people think education should be free, however misguided. Personally I can't see the tuition fees as unfair, other than I doubt the efficiency in claiming back the loans liabilities.
She might still win on Brexit but a small majority would make her position very weak. The Hammond debacle on self-employed tax was the start of a dismal cabinet performance in recent months. Although to be fair to Hammond, Osborne set that ball rolling.
How can she turn it around and deliver a decent increased majority, probably the best way is go back to 2015 and the fear of a Corbyn/Sturgeon coalition, losing the crap slogans.
If she can win she needs a drastic change of cabinet, yes men/women won't do Hammond, Rudd and co out, Gove, Mogg and some hopefully decent new blood in. If she can't lead anyone with a bit of fire in the belly she is possibly best standing aside anyway.
Well they've missed their chance to register at least, since the registration deadline was a few days ago! And we've been told on the thread that the last minute burst of registration was far lower than in 2015.
Imagine a situation where there is anti-Tory tactical voting, and we end up with the LDs on (say) 20, Labour on 240, the SNP on 40 and the Tories on around 320.
The LibDems will not enter into a coalition with the Conservative Party again, and the numbers simply don't work for an "anti-Tory" coalition.
What, other than chaos, happens next? My guess is that you'd have a weak minority Conservative government that fell at the recession.
Eeek.
So Tories on 320, Lab/Ld/SNP on 300. Tories could count on Unionists and buy off SNP with the promise of another referendum. So Confidence and supply from SNP? It won't happen, she'll get a bigger majority and her extra 2 years.
The Tories would govern with Unionists, if SNP lose 16 seats they can be ignored
Imagine a situation where there is anti-Tory tactical voting, and we end up with the LDs on (say) 20, Labour on 240, the SNP on 40 and the Tories on around 320.
The LibDems will not enter into a coalition with the Conservative Party again, and the numbers simply don't work for an "anti-Tory" coalition.
What, other than chaos, happens next? My guess is that you'd have a weak minority Conservative government that fell at the recession.
Eeek.
So Tories on 320, Lab/Ld/SNP on 300. Tories could count on Unionists and buy off SNP with the promise of another referendum. So Confidence and supply from SNP? It won't happen, she'll get a bigger majority and her extra 2 years.
But off the SNP with another referendum? Goodbye SCon revival.
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
I've read the manifesto, it is a cavalcade of more this, more that over and over. The LD one was more costed. All will have uncosted stuff, but labours is full of massive spending over promises. The one good thing about the Tory one was being willing to tell its core voters they couldn't have some of their goodies anymore.
Yes, Labour made an attempt to cost its proposals; more so than the Tories, as you say. Labour's weakness is that their proposed sources of funding are unreliable and won't bring in what they hope. It simply isn't realistic to try and get business and a few high earners to pay for everything from their income. The missing element - which they would certainly have to (re)visit if they win - is some sort of wealth tax.
Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.
Voters want a tough border control message from May
Voters want a competence message from May.
No they want more populism which Corbyn is giving them in spades. A ban on people who go to Syria or Libya without permission returning would do it
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"
Just about 25%, I'd say. As I have kept on writing. Just vote for us to stop a Tory majority 0f 100+.
LABOUR CANNOT WIN !! CORBYN WILL NOT BE PRIME MINISTER !!!!
A friendly word of advice.
The joke was funny the first few times - but it's getting a bit stale now.
Surely, you are not thinking the unthinkable, are you ?
Not any more. The unthinkable for me was a TMay landslide (and I posted as much in a thread a couple of days ago).
The era of the "professional politician" ........ mediocre the lot of them. (Honourable exception for Nicola Sturgeon, who is not faultless even so)
I'd take a team of Sturgeon, Farron and Lucas/Bartley over May, Hammond & Boris/Davis or Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott/Thornberry any day. Especially if Leanne joins in.
In terms of basic competence you are probably correct.
However if the odious Lucas ever gets near the levers of power then I fear that my depressingly small life savings will all have to be spent on Psychotherapy treatment in a vain attempt to cope with it. (With apologies to anyone who finds this outburst too shocking)
The free tuition fees in 3 months could do for May, not only might it motivate millions of kids to register and vote, their families might follow them. Most people think education should be free, however misguided. Personally I can't see the tuition fees as unfair, other than I doubt the efficiency in claiming back the loans liabilities.
She might still win on Brexit but a small majority would make her position very weak. The Hammond debacle on self-employed tax was the start of a dismal cabinet performance in recent months. Although to be fair to Hammond, Osborne set that ball rolling.
How can she turn it around and deliver a decent increased majority, probably the best way is go back to 2015 and the fear of a Corbyn/Sturgeon coalition, losing the crap slogans.
If she can win she needs a drastic change of cabinet, yes men/women won't do Hammond, Rudd and co out, Gove, Mogg and some hopefully decent new blood in. If she can't lead anyone with a bit of fire in the belly she is possibly best standing aside anyway.
Well they've missed their chance to register at least, since the registration deadline was a few days ago! And we've been told on the thread that the last minute burst of registration was far lower than in 2015.
I'm not sure the registrations were much different than last time. Based on what posters are saying on here, it seems the rate is about 1 million per year (between elections).
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
The free tuition fees in 3 months could do for May, not only might it motivate millions of kids to register and vote, their families might follow them. Most people think education should be free, however misguided. Personally I can't see the tuition fees as unfair, other than I doubt the efficiency in claiming back the loans liabilities.
She might still win on Brexit but a small majority would make her position very weak. The Hammond debacle on self-employed tax was the start of a dismal cabinet performance in recent months. Although to be fair to Hammond, Osborne set that ball rolling.
How can she turn it around and deliver a decent increased majority, probably the best way is go back to 2015 and the fear of a Corbyn/Sturgeon coalition, losing the crap slogans.
If she can win she needs a drastic change of cabinet, yes men/women won't do Hammond, Rudd and co out, Gove, Mogg and some hopefully decent new blood in. If she can't lead anyone with a bit of fire in the belly she is possibly best standing aside anyway.
Well they've missed their chance to register at least, since the registration deadline was a few days ago! And we've been told on the thread that the last minute burst of registration was far lower than in 2015.
Tbf that is because a lot of the said people sorted out their registration in 2015 or 2016 and haven't moved since. In 2015 there were five years without a national vote to make up for.
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
Neither the stock markets or the betting markets are expecting anything but 'strong and stable'.
You need to convert those stock market numbers to hard currency, otherwise you may just be looking at a mirror image of the weak and unstable pound.
Perhaps you know better than the likes of Esso and Asda (Walmart) who were both happy to exchange the mickey mouse money this week for a similar amount of goods as they did a year ago or, if I remember correctly, ten years ago.
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"
Just about 25%, I'd say. As I have kept on writing. Just vote for us to stop a Tory majority 0f 100+.
LABOUR CANNOT WIN !! CORBYN WILL NOT BE PRIME MINISTER !!!!
A friendly word of advice.
The joke was funny the first few times - but it's getting a bit stale now.
Surely, you are not thinking the unthinkable, are you ?
Not any more. The unthinkable for me was a TMay landslide (and I posted as much in a thread a couple of days ago).
The era of the "professional politician" ........ mediocre the lot of them. (Honourable exception for Nicola Sturgeon, who is not faultless even so)
I'd take a team of Sturgeon, Farron and Lucas/Bartley over May, Hammond & Boris/Davis or Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott/Thornberry any day. Especially if Leanne joins in.
In terms of basic competence you are probably correct.
However if the odious Lucas ever gets near the levers of power then I fear that my depressingly small life savings will all have to be spent on Psychotherapy treatment in a vain attempt to cope with it. (With apologies to anyone who finds this outburst too shocking)
To calm a few nerves (you know who I mean!) I thought I'd offer 5 reasons for a rogue poll; 1. It's sunny! Certain demographics have better things to do a warm spring evening/ afternoon than answer polling questions. 2. Return of the 'shy' Tories. When the Tories looked to be all-conquering a few of them became brave enough to confess. After the manifesto and 'dementia tax' who would want to admit to being one of those nasty people? 3. 'Campaign suspended'. Some potential respondents (I would guess the older ones) would feel that as the campaign had been suspended it wasn't appropriate to participate in something related to the election. There might also be an element of a sense of respect for the situation that might play out here too (I'm not saying it's right, but that it could be a factor). 4. Reversion to the mean. As Corbyn hadn't been on TV for a couple of days some people remembered that they usually vote Labour... (OK grasping at straws a bit on that one!) 5. It's YouGov! Pollsters are still playing around with weightings and I'm still nervous about panel-based polling because of the dangers inherent with self-selecting samples.
Hope this helps but it's probbly worth noting that next week is half term and so anyone expecting the polls to be 'more sensible' in the short run are going to be disappointed.
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
To calm a few nerves (you know who I mean!) I thought I'd offer 5 reasons for a rogue poll; 1. It's sunny! Certain demographics have better things to do a warm spring evening/ afternoon than answer polling questions. 2. Return of the 'shy' Tories. When the Tories looked to be all-conquering a few of them became brave enough to confess. After the manifesto and 'dementia tax' who would want to admit to being one of those nasty people? 3. 'Campaign suspended'. Some potential respondents (I would guess the older ones) would feel that as the campaign had been suspended it wasn't appropriate to participate in something related to the election. There might also be an element of a sense of respect for the situation that might play out here too (I'm not saying it's right, but that it could be a factor). 4. Reversion to the mean. As Corbyn hadn't been on TV for a couple of days some people remembered that they usually vote Labour... (OK grasping at straws a bit on that one!) 5. It's YouGov! Pollsters are still playing around with weightings and I'm still nervous about panel-based polling because of the dangers inherent with self-selecting samples.
Hope this helps but it's probbly worth noting that next week is half term and so anyone expecting the polls to be 'more sensible' in the short run are going to be disappointed.
You missed 6 - Tory exodus for skiing holidays in the Alps.
The free tuition fees in 3 months could do for May, not only might it motivate millions of kids to register and vote, their families might follow them. Most people think education should be free, however misguided. Personally I can't see the tuition fees as unfair, other than I doubt the efficiency in claiming back the loans liabilities.
She might still win on Brexit but a small majority would make her position very weak. The Hammond debacle on self-employed tax was the start of a dismal cabinet performance in recent months. Although to be fair to Hammond, Osborne set that ball rolling.
How can she turn it around and deliver a decent increased majority, probably the best way is go back to 2015 and the fear of a Corbyn/Sturgeon coalition, losing the crap slogans.
If she can win she needs a drastic change of cabinet, yes men/women won't do Hammond, Rudd and co out, Gove, Mogg and some hopefully decent new blood in. If she can't lead anyone with a bit of fire in the belly she is possibly best standing aside anyway.
Well they've missed their chance to register at least, since the registration deadline was a few days ago! And we've been told on the thread that the last minute burst of registration was far lower than in 2015.
Yes but this time there is a real motivation for those that have to get out and vote, free fees straight away, that policy is a real vote winner. Don't agree with it myself but the potential is huge, not just with youngsters themselves but parents and grandparents as well.
I see the vapours are becoming a daily event for the Tory frothers as they see reality looming and their incompetent clay idols looking like they are out on their arses
Can double our bet if you are feeling confident malc ?
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
To calm a few nerves (you know who I mean!) I thought I'd offer 5 reasons for a rogue poll; 1. It's sunny! Certain demographics have better things to do a warm spring evening/ afternoon than answer polling questions. 2. Return of the 'shy' Tories. When the Tories looked to be all-conquering a few of them became brave enough to confess. After the manifesto and 'dementia tax' who would want to admit to being one of those nasty people? 3. 'Campaign suspended'. Some potential respondents (I would guess the older ones) would feel that as the campaign had been suspended it wasn't appropriate to participate in something related to the election. There might also be an element of a sense of respect for the situation that might play out here too (I'm not saying it's right, but that it could be a factor). 4. Reversion to the mean. As Corbyn hadn't been on TV for a couple of days some people remembered that they usually vote Labour... (OK grasping at straws a bit on that one!) 5. It's YouGov! Pollsters are still playing around with weightings and I'm still nervous about panel-based polling because of the dangers inherent with self-selecting samples.
Hope this helps but it's probbly worth noting that next week is half term and so anyone expecting the polls to be 'more sensible' in the short run are going to be disappointed.
You missed 6 - Tory exodus for skiing holidays in the Alps.
I see that after a 16 month reign in the top slot, the liberal elite is no longer public enemy number one.
It seems that the Leavers are running into what we might call the 7 minute abs problem. If you peddle a nasty reactionary fantasy to angry fearful people, there's always the risk of being successfully outcrazied by another salesman.
a) Labour MPs who know their voters and are getting terrible feedback
b) YouGov, who may have been targeted by Momentum to get skewed polls
There isn't a lot of canvassing feedback because canvassing stopped after Manchester and hasn't got going again until today. But I did sense the Tories weren't enjoying it quite so much last weekend as they had been all campaign, and Labour welcomed having something to talk about on the doorstep that was offensive rather than defensive.
I see that after a 16 month reign in the top slot, the liberal elite is no longer public enemy number one.
It seems that the Leavers are running into what we might call the 7 minute abs problem. If you peddle a nasty reactionary fantasy to angry fearful people, there's always the risk of being successfully outcrazied by another salesman.
But didn't a certain wise owl write:
'And so the rest of the campaign is likely to be dominated by security concerns. This is an unmitigated disaster for Jeremy Corbyn, who the public strongly distrust on the subject. It is far too late for him to regain their confidence on this subject now.'
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
David Herdson is West Yokshire, and Marquee Mark Torbay.
Do you recall what David Henderson and Marquee Mark reported?
Marquee Mark very positive for Kevin Foster in the bay, David Herdson generally positive in Wakefield - but dementia tax had been raised.
Just to clarify, the social care charging proposals *weren't* brought up on the doorstep yesterday; they had been a big issue last weekend.
I could completely believe the drop-off in the polls post-manifesto and pre-Manchester. The further fall reported by YouGov yesterday, however, doesn't tally with what we're now getting on the ground.
I see that after a 16 month reign in the top slot, the liberal elite is no longer public enemy number one.
It seems that the Leavers are running into what we might call the 7 minute abs problem. If you peddle a nasty reactionary fantasy to angry fearful people, there's always the risk of being successfully outcrazied by another salesman.
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
David Herdson is West Yokshire, and Marquee Mark Torbay.
Do you recall what David Henderson and Marquee Mark reported?
Marquee Mark very positive for Kevin Foster in the bay, David Herdson generally positive in Wakefield - but dementia tax had been raised.
Ok, and I think both BJO and Danny reported a very negative response on the issue.
The doorstep feedback last weekend, and any internal polling, must have been astonishingly bad for May to u-turn on the centrepiece of her manifesto.
Well, I am not actually sure what has been U-turned. The central part of the policy (homes in the asset calculation) remains, and the cap remains undefined.
I see that after a 16 month reign in the top slot, the liberal elite is no longer public enemy number one.
It seems that the Leavers are running into what we might call the 7 minute abs problem. If you peddle a nasty reactionary fantasy to angry fearful people, there's always the risk of being successfully outcrazied by another salesman.
Tory manifesto plans imply “another five years of austerity”, the IFS says.
Labour manifesto plans would raises taxes to “their highest ever peacetime level”, the IFS says. It also says Labour’s plans to expand expand the size of the state “would not work”.
Would they also care to make points about the religious affiliations of the Pontiff, or perhaps comment on the defecation habits of ursine mammals in arborous areas?
I see that after a 16 month reign in the top slot, the liberal elite is no longer public enemy number one.
It seems that the Leavers are running into what we might call the 7 minute abs problem. If you peddle a nasty reactionary fantasy to angry fearful people, there's always the risk of being successfully outcrazied by another salesman.
Also, Corbyn's brand of Little Englandism echoes the mood that won the Brexit referendum: "if the rest of the world would go away England would be OK."
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
David Herdson is West Yokshire, and Marquee Mark Torbay.
Do you recall what David Henderson and Marquee Mark reported?
Marquee Mark very positive for Kevin Foster in the bay, David Herdson generally positive in Wakefield - but dementia tax had been raised.
Ok, and I think both BJO and Danny reported a very negative response on the issue.
The doorstep feedback last weekend, and any internal polling, must have been astonishingly bad for May to u-turn on the centrepiece of her manifesto.
Well, I am not actually sure what has been U-turned. The central part of the policy (homes in the asset calculation) remains, and the cap remains undefined.
Define it at 20 grand.
Hey It's wildly unaffordable but noone gives a tinkers cuss about that any more.
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
David Herdson is West Yokshire, and Marquee Mark Torbay.
Do you recall what David Henderson and Marquee Mark reported?
Marquee Mark very positive for Kevin Foster in the bay, David Herdson generally positive in Wakefield - but dementia tax had been raised.
Ok, and I think both BJO and Danny reported a very negative response on the issue.
The doorstep feedback last weekend, and any internal polling, must have been astonishingly bad for May to u-turn on the centrepiece of her manifesto.
Well, I am not actually sure what has been U-turned. The central part of the policy (homes in the asset calculation) remains, and the cap remains undefined.
Define it at 20 grand.
Hey It's wildly unaffordable but noone gives a tinkers cuss about that any more.
What recent elections have shown us is that the public mood is fickle and can swing significantly as the campaign reaches the closing stages. In 2015 I was convinced Labour would win going off what we were hearing on the doors. Right up until the final week when "Milliband will be the SNP puppet" resonated hard. Tory voters came flooding back and surprised everyone including the Tories.
With the referendum it was a remain win on paper despite hearing a lot of leave voters on the doors. The late surge of leave caught the pollsters and bookies with their pants down.
And now we have 2017. The CORBYN CAN'T WIN election. He can't win. He won't win. Until he wins. Because if you set aside the can't win won't win mantra, it's clear that he is winning: 1. Labour manifesto offering a positive vision for the future. A hope manifesto with free puppies for all 2. Tory manifesto offers no vision other than mean-minded snatching of homes and the slow death of public services and civic society. 3. Two million people added themselves to the electoral register by the deadline. They aren't Tory voters 4. Tory campaign was Strong and Stable. And unwilling to speak to people. Has now become Incoherent and Running Scared. And unable to talk to people. A campaign that only works when Jezza can't win and won't win. But what if he can...?
I entered this campaign expecting one of two results : a Tory majority of 50 or a Tory majority of 150. But I can't deny what I can see and touch - a Labour surge that grows exponentially each day and a Tory cataclysm of a campaign that makes voting for them look increasingly like an act of self harm.
Despite all that, common sense still suggests a Tory win. But what if common sense isn't what the silent majority who delivered a Tory win against expectations are wanting now? After a decade of crippling austerity the promise of worse to come doesn't look as attractive as free puppies with Corbyn
Despite the polls, the fundamental problem for Labour is that 17.4m people voted for Brexit last year, largely in working class areas. It will take an enormous amount of voter cognitive dissonance for those voters to vote for Corbyn. I suspect many will stay at home.
At this point in GE2015 I just couldn't see Miliband as PM, despite his being far more talented than Corbyn. Clearly Miliband was up against a more formidable opponent, but even lacklustre May is 6-7% ahead of what Cameron was polling.
Will Corbyn get many more - if any more - votes than Miliband? It's hard to see.
I still think the Tories will get a majority above 80.
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
David Herdson is West Yokshire, and Marquee Mark Torbay.
Do you recall what David Henderson and Marquee Mark reported?
Marquee Mark very positive for Kevin Foster in the bay, David Herdson generally positive in Wakefield - but dementia tax had been raised.
Just to clarify, the social care charging proposals *weren't* brought up on the doorstep yesterday; they had been a big issue last weekend.
I could completely believe the drop-off in the polls post-manifesto and pre-Manchester. The further fall reported by YouGov yesterday, however, doesn't tally with what we're now getting on the ground.
Thanks for the info, and good luck in the coming weeks!
How can she turn it around and deliver a decent increased majority, probably the best way is go back to 2015 and the fear of a Corbyn/Sturgeon coalition, losing the crap slogans.
JC has ruled out a coalition with the woad smeared hordes hasn't he?
That's not say there isn't some sort of a deal to be done should necessity dictate.
6. Labour are being undermined from within. The centrists within the party know Corbyn’s success will potentially end the party as they know it. We have already seen it with ex MPs last night (Burnham and Rudd on the same hymn sheet and Johnson being dismissive of Corbyn). Some of these attacks will be more subtle than others, but intel will almost certainly be being passed on. 7. Internal polls. We know the Tories did these a lot in 2015 and they will be much harder for outsiders to manipulate. If things were really bad (and I know it didn’t work in the referendum) I would expect project fear with ex PMs, Presidents, celebs, army leaders and plenty of former Labour MPs turning their fire on Corbyn. Clearly we are not at Defcon One yet. 8. The election is still 2 weeks away. Of course this means Labour can make more inroads, but more likely to me it means people are not entirely focused on the election. Apart from Abbott gaffes and dementia tax it has not yet been a huge topic of conversation outside the PB bubble. When the day approaches and the choice becomes real it is then many swing voters will reject Corbyn and Abbott leading the country. 9. Getting out the vote. Despite the manifesto it seems pretty clear to us the pensioner vote is rock solid, as is most of the Tory vote. The labour polling increase has been lead by 2015 non voters and the young. Are these types going to vote in huge numbers in a GE for the first time? Strong doubt. Will Momentum students and pink haired socialists really be a turn on on marginal doorsteps? 10. Corbyn. He hasn’t slipped up yet but surely he will. Andrew Neil is his biggest challenge to date, and while blaming foreign policy for terrorism might be a vote winner on the left, it is also an error to keep talking about a subject where he has so many skeletons. By him making the first move it can now be open season from the press, and will move him away from his comfort ground of equality and the NHS.
After hanging my hat on the good polls in recent weeks it would be somewhat myopic of me to ignore this 5 pointer, and indeed I expect closer polls to come. However as someone who will vote neither Corbyn or May (but with a preference for the latter), here are 10 reasons as to why the PB Tories should not be ‘weak and wobbly’ this weekend. *Long Post Klaxon*
1. The biggest fundamental is the ‘leadership question’. Despite Corbyn making some progress and May drifting towards neutral level, the gap remains sizeable. Ultimately in 2015 the Presidential style question in polling was a greater pointer to the result than party numbers. 2. Corbyn is toxic. All polling suggests this, and it is backed up on the doorstep. Large sections of the population – the rich, the elderly, the armed forces and business owners will by and large not touch him. He is probably fishing in a pool that 40% of the voters inhabit, and though doing well he surely cannot breach this barrier. 3. Lynton Crosby. The man is a winner and knows exactly what makes voters tick, he knows how to squeeze out the vote and when to attack. He will have a firm hold over the campaign and will not let Nick Timothy or anyone else make any sizeable mistakes. Does anyone else really think he could be outwitted by Seamus Milne and co? 4. Shy Tories. We know the polls usually underweight the Tories at the expense of Labour (exception 1983). I’ve noticed a number of prominent people who have been critical of Corbyn in the past move on to battering Trump instead. I think the reason for this is simply because the Momentum army is attacking anyone on facebook/twitter who dare criticize Dear Leader. This is leading to a lot of voters keeping their heads down until polling day. 5. The marginals. We know the Tories have been working hard in swing seats (anywhere with Labour 8k majority or next). They have the information to target the exact voters they need. Their voter efficiency will be considerably better than Labour, who we expect to build up huge leads in urban areas. There is nothing to suggest the Labour campaign in Coventry, Fleetwood or Chester has anywhere near the same level or organisation to it. The squeezing of the minor parties will benefit the Tories here, and even a slightly small lead than the 7 points in 2015 should lead to more seats with the higher vote share.
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
David Herdson is West Yokshire, and Marquee Mark Torbay.
Do you recall what David Henderson and Marquee Mark reported?
Marquee Mark very positive for Kevin Foster in the bay, David Herdson generally positive in Wakefield - but dementia tax had been raised.
Just to clarify, the social care charging proposals *weren't* brought up on the doorstep yesterday; they had been a big issue last weekend.
I could completely believe the drop-off in the polls post-manifesto and pre-Manchester. The further fall reported by YouGov yesterday, however, doesn't tally with what we're now getting on the ground.
It's not a further fall is it? They're reporting it as a fall versus their last published poll but a modest recovery from after last weekend which hasn't been published yet.
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
The telegraph quote apparently comes from research they did. They claim he said it to a sinn fein newspaper three months before the agreement was signed.
Seems a little unfair to take that as his position given the agreement wasn't finalised,, he changed his mind when it was, voted for it and spoke in favour of it since then.
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
The telegraph quote apparently comes from research they did. They claim he said it to a sinn fein newspaper three months before the agreement was signed.
Seems a little unfair to take that as his position given the agreement wasn't finalised,, he changed his mind when it was, voted for it and spoke in favour of it since then.
I hope and imagine Nick Timothy's career as a spad is now dead in the water. We learned from the budget and the manifesto that proposals need to be properly scrutinised before they hit Go Live. Relying on a Grimer Wormtongue to feed bullshit into a leader's ear is no way to run a sweetshop.
I've talked in some depth with a Labour MP in a marginal who doesn't like Corbyn's leadership for the reason I mentioned ("might make us lose"). Basic comment was that re-election would have been easy with a less controversial leader, and early canvass returns were iffy at best, but things have been improving, some positive pro-Corbyn switchers are now appearing, and it now looks reasonably comfortable.
I will say that the TNS poll showing an 8-point Tory lead pre-Manchester should have a sobering effect, since YouGov implictly suggests that at that point it was more or less level pegging: they can't both be right. Quite possibly the real Tory lead is still 8-9 points and punters would be unwise to go deep into Labour win teritory right now. The most hopeful side for Labour is really the trend. If Corbyn's speech goes well (and the text looks good IMO) and the Neil interview likewise (much more risky), we may see some further progress next week.
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
David Herdson is West Yokshire, and Marquee Mark Torbay.
Do you recall what David Henderson and Marquee Mark reported?
Marquee Mark very positive for Kevin Foster in the bay, David Herdson generally positive in Wakefield - but dementia tax had been raised.
Ok, and I think both BJO and Danny reported a very negative response on the issue.
The doorstep feedback last weekend, and any internal polling, must have been astonishingly bad for May to u-turn on the centrepiece of her manifesto.
Well, I am not actually sure what has been U-turned. The central part of the policy (homes in the asset calculation) remains, and the cap remains undefined.
Define it at 20 grand.
Hey It's wildly unaffordable but noone gives a tinkers cuss about that any more.
Let's make it free, wtf.
I might be a little worried if I thought I was going to have to use the care service, though.
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
FS begins with warning Tory plans risk 'serious damage' to schools and hospitals
A major briefing on election manifestos by IFS think tank has just begun in London.
And the experts warn Tory spending plans risk “serious damage” to schools and hospitals in a devastating report on parties’ election manifestos.
The NHS would face “an incredibly challenging period” under proposals outlined by Theresa May, coupled with “real cuts to per pupil funding in schools”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
There's no doubt Labour have recovered to some degree but every up tick in Corbyn's chances will motivate Tory minded voters to get down to the polling booths. Boredom/apathy or even resentment at being asked to vote at an unnecessary election for something that seems a foregone conclusion should no longer be a factor.
If JC won would he go to NATO andG7 meetings or, as has done since becoming labour leader, only talk to fellow socialists? He seems to believe that everything can be solved through socialists working together.
Why do people take the opinion polls so seriously? Every time one shows anything, they analyse exactly what would happen if the poll was accurate, despite knowing that it probably isn't. Seems like just something to do
We could save time waiting by just not having polls but instead running a program that randomly picks numbers and gives them to parties, then discuss what would happen if it were the result
I've talked in some depth with a Labour MP in a marginal who doesn't like Corbyn's leadership for the reason I mentioned ("might make us lose"). Basic comment was that re-election would have been easy with a less controversial leader, and early canvass returns were iffy at best, but things have been improving, some positive pro-Corbyn switchers are now appearing, and it now looks reasonably comfortable.
I will say that the TNS poll showing an 8-point Tory lead pre-Manchester should have a sobering effect, since YouGov implictly suggests that at that point it was more or less level pegging: they can't both be right. Quite possibly the real Tory lead is still 8-9 points and punters would be unwise to go deep into Labour win teritory right now. The most hopeful side for Labour is really the trend. If Corbyn's speech goes well (and the text looks good IMO) and the Neil interview likewise (much more risky), we may see some further progress next week.
Yes, the whole YouGov level-pegging thing is confusing. They can't have had two outlier polls in a row, surely?
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"
Just about 25%, I'd say. As I have kept on writing. Just vote for us to stop a Tory majority 0f 100+.
LABOUR CANNOT WIN !! CORBYN WILL NOT BE PRIME MINISTER !!!!
A friendly word of advice.
The joke was funny the first few times - but it's getting a bit stale now.
Surely, you are not thinking the unthinkable, are you ?
Not any more. The unthinkable for me was a TMay landslide (and I posted as much in a thread a couple of days ago).
The era of the "professional politician" ........ mediocre the lot of them. (Honourable exception for Nicola Sturgeon, who is not faultless even so)
I'd take a team of Sturgeon, Farron and Lucas/Bartley over May, Hammond & Boris/Davis or Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott/Thornberry any day. Especially if Leanne joins in.
In terms of basic competence you are probably correct.
However if the odious Lucas ever gets near the levers of power then I fear that my depressingly small life savings will all have to be spent on Psychotherapy treatment in a vain attempt to cope with it. (With apologies to anyone who finds this outburst too shocking)
She seems mostly harmless, and quite nice, to me.
She makes my skin crawl, TBH.
I am 61 years of age, and have always been interested in Politics. In general, I have been more impressed by female politicians than male ones over the years, so I can't put it down to straightforward mysogyny!
Despite the polls, the fundamental problem for Labour is that 17.4m people voted for Brexit last year, largely in working class areas. It will take an enormous amount of voter cognitive dissonance for those voters to vote for Corbyn. I suspect many will stay at home.
At this point in GE2015 I just couldn't see Miliband as PM, despite his being far more talented than Corbyn. Clearly Miliband was up against a more formidable opponent, but even lacklustre May is 6-7% ahead of what Cameron was polling.
Will Corbyn get many more - if any more - votes than Miliband? It's hard to see.
I still think the Tories will get a majority above 80.
Most of the Labour Brexiters in the North are back with Labour.
FS begins with warning Tory plans risk 'serious damage' to schools and hospitals
A major briefing on election manifestos by IFS think tank has just begun in London.
And the experts warn Tory spending plans risk “serious damage” to schools and hospitals in a devastating report on parties’ election manifestos.
The NHS would face “an incredibly challenging period” under proposals outlined by Theresa May, coupled with “real cuts to per pupil funding in schools”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
They're not very positive about labours plans either though.
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
David Herdson is West Yokshire, and Marquee Mark Torbay.
Do you recall what David Henderson and Marquee Mark reported?
Marquee Mark very positive for Kevin Foster in the bay, David Herdson generally positive in Wakefield - but dementia tax had been raised.
Just to clarify, the social care charging proposals *weren't* brought up on the doorstep yesterday; they had been a big issue last weekend.
I could completely believe the drop-off in the polls post-manifesto and pre-Manchester. The further fall reported by YouGov yesterday, however, doesn't tally with what we're now getting on the ground.
It's not a further fall is it? They're reporting it as a fall versus their last published poll but a modest recovery from after last weekend which hasn't been published yet.
It's a fall from the polls last weekend. Obviously, we have to be extremely wary about comparing across different companies but if YouGov do have an unpublished poll from last weekend that showed a sub-5% lead then it would have been way out of line with the rest.
I hesitate to say this, given that it's verging into conspiracy territory, but I do wonder whether the integrity of YouGov's has been compromised to some extent by infiltration. You would hope that any recent mass-signup of members would be carefully monitored but it's the sort of thing that Momentum types might do and when only 1 or 2% swings matter disproportionately in the reporting, it wouldn't take many people to skew the results.
That said, were that the case, I would expect the numbers down the tables to match. The ratings on economy, Brexit and security don't fit that picture. But then they don't fit the top-line numbers either.
I'm getting really quite stressed with all these different pieces of info. For example, we have wildly different canvassing returns reported on here, which makes me wonder if they are all genuine, or perhaps it is a geographical thing?
Has anyone reported any good canvassing for Labour?
David Herdson is West Yokshire, and Marquee Mark Torbay.
Do you recall what David Henderson and Marquee Mark reported?
Marquee Mark very positive for Kevin Foster in the bay, David Herdson generally positive in Wakefield - but dementia tax had been raised.
Just to firm that up, the further Referendum seems to have hurt the LibDems badly in the SW. A lot less LibDem orange diamonds in the old council estates here in Torbay, with direct Yellow to Blue switchers. And a collapse in the UKIP vote to the Blues - last time they had quite a bit of UKIP head office funding (posters on buses, etc.).
And while there do seem to be some Labour voters happy to shout their liking for Corbyn's direction - seeing more Labour posters about than I recall before - there is generally disdain for the guy on the doorstep.
I suspect the Conservative majority in Torbay will be up above 5k this time. And I think CCHQ reckon it safe from their internal polling and have moved on to juicier targets this time. Not taking anything for granted though, and we are putting in the hard yards on the ground delivering leaflets. After we got the postal voters letters out yesterday, I saw a pallet full of the next batch of deliveries had arrived last night!
After hanging my hat on the good polls in recent weeks it would be somewhat myopic of me to ignore this 5 pointer, and indeed I expect closer polls to come. However as someone who will vote neither Corbyn or May (but with a preference for the latter), here are 10 reasons as to why the PB Tories should not be ‘weak and wobbly’ this weekend. *Long Post Klaxon*
1. The biggest fundamental is the ‘leadership question’. Despite Corbyn making some progress and May drifting towards neutral level, the gap remains sizeable. Ultimately in 2015 the Presidential style question in polling was a greater pointer to the result than party numbers. 2. Corbyn is toxic. All polling suggests this, and it is backed up on the doorstep. Large sections of the population – the rich, the elderly, the armed forces and business owners will by and large not touch him. He is probably fishing in a pool that 40% of the voters inhabit, and though doing well he surely cannot breach this barrier. 3. Lynton Crosby. The man is a winner and knows exactly what makes voters tick, he knows how to squeeze out the vote and when to attack. He will have a firm hold over the campaign and will not let Nick Timothy or anyone else make any sizeable mistakes. Does anyone else really think he could be outwitted by Seamus Milne and co? 4. Shy Tories. We know the polls usually underweight the Tories at the expense of Labour (exception 1983). I’ve noticed a number of prominent people who have been critical of Corbyn in the past move on to battering Trump instead. I think the reason for this is simply because the Momentum army is attacking anyone on facebook/twitter who dare criticize Dear Leader. This is leading to a lot of voters keeping their heads down until polling day. 5. The marginals. We know the Tories have been working hard in swing seats (anywhere with Labour 8k majority or next). They have the information to target the exact voters they need. Their voter efficiency will be considerably better than Labour, who we expect to build up huge leads in urban areas. There is nothing to suggest the Labour campaign in Coventry, Fleetwood or Chester has anywhere near the same level or organisation to it. The squeezing of the minor parties will benefit the Tories here, and even a slightly small lead than the 7 points in 2015 should lead to more seats with the higher vote share.
On 3 - what if May listens to Timothy and not to Crosby?
For those who think that Corbyn's speech on foreign policy will ruin him, I wouldn't jump to conclusions. YouGov's poll yesterday suggested that the vast majority (59% vs 25%) believe foreign policy is playing some role in the extremist threat:
Thinking about the rise of extremist threats like ISIS/Islamic State in recent decades, do you think this is mainly the result of western countries interfering in the Middle East, or mainly the result of social, religious or political issues in the Middle East itself?
Is mostly the result of western countries interfering in the Middle East: 18%
Is mostly the result of with social, religious or political issues in the Middle East itself: 25%
Both equally: 41%.
It might not be the most popular statement, but I don't think it will make JC lose many votes, especially given most of that 25% are conservative voters.
The big caveat here though is if we think this YG poll was an outlier or systematically wrong in some way; if so, then the public may be less sympathetic to Corbyn's view on this than the polls suggest. But if you consider 'both equally' to play a role, as a plurality of voters do, his speech is probably unlikely to change your voting intention.
Despite the polls, the fundamental problem for Labour is that 17.4m people voted for Brexit last year, largely in working class areas. It will take an enormous amount of voter cognitive dissonance for those voters to vote for Corbyn. I suspect many will stay at home.
At this point in GE2015 I just couldn't see Miliband as PM, despite his being far more talented than Corbyn. Clearly Miliband was up against a more formidable opponent, but even lacklustre May is 6-7% ahead of what Cameron was polling.
Will Corbyn get many more - if any more - votes than Miliband? It's hard to see.
I still think the Tories will get a majority above 80.
Most of the Labour Brexiters in the North are back with Labour.
Will they vote though?
Fair play if they do. If Corbyn gets into the high 30s I'll be the first one to congratulate him. It would be stunning success. Just think back to the widespread incredulity which met his candidacy for leadership back in the summer of 2015. It'd be arguably the biggest political turnaround ever.
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
Lab will £37b bigger deficit according to IFS. And that is being optimistic they say.
That is smaller than Osborne's arithmetic. The Tories promised to eliminate the deficit by 2015. In fact, it was £65m in 2015.
That's comparing apples and pears.
If the global economy grows more slowly than expected, then obviously that'll have a knock-on effect on growth and, hence, the deficit in the UK. But such outcomes can only be known after the event. By contrast, the analysis of Labour's proposals now is using a consistent baseline.
Comments
a) Labour MPs who know their voters and are getting terrible feedback
b) YouGov, who may have been targeted by Momentum to get skewed polls
She might still win on Brexit but a small majority would make her position very weak. The Hammond debacle on self-employed tax was the start of a dismal cabinet performance in recent months. Although to be fair to Hammond, Osborne set that ball rolling.
How can she turn it around and deliver a decent increased majority, probably the best way is go back to 2015 and the fear of a Corbyn/Sturgeon coalition, losing the crap slogans.
If she can win she needs a drastic change of cabinet, yes men/women won't do Hammond, Rudd and co out, Gove, Mogg and some hopefully decent new blood in. If she can't lead anyone with a bit of fire in the belly she is possibly best standing aside anyway.
But he squandered it. While Norway (for example) saved oil price windfalls, Venezuela used the promise of future oil revenues to spend ever more. Venezuela was running a massive government deficit and a trade deficit, even when oil was $120 a barrel.
That was never going to end well.
However if the odious Lucas ever gets near the levers of power then I fear that my depressingly small life savings will all have to be spent on Psychotherapy treatment in a vain attempt to cope with it. (With apologies to anyone who finds this outburst too shocking)
I'm not sure the registrations were much different than last time. Based on what posters are saying on here, it seems the rate is about 1 million per year (between elections).
David Herdson is West Yokshire, and Marquee Mark Torbay.
1. It's sunny! Certain demographics have better things to do a warm spring evening/ afternoon than answer polling questions.
2. Return of the 'shy' Tories. When the Tories looked to be all-conquering a few of them became brave enough to confess. After the manifesto and 'dementia tax' who would want to admit to being one of those nasty people?
3. 'Campaign suspended'. Some potential respondents (I would guess the older ones) would feel that as the campaign had been suspended it wasn't appropriate to participate in something related to the election. There might also be an element of a sense of respect for the situation that might play out here too (I'm not saying it's right, but that it could be a factor).
4. Reversion to the mean. As Corbyn hadn't been on TV for a couple of days some people remembered that they usually vote Labour... (OK grasping at straws a bit on that one!)
5. It's YouGov! Pollsters are still playing around with weightings and I'm still nervous about panel-based polling because of the dangers inherent with self-selecting samples.
Hope this helps but it's probbly worth noting that next week is half term and so anyone expecting the polls to be 'more sensible' in the short run are going to be disappointed.
If 50 exactly both bets go to charity.
51 or more you win.
Look at the Remainer/Leaver split and the Scotland subsample Vs other regions.
It seems that the Leavers are running into what we might call the 7 minute abs problem. If you peddle a nasty reactionary fantasy to angry fearful people, there's always the risk of being successfully outcrazied by another salesman.
'And so the rest of the campaign is likely to be dominated by security concerns. This is an unmitigated disaster for Jeremy Corbyn, who the public strongly distrust on the subject. It is far too late for him to regain their confidence on this subject now.'
I could completely believe the drop-off in the polls post-manifesto and pre-Manchester. The further fall reported by YouGov yesterday, however, doesn't tally with what we're now getting on the ground.
Con 67
Lab 19
18-24
Con 22
Lab 59
Draw your own conclusions.
Hey It's wildly unaffordable but noone gives a tinkers cuss about that any more.
May will win by 10 or 12 points.
At this point in GE2015 I just couldn't see Miliband as PM, despite his being far more talented than Corbyn. Clearly Miliband was up against a more formidable opponent, but even lacklustre May is 6-7% ahead of what Cameron was polling.
Will Corbyn get many more - if any more - votes than Miliband? It's hard to see.
I still think the Tories will get a majority above 80.
That's not say there isn't some sort of a deal to be done should necessity dictate.
6. Labour are being undermined from within. The centrists within the party know Corbyn’s success will potentially end the party as they know it. We have already seen it with ex MPs last night (Burnham and Rudd on the same hymn sheet and Johnson being dismissive of Corbyn). Some of these attacks will be more subtle than others, but intel will almost certainly be being passed on.
7. Internal polls. We know the Tories did these a lot in 2015 and they will be much harder for outsiders to manipulate. If things were really bad (and I know it didn’t work in the referendum) I would expect project fear with ex PMs, Presidents, celebs, army leaders and plenty of former Labour MPs turning their fire on Corbyn. Clearly we are not at Defcon One yet.
8. The election is still 2 weeks away. Of course this means Labour can make more inroads, but more likely to me it means people are not entirely focused on the election. Apart from Abbott gaffes and dementia tax it has not yet been a huge topic of conversation outside the PB bubble. When the day approaches and the choice becomes real it is then many swing voters will reject Corbyn and Abbott leading the country.
9. Getting out the vote. Despite the manifesto it seems pretty clear to us the pensioner vote is rock solid, as is most of the Tory vote. The labour polling increase has been lead by 2015 non voters and the young. Are these types going to vote in huge numbers in a GE for the first time? Strong doubt. Will Momentum students and pink haired socialists really be a turn on on marginal doorsteps?
10. Corbyn. He hasn’t slipped up yet but surely he will. Andrew Neil is his biggest challenge to date, and while blaming foreign policy for terrorism might be a vote winner on the left, it is also an error to keep talking about a subject where he has so many skeletons. By him making the first move it can now be open season from the press, and will move him away from his comfort ground of equality and the NHS.
1. The biggest fundamental is the ‘leadership question’. Despite Corbyn making some progress and May drifting towards neutral level, the gap remains sizeable. Ultimately in 2015 the Presidential style question in polling was a greater pointer to the result than party numbers.
2. Corbyn is toxic. All polling suggests this, and it is backed up on the doorstep. Large sections of the population – the rich, the elderly, the armed forces and business owners will by and large not touch him. He is probably fishing in a pool that 40% of the voters inhabit, and though doing well he surely cannot breach this barrier.
3. Lynton Crosby. The man is a winner and knows exactly what makes voters tick, he knows how to squeeze out the vote and when to attack. He will have a firm hold over the campaign and will not let Nick Timothy or anyone else make any sizeable mistakes. Does anyone else really think he could be outwitted by Seamus Milne and co?
4. Shy Tories. We know the polls usually underweight the Tories at the expense of Labour (exception 1983). I’ve noticed a number of prominent people who have been critical of Corbyn in the past move on to battering Trump instead. I think the reason for this is simply because the Momentum army is attacking anyone on facebook/twitter who dare criticize Dear Leader. This is leading to a lot of voters keeping their heads down until polling day.
5. The marginals. We know the Tories have been working hard in swing seats (anywhere with Labour 8k majority or next). They have the information to target the exact voters they need. Their voter efficiency will be considerably better than Labour, who we expect to build up huge leads in urban areas. There is nothing to suggest the Labour campaign in Coventry, Fleetwood or Chester has anywhere near the same level or organisation to it. The squeezing of the minor parties will benefit the Tories here, and even a slightly small lead than the 7 points in 2015 should lead to more seats with the higher vote share.
If that's austerity I'd like to see what living within your means is.
The telegraph quote apparently comes from research they did. They claim he said it to a sinn fein newspaper three months before the agreement was signed.
Seems a little unfair to take that as his position given the agreement wasn't finalised,, he changed his mind when it was, voted for it and spoke in favour of it since then.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/868023490233999361
I will say that the TNS poll showing an 8-point Tory lead pre-Manchester should have a sobering effect, since YouGov implictly suggests that at that point it was more or less level pegging: they can't both be right. Quite possibly the real Tory lead is still 8-9 points and punters would be unwise to go deep into Labour win teritory right now. The most hopeful side for Labour is really the trend. If Corbyn's speech goes well (and the text looks good IMO) and the Neil interview likewise (much more risky), we may see some further progress next week.
I might be a little worried if I thought I was going to have to use the care service, though.
A major briefing on election manifestos by IFS think tank has just begun in London.
And the experts warn Tory spending plans risk “serious damage” to schools and hospitals in a devastating report on parties’ election manifestos.
The NHS would face “an incredibly challenging period” under proposals outlined by Theresa May, coupled with “real cuts to per pupil funding in schools”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
He seems to believe that everything can be solved through socialists working together.
We could save time waiting by just not having polls but instead running a program that randomly picks numbers and gives them to parties, then discuss what would happen if it were the result
I am 61 years of age, and have always been interested in Politics. In general, I have been more impressed by female politicians than male ones over the years, so I can't put it down to straightforward mysogyny!
Get your diary out for the lads!!
I hesitate to say this, given that it's verging into conspiracy territory, but I do wonder whether the integrity of YouGov's has been compromised to some extent by infiltration. You would hope that any recent mass-signup of members would be carefully monitored but it's the sort of thing that Momentum types might do and when only 1 or 2% swings matter disproportionately in the reporting, it wouldn't take many people to skew the results.
That said, were that the case, I would expect the numbers down the tables to match. The ratings on economy, Brexit and security don't fit that picture. But then they don't fit the top-line numbers either.
And while there do seem to be some Labour voters happy to shout their liking for Corbyn's direction - seeing more Labour posters about than I recall before - there is generally disdain for the guy on the doorstep.
I suspect the Conservative majority in Torbay will be up above 5k this time. And I think CCHQ reckon it safe from their internal polling and have moved on to juicier targets this time. Not taking anything for granted though, and we are putting in the hard yards on the ground delivering leaflets. After we got the postal voters letters out yesterday, I saw a pallet full of the next batch of deliveries had arrived last night!
Steve Topple
Described as Ultra-left by Owen Jones.
Thinking about the rise of extremist threats like
ISIS/Islamic State in recent decades, do you
think this is mainly the result of western
countries interfering in the Middle East, or
mainly the result of social, religious or political
issues in the Middle East itself?
Is mostly the result of western countries interfering
in the Middle East: 18%
Is mostly the result of with social, religious or
political issues in the Middle East itself: 25%
Both equally: 41%.
It might not be the most popular statement, but I don't think it will make JC lose many votes, especially given most of that 25% are conservative voters.
See poll results here (page 11):
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/dcfgflapq2/TimesResults_170525_VI_Trackers_Terrorism_W.pdf
The big caveat here though is if we think this YG poll was an outlier or systematically wrong in some way; if so, then the public may be less sympathetic to Corbyn's view on this than the polls suggest. But if you consider 'both equally' to play a role, as a plurality of voters do, his speech is probably unlikely to change your voting intention.
Fair play if they do. If Corbyn gets into the high 30s I'll be the first one to congratulate him. It would be stunning success. Just think back to the widespread incredulity which met his candidacy for leadership back in the summer of 2015. It'd be arguably the biggest political turnaround ever.
If the global economy grows more slowly than expected, then obviously that'll have a knock-on effect on growth and, hence, the deficit in the UK. But such outcomes can only be known after the event. By contrast, the analysis of Labour's proposals now is using a consistent baseline.
Let that sink in.
*Slow handclap for Theresa May and Nick Timothy*