For anyone with children/Grandchildren Schools face years of funding cuts if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone who may need HealthCare the NHS is in for even tougher times if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone who is Just about Managing prepare for more and more austerity if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone with a house ...................
For anyone with money prepare for the country to go bankrupt under Corbyn the IFS also effectively said. The Tories will increase the NHS budget
You think the country will go bankrupt? The IFS think there is a £9bn black hole in Labs manifesto dont they, chicken feed.
Which positive policies are attracting you to the Tories?
Labour would worsen the deficit and their higher taxes would slow growth and lead to a brain drain, Corbyn would weaken border controls and immigration policy and go soft on ISIS
May's Tories? F... em, I hope they get their arses handed to them. I'll have my free puppy please, and my state leccy and my nationalised train network. I'll have all the freebies and someone else can pay later when I'm gone. The war on Corbyn isn't working, let's give up.
As Nick Palmer said downthread all Labour MPs care about is keeping their seats.
Whereas Tory MPs? Oh wait, some of them have a private income or they use their time in Westminster to develop business contacts before moving on and up.
For anyone with money prepare for the country to go bankrupt under Corbyn the IFS also effectively said.
Ha! If it was clear that a Labour win would bankrupt the country, the banks would SUPPORT Labour. There are still some juicy assets here that creditors would love to seize. Some are even in state hands.
If Corbyn got in the banks may well all eventually be in state hands
Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?
They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.
So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?
But are they? Isn't it more that Labour are hoovering up the LibDems and Greens and Commies and Don't Usually Vote, and the Tories are losing votes to Don't Knows?
There is a point (I would suggest already reached) at which Labour cannot make further progress without getting Tories to switch to them. And they will be a much harder nut to crack.
Yesterday Yougov showed almost equal numbers moving from Con to Lab and vice versa and Lib Dem to Lab and vice versa . The only significant moves were UKIP to Con and a smaller Con to Lib Dem move all since 2015
What matters, to both sides, is the extent to which the Lab to LD and LD to Lab switchers live in different seats.
The Conservative campaign is evidently too centralised. In order to attack Labour, the Conservatives apparently need Theresa May to sign off on the attack line. With her too busy at the G7, no one can say anything.
The Conservative campaign is evidently too centralised. In order to attack Labour, the Conservatives apparently need Theresa May to sign off on the attack line. With her too busy at the G7, no one can say anything.
She can't be that busy - she just sent me an email.
Can you email her back and ask her what the fuck she thinks she's playing at then?
Actually that's a good speech by Jeremy Corbyn. A good take on supporting those that aim to keep us safe. I don't think I go along with his linkage between terrorism and our foreign policy, but he has a point that military operations have consequences, so you need to think carefully about them. Corbyn's instinct is to disengage, but the same instinct is driving Brexit. A lot of people go along with it.
"Disengage" is one thing but there are absolutely no circumstances where he would ever commit troops to war...
On the whole I think that's a good thing. War is bad and there should always be a reluctance to go that route. Maybe more important, however, there are few if any circumstances where Corbyn would ever consider committing troops to war.
Funnily enough, that I disagree with his argument that there is a strong linkage between our foreign attacks and terrorist activity on our soil, actually strengthens his main point that more military action abroad will not lead to a safer environment here.
Where the f are senior Tories today? They should be dismantling Corbyn, he's saying we are losing the war on terror and at the same time we must change policy and even then attacks will still happen.,.... what he said is appalling in the extreme, he wants to blame US and tell us that we must still expect attacks but that we need to also give up trying to stand against terror. He is grotesque.
Yes. Corbyn has brought this up.
Fallon and co need to take the gloves off.
Yet they sit on their hands and wait for mummy. Frankly they deserve to lose this. We don't deserve Corbyn though.
That's because Mummy will club them senseless if they cross her. She may later decide they were right all along, but they won't then be forgiven or reinstated.
I'm reminded of the comedian Dave Allen's experience of his first day at proper school aged five. He was met by a terrifying Mother Superior who bellowed at him "Now are you going to be a good little boy?" Over her shoulder on a wall he could see an effigy of a bloke nailed to two planks of wood and he thought "You're ****ing right I'm going to be a good little boy."
Labour are now 6/1 to WIN the election. What were they before? 12/1?
20/1?
A Hung Parliament is now just 13/2
There's still 12/1 on Betfair for Lab most seats, and the hung parliament is 9/1.
Sounds like bookies are reacting to weight of money from the Corbynistas, which means there's probably some value on the other side. Both the indicated bets are arb-able on the exchange.
Where the f are senior Tories today? They should be dismantling Corbyn, he's saying we are losing the war on terror and at the same time we must change policy and even then attacks will still happen.,.... what he said is appalling in the extreme, he wants to blame US and tell us that we must still expect attacks but that we need to also give up trying to stand against terror. He is grotesque.
At a guess: because May is a vacillating, indecisive, but ruthless control freak, nobody's allowed to say anything unless it's cleared with her first.
Senior Tories are therefore doing exactly what she wants. When it all goes horribly wrong, it can't be anybody's fault but hers.
Maggie had her Norman and her Cecil and in her early days her Willie to field this shit - TM seems to lack a charismatic and articulate right hand man.
My office v worried about Corbyn winning, my colleague's husband will cry if he does !
The last two weeks will see a lot of new dynamics - the snoozy "done deal " of an election with a comfortable majority, in a comfortably sunny, post-Brexit summer for Tory voters - suddenly reversed and made into an apparently more active struggle - plus the press exercising its familiar propagandising role, now made even easier in the wake of a national tragedy.
Result - Tory win of 30-40 seats ( at an average guess ) .
Tory majority of 30-40 seats, I should say, rather than gains, to clarify.
Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?
They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.
So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?
But are they? Isn't it more that Labour are hoovering up the LibDems and Greens and Commies and Don't Usually Vote, and the Tories are losing votes to Don't Knows?
There is a point (I would suggest already reached) at which Labour cannot make further progress without getting Tories to switch to them. And they will be a much harder nut to crack.
Yesterday Yougov showed almost equal numbers moving from Con to Lab and vice versa and Lib Dem to Lab and vice versa . The only significant moves were UKIP to Con and a smaller Con to Lib Dem move all since 2015
What matters, to both sides, is the extent to which the Lab to LD and LD to Lab switchers live in different seats.
Yougov showed a small net gain from Labour by the Tories and from the Tories by the LDs and from the LDs by Labour and from UKIP by Labour. The biggest net gain remained from UKIP to Tory
The Conservative campaign is evidently too centralised. In order to attack Labour, the Conservatives apparently need Theresa May to sign off on the attack line. With her too busy at the G7, no one can say anything.
Agree, although you put it better. Until May tells everyone exactly what to say, nobody says anything at all.
Has anyone worked out whether Labour's apparent desire to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union (their wording is slightly vague) is compatible with their desire to nationalise everything?
Isn't one of the rules of Brexit that the UK gets to do whatever it likes?
Yeah, whatever, yawn, it would be nice if someone answered the question. It seems quite important to me.
Labour seems to want to be in the single market to the extent that it is possible. In effect, that would probably mean shadowing it, rather than being a part of it. One of the reasons the left has always wanted out of it in the past is precisely because it makes state ownership much harder.
The Conservative campaign is evidently too centralised. In order to attack Labour, the Conservatives apparently need Theresa May to sign off on the attack line. With her too busy at the G7, no one can say anything.
She can't be that busy - she just sent me an email.
Can you email her back and ask her what the fuck she thinks she's playing at then?
For months we have pontificated on PB about whether Corbyn was a secret agent plant by the Tories who has been a sleeper for 30 years.
But no, it appears May is a hard left Labour plant who has been a sleeper for 30 years.
An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser who is a total pacifist who will not take decisive action when required to protect our way of life, who will not defend this country and will let Russia and China veto any war we ought to take part in. His free uncosted sweeties for all bribe will bankrupt the UK and make us the laughing stock of the world. He is the most dangerous politician and is a clear and present danger to the security of the UK. If he gets his hands anywhere near the levers of power we are all screwed, and the damage to the UK will be permanent. I fear for my childrens future if Labour win
Shall I put you down as a maybe!!
Do you feel safer now than in 2010?
yes
In what way are you safer?
Fewer police. army,navy RAF all cut
Higher immigration NHS less able to respond emergency services cut
Libya war made it a terrorist haven.
I do not understand why you feel safer seems completely irrational to me
Can you explain?
Immigration fell in figures yesterday, Corbyn will stop bombing ISIS and open the floodgates
Net migration fell; immigration didn't. From outside the EU - the bit we control - it went up.
Net migration from the EU, especially Eastern Europe fell and net migration overall fell. Outside the EU May could start with a travel and immigration ban from Libya and Syria
One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.
My office v worried about Corbyn winning, my colleague's husband will cry if he does !
The last two weeks will see a lot of new dynamics - the snoozy "done deal " of an election with a comfortable majority, in a comfortably sunny, post-Brexit summer for Tory voters - suddenly reversed and made into an apparently more active struggle - plus the press exercising its familiar propagandising role, now made even easier in the wake of a national tragedy.
Result - Tory win of 30-40 seats ( at an average guess ) .
Tory majority of 30-40 seats, I should say, rather than gains, to clarify.
That would be enough for her to be able to see of the hard line Brexiteers - if she wants to.
My office v worried about Corbyn winning, my colleague's husband will cry if he does !
The last two weeks will see a lot of new dynamics - the snoozy "done deal " of an election with a comfortable majority, in a comfortably sunny, post-Brexit summer for Tory voters - suddenly reversed and made into an apparently more active struggle - plus the press exercising its familiar propagandising role, now made even easier in the wake of a national tragedy.
Result - Tory win of 30-40 seats ( at an average guess ) .
The Tories would win 10 SNP Scottish seats with yougov too which would increase their majority by 20 overall
Where the f are senior Tories today? They should be dismantling Corbyn, he's saying we are losing the war on terror and at the same time we must change policy and even then attacks will still happen.,.... what he said is appalling in the extreme, he wants to blame US and tell us that we must still expect attacks but that we need to also give up trying to stand against terror. He is grotesque.
At a guess: because May is a vacillating, indecisive, but ruthless control freak, nobody's allowed to say anything unless it's cleared with her first.
Senior Tories are therefore doing exactly what she wants. When it all goes horribly wrong, it can't be anybody's fault but hers.
Maggie had her Norman and her Cecil and in her early days her Willie to field this shit - TM seems to lack a charismatic and articulate right hand man.
Also until her last years in power Maggie would at least listen to criticism and get advice from people outside her inner circle, even if she didn't always follow it. There is no sign of Mrs May doing that, and the people in her inner circle aren't nearly as good.
One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.
and tuition fees. That will definitely have cut through with young people. They will probably vote on that alone.
Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
I don't seriously entertain the prospect of Labour winning. The Conservatives winning by less than they ought, making way for Gove to be PM in the future is a tantalising prospect though.
Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
It is hilarious. All of a sudden they begin to realise the narrative is not necessarily theirs to control. The serious bit of this, of course, is that we now know we are going to be putting lightweights up against the EU in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. The entire strong and stable meme has been shot to pieces. May is stunningly mediocre, but wins because she is not Jeremy Corbyn. That will hurt the Tories big time in the coming years.
We'll probably still end up with something that's branded as Brexit although fuck knows what it will actually be.
Why?
If the British public reject the "Brexit means Brexit" candidate at the ballot box, using Brexiteer logic "the will of the people" is obviously that we should not Brexit...
One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.
and tuition fees. That will definitely have cut through with young people. They will probably vote on that alone.
Fair point, yes that is well known among younger groups I guess (and parents of young people).
One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.
Brexit and immigration cut they know that and what they want are tougher border controls
Clinton vs Trump; Remain vs Leave; Better Together vs the SNP. Corbyn has learned that relentless attacks on the other side don't always work; you need a positive message instead, or at least as well.
The pb Tories calling for one more round of Corbyn-bashing haven't.
The Tories are still 95% on course for a majority, but the chances of a landslide have receded somewhat (I'm not counting anything out in today's surreal political landscape).
As a very critical supporter of Corbyn less because of the man himself (though I think he is having a decent campaign) but because I want the electorate to have a genuine choice of a decent centre-left party that has rediscovered its soul, I'll be very happy if May basically stands still though.
Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
It is hilarious. All of a sudden they begin to realise the narrative is not necessarily theirs to control. The serious bit of this, of course, is that we now know we are going to be putting lightweights up against the EU in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. The entire strong and stable meme has been shot to pieces. May is stunningly mediocre, but wins because she is not Jeremy Corbyn. That will hurt the Tories big time in the coming years.
Yes it has, and without any help at all from Labour. They did it to themselves.
Where the f are senior Tories today? They should be dismantling Corbyn, he's saying we are losing the war on terror and at the same time we must change policy and even then attacks will still happen.,.... what he said is appalling in the extreme, he wants to blame US and tell us that we must still expect attacks but that we need to also give up trying to stand against terror. He is grotesque.
At a guess: because May is a vacillating, indecisive, but ruthless control freak, nobody's allowed to say anything unless it's cleared with her first.
Senior Tories are therefore doing exactly what she wants. When it all goes horribly wrong, it can't be anybody's fault but hers.
Maggie had her Norman and her Cecil and in her early days her Willie to field this shit - TM seems to lack a charismatic and articulate right hand man.
One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.
Well, she did want Dementia Tax placed centre stage in her manifesto. And she has got what she wanted.
Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
Sorry don't buy that. The smartest thing Corbyn did was to rule out a second referendum thereby helping to negate the EU as an election issue. OK Lab Brexit would be softish but there we go - plenty of Tories such as myself can live with that. The pro EU Lib Dems are stuffed and will be lucky to hang on to five seats.
Has anyone worked out whether Labour's apparent desire to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union (their wording is slightly vague) is compatible with their desire to nationalise everything?
Isn't one of the rules of Brexit that the UK gets to do whatever it likes?
Yeah, whatever, yawn, it would be nice if someone answered the question. It seems quite important to me.
Labour seems to want to be in the single market to the extent that it is possible. In effect, that would probably mean shadowing it, rather than being a part of it. One of the reasons the left has always wanted out of it in the past is precisely because it makes state ownership much harder.
I agree that is their thinking, but given that energy and rail (for example) are nationalised widely in other wealthy European nations, it can't presumably be that much of a barrier?
Clinton vs Trump; Remain vs Leave; Better Together vs the SNP. Corbyn has learned that relentless attacks on the other side don't always work; you need a positive message instead, or at least as well.
The pb Tories calling for one more round of Corbyn-bashing haven't.
Positive message? All Corbyn has done over the last week is slam Tory social care and police and foreign policies
It is hilarious. All of a sudden they begin to realise the narrative is not necessarily theirs to control. The serious bit of this, of course, is that we now know we are going to be putting lightweights up against the EU in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. The entire strong and stable meme has been shot to pieces. May is stunningly mediocre, but wins because she is not Jeremy Corbyn. That will hurt the Tories big time in the coming years.
Yup, every time May says "I am going to get a good deal" there will be an audible chorus of "Dementia Tax".
Even if she gets a 50 odd majority, the headbangers will be restless
One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.
Corbyn has been very visible and the policies have had tremendous cut-through.
May has been invisible (campaign-wise) and the policies have had zero cut-througj other than the "Dementia Tax".
The Tory campaign has been terrible and I bet they now wish they'd never called the election.
An informed understanding of the causes of terrorism is an essential part of an effective response.
Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser who is a total pacifist who will not take decisive action when required to protect our way of life, who will not defend this country and will let Russia and China veto any war we ought to take part in. His free uncosted sweeties for all bribe will bankrupt the UK and make us the laughing stock of the world. He is the most dangerous politician and is a clear and present danger to the security of the UK. If he gets his hands anywhere near the levers of power we are all screwed, and the damage to the UK will be permanent. I fear for my childrens future if Labour win
Shall I put you down as a maybe!!
Do you feel safer now than in 2010?
yes
In what way are you safer?
Fewer police. army,navy RAF all cut
Higher immigration NHS less able to respond emergency services cut
Libya war made it a terrorist haven.
I do not understand why you feel safer seems completely irrational to me
Can you explain?
Immigration fell in figures yesterday, Corbyn will stop bombing ISIS and open the floodgates
Net migration fell; immigration didn't. From outside the EU - the bit we control - it went up.
Net migration from the EU, especially Eastern Europe fell and net migration overall fell. Outside the EU May could start with a travel and immigration ban from Libya and Syria
Where the f are senior Tories today? They should be dismantling Corbyn, he's saying we are losing the war on terror and at the same time we must change policy and even then attacks will still happen.,.... what he said is appalling in the extreme, he wants to blame US and tell us that we must still expect attacks but that we need to also give up trying to stand against terror. He is grotesque.
At a guess: because May is a vacillating, indecisive, but ruthless control freak, nobody's allowed to say anything unless it's cleared with her first.
Senior Tories are therefore doing exactly what she wants. When it all goes horribly wrong, it can't be anybody's fault but hers.
Maggie had her Norman and her Cecil and in her early days her Willie to field this shit - TM seems to lack a charismatic and articulate right hand man.
Boris
Indeed perhaps he's keeping his powder dry until next week.
One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.
and tuition fees. That will definitely have cut through with young people. They will probably vote on that alone.
All my three are firm Corbynites, much to my distress. But they feel - probably quite justifiably - that they have no real stake in society as it currently works. Corbyn is a genuine anti-establishment figure, with a genuine anti-establishment message. We live in anti-establishment times.
@PennyMordaunt: Corbyn's comments todays fail the judgement test on every front: ignorant, wrong, hypocritical and tasteless. Really sad for HM opposition.
Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
It is hilarious. All of a sudden they begin to realise the narrative is not necessarily theirs to control. The serious bit of this, of course, is that we now know we are going to be putting lightweights up against the EU in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. The entire strong and stable meme has been shot to pieces. May is stunningly mediocre, but wins because she is not Jeremy Corbyn. That will hurt the Tories big time in the coming years.
If May wins she has a mandate to take the UK out of the single market and end free movement and reduce payments to the EU, what the EU thinks is irrelevant, the British people will have rejected soft Brexit and some form of WTO terms are inevitable
Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
If Brexit leads to a Labour majority government, led by Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell, I will officially regret my LEAVE vote. But not unless and until.
relax the sun is shining it's a bank holiday weekend . all the tories are off on their hols . this week has been gcse week for most families . politics is a distant thought barring the sad events in manchester. we panicked in 2015 with EdM on the scene . Corbyn makes him look like a tory. No when June the 8th arrives the country will make it clear they do not want a socialist experiment in the 21st century UK . we need to give more attention to the leadership and best PM ratings they give a more accurate prediction of election outcome than the polls especially You Gov labour infiltrated panels
Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?
They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.
So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?
But are they? Isn't it more that Labour are hoovering up the LibDems and Greens and Commies and Don't Usually Vote, and the Tories are losing votes to Don't Knows?
There is a point (I would suggest already reached) at which Labour cannot make further progress without getting Tories to switch to them. And they will be a much harder nut to crack.
Yesterday Yougov showed almost equal numbers moving from Con to Lab and vice versa and Lib Dem to Lab and vice versa . The only significant moves were UKIP to Con and a smaller Con to Lib Dem move all since 2015
What matters, to both sides, is the extent to which the Lab to LD and LD to Lab switchers live in different seats.
Yougov showed a small net gain from Labour by the Tories and from the Tories by the LDs and from the LDs by Labour and from UKIP by Labour. The biggest net gain remained from UKIP to Tory
My point was that we are reaching the point where anti-Tory tactical voting could be key.
There is no way from the national VI polls to tell the difference between a) a UNS towards Labour away from the LibDems, UKIP and Greens and b) a swing towards whichever candidate in each seat stands the best chance of beating the Tory
Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
It is hilarious. All of a sudden they begin to realise the narrative is not necessarily theirs to control. The serious bit of this, of course, is that we now know we are going to be putting lightweights up against the EU in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. The entire strong and stable meme has been shot to pieces. May is stunningly mediocre, but wins because she is not Jeremy Corbyn. That will hurt the Tories big time in the coming years.
Yes it has, and without any help at all from Labour. They did it to themselves.
Indeed - which shows how weak and unstable they actually are. They'll still get past Jezza, but God help us all after that.
Where the f are senior Tories today? They should be dismantling Corbyn, he's saying we are losing the war on terror and at the same time we must change policy and even then attacks will still happen.,.... what he said is appalling in the extreme, he wants to blame US and tell us that we must still expect attacks but that we need to also give up trying to stand against terror. He is grotesque.
At a guess: because May is a vacillating, indecisive, but ruthless control freak, nobody's allowed to say anything unless it's cleared with her first.
Senior Tories are therefore doing exactly what she wants. When it all goes horribly wrong, it can't be anybody's fault but hers.
Maggie had her Norman and her Cecil and in her early days her Willie to field this shit - TM seems to lack a charismatic and articulate right hand man.
Boris
Indeed perhaps he's keeping his powder dry until next week.
He may see this as a chance to wield the dagger again, if she wins by only 25...
She may not have (m?)any friends, if she's a cold control freak.
If , as Corbyn argues there is a direct correlation between involvement in foreign wars and jihadi terrorism can he or one of his supporters on here please remind us of the part played by Belgium and Sweden in war.
Not that I'm a Corbyn supporter, but I'd presume that the Jihadis view themselves as fighters against repression by Christians as a whole rather than by individual nations, in much the same way as we frequently lump Muslims together as a single entity.
Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
It is hilarious. All of a sudden they begin to realise the narrative is not necessarily theirs to control. The serious bit of this, of course, is that we now know we are going to be putting lightweights up against the EU in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. The entire strong and stable meme has been shot to pieces. May is stunningly mediocre, but wins because she is not Jeremy Corbyn. That will hurt the Tories big time in the coming years.
I am forced to agree. TMay is appalling. All this Ed Miliband energy cap shit, I hate it. AND it hasn't even worked, politically, that's the incredible thing. She thought she could park her tanks on the lefty lawn, but everyone in Labour just moved even further left, taking millions of voters with them.
So she has single-handedly ratcheted our politics wildly to the left. You should be happy.
Meanwhile she has proved inept at low politicking, and bad at strategy, and stupid at stuff like students and the Single Market. Her big thing was lowering immigration, yet it can't be that important to voters as 38% of them are happy with maximum immigration under Corbs.
She and her team have misread this in every which way. Even if she wins it will go down as the worst campaign ever, and the auguries for Brexit are BAD.
Nul points, Ms May. And she walks in a stupid way and does weird grimaces which make me wince. And she wears big flappy tartan trousers like a fucking 6 foot clown crossed with a castrated heron.
Oh God we're all doomed. DOOMED.
If I wasn't in love with a very beautiful 21 year old, I might be quite depressed.
I'm going out now.
May is on 42% precisely because of immigration, if she agreed to soft Brexit now all those extra voters would return to UKIP and Corbyn may well get a hung parliament and a coalition of chaos
Lynton Crosby still the infallible oracle that some on here portray him as?
Tories will still win comfortably BTW
I wonder how much influence he actually has on this campaign though. I don't get the impression that May will listen to him as readily as Cameron did, and he was drafted in quite late. As he puts it himself, you can't fatten a pig on market day.
Anyway he's not infallible. Goldsmith still lost despite having Crosby on board.
The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.
How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?
The social care U-turn has screwed this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?
Watching the site's Leavers cack themselves at the thought of Labour winning is just awesome.
It is hilarious. All of a sudden they begin to realise the narrative is not necessarily theirs to control. The serious bit of this, of course, is that we now know we are going to be putting lightweights up against the EU in the forthcoming Brexit negotiations. The entire strong and stable meme has been shot to pieces. May is stunningly mediocre, but wins because she is not Jeremy Corbyn. That will hurt the Tories big time in the coming years.
If May wins she has a mandate to take the UK out of the single market and end free movement and reduce payments to the EU, what the EU thinks is irrelevant, the British people will have rejected soft Brexit and some form of WTO terms are inevitable
Yep - and the British people will just shrug their shoulders and say, "yep, that's what we voted for, it's all our fault, we deserve all the economic and financial pain that has ensued". Of course they will :-D
Clinton vs Trump; Remain vs Leave; Better Together vs the SNP. Corbyn has learned that relentless attacks on the other side don't always work; you need a positive message instead, or at least as well.
The pb Tories calling for one more round of Corbyn-bashing haven't.
Labour have always had a positive message. All the Tories have got is "Corbyn eats babies".
The Tories don't even have a positive message on how to deal with terrorism. As for Brexit, it was a long-term split in the right, including in the Tory party, that caused Brexit, and the main right-wing party hasn't got a clue what to do next. "Red White and Blue Brexit" is about as contentful as "Up Yer Arse Brexit", and about as contemptuous towards the population.
Labour's positive message is there. But they also need to use the weapon of negativity more. Let's hope they can do it in an effective way.
Well, looking at the YouGov internals, I've done the following exercise:
- Looked at the expected turnout - they have over 75% (!) - Gone through the raw churn (including those to D/K, WNV); those who voted last time should overwhelmingly dominate the actual turnout on June 8th. - Followed the old ICM process of returning 50% of D/K to whoever they voted for in 2015. - Added in the 18-19 year-olds as 2/7ths of the 18-24 bracket as genuine voters who won't have voted last time.
This produces (from exactly the same respondents): Con 45% Lab 35% LD 10% UKIP 4% Turnout 66.4%
This is not to say "these are the 'real' figures"; it just underlines how much the assumptions and turnout adjustments can affect the numbers. (I still have very real discomfort with the sampling response levels and the difficulty that all pollsters keep having at getting a decent mixed sample without having to resort to constant weighting up or down of the same brackets every time) It implies that about 6% of Conservative respondents, 20% of Labour respondents, and 10% of Lib Dem respondents are from the "Did Not Vote Last Time" brigade. Which is one that almost always lives up to the name (last June was the only time I can think of in my lifetime that they didn't live up to the name). They may turn out after all in a fortnight, but I don't rate that as a high probability.
One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.
Well, she did want Dementia Tax placed centre stage in her manifesto. And she has got what she wanted.
Why would Conservative supporters switch to Labour because of the manifesto Social Care policy when Labour would make inheritance tax far worse for them?
They won’t. They might have a hissy fit like SeanT.
So why are the polls showing a big move from Conservative to Labour?
But are they? Isn't it more that Labour are hoovering up the LibDems and Greens and Commies and Don't Usually Vote, and the Tories are losing votes to Don't Knows?
There is a point (I would suggest already reached) at which Labour cannot make further progress without getting Tories to switch to them. And they will be a much harder nut to crack.
Yesterday Yougov showed almost equal numbers moving from Con to Lab and vice versa and Lib Dem to Lab and vice versa . The only significant moves were UKIP to Con and a smaller Con to Lib Dem move all since 2015
What matters, to both sides, is the extent to which the Lab to LD and LD to Lab switchers live in different seats.
Yougov showed a small net gain from Labour by the Tories and from the Tories by the LDs and from the LDs by Labour and from UKIP by Labour. The biggest net gain remained from UKIP to Tory
My point was that we are reaching the point where anti-Tory tactical voting could be key.
There is no way from the national VI polls to tell the difference between a) a UNS towards Labour away from the LibDems, UKIP and Greens and b) a swing towards whichever candidate in each seat stands the best chance of beating the Tory
We know that 400 seats voted Leave and in most of those the UKIP vote is going Tory, we know 200 seats voted Remain and in most of those the LD vote is going Labour with some Labour votes going LD in LD target seats. I therefore expect the Tories to have a better performance in terms of Labour seat gains than their lead in the national popular vote
The Conservative campaign is evidently too centralised. In order to attack Labour, the Conservatives apparently need Theresa May to sign off on the attack line. With her too busy at the G7, no one can say anything.
She can't be that busy - she just sent me an email.
Can you email her back and ask her what the fuck she thinks she's playing at then?
Dear Mr or Ms Rose,
I will be out of the office in Sicily starting today returning next week. During this time I will have no access to emails as MI6 confiscate my phone so that I can ignore SMS messages from Donald. If you need immediate assistance during my absence, please contact Mr N. Timothy on Monday, at bignick@no10.gov.uk.
Otherwise I will respond to your emails as soon as possible upon my return.
The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.
How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?
The social care U-turn has f*cked this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?
What were they thinking?
Mrs May has promised a Brexit that will improve the living standards of millions of ordinary Britons. She will be judged on her delivery of that.
One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.
Brexit and immigration cut they know that and what they want are tougher border controls
Brexit means brexit? It's a trite, inane phrase. It's not a policy.
For anyone with children/Grandchildren Schools face years of funding cuts if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone who may need HealthCare the NHS is in for even tougher times if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone who is Just about Managing prepare for more and more austerity if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone with a house ...................
For anyone with money prepare for the country to go bankrupt under Corbyn the IFS also effectively said. The Tories will increase the NHS budget
You think the country will go bankrupt? The IFS think there is a £9bn black hole in Labs manifesto dont they, chicken feed.
Which positive policies are attracting you to the Tories?
Labour would worsen the deficit and their higher taxes would slow growth and lead to a brain drain, Corbyn would weaken border controls and immigration policy and go soft on ISIS
BOOM time is almost here !!!! Infrastructure spending, School repaired, Council houses to be built and MONEY is CHEAP. Cheapest in 300 years.
The time is now for May. In 2015, Cameron got a right kick up the arse for a lack lustre 2 weeks (much shorter campaign) and fired up the activists. May has done virtually nothing - when back from the G7 she needs to seize back the headlines with rallies - if she has it in her....
One of the biggest problems for May is that no-one knows any of her policies, save the Dementia Tax, which everyone knows about. I tried this test last night: it really works. Try it in the pub tonight. Q: Name a Tory policy. A: The Dementia Tax. Q: Name another. A: Err...
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.
Brexit and immigration cut they know that and what they want are tougher border controls
Brexit means brexit? It's a trite, inane phrase. It's not a policy.
We are finding out during this election campaign that while Brexit means Brexit, Brexit also means Brexit, which seems to have come as a surprise to some.
I wish there was more exposure of the different flavours of the Muslim faith and how much they all violently hate each other. It may start to feed the narrative about 'don't touch them with a barge pole'. In addition, looking at non EU immigration, I've never understood how family members have a right to come here. Why should Auntie Doris be allowed to come here and then get her cousin Edgar to come as well.
I've just been VI'd by YouGov. Also included a 'How will you vote in Hertsmere?' question.
Ditto here. With the names of the four candidates standing in Richmond Park.
I think it is forcing out the tactical voting answers which increases Labour share and decreases LibDem share but increases the chances of more Labour AND LibDem seats.
Why has May not responded to Corbyn. Is she indisposed, ill? She seems to ration her photo opps.
She's at the G7.
She can't take time out 5 or 10 minutes to make a statement? I have little confidence in her if she cannot deal with one issue leave alone 27 other countries and various sub national parliaments when negotiating Brexit.
For anyone with children/Grandchildren Schools face years of funding cuts if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone who may need HealthCare the NHS is in for even tougher times if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone who is Just about Managing prepare for more and more austerity if Tories win election, say IFS
For anyone with a house ...................
For anyone with money prepare for the country to go bankrupt under Corbyn the IFS also effectively said. The Tories will increase the NHS budget
You think the country will go bankrupt? The IFS think there is a £9bn black hole in Labs manifesto dont they, chicken feed.
Which positive policies are attracting you to the Tories?
Labour would worsen the deficit and their higher taxes would slow growth and lead to a brain drain, Corbyn would weaken border controls and immigration policy and go soft on ISIS
BOOM time is almost here !!!! Infrastructure spending, School repaired, Council houses to be built and MONEY is CHEAP. Cheapest in 300 years.
Money is only cheap because we've been reducing the deficit through austerity. For nations woth out of control deficits they aren't trying to control money is EXPENSIVE.
The deeper I dig into the IFS stuff, the worse it looks for the tories.
How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?
The social care U-turn has f*cked this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?
What were they thinking?
Mrs May has promised a Brexit that will improve the living standards of millions of ordinary Britons. She will be judged on her delivery of that.
No she is delivering the Brexit most Leavers want ie which puts immigration and sovereignty first
Why has May not responded to Corbyn. Is she indisposed, ill? She seems to ration her photo opps.
She's at the G7.
She can't take time out 5 or 10 minutes to make a statement? I have little confidence in her if she cannot deal with one issue leave alone 27 other countries and various sub national parliaments when negotiating Brexit.
She might of course wait until later today so its fresh for the Andrew Neil interview/10 o' clock news. I'm pretty sure she's contactable and up to speed.
We are finding out during this election campaign that while Brexit means Brexit, Brexit also means Brexit, which seems to have come as a surprise to some.
Comments
Funnily enough, that I disagree with his argument that there is a strong linkage between our foreign attacks and terrorist activity on our soil, actually strengthens his main point that more military action abroad will not lead to a safer environment here.
I'm reminded of the comedian Dave Allen's experience of his first day at proper school aged five. He was met by a terrifying Mother Superior who bellowed at him "Now are you going to be a good little boy?" Over her shoulder on a wall he could see an effigy of a bloke nailed to two planks of wood and he thought "You're ****ing right I'm going to be a good little boy."
That's Mrs May's cabinet, that is.
Sounds like bookies are reacting to weight of money from the Corbynistas, which means there's probably some value on the other side. Both the indicated bets are arb-able on the exchange.
The international comparison charts on pages 6 & 10 are interesting.
Cornynite economics really isn't very radical at all.
I'll be rich
But no, it appears May is a hard left Labour plant who has been a sleeper for 30 years.
A lot of Jezza's policies lack detail but at least people think they understand them. Public control of the railways. Yeah, that sounds good. I don't like the train companies, they charge me too much to get back to see my folks on a Friday night. They always blame someone else when they cock up. Yeah, okay, public control of the railways. Like it.
If the British public reject the "Brexit means Brexit" candidate at the ballot box, using Brexiteer logic "the will of the people" is obviously that we should not Brexit...
ROFLtime
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-40057165
The pb Tories calling for one more round of Corbyn-bashing haven't.
As a very critical supporter of Corbyn less because of the man himself (though I think he is having a decent campaign) but because I want the electorate to have a genuine choice of a decent centre-left party that has rediscovered its soul, I'll be very happy if May basically stands still though.
Even if she gets a 50 odd majority, the headbangers will be restless
May has been invisible (campaign-wise) and the policies have had zero cut-througj other than the "Dementia Tax".
The Tory campaign has been terrible and I bet they now wish they'd never called the election.
Tories will still win comfortably BTW
There is no way from the national VI polls to tell the difference between a) a UNS towards Labour away from the LibDems, UKIP and Greens and b) a swing towards whichever candidate in each seat stands the best chance of beating the Tory
She may not have (m?)any friends, if she's a cold control freak.
Anyway he's not infallible. Goldsmith still lost despite having Crosby on board.
Though his expenses record would make Yvette blush.
How is slashing £11bn off working age benefits supposed to win the JAM vote?
The social care U-turn has screwed this up for the blues. You can just about get away with slashing benefits for *everyone* - but increasing state spending on social care to protect inheritances while workers get fed a diet of unrelenting austerity?
What were they thinking?
The Tories don't even have a positive message on how to deal with terrorism. As for Brexit, it was a long-term split in the right, including in the Tory party, that caused Brexit, and the main right-wing party hasn't got a clue what to do next. "Red White and Blue Brexit" is about as contentful as "Up Yer Arse Brexit", and about as contemptuous towards the population.
Labour's positive message is there. But they also need to use the weapon of negativity more. Let's hope they can do it in an effective way.
https://twitter.com/MikeGapes/status/868019799460380672
- Looked at the expected turnout - they have over 75% (!)
- Gone through the raw churn (including those to D/K, WNV); those who voted last time should overwhelmingly dominate the actual turnout on June 8th.
- Followed the old ICM process of returning 50% of D/K to whoever they voted for in 2015.
- Added in the 18-19 year-olds as 2/7ths of the 18-24 bracket as genuine voters who won't have voted last time.
This produces (from exactly the same respondents):
Con 45%
Lab 35%
LD 10%
UKIP 4%
Turnout 66.4%
This is not to say "these are the 'real' figures"; it just underlines how much the assumptions and turnout adjustments can affect the numbers.
(I still have very real discomfort with the sampling response levels and the difficulty that all pollsters keep having at getting a decent mixed sample without having to resort to constant weighting up or down of the same brackets every time)
It implies that about 6% of Conservative respondents, 20% of Labour respondents, and 10% of Lib Dem respondents are from the "Did Not Vote Last Time" brigade. Which is one that almost always lives up to the name (last June was the only time I can think of in my lifetime that they didn't live up to the name).
They may turn out after all in a fortnight, but I don't rate that as a high probability.
I will be out of the office in Sicily starting today returning next week. During this time I will have no access to emails as MI6 confiscate my phone so that I can ignore SMS messages from Donald. If you need immediate assistance during my absence, please contact Mr N. Timothy on Monday, at bignick@no10.gov.uk.
Otherwise I will respond to your emails as soon as possible upon my return.
Warm Regards,
Theresa
Also included a 'How will you vote in Hertsmere?' question.
I can't understand why.
I think it is forcing out the tactical voting answers which increases Labour share and decreases LibDem share but increases the chances of more Labour AND LibDem seats.