There IS a case for scaling back our "interventions" but this has pretty much happened anyway.
But Jezza would go further whatever he says. There are literally no circumstances where he would commit British troops to war. Ever.
Even if the British realm itself was about to be invaded by another country he would still be unable to go to war which he has been very honest about over the past 40 years to be fair.
Other than this, I can see the merits in Corbyn actually... But the one thing that holds me back for voting for him is that I just don't think the country would be secure with him.
If the Tories cannot demolish Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott over matters of security and defence, then quite simply, they do not deserve to form the next government.
It has now got to the stage that the sort of personal attacks on Corbyn et al that you want will be counter productive . To retrieve the position the Conservatives need to send out positive messages for people to vote for them but this seems beyond Mrs W and W .
I disagree with your first point, but agree with the second one.
Jermey Corbyn is not suggesting a peace deal. He is suggesting we stop actively assisting them and helping them abroad.
So he's changed his policy since his time supporting the IRA ?
The Irish situation lent itself to a peace deal. The spread of global quasi-fascist Wahabism, enabled by Weak & Wobbly May's paymasters in Riyadh, does not. It just entails isolating the Gulf states from global influence and stopping assistance of jihadis abroad.
An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser who is a total pacifist who will not take decisive action when required to protect our way of life, who will not defend this country and will let Russia and China veto any war we ought to take part in. His free uncosted sweeties for all bribe will bankrupt the UK and make us the laughing stock of the world. He is the most dangerous politician and is a clear and present danger to the security of the UK. If he gets his hands anywhere near the levers of power we are all screwed, and the damage to the UK will be permanent. I fear for my childrens future if Labour win
Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?
They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.
So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?
But are they? Isn't it more that Labour are hoovering up the LibDems and Greens and Commies and Don't Usually Vote, and the Tories are losing votes to Don't Knows?
There is a point (I would suggest already reached) at which Labour cannot make further progress without getting Tories to switch to them. And they will be a much harder nut to crack.
Yesterday Yougov showed almost equal numbers moving from Con to Lab and vice versa and Lib Dem to Lab and vice versa . The only significant moves were UKIP to Con and a smaller Con to Lib Dem move all since 2015
Actually that's a good speech by Jeremy Corbyn. A good take on supporting those that aim to keep us safe. I don't think I go along with his linkage between terrorism and our foreign policy, but he has a point that military operations have consequences, so you need to think carefully about them. Corbyn's instinct is to disengage, but the same instinct is driving Brexit. A lot of people go along with it.
If you seriously believe that Labour under Corbyn will provide more resources to fight terror, you must be absolutely deluded. Corbyn has consistently opposed all legislation aimed at fighting terror, his Shadow Chancellor has called for the intelligence services to be shut down, as has his Shadow Home Secretary. The idea that they will provide more resources or take the steps needed to deal with the terrorist threat is for the birds.
Has MI6 chief Alex Younger condemned his predecessor Richard Dearlove's statement that the current level of terrorism in Britain is "manageable" "indefinitely" and really not much of a problem as it stands?
For that matter, has Alex Younger or any previous head of MI6 ever had a word to say that is the tiniest bit critical of the British government's decades-long fawning to Salafist headchoppers in the Gulf in return for signatures on multibillion pound weapons deals?
Corbyn completely outclasses May in the seriousness and sense with which he addresses the terrorism problem. He deserves to be prime minister more than any other major party leader for more than 30 years.
The Tory response to Manchester has been absolute sh**. Had they actually put soldiers into shopping centres and sporting events, I would have supported that. Instead, they grandstand and put more soldiers outside Buckingham Palace which was already protected by the army anyway. Their lapdog press doesn't even ask who ran the security at the Manchester Arena and how such events might be made more secure in future. And they have the gall to say a vote for the rabid foxhunting xenophobic right-wing nasties is a vote for "security".
Jermey Corbyn is not suggesting a peace deal. He is suggesting we stop actively assisting them and helping them abroad.
So he's changed his policy since his time supporting the IRA ?
The Irish situation lent itself to a peace deal. The spread of global quasi-fascist Wahabism, enabled by Weak & Wobbly May's paymasters in Riyadh, does not. It just entails isolating the Gulf states from global influence and stopping assistance of jihadis abroad.
Talk me through the times Corbyn interacted with the Unionist side in the conflict...
An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser who is a total pacifist who will not take decisive action when required to protect our way of life, who will not defend this country and will let Russia and China veto any war we ought to take part in. His free uncosted sweeties for all bribe will bankrupt the UK and make us the laughing stock of the world. He is the most dangerous politician and is a clear and present danger to the security of the UK. If he gets his hands anywhere near the levers of power we are all screwed, and the damage to the UK will be permanent. I fear for my childrens future if Labour win
Shall I put you down as a maybe!!
Do you feel safer now than in 2010?
Would you feel safer under Corbyn and Abbott? Would Westminster & Manchester have happened if they were in power? I suspect No and Yes are your answers.
One thing that is nagging away is that Momentum asked their members a while back to sign up to survey panels. Could YouGov have been infiltrated? You'd need thousands of people to sign up but not impossible...
Will be interesting to see if phone polls show any different.
Christ. Now the Tories are borrowing the Corbynites' tin-foil-hats.
Desperate times, indeed.
Just to point out I'm not a PB Tory. I'm looking for a reason why the numbers might not match the anecdotal evidence.
But the numbers DO match the anecdotal evidence. Everyone hated that Manifesto and TMay made herself look like a weak & wobbly idiot. Polling shows this, canvassers report it, I'm hearing it from friends and family
Strong and Stable Corbyn backing the police and security services against Mrs Weak and Wobblys cuts .
I thought you were Lib Dem not a Corbynista?
Mark is an anti-Tory. It doesn't matter what you're for so much as what you're against. That's the problem with ending up in government as the Lib Dems did: you have no choice but to be 'for' something, and the public will then hold you to account on it, whether you try to distance yourself or not. Hence the migration of those for whom politics is a matter of protest migrating from the Lib Dems and finding homes in places as diverse as UKIP or with Corbyn.
And yet despite what you say I was far more loyal to the Coalition Government than most Conservatives who post on here .
Jermey Corbyn is not suggesting a peace deal. He is suggesting we stop actively assisting them and helping them abroad.
So he's changed his policy since his time supporting the IRA ?
The Irish situation lent itself to a peace deal. The spread of global quasi-fascist Wahabism, enabled by Weak & Wobbly May's paymasters in Riyadh, does not. It just entails isolating the Gulf states from global influence and stopping assistance of jihadis abroad.
I'm still agog to hear about "our establishment's money-making plans for the region."
More generally: if I've understood properly, Corbyn's views on military intervention would require us to exit NATO. Would that be correct?
Jermey Corbyn is not suggesting a peace deal. He is suggesting we stop actively assisting them and helping them abroad.
So he's changed his policy since his time supporting the IRA ?
The Irish situation lent itself to a peace deal. The spread of global quasi-fascist Wahabism, enabled by Weak & Wobbly May's paymasters in Riyadh, does not. It just entails isolating the Gulf states from global influence and stopping assistance of jihadis abroad.
I'm still agog to hear about "our establishment's money-making plans for the region."
Actually that's a good speech by Jeremy Corbyn. A good take on supporting those that aim to keep us safe. I don't think I go along with his linkage between terrorism and our foreign policy, but he has a point that military operations have consequences, so you need to think carefully about them. Corbyn's instinct is to disengage, but the same instinct is driving Brexit. A lot of people go along with it.
"Disengage" is one thing but there are absolutely no circumstances where he would ever commit troops to war...
An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser who is a total pacifist who will not take decisive action when required to protect our way of life, who will not defend this country and will let Russia and China veto any war we ought to take part in. His free uncosted sweeties for all bribe will bankrupt the UK and make us the laughing stock of the world. He is the most dangerous politician and is a clear and present danger to the security of the UK. If he gets his hands anywhere near the levers of power we are all screwed, and the damage to the UK will be permanent. I fear for my childrens future if Labour win
And I fear for my grand childrens future if Mrs W and W and the Conservatives win .
Is that because their inheritance will be so much lower under the proposed social care rules?
So. Two weeks today. Corbyn's latest rallying speech to the comrades - from the podium in Downing Street.
It's going to happen. I just feel it in my bones. He's played a blinder in recent weeks, on any objective assessment Labour is completely owning this GE campaign. The Tories have been complacent and dull and offered nothing in a dogshit manifesto. They deserve to lose seats.
What an absolute effing disaster from the disaster of a party I have little option but to continue to support. In a thoroughly depressing week I am yet further depressed as this car crash continues to unfold.
I am no fan of Corbyn (as many here will know!!) but he has certainly completely out campaigned May, who has proved herself to be utterly inept in the crucible of a general election. Where we differ is that I still think the Tories will win big. That said, I also thought Clinton and Remain would win. In both those cases, however, I backed the opposite outcome as a value longshot. Labour now at least have come into view as a value longshot, from being completely out of the game two weeks ago.
I'd happily bet - given odds of sufficient value - that at 7.00 h on 9 June I wake up to a Tory majority greater than now. Maybe some strange seat gains and losses, admittedly, making the loss of Gower in 2015 look normal.
Under FPTP, hasn't Labour's voting efficiency been falling? It's no good piling up more Labour votes in Chester, Exeter, Bath or Cheltenham if one loses them in Darlington or Bishop Auckland and 20 seats rather like them. A gain of 15-20 Labour seats and a few from the SNP gives her a majority of around 50.
I'd have thought Labour votes in Chester would be very useful.
They only need the existing number of votes to keep Chester Labour. I know they have a perilously low majority. But it's FPTP and winner takes all.
I don't think so. There were 4000 UKIP votes last time round and there's no UKIP candidate this time. Labour can hold all its own voters from 2015 and still lose comprehensively.
One thing that is nagging away is that Momentum asked their members a while back to sign up to survey panels. Could YouGov have been infiltrated? You'd need thousands of people to sign up but not impossible...
Will be interesting to see if phone polls show any different.
Christ. Now the Tories are borrowing the Corbynites' tin-foil-hats.
Desperate times, indeed.
Just to point out I'm not a PB Tory. I'm looking for a reason why the numbers might not match the anecdotal evidence.
But the numbers DO match the anecdotal evidence. Everyone hated that Manifesto and TMay made herself look like a weak & wobbly idiot. Polling shows this, canvassers report it, I'm hearing it from friends and family
Strong and Stable Corbyn backing the police and security services against Mrs Weak and Wobblys cuts .
I thought you were Lib Dem not a Corbynista?
Mark is an anti-Tory. It doesn't matter what you're for so much as what you're against. That's the problem with ending up in government as the Lib Dems did: you have no choice but to be 'for' something, and the public will then hold you to account on it, whether you try to distance yourself or not. Hence the migration of those for whom politics is a matter of protest migrating from the Lib Dems and finding homes in places as diverse as UKIP or with Corbyn.
And yet despite what you say I was far more loyal to the Coalition Government than most Conservatives who post on here .
I would quite like the Coalition back. I thought we were well governed between 2010 and 2015.
There are really quite striking parallels between the Corbocharge and Brexit, Trump and Indyref.
In all three cases, the underdog came from way behind, on a surge of emotional support and populism, fired up by social media. In two cases, Trump and Brexit, the surge was big enough to edge them to victory....
However, I think the very closest parallel is Indyref. The deficit from the start was/is probably a bit too big to be overtaken, and there's a stubborn plurality of the electorate, on the other side, that simply will not be budged.
On this basis, the Corbocharge will slip back somewhat in the final days, and TMay will get her pretty miserable 30-70 seat majority.
Jermey Corbyn is not suggesting a peace deal. He is suggesting we stop actively assisting them and helping them abroad.
So he's changed his policy since his time supporting the IRA ?
The Irish situation lent itself to a peace deal. The spread of global quasi-fascist Wahabism, enabled by Weak & Wobbly May's paymasters in Riyadh, does not. It just entails isolating the Gulf states from global influence and stopping assistance of jihadis abroad.
I'm still agog to hear about "our establishment's money-making plans for the region."
There are really quite striking parallels between the Corbocharge and Brexit, Trump and Indyref.
In all three cases, the underdog came from way behind, on a surge of emotional support and populism, fired up by social media. In two cases, Trump and Brexit, the surge was big enough to edge them to victory....
However, I think the very closest parallel is Indyref. The deficit from the start was/is probably a bit too big to be overtaken, and there's a stubborn plurality of the electorate, on the other side, that simply will not be budged.
On this basis, the Corbocharge will slip back somewhat in the final days, and TMay will get her pretty miserable 30-70 seat majority.
We're a target mainly because we're a western democracy. Belgium has been a target for the same reason too and I don't remember them being particularly active in bombing Syria. But hey also have a high Islamic population. Even if only 0.001% becomes radicalised, that's too many. And yes, I know that the vast majority have no time for IS.
I believe that the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1940s were outraged by the decadence of the USA then. Skirts only inches below the knee and women cavorting out on their own. I wonder what they think of modern life now?
There are really quite striking parallels between the Corbocharge and Brexit, Trump and Indyref.
In all three cases, the underdog came from way behind, on a surge of emotional support and populism, fired up by social media. In two cases, Trump and Brexit, the surge was big enough to edge them to victory....
However, I think the very closest parallel is Indyref. The deficit from the start was/is probably a bit too big to be overtaken, and there's a stubborn plurality of the electorate, on the other side, that simply will not be budged.
On this basis, the Corbocharge will slip back somewhat in the final days, and TMay will get her pretty miserable 30-70 seat majority.
Mebbes.
In the case of Brexit, I'd suggest the weight of printed media played at least a great a role as social media. Happy to be proved wrong.
If you seriously believe that Labour under Corbyn will provide more resources to fight terror, you must be absolutely deluded. Corbyn has consistently opposed all legislation aimed at fighting terror, his Shadow Chancellor has called for the intelligence services to be shut down, as has his Shadow Home Secretary. The idea that they will provide more resources or take the steps needed to deal with the terrorist threat is for the birds.
Has MI6 chief Alex Younger condemned his predecessor Richard Dearlove's statement that the current level of terrorism in Britain is "manageable" "indefinitely" and really not much of a problem as it stands?
For that matter, has Alex Younger or any previous head of MI6 ever had a word to say that is the tiniest bit critical of the British government's decades-long fawning to Salafist headchoppers in the Gulf in return for signatures on multibillion pound weapons deals?
Corbyn completely outclasses May in the seriousness and sense with which he addresses the terrorism problem. He deserves to be prime minister more than any other major party leader for more than 30 years.
The Tory response to Manchester has been absolute sh**. Had they actually put soldiers into shopping centres and sporting events, I would have supported that. Instead, they grandstand and put more soldiers outside Buckingham Palace which was already protected by the army anyway. Their lapdog press doesn't even ask who ran the security at the Manchester Arena and how such events might be made more secure in future. And they have the gall to say a vote for the rabid foxhunting xenophobic right-wing nasties is a vote for "security".
There are a great many problems with the Saudi leadership. However, the idea that the world would be a better place without them given the only plausible replacements seems to ignore the experiences across the rest of the Middle East when states have lost established regimes, that you're otherwise happy to point out.
An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser who is a total pacifist who will not take decisive action when required to protect our way of life, who will not defend this country and will let Russia and China veto any war we ought to take part in. His free uncosted sweeties for all bribe will bankrupt the UK and make us the laughing stock of the world. He is the most dangerous politician and is a clear and present danger to the security of the UK. If he gets his hands anywhere near the levers of power we are all screwed, and the damage to the UK will be permanent. I fear for my childrens future if Labour win
And I fear for my grand childrens future if Mrs W and W and the Conservatives win .
Is that because their inheritance will be so much lower under the proposed social care rules?
As i posted the other day I sorted out their inheritance 12 years ago .
Imagine that Gove had not stabled Boris, and that this election was now about PM Boris and Chancellor Gove.
Mophead calls election after a year of embarrassing everyone as PM, saying he wants a bigger majority? How popular he'd be in the 1922 committee Cue the biggest Labour majority ever?
So. Two weeks today. Corbyn's latest rallying speech to the comrades - from the podium in Downing Street.
It's going to happen. I just feel it in my bones. He's played a blinder in recent weeks, on any objective assessment Labour is completely owning this GE campaign. The Tories have been complacent and dull and offered nothing in a dogshit manifesto. They deserve to lose seats.
What an absolute effing disaster from the disaster of a party I have little option but to continue to support. In a thoroughly depressing week I am yet further depressed as this car crash continues to unfold.
I am no fan of Corbyn (as many here will know!!) but he has certainly completely out campaigned May, who has proved herself to be utterly inept in the crucible of a general election. Where we differ is that I still think the Tories will win big. That said, I also thought Clinton and Remain would win. In both those cases, however, I backed the opposite outcome as a value longshot. Labour now at least have come into view as a value longshot, from being completely out of the game two weeks ago.
I'd happily bet - given odds of sufficient value - that at 7.00 h on 9 June I wake up to a Tory majority greater than now. Maybe some strange seat gains and losses, admittedly, making the loss of Gower in 2015 look normal.
Under FPTP, hasn't Labour's voting efficiency been falling? It's no good piling up more Labour votes in Chester, Exeter, Bath or Cheltenham if one loses them in Darlington or Bishop Auckland and 20 seats rather like them. A gain of 15-20 Labour seats and a few from the SNP gives her a majority of around 50.
I'd have thought Labour votes in Chester would be very useful.
They only need the existing number of votes to keep Chester Labour. I know they have a perilously low majority. But it's FPTP and winner takes all.
I don't think so. There were 4000 UKIP votes last time round and there's no UKIP candidate this time. Labour can hold all its own voters from 2015 and still lose comprehensively.
We were told UKIP were not just Tories on Holiday, that they were taking as many Labour votes. In fact were were told that UKIP would be a real danger to Labour. Now UKIP have self destructed, it seems everyone thinks ALL their votes are going to the Tories, surely it's only a percentage.
An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser who is a total pacifist who will not take decisive action when required to protect our way of life, who will not defend this country and will let Russia and China veto any war we ought to take part in. His free uncosted sweeties for all bribe will bankrupt the UK and make us the laughing stock of the world. He is the most dangerous politician and is a clear and present danger to the security of the UK. If he gets his hands anywhere near the levers of power we are all screwed, and the damage to the UK will be permanent. I fear for my childrens future if Labour win
And I fear for my grand childrens future if Mrs W and W and the Conservatives win .
Is that because their inheritance will be so much lower under the proposed social care rules?
As i posted the other day I sorted out their inheritance 12 years ago .
I never knew estate planning was so rife on the left. There's hope for you yet.
An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser who is a total pacifist who will not take decisive action when required to protect our way of life, who will not defend this country and will let Russia and China veto any war we ought to take part in. His free uncosted sweeties for all bribe will bankrupt the UK and make us the laughing stock of the world. He is the most dangerous politician and is a clear and present danger to the security of the UK. If he gets his hands anywhere near the levers of power we are all screwed, and the damage to the UK will be permanent. I fear for my childrens future if Labour win
So. Two weeks today. Corbyn's latest rallying speech to the comrades - from the podium in Downing Street.
It's going to happen. I just feel it in my bones. He's played a blinder in recent weeks, on any objective assessment Labour is completely owning this GE campaign. The Tories have been complacent and dull and offered nothing in a dogshit manifesto. They deserve to lose seats.
What an absolute effing disaster from the disaster of a party I have little option but to continue to support. In a thoroughly depressing week I am yet further depressed as this car crash continues to unfold.
I am no fan of Corbyn (as many here will know!!) but he has certainly completely out campaigned May, who has proved herself to be utterly inept in the crucible of a general election. Where we differ is that I still think the Tories will win big. That said, I also thought Clinton and Remain would win. In both those cases, however, I backed the opposite outcome as a value longshot. Labour now at least have come into view as a value longshot, from being completely out of the game two weeks ago.
I'd happily bet - given odds of sufficient value - that at 7.00 h on 9 June I wake up to a Tory majority greater than now. Maybe some strange seat gains and losses, admittedly, making the loss of Gower in 2015 look normal.
Under FPTP, hasn't Labour's voting efficiency been falling? It's no good piling up more Labour votes in Chester, Exeter, Bath or Cheltenham if one loses them in Darlington or Bishop Auckland and 20 seats rather like them. A gain of 15-20 Labour seats and a few from the SNP gives her a majority of around 50.
I'd have thought Labour votes in Chester would be very useful.
They only need the existing number of votes to keep Chester Labour. I know they have a perilously low majority. But it's FPTP and winner takes all.
I don't think so. There were 4000 UKIP votes last time round and there's no UKIP candidate this time. Labour can hold all its own voters from 2015 and still lose comprehensively.
We were told UKIP were not just Tories on Holiday, that they were taking as many Labour votes. In fact were were told that UKIP would be a real danger to Labour. Now UKIP have self destructed, it seems everyone thinks ALL their votes are going to the Tories, surely it's only a percentage.
It is only a percentage albeit a larger percentage .
Jermey Corbyn is not suggesting a peace deal. He is suggesting we stop actively assisting them and helping them abroad.
So he's changed his policy since his time supporting the IRA ?
The Irish situation lent itself to a peace deal. The spread of global quasi-fascist Wahabism, enabled by Weak & Wobbly May's paymasters in Riyadh, does not. It just entails isolating the Gulf states from global influence and stopping assistance of jihadis abroad.
I'm still agog to hear about "our establishment's money-making plans for the region."
More generally: if I've understood properly, Corbyn's views on military intervention would require us to exit NATO. Would that be correct?
Good question for Corbyn from Andrew Neil tonight.
So. Two weeks today. Corbyn's latest rallying speech to the comrades - from the podium in Downing Street.
It's going to happen. I just feel it in my bones. He's played a blinder in recent weeks, on any objective assessment Labour is completely owning this GE campaign. The Tories have been complacent and dull and offered nothing in a dogshit manifesto. They deserve to lose seats.
What an absolute effing disaster from the disaster of a party I have little option but to continue to support. In a thoroughly depressing week I am yet further depressed as this car crash continues to unfold.
I am no fan of Corbyn (as many here will know!!) but he has certainly completely out campaigned May, who has proved herself to be utterly inept in the crucible of a general election. Where we differ is that I still think the Tories will win big. That said, I also thought Clinton and Remain would win. In both those cases, however, I backed the opposite outcome as a value longshot. Labour now at least have come into view as a value longshot, from being completely out of the game two weeks ago.
I'd happily bet - given odds of sufficient value - that at 7.00 h on 9 June I wake up to a Tory majority greater than now. Maybe some strange seat gains and losses, admittedly, making the loss of Gower in 2015 look normal.
Under FPTP, hasn't Labour's voting efficiency been falling? It's no good piling up more Labour votes in Chester, Exeter, Bath or Cheltenham if one loses them in Darlington or Bishop Auckland and 20 seats rather like them. A gain of 15-20 Labour seats and a few from the SNP gives her a majority of around 50.
I'd have thought Labour votes in Chester would be very useful.
They only need the existing number of votes to keep Chester Labour. I know they have a perilously low majority. But it's FPTP and winner takes all.
I don't think so. There were 4000 UKIP votes last time round and there's no UKIP candidate this time. Labour can hold all its own voters from 2015 and still lose comprehensively.
We were told UKIP were not just Tories on Holiday, that they were taking as many Labour votes. In fact were were told that UKIP would be a real danger to Labour. Now UKIP have self destructed, it seems everyone thinks ALL their votes are going to the Tories, surely it's only a percentage.
I'd expect the anti Corbynite MSM will attack Corbyn for emboldening the terrorists. 'You're changing our foreign policy, you're winning'
Even the Independent seems to be putting the boot into Corbyn to help the Tories, using the headline "Jeremy Corbyn 'justifies' terrorism by linking UK foreign policy to terror attacks, claims Tory security minister".
So. Two weeks today. Corbyn's latest rallying speech to the comrades - from the podium in Downing Street.
It's going to happen. I just feel it in my bones. He's played a blinder in recent weeks, on any objective assessment Labour is completely owning this GE campaign. The Tories have been complacent and dull and offered nothing in a dogshit manifesto. They deserve to lose seats.
What an absolute effing disaster from the disaster of a party I have little option but to continue to support. In a thoroughly depressing week I am yet further depressed as this car crash continues to unfold.
I am no fan of Corbyn (as many here will know!!) but he has certainly completely out campaigned May, who has proved herself to be utterly inept in the crucible of a general election. Where we differ is that I still think the Tories will win big. That said, I also thought Clinton and Remain would win. In both those cases, however, I backed the opposite outcome as a value longshot. Labour now at least have come into view as a value longshot, from being completely out of the game two weeks ago.
I'd happily bet - given odds of sufficient value - that at 7.00 h on 9 June I wake up to a Tory majority greater than now. Maybe some strange seat gains and losses, admittedly, making the loss of Gower in 2015 look normal.
Under FPTP, hasn't Labour's voting efficiency been falling? It's no good piling up more Labour votes in Chester, Exeter, Bath or Cheltenham if one loses them in Darlington or Bishop Auckland and 20 seats rather like them. A gain of 15-20 Labour seats and a few from the SNP gives her a majority of around 50.
I'd have thought Labour votes in Chester would be very useful.
They only need the existing number of votes to keep Chester Labour. I know they have a perilously low majority. But it's FPTP and winner takes all.
I don't think so. There were 4000 UKIP votes last time round and there's no UKIP candidate this time. Labour can hold all its own voters from 2015 and still lose comprehensively.
We were told UKIP were not just Tories on Holiday, that they were taking as many Labour votes. In fact were were told that UKIP would be a real danger to Labour. Now UKIP have self destructed, it seems everyone thinks ALL their votes are going to the Tories, surely it's only a percentage.
It is only a percentage - but it is a majority. And in Chester that should be enough. Labour will need votes from elsewhere to hold the seat.
So. Two weeks today. Corbyn's latest rallying speech to the comrades - from the podium in Downing Street.
It's going to happen. I just feel it in my bones. He's played a blinder in recent weeks, on any objective assessment Labour is completely owning this GE campaign. The Tories have been complacent and dull and offered nothing in a dogshit manifesto. They deserve to lose seats.
What an absolute effing disaster from the disaster of a party I have little option but to continue to support. In a thoroughly depressing week I am yet further depressed as this car crash continues to unfold.
I am no fan of Corbyn (as many here will know!!) but he has certainly completely out campaigned May, who has proved herself to be utterly inept in the crucible of a general election. Where we differ is that I still think the Tories will win big. That said, I also thought Clinton and Remain would win. In both those cases, however, I backed the opposite outcome as a value longshot. Labour now at least have come into view as a value longshot, from being completely out of the game two weeks ago.
I'd happily bet - given odds of sufficient value - that at 7.00 h on 9 June I wake up to a Tory majority greater than now. Maybe some strange seat gains and losses, admittedly, making the loss of Gower in 2015 look normal.
Under FPTP, hasn't Labour's voting efficiency been falling? It's no good piling up more Labour votes in Chester, Exeter, Bath or Cheltenham if one loses them in Darlington or Bishop Auckland and 20 seats rather like them. A gain of 15-20 Labour seats and a few from the SNP gives her a majority of around 50.
I'd have thought Labour votes in Chester would be very useful.
They only need the existing number of votes to keep Chester Labour. I know they have a perilously low majority. But it's FPTP and winner takes all.
I don't think so. There were 4000 UKIP votes last time round and there's no UKIP candidate this time. Labour can hold all its own voters from 2015 and still lose comprehensively.
We were told UKIP were not just Tories on Holiday, that they were taking as many Labour votes. In fact were were told that UKIP would be a real danger to Labour. Now UKIP have self destructed, it seems everyone thinks ALL their votes are going to the Tories, surely it's only a percentage.
Farron accuses Corbyn of exploring Manchester by putting 'politics before people' after Corbyn's speech linking terrorism to foreign interventions. Corbyn has opposed strikes on ISIS as well as earlier wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40053427
Has anyone worked out whether Labour's apparent desire to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union (their wording is slightly vague) is compatible with their desire to nationalise everything?
Yup, we voted Leave to take back control, because of German car manufacturers putting pressure on Frau Merkel we will be able to do what ever we want to.
There are really quite striking parallels between the Corbocharge and Brexit, Trump and Indyref.
In all three cases, the underdog came from way behind, on a surge of emotional support and populism, fired up by social media. In two cases, Trump and Brexit, the surge was big enough to edge them to victory....
However, I think the very closest parallel is Indyref. The deficit from the start was/is probably a bit too big to be overtaken, and there's a stubborn plurality of the electorate, on the other side, that simply will not be budged.
On this basis, the Corbocharge will slip back somewhat in the final days, and TMay will get her pretty miserable 30-70 seat majority.
Mebbes.
Someone on here predicted there would at some point in 7 weeks be both a Tory wobble and a Tory lead below 10%. It may even have been yourself. Both have now eventuated.
I don't buy a 30-seat majority. It will be 100-odd. Nobody who went into a campaign with a huge lead of 20-odd per cent has held onto it. They all actually ended up 12 to 14 points ahead ('83, '87, '97, '01). And neither has anyone ever blown a lead that large and ended up behind. And neither has a majority government been replaced by a majority opposition in decades.
May will win by 10 to 12 points - 46:34 or so I would guess. This perversely will keep Corbyn in post and with enhanced authority to screw the Labour Party up in perpetuity.
And he will have that authority. As Nick Palmer said downthread all Labour MPs care about is keeping their seats. They only hate Corbyn because they think he jeopardises their seats. If it looks like that's not so, they'll flock loyally to him after all even if he introduced a policy of killing the first born. So long as he increases Labour's vote share and they keep their seats, what's not to like?
What result would a re-run of the confidence vote produce now? He'd win.
Has anyone worked out whether Labour's apparent desire to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union (their wording is slightly vague) is compatible with their desire to nationalise everything?
We're a target mainly because we're a western democracy. Belgium has been a target for the same reason too and I don't remember them being particularly active in bombing Syria. But hey also have a high Islamic population. Even if only 0.001% becomes radicalised, that's too many. And yes, I know that the vast majority have no time for IS.
I believe that the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1940s were outraged by the decadence of the USA then. Skirts only inches below the knee and women cavorting out on their own. I wonder what they think of modern life now?
If all else fails, you can blame the Reformation.
I agree. It's very difficult to understand why people would stand in the middle of a crowd enjoying themselves and deliberately aim to kill as many as possible of them.
Nevertheless Jeremy Corbyn has surprisingly delivered a good speech on the Manchester attack. Sympathetic, supportive and determined. You wouldn't expect him to shine on a security subject. Better than Theresa May's, although to be fair, she was in the middle of dealing with the attack and wouldn't have the luxury of time to think about what she was saying.
Has anyone worked out whether Labour's apparent desire to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union (their wording is slightly vague) is compatible with their desire to nationalise everything?
Isn't one of the rules of Brexit that the UK gets to do whatever it likes?
An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser who is a total pacifist who will not take decisive action when required to protect our way of life, who will not defend this country and will let Russia and China veto any war we ought to take part in. His free uncosted sweeties for all bribe will bankrupt the UK and make us the laughing stock of the world. He is the most dangerous politician and is a clear and present danger to the security of the UK. If he gets his hands anywhere near the levers of power we are all screwed, and the damage to the UK will be permanent. I fear for my childrens future if Labour win
Shall I put you down as a maybe!!
Do you feel safer now than in 2010?
yes
In what way are you safer?
Fewer police. army,navy RAF all cut
Higher immigration NHS less able to respond emergency services cut
Libya war made it a terrorist haven.
I do not understand why you feel safer seems completely irrational to me
I'd expect the anti Corbynite MSM will attack Corbyn for emboldening the terrorists. 'You're changing our foreign policy, you're winning'
Even the Independent seems to be putting the boot into Corbyn to help the Tories, using the headline "Jeremy Corbyn 'justifies' terrorism by linking UK foreign policy to terror attacks, claims Tory security minister".
Mandy Rice-Davies possessed greater wisdom than the Tory security minister. A better point might have been that even if Corbyn is right, it's irrelevant because absent a time machine, we are where we are, and that in any case the terrorists are not distinguishing British from American or even Russian actions. But I'm not sure a blanket repudiation of Corbyn works because most voters will think there is at least a basis in truth there.
An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser who is a total pacifist who will not take decisive action when required to protect our way of life, who will not defend this country and will let Russia and China veto any war we ought to take part in. His free uncosted sweeties for all bribe will bankrupt the UK and make us the laughing stock of the world. He is the most dangerous politician and is a clear and present danger to the security of the UK. If he gets his hands anywhere near the levers of power we are all screwed, and the damage to the UK will be permanent. I fear for my childrens future if Labour win
Shall I put you down as a maybe!!
Do you feel safer now than in 2010?
yes
In what way are you safer?
Fewer police. army,navy RAF all cut
Higher immigration NHS less able to respond emergency services cut
Libya war made it a terrorist haven.
I do not understand why you feel safer seems completely irrational to me
Where the f are senior Tories today? They should be dismantling Corbyn, he's saying we are losing the war on terror and at the same time we must change policy and even then attacks will still happen.,.... what he said is appalling in the extreme, he wants to blame US and tell us that we must still expect attacks but that we need to also give up trying to stand against terror. He is grotesque.
Has anyone worked out whether Labour's apparent desire to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union (their wording is slightly vague) is compatible with their desire to nationalise everything?
Journalists couldn't give a monkeys about Labour's manifesto.
Has anyone worked out whether Labour's apparent desire to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union (their wording is slightly vague) is compatible with their desire to nationalise everything?
Yup, we voted Leave to take back control, because of German car manufacturers putting pressure on Frau Merkel we will be able to do what ever we want to.
Definitely. Trade deficit and all that. Believe in Britain.
An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser who is a total pacifist who will not take decisive action when required to protect our way of life, who will not defend this country and will let Russia and China veto any war we ought to take part in. His free uncosted sweeties for all bribe will bankrupt the UK and make us the laughing stock of the world. He is the most dangerous politician and is a clear and present danger to the security of the UK. If he gets his hands anywhere near the levers of power we are all screwed, and the damage to the UK will be permanent. I fear for my childrens future if Labour win
Shall I put you down as a maybe!!
Do you feel safer now than in 2010?
yes
In what way are you safer?
Fewer police. army,navy RAF all cut
Higher immigration NHS less able to respond emergency services cut
Libya war made it a terrorist haven.
I do not understand why you feel safer seems completely irrational to me
Can you explain?
Immigration fell in figures yesterday, Corbyn will stop bombing ISIS and open the floodgates
The Conservative campaign is evidently too centralised. In order to attack Labour, the Conservatives apparently need Theresa May to sign off on the attack line. With her too busy at the G7, no one can say anything.
Where the f are senior Tories today? They should be dismantling Corbyn, he's saying we are losing the war on terror and at the same time we must change policy and even then attacks will still happen.,.... what he said is appalling in the extreme, he wants to blame US and tell us that we must still expect attacks but that we need to also give up trying to stand against terror. He is grotesque.
As Nick Palmer said downthread all Labour MPs care about is keeping their seats.
Whereas Tory MPs? Oh wait, some of them have a private income or they use their time in Westminster to develop business contacts before moving on and up.
For anyone with money prepare for the country to go bankrupt under Corbyn the IFS also effectively said.
Ha! If it was clear that a Labour win would bankrupt the country, the banks would SUPPORT Labour. There are still some juicy assets here that creditors would love to seize. Some are even in state hands.
For anyone with children/Grandchildren Schools face years of funding cuts if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone who may need HealthCare the NHS is in for even tougher times if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone who is Just about Managing prepare for more and more austerity if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone with a house ...................
For anyone with money prepare for the country to go bankrupt under Corbyn the IFS also effectively said. The Tories will increase the NHS budget
The IFS was pretty clear that the Labour and Tory manifestos are not worth the paper they are written on, which is what you would expect given the calibre of people in charge of both parties.
Where the f are senior Tories today? They should be dismantling Corbyn, he's saying we are losing the war on terror and at the same time we must change policy and even then attacks will still happen.,.... what he said is appalling in the extreme, he wants to blame US and tell us that we must still expect attacks but that we need to also give up trying to stand against terror. He is grotesque.
Yes. Corbyn has brought this up.
Fallon and co need to take the gloves off.
Yet they sit on their hands and wait for mummy. Frankly they deserve to lose this. We don't deserve Corbyn though.
The Conservative campaign is evidently too centralised. In order to attack Labour, the Conservatives apparently need Theresa May to sign off on the attack line. With her too busy at the G7, no one can say anything.
She can't be that busy - she just sent me an email.
Where the f are senior Tories today? They should be dismantling Corbyn, he's saying we are losing the war on terror and at the same time we must change policy and even then attacks will still happen.,.... what he said is appalling in the extreme, he wants to blame US and tell us that we must still expect attacks but that we need to also give up trying to stand against terror. He is grotesque.
At a guess: because May is a vacillating, indecisive, but ruthless control freak, nobody's allowed to say anything unless it's cleared with her first.
Senior Tories are therefore doing exactly what she wants. When it all goes horribly wrong, it can't be anybody's fault but hers.
An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser who is a total pacifist who will not take decisive action when required to protect our way of life, who will not defend this country and will let Russia and China veto any war we ought to take part in. His free uncosted sweeties for all bribe will bankrupt the UK and make us the laughing stock of the world. He is the most dangerous politician and is a clear and present danger to the security of the UK. If he gets his hands anywhere near the levers of power we are all screwed, and the damage to the UK will be permanent. I fear for my childrens future if Labour win
Shall I put you down as a maybe!!
Do you feel safer now than in 2010?
yes
In what way are you safer?
Fewer police. army,navy RAF all cut
Higher immigration NHS less able to respond emergency services cut
Libya war made it a terrorist haven.
I do not understand why you feel safer seems completely irrational to me
Can you explain?
Immigration fell in figures yesterday, Corbyn will stop bombing ISIS and open the floodgates
Net migration fell; immigration didn't. From outside the EU - the bit we control - it went up.
If , as Corbyn argues there is a direct correlation between involvement in foreign wars and jihadi terrorism can he or one of his supporters on here please remind us of the part played by Belgium and Sweden in war.
Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?
They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.
So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?
But are they? Isn't it more that Labour are hoovering up the LibDems and Greens and Commies and Don't Usually Vote, and the Tories are losing votes to Don't Knows?
There is a point (I would suggest already reached) at which Labour cannot make further progress without getting Tories to switch to them. And they will be a much harder nut to crack.
Yesterday Yougov showed almost equal numbers moving from Con to Lab and vice versa and Lib Dem to Lab and vice versa . The only significant moves were UKIP to Con and a smaller Con to Lib Dem move all since 2015
What matters, to both sides, is the extent to which the Lab to LD and LD to Lab switchers live in different seats.
My office v worried about Corbyn winning, my colleague's husband will cry if he does !
The last two weeks will see a lot of new dynamics - the snoozy "done deal " of an election with a comfortable majority, in a comfortably sunny, post-Brexit summer for Tory voters - suddenly reversed and made into an apparently more active struggle - plus the press exercising its familiar propagandising role, now made even easier in the wake of a national tragedy.
Result - Tory win of 30-40 seats ( at an average guess ) .
Comments
But Jezza would go further whatever he says. There are literally no circumstances where he would commit British troops to war. Ever.
Even if the British realm itself was about to be invaded by another country he would still be unable to go to war which he has been very honest about over the past 40 years to be fair.
Other than this, I can see the merits in Corbyn actually... But the one thing that holds me back for voting for him is that I just don't think the country would be secure with him.
It's a dilemma....
The next Ipsos MORI poll will be on election day.
Do you feel safer now than in 2010?
Bibbly Bobbly
For that matter, has Alex Younger or any previous head of MI6 ever had a word to say that is the tiniest bit critical of the British government's decades-long fawning to Salafist headchoppers in the Gulf in return for signatures on multibillion pound weapons deals?
Corbyn completely outclasses May in the seriousness and sense with which he addresses the terrorism problem. He deserves to be prime minister more than any other major party leader for more than 30 years.
The Tory response to Manchester has been absolute sh**. Had they actually put soldiers into shopping centres and sporting events, I would have supported that. Instead, they grandstand and put more soldiers outside Buckingham Palace which was already protected by the army anyway. Their lapdog press doesn't even ask who ran the security at the Manchester Arena and how such events might be made more secure in future. And they have the gall to say a vote for the rabid foxhunting xenophobic right-wing nasties is a vote for "security".
Good. Bouncy MORI is not good for PBers' blood pressure.
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/868056591324655616
More generally: if I've understood properly, Corbyn's views on military intervention would require us to exit NATO. Would that be correct?
https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/868057101700128769
We're a target mainly because we're a western democracy. Belgium has been a target for the same reason too and I don't remember them being particularly active in bombing Syria. But hey also have a high Islamic population. Even if only 0.001% becomes radicalised, that's too many. And yes, I know that the vast majority have no time for IS.
I believe that the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1940s were outraged by the decadence of the USA then. Skirts only inches below the knee and women cavorting out on their own. I wonder what they think of modern life now?
If all else fails, you can blame the Reformation.
For anyone who may need HealthCare the NHS is in for even tougher times if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone who is Just about Managing prepare for more and more austerity if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone with a house ...................
Now UKIP have self destructed, it seems everyone thinks ALL their votes are going to the Tories, surely it's only a percentage.
'You're changing our foreign policy, you're winning'
I would be running down the street shouting.
Unfortunately aint going to happen TMICIPM
LAB peaked with last nights YG its all SWINGBACK from here
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40053427
I don't buy a 30-seat majority. It will be 100-odd. Nobody who went into a campaign with a huge lead of 20-odd per cent has held onto it. They all actually ended up 12 to 14 points ahead ('83, '87, '97, '01). And neither has anyone ever blown a lead that large and ended up behind. And neither has a majority government been replaced by a majority opposition in decades.
May will win by 10 to 12 points - 46:34 or so I would guess. This perversely will keep Corbyn in post and with enhanced authority to screw the Labour Party up in perpetuity.
And he will have that authority. As Nick Palmer said downthread all Labour MPs care about is keeping their seats. They only hate Corbyn because they think he jeopardises their seats. If it looks like that's not so, they'll flock loyally to him after all even if he introduced a policy of killing the first born. So long as he increases Labour's vote share and they keep their seats, what's not to like?
What result would a re-run of the confidence vote produce now? He'd win.
@jessicaelgot: Farron is being shown around by Colin Parry, father of 12 year old Tim who was killed in the IRA’s bombing of Warrington in March 1993.
Nevertheless Jeremy Corbyn has surprisingly delivered a good speech on the Manchester attack. Sympathetic, supportive and determined. You wouldn't expect him to shine on a security subject. Better than Theresa May's, although to be fair, she was in the middle of dealing with the attack and wouldn't have the luxury of time to think about what she was saying.
Fewer police. army,navy RAF all cut
Higher immigration NHS less able to respond emergency services cut
Libya war made it a terrorist haven.
I do not understand why you feel safer seems completely irrational to me
Can you explain?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/868059860126093312
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/868060134966267904
https://twitter.com/jamesmatesitv/status/868061773852790784
He is grotesque.
We trade in market sentiment.
Fallon and co need to take the gloves off.
Which positive policies are attracting you to the Tories?
Frankly they deserve to lose this. We don't deserve Corbyn though.
Senior Tories are therefore doing exactly what she wants. When it all goes horribly wrong, it can't be anybody's fault but hers.
Result - Tory win of 30-40 seats ( at an average guess ) .