Yougov does give us one further teasing piece of data - the direction of travel appears to have reversed since Manchester. That may play out too over the coming days.
Yougov does give us one further teasing piece of data - the direction of travel appears to have reversed since Manchester. That may play out too over the coming days.
Which implies that Labour were even closer than this immediately prior. Which is totally out of kilter with the other polls.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
The Labour poll rise has coincided with the launch of the Tory manifesto. It has little to do with a sudden love affair with Corbyn, as his personal polling shows. May still leads him by a country mile. However, if Corbyn were not Labour leader this general election would not be happening, we would probably still be in the EU and the Tories would probably be a few points in the polls behind Labour. Corbyn has changed everything. It does make him a pivotally important figure in this period of our history. How that plays out finally remains to be seen.
The narrative for the Tories right now is bad, to the point even small things that they could push past if they had big leads will cause them difficulty. Complacency has done for them, and that Corbyn's fans may have been right about his public appeal is shocking and concerning. It's at the stage where some who might have been ardently opposed to him will change their tune, because look at what's happening - he has had a surge in support, the Tories have lost their giant leads, they will think let's give him another chance.
Worrisome for labour and the country. I hope we don't end up like anti trump Americans. Unless Tories stop the surge, heck, maybe on,y fptp will see them over the line, not votes. Pathetic even a moist biscuit spines person has to contemplate that as a possibility.
Though the opposite can also happen - people who would have voted Labour thinking that Corbyn can't win now get nervous while people who wouldn't have voted Conservative now do so at fear of Corbyn.
Yougov does give us one further teasing piece of data - the direction of travel appears to have reversed since Manchester. That may play out too over the coming days.
Which implies that Labour were even closer than this immediately prior. Which is totally out of kilter with the other polls.
It looks that way but we have little data on how bad it got by may 22. It's an unknowable
Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.
Take their education policy for example. Pay for extra spending on state schools by raising taxes on private schools, including VAT on fees and business rates. Great idea in theory - until you realise costs, substantially increase pupil numbers and provide no additional funding whatsoever.
Just to say 'they won't let x happen, they'll pay for it somehow' is no guarantee it will happen. Look at the Chavez/Maduro government (which Corbyn and Macdonnell admire so much) which made very similar pledges to buy votes and has totally destroyed a country with far sounder economic fundamentals than we have.
I think we've had this discussion on private schools before. 20% VAT is not going to lead to most pupils dropping out of private school. Parents will pay more, schools will cut costs, parents will choose a cheaper private option, life will go on.
It seems obvious to me that it is possible for government to scrap tuition fees without bankrupting universities. Labour have proposed tax changes to pay for the policy. In government they would be able to make further tax changes or reduce spending elsewhere if the changes they had suggested would be insufficient.
Labour will not turn into Venezuela - and your suggestion that Venezuela had far sounder economic fundamentals than us is very strange.
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole, though the grandiose policies come from the same mindset. If Corbn were to get in, then 70s Britain is probably closer to the mark.
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole.
Venezuela didn't start out like it is. It started with voting in a guy who thinks like Corbyn.
We were very lucky in the 70s, and Thatcher (hated or not) turned it around. There is no guarantee that will happen this time.
To anyone wanting to be successful, there will be literally no point setting up a business in this country under Corbyn and his cult.
That's not hyperbole, it's common sense.
Venezuela doesn't have a centuries old tradition of democracy; universal comprehensive education; great universities; infrastructure built from Victorian times on., etc A Corbyn premiership would likely do a great deal of damage - particularly when coupled with Brexit - but it's not Venezuela.
In the unlikely event that May were to be comprehensively rejected, there would at least a question mark over the progress of Brexit.
It is Brexit which will ensure May wins, whatever the size of her majority or lead in seats she is still increasing the Tory voteshare thanks to UKIP voters, if Brexit was threatened those voters would return to UKIP and more would join them
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
That's the establishment of the NI Assembly, it's not really the GFA itself. Although admitting his side had lost is worse than the alternative.
He definitely spoke/voted against the Anglo-Irish Agreement.
"The Bill has one simple overriding purpose--to implement the Belfast agreement. The agreement was negotiated by the Northern Ireland parties and agreed on Good Friday."
Well. I told you counter intuitive laws would come into play. The things to note are in my opinion that the Tory vote is not collapsing. It has shrunk a little but by no more than 2-3 points thus far which may be a little peeling off and increased certainty in the anti vote. Labour are surging and surging hard, but 38 is a full 3 above their highest score right up to u turn gate, is this move going to be Consolidated? If this were all down to a disastrous manifesto would the blue score not be taking a much bigger hit? Something else is going on here and I think it's the anti establishment vote turning out or promising to. I can see a result of low to mid 40s plays mid to high 30s playing out with some crazy gains and losses, but I'd say labour as it stands look good for in the 200s. And yet...... and yet that doesn't match any of the mood music or expectations management. Something is afoot and as such I'm restricting myself to buttons bets on constituencies. There's too much potential to lose big out there right now. As for Corbyn's speech today.... Law of counter intuitives!
There is also a big difference between Labour 38% UNS and the reappearance of significant anti-Tory tactical voting in every constituency. We don't have enough evidence to tell the difference, largely because there has so far been little analysis of why the polls are moving as almost no-one expected.
I've a feeling now it's down to the youth vote turning out or not along with the Brexiteers who normally don't bother. A hard 43 versus a soft 38 or a soft 43 versus a hard 38
Don't the pollsters tend to mark down these groups as less likely to vote? They will have been 'in the base' for polling since the start of the campaign, after all.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Although its unlikely I'm beginning to warm to the idea of PM Corbyn, the fall out on here would dwarf that after the referendum, which was pure entertainment.
Strangely enough so am I. The idea of an anti-American peacenik is becoming increasingly appealing.
If only a peacenik were being offered...
Surely someone who calls themselves 'ThreeQuidder' is a supporter of Corbyn. Didn't you all pay your three quids to get him elected? You should be out electioneering.....
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.
Voters want a tough border control message from May
Well. I told you counter intuitive laws would come into play. The things to note are in my opinion that the Tory vote is not collapsing. It has shrunk a little but by no more than 2-3 points thus far which may be a little peeling off and increased certainty in the anti vote. Labour are surging and surging hard, but 38 is a full 3 above their highest score right up to u turn gate, is this move going to be Consolidated? If this were all down to a disastrous manifesto would the blue score not be taking a much bigger hit? Something else is going on here and I think it's the anti establishment vote turning out or promising to. I can see a result of low to mid 40s plays mid to high 30s playing out with some crazy gains and losses, but I'd say labour as it stands look good for in the 200s. And yet...... and yet that doesn't match any of the mood music or expectations management. Something is afoot and as such I'm restricting myself to buttons bets on constituencies. There's too much potential to lose big out there right now. As for Corbyn's speech today.... Law of counter intuitives!
There is also a big difference between Labour 38% UNS and the reappearance of significant anti-Tory tactical voting in every constituency. We don't have enough evidence to tell the difference, largely because there has so far been little analysis of why the polls are moving as almost no-one expected.
I've a feeling now it's down to the youth vote turning out or not along with the Brexiteers who normally don't bother. A hard 43 versus a soft 38 or a soft 43 versus a hard 38
Don't the pollsters tend to mark down these groups as less likely to vote? They will have been 'in the base' for polling since the start of the campaign, after all.
Got to admit I don't know wtf is going On! That's why I'm sitting this one out in the main betting wise. I'm astonished at Labour's rise, but maybe the country really is getting very very tired of the establishment.
Mr. B, I believe you saw (and derided ) my 6.5 No Safety Car bet.
I think it's astonishing that Vettel is 1.9 to win and Raikkonen 19 (down to 19.5 on Betfair, I put a little on him at 27).
If the Ferrari *is* the fastest car, then 19 for Raikkonen to win each way is worth consideration.
With you on Raikkonen, the only danger is that Ferrari team orders conspire to switch the cars in favour of the German championship leader.
With the new tyres, it's going to be a clear one stop race at a circuit where track position counts for everything (ask Nigel Mansell about the latter point). I think the value might be with the Mercedes-powered cars (inc the FI cars and Massa) who will turn their engines up to 11 for one lap in Q3.
No SC is a great bet, was a good value loser last year in the rain and the forecast is for the sun to shine on Sunday.
Take their education policy for example. Pay for extra spending on state schools by raising taxes on private schools, including VAT on fees and business rates. Great idea in theory - until you realise costs, substantially increase pupil numbers and provide no additional funding whatsoever.
Just to say 'they won't let x happen, they'll pay for it somehow' is no guarantee it will happen. Look at the Chavez/Maduro government (which Corbyn and Macdonnell admire so much) which made very similar pledges to buy votes and has totally destroyed a country with far sounder economic fundamentals than we have.
I think we've had this discussion on private schools before. 20% VAT is not going to lead to most pupils dropping out of private school. Parents will pay more, schools will cut costs, parents will choose a cheaper private option, life will go on.
It seems obvious to me that it is possible for government to scrap tuition fees without bankrupting universities. Labour have proposed tax changes to pay for the policy. In government they would be able to make further tax changes or reduce spending elsewhere if the changes they had suggested would be insufficient.
Labour will not turn into Venezuela - and your suggestion that Venezuela had far sounder economic fundamentals than us is very strange.
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole, though the grandiose policies come from the same mindset. If Corbn were to get in, then 70s Britain is probably closer to the mark.
'Venezuela' is clearly hyperbole.
Venezuela didn't start out like it is. It started with voting in a guy who thinks like Corbyn.
We were very lucky in the 70s, and Thatcher (hated or not) turned it around. There is no guarantee that will happen this time.
To anyone wanting to be successful, there will be literally no point setting up a business in this country under Corbyn and his cult.
That's not hyperbole, it's common sense.
A Corbyn premiership would likely do a great deal of damage - particularly when coupled with Brexit - but it's not Venezuela.
In the unlikely event that May were to be comprehensively rejected, there would at least a question mark over the progress of Brexit.
It is Brexit which will ensure May wins, whatever the size of her majority or lead in seats she is still increasing the Tory voteshare thanks to UKIP voters, if Brexit was threatened those voters would return to UKIP and more would join them
Ensure she wins but without the really strong hand she said the election would give her. A similar majority is now possible , more do than a landslide.
Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.
Voters want a tough border control message from May
@BBCNormanS: Jeremy Corbyn will pledge to be "tough on terrorism ; tough on the causes of terrorism" #ge17 #blair
i take it that means sanctions against Israel.
I hope so. Against this government of Israel. Israel under a Labour led coalition, genuinely seeking peace and gradually getting out of settlements in occupied land will be different.
The narrative for the Tories right now is bad, to the point even small things that they could push past if they had big leads will cause them difficulty. Complacency has done for them, and that Corbyn's fans may have been right about his public appeal is shocking and concerning. It's at the stage where some who might have been ardently opposed to him will change their tune, because look at what's happening - he has had a surge in support, the Tories have lost their giant leads, they will think let's give him another chance.
Worrisome for labour and the country. I hope we don't end up like anti trump Americans. Unless Tories stop the surge, heck, maybe on,y fptp will see them over the line, not votes. Pathetic even a moist biscuit spines person has to contemplate that as a possibility.
Though the opposite can also happen - people who would have voted Labour thinking that Corbyn can't win now get nervous while people who wouldn't have voted Conservative now do so at fear of Corbyn.
Perhaps, but if so we will see a movement away from lab and toward Con. but lab have kept rising so even mid 30s doesn't worry these anti Corbyn's, so even if 38 does, it won't fall back far
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Southam has been repeating this despite having been pointed out to him before.
He's always struck me as a very fair minded poster (you can tell because we often agree ) - so I assumed he was just mistaken. Corbyn did vote against Anglo Irish agreement of 1985 - but that was different.
Although its unlikely I'm beginning to warm to the idea of PM Corbyn, the fall out on here would dwarf that after the referendum, which was pure entertainment.
Strangely enough so am I. The idea of an anti-American peacenik is becoming increasingly appealing.
If only a peacenik were being offered...
Surely someone who calls themselves 'ThreeQuidder' is a supporter of Corbyn. Didn't you all pay your three quids to get him elected? You should be out electioneering.....
Roger, I voted for Liz Kendall. This is a matter of public record.
Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.
Voters want a tough border control message from May
Voters want a competence message from May.
I have no idea what voters want. I don't even know what I want.
Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.
Voters want a tough border control message from May
Voters want a competence message from May.
I have no idea what voters want. I don't even know what I want.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
The Labour poll rise has coincided with the launch of the Tory manifesto. It has little to do with a sudden love affair with Corbyn, as his personal polling shows. May still leads him by a country mile. However, if Corbyn were not Labour leader this general election would not be happening, we would probably still be in the EU and the Tories would probably be a few points in the polls behind Labour. Corbyn has changed everything. It does make him a pivotally important figure in this period of our history. How that plays out finally remains to be seen.
Why do you think he is outpolling Ed?
Why do you misrepresent him on the GFA vote?
He is outpolling Ed because England is returning to a two-party system. Whether he gets Ed's actual result remains to be seen. Given the UKIP collapse, he should be doing that at an absolute minimum. After all, he did describe the 2015 result as a disaster. I got it wrong about the GFA and have corrected. However, h did make Abbott shadow home secretary and she explicitly supported the IRA. He also made McDonnell, who did oppose the GFA, his shadow chancellor.
Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.
Voters want a tough border control message from May
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Southam has been repeating this despite having been pointed out to him before.
He's always struck me as a very fair minded poster (you can tell because we often agree ) - so I assumed he was just mistaken. Corbyn did vote against Anglo Irish agreement of 1985 - but that was different.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
The Labour poll rise has coincided with the launch of the Tory manifesto. It has little to do with a sudden love affair with Corbyn, as his personal polling shows. May still leads him by a country mile. However, if Corbyn were not Labour leader this general election would not be happening, we would probably still be in the EU and the Tories would probably be a few points in the polls behind Labour. Corbyn has changed everything. It does make him a pivotally important figure in this period of our history. How that plays out finally remains to be seen.
Why do you think he is outpolling Ed?
Why do you misrepresent him on the GFA vote?
He is outpolling Ed because England is returning to a two-party system. Whether he gets Ed's actual result remains to be seen. Given the UKIP collapse, he should be doing that at an absolute minimum. After all, he did describe the 2015 result as a disaster. I got it wrong about the GFA and have corrected. However, h did make Abbott shadow home secretary and she explicitly supported the IRA. He also made McDonnell, who did oppose the GFA, his shadow chancellor.
Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.
Voters want a tough border control message from May
Voters want a competence message from May.
I have no idea what voters want. I don't even know what I want.
So Corbyn has almost doubled his best leader ratings.
Is there any point at all in doing leader rating comparisons for people like Umunna or Yvette? Corbyn has had two leadership elections and two years at the helm, you'd think the public had a settled view on him by now, but no, the campaign changes things....
The settled view was based on the usual OTT media caricature. Anyone is better than their caricature, and he's having the chance to present himself through the TV and social media unfiltered. People think they're going to hear Arthur Scargill Mk 2, and find they're hearing a mild schoolteacher talking reasonably. When the press then say "But he's a terrorist sympathiser" it strikes many as simply implausible.
May has to increase her majority otherwise there will be pressure on her from the party. I think she would take a majority of 50 plus right now if she was offered it.
If the Conservatives don't get a majority at all or they do but it's reduced she is finished. The 22 will get those letters.
The narrative for the Tories right now is bad, to the point even small things that they could push past if they had big leads will cause them difficulty. Complacency has done for them, and that Corbyn's fans may have been right about his public appeal is shocking and concerning. It's at the stage where some who might have been ardently opposed to him will change their tune, because look at what's happening - he has had a surge in support, the Tories have lost their giant leads, they will think let's give him another chance.
Worrisome for labour and the country. I hope we don't end up like anti trump Americans. Unless Tories stop the surge, heck, maybe on,y fptp will see them over the line, not votes. Pathetic even a moist biscuit spines person has to contemplate that as a possibility.
Though the opposite can also happen - people who would have voted Labour thinking that Corbyn can't win now get nervous while people who wouldn't have voted Conservative now do so at fear of Corbyn.
Perhaps, but if so we will see a movement away from lab and toward Con. but lab have kept rising so even mid 30s doesn't worry these anti Corbyn's, so even if 38 does, it won't fall back far
There's a timelag between polls being taken, polls being reported and voter shifts.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
The Labour poll rise has coincided with the launch of the Tory manifesto. It has little to do with a sudden love affair with Corbyn, as his personal polling shows. May still leads him by a country mile.Corbyn has changed everything. It does make him a pivotally important figure in this period of our history. How that plays out finally remains to be seen.
Why do you think he is outpolling Ed?
Why do you misrepresent him on the GFA vote?
He is outpolling Ed because England is returning to a two-party system. Whether he gets Ed's actual result remains to be seen. Given the UKIP collapse, he should be doing that at an absolute minimum. After all, he did describe the 2015 result as a disaster. I got it wrong about the GFA and have corrected. However, h did make Abbott shadow home secretary and she explicitly supported the IRA. He also made McDonnell, who did oppose the GFA, his shadow chancellor.
And, people are still prepared to vote for him.
In their droves. Those who said people won't care were right. It's not enough to see him over the line, but people like him and his policies more than we thought, or they hate Tories enough to vote for Corbyn no matter what.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
That Corbyn sounds more reasonable than I believe he is no longer strikes me as funny. Labour are stuck with him, what will all those rebellious moaning MPs do when he dies so much better than they said, again?
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
The of our history. How that plays out finally remains to be seen.
Why do you think he is outpolling Ed?
Why do you misrepresent him on the GFA vote?
He is outpolling Ed because England is returning to a two-party system. Whether he gets Ed's actual result remains to be seen. Given the UKIP collapse, he should be doing that at an absolute minimum. After all, he did describe the 2015 result as a disaster. I got it wrong about the GFA and have corrected. However, h did make Abbott shadow home secretary and she explicitly supported the IRA. He also made McDonnell, who did oppose the GFA, his shadow chancellor.
And, people are still prepared to vote for him.
Absolutely. We voted for Brexit, after all; and he is the genuine anti-establishment candidate who really would shake things up amongst the elite. Corbyn will lose, but the Labour surge should give all sensible Tories very considerable pause for thought about Theresa May's capabilities.
Tory manifesto plans imply “another five years of austerity”, the IFS says.
Labour manifesto plans would raises taxes to “their highest ever peacetime level”, the IFS says. It also says Labour’s plans to expand expand the size of the state “would not work”.
The narrative for the Tories right now is bad, to the point even small things that they could push past if they had big leads will cause them difficulty. Complacency has done for them, and that Corbyn's fans may have been right about his public appeal is shocking and concerning. It's at the stage where some who might have been ardently opposed to him will change their tune, because look at what's happening - he has had a surge in support, the Tories have lost their giant leads, they will think let's give him another chance.
Worrisome for labour and the country. I hope we don't end up like anti trump Americans. Unless Tories stop the surge, heck, maybe on,y fptp will see them over the line, not votes. Pathetic even a moist biscuit spines person has to contemplate that as a possibility.
Though the opposite can also happen - people who would have voted Labour thinking that Corbyn can't win now get nervous while people who wouldn't have voted Conservative now do so at fear of Corbyn.
Perhaps, but if so we will see a movement away from lab and toward Con. but lab have kept rising so even mid 30s doesn't worry these anti Corbyn's, so even if 38 does, it won't fall back far
There's a timelag between polls being taken, polls being reported and voter shifts.
It was widely reported the lead went below 10. Days later it decreases even more, the lag had no effect in halting the move in that direction, or it would have fallen even more but for a late reaction.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Would Liz Kendall be polling at 38% though.
It's time for the masses to listen to what Corbyn thinks now and decide if his vision is better than the hapless alternative.
The of our history. How that plays out finally remains to be seen.
Why do you think he is outpolling Ed?
Why do you misrepresent him on the GFA vote?
He is outpolling Ed because England is returning to a two-party system. Whether he gets Ed's actual result remains to be seen. Given the UKIP collapse, he should be doing that at an absolute minimum. After all, he did describe the 2015 result as a disaster. I got it wrong about the GFA and have corrected. However, h did make Abbott shadow home secretary and she explicitly supported the IRA. He also made McDonnell, who did oppose the GFA, his shadow chancellor.
And, people are still prepared to vote for him.
Absolutely. We voted for Brexit, after all; and he is the genuine anti-establishment candidate who really would shake things up amongst the elite. Corbyn will lose, but the Labour surge should give all sensible Tories very considerable pause for thought about Theresa May's capabilities.
Imagine a situation where there is anti-Tory tactical voting, and we end up with the LDs on (say) 20, Labour on 240, the SNP on 40 and the Tories on around 320.
The LibDems will not enter into a coalition with the Conservative Party again, and the numbers simply don't work for an "anti-Tory" coalition.
What, other than chaos, happens next? My guess is that you'd have a weak minority Conservative government that fell at the recession.
On topic, the move to Labour seems to predate the manifesto launches. It starts in late April, which I think it coincides with me visiting Britain. I can't say for sure that there was a causal link but I did have my wifi hotspot broadcasting the SSID "Theresa May isn't very good".
Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.
Voters want a tough border control message from May
Voters want a competence message from May.
I have no idea what voters want. I don't even know what I want.
You want an owl.
This is, for me, a really important point.
I have been promised an owl. I am entitled to my owl.
That Corbyn sounds more reasonable than I believe he is no longer strikes me as funny. Labour are stuck with him, what will all those rebellious moaning MPs do when he dies so much better than they said, again?
Ironically, some of those MPs may win because of him.
That Corbyn sounds more reasonable than I believe he is no longer strikes me as funny. Labour are stuck with him, what will all those rebellious moaning MPs do when he dies so much better than they said, again?
It is dangerous: On the surface, Corbyn now does 'sound' reasonable.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Yep, my mistake. It was McDonnell who opposed the GFA.
No -- you are mixing up the Good Friday Agreement (which had widespread support) with the earlier Anglo-Irish Agreement which was opposed by Corbyn and co, and some Conservative MPs, and unionists and nationalists.
Are iFS respected neutrals or are they thought of as leaning one way or another?
That I don't know answers whether their opinion will sway many people, since if people don't know either, it will be easy for allsides to dismiss any criticism.
That Corbyn sounds more reasonable than I believe he is no longer strikes me as funny. Labour are stuck with him, what will all those rebellious moaning MPs do when he dies so much better than they said, again?
Ironically, some of those MPs may win because of him.
Imagine a situation where there is anti-Tory tactical voting, and we end up with the LDs on (say) 20, Labour on 240, the SNP on 40 and the Tories on around 320.
The LibDems will not enter into a coalition with the Conservative Party again, and the numbers simply don't work for an "anti-Tory" coalition.
What, other than chaos, happens next? My guess is that you'd have a weak minority Conservative government that fell at the recession.
What backlash? The PB Tory backlash? Be afraid Jeremy, be very afraid!
"Does anyone believe Labour are really as high as 25%"
Just about 25%, I'd say. As I have kept on writing. Just vote for us to stop a Tory majority 0f 100+.
LABOUR CANNOT WIN !! CORBYN WILL NOT BE PRIME MINISTER !!!!
A friendly word of advice.
The joke was funny the first few times - but it's getting a bit stale now.
Surely, you are not thinking the unthinkable, are you ?
Not any more. The unthinkable for me was a TMay landslide (and I posted as much in a thread a couple of days ago).
The era of the "professional politician" ........ mediocre the lot of them. (Honourable exception for Nicola Sturgeon, who is not faultless even so)
I'd take a team of Sturgeon, Farron and Lucas/Bartley over May, Hammond & Boris/Davis or Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott/Thornberry any day. Especially if Leanne joins in.
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
Today Jeremy Corbyn is going to demonstrate precisely why he is unelectable.
Of course. Corbyn's judgment on these matters is hopeless. He was crazy to oppose the invasion of Iraq, which was such a huge contribution to peace and stability in the Middle East. We must trust the people who supported that policy to keep us safe.
He was crazy to vote against the Good Friday Agreement and all measures that have ever been put in front of Parliament designed to prevent terrorism. He was crazy to take money from the Iranian government and to call Hamas his friends. He was even stupider to make a man who wants to shut down MI5 and disarm all police officers his shadow chancellor. He was downright despicable to remain chair of a group that openly advocating the killing of British soldiers. Opposing Iraq has got Corbyn all the support he is ever going to get. He needs a lot more than that to be PM. And it is his own record - in terms of votes, actions and speeches - that will ensure it never happens.
We've established that he didn't vote against the Good Friday Agreement. It was the Anglo-Irish Agreement he voted against.
From interview with Sophie Ridge last Sunday: "I’ve always wanted there to be peace and I really welcomed the Good Friday Agreement and all the achievements it has made since then."
Are iFS respected neutrals or are they thought of as leaning one way or another?
That I don't know answers whether their opinion will sway many people, since if people don't know either, it will be easy for allsides to dismiss any criticism.
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
Are iFS respected neutrals or are they thought of as leaning one way or another?
That I don't know answers whether their opinion will sway many people, since if people don't know either, it will be easy for allsides to dismiss any criticism.
I think they are very well respected technically. Not as expert on macroeconomics I've heard.
The likes of John Redwood are often quite critical of them.
Imagine most people don't pay a huge amount of attention to them.
Isn't the crucial question whether the narrowing of the Conservative lead is (1) a trend that will continue in the next few weeks, or (2) a reaction to specific past events that has run its course?
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
That's the key. It isn't just that labour have recovered support that will falll as people consider Corbyn. They have looked at him and said, he isn't as bad as they say. I find that amazing, but that's people. And it's why it's too late for negative stuff to work. It will look desperate in the face of his surge.
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.
Voters want a tough border control message from May
Viewers in NI will have their own, much less tough border control message of course.
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
If you think that is a serious costed programme, I doubt your MP scrutiny abilities amounted to much.
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
I've read the manifesto, it is a cavalcade of more this, more that over and over. The LD one was more costed. All will have uncosted stuff, but labours is full of massive spending over promises. The one good thing about the Tory one was being willing to tell its core voters they couldn't have some of their goodies anymore.
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
I have a friend who has always been a Corbyn fan, but he looks to be a good indicator of public opinion. He was enthused by the Labour manifesto and jubilant about the Tory one. Before those, he was wobbling and seriously considering voting for the Women's Equality Party (because it has equality in the title).
His solution to the Islamist problem is to buy them off. Bung 'em all a few million quid from the middle east and they'll all go home and watch their colour tellies. I did mention that Osama wasn't short of a bob or two, but it had no effect
He thinks Corbyn could win now, but then, he was convinced Ed would win at a canter.
I suspect that next week, he'll be considering the Greens. May will win, the grey filly is cantering at the moment and the challenger is moving up from the back, but thee are some massive obstacles coming up, and he'll try to go straight through those big fences.
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. SNIP
A position one doesn't often see so unashamedly stated.
In good King Charles's golden days, When Loyalty no harm meant; A Zealous High-Church man was I, And so I gain'd Preferment. Unto my Flock I daily Preach'd, Kings are by God appointed, And Damn'd are those who dare resist, Or touch the Lord's Anointed. And this is law,4 I will maintain Unto my Dying Day, Sir. That whatsoever King may reign, Still I'll be the Vicar of Bray, Sir!
When Royal James possest the crown, And popery grew in fashion; The Penal Law I shouted down, And read the Declaration: The Church of Rome I found would fit Full well my Constitution, And I had been a Jesuit, But for the Revolution. And this is Law, &c.
When William our Deliverer came, To heal the Nation's Grievance, I turn'd the Cat in Pan again, And swore to him Allegiance: Old Principles I did revoke, Set conscience at a distance, Passive Obedience is a Joke, A Jest is non-resistance. And this is Law, &c.
When Royal Anne became our Queen, Then Church of England's Glory, Another face of things was seen, And I became a Tory: Occasional Conformists base I Damn'd, and Moderation, And thought the Church in danger was, From such Prevarication. And this is Law, &c.
When George in Pudding time came o'er, And Moderate Men looked big, Sir, My Principles I chang'd once more, And so became a Whig, Sir. And thus Preferment I procur'd, From our Faith's great Defender And almost every day abjur'd The Pope, and the Pretender. And this is Law, &c.
The Illustrious House of Hanover, And Protestant succession, To these I lustily will swear, Whilst they can keep possession: For in my Faith, and Loyalty, I never once will faulter, But George, my lawful king shall be, Except the Times shou'd alter. And this is Law, &c.
If Labour did somehow win the general election, Corbyn would be sitting in front of a PLP that did not want him as their leader. He would find it almost impossible to do anything on the level that Chavez did in Venezuela. In fact, with nothing to lose (as mass deselections would surely follow a Corbyn victory) the PLP might just stage a very real coup!!
People here consistently misread the PLP. Most MPs simply want to win, and their objection to Corbyn was primarily that they thought he'd lose them their seats. If he wins, most will just say that's amazing, but OK, let's go with it and see how it works out. And if they said that they would not get deselected either. There would be some regular rebels (John Woodcock is the obvious example, but I can't think of more than half a dozen more), but most would simply wait and see.
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
Imagine a situation where there is anti-Tory tactical voting, and we end up with the LDs on (say) 20, Labour on 240, the SNP on 40 and the Tories on around 320.
The LibDems will not enter into a coalition with the Conservative Party again, and the numbers simply don't work for an "anti-Tory" coalition.
What, other than chaos, happens next? My guess is that you'd have a weak minority Conservative government that fell at the recession.
Eeek.
So Tories on 320, Lab/Ld/SNP on 300. Tories could count on Unionists and buy off SNP with the promise of another referendum. So Confidence and supply from SNP? It won't happen, she'll get a bigger majority and her extra 2 years.
Comments
Or not. I just checked, and they're both 3 or lower for a podium. Bit rubbish.
Why do you misrepresent him on the GFA vote?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/868009169571516416
Terrible times if the Saturday polls, as seems probable, continue the trend of sub 10 leads. People will very consciously not let terrible events change their minds, so any Tory bounce will be slight if it exists.
Seems pretty clearcut to me.
With the new tyres, it's going to be a clear one stop race at a circuit where track position counts for everything (ask Nigel Mansell about the latter point). I think the value might be with the Mercedes-powered cars (inc the FI cars and Massa) who will turn their engines up to 11 for one lap in Q3.
No SC is a great bet, was a good value loser last year in the rain and the forecast is for the sun to shine on Sunday.
The joke was funny the first few times - but it's getting a bit stale now.
The problem they have if they throw spanners in the works members blame them.
If they don't he does well enough to stay.
Cambridge Lab 5/2 Bet365
Look like good value.
If the Conservatives don't get a majority at all or they do but it's reduced she is finished. The 22 will get those letters.
The pound takes a dive; FTSE profits soar. Every cloud has a silver lining !
What changes that narrative in2 weeks?
The era of the "professional politician" ........ mediocre the lot of them.
(Honourable exception for Nicola Sturgeon, who is not faultless even so)
McDonnell voted for good Friday Agreement.
http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=1998-07-31&number=356&mpn=John_Martin_McDonnell&mpc=Hayes_and_Harlington&house=commons
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/26/general-election-2017-terror-corbyn-may-g7-sicily-politics-live
Key points:
Tory manifesto plans imply “another five years of austerity”, the IFS says.
Labour manifesto plans would raises taxes to “their highest ever peacetime level”, the IFS says. It also says Labour’s plans to expand expand the size of the state “would not work”.
The surge is real.
The LibDems will not enter into a coalition with the Conservative Party again, and the numbers simply don't work for an "anti-Tory" coalition.
What, other than chaos, happens next? My guess is that you'd have a weak minority Conservative government that fell at the recession.
Eeek.
Telling all the Tories to go away, putting it mildly, means you can never win an election. Short sighted much?
I have been promised an owl. I am entitled to my owl.
Get on with it.
It is dangerous: On the surface, Corbyn now does 'sound' reasonable.
But so do sociopaths.
I thought this would be over by now and just a question of weighing the Tory votes in two weeks.
Now...
That I don't know answers whether their opinion will sway many people, since if people don't know either, it will be easy for allsides to dismiss any criticism.
I agree that nutty Chavez-style economics wouldn't get through, but whatever one thinks of McDonnell's personal background, he is making a serious effort to have a costed programme, which has not always been the case on either side (is the Tory programme costed? Hell, no). He's an intelligent man and has no intention of crashing the economy with crazy experiments - that's why the manifesto is actually quite reserved on things like reversing welfare cuts that you'd expect to be big spending commitments.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/29/john-mcdonnell-is-deeply-unpleasant-man--and-jeremy-corbyn-wants/
From interview with Sophie Ridge last Sunday: "I’ve always wanted there to be peace and I really welcomed the Good Friday Agreement and all the achievements it has made since then."
Full transcript here; https://labourlist.org/2017/05/what-did-corbyn-actually-say-about-the-ira/
http://www.fsmevents.com/ifselection2017/
The likes of John Redwood are often quite critical of them.
Imagine most people don't pay a huge amount of attention to them.
I guess we'll find out at 10pm on June 8th...
Tories: More austerity
Labour: Moon on a stick
His solution to the Islamist problem is to buy them off. Bung 'em all a few million quid from the middle east and they'll all go home and watch their colour tellies. I did mention that Osama wasn't short of a bob or two, but it had no effect
He thinks Corbyn could win now, but then, he was convinced Ed would win at a canter.
I suspect that next week, he'll be considering the Greens. May will win, the grey filly is cantering at the moment and the challenger is moving up from the back, but thee are some massive obstacles coming up, and he'll try to go straight through those big fences.
But you know who'll suffer. The lower middle defined contribution plebs in the private sector.
In good King Charles's golden days,
When Loyalty no harm meant;
A Zealous High-Church man was I,
And so I gain'd Preferment.
Unto my Flock I daily Preach'd,
Kings are by God appointed,
And Damn'd are those who dare resist,
Or touch the Lord's Anointed.
And this is law,4 I will maintain
Unto my Dying Day, Sir.
That whatsoever King may reign,
Still I'll be the Vicar of Bray, Sir!
When Royal James possest the crown,
And popery grew in fashion;
The Penal Law I shouted down,
And read the Declaration:
The Church of Rome I found would fit
Full well my Constitution,
And I had been a Jesuit,
But for the Revolution.
And this is Law, &c.
When William our Deliverer came,
To heal the Nation's Grievance,
I turn'd the Cat in Pan again,
And swore to him Allegiance:
Old Principles I did revoke,
Set conscience at a distance,
Passive Obedience is a Joke,
A Jest is non-resistance.
And this is Law, &c.
When Royal Anne became our Queen,
Then Church of England's Glory,
Another face of things was seen,
And I became a Tory:
Occasional Conformists base
I Damn'd, and Moderation,
And thought the Church in danger was,
From such Prevarication.
And this is Law, &c.
When George in Pudding time came o'er,
And Moderate Men looked big, Sir,
My Principles I chang'd once more,
And so became a Whig, Sir.
And thus Preferment I procur'd,
From our Faith's great Defender
And almost every day abjur'd
The Pope, and the Pretender.
And this is Law, &c.
The Illustrious House of Hanover,
And Protestant succession,
To these I lustily will swear,
Whilst they can keep possession:
For in my Faith, and Loyalty,
I never once will faulter,
But George, my lawful king shall be,
Except the Times shou'd alter.
And this is Law, &c.
"We will build the moon on a stick... and the 1% will pay for it"
It won't happen, she'll get a bigger majority and her extra 2 years.