Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Download the Rallings and Thrasher Election 2015 book for FREE

123457»

Comments

  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,145
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    It already has - read the comments below.

    And as I said this has the power to aggravate far beyond those people concerned.

    Why are you pretending that people aren't going to be annoyed if they think the government is giving preferential treatment to others ?

    Because virtually nobody in the North and Midlands will lose a penny from the winter fuel allowances, now some southern Tories like you might as a result of the means test but you are hardly going to vote for Corbyn anyway are you and I doubt for Farron either?
    You keep bleating this and its bollox.

    Firstly I'm not a southerner, secondly I'm not a Tory and thirdly I don't get WFA but being in the actual North (unlike you) I might well be reading the situation better.

    You have no idea who might or might not lose their WFA, nor more importantly do the people who receive it.

    And you keep ignoring the imagery of May agreeing to give preferential treatment to Scotland - something which will annoy far beyond those who get WFA.
    You are I assume not lower middle class or working class ie the former UKIP voters May needs and those people will thus not be affected at all by means testing winter fuel allowance so why on earth should they care what happens in Scotland as the policy will not affect them anyway?
    In which case why does not means testing WFA in Scotland attract those same voters if it wont apply to them.

    And you still keep ignoring the imagery of May agreeing to give preferential treatment to Scotland - something which will annoy fay beyond those who get WFA.
    As in Scotland the Tories need to win upper middle class voters who in 2015 voted SNP after voting No in 2014, in England upper middle class voters largely vote Tory anyway
    Yeah, right - all those upper middle class voters in Moray and Banff and Dumfries are going to lead SCON to triumph. And these upper middle class Scots are apparently so much more deserving of WFA than the upper middle class voters of Workington or Hartlepool or Wrexham.

    As I said there's a whole lot of extra pressure on Davidson to produce now.

    And BTW how many Conservatives MPs in England and Wales would you be prepared to lose to gain extra SCON MPs ?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    If treating English and Welsh people as second class citizens on this issue doesn't cost the Conservatives votes (and consequently stops them winning seats they would otherwise have done) why do you think not means testing WFA in Scotland will help SCON gain seats there ?

    Because Scottish voters are spoilt and expect to be treated differently. English voters are used to it.

    So the Scots are going to have WFA for all and the English won't? Throw it on the pile of differences along with prescription charges, NHS parking charges, tuition fees and more - and that is just off the top of my head.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dixiedean said:

    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    As a Labour supporter, (but not a Corbynite), I am relatively sanguine about this election. What has been lost? An extra TWO years of Conservative rule. What has been gained? An abandonment of free markets as the only solution to any and all difficulties. Re-nationalisation introduced as a subject for discussion. Price controls on the table too. No promises of no tax rises. The deficit kicked down the road. The real prospect of Keynesian deficit financing as a govt policy. Legal marijuana openly discussed. Tories wanting to regulate Internet companies. Pensioners no longer immune from cuts. Above all, the possibility of Corbyn going. Sounds like a win for me.

    Assuming he gets a decent vote share or number of seats... why would Corbyn go, having achieved all of the above?
    He may not. He hasn't achieved all of the above. Some of it has been gifted him. But he is 67. Will be 72 in 2022. Would he want to? Still think there will be a majority of 100+. Labour ideas have been adopted by the Tories, and will be subjects for political discussion. You intervene on A why not B? You intervene on A why not more?
    Even giving Corbyn the ability to hang on and stand aside at a time of his own choosing, to a successor of his choosing, is an abject failure.

    It struck me just now, from this evening's thread, that the Conservative manifesto is essentially a future tense version of John Major's awful slogan, "Yes it hurt, yes it worked".

    Yes, it's going to hurt, but yes, it's going to work...

    The thing is, if you have to kick the electorate in the crotch, you don't *tell* them you're about to hit them in the crotch...
    Nevertheless, the Overton Window has moved this campaign. And it has moved leftwards. For an extra 2 years of government. Result for labour whatever the majority.
    Perhaps - but the window moves by every act the government makes in office too not just while campaigning. It is quite possible that five years of a healthy Tory majority should see the Overton Window move further right. Probably more than it would have done in 3 years of a slim majority.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Its most likely to lose more in England and Wales than it gains in Scotland as there are nearly ten times as many MPs in England and Wales.

    So those Conservative candidates who lose by 100 votes will know that their defeat was caused by May's pandering to Davidson's big talking.

    I suppose if SCON now does gain Moray, Banff, Gordon, Perth and half a dozen others they could argue it was justified.

    If.

    Except it is nature to vote more on what affects you than that which affects someone else. The fact that this is not being implemented in Scotland will affect Scottish voters and will enter their thinking. The fact that this is not being implemented in Scotland will not affect English voters and will likely not sway any voters as the only ones to care will be those already political enough to form considerations over other matters anyway.

    It doesn't matter if there are ten times as many MPs in England and Wales if this doesn't swing the voters there.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:



    It already has - read the comments below.

    And as I said this has the power to aggravate far beyond those people concerned.

    Why are you pretending that people aren't going to be annoyed if they think the government is giving preferential treatment to others ?

    Because virtually nobody in the North and Midlands will lose a penny from the winter fuel allowances, now some southern Tories like you might as a result of the means test but you are hardly going to vote for Corbyn anyway are you and I doubt for Farron either?
    You keep bleating this and its bollox.

    Firstly I'm not a southerner, secondly I'm not a Tory and thirdly I don't get WFA but being in the actual North (unlike you) I might well be reading the situation better.

    You have no idea who might or might not lose their WFA, nor more importantly do the people who receive it.

    And you keep ignoring the imagery of May agreeing to give preferential treatment to Scotland - something which will annoy far beyond those who get WFA.
    You are I assume not lower middle class or working class ie the former UKIP voters May needs and those people will thus not be affected at all by means testing winter fuel allowance so why on earth should they care what happens in Scotland as the policy will not affect them anyway?
    In which case why does not means testing WFA in Scotland attract those same voters if it wont apply to them.

    And you still keep ignoring the imagery of May agreeing to give preferential treatment to Scotland - something which will annoy fay beyond those who get WFA.
    As in Scotland the Tories need to win upper middle class voters who in 2015 voted SNP after voting No in 2014, in England upper middle class voters largely vote Tory anyway
    Yeah, right - all those upper middle class voters in Moray and Banff and Dumfries are going to lead SCON to triumph. And these upper middle class Scots are apparently so much more deserving of WFA than the upper middle class voters of Workington or Hartlepool or Wrexham.

    As I said there's a whole lot of extra pressure on Davidson to produce now.

    And BTW how many Conservatives MPs in England and Wales would you be prepared to lose to gain extra SCON MPs ?
    I expect to lose 0 Tory MPs in England and Wales beyond maybe a handful in the South to the LDs because of this policy, I would expect to gain up to 10 Tory MPs in Scotland from the SNP
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,033
    edited May 2017

    dixiedean said:

    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    kyf_100 said:

    dixiedean said:

    As a Labour supporter, (but not a Corbynite), I am relatively sanguine about this election. What has been lost? An extra TWO years of Conservative rule. What has been gained? An abandonment of free markets as the only solution to any and all difficulties. Re-nationalisation introduced as a subject for discussion. Price controls on the table too. No promises of no tax rises. The deficit kicked down the road. The real prospect of Keynesian deficit financing as a govt policy. Legal marijuana openly discussed. Tories wanting to regulate Internet companies. Pensioners no longer immune from cuts. Above all, the possibility of Corbyn going. Sounds like a win for me.

    Assuming he gets a decent vote share or number of seats... why would Corbyn go, having achieved all of the above?
    He may not. He hasn't achieved all of the above. Some of it has been gifted him. But he is 67. Will be 72 in 2022. Would he want to? Still think there will be a majority of 100+. Labour ideas have been adopted by the Tories, and will be subjects for political discussion. You intervene on A why not B? You intervene on A why not more?
    Even giving Corbyn the ability to hang on and stand aside at a time of his own choosing, to a successor of his choosing, is an abject failure.

    It struck me just now, from this evening's thread, that the Conservative manifesto is essentially a future tense version of John Major's awful slogan, "Yes it hurt, yes it worked".

    Yes, it's going to hurt, but yes, it's going to work...

    The thing is, if you have to kick the electorate in the crotch, you don't *tell* them you're about to hit them in the crotch...
    Nevertheless, the Overton Window has moved this campaign. And it has moved leftwards. For an extra 2 years of government. Result for labour whatever the majority.
    Perhaps - but the window moves by every act the government makes in office too not just while campaigning. It is quite possible that five years of a healthy Tory majority should see the Overton Window move further right. Probably more than it would have done in 3 years of a slim majority.
    Indeed that is possible. There are many "right-wing" policies such as hanging, and cutting foreign aid, which are very popular, but outside the Overton window. However, my instinct is that there will be winners and losers from Brexit. The Right will be the government and will have to own them. For 2 extra years of power will that really pay off long term? Maybe, maybe not. Certainly, I cannot see fox hunting or regulating the Internet being a vote winner any time soon.
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    There is overwhelming support for means testing winter fuel in the comments at the bottom of the article on the BBC website.

    OK, it's a self-selecting sample but it's the BBC so should be being looked at by a very broad range of the population.

    The strength of support is far greater than the strength of criticism of the Labour Manifesto.

    Link - open comments at bottom, then sort by highest rated.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39972743
  • Options
    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,319
    edited May 2017
    Example of comment on BBC website:

    "In 2013 it was Labour policy to axe the Winter Fuel payment for the wealthiest pensioners. Ed Balls said:

    "...at a time when the public services that pensioners and others rely on are under strain, it can no longer be a priority to continue paying the winter fuel allowance to the wealthiest pensioners," he said.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22748914

    Now its "sick and sneaky"..?? LOL"

    Votes agreeing with comment - 146
    Votes disagreeing with comment - 4
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    ab195 said:

    You lot are very wobbly. No offence but I don't you want you in my trench with me. The sound of a single shell and you'd surrender.

    Most PB Leavers don't like to say they were motivated by immigration concerns, that shows how unrepresentative it is.

    The kind of people who voted for Blair and Cameron aren't going to vote for Corbyn over May
    Again, that's not the problem, it's Northern Lab -> UKIP -> Tory voters that will be rushing back to Labour. This is literally the Tories "showing their true colours" for many.
    And threaten Brexit -
    Pretty much the whole Labour manifesto is predicated on Brexit. Corbyn as PM would still deliver Brexit.
    You really are irrational. With 26% corporation tax, anti business, and the march ot the unions we wouln't have a prayer
    I assure you I'm q
    If Theresa can shift the argument back to Brexit then she's still got a chance, but a manifesto which values any northerner less than someone else is not helpful. At all.
    Rubbish, the average Labour to UKIP to Tory voter will be lucky to have a house worth £150k let alone £500k and will keep most of that even if they need care, they will be on an average or slightly below average UK wage so will not lose winter fuel payments and they will love May's commitment to get immigration below 100 000 a year and her backing for Brexit
    Will they love being told that they're less important than Scots and less entitled to WFA ?

    Because that's the imagery May has allowed to happen.
    Rubbish, Davidson's comments do not even make the main headlines outside of Scotland, the main people who are annoyed at May are wealthy southerners and Londoners, Northerners and those in the Midlands and Wales will be barely affected at all
    Take a look at the Telegraph.

    And stop denying reality.

    This will cost the Conservatives seats and that's a fact.

    Now you might think this will gain SCON a few extra MPs and be worth the lost seats in England and Wales - but that's a different issue.

    There's a whole lot of extra pressure on Davidson to deliver now.
    Which seats?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,793
    MI5 opened a file on Jeremy Corbyn amid concerns over his links to the IRA, the Telegraph has discovered.

    The Labour leader was investigated over fears that he could have been a threat to national security at a time when he was supporting convicted terrorists and campaigning for a unified Ireland.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/19/exclusive-mi5-opened-file-jeremy-corbyn-amid-concerns-ira-links/
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,010
    New thread.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,145

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    ab195 said:

    You lot are very wobbly. No offence but I don't you want you in my trench with me. The sound of a single shell and you'd surrender.

    Most PB Leavers don't like to say they were motivated by immigration concerns, that shows how unrepresentative it is.

    The kind of people who voted for Blair and Cameron aren't going to vote for Corbyn over May
    Again, that's not the problem, it's Northern Lab -> UKIP -> Tory voters that will be rushing back to Labour. This is literally the Tories "showing their true colours" for many.
    And threaten Brexit -
    Pretty much the whole Labour manifesto is predicated on Brexit. Corbyn as PM would still deliver Brexit.
    You really are irrational. With 26% corporation tax, anti business, and the march ot the unions we wouln't have a prayer
    I assure you I'm q
    If Theresa can shift the argument back to Brexit then she's still got a chance, but a manifesto which values any northerner less than someone else is not helpful. At all.
    Rubbish, the average Labour to UKIP to Tory voter will be lucky to have a house worth £150k let alone £500k and will keep most of that even if they need care, they will be on an average or slightly below average UK wage so will not lose winter fuel payments and they will love May's commitment to get immigration below 100 000 a year and her backing for Brexit
    Will they love being told that they're less important than Scots and less entitled to WFA ?

    Because that's the imagery May has allowed to happen.
    Rubbish, Davidson's comments do not even make the main headlines outside of Scotland, the main people who are annoyed at May are wealthy southerners and Londoners, Northerners and those in the Midlands and Wales will be barely affected at all
    Take a look at the Telegraph.

    And stop denying reality.

    This will cost the Conservatives seats and that's a fact.

    Now you might think this will gain SCON a few extra MPs and be worth the lost seats in England and Wales - but that's a different issue.

    There's a whole lot of extra pressure on Davidson to deliver now.
    Which seats?
    The seats which the Conservatives fail to win in England and Wales by a few hundred votes.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,145
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    You keep bleating this and its bollox.

    Firstly I'm not a southerner, secondly I'm not a Tory and thirdly I don't get WFA but being in the actual North (unlike you) I might well be reading the situation better.

    You have no idea who might or might not lose their WFA, nor more importantly do the people who receive it.

    And you keep ignoring the imagery of May agreeing to give preferential treatment to Scotland - something which will annoy far beyond those who get WFA.

    You are I assume not lower middle class or working class ie the former UKIP voters May needs and those people will thus not be affected at all by means testing winter fuel allowance so why on earth should they care what happens in Scotland as the policy will not affect them anyway?
    In which case why does not means testing WFA in Scotland attract those same voters if it wont apply to them.

    And you still keep ignoring the imagery of May agreeing to give preferential treatment to Scotland - something which will annoy fay beyond those who get WFA.
    As in Scotland the Tories need to win upper middle class voters who in 2015 voted SNP after voting No in 2014, in England upper middle class voters largely vote Tory anyway
    Yeah, right - all those upper middle class voters in Moray and Banff and Dumfries are going to lead SCON to triumph. And these upper middle class Scots are apparently so much more deserving of WFA than the upper middle class voters of Workington or Hartlepool or Wrexham.

    As I said there's a whole lot of extra pressure on Davidson to produce now.

    And BTW how many Conservatives MPs in England and Wales would you be prepared to lose to gain extra SCON MPs ?
    I expect to lose 0 Tory MPs in England and Wales beyond maybe a handful in the South to the LDs because of this policy, I would expect to gain up to 10 Tory MPs in Scotland from the SNP
    Its the seats they would have won in England and Wales but now wont.

    Its the opportunity cost.

    Now how many extra MPs will SCON get by not means testing WFA in Scotland and how many extra MPs will the Conservatives fail to get by means testing WFA in England and Wales.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,187

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    You keep bleating this and its bollox.

    Firstly I'm not a southerner, secondly I'm not a Tory and thirdly I don't get WFA but being in the actual North (unlike you) I might well be reading the situation better.

    You have no idea who might or might not lose their WFA, nor more importantly do the people who receive it.

    And you keep ignoring the imagery of May agreeing to give preferential treatment to Scotland - something which will annoy far beyond those who get WFA.

    You are I assume not lower middle class or working class ie the former UKIP voters May needs and those people will thus not be affected at all by means testing winter fuel allowance so why on earth should they care what happens in Scotland as the policy will not affect them anyway?
    In which case why does not means testing WFA in Scotland attract those same voters if it wont apply to them.

    And you still keep ignoring the imagery of May agreeing to give preferential treatment to Scotland - something which will annoy fay beyond those who get WFA.
    As in Scotland the Tories need to win upper middle class voters who in 2015 voted SNP after voting No in 2014, in England upper middle class voters largely vote Tory anyway
    Yeah, right - all those upper middle class voters in Moray and Banff and Dumfries are going to lead SCON to triumph. And these upper middle class Scots are apparently so much more deserving of WFA than the upper middle class voters of Workington or Hartlepool or Wrexham.

    As I said there's a whole lot of extra pressure on Davidson to produce now.

    And BTW how many Conservatives MPs in England and Wales would you be prepared to lose to gain extra SCON MPs ?
    I expect to lose 0 Tory MPs in England and Wales beyond maybe a handful in the South to the LDs because of this policy, I would expect to gain up to 10 Tory MPs in Scotland from the SNP
    Its the seats they would have won in England and Wales but now wont.

    Its the opportunity cost.

    Now how many extra MPs will SCON get by not means testing WFA in Scotland and how many extra MPs will the Conservatives fail to get by means testing WFA in England and Wales.
    There will be virtually no seats in the North and Midlands and Wales the Tories won't win after the manifesto they would have won before as house prices in all those areas are under £100k so even if they need care they keep most of their assets and as most will not be affected by means tested WFA
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,145
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:


    In which case why does not means testing WFA in Scotland attract those same voters if it wont apply to them.

    And you still keep ignoring the imagery of May agreeing to give preferential treatment to Scotland - something which will annoy fay beyond those who get WFA.

    As in Scotland the Tories need to win upper middle class voters who in 2015 voted SNP after voting No in 2014, in England upper middle class voters largely vote Tory anyway
    Yeah, right - all those upper middle class voters in Moray and Banff and Dumfries are going to lead SCON to triumph. And these upper middle class Scots are apparently so much more deserving of WFA than the upper middle class voters of Workington or Hartlepool or Wrexham.

    As I said there's a whole lot of extra pressure on Davidson to produce now.

    And BTW how many Conservatives MPs in England and Wales would you be prepared to lose to gain extra SCON MPs ?
    I expect to lose 0 Tory MPs in England and Wales beyond maybe a handful in the South to the LDs because of this policy, I would expect to gain up to 10 Tory MPs in Scotland from the SNP
    Its the seats they would have won in England and Wales but now wont.

    Its the opportunity cost.

    Now how many extra MPs will SCON get by not means testing WFA in Scotland and how many extra MPs will the Conservatives fail to get by means testing WFA in England and Wales.
    There will be virtually no seats in the North and Midlands and Wales the Tories won't win after the manifesto they would have won before as house prices in all those areas are under £100k so even if they need care they keep most of their assets and as most will not be affected by means tested WFA
    The North and Midlands are not one big Coronation Street.

    Two minutes on RightMove will show this.

    http://www.rightmove.co.uk/
This discussion has been closed.