So. Two weeks today. Corbyn's latest rallying speech to the comrades - from the podium in Downing Street.
It's going to happen. I just feel it in my bones. He's played a blinder in recent weeks, on any objective assessment Labour is completely owning this GE campaign. The Tories have been complacent and dull and offered nothing in a dogshit manifesto. They deserve to lose seats.
What an absolute effing disaster from the disaster of a party I have little option but to continue to support. In a thoroughly depressing week I am yet further depressed as this car crash continues to unfold.
I am no fan of Corbyn (as many here will know!!) but he has certainly completely out campaigned May, who has proved herself to be utterly inept in the crucible of a general election. Where we differ is that I still think the Tories will win big. That said, I also thought Clinton and Remain would win. In both those cases, however, I backed the opposite outcome as a value longshot. Labour now at least have come into view as a value longshot, from being completely out of the game two weeks ago.
The Leave Brexit campaigned normalised fantasy economics, protectionism, sweeties for all and even the general unimportance of economic growth when set against emotional arguments.
There is no way the Tories can now pretend to be worried about the economy given the choices they have made in the past year.
Yup, it's hard for this guy to accuse others of fantasy...
The Brexiteers also normalised the argument that its fine to make up lies about numbers - the bigger the better - since that gets people talking about your manifesto and forces the opposition to spend time disproving you.
For them to now complain about Corbyn's un-costed manifesto...
The Brexiteers also normalised the argument that its fine to make up lies about numbers - the bigger the better - since that gets people talking about your manifesto and forces the opposition to spend time disproving you.
For them to now complain about Corbyn's un-costed manifesto...
It could be that the British are not "cucks" unlike the French who voted for Macron and will say "fuck you" to the people who have ruled over us for the past decades. Or else, the next poll will show May with a 20 point lead. On verra.
One thing that is nagging away is that Momentum asked their members a while back to sign up to survey panels. Could YouGov have been infiltrated? You'd need thousands of people to sign up but not impossible...
Will be interesting to see if phone polls show any different.
Christ. Now the Tories are borrowing the Corbynites' tin-foil-hats.
Desperate times, indeed.
Just to point out I'm not a PB Tory. I'm looking for a reason why the numbers might not match the anecdotal evidence.
But the numbers DO match the anecdotal evidence. Everyone hated that Manifesto and TMay made herself look like a weak & wobbly idiot. Polling shows this, canvassers report it, I'm hearing it from friends and family
But do you really think the anecdotal evidence is enough to suggest one bad policy in an underwhelming manifesto wiped out a comfortable 15-20 point lead? The Tories aren't really moving to Labour, it's just Labour are doing well with non voters. If we did get crossover then it would just make me more certain the polls are completely wrong, and that might sound a bit tin foil hat but there is no way Corbyn will come close to outpolling May.
This is one of the surprises of Brexit for me. I was expecting it to increase demand for independence, when it seems to have dampened it. I guess people are cottoning on to the similarity between leaving the two unions and if one is problematic, the other is even more so.
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
Sean, one thing you do appear to right about is the capacity of young women to be fully paid up Corbynistas. I was out with the girls from my office last night –posh, expensively privately educated, 24-26-year-olds. I assumed they would all be Tories. Nope, blazing reds the lot of them. What is it about Corbyn and Millennials of the fairer sex??
@MrHarryCole: Two years ago Labour's shadow chancellor called for MI5 to be disbanded. Now Corbyn expects us to believe there will more money for them.
Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?
Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?
They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
There was that kid who bet big on Corbyn to be PM? (For his sake I hope he has taken some insurance now)
I'm with SeanT. This is beyond belief. I literally can't believe these numbers. Maybe it will prove to be very different on election night.
Relieved I have a hedge bet on Lab most seats if this continues.
My only national bet is on a Tory majority of 200+. Tbh it could still happen. Lots of constituency small bets - largely on Labour seats I thought could resist the Tory tide.
But basically it all boils down to Sarah Olney after getting on at 25-1. I've hedged a bit but if she can do it I'll be very happy.
@BBCNormanS: Jeremy Corbyn will pledge to be "tough on terrorism ; tough on the causes of terrorism" #ge17 #blair
If he really does say this, doesn't it give the Tories the opening they need?
A few posters etc with Corbyn boasting about opposing anti-terror laws, Abbot's quotes about the intelligence services, McDonnell refusing to pay for intelligence, McDonnell saying that "bombers should be honoured", Corbyn calling Hamas "friends", etc.
And all of them with the strapline: "Weak on terrorism; weak on the causes of terrorism."
Is everyone in the Tory party asleep?
I don't like May and don't want a huge majority but Labour under Corbyn would IMO be a real disaster for Britain. A moral disaster above all.
Martin Boon reporting on a Twitter that this weekends polls will be interesting. Make of that what you will
Bugger me, the teasers are the worst.
Agreed. Poll rampers should be punished in a cruel and unusual fashion by being forced to attend a five hour dinner party with Lynton Crosby and Paul Dacre.
Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?
This. They definitely won't, it might have dampened a few Tories to become 'non voters' for a few days. That is until the threat of Corbyn is real and they'll become blues again on polling days.
The Labour growth is just non voters and a few more fed up kippers being turned on by the anti elite, freebie bandwagon.
If there was significant movement from Blue to Red then the Tories should worry, but polling in the 40s will mean they will win, possible comfortably.
@paulwaugh: Corbyn warns Tories: "Let’s hv our arguments without impugning anyone’s patriotism + w/out diluting unity w/ which we stand against terror."
One thing that is nagging away is that Momentum asked their members a while back to sign up to survey panels. Could YouGov have been infiltrated? You'd need thousands of people to sign up but not impossible...
Will be interesting to see if phone polls show any different.
Christ. Now the Tories are borrowing the Corbynites' tin-foil-hats.
Desperate times, indeed.
Just to point out I'm not a PB Tory. I'm looking for a reason why the numbers might not match the anecdotal evidence.
But the numbers DO match the anecdotal evidence. Everyone hated that Manifesto and TMay made herself look like a weak & wobbly idiot. Polling shows this, canvassers report it, I'm hearing it from friends and family
Strong and Stable Corbyn backing the police and security services against Mrs Weak and Wobblys cuts .
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
It has come to this. I've voted ABL for thirty years. Yet this year they offer me (well mainly my children( a clear and unequivocal £54k bung. I simply can;t decide whether I would be a lunatic to ever vote for Corbyn, or an absolute lunatic not to.
I though BREXIT was lunacy. Yet the sun keeps coming up every morning. I thought Trump was lunacy. Yet I see no change (yet) in the world. I can't be alone in thinking that when the doom-mongers tell us that a paradigm shift will be disastrous, maybe they're going to be wrong again.
Still, for the first time I am genuinely a floater.
But the truth is... there is no bung.
You and your children will end up paying much more for it.
Yes but me and my children and 60 million other will all be paying a share.
Indeed, it's a bonkers policy and its absolutely counter to my beliefs. But £54k (of my kid's money) is a big saving. I think I'm been bought, yet curiously I don't feel dirty.
Either way I genuinely believe that the 18-24 voting percentages will be up on last time, significantly. I just wonder how many parents as as easily swayed as me.
In the end this election will come down which is more important for people -
Securing Brexit or securing their inheritances/fuel allowances etc.
The majority of people didn't vote for Brexit because of a deep philosophical agreement with national sovereignty. They voted for it because Leave promised them lots of sweeties and because it was a chance to stick it to the Establishment. Voting Corbyn offers them the same opportunity.
Until this election, from my first vote in 97 I have always voted Labour, I was a member until 2015
I've voted Lib Dem all be it in Wythenshawe & Sale East where Labour weigh their votes.
I have a horrible feeling OGH could have his collar felt for publishing that information, perhaps you should anonymise the party you voted for.
How on earth can it be an offence to say how you voted??? Is that any different from asking people how they WILL vote? Should we lock up opinion pollsters then?
I see that after a 16 month reign in the top slot, the liberal elite is no longer public enemy number one.
It seems that the Leavers are running into what we might call the 7 minute abs problem. If you peddle a nasty reactionary fantasy to angry fearful people, there's always the risk of being successfully outcrazied by another salesman.
But didn't a certain wise owl write:
'And so the rest of the campaign is likely to be dominated by security concerns. This is an unmitigated disaster for Jeremy Corbyn, who the public strongly distrust on the subject. It is far too late for him to regain their confidence on this subject now.'
Oh he writes nonsense most of the time. I wouldn't put any credence in his views.
One thing is for sure, and possibly to the Tories' advantage, everyone I know is now well aware that Labour are surging, and might even win.
I've had several close friends and family members, say, unprompted, "I'm extremely worried now" (if they are Tories). The floating voters have just been incredulous at the implosion of the Tory campaign and the stupidity of TMay.
Conclusion?
With the one minor caveat that I know absolutely nothing about British politics and have got almost everything wrong, I reckon TMay will scrape to a 50 seat majority, but she will always be damaged (If she gets less than 30, she will be out; if she loses her maj, she will be banished to Foulda)
This means Corbyn will stay on. So we will be one swing of the political pendulum from quasi-Marxist government. Great.
"So we will be one swing of the political pendulum from quasi-Marxist government."
While negotiating the rapids of Brexit...
One other point which hasn't had a lot of discussion during the current flap is the schools funding squeeze - compounded by the 'fairer funding formula'. One the government's own figures, average per pupil funding will fall in real terms by around three percent over the course of the next parliament. That doesn't sound massive, but when most of your costs (salaries) are rising outside of your control, it's extremely difficult. For the 'fairer funding' losers, it's going to be more than difficult. And it's not just teachers who are unhappy.
Again the government presentation - "we are spending a record amount" mantra - is poor, when everyone knows per-pupil funding is falling. The clearly undercosted figures for their free breakfast scheme another example.
... and I know of a couple of local primary schools (with rising pupil rolls) announcing redundancies this week.
This election is going to prove who is really top dog in affecting voter behaviour. Will it be the print newspapers with their solid backing of May come polling day or the social media frenzy where voters are being won over by comments, likes and shares.?
As betting men we should all know the papers won't support a loser, and we know who the papers are supporting don't we.
Corbyn just secured a few hundred thousand more votes. This is happening.
Where - Aleppo ?
Much as it pains me to say it as I think he's a scumbag, he's talking directly to those who feel let down, disenfranchised and disenchanted. It's a very specific targeting.
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
There was that kid who bet big on Corbyn to be PM? (For his sake I hope he has taken some insurance now)
I'm with SeanT. This is beyond belief. I literally can't believe these numbers. Maybe it will prove to be very different on election night.
Relieved I have a hedge bet on Lab most seats if this continues.
My only national bet is on a Tory majority of 200+. Tbh it could still happen. Lots of constituency small bets - largely on Labour seats I thought could resist the Tory tide.
But basically it all boils down to Sarah Olney after getting on at 25-1. I've hedged a bit but if she can do it I'll be very happy.
When did you get that bet on Sarah Olney winning at 25-1?
@BBCNormanS: Jeremy Corbyn will pledge to be "tough on terrorism ; tough on the causes of terrorism" #ge17 #blair
If he really does say this, doesn't it give the Tories the opening they need?
A few posters etc with Corbyn boasting about opposing anti-terror laws, Abbot's quotes about the intelligence services, McDonnell refusing to pay for intelligence, McDonnell saying that "bombers should be honoured", Corbyn calling Hamas "friends", etc.
And all of them with the strapline: "Weak on terrorism; weak on the causes of terrorism."
Is everyone in the Tory party asleep?
I don't like May and don't want a huge majority but Labour under Corbyn would IMO be a real disaster for Britain. A moral disaster above all.
Britain has already had one moral disaster in the last twelve months. But far too many of those wringing their hands this time around were oblivious to that one.
Until this election, from my first vote in 97 I have always voted Labour, I was a member until 2015
I've voted Lib Dem all be it in Wythenshawe & Sale East where Labour weigh their votes.
I have a horrible feeling OGH could have his collar felt for publishing that information, perhaps you should anonymise the party you voted for.
How on earth can it be an offence to say how you voted??? Is that any different from asking people how they WILL vote? Should we lock up opinion pollsters then?
I can see the 50 plus vote being very energised by a line something like 'imagine if we had ever said in winter 1940 that the war against Germany wasn't working' that's the sort of attack line the MSM will go with
Corbyn's argument is more as though we should stop helping the 'Nazis' taking over various countries abroad if we want to help stop them at home.
The destruction of Libya and Syria (both of which had - or still have thankfully in the latter case - autocratic secular governments implacably opposed to Islamist jihadis), for which the Tory government hold huge responsibility, is as though we helped the Nazis against the Soviet Union at the same time as trying to fight them at home.
Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?
They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.
So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
It has come to this. I've voted ABL for thirty years. Yet this year they offer me (well mainly my children( a clear and unequivocal £54k bung. I simply can;t decide whether I would be a lunatic to ever vote for Corbyn, or an absolute lunatic not to.
I though BREXIT was lunacy. Yet the sun keeps coming up every morning. I thought Trump was lunacy. Yet I see no change (yet) in the world. I can't be alone in thinking that when the doom-mongers tell us that a paradigm shift will be disastrous, maybe they're going to be wrong again.
Still, for the first time I am genuinely a floater.
But the truth is... there is no bung.
You and your children will end up paying much more for it.
You are right - but how many will look beyond the £9000 pa cut in their fees ?
No wars abroad without a chance of making us safer.
The PLP is being goaded here. Will they retaliate
If you seriously believe that Labour under Corbyn will provide more resources to fight terror, you must be absolutely deluded. Corbyn has consistently opposed all legislation aimed at fighting terror, his Shadow Chancellor has called for the intelligence services to be shut down, as has his Shadow Home Secretary. The idea that they will provide more resources or take the steps needed to deal with the terrorist threat is for the birds.
His policy is simple appeasement of the ideology behind the terrorists. It always has been. And it always will be.
If the Tories can make that simple case, they deserve to lose.
But it will be us, the British public, who will be the losers.
And at this point I feel a real rage that Britain may be on the verge of electing to government the useful and malign idiots of the Left who have done so much to side themselves with all those who excuse, explain away or justify the terrorists.
War in foreign lands may not be the answer. But refusing to recognize the evil we face for what it is and cosying up to it, as Corbyn and his pals have done for years is far worse. We can stop fighting abroad. But if we don't take steps here to defeat this poisonous ideology then not fighting wars will do nothing to make us safe. Appeasement never works.
So. Two weeks today. Corbyn's latest rallying speech to the comrades - from the podium in Downing Street.
It's going to happen. I just feel it in my bones. He's played a blinder in recent weeks, on any objective assessment Labour is completely owning this GE campaign. The Tories have been complacent and dull and offered nothing in a dogshit manifesto. They deserve to lose seats.
What an absolute effing disaster from the disaster of a party I have little option but to continue to support. In a thoroughly depressing week I am yet further depressed as this car crash continues to unfold.
I am no fan of Corbyn (as many here will know!!) but he has certainly completely out campaigned May, who has proved herself to be utterly inept in the crucible of a general election. Where we differ is that I still think the Tories will win big. That said, I also thought Clinton and Remain would win. In both those cases, however, I backed the opposite outcome as a value longshot. Labour now at least have come into view as a value longshot, from being completely out of the game two weeks ago.
I'd happily bet - given odds of sufficient value - that at 7.00 h on 9 June I wake up to a Tory majority greater than now. Maybe some strange seat gains and losses, admittedly, making the loss of Gower in 2015 look normal.
Under FPTP, hasn't Labour's voting efficiency been falling? It's no good piling up more Labour votes in Chester, Exeter, Bath or Cheltenham if one loses them in Darlington or Bishop Auckland and 20 seats rather like them. A gain of 15-20 Labour seats and a few from the SNP gives her a majority of around 50.
If the Tories cannot demolish Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott over matters of security and defence, then quite simply, they do not deserve to form the next government.
I can see the 50 plus vote being very energised by a line something like 'imagine if we had ever said in winter 1940 that the war against Germany wasn't working' that's the sort of attack line the MSM will go with
Corbyn's argument is more as though we should stop helping the 'Nazis' taking over various countries abroad if we want to help stop them at home.
The destruction of Libya and Syria (both of which had - or still have thankfully in the latter case - autocratic secular governments implacably opposed to Islamist jihadis), for which the Tory government hold huge responsibility, is as though we helped the Nazis against the Soviet Union at the same time as trying to fight them at home.
Didn't Cameron intervene in Libya to help the side that the Manc bomber supported ?
They seem to bomb us when we intervene, bomb us when we don't and bomb us when our young girls show their ankles.
Hey but I'm sure Jeremy can negotiate a peace deal with them - no problem.
This election is going to prove who is really top dog in affecting voter behaviour. Will it be the print newspapers with their solid backing of May come polling day or the social media frenzy where voters are being won over by comments, likes and shares.?
As betting men we should all know the papers won't support a loser, and we know who the papers are supporting don't we.
Well, it seems in America, social media played a big part in Trump winning.
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
It has come to this. I've voted ABL for thirty years. Yet this year they offer me (well mainly my children( a clear and unequivocal £54k bung. I simply can;t decide whether I would be a lunatic to ever vote for Corbyn, or an absolute lunatic not to.
I though BREXIT was lunacy. Yet the sun keeps coming up every morning. I thought Trump was lunacy. Yet I see no change (yet) in the world. I can't be alone in thinking that when the doom-mongers tell us that a paradigm shift will be disastrous, maybe they're going to be wrong again.
Still, for the first time I am genuinely a floater.
But the truth is... there is no bung.
You and your children will end up paying much more for it.
You are right - but how many will look beyond the £9000 pa cut in their fees ?
It is regressive, helping the middle class more than the less well off.
If the Tories cannot demolish Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott over matters of security and defence, then quite simply, they do not deserve to form the next government.
@BBCNormanS: Jeremy Corbyn will pledge to be "tough on terrorism ; tough on the causes of terrorism" #ge17 #blair
If he really does say this, doesn't it give the Tories the opening they need?
A few posters etc with Corbyn boasting about opposing anti-terror laws, Abbot's quotes about the intelligence services, McDonnell refusing to pay for intelligence, McDonnell saying that "bombers should be honoured", Corbyn calling Hamas "friends", etc.
And all of them with the strapline: "Weak on terrorism; weak on the causes of terrorism."
Is everyone in the Tory party asleep?
I don't like May and don't want a huge majority but Labour under Corbyn would IMO be a real disaster for Britain. A moral disaster above all.
Britain has already had one moral disaster in the last twelve months. But far too many of those wringing their hands this time around were oblivious to that one.
Not everyone was oblivious. And perhaps this one - if it happens - is part or a continuation of the same event.
Could it be that Manchester has actually hurt the Tories rather than helped? Not because of blame on May, but because
a) prior elections worldwide have shown almost no impact either way of terrorist attacks on voting (Spain 2004 was not because of the attack but due to the response). It's already factored in. We all know it exists and people have already taken that into consideration.
and
2a) the attack obviously derailed the news focus away from the tory cap u-turn on dementia tax. Wasn't it announced just the day before the attack? People had plenty of time to get worked up about the tax itself, but noone is talking about the cap / uturn now.
and 2b) the cap itself is a crap solution anyway. If you are worried about losing inheritance money (on giving or receiving end) then a cap is unlikely to reassure, because you are still going to lose out by voting tory. It's not enough of a u-turn, a dementia tax is a dementia tax, only now the richest pensioners keep more of their money proportionally than those poorer than them.
I can see the 50 plus vote being very energised by a line something like 'imagine if we had ever said in winter 1940 that the war against Germany wasn't working' that's the sort of attack line the MSM will go with
Corbyn's argument is more as though we should stop helping the 'Nazis' taking over various countries abroad if we want to help stop them at home.
The destruction of Libya and Syria (both of which had - or still have thankfully in the latter case - autocratic secular governments implacably opposed to Islamist jihadis), for which the Tory government hold huge responsibility, is as though we helped the Nazis against the Soviet Union at the same time as trying to fight them at home.
Didn't Cameron intervene in Libya to help the side that the Manc bomber supported ?
They seem to bomb us when we intervene, bomb us when we don't and bomb us when our young girls show their ankles.
Hey but I'm sure Jeremy can negotiate a peace deal with them - no problem.
Yes, exactly Cameron did help the jihadis in Libya. Helping anti-western terrorists abroad for narrow geopolitical advantage (to be harvested only by the super-rich establishment) without considering the obvious potential for blowback is precisely the point we are making.
Jermey Corbyn is not suggesting a peace deal. He is suggesting we stop actively assisting them and helping them abroad.
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
It has come to this. I've voted ABL for thirty years. Yet this year they offer me (well mainly my children( a clear and unequivocal £54k bung. I simply can;t decide whether I would be a lunatic to ever vote for Corbyn, or an absolute lunatic not to.
I though BREXIT was lunacy. Yet the sun keeps coming up every morning. I thought Trump was lunacy. Yet I see no change (yet) in the world. I can't be alone in thinking that when the doom-mongers tell us that a paradigm shift will be disastrous, maybe they're going to be wrong again.
Still, for the first time I am genuinely a floater.
But the truth is... there is no bung.
You and your children will end up paying much more for it.
Yes but me and my children and 60 million other will all be paying a share.
Indeed, it's a bonkers policy and its absolutely counter to my beliefs. But £54k (of my kid's money) is a big saving. I think I'm been bought, yet curiously I don't feel dirty.
Either way I genuinely believe that the 18-24 voting percentages will be up on last time, significantly. I just wonder how many parents as as easily swayed as me.
Interesting perhaps some of the poll movement among the 40 -50 year olds, the age group of the parents of the students and prospective students, is more driven by "the free" tuition fee bung rather than the social care "disaster"
An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Yes it is. And there are plenty of people with that informed understanding, such as former terrorists or those close to them, who are saying that Corbyn's understanding is utterly faulty.
So. Two weeks today. Corbyn's latest rallying speech to the comrades - from the podium in Downing Street.
It's going to happen. I just feel it in my bones. He's played a blinder in recent weeks, on any objective assessment Labour is completely owning this GE campaign. The Tories have been complacent and dull and offered nothing in a dogshit manifesto. They deserve to lose seats.
What an absolute effing disaster from the disaster of a party I have little option but to continue to support. In a thoroughly depressing week I am yet further depressed as this car crash continues to unfold.
I am no fan of Corbyn (as many here will know!!) but he has certainly completely out campaigned May, who has proved herself to be utterly inept in the crucible of a general election. Where we differ is that I still think the Tories will win big. That said, I also thought Clinton and Remain would win. In both those cases, however, I backed the opposite outcome as a value longshot. Labour now at least have come into view as a value longshot, from being completely out of the game two weeks ago.
I'd happily bet - given odds of sufficient value - that at 7.00 h on 9 June I wake up to a Tory majority greater than now. Maybe some strange seat gains and losses, admittedly, making the loss of Gower in 2015 look normal.
Under FPTP, hasn't Labour's voting efficiency been falling? It's no good piling up more Labour votes in Chester, Exeter, Bath or Cheltenham if one loses them in Darlington or Bishop Auckland and 20 seats rather like them. A gain of 15-20 Labour seats and a few from the SNP gives her a majority of around 50.
I'd have thought Labour votes in Chester would be very useful.
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
It has come to this. I've voted ABL for thirty years. Yet this year they offer me (well mainly my children( a clear and unequivocal £54k bung. I simply can;t decide whether I would be a lunatic to ever vote for Corbyn, or an absolute lunatic not to.
I though BREXIT was lunacy. Yet the sun keeps coming up every morning. I thought Trump was lunacy. Yet I see no change (yet) in the world. I can't be alone in thinking that when the doom-mongers tell us that a paradigm shift will be disastrous, maybe they're going to be wrong again.
Still, for the first time I am genuinely a floater.
Remember that borrowing is just delayed taxation - the "bung" is far from unequivocal, I'm afraid.
This election is going to prove who is really top dog in affecting voter behaviour. Will it be the print newspapers with their solid backing of May come polling day or the social media frenzy where voters are being won over by comments, likes and shares.?
As betting men we should all know the papers won't support a loser, and we know who the papers are supporting don't we.
Fascinating indeed.
I think the print media will win, as they always do. Their alliances have run the country since 1979.
So is anyone here happy to stand up and say unequivocally that turning Libya, Iraq and Syria into failed states and assisting Saudi Arabia in its quest to spread the poisonous perversions of Wahabism across the globe has made us safer?
If the Tories cannot demolish Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott over matters of security and defence, then quite simply, they do not deserve to form the next government.
It has now got to the stage that the sort of personal attacks on Corbyn et al that you want will be counter productive . To retrieve the position the Conservatives need to send out positive messages for people to vote for them but this seems beyond Mrs W and W .
So is anyone here happy to stand up and say unequivocally that turning Libya, Iraq and Syria into failed states and assisting Saudi Arabia in its quest to spread the poisonous perversions of Wahabism across the globe has made us safer?
I can say unequivocally that complaining about action in Libya and inaction in Syria is having your cake and eating it.
This election is going to prove who is really top dog in affecting voter behaviour. Will it be the print newspapers with their solid backing of May come polling day or the social media frenzy where voters are being won over by comments, likes and shares.?
As betting men we should all know the papers won't support a loser, and we know who the papers are supporting don't we.
Nobody under 60 in Britain has ever voted in a general election where the Sun hasn't backed the winner.
So. Two weeks today. Corbyn's latest rallying speech to the comrades - from the podium in Downing Street.
It's going to happen. I just feel it in my bones. He's played a blinder in recent weeks, on any objective assessment Labour is completely owning this GE campaign. The Tories have been complacent and dull and offered nothing in a dogshit manifesto. They deserve to lose seats.
What an absolute effing disaster from the disaster of a party I have little option but to continue to support. In a thoroughly depressing week I am yet further depressed as this car crash continues to unfold.
I am no fan of Corbyn (as many here will know!!) but he has certainly completely out campaigned May, who has proved herself to be utterly inept in the crucible of a general election. Where we differ is that I still think the Tories will win big. That said, I also thought Clinton and Remain would win. In both those cases, however, I backed the opposite outcome as a value longshot. Labour now at least have come into view as a value longshot, from being completely out of the game two weeks ago.
I'd happily bet - given odds of sufficient value - that at 7.00 h on 9 June I wake up to a Tory majority greater than now. Maybe some strange seat gains and losses, admittedly, making the loss of Gower in 2015 look normal.
Under FPTP, hasn't Labour's voting efficiency been falling? It's no good piling up more Labour votes in Chester, Exeter, Bath or Cheltenham if one loses them in Darlington or Bishop Auckland and 20 seats rather like them. A gain of 15-20 Labour seats and a few from the SNP gives her a majority of around 50.
I'd have thought Labour votes in Chester would be very useful.
They only need the existing number of votes to keep Chester Labour. I know they have a perilously low majority. But it's FPTP and winner takes all.
So is anyone here happy to stand up and say unequivocally that turning Libya, Iraq and Syria into failed states and assisting Saudi Arabia in its quest to spread the poisonous perversions of Wahabism across the globe has made us safer?
I can say unequivocally that complaining about action in Libya and inaction in Syria is having your cake and eating it.
An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser who is a total pacifist who will not take decisive action when required to protect our way of life, who will not defend this country and will let Russia and China veto any war we ought to take part in. His free uncosted sweeties for all bribe will bankrupt the UK and make us the laughing stock of the world. He is the most dangerous politician and is a clear and present danger to the security of the UK. If he gets his hands anywhere near the levers of power we are all screwed, and the damage to the UK will be permanent. I fear for my childrens future if Labour win
One thing that is nagging away is that Momentum asked their members a while back to sign up to survey panels. Could YouGov have been infiltrated? You'd need thousands of people to sign up but not impossible...
Will be interesting to see if phone polls show any different.
Christ. Now the Tories are borrowing the Corbynites' tin-foil-hats.
Desperate times, indeed.
Just to point out I'm not a PB Tory. I'm looking for a reason why the numbers might not match the anecdotal evidence.
But the numbers DO match the anecdotal evidence. Everyone hated that Manifesto and TMay made herself look like a weak & wobbly idiot. Polling shows this, canvassers report it, I'm hearing it from friends and family
Strong and Stable Corbyn backing the police and security services against Mrs Weak and Wobblys cuts .
Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?
They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.
So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?
But are they? Isn't it more that Labour are hoovering up the LibDems and Greens and Commies and Don't Usually Vote, and the Tories are losing votes to Don't Knows?
There is a point (I would suggest already reached) at which Labour cannot make further progress without getting Tories to switch to them. And they will be a much harder nut to crack.
So is anyone here happy to stand up and say unequivocally that turning Libya, Iraq and Syria into failed states and assisting Saudi Arabia in its quest to spread the poisonous perversions of Wahabism across the globe has made us safer?
So are you saying that we should have intervened in Syria when we didn't, and shouldn't have intervened in Libya when we did?
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
It has come to this. I've voted ABL for thirty years. Yet this year they offer me (well mainly my children( a clear and unequivocal £54k bung. I simply can;t decide whether I would be a lunatic to ever vote for Corbyn, or an absolute lunatic not to.
I though BREXIT was lunacy. Yet the sun keeps coming up every morning. I thought Trump was lunacy. Yet I see no change (yet) in the world. I can't be alone in thinking that when the doom-mongers tell us that a paradigm shift will be disastrous, maybe they're going to be wrong again.
Still, for the first time I am genuinely a floater.
Remember that borrowing is just delayed taxation - the "bung" is far from unequivocal, I'm afraid.
No - it's also redistribution. Many might imagine themselves winners from it, even if that proves wrong.
And they only have to believe that for the next fortnight.
Could it be that Manchester has actually hurt the Tories rather than helped? Not because of blame on May, but because
a) prior elections worldwide have shown almost no impact either way of terrorist attacks on voting (Spain 2004 was not because of the attack but due to the response). It's already factored in. We all know it exists and people have already taken that into consideration.
and
2a) the attack obviously derailed the news focus away from the tory cap u-turn on dementia tax. Wasn't it announced just the day before the attack? People had plenty of time to get worked up about the tax itself, but noone is talking about the cap / uturn now.
and 2b) the cap itself is a crap solution anyway. If you are worried about losing inheritance money (on giving or receiving end) then a cap is unlikely to reassure, because you are still going to lose out by voting tory. It's not enough of a u-turn, a dementia tax is a dementia tax, only now the richest pensioners keep more of their money proportionally than those poorer than them.
A cap would have to be carefully legislated for - perhaps by using percentages rather than a monetary amount. How about 15% of the estate value/
So is anyone here happy to stand up and say unequivocally that turning Libya, Iraq and Syria into failed states and assisting Saudi Arabia in its quest to spread the poisonous perversions of Wahabism across the globe has made us safer?
I can say unequivocally that complaining about action in Libya and inaction in Syria is having your cake and eating it.
I'm not complaining about inaction in Syria. Our government has been deeply involved in sponsoring the worst kinds of jihadi militants (who fight side by side with al-Qaeda ffs) there for narrow and disastrous geopolitical 'advantage'. We have intervened there heavily, just via proxy. The worst kinds of proxy.
We are saying that our intervention in both countries has been a disaster and directly assisted global terrorism, literally in many cases arming jihadis, as well as creating the chaotic conditions in which they thrive.
Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?
They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.
So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?
It could be just a move from Con->DK/WNV and one from DK/WNV->Lab?
An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser who is a total pacifist who will not take decisive action when required to protect our way of life, who will not defend this country and will let Russia and China veto any war we ought to take part in. His free uncosted sweeties for all bribe will bankrupt the UK and make us the laughing stock of the world. He is the most dangerous politician and is a clear and present danger to the security of the UK. If he gets his hands anywhere near the levers of power we are all screwed, and the damage to the UK will be permanent. I fear for my childrens future if Labour win
And I fear for my grand childrens future if Mrs W and W and the Conservatives win .
I have come to the conclusion that I know fuck all about British politics. The only consolation is that no one else knows anything, either.
I cannot think of a serious commentator who predicted that we'd end up here, with Labour on 38 - 38!! - and on trend to take away the Tory majority. Only the maddest of Corbynista predicted that, and they also think the Zios organised 9/11, and reiki works.
The one thing I did get right, unfortunately, was my instant reaction to the Tory manifesto - OMFG disaster - and then my sudden temptation to vote for Corbyn. I made the same shift as millions of Brits. But I shifted back and I am utterly unsure as to whether my fellow citizens will follow me.
I know nussing. I am from Barthelona.
There was that kid who bet big on Corbyn to be PM? (For his sake I hope he has taken some insurance now)
I'm with SeanT. This is beyond belief. I literally can't believe these numbers. Maybe it will prove to be very different on election night.
Relieved I have a hedge bet on Lab most seats if this continues.
My only national bet is on a Tory majority of 200+. Tbh it could still happen. Lots of constituency small bets - largely on Labour seats I thought could resist the Tory tide.
But basically it all boils down to Sarah Olney after getting on at 25-1. I've hedged a bit but if she can do it I'll be very happy.
When did you get that bet on Sarah Olney winning at 25-1?
Tipped on here by someone a little while back. Betfair sportsbook. Long gone now.
One thing that is nagging away is that Momentum asked their members a while back to sign up to survey panels. Could YouGov have been infiltrated? You'd need thousands of people to sign up but not impossible...
Will be interesting to see if phone polls show any different.
Christ. Now the Tories are borrowing the Corbynites' tin-foil-hats.
Desperate times, indeed.
Just to point out I'm not a PB Tory. I'm looking for a reason why the numbers might not match the anecdotal evidence.
But the numbers DO match the anecdotal evidence. Everyone hated that Manifesto and TMay made herself look like a weak & wobbly idiot. Polling shows this, canvassers report it, I'm hearing it from friends and family
Strong and Stable Corbyn backing the police and security services against Mrs Weak and Wobblys cuts .
I thought you were Lib Dem not a Corbynista?
Mark is an anti-Tory. It doesn't matter what you're for so much as what you're against. That's the problem with ending up in government as the Lib Dems did: you have no choice but to be 'for' something, and the public will then hold you to account on it, whether you try to distance yourself or not. Hence the migration of those for whom politics is a matter of protest migrating from the Lib Dems and finding homes in places as diverse as UKIP or with Corbyn.
Comments
For them to now complain about Corbyn's un-costed manifesto...
WE HAVE HAD ENOUGH OF EXPERTS!!!
The war on Terror isn't working.
More resources to fight terror.
No wars abroad without a chance of making us safer.
The PLP is being goaded here. Will they retaliate
@iainjwatson: Jeremy corbyn says soldiers will only be deployed abroad where there is a clear need and outcome is lasting peace https://twitter.com/iainjwatson/status/868049233357807616/photo/1
Securing Brexit or securing their inheritances/fuel allowances etc.
Surrender monkey.
He really said that today.
@DPJHodges: "I do not want to make a narrow party political point" says Corbyn after spending 15 minutes blaming government policy for Manchester.
Everybody is out enjoying themselves..
Only spoke to a handful of people but felt like no change Post Manchester to me.
Lots of constituency small bets - largely on Labour seats I thought could resist the Tory tide.
But basically it all boils down to Sarah Olney after getting on at 25-1. I've hedged a bit but if she can do it I'll be very happy.
A few posters etc with Corbyn boasting about opposing anti-terror laws, Abbot's quotes about the intelligence services, McDonnell refusing to pay for intelligence, McDonnell saying that "bombers should be honoured", Corbyn calling Hamas "friends", etc.
And all of them with the strapline: "Weak on terrorism; weak on the causes of terrorism."
Is everyone in the Tory party asleep?
I don't like May and don't want a huge majority but Labour under Corbyn would IMO be a real disaster for Britain. A moral disaster above all.
The Labour growth is just non voters and a few more fed up kippers being turned on by the anti elite, freebie bandwagon.
If there was significant movement from Blue to Red then the Tories should worry, but polling in the 40s will mean they will win, possible comfortably.
I am in a very safe Tory Brexiteer seat, so a protest Lib Dem anti-Brexit vote is probably harmless.
And yet.
Yeah, right...
What happened to the bulldog spirit?
Indeed, it's a bonkers policy and its absolutely counter to my beliefs. But £54k (of my kid's money) is a big saving. I think I'm been bought, yet curiously I don't feel dirty.
Either way I genuinely believe that the 18-24 voting percentages will be up on last time, significantly. I just wonder how many parents as as easily swayed as me.
How on earth can it be an offence to say how you voted??? Is that any different from asking people how they WILL vote? Should we lock up opinion pollsters then?
Actually.....
While negotiating the rapids of Brexit...
One other point which hasn't had a lot of discussion during the current flap is the schools funding squeeze - compounded by the 'fairer funding formula'.
One the government's own figures, average per pupil funding will fall in real terms by around three percent over the course of the next parliament. That doesn't sound massive, but when most of your costs (salaries) are rising outside of your control, it's extremely difficult. For the 'fairer funding' losers, it's going to be more than difficult.
And it's not just teachers who are unhappy.
Again the government presentation - "we are spending a record amount" mantra - is poor, when everyone knows per-pupil funding is falling. The clearly undercosted figures for their free breakfast scheme another example.
... and I know of a couple of local primary schools (with rising pupil rolls) announcing redundancies this week.
As betting men we should all know the papers won't support a loser, and we know who the papers are supporting don't we.
Chortle.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-1983-1987
Kinnock was generally perceived to have had a good campaign and Thatcher a poor campaign.
We know what the result was in the end though...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11589297/Is-it-illegal-to-tweet-how-I-vote.html
The destruction of Libya and Syria (both of which had - or still have thankfully in the latter case - autocratic secular governments implacably opposed to Islamist jihadis), for which the Tory government hold huge responsibility, is as though we helped the Nazis against the Soviet Union at the same time as trying to fight them at home.
His policy is simple appeasement of the ideology behind the terrorists. It always has been. And it always will be.
If the Tories can make that simple case, they deserve to lose.
But it will be us, the British public, who will be the losers.
And at this point I feel a real rage that Britain may be on the verge of electing to government the useful and malign idiots of the Left who have done so much to side themselves with all those who excuse, explain away or justify the terrorists.
War in foreign lands may not be the answer. But refusing to recognize the evil we face for what it is and cosying up to it, as Corbyn and his pals have done for years is far worse. We can stop fighting abroad. But if we don't take steps here to defeat this poisonous ideology then not fighting wars will do nothing to make us safe. Appeasement never works.
Under FPTP, hasn't Labour's voting efficiency been falling? It's no good piling up more Labour votes in Chester, Exeter, Bath or Cheltenham if one loses them in Darlington or Bishop Auckland and 20 seats rather like them. A gain of 15-20 Labour seats and a few from the SNP gives her a majority of around 50.
They seem to bomb us when we intervene, bomb us when we don't and bomb us when our young girls show their ankles.
Hey but I'm sure Jeremy can negotiate a peace deal with them - no problem.
a) prior elections worldwide have shown almost no impact either way of terrorist attacks on voting (Spain 2004 was not because of the attack but due to the response). It's already factored in. We all know it exists and people have already taken that into consideration.
and
2a) the attack obviously derailed the news focus away from the tory cap u-turn on dementia tax. Wasn't it announced just the day before the attack? People had plenty of time to get worked up about the tax itself, but noone is talking about the cap / uturn now.
and 2b) the cap itself is a crap solution anyway. If you are worried about losing inheritance money (on giving or receiving end) then a cap is unlikely to reassure, because you are still going to lose out by voting tory. It's not enough of a u-turn, a dementia tax is a dementia tax, only now the richest pensioners keep more of their money proportionally than those poorer than them.
Have policies since 2001 made us safer or less safe
That is the test if Corbyn wins.
Committing troops only where there is a proper peace plan
Discuss.
Jermey Corbyn is not suggesting a peace deal. He is suggesting we stop actively assisting them and helping them abroad.
I think the print media will win, as they always do. Their alliances have run the country since 1979.
I know they have a perilously low majority. But it's FPTP and winner takes all.
There is a point (I would suggest already reached) at which Labour cannot make further progress without getting Tories to switch to them. And they will be a much harder nut to crack.
You opening fortune cookies?
And they only have to believe that for the next fortnight.
On the flip side May would ALWAYS commit troops anytime, anywhere, peace plan or not on the click of Trumps fingers.
You are arguing the latter keeps us safe!!
Hasnt worked to date why will it work in future?
We are saying that our intervention in both countries has been a disaster and directly assisted global terrorism, literally in many cases arming jihadis, as well as creating the chaotic conditions in which they thrive.
In both Libya AND Syria.
I don't see why it should be any different this time.
Long gone now.