1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
And Leeds NW is against Labour, and the LDs did very well in council elections there last year. So, while it's a toss up, I wouldn't put it as a probable.
I wouldn't rule a Conservative gain in Leeds NW - of the four wards in the constituency Adel is a Conservatives stronghold and Otley has been won by them many times before (and demographically should be favourable to May). Headingly is hopeless for the Conservatives but how many students will actually vote next month and Weetwood ward should also provide more Conservative votes if worked.
With the likes of Elmet, Selby, Harrogate and Pudsey safe for the Conservatives at this election they're able to challenge in Leeds NW and/or Leeds NE and I'd say that Leeds NW is the more likely gain.
Agreed, could be a fascinating three way marginal. Hanretty has it as 65% Remain, so I suspect that the LDs hold on. But it's by no means a certainty.
1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
And Leeds NW is against Labour, and the LDs did very well in council elections there last year. So, while it's a toss up, I wouldn't put it as a probable.
I wouldn't rule a Conservative gain in Leeds NW - of the four wards in the constituency Adel is a Conservatives stronghold and Otley has been won by them many times before (and demographically should be favourable to May). Headingly is hopeless for the Conservatives but how many students will actually vote next month and Weetwood ward should also provide more Conservative votes if worked.
With the likes of Elmet, Selby, Harrogate and Pudsey safe for the Conservatives at this election they're able to challenge in Leeds NW and/or Leeds NE and I'd say that Leeds NW is the more likely gain.
To be honest, I would rule it out. The wrong demographics for the Tories.
The northern half of Leeds NW certainly doesn't have the wrong demographics for the Conservatives.
There's a lot more to the constituency than Headingly (which will have the lowest turnout in any case).
I'd say there's a much better chance of a Conservative gain in Leeds NW than there is in Leeds NE, Leeds E or Leeds W - all of which have shorter Conservative odds.
You're right about the other seats being more difficult. Not sure why the Tories are so interested in Leeds East, unless to just make a statement that they're campaigning in places they haven't bothered with for many decades.
Surely Tory MP's aren't going to vote to take the cold fuel payment off their own voters while keeping it going for Scotland?
They'll synchronise the withdrawal date in England with the transfer of the power to Scotland.
No chance that the British govt will vote to have one rule for England and another for Scotland.
Even so this is really toxic stuff for the Tories and May now...
Toxic because they are actually admitting to taking stuff away from people?
Yes. The Baby Boomers are addicted to their perks... And to add insult to injury she's allowing Scottish baby boomers to keep all their perks while taking it off her own voters.
I'm more optimistic, based on my conversations with people of my parents ' generation. Many of them know the perks are unjustifiable.
Just been out canvassing in Torbay. The area visited was chosen to see if the manifesto care issue was breaking through on the doorsteps.
For the most part, no. The Tory vote is holding up very well. Care was mentioned on just two doorsteps. One was concerned, but voting Tory regardless. The other was unhappy - might not vote - but likes Theresa May and wants to give her the backing for Brexit, which was the real issue motivating their vote. Suspect they will vote Tory too, in the end.
Might not be representative, but I offer it up for you to peruse the entrails.
The only person who mentioned winter fuel was a lifelong Labour man. And he only mentioned it because he couldn't quite work out why Corbyn was promising to keep it for the toffs!
Your Man In The Bay
(especially given Corbyn's own swinging tax proposals).
The bastard. How dare he? What consenting couples get up to with each other and a fruit bowl and several sets of keys is no business of the nanny state
1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
And Leeds NW is against Labour, and the LDs did very well in council elections there last year. So, while it's a toss up, I wouldn't put it as a probable.
I wouldn't rule a Conservative gain in Leeds NW - of the four wards in the constituency Adel is a Conservatives stronghold and Otley has been won by them many times before (and demographically should be favourable to May). Headingly is hopeless for the Conservatives but how many students will actually vote next month and Weetwood ward should also provide more Conservative votes if worked.
With the likes of Elmet, Selby, Harrogate and Pudsey safe for the Conservatives at this election they're able to challenge in Leeds NW and/or Leeds NE and I'd say that Leeds NW is the more likely gain.
To be honest, I would rule it out. The wrong demographics for the Tories.
The northern half of Leeds NW certainly doesn't have the wrong demographics for the Conservatives.
There's a lot more to the constituency than Headingly (which will have the lowest turnout in any case).
I'd say there's a much better chance of a Conservative gain in Leeds NW than there is in Leeds NE, Leeds E or Leeds W - all of which have shorter Conservative odds.
Am I right in thinking the Jewish community of Leeds would generally fall under Leeds NE ?
1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
And Leeds NW is against Labour, and the LDs did very well in council elections there last year. So, while it's a toss up, I wouldn't put it as a probable.
I wouldn't rule a Conservative gain in Leeds NW - of the four wards in the constituency Adel is a Conservatives stronghold and Otley has been won by them many times before (and demographically should be favourable to May). Headingly is hopeless for the Conservatives but how many students will actually vote next month and Weetwood ward should also provide more Conservative votes if worked.
With the likes of Elmet, Selby, Harrogate and Pudsey safe for the Conservatives at this election they're able to challenge in Leeds NW and/or Leeds NE and I'd say that Leeds NW is the more likely gain.
To be honest, I would rule it out. The wrong demographics for the Tories.
The northern half of Leeds NW certainly doesn't have the wrong demographics for the Conservatives.
There's a lot more to the constituency than Headingly (which will have the lowest turnout in any case).
I'd say there's a much better chance of a Conservative gain in Leeds NW than there is in Leeds NE, Leeds E or Leeds W - all of which have shorter Conservative odds.
Am I right in thinking the Jewish community of Leeds would generally fall under Leeds NE ?
1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
Well get your money on with an LD sell bet on the spreads.
If you sell at 15 and they get 5 you win ten times your stake
Selling Lib Dems on the spreads seems incredibly dangerous to me. There is a limited amount that can be won if you're right but if for some reason the Lib Dems suddenly surged there is a very long tail of what can be lost.
Selling Lib Dems is probably safer done on a straight over/under bar level I would have thought.
I've done that myself and added yet more to what I bet on a week ago.
Apart from the gearing, which reduces your stake, as a matter of interest what are the other advantages of the spreads; are there any?
Surely Tory MP's aren't going to vote to take the cold fuel payment off their own voters while keeping it going for Scotland?
They'll synchronise the withdrawal date in England with the transfer of the power to Scotland.
No chance that the British govt will vote to have one rule for England and another for Scotland.
Even so this is really toxic stuff for the Tories and May now...
Toxic because they are actually admitting to taking stuff away from people?
Yes. The Baby Boomers are addicted to their perks... And to add insult to injury she's allowing Scottish baby boomers to keep all their perks while taking it off her own voters.
I'm more optimistic, based on my conversations with people of my parents ' generation. Many of them know the perks are unjustifiable.
Just been out canvassing in Torbay. The area visited was chosen to see if the manifesto care issue was breaking through on the doorsteps.
For the most part, no. The Tory vote is holding up very well. Care was mentioned on just two doorsteps. One was concerned, but voting Tory regardless. The other was unhappy - might not vote - but likes Theresa May and wants to give her the backing for Brexit, which was the real issue motivating their vote. Suspect they will vote Tory too, in the end.
Might not be representative, but I offer it up for you to peruse the entrails.
The only person who mentioned winter fuel was a lifelong Labour man. And he only mentioned it because he couldn't quite work out why Corbyn was promising to keep it for the toffs!
Your Man In The Bay
(especially given Corbyn's own swinging tax proposals).
The bastard. How dare he? What consenting couples get up to with each other and a fruit bowl and several sets of keys is no business of the nanny state
The curse of the keyboard. There is a fairly significant 'E' missing from that word!
I am not comparing him to Kenneth Williams in Carry on Henry. After all, Williams portrayed Wolsey Cromwell as calculating and intelligent.
(Edited because it is 15 years since I saw it and had forgotten some of the details.)
LD highest percentages no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
And Leeds NW is against Labour, and the LDs did very well in council elections there last year. So, while it's a toss up, I wouldn't put it as a probable.
I wouldn't rule a Conservative gain in Leeds NW - of the four wards in the constituency Adel is a Conservatives stronghold and Otley has been won by them many times before (and demographically should be favourable to May). Headingly is hopeless for the Conservatives but how many students will actually vote next month and Weetwood ward should also provide more Conservative votes if worked.
With the likes of Elmet, Selby, Harrogate and Pudsey safe for the Conservatives at this election they're able to challenge in Leeds NW and/or Leeds NE and I'd say that Leeds NW is the more likely gain.
To be honest, I would rule it out. The wrong demographics for the Tories.
The northern half of Leeds NW certainly doesn't have the wrong demographics for the Conservatives.
There's a lot more to the constituency than Headingly (which will have the lowest turnout in any case).
I'd say there's a much better chance of a Conservative gain in Leeds NW than there is in Leeds NE, Leeds E or Leeds W - all of which have shorter Conservative odds.
Am I right in thinking the Jewish community of Leeds would generally fall under Leeds NE ?
I've been sitting down and having a think about the data we're seeing from the polls recently - which is quite variable, but on average indicates both Con and Lab several points up since March, and serious third party squeeze in progress. I am still not convinced that Labour isn't doing a little worse, and the Liberal Democrats a little better, than is suggested; however, if we assume that the polls aren't that far out then things become rather interesting. And after all, in 2015 the main problem was with the approximate 3% errors on the Con and Lab votes; the pollsters got the SNP and the also-rans pretty much right.
I've tried to establish what third party squeeze means for the total Con+Lab vote share, what proportion of the electorate realistically remains in play for the parties to capture, and what the likely range of results probably now is.
Starting with 100% of the GB vote, I began by subtracting 5% to account for the SNP, Plaid, Mr Speaker, independents and various tiddler parties. (The likely figure should be closer to about 5.3% assuming an SNP performance in the low 40s, but I'm guesstimating so there's little point in working to that level of accuracy!) That leaves 95%.
Even if the Lib Dems do no better than last time (and they do seem to be faltering quite seriously at the moment) they're unlikely to do *significantly* worse - say, no less than 7%. The Green party, even if quite seriously squeezed by Labour, will probably do no worse than 2%. That leaves 86% for the remaining three.
It's difficult to know quite how far Ukip will fall, but it seems unreasonable to suppose that they are likely to do significantly worse than the Greens, i.e. 2%. 84% remaining.
The Tories ought to do no worse than 44%. Evidence suggests they should hold the vast bulk of their 2015 voters, plus no less than 6% of the electorate from Ukip and a meaningful number of defectors from other parties (especially, though not exclusively, in Scotland.)
Based on the direction of the polls for Labour, the apparent extent of third party squeeze, and the size of Labour VI being recorded even by the likes of ICM, it seems unlikely now that Corbyn will do worse than Michael Foot, so we can cautiously place a floor of about 28% under Labour.
84-44-28 = 12% - that's the proportion of the electorate left in play for all the parties to fight over. It's logical to assume that the bulk of them will go to Labour and the Tories, though at least one out of the Lib Dems, Ukip and the Greens are liable to outperform the minima indicated above, so for the sake of argument let's bump the Lib Dems and Ukip up by 1pt each and cut the available pool down to 10% for the big two. That fraction is bound to split rather than all breaking for one party, so I've assumed that they won't split any more than 70:30, one way or the other.
I'd say that, broadly speaking, the realistic ranges for the parties, based purely on a crude estimate reliant on headline VI, are therefore between Lab 31 - Con 51 and Lab 35 - Con 47. I've Baxterised both of these extremes (incorporating a separate Scotland adjustment, just plugging in the most recent YouGov results but with the Green vote transferred to the SNP,) and arrived at the following UNS projections:
Scenario 1 (Lab 31%, Con 51%):
Con 406 Lab 170 Lib Dem 5 SNP 47 PC 3 Speaker 1
Con majority 162
Scenario 2 (Lab 35%, Con 47%):
Con 363 Lab 213 Lib Dem 5 SNP 47 PC 3 Speaker 1
Con majority 76
A Conservative majority halfway between these two extremes would be 119 seats, which is satisfyingly close to my first forecast of 124 (although I promise I made my assumptions and then ran the sums to get to my figures, rather than working backwards from the result that I wanted!)
I wouldn't rule a Conservative gain in Leeds NW - of the four wards in the constituency Adel is a Conservatives stronghold and Otley has been won by them many times before (and demographically should be favourable to May). Headingly is hopeless for the Conservatives but how many students will actually vote next month and Weetwood ward should also provide more Conservative votes if worked.
With the likes of Elmet, Selby, Harrogate and Pudsey safe for the Conservatives at this election they're able to challenge in Leeds NW and/or Leeds NE and I'd say that Leeds NW is the more likely gain.
To be honest, I would rule it out. The wrong demographics for the Tories.
The northern half of Leeds NW certainly doesn't have the wrong demographics for the Conservatives.
There's a lot more to the constituency than Headingly (which will have the lowest turnout in any case).
I'd say there's a much better chance of a Conservative gain in Leeds NW than there is in Leeds NE, Leeds E or Leeds W - all of which have shorter Conservative odds.
I'd say that, broadly speaking, the realistic ranges for the parties, based purely on a crude estimate reliant on headline VI, are therefore between Lab 31 - Con 51 and Lab 35 - Con 47. I've Baxterised both of these extremes (incorporating a separate Scotland adjustment, just plugging in the most recent YouGov results but with the Green vote transferred to the SNP,) and arrived at the following UNS projections:
Scenario 1 (Lab 31%, Con 51%):
Con 406 Lab 170 Lib Dem 5 SNP 47 PC 3 Speaker 1
Con majority 162
Scenario 2 (Lab 35%, Con 47%):
Con 363 Lab 213 Lib Dem 5 SNP 47 PC 3 Speaker 1
Con majority 76
A Conservative majority halfway between these two extremes would be 119 seats, which is satisfyingly close to my first forecast of 124 (although I promise I made my assumptions and then ran the sums to get to my figures, rather than working backwards from the result that I wanted!)
You won't be popular round these parts, you and your 5 LibDems, whatever the scenario.....
Completely OT. A producer friend has just moved to Dalian in China. He's just sent me this. I don't know whether anyone's been there but I was expecting something semi-primitive.
6.5 million people and nobody will have heard of it. A friend comes from there. It's one of the better parts of China.
What is amazing about Roger's Dalian video is how many people are as ignorant as him. And I don't mean that pejoratively - I mean educated, clever people who just don't realize how advanced Asia is, and, in particular, China.
There are probably 30-50 cities like Dalian, in China, or there soon will be.
It is going to dominate the world and surpass America very soon, if it hasn't already. I may have opined thusly, before.
Until China is actually prepared to put boots on the ground and launch military operations outside South East Asia and the Far East it will never truly dominate the world in the way the US has for the last 50-100 years, in both foreign and economic policy
Seat Loss LD 'very likely', SNP seat loss 'probable'. Greens only as seat loss 'possible', but I think that's a change - predicting a narrow Lab win.
Still putting Bristol West as a possible LD gain, which surprises me, as I rarely see it elsewhere on the list of potentials like Cambridge, Bemondsey or Bath for instance. I'm pessimistic about their changes of holding some seats, but I think they'll be closer in a few than this model suggests, which is not close at all.
I just don't see how the Tories lose Dumfriesshire. Surely not?
Would be surprised to see Lucas lose in Brighton.
Me too, but I'd like it. Too many give her an easy ride because it's 'nice' to have a Green. I want as many parties as possible in parliament, but it's a tough world out there.
To be fair Lucas seems to me like a pretty diligent, hardworking and thoughtful MP. I think she's been good for Brighton (though I'm aware the Green led council has been a bit of a disaster). The Green party is very much student politics and not my thing, but I would probably vote for her in that seat.
1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
And Leeds NW is against Labour, and the LDs did very well in council elections there last year. So, while it's a toss up, I wouldn't put it as a probable.
I wouldn't rule a Conservative gain in Leeds NW - of the four wards in the constituency Adel is a Conservatives stronghold and Otley has been won by them many times before (and demographically should be favourable to May). Headingly is hopeless for the Conservatives but how many students will actually vote next month and Weetwood ward should also provide more Conservative votes if worked.
With the likes of Elmet, Selby, Harrogate and Pudsey safe for the Conservatives at this election they're able to challenge in Leeds NW and/or Leeds NE and I'd say that Leeds NW is the more likely gain.
Agreed, could be a fascinating three way marginal. Hanretty has it as 65% Remain, so I suspect that the LDs hold on. But it's by no means a certainty.
65% Remainers mean 35% Leavers - now who might they vote for ?
There is no UKIP candidate and the Conservative performed very well when he stood in Leeds Central in 2010.
If anyone gets 40% in Leeds NW they'll win but it might well be won on quite a bit less.
1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
And Leeds NW is against Labour, and the LDs did very well in council elections there last year. So, while it's a toss up, I wouldn't put it as a probable.
I wouldn't rule a Conservative gain in Leeds NW - of the four wards in the constituency Adel is a Conservatives stronghold and Otley has been won by them many times before (and demographically should be favourable to May). Headingly is hopeless for the Conservatives but how many students will actually vote next month and Weetwood ward should also provide more Conservative votes if worked.
With the likes of Elmet, Selby, Harrogate and Pudsey safe for the Conservatives at this election they're able to challenge in Leeds NW and/or Leeds NE and I'd say that Leeds NW is the more likely gain.
To be honest, I would rule it out. The wrong demographics for the Tories.
The northern half of Leeds NW certainly doesn't have the wrong demographics for the Conservatives.
There's a lot more to the constituency than Headingly (which will have the lowest turnout in any case).
I'd say there's a much better chance of a Conservative gain in Leeds NW than there is in Leeds NE, Leeds E or Leeds W - all of which have shorter Conservative odds.
You're right about the other seats being more difficult. Not sure why the Tories are so interested in Leeds East, unless to just make a statement that they're campaigning in places they haven't bothered with for many decades.
After the last election I would say that the Tories campaign where they have reason to hope. Remember what they did to the LDs in the SW.
I suspect the white house is all of those things, and more.
I've stayed in a presidential suite at the King David (as a Times travel journo, not a president of America). Not sure if it was that precise suite, but it was pretty amazing.
Awesome views of the Old City.
What is Jerusalem (and Israel in general) like? Did you ever have security concerns?
As a few of my family members (now passed unfortunately) have fought for the IDF, I should really make a point to visit.
With all due respect to the many historians on PB, this is ancient history for many voters, and somehow people do tend to think that what happened even a decade ago is somehow irrelevant to today (unless, of course it's something like Mrs Thatcher or, now, Mr Blair).
@Big_G_NorthWales - will be interested to see some proper polling on the matter. Not sure how much faith I have in self-selecting polls such as these.
I'm rather surprised there hasn't been an instant YouGov on reactions to these social care policies. Maybe, just maybe, the rest of Britain isn't quite as alarmed and hysterical as some of the wanky, wet-the-bed bipolar types on PB.
I think we might see polling on that in the YouGov poll in The Sunday Times.
Interesting poll of 4,800 Express readers on WInter Fuel Allowance
49% agree with TM 29% agree subject to the threshold
22% agree with Corbyn
I know it is the express but those are much where I think the figures are (and I do not read the express)
But what about Diana?
From a distance here in Vancouver it seems that Corbyn is backing the wealthy pensioners but is as clueless as ever. He thought WFA was taxable and now wants the state to pay for dementia sufferers no matter how long and at what individual cost with no contrinbution from individuals or their families.
He has nothing in his manifesto about the absolute magnitude of the cost of social care and looking at all the forests here in BC there would not be enough if they all were magic money trees
Reading the papers on line they are all supportive of TM and they all welcomed the end of Levenson and the compulsion to join the press regulator so much admired by Hugh Grant
Jezza and Diane on a motorbike in the DDR, there must be some files somewhere. Not many Brits had carefree summer holidays over there in the 70s and 80s.
@Big_G_NorthWales - will be interested to see some proper polling on the matter. Not sure how much faith I have in self-selecting polls such as these.
I'm rather surprised there hasn't been an instant YouGov on reactions to these social care policies. Maybe, just maybe, the rest of Britain isn't quite as alarmed and hysterical as some of the wanky, wet-the-bed bipolar types on PB.
I think we might see polling on that in the YouGov poll in The Sunday Times.
Completely OT. A producer friend has just moved to Dalian in China. He's just sent me this. I don't know whether anyone's been there but I was expecting something semi-primitive.
6.5 million people and nobody will have heard of it. A friend comes from there. It's one of the better parts of China.
What is amazing about Roger's Dalian video is how many people are as ignorant as him. And I don't mean that pejoratively - I mean educated, clever people who just don't realize how advanced Asia is, and, in particular, China.
There are probably 30-50 cities like Dalian, in China, or there soon will be.
It is going to dominate the world and surpass America very soon, if it hasn't already. I may have opined thusly, before.
Until China is actually prepared to put boots on the ground and launch military operations outside South East Asia and the Far East it will never truly dominate the world in the way the US has for the last 50-100 years, in both foreign and economic policy
That is not the real issue - China is well on its way to develop a blue water navy and power projection capability.
What is at issue is whether economically China can become a leader rather than just a catcher-upper in economic and scientific issues. And within science, can it do the great quantum leap science, or just the rote filling in the gaps stuff.
I am far less convinced that China is ready to become a leader in any sense other than brute numbers.
I'm rather surprised there hasn't been an instant YouGov on reactions to these social care policies. Maybe, just maybe, the rest of Britain isn't quite as alarmed and hysterical as some of the wanky, wet-the-bed bipolar types on PB.
I'm rather surprised there hasn't been an instant YouGov on reactions to these social care policies. Maybe, just maybe, the rest of Britain isn't quite as alarmed and hysterical as some of the wanky, wet-the-bed bipolar types on PB.
I've just ordered Google Home for my bedroom, and Amazon Echo for my living room. I'm gonna do a one man Which consumer test.
Anyone got an idea who will win?
Alexa. Hands down. Google home is functional but has no personality, it's literally talking to a robot, Alexa is much more natural. The next stage is natural conversations which I believe Amazon are working on.
I've just ordered Google Home for my bedroom, and Amazon Echo for my living room. I'm gonna do a one man Which consumer test.
Anyone got an idea who will win?
Alexa. Hands down. Google home is functional but has no personality, it's literally talking to a robot, Alexa is much more natural. The next stage is natural conversations which I believe Amazon are working on.
are they they folks that have Majel Barrett's voice digitized, so we can all have the star trek computer in our home?
I was musing on Glasgow constituencies. Labour are the Unionist party in greatest strength and did respectably in the council elections. It was the site of enormous SNP swings in 2015, often circa 40%. OK, it was pro Sindy but it wouldn't take a big swing away to the Unionist opposition for Labour to gain a seat or two. It is a place where Corbynism has a bit of appeal.
I would have thought South and SouthWest would be the most Unionist constituencies, and 14/1and 20/1 respectively for Labour. Ibrox is in SW.
Seat Loss LD 'very likely', SNP seat loss 'probable'. Greens only as seat loss 'possible', but I think that's a change - predicting a narrow Lab win.
Still putting Bristol West as a possible LD gain, which surprises me, as I rarely see it elsewhere on the list of potentials like Cambridge, Bemondsey or Bath for instance. I'm pessimistic about their changes of holding some seats, but I think they'll be closer in a few than this model suggests, which is not close at all.
I just don't see how the Tories lose Dumfriesshire. Surely not?
Would be surprised to see Lucas lose in Brighton.
Me too, but I'd like it. Too many give her an easy ride because it's 'nice' to have a Green. I want as many parties as possible in parliament, but it's a tough world out there.
To be fair Lucas seems to me like a pretty diligent, hardworking and thoughtful MP. I think she's been good for Brighton (though I'm aware the Green led council has been a bit of a disaster). The Green party is very much student politics and not my thing, but I would probably vote for her in that seat.
I'm sure she is personally nice, and for all I know she is hard working and earns her place - I don't like the idea of others standing aside for a quite radical party on the basis that they like her personally and so give up on what they presumably think are superior policies from other parties.
I'm rather surprised there hasn't been an instant YouGov on reactions to these social care policies. Maybe, just maybe, the rest of Britain isn't quite as alarmed and hysterical as some of the wanky, wet-the-bed bipolar types on PB.
That would be nice, as the Labour manifesto is all about nice giveaways, and whether the Tory one is actually better, it would be nice if the public as a whole do not immediately knock off a few percent because it dares to ask people to give up some freebies and makes some tough choices. If it unravels over the course of a week, say, that is much more reasonable.
I suspect Tories will be down a little, but could just be regular movement, given Labour are up anyway.
@Big_G_NorthWales - will be interested to see some proper polling on the matter. Not sure how much faith I have in self-selecting polls such as these.
I'm rather surprised there hasn't been an instant YouGov on reactions to these social care policies. Maybe, just maybe, the rest of Britain isn't quite as alarmed and hysterical as some of the wanky, wet-the-bed bipolar types on PB.
Wikipedia also says at various times that Jeremy Corbyn is sane, that Richard Carrier is an historian, and that Holocaust Denial is not a conspiracy theory. It can say anything any silly sod with a keyboard and an agenda wants it to. I would rather have an official source.
I think also the reason for the distinction you note above is because the 1937 covered the whole of Ireland, including the six counties where the powers of the Free State had been 'suspended' in 1922, whereas the 1948 act applied to the state where the powers actually existed de facto and called that 'the Republic of Ireland.'
That doesn't change the fact that the official name is "Ireland", and they themselves use the name in all manner of things. To say calling it such is worse than "Southern Ireland" is ridiculous.
The point is it is not Ireland. It is the majority of Ireland. It's not the people in the Republic that might cause issues with!
My wife, who is Irish, calls it Ireland and puts that on her Irish address. If she is being formal, she calls it the Republic of Ireland, not the Irish Republic.
People ask her where she is from. She says the West of Ireland. They ask is that in Southern Ireland? She says Duh. No it is in the West of Ireland.
Completely OT. A producer friend has just moved to Dalian in China. He's just sent me this. I don't know whether anyone's been there but I was expecting something semi-primitive.
6.5 million people and nobody will have heard of it. A friend comes from there. It's one of the better parts of China.
What is amazing about Roger's Dalian video is how many people are as ignorant as him. And I don't mean that pejoratively - I mean educated, clever people who just don't realize how advanced Asia is, and, in particular, China.
There are probably 30-50 cities like Dalian, in China, or there soon will be.
It is going to dominate the world and surpass America very soon, if it hasn't already. I may have opined thusly, before.
Until China is actually prepared to put boots on the ground and launch military operations outside South East Asia and the Far East it will never truly dominate the world in the way the US has for the last 50-100 years, in both foreign and economic policy
That is not the real issue - China is well on its way to develop a blue water navy and power projection capability.
What is at issue is whether economically China can become a leader rather than just a catcher-upper in economic and scientific issues. And within science, can it do the great quantum leap science, or just the rote filling in the gaps stuff.
I am far less convinced that China is ready to become a leader in any sense other than brute numbers.
China will be Japan times a hundred, with added Singapore. Japan is a great innovator; China will do better.
Europe and America will have to huddle closer together to compete, I suspect.
I'm far less convinced that China will ever be a great innovator. SO can bang on about patents filed as much as he wants but so far it's just copying Japanese and American solutions via industrial espionage. It could change but real innovation usually comes from necessity, in Japan innovative technological solutions have been used to make the land liveable. In America to cut costs/save money for investors by increasing productivity. On reason why our innovation has been so lacking is that we have chosen the path of least resistance and just imported cheap, low quality labour instead of investing in technology to increase productivity per worker. China's urbanisation rate is our policy multiplied by 1000.
I've just ordered Google Home for my bedroom, and Amazon Echo for my living room. I'm gonna do a one man Which consumer test.
Anyone got an idea who will win?
Alexa is amazing
Isn't there a movie about a guy who falls in love with the voice of his electronic home assistant? (Given the wealth of literature on the subject, we all know humans are very keen on teaching machine intelligence to love)
I've just ordered Google Home for my bedroom, and Amazon Echo for my living room. I'm gonna do a one man Which consumer test.
Anyone got an idea who will win?
Alexa is amazing
Isn't there a movie about a guy who falls in love with the voice of his electronic home assistant? (Given the wealth of literature on the subject, we all know humans are very keen on teaching machine intelligence to love)
I was musing on Glasgow constituencies. Labour are the Unionist party in greatest strength and did respectably in the council elections. It was the site of enormous SNP swings in 2015, often circa 40%. OK, it was pro Sindy but it wouldn't take a big swing away to the Unionist opposition for Labour to gain a seat or two. It is a place where Corbynism has a bit of appeal.
I would have thought South and SouthWest would be the most Unionist constituencies, and 14/1and 20/1 respectively for Labour. Ibrox is in SW.
Worth a small punt on an SNP falling tide?
Also worth saying that yesterday's YouGov had Corbyn only 2% behind May for "best PM" in the Scotland subsample.
Isn't there a movie about a guy who falls in love with the voice of his electronic home assistant? (Given the wealth of literature on the subject, we all know humans are very keen on teaching machine intelligence to love)
Kudos if he founded and sold a computer games business in the 1980s, as it would appear!
Computer games in those days mostly consisted of typing in pages and pages of Basic code from a magazine and then spending hours trying to debug it to find the inevitable typos.
Completely OT. A producer friend has just moved to Dalian in China. He's just sent me this. I don't know whether anyone's been there but I was expecting something semi-primitive.
6.5 million people and nobody will have heard of it. A friend comes from there. It's one of the better parts of China.
What is amazing about Roger's Dalian video is how many people are as ignorant as him. And I don't mean that pejoratively - I mean educated, clever people who just don't realize how advanced Asia is, and, in particular, China.
There are probably 30-50 cities like Dalian, in China, or there soon will be.
It is going to dominate the world and surpass America very soon, if it hasn't already. I may have opined thusly, before.
Until China is actually prepared to put boots on the ground and launch military operations outside South East Asia and the Far East it will never truly dominate the world in the way the US has for the last 50-100 years, in both foreign and economic policy
That is not the real issue - China is well on its way to develop a blue water navy and power projection capability.
What is at issue is whether economically China can become a leader rather than just a catcher-upper in economic and scientific issues. And within science, can it do the great quantum leap science, or just the rote filling in the gaps stuff.
I am far less convinced that China is ready to become a leader in any sense other than brute numbers.
It already has the largest military in the world, it clearly has the capacity but when has it bothered to use it? Not since the Korean War and in a very limited capacity the Vietnam War as far as I can see. Russia projects itself far more on the world stage in terms of military intervention than China does.
I agree that China will certainly be the largest economy, not that surprising given it is the world's largest population but it needs innovation and original ideas too
Kudos if he founded and sold a computer games business in the 1980s, as it would appear!
Computer games in those days mostly consisted of typing in pages and pages of Basic code from a magazine and then spending hours trying to debug it to find the inevitable typos.
Ah, the days before hooking it up to your tape player and waiting 10-20 mins for it to load.
Isn't there a movie about a guy who falls in love with the voice of his electronic home assistant? (Given the wealth of literature on the subject, we all know humans are very keen on teaching machine intelligence to love)
Her IIRC
Good film
Her.....It was terrible....I'd rather spend two hours with Theresa May and her hubbie than watch that movie again....
I was musing on Glasgow constituencies. Labour are the Unionist party in greatest strength and did respectably in the council elections. It was the site of enormous SNP swings in 2015, often circa 40%. OK, it was pro Sindy but it wouldn't take a big swing away to the Unionist opposition for Labour to gain a seat or two. It is a place where Corbynism has a bit of appeal.
I would have thought South and SouthWest would be the most Unionist constituencies, and 14/1and 20/1 respectively for Labour. Ibrox is in SW.
Worth a small punt on an SNP falling tide?
With votes of 54% and 57% respectively that is some falling tide you'd need.
What might get you closer is differential turnout, Glasgow SW turnout was up 7% on 2010 but to be honest I see no realistic path towards the SNP losing those seats.
Though ironically this was the hotel bombed by Jewish terrorists in 1948...
Cough..freedom fighters.
...whose reward was having their families' homes blown up with explosives planted by British soldiers by way of reprisal. A habit that sadly seems to have remained a local custom.
I suspect the white house is all of those things, and more.
I've stayed in a presidential suite at the King David (as a Times travel journo, not a president of America). Not sure if it was that precise suite, but it was pretty amazing.
Awesome views of the Old City.
What is Jerusalem (and Israel in general) like? Did you ever have security concerns?
As a few of my family members (now passed unfortunately) have fought for the IDF, I should really make a point to visit.
Jerusalem is amazing, and also disconcerting. I stayed with Palestinian friends in East Jerusalem and wandered about quite safely on foot for a few weeks with Fox jr. There are armed soldiers about, but mostly bored standing guard.
To stand on the Mount of Olives, to walk through Gethsemane, to see the Wall of Solomon's temple is a bit unreal. It is also quite beautiful and all the peoples helpful. The only people that gave me a hard time were airport security in Tel Aviv before I flew home with El Al. They didn't approve of where I had stayed.
I was musing on Glasgow constituencies. Labour are the Unionist party in greatest strength and did respectably in the council elections. It was the site of enormous SNP swings in 2015, often circa 40%. OK, it was pro Sindy but it wouldn't take a big swing away to the Unionist opposition for Labour to gain a seat or two. It is a place where Corbynism has a bit of appeal.
I would have thought South and SouthWest would be the most Unionist constituencies, and 14/1and 20/1 respectively for Labour. Ibrox is in SW.
Worth a small punt on an SNP falling tide?
Also worth saying that yesterday's YouGov had Corbyn only 2% behind May for "best PM" in the Scotland subsample.
Corbyn does quite well amongst SNP voters on best PM
Jezza and Diane on a motorbike in the DDR, there must be some files somewhere. Not many Brits had carefree summer holidays over there in the 70s and 80s.
Frau Merkel presumably has access to the Stasi files, and Putin can probably lay his hands on some as well
Completely OT. A producer friend has just moved to Dalian in China. He's just sent me this. I don't know whether anyone's been there but I was expecting something semi-primitive.
6.5 million people and nobody will have heard of it. A friend comes from there. It's one of the better parts of China.
What is amazing about Roger's Dalian video is how many people are as ignorant as him. And I don't mean that pejoratively - I mean educated, clever people who just don't realize how advanced Asia is, and, in particular, China.
There are probably 30-50 cities like Dalian, in China, or there soon will be.
It is going to dominate the world and surpass America very soon, if it hasn't already. I may have opined thusly, before.
Until China is actually prepared to put boots on the ground and launch military operations outside South East Asia and the Far East it will never truly dominate the world in the way the US has for the last 50-100 years, in both foreign and economic policy
That is not the real issue - China is well on its way to develop a blue water navy and power projection capability.
What is at issue is whether economically China can become a leader rather than just a catcher-upper in economic and scientific issues. And within science, can it do the great quantum leap science, or just the rote filling in the gaps stuff.
I am far less convinced that China is ready to become a leader in any sense other than brute numbers.
It already has the largest military in the world, it clearly has the capacity but when has it bothered to use it? Not since the Korean War as far as I can see. Russia projects itself far more on the world stage in terms of military intervention than China does.
I agree that China will certainly be the largest economy, not that surprising given it is the world's largest population but it needs innovation and original ideas too
Go to Africa. See the container ports. Look at the provenance, and the destination, on the containers.
China is already significantly more powerful than America, in terms of trade.
I am not disputing China leads the world in trade but in terms of interventions in foreign conflicts, civil wars, peace negotiations, the fight against terrorism it is really nowhere beyond its borders
I was just struck by a thought during my earlier reply...could you imagine the awfulness of having to spend some significant time with Theresa? What could she talk about? Harry Potter or Strong and Stable? Or shoes?
I was just struck by a thought during my earlier reply...could you imagine the awfulness of having to spend some significant time with Theresa? What could she talk about? Harry Potter or Strong and Stable? Or shoes?
Peoples' public persona may not reflect how good company they might be in a social setting. She and Philip seemed pretty boring, but who knows?
Completely OT. A producer friend has just moved to Dalian in China. He's just sent me this. I don't know whether anyone's been there but I was expecting something semi-primitive.
6.5 million people and nobody will have heard of it. A friend comes from there. It's one of the better parts of China.
What is amazing about Roger's Dalian video is how many people are as ignorant as him. And I don't mean that pejoratively - I mean educated, clever people who just don't realize how advanced Asia is, and, in particular, China.
There are probably 30-50 cities like Dalian, in China, or there soon will be.
It is going to dominate the world and surpass America very soon, if it hasn't already. I may have opined thusly, before.
Until China is actually prepared to put boots on the ground and launch military operations outside South East Asia and the Far East it will never truly dominate the world in the way the US has for the last 50-100 years, in both foreign and economic policy
That is not the real issue - China is well on its way to develop a blue water navy and power projection capability.
What is at issue is whether economically China can become a leader rather than just a catcher-upper in economic and scientific issues. And within science, can it do the great quantum leap science, or just the rote filling in the gaps stuff.
I am far less convinced that China is ready to become a leader in any sense other than brute numbers.
It already has the largest military in the world, it clearly has the capacity but when has it bothered to use it? Not since the Korean War and in a very limited capacity the Vietnam War as far as I can see. Russia projects itself far more on the world stage in terms of military intervention than China does.
I agree that China will certainly be the largest economy, not that surprising given it is the world's largest population but it needs innovation and original ideas too
China invaded Tibet in 1960, fought India (successfully) in 1962 in the Himalayas and invaded Vietnam briefly in 1979.
I was just struck by a thought during my earlier reply...could you imagine the awfulness of having to spend some significant time with Theresa? What could she talk about? Harry Potter or Strong and Stable? Or shoes?
I thought she had been described as quite a warm person in private.
I am not disputing China leads the world in trade but in terms of interventions in foreign conflicts, civil wars, peace negotiations, the fight against terrorism it is really nowhere beyond its borders
That's changing. This is a good article on the tensions within China as it begins to play a global political role:
1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
I suspect the white house is all of those things, and more.
I've stayed in a presidential suite at the King David (as a Times travel journo, not a president of America). Not sure if it was that precise suite, but it was pretty amazing.
Awesome views of the Old City.
What is Jerusalem (and Israel in general) like? Did you ever have security concerns?
As a few of my family members (now passed unfortunately) have fought for the IDF, I should really make a point to visit.
Jerusalem is amazing, and also disconcerting. I stayed with Palestinian friends in East Jerusalem and wandered about quite safely on foot for a few weeks with Fox jr. There are armed soldiers about, but mostly bored standing guard.
To stand on the Mount of Olives, to walk through Gethsemane, to see the Wall of Solomon's temple is a bit unreal. It is also quite beautiful and all the peoples helpful. The only people that gave me a hard time were airport security in Tel Aviv before I flew home with El Al. They didn't approve of where I had stayed.
I (and along with about 10 others) did a runner from a restaurant in Jerusalem.....I still fell ashamed......
Sometimes the Brits abroad can be bloody obnoxious, thoughtless and the rest, especially when alcohol is concerned.....
With all due respect to the many historians on PB, this is ancient history for many voters, and somehow people do tend to think that what happened even a decade ago is somehow irrelevant to today (unless, of course it's something like Mrs Thatcher or, now, Mr Blair).
Good evening, everyone.
"With all due respect" (awful phrase), this is just Lynton's little warm up, targeted at triggering many memories of many who do care about what happened.
I'd say that, broadly speaking, the realistic ranges for the parties, based purely on a crude estimate reliant on headline VI, are therefore between Lab 31 - Con 51 and Lab 35 - Con 47. I've Baxterised both of these extremes (incorporating a separate Scotland adjustment, just plugging in the most recent YouGov results but with the Green vote transferred to the SNP,) and arrived at the following UNS projections:
Scenario 1 (Lab 31%, Con 51%):
Con 406 Lab 170 Lib Dem 5 SNP 47 PC 3 Speaker 1
Con majority 162
Scenario 2 (Lab 35%, Con 47%):
Con 363 Lab 213 Lib Dem 5 SNP 47 PC 3 Speaker 1
Con majority 76
A Conservative majority halfway between these two extremes would be 119 seats, which is satisfyingly close to my first forecast of 124 (although I promise I made my assumptions and then ran the sums to get to my figures, rather than working backwards from the result that I wanted!)
Interesting analysis.
My only comment is that I don't think Baxter picks up targeting or special circumstances and that makes the outcome less predictable. For instance Baxter has Richmond Park with a Tory majority of 32,000! Crazy.
I think the LibDems will get about 15 of the following seats (in rank order of probability according to the bookies) which reduces your Tory estimated majority to 64-114. I still think Tory majority of 75-99 is good value on Betfair at 10.
Westmorland and Lonsdale 95% Leeds North West 90% Ceredigion Sheffield, Hallam Orkney and Shetland 80% Cambridge EdinBorough West 70% Twickenham East Dunbartonshire 60% Bermondsey and Old Southwark Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross North East Fife North Norfolk Cardiff Central Kingston and Surbiton 50% Carshalton and Wallington Lewes Richmond Park St Ives Bath Burnley Southport Birmingham, Yardley 40% Eastbourne Hornsey and Wood Green Ross, Skye and Lochaber St Albans Thornbury and Yate Portsmouth South 30% Vauxhall North Devon Cheltenham Brecon and Radnorshire Argyll and Bute Cheadle
Kudos if he founded and sold a computer games business in the 1980s, as it would appear!
Computer games in those days mostly consisted of typing in pages and pages of Basic code from a magazine and then spending hours trying to debug it to find the inevitable typos.
Ah, the days before hooking it up to your tape player and waiting 10-20 mins for it to load.
Those were the days. Saving the work by recording on a tape recorder was the only way to avoid having to type it all in again the next time, as I guess you remember.
Oh for the days when you turned on your PC and all that you saw on the screen was:
Comments
https://twitter.com/SirDavidButler?lang=en
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/leedsnortheast/
Apart from the gearing, which reduces your stake, as a matter of interest what are the other advantages of the spreads; are there any?
I am not comparing him to Kenneth Williams in Carry on Henry. After all, Williams portrayed
WolseyCromwell as calculating and intelligent.(Edited because it is 15 years since I saw it and had forgotten some of the details.)
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/leedsnortheast/
I've tried to establish what third party squeeze means for the total Con+Lab vote share, what proportion of the electorate realistically remains in play for the parties to capture, and what the likely range of results probably now is.
Starting with 100% of the GB vote, I began by subtracting 5% to account for the SNP, Plaid, Mr Speaker, independents and various tiddler parties. (The likely figure should be closer to about 5.3% assuming an SNP performance in the low 40s, but I'm guesstimating so there's little point in working to that level of accuracy!) That leaves 95%.
Even if the Lib Dems do no better than last time (and they do seem to be faltering quite seriously at the moment) they're unlikely to do *significantly* worse - say, no less than 7%. The Green party, even if quite seriously squeezed by Labour, will probably do no worse than 2%. That leaves 86% for the remaining three.
It's difficult to know quite how far Ukip will fall, but it seems unreasonable to suppose that they are likely to do significantly worse than the Greens, i.e. 2%. 84% remaining.
The Tories ought to do no worse than 44%. Evidence suggests they should hold the vast bulk of their 2015 voters, plus no less than 6% of the electorate from Ukip and a meaningful number of defectors from other parties (especially, though not exclusively, in Scotland.)
Based on the direction of the polls for Labour, the apparent extent of third party squeeze, and the size of Labour VI being recorded even by the likes of ICM, it seems unlikely now that Corbyn will do worse than Michael Foot, so we can cautiously place a floor of about 28% under Labour.
84-44-28 = 12% - that's the proportion of the electorate left in play for all the parties to fight over. It's logical to assume that the bulk of them will go to Labour and the Tories, though at least one out of the Lib Dems, Ukip and the Greens are liable to outperform the minima indicated above, so for the sake of argument let's bump the Lib Dems and Ukip up by 1pt each and cut the available pool down to 10% for the big two. That fraction is bound to split rather than all breaking for one party, so I've assumed that they won't split any more than 70:30, one way or the other.
(TBC)
I'd say that, broadly speaking, the realistic ranges for the parties, based purely on a crude estimate reliant on headline VI, are therefore between Lab 31 - Con 51 and Lab 35 - Con 47. I've Baxterised both of these extremes (incorporating a separate Scotland adjustment, just plugging in the most recent YouGov results but with the Green vote transferred to the SNP,) and arrived at the following UNS projections:
Scenario 1 (Lab 31%, Con 51%):
Con 406
Lab 170
Lib Dem 5
SNP 47
PC 3
Speaker 1
Con majority 162
Scenario 2 (Lab 35%, Con 47%):
Con 363
Lab 213
Lib Dem 5
SNP 47
PC 3
Speaker 1
Con majority 76
A Conservative majority halfway between these two extremes would be 119 seats, which is satisfyingly close to my first forecast of 124 (although I promise I made my assumptions and then ran the sums to get to my figures, rather than working backwards from the result that I wanted!)
Leeds NW
LibD 7942
Lab 6593
Con 5537
Grn 1902
UKIP 1586
Leeds NE
Lab 13829
Con 6917
UKIP 1784
LibD 1732
Grn 1603
Leeds W
Lab 10125
Grn 3843
UKIP 3554
Con 1557
LibD 624
Leeds E
Lab 12262
UKIP 3893
Con 3212
LibD 872
Grn 598
Now compare the Betfair odds on a Conservative win:
Leeds NW 8/1
Leeds NE 5/2
Leeds W 5/1
Leeds E 4/1
The value is clearly in Leeds NW - 10/1 with SkyBet.
49% agree with TM
29% agree subject to the threshold
22% agree with Corbyn
I know it is the express but those are much where I think the figures are (and I do not read the express)
There is no UKIP candidate and the Conservative performed very well when he stood in Leeds Central in 2010.
If anyone gets 40% in Leeds NW they'll win but it might well be won on quite a bit less.
https://twitter.com/DailyMail/status/865659850612658176
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/865662931740045313
https://twitter.com/CNN/status/865651535836880897
http://www.eadt.co.uk/news/election-2017-south-suffolk-ukip-hopeful-aims-for-interstellar-travel-1-5026406
As a few of my family members (now passed unfortunately) have fought for the IDF, I should really make a point to visit.
Best. Leaflet. Ever.
Good evening, everyone.
He has nothing in his manifesto about the absolute magnitude of the cost of social care and looking at all the forests here in BC there would not be enough if they all were magic money trees
Reading the papers on line they are all supportive of TM and they all welcomed the end of Levenson and the compulsion to join the press regulator so much admired by Hugh Grant
Harumph...
Just a bit of warning, Alexa is 'fun' with children about.
What is at issue is whether economically China can become a leader rather than just a catcher-upper in economic and scientific issues. And within science, can it do the great quantum leap science, or just the rote filling in the gaps stuff.
I am far less convinced that China is ready to become a leader in any sense other than brute numbers.
I was musing on Glasgow constituencies. Labour are the Unionist party in greatest strength and did respectably in the council elections. It was the site of enormous SNP swings in 2015, often circa 40%. OK, it was pro Sindy but it wouldn't take a big swing away to the Unionist opposition for Labour to gain a seat or two. It is a place where Corbynism has a bit of appeal.
I would have thought South and SouthWest would be the most Unionist constituencies, and 14/1and 20/1 respectively for Labour. Ibrox is in SW.
Worth a small punt on an SNP falling tide?
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/mar/25/police-spied-on-labour-mps-whistleblower
I suspect Tories will be down a little, but could just be regular movement, given Labour are up anyway.
People ask her where she is from. She says the West of Ireland. They ask is that in Southern Ireland? She says Duh. No it is in the West of Ireland.
Good film
Computer games in those days mostly consisted of typing in pages and pages of Basic code from a magazine and then spending hours trying to debug it to find the inevitable typos.
I agree that China will certainly be the largest economy, not that surprising given it is the world's largest population but it needs innovation and original ideas too
What might get you closer is differential turnout, Glasgow SW turnout was up 7% on 2010 but to be honest I see no realistic path towards the SNP losing those seats.
To stand on the Mount of Olives, to walk through Gethsemane, to see the Wall of Solomon's temple is a bit unreal. It is also quite beautiful and all the peoples helpful. The only people that gave me a hard time were airport security in Tel Aviv before I flew home with El Al. They didn't approve of where I had stayed.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0186JAEWK?enableAutoPlay=1&ref=pr_shrturl_1_ods_aucc_hx
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-discovers-the-price-of-global-power-soldiers-returning-in-caskets-1479250248
Sometimes the Brits abroad can be bloody obnoxious, thoughtless and the rest, especially when alcohol is concerned.....
My only comment is that I don't think Baxter picks up targeting or special circumstances and that makes the outcome less predictable. For instance Baxter has Richmond Park with a Tory majority of 32,000! Crazy.
I think the LibDems will get about 15 of the following seats (in rank order of probability according to the bookies) which reduces your Tory estimated majority to 64-114. I still think Tory majority of 75-99 is good value on Betfair at 10.
Westmorland and Lonsdale 95%
Leeds North West 90%
Ceredigion
Sheffield, Hallam
Orkney and Shetland 80%
Cambridge
EdinBorough West 70%
Twickenham
East Dunbartonshire 60%
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
North East Fife
North Norfolk
Cardiff Central
Kingston and Surbiton 50%
Carshalton and Wallington
Lewes
Richmond Park
St Ives
Bath
Burnley
Southport
Birmingham, Yardley 40%
Eastbourne
Hornsey and Wood Green
Ross, Skye and Lochaber
St Albans
Thornbury and Yate
Portsmouth South 30%
Vauxhall
North Devon
Cheltenham
Brecon and Radnorshire
Argyll and Bute
Cheadle
Oh for the days when you turned on your PC and all that you saw on the screen was:
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