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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mrs May’s extraordinary ratings honeymoon ended with the manif
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mrs May’s extraordinary ratings honeymoon ended with the manifesto launch
One of the striking features of TMay’s period at Number 10 is how she has maintained positive leadership ratings throughput. Whether pollsters were asking about approval, favourability, satisfaction, or whether she was doing a good or bad job all the numbers were positive from the moment she became PM last July.
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While it would be extremely funny to see the loathsome Corbyn utterly annihilated and demonstrated for what he is, and in the long run a good outcome for democracy, under the current circumstances that would be a far better outcome than what we all thought would happen three weeks ago.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/25/jeremy-corbyn-suggests-britains-wars-abroad-blame-manchester/
More seriously, in the event he did win, he would surely be quickly replaced by Macdonnell, who is even worse.
It's possible that a poll taken on Monday might have shown no lead at all.
What foreign policy mishap caused those?
Is there any point at all in doing leader rating comparisons for people like Umunna or Yvette? Corbyn has had two leadership elections and two years at the helm, you'd think the public had a settled view on him by now, but no, the campaign changes things....
Unless one asks what the Labour party's policy on the intelligence services is and why it is that Corbyn voted against every counter-terrorism measure passed by Parliament in recent years and what counter-terrorism measures he proposes etc.
The idea of Corbyn in charge of national security fills me with horror but I have little confidence that the Tories are up to opposing him properly and showing why his world view and long-standing political positions are the wrong answer and will likely make us less safe.
Whether or not that's really at the root of it is irrelevant because we can't change the past. ISIS reference the Crusades a lot it seems, so I doubt a change now wouldd alter their world view.
We should focus on community policing and high tech intelligence services, as well as looking at the legal framework again.
Mrs May isn't politically savvy, but she would still be PM with a minimally increased majority, which should be sufficient for the next 4-5 years. It would serve her right for calling this unnecessary GE.
It is clear to me that overthrowing Gaddafi, fomented by the ConDem government a few years ago, has a direct bearing on the Manchester atrocity, so Corbyn is right in linking British foreign meddling to Islamist terrorism here.
I’m quite warming to the idea of the cuddly old gent being PM, it’s a communist chancellor and a buffoon as home secretary that I find somewhat disquieting. Not going to happen tho.
The main message is that the War on Terror isn't working. To attack the statement is to defend the performance of the government of defending us from terrorism shortly after a bombing.
Corbyn still has plenty of scope to go off the rails on this and I think, from a Labour strategy point of view, it is a dangerous and totally self indulgent speech to make but the actual statement is carefully anodyne.
Not that there is a particularly close relationship between the overall actions of "the West" and which countries are targeted by the Islamists.
When Labour people speak to segregated audiences at mosques which host hate preachers they are giving their tacit approval to the ideology which animates killers like Abedi. They are not challenging it.
And that is one way in which that ideology spreads in this country and forms the sea in which the terrorist fish swim.
Corbyn and his ilk are the useful idiots of the terrorists.
I suspect this Labour polling of 38% is a one off and that the Tory lead is double digits, with a majority of over 50 still most likely. But Tory central office must be concerned that the election campaign is not going as planned.
It seems obvious to me that it is possible for government to scrap tuition fees without bankrupting universities. Labour have proposed tax changes to pay for the policy. In government they would be able to make further tax changes or reduce spending elsewhere if the changes they had suggested would be insufficient.
Labour will not turn into Venezuela - and your suggestion that Venezuela had far sounder economic fundamentals than us is very strange.
This foreign wars annoucement from corbyn seems to me to be targeted at his core vote.
"We all thought" indeed!
I've been consistently predicting a 50-60 seat majority since the beginning...
But definitely - TM is hurting British universities with her aims to reduce foreign student numbers.
https://www.ft.com/content/a1b695da-07e7-11e7-97d1-5e720a26771b
Given what we know about the marginals and the UKIP vote, is there as high as a one in six chance the Tory seat numbers go backwards?
The fact that Islamists have been attacking the West since the early 90's (at least - arguably going back to the Rushdie fatwa) and long before recent interventions is conveniently ignored by those who use the Iraq war as a pretext.
Remember Corbyn opposed our interventions in Kosovo and Bosnia to help Muslims. Objectively, he was on the side of Mladic and co, on the side of those who committed Srebenica.
He opposes what the West does not because of its consequences but because it is the West doing it. That is his animating principle.
Check out the video of him blaming us for what happened on 7/7, for instance. Or him opposing any military action against IS to protect the Kurds and Yazidis.
What you are seeing is the tribal Labour voters who previously said Corbyn was a bad 'un (wasn't it almost 50% at one point?) backing "their team's guy"
300 k elderly people in residential care * 30k annual feels = 9 billion pounds. and that is without even costing the much larger number of elderly who need care in the home.
All those lovely ISAs and PFICs are worth nothing to you now...
Labour have seized the mantle for the young (tuition fees), the JAMS, middle classes under 80k salary and those with children about to go to uni. Crucially they have a guarantee for the elderly as well.
Its difficult to see how Cons can seize the narrative from here on out. We could see Labour 40% in the next few days, and then crossover with a week to go. I've just laid a Con overall majority accordingly quite heavily.
It`s a silly question really, since it is only relative - a comparison with the alternative which I, for one, strongly dislike.
(Read "line in the sand" - excellent book)
https://www.amazon.co.uk/d/Books/Line-Sand-Britain-France-struggle-shaped-Middle/1847394574
If you genuinely believed in anti- racism, equality, gay rights, democracy and liberalism, why would you consistently cosy up to people who believe in none of these things?
If Theresa May screws this election up, especially if she reduces the Tory majority or makes Corbyn PM
I suppose it's possible that there is a cohort who are in safe Tory seats who never bothered to vote before, but who are enthused enough by the old Trot to want to stick two fingers up to the system and come out to vote for the first time in yonks. They already used to vote in the marginals...
Islamists need very little excuse to go on a killing spree, but we did give them a lot more space to operate by removing the secular nationalist leaders who kept the lid on them.
My view is a longer one. The collapse of Communism did the most to bring about the rise of Islamism. Islamism appeals to idealistic people who dislike the crass materialism of western culture, and who have been left behind by it economically and socially. 50 years ago these people would be Communists, now they are Islamists. It is the counter-culture of our times.
So my thought was the £3bn was extra money - on top of what is currently spent.
Doing it nationally makes sense to me rather than relying on councils.
After WW2 Europe came together and through institutions that enabled working together, we generally have had peaceful times, good ecomomic prosperity and good living standards for most people, compared to other continents. The big challenge for politicians now is not to seek isolation behind closed borders and to stop working together, as that just might make the situation a whole lot worse.
You can't bolt the stable door now, because most countries in Europe and elsewhere have residents who might at some point commit a terrorist act. All you can do is invest in sufficient security and work very closely with international colleagues. With modern technology the big terrorist networks are communicating with each other out of sight of security services. Much of the intelligence is only gathered after people have come under radar of Police/Security Services or after a committing crime or terrorist act. Given the number of people that have committed terrorist acts after already been known to Security Services, it suggests that Government have not done enough in providing resources and adequate law.
https://twitter.com/d_g_alexander/status/867994916789657601
Just vote Labour [ or, LD or SNP ] to keep the May majority under 100.
https://twitter.com/stephenckerr/status/867879368563011584
But the other zeitgeist present (amongst the more politically engaged) is "we need grown ups in charge". That's why May swept in and appeared 'strong and stable' after the naughty schoolboys Gove and Boris smashed up all the windows. May suddenly looks weak, and Corbyn's speech on foreign wars fits suddenly looks like the grown up position. Labour are playing a blinder.
The 'Belgium/Sweden' argument is a nonsense. If you are a disaffected radicalised youth, you are going to act in your home environment, with which you are familiar and where you are more likely to succeed. No-one is masterminding this with a central list of targets. The fact that your own western country hasn't itself dropped any bombs doesn't detract from the proposition that western interventions in multiple Muslim countries (did not create the threat but) has fuelled the terrorist threat.
However, it is not as simple as that. Islamism appeals by building a social network, including education, and a subsistence level of welfare, as well as social traditions to a bring back a "golden age". In this it has a lot in common with similar reactionary populist movements in western countries, with their social conservatism and nostalgic longing for a return to social stability. Kippers and Islamists have more in common than appears on the surface.
https://twitter.com/bbcthisweek/status/867885723860451328
The Tories are headed for a large majority and it's in. O small measure due to Corbyn's weakness.
Some people on here need to get a grip.
They will always find excuses, whatever we do. It's sad that people aid them by blaming ourselves, rather than their sick ideology.
Crap campaign, totally uninspiring. TMay not living up to expectations
Likely to win small rather than big, which defeats the pronounced object of the election and actively undermines her position in the Brexit negotiations.
All disspiritingg stuff
On the plus side its sunny and a bank holiday weekend. Happy Friday all
With the referendum it was a remain win on paper despite hearing a lot of leave voters on the doors. The late surge of leave caught the pollsters and bookies with their pants down.
And now we have 2017. The CORBYN CAN'T WIN election. He can't win. He won't win. Until he wins. Because if you set aside the can't win won't win mantra, it's clear that he is winning:
1. Labour manifesto offering a positive vision for the future. A hope manifesto with free puppies for all
2. Tory manifesto offers no vision other than mean-minded snatching of homes and the slow death of public services and civic society.
3. Two million people added themselves to the electoral register by the deadline. They aren't Tory voters
4. Tory campaign was Strong and Stable. And unwilling to speak to people. Has now become Incoherent and Running Scared. And unable to talk to people. A campaign that only works when Jezza can't win and won't win. But what if he can...?
I entered this campaign expecting one of two results : a Tory majority of 50 or a Tory majority of 150. But I can't deny what I can see and touch - a Labour surge that grows exponentially each day and a Tory cataclysm of a campaign that makes voting for them look increasingly like an act of self harm.
Despite all that, common sense still suggests a Tory win. But what if common sense isn't what the silent majority who delivered a Tory win against expectations are wanting now? After a decade of crippling austerity the promise of worse to come doesn't look as attractive as free puppies with Corbyn
The patricians sit in their gilded fortresses while the unruly plebs storm the palaces, twas ever thus.
Humans are not good at assessing low probability / massive impact risks.
Corbyn is one
If Corbn were to get in, then 70s Britain is probably closer to the mark.
To my mind, those Corbyn "best PM" ratings make it look more like a trend.
Rochdale P, as a Tory voter i fear your analysis is bang on the money . i am very concerned.