MI5 opened file on Jeremy Corbyn amid concerns over his IRA links
The revelations come as a Telegraph investigation reveals Mr Corbyn’s full links to the IRA, including his support for one of the Balcombe Street gang, who waged a 14-month bombing campaign across south-east England, and his links to the bomb maker believed to have been behind the Hyde Park and Regents Park devices.
Mr Corbyn also shared a platform with a wanted IRA killer and John McDonnell, his shadow Chancellor, claimed that the pair of them used to “pin people against the wall” in the House of Commons to lobby them on behalf of Ireland, can be disclosed.
Labour within 10, their best chance for it. They had that with at least one company shortly before the campaign started, so despite the regular 15+ leads it would not be impossible to see it once more off the back of this manifesto, which has been poorly received (which having read all three, is not some disaster, though despite not revealing much costed detail, is the most open about challenges and reducing things), being unpopular for some things on the right and taking away gray vote bribes.
At this point two years ago the narrative was about how poor the Tory campaign was, how nasty their £12bn in welfare cuts were and how great the Labour non-dom stuff was, so there is perhaps some similarity to where we seem to be. If memory serves the Tory campaign was wobbling three weeks out in 2010 also.
They do seem to be making mistakes and struggling with their messaging though, seemingly relying on Corbyn and Co's lack of credibility to trump all.
In the end people will go for the safest option with Brexit, the economy and handling the SNP. It will trump all the individual little policy pieces.
@SeanT...if you are horny, and a middle aged man with money and a bit of confidence you can shag for Britain...I have some very good friends who fit that type...
I (sort of) feel sorry for the girls...but they know the score....But, seriously comrade you do not have to brag about it. Could you imagine being cornered at a party by DJT and hearing story upon story about his cockmanship....not pleasant....boring and sad....my stories of chomping down a six pack of Walkers cheese and onions is far more interesting....
my stories of chomping down a six pack of Walkers cheese and onions is far more interesting....<
Even in office it will hang over them. Wait for the first Newcastle granny to die of hypothermia, and the screaming Mail headlines contrasting her with the happy Glasgow granny in her well heated bungalow, nibbling shortbread, only alive because the Geordie pensioner died because of her Caledonian sister's special Scottish fuel subsidy.
Unbelieveably bad politics by the Tories. They are trying to lose an unloseable election.
Soon it won't even be the competence of Westminster.
The message is massive spending everywhere. Admirably simple, even though I don't believe it is possible or sensible.
I like one person noted that Corbyn is not a spin free politician, referencing the train incident. He does it less than most, he is often understated, but he does spin.
America is Britain in about 1900, or 1905. It still rules the world militarily, but others have used the peace it imposed, to get much richer and stronger, and they will soon overtake.
I am not arguing being the world's policeman is a way to get rich but you cannot truly be a global superpower if you do not come at least close to that status and not all US interventions have been disasters, Gulf War 1 for example or Panama and even Afghanistan eventually got rid of Bin Laden. Japan showed itself willing to intervene well beyond its borders in WW2 even if in the wrong way. Otherwise China will basically be a giant Switzerland with nuclear weapons
You can dominate the world by trade. Indeed it is probably the best way. People always need
People buy a lot of Chinese goods because they are cheap, they still tend to go elsewhere for quality and until China is really willing to gets its hands dirty in the Middle East when needed it will not be a true superpower
This is simply delusional. You're basically arguing that, until China is ready to get involved in a calamitous, unwinnable imperial Middle East war, it cannot be considered as a superpower.
Have you considered the possibility that China's leaders have looked at recent American history and thought: ooh, no, don;t go there, costs a trillion dollars, and ends in disaster?
Why the F should China invade Kuwait or Iraq or Israel or anywhere? It can dominate through trade. It has no desire to export a political system, like America. Its mindset is entirely different. And it has no Jewish lobby forcing it into unwise wars.
As for the Mid East, China has invested hugely in renewables - where it leads the world. It will soon have no interest in Baghdad - or Jerusalem.
As I said China may lead economically but if it becomes the world no 1 sooner or later ISIS or its successors may well start to turn their attention to its cities too (there are 23 million Muslims in China) and if China does not tackle the problem at source it could soon find it difficult to control
But China is intervening. It has basically taken over the South China sea, against the will of America and her allies. She has even built man made islands in the middle of it. They are intervining in a much smarter ways then America. As for the Muslim minority causing a problem, they are not a democracy so they can be easily supressed. Muslim men aren't even allowed to grow beards for example.
I didn't think that May could do worse than Cameron's 'Invitation to Join the Government of the United Kingdom'. But perhaps she has.
Time for sleep...
The manifesto is fine - its well written if a bit wordy, not getting into much detail, but it lists its priorities clearly, and its key messages are not lost amidst clutter. Labour's is full of giveaways, uncosted, full of seemingly irrelevant detail, but its proposals will be more popular, and there's a definite focus on worker's rights.
But the Tory one has pissed off the right and seemingly the left don't like it either, so not a great document in that respect, whereas Labour's has encouraged the Corbyn lovers and the loyalists, and anyone who hadn't already left was resigned to it even if they did hate it. So only one side would be damaged by their manifesto/
As was predicted at the start of the campaign, short of 100 majority seems highly likely. May had better have good answers for any interviews, since it is slip ups in defending their policies that are her biggest enem.y
America is Britain in about 1900, or 1905. It still rules the world militarily, but others have used the peace it imposed, to get much richer and stronger, and they will soon overtake.
I am not arguing being the world's policeman is a way to get rich but you cannot truly be a global superpower if you do not come at least close to that status and not all US interventions have been disasters, Gulf War 1 for example or Panama and even Afghanistan eventually got rid of Bin Laden. Japan showed itself willing to intervene well beyond its borders in WW2 even if in the wrong way. Otherwise China will basically be a giant Switzerland with nuclear weapons
You can dominate the world by trade. Indeed it is probably the best way. People always need
People buy a lot of Chinese goods because they are cheap, they still tend to go elsewhere for quality and until China is really willing to gets its hands dirty in the Middle East when needed it will not be a true superpower
This is simply delusional. You're basically arguing that, until China is ready to get involved in a calamitous, unwinnable imperial Middle East war, it cannot be considered as a superpower.
Have you considered the possibility that China's leaders have looked at recent American history and thought: ooh, - or Jerusalem.
As I said China may lead economically but if it becomes the world no 1 sooner or later ISIS or its successors may well start to turn their attention to its cities too (there are 23 million Muslims in China) and if China does not tackle the problem at source it could soon find it difficult to control
But China is intervening. It has basically taken over the South China sea, against the will of America and her allies. She has even built man made islands in the middle of it. They are intervining in a much smarter ways then America. As for the Muslim minority causing a problem, they are not a democracy so they can be easily supressed. Muslim men aren't even allowed to grow beards for example.
China only intervenes in areas close to its border and it only takes a small percentage of those 23 million Chinese Muslims to radicalise and turn to terrorism and China and its cities have a problem
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
I despise TMay. And her idiot advisors. Fuck them.
I just don't think she is very good at politics. I honestly don't know who she is trying to appeal to at the moment. These policies aren't leftist enough to get Labour voters, she has succeeded in pissing of the right and centre right, she's pissed off the small state types. I think Tory support is going to be incredibly shallow with her in charge. If Labour offers a credible alternative in the centre after the election I think we could get smashed in 2022.
There is literally nothing for anyone who is economically liberal, it's all regulation, intervention and big government. That's not the Tory party I signed up for.
Quite impressed, over at the Guardian website, by the number of readers who seem to support the Tory social care policy. A lot of them are fed up with the idea that, to meet the spiralling costs of social care, working people should pay more tax so that the assets and inheritances of wealthy families are protected.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
I despise TMay. And her idiot advisors. Fuck them.
I just don't think she is very good at politics. I honestly don't know who she is trying to appeal to at the moment. These policies aren't leftist enough to get Labour voters, she has succeeded in pissing of the right and centre right, she's pissed off the small state types. I think Tory support is going to be incredibly shallow with her in charge. If Labour offers a credible alternative in the centre after the election I think we could get smashed in 2022.
There is literally nothing for anyone who is economically liberal, it's all regulation, intervention and big government. That's not the Tory party I signed up for.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP in Scotland and she has a majority of a little over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
Even in office it will hang over them. Wait for the first Newcastle granny to die of hypothermia, and the screaming Mail headlines contrasting her with the happy Glasgow granny in her well heated bungalow, nibbling shortbread, only alive because the Geordie pensioner died because of her Caledonian sister's special Scottish fuel subsidy.
Unbelieveably bad politics by the Tories. They are trying to lose an unloseable election.
Its a devolved affair so the Tories in Scotland in no position to implement said policy
Even in office it will hang over them. Wait for the first Newcastle granny to die of hypothermia, and the screaming Mail headlines contrasting her with the happy Glasgow granny in her well heated bungalow, nibbling shortbread, only alive because the Geordie pensioner died because of her Caledonian sister's special Scottish fuel subsidy.
Unbelieveably bad politics by the Tories. They are trying to lose an unloseable election.
Its the bizarre obsession of helping the Scottish Tories who, for all the big talk you read on this site, are still underachieving failures.
There are, of course, no shortage of other things where Scots are given preferential treatment.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
Quite impressed, over at the Guardian website, by the number of readers who seem to support the Tory social care policy. A lot of them are fed up with the idea that, to meet the spiralling costs of social care, working people should pay more tax so that the assets and inheritances of wealthy families are protected.
I've raised it with a number of people, nearly all of whom thought it was a good idea pretty much on that basis, as they don't think they'll ever be in a position where they would need to pay, they are the ones who need help, not those the policy would hit is how they see it. I don't think overall momentum will be hurt by this, but it is clear a lot of right wing Tories don't like May's pitch, and there has been a hysterical reaction against the manifesto in a way that I don't recall with Labour's, so for this weekend at least expect a Labour bump.
Question is can the Tories turn it around and start getting leads comfortable above 15 again? Ok, they'd be happy to win a 60-70 seat majority, but they also clearly want to seize the opportunity to get a lot more than that, to challenge in places they have not for decades, and so far no one seems to be running in fear of Corbyn - we keep being told they will, but they aren't. Ok, they won't make him PM either, but the Tory plan has been incredibly complacent - we have our voters in the bag, let's go after Labour voters who will jump at the chance to leave Jeremy. And it isn't happening.
Even in office it will hang over them. Wait for the first Newcastle granny to die of hypothermia, and the screaming Mail headlines contrasting her with the happy Glasgow granny in her well heated bungalow, nibbling shortbread, only alive because the Geordie pensioner died because of her Caledonian sister's special Scottish fuel subsidy.
Unbelieveably bad politics by the Tories. They are trying to lose an unloseable election.
Its a devolved affair so the Tories in Scotland in no position to implement said policy
If its not implanted in Scotland then presumably cuts would have to be somewhere else.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP in Scotland and she has a majority of a little over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP in Scotland and she has a majority of a little over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
You need to set your sights lower. Much lower.
How low are we talking? 50-70? 40-60? 30-50? Lower?
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
I despise TMay. And her idiot advisors. Fuck them.
I just don't think she is very good at politics. I honestly don't know who she is trying to appeal to at the moment. These policies aren't leftist enough to get Labour voters, she has succeeded in pissing of the right and centre right, she's pissed off the small state types. I think Tory support is going to be incredibly shallow with her in charge. If Labour offers a credible alternative in the centre after the election I think we could get smashed in 2022.
There is literally nothing for anyone who is economically liberal, it's all regulation, intervention and big government. That's not the Tory party I signed up for.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
If they are poor, how are they being smashed?
It doesn't matter, that's the perception. It may or may not be fair, but by keeping it in Scotland and not in the North it has sent that message out loud and clear, the Tories don't give a fuck about the North, stick with Labour - our leader might be a chump but at least he values you for more than voting Leave.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
Exactly. The focus is no longer on Brexit at all. It's now on heartless Tories stealing Baby Boomers perks while dishing them out to the Scots.
In fact as far as Brexit is concerned Corbyn might be a better bet to deliver a full Brexit than wishy washy May... He's been leave for 40 years, was half-hearted for remain in the referendum, called for A50 to be invoked on the morning after the referendum (none of the messing around that we've had under the Tories) and the platform he's standing for election on could only be achieved once we've left the EU, so...
It's funny how for years people have been complaining about how the older generations are protected in the face of economic sense for the sake of electoral advantage. Finally the Tories grasp the nettle of challenging this and they are lambasted from all sides for... I don't know what but apparently it's presumably seeking electoral advantage.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
The problem isn't the policy but allowing the impression that Scotland will get preferential treatment.
If Davidson wants to keep the fuel allowance then she should say she would raise tax to pay for it.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
If they are poor, how are they being smashed?
It doesn't matter, that's the perception. It may or may not be fair, but by keeping it in Scotland and not in the North it has sent that message out loud and clear, the Tories don't give a fuck about the North, stick with Labour - our leader might be a chump but at least he values you for more than voting Leave.
Oh, I see your point - I thought you were referring to the policy in general, not the Scottish exemption. Not really sure who is running the PR side of things, it should really have been spun as a decision for the Scottish Parliament, which it will be by the time the policy change comes into effect.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
Exactly. The focus is no longer on Brexit at all. It's now on heartless Tories stealing Baby Boomers perks while dishing them out to the Scots.
In fact as far as Brexit is concerned Corbyn might be a better bet to deliver a full Brexit than wishy washy May... He's been leave for 40 years, was half-hearted for remain in the referendum, called for A50 to be invoked on the morning after the referendum (none of the messing around that we've had under the Tories) and the platform he's standing for election on could only be achieved once we've left the EU, so...
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP in Scotland and she has a majority of a little over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
You need to set your sights lower. Much lower.
Why? The average house price in the North and Midlands and Wales is about £150k to £200k so they still keep most of that even if they need care and most are not wealthy enough to lose means tested winter fuel payments but they do back May on Brexit and immigration, this will barely affect their votes. The average house in the South East is about £300k+ but those seats will not go Labour even if a handful go LD, in London the average house price is over £500k but London was never going to be great for May anyway. Scotland is basically a proxy indyref2 vote (and Holyrood sets social care and winter fuel payments anyway) so May's Tories will still get the Unionist vote there
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP in Scotland and she has a majority of a little over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
You need to set your sights lower. Much lower.
How low are we talking? 50-70? 40-60? 30-50? Lower?
Don't know. We need to wait for the polls and see how much damage has been done yesterday and today.
That look like 3 % want privet police and 4 % privet sector Armed forces. Is this showing the anrco-capitalists are much bigger that I thought, or do some people just not understand the question.
Previous conservatives and undecideds will not vote for Corbyn no matter what
There's no panic, the Tories will win a 60-80 seat majority which is more than enough to say it was worth it. The issue is when Labour dump Corbyn and move into the centre (which has moved significantly to the left over the last few days). They'll be much more convincing in a centre ground written by Ed Miliband rather than one one written by Oliver Letwin. The Tory party is the party of lower taxes, less government interference and more consumer choice. It is our natural position, fighting labour in the centre on their turf is not going to be easy when the current idiots in charge of the Labour party are consigned to the dustbin of history.
The Sabians w 1460, kick-starting the Renaissance...
I've been to Harran!!! Nearby Sogmatar, a centre of Sabian paganism and moon-worship and human sacrifice is one of the most intense, unsettling and moodily menacing places on earth.
I think you said you also visited Gobekli Tepe itself? I only know about it through Graham Hancock's writings, but still a fascinating place. Has one of the earliest representations of Scorpio, on Pillar 43!
I wrote an entire (and globally best-selling) thriller about Gobekli Tepe.
The Genesis Secret.
I was one of the first journalists to really investigate it, and got incredible access from the late German archaeologist who then ran it, Klaus Schmidt (his character is barely disguised in the book). When my thriller came out Klaus said in the press that I had warped his quotes etc (I hadn't). At the time, I found this a bit sad, but understood why he had to do it. But I regretted the fact we had fallen out.
I thought that was it, until recent months, when I became online friends with the young German archaeologist who has taken over from Klaus Schmidt. He told me the other day, in private, that in secret Klaus rather liked and enjoyed my thriller the Genesis Secret, and him and Klaus had spent many evenings sipping wine, in Sanliurfa Turkey, discussing the mad theories contained therein. And whether they might be true!
It was a genuinely proud moment.
Ave atque vale, Klaus Schmidt.
This is a photo I took of him at Gobekli, which is now all over the internet, used by millions, I get no money, but hey. He was a dude, and we had great discussions.
Interesting stuff indeed! While Klaus was open-minded enough to definitely date the site to 11,600 years ago, he seemed to have refused point-blank to consider there are Zodiacal constellations depicted on the pillars. That scorpion on Pillar 43, coupled with the whole site's orientation on its shorter axis to roughly 60 degrees east of north (the azimuth of the rising summer solstice sun) points to a time when Scorpio contained sun at the summer solstice - roughly 11,600 years ago!
BTW that's MY theory, not Graham Hancock's! He thinks it points to our current astronomical epoch for some reason, ie. a time capsule of sorts.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP in Scotland and she has a majority of a little over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
You need to set your sights lower. Much lower.
Why? The average house price in the North and Midlands and Wales is about £150k to £200k so they still keep most of that even if they need care and most are not wealthy enough to lose means tested winter fuel payments but they do back May on Brexit and immigration, this will barely affect their votes. The average house the South East is about £300k+ but those seats will not go Labour even if a handful go LD, in London the average house price is over £500k but London was never going to be great for May anyway. Scotland is basically a proxy indyref2 vote (and Holyrood sets social care and winter fuel payments anyway) so May's Tories will still get the Unionist vote there
Doesn't matter what the facts are (and I repeat reforming social care is something that needs to be done) but I'm sensing immense anger among people who you would assume to be her natural supporters and the perceptions (especially the perks continuing for Scottish pensioners) are just terrible.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
With respect that is just so over the top. How does taking WFA away from wealthy pensioners and increasing their capital protection to £100,000 smash the poor northern old people, they still keep WFA .
And by the way what are Corbyn's IHT proposals and where are his social care ones
I have a horrible feeling TMay is gonna come out of this with a barely increased majority. Maybe 20-40 seats in front. A total waste of time.
She will be severely weakened, and our Brexit deal will be considerably worse, and we will all live in fear of a still Corbynized Labour taking over in 2022.
She is a twat.
I think we're still looking at ca. 30 gains from labour and 10 gains in Scotland/Wales. With less than 10 losses that would be a majority of 60-70 which is pretty good, but not the 83/97 style landslide many were hoping for. The manifesto was a serious misstep.
I have a horrible feeling TMay is gonna come out of this with a barely increased majority. Maybe 20-40 seats in front. A total waste of time.
She will be severely weakened, and our Brexit deal will be considerably worse, and we will all live in fear of a still Corbynized Labour taking over in 2022.
She is a twat.
Question. Until a week ago what was your genuine, unpolitically motivated, opinion on the Triple lock, Winter fuel payments, free tv licences and the rest?
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
If they are poor, how are they being smashed?
It doesn't matter, that's the perception. It may or may not be fair, but by keeping it in Scotland and not in the North it has sent that message out loud and clear, the Tories don't give a fuck about the North, stick with Labour - our leader might be a chump but at least he values you for more than voting Leave.
Oh, I see your point - I thought you were referring to the policy in general, not the Scottish exemption. Not really sure who is running the PR side of things, it should really have been spun as a decision for the Scottish Parliament, which it will be by the time the policy change comes into effect.
Giving the impression that she's willing to pander to a shrill, bossy, always demanding Scotswoman is not good PR in England.
And Ruth Davidson comes across as much a shrill, bossy, always demanding Scotswoman as Nicola Sturgeon.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
I despise TMay. And her idiot advisors. Fuck them.
I just don't think she is very good at politics. I honestly don't know who she is trying to appeal to at the moment. These policies aren't leftist enough to get Labour voters, she has succeeded in pissing of the right and centre right, she's pissed off the small state types. I think Tory support is going to be incredibly shallow with her in charge. If Labour offers a credible alternative in the centre after the election I think we could get smashed in 2022.
There is literally nothing for anyone who is economically liberal, it's all regulation, intervention and big government. That's not the Tory party I signed up for.
I'm starting to see Mayism as repressive social/christian conservatism.
Not so popular on an open gambling forum. Posters on this site tend to be (at least moderately) socially liberal and unreligious.
Large parts of the country aren't. A significant chunk of the electorate wants the government to ban/place heavy restrictions on socially undesirable stuff like gambling.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
With respect that is just so over the top. How does taking WFA away from wealthy pensioners and increasing their capital ptotection to £100,000 smash the poor northern old people, they still keep WFA
As I said above it's not about the specific policy which 99% of people won't read, it's.the perception that the government are keeping it in Scotland and not in the North.
I have a horrible feeling TMay is gonna come out of this with a barely increased majority. Maybe 20-40 seats in front. A total waste of time.
She will be severely weakened, and our Brexit deal will be considerably worse, and we will all live in fear of a still Corbynized Labour taking over in 2022.
She is a twat.
I think we're still looking at ca. 30 gains from labour and 10 gains in Scotland/Wales. With less than 10 losses that would be a majority of 60-70 which is pretty good, but not the 83/97 style landslide many were hoping for. The manifesto was a serious misstep.
What is more prefential? A landslide result on the back of a manifesto that ties the Government's hands in the ability have a free hand in taking economic decisions in the best interests of the country. Or a solid majority that doesn't restrict the Government at all?
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
If they are poor, how are they being smashed?
It doesn't matter, that's the perception. It may or may not be fair, but by keeping it in Scotland and not in the North it has sent that message out loud and clear, the Tories don't give a fuck about the North, stick with Labour - our leader might be a chump but at least he values you for more than voting Leave.
Max- you are clearly a bright person-but i think you are losing it-im not impressed with the manifesto either, but the idea that Northern pensioners will suddenly wake up tomorrow and think " wow that Mr May hates me because i dont live an extra 50 miles further North of London-gosh i had better vote for that nice Mr Corbyn" is utter Bo!!ocks.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP in Scotland and she has a majority of a little over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
You need to set your sights lower. Much lower.
Why? The ote there
Doesn't matter what the facts are (and I repeat reforming social care is something that needs to be done) but I'm sensing immense anger among people who you would assume to be her natural supporters and the perceptions (especially this perks continuing for Scottish pensioners) are just terrible.
Angering them was to be expected - it's taking something away/asking them to pay more, no one likes that. The question is whether they are so angry they will stay home or vote for Corbyn. I don't know why if you were considering voting May this would make you vote Corbyn instead, but people are odd and he is promising to give the gray vote everything.
That doesn't mean it is a bad policy or her plans are bad of course,
If she ends up with a barely increased majority, say 20-40, this will have been a waste of time but at least she didn't just say it was all sunshine and 250 billion investment. If she gets 50-70 that's probably best as it will not be so comfortable she can sit on her laurels for 5 years.
If she misses out on a 100+ majority because she dared to tell people they had to pay more to cover a crisis in social care and that winter fuel payments cannot be borne in these circumstances, then my respect for her will have gone up, since she will have mentioned something likely to upset likely voters so that she had a mandate to do it after a win, rather than be forced to spring a nasty surprise on them afterwards.
Even in office it will hang over them. Wait for the first Newcastle granny to die of hypothermia, and the screaming Mail headlines contrasting her with the happy Glasgow granny in her well heated bungalow, nibbling shortbread, only alive because the Geordie pensioner died because of her Caledonian sister's special Scottish fuel subsidy.
Unbelieveably bad politics by the Tories. They are trying to lose an unloseable election.
Its the bizarre obsession of helping the Scottish Tories who, for all the big talk you read on this site, are still underachieving failures.
There are, of course, no shortage of other things where Scots are given preferential treatment.
Isn't it more about lancing the independence boil which is also being played by ultra Remainers? Killing two whinges with one vote.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
I despise TMay. And her idiot advisors. Fuck them.
I just don't think she is very good at politics. I honestly don't know who she is trying to appeal to at the moment. These policies aren't leftist enough to get Labour voters, she has succeeded in pissing of the right and centre right, she's pissed off the small state types. I think Tory support is going to be incredibly shallow with her in charge. If Labour offers a credible alternative in the centre after the election I think we could get smashed in 2022.
There is literally nothing for anyone who is economically liberal, it's all regulation, intervention and big government. That's not the Tory party I signed up for.
I'm starting to see Mayism as repressive social/christian conservatism.
Not so popular on an open gambling forum. Posters on this site tend to be (at least moderately) socially liberal and unreligious.
Large parts of the country aren't. A significant chunk of the electorate will welcome heavy restrictions on socially undesirable stuff like gambling.
I recon that's what's comin'
I think you're right, but I don't know how she will be able to handle a credible Labour leader on Labour turf. I think the party might dump her after 2020 once Brexit is done and opt for one of the Notting Hill set who can shift the centre ground back towards the right.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
With respect that is just so over the top. How does taking WFA away from wealthy pensioners and increasing their capital ptotection to £100,000 smash the poor northern old people, they still keep WFA
As I said above it's not about the specific policy which 99% of people won't read, it's.the perception that the government are keeping it in Scotland and not in the North.
Exactly.
The Conservatives need to point out that if Scotland wants WFA then they will have to raise extra taxes to pay for it.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP in Scotland and she has a majority of a little over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
You need to set your sights lower. Much lower.
Why? The average house price in the North and Midlands and Wales is about £150k to £200k so they still keep most of that even if they need care and most are not wealthy enough to lose means tested winter fuel payments but they do back May on Brexit and immigration, this will barely affect their votes. The average house the South East is about £300k+ but those seats will not go Labour even if a handful go LD, in London the average house price is over £500k but London was never going to be great for May anyway. Scotland is basically a proxy indyref2 vote (and Holyrood sets social care and winter fuel payments anyway) so May's Tories will still get the Unionist vote there
Doesn't matter what the facts are (and I repeat reforming social care is something that needs to be done) but I'm sensing immense anger among people who you would assume to be her natural supporters and the perceptions (especially this perks continuing for Scottish pensioners) are just terrible.
I tend to agree with you. My guess is that this is going down terribly. You do this annoying shit once you are in office, you don't promise it in your manifesto. If TMay was worried about getting it through parliament, she should have promised Lords Reform. Bingo.
But we need polls. Sunday's YouGov is going to be crucial. The fate of the nation - literally - rests on this election. I am amazed people think it is boring.
Calm down PB Tories. You will win and win reasonably big. This is, however, a foretaste of some difficult and unpopular choices which need to be made. And that is before you start regulating the Internet...
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
With respect that is just so over the top. How does taking WFA away from wealthy pensioners and increasing their capital ptotection to £100,000 smash the poor northern old people, they still keep WFA
As I said above it's not about the specific policy which 99% of people won't read, it's.the perception that the government are keeping it in Scotland and not in the North.
That is devolution and different choices are made. I am content to give up my WFA and looking at McDonnell saying he takes his £200 to pay for fuel being castigated on the comments sections this policy will not have a big negative, indeed I believe it will be positive irrespective of Scotland
I have a horrible feeling TMay is gonna come out of this with a barely increased majority. Maybe 20-40 seats in front. A total waste of time.
She will be severely weakened, and our Brexit deal will be considerably worse, and we will all live in fear of a still Corbynized Labour taking over in 2022.
She is a twat.
I think we're still looking at ca. 30 gains from labour and 10 gains in Scotland/Wales. With less than 10 losses that would be a majority of 60-70 which is pretty good, but not the 83/97 style landslide many were hoping for. The manifesto was a serious misstep.
What is more prefential? A landslide result on the back of a manifesto that ties the Government's hands in the ability have a free hand in taking economic decisions in the best interests of the country. Or a solid majority that doesn't restrict the Government at all?
The former. Worry about the other stuff later, get into power first. At least that's the Tory party I joined.
Even in office it will hang over them. Wait for the first Newcastle granny to die of hypothermia, and the screaming Mail headlines contrasting her with the happy Glasgow granny in her well heated bungalow, nibbling shortbread, only alive because the Geordie pensioner died because of her Caledonian sister's special Scottish fuel subsidy.
Unbelieveably bad politics by the Tories. They are trying to lose an unloseable election.
Its a devolved affair so the Tories in Scotland in no position to implement said policy
Did they not realise that, when they dreamed it up? And how it would be seen? Shivering loyal Tory-voting English granny dies of cold in Bamburgh Northumberland, as happy Scottish SNP-voting Britain-hating granny scoffs oatcakes, hanks to Therea May's bumbling stupidity? And thanks to a certain dead English taxpayer?
Stupid, beyond stupid. A terrible blunder. And this from the "Unionist" prime minister.
Good Queen Tess. No more gathering winter fuel for Auld Grannies. Just crank the heating up to 10 and collect the cash from England. Marvellous.
I have a horrible feeling TMay is gonna come out of this with a barely increased majority. Maybe 20-40 seats in front. A total waste of time.
She will be severely weakened, and our Brexit deal will be considerably worse, and we will all live in fear of a still Corbynized Labour taking over in 2022.
She is a twat.
I think we're still looking at ca. 30 gains from labour and 10 gains in Scotland/Wales. With less than 10 losses that would be a majority of 60-70 which is pretty good, but not the 83/97 style landslide many were hoping for. The manifesto was a serious misstep.
What is more prefential? A landslide result on the back of a manifesto that ties the Government's hands in the ability have a free hand in taking economic decisions in the best interests of the country. Or a solid majority that doesn't restrict the Government at all?
The former. Worry about the other stuff later, get into power first.
Even in office it will hang over them. Wait for the first Newcastle granny to die of hypothermia, and the screaming Mail headlines contrasting her with the happy Glasgow granny in her well heated bungalow, nibbling shortbread, only alive because the Geordie pensioner died because of her Caledonian sister's special Scottish fuel subsidy.
Unbelieveably bad politics by the Tories. They are trying to lose an unloseable election.
Its the bizarre obsession of helping the Scottish Tories who, for all the big talk you read on this site, are still underachieving failures.
There are, of course, no shortage of other things where Scots are given preferential treatment.
Isn't it more about lancing the independence boil which is also being played by ultra Remainers? Killing two whinges with one vote.
The independence movement isn't going to disappear.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
If they are poor, how are they being smashed?
It doesn't matter, that's the perception. It may or may not be fair, but by keeping it in Scotland and not in the North it has sent that message out loud and clear, the Tories don't give a fuck about the North, stick with Labour - our leader might be a chump but at least he values you for more than voting Leave.
Max- you are clearly a bright person-but i think you are losing it-im not impressed with the manifesto either, but the idea that Northern pensioners will suddenly wake up tomorrow and think " wow that Mr May hates me because i dont live an extra 50 miles further North of London-gosh i had better vote for that nice Mr Corbyn" is utter Bo!!ocks.
But it's not one thing, it's a catalogue of errors. I can't imagine many of those voters being impressed by fox hunting either.
Contrast and compare to Labour: You may hate Corbyn, but you probably like the idea of renationalising the railiways (for example).
The problem with May's manifesto is it has lots of individual things to dislike but not many things to like.
I have a horrible feeling TMay is gonna come out of this with a barely increased majority. Maybe 20-40 seats in front. A total waste of time.
She will be severely weakened, and our Brexit deal will be considerably worse, and we will all live in fear of a still Corbynized Labour taking over in 2022.
She is a twat.
I think we're still looking at ca. 30 gains from labour and 10 gains in Scotland/Wales. With less than 10 losses that would be a majority of 60-70 which is pretty good, but not the 83/97 style landslide many were hoping for. The manifesto was a serious misstep.
What is more prefential? A landslide result on the back of a manifesto that ties the Government's hands in the ability have a free hand in taking economic decisions in the best interests of the country. Or a solid majority that doesn't restrict the Government at all?
The former. Worry about the other stuff later, get into power first. At least that's the Tory party I joined.
You what? I was giving you a choice between a landslide result and a solid majority. Where does "getting into power" come into it?
Even in office it will hang over them. Wait for the first Newcastle granny to die of hypothermia, and the screaming Mail headlines contrasting her with the happy Glasgow granny in her well heated bungalow, nibbling shortbread, only alive because the Geordie pensioner died because of her Caledonian sister's special Scottish fuel subsidy.
Unbelieveably bad politics by the Tories. They are trying to lose an unloseable election.
Its a devolved affair so the Tories in Scotland in no position to implement said policy
Did they not realise that, when they dreamed it up? And how it would be seen? Shivering loyal Tory-voting English granny dies of cold in Bamburgh Northumberland, as happy Scottish SNP-voting Britain-hating granny scoffs oatcakes, hanks to Therea May's bumbling stupidity? And thanks to a certain dead English taxpayer?
Stupid, beyond stupid. A terrible blunder. And this from the "Unionist" prime minister.
Good Queen Tess. No more gathering winter fuel for Auld Grannies. Just crank the heating up to 10 and collect the cash from England. Marvellous.
To be honest, May has got me considering voting Tory for the first time by being willing to take on these attacks from her own side, when she could have said nothing and just done it afterwards, as has been suggested she should. I'm not a fan of hers, and in terms of detail the LD manifesto was actually the best presented (notwithstanding the Brexit stuff which is the only thing people will care about), but I appreciate she has fronted up about difficult challenges - the manifesto was the only one which opened with a section listing the key challenges that needed facing - and told some of her own voters, tough, you have to pay more. If they desert over that alone (if they truly dislike the overall message that's different, although if they were tempted by her I don't see why Corbyn's offer would be appealing to such a person), that is truly unfortunate.
But then my vote doesn't matter, it's a safe Tory seat, and it is perhaps improbable that my views match with the crucial swing voters in Con-Lab seats across the midlands, north and Wales.
I have a horrible feeling TMay is gonna come out of this with a barely increased majority. Maybe 20-40 seats in front. A total waste of time.
She will be severely weakened, and our Brexit deal will be considerably worse, and we will all live in fear of a still Corbynized Labour taking over in 2022.
She is a twat.
FFS GROW A PAIR
And calm down
I know its late but really-what is the story-"the Scots get extra sweeties"-well strike me down with a tenner-is there a tax payer in England who expects anything different ?
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
With respect that is just so over the top. How does taking WFA away from wealthy pensioners and increasing their capital ptotection to £100,000 smash the poor northern old people, they still keep WFA
As I said above it's not about the specific policy which 99% of people won't read, it's.the perception that the government are keeping it in Scotland and not in the North.
Exactly.
The Conservatives need to point out that if Scotland wants WFA then they will have to raise extra taxes to pay for it.
It's being kept north of the border so that they can nab those seats that Ruth has been targeting. Pure and simple.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP in Scotland and she has a majority of a little over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
You need to set your sights lower. Much lower.
Why? The average house price in the North and Midlands and Wales is about £150k to £200k so they still keep most of that even if they need care and most are not wealthy enough to lose means tested winter fuel payments but they do back May on Brexit and immigration, this will barely affect their votes. The average house in the South East is about £300k+ but those seats will not go Labour even if a handful go LD, in London the average house price is over £500k but London was never going to be great for May anyway. Scotland is basically a proxy indyref2 vote (and Holyrood sets social care and winter fuel payments anyway) so May's Tories will still get the Unionist vote there
I think you are right. I don't think London or Southern England house prices compute elsewhere in the UK. People down here have accepted silly money as normal.
When the vote actually happens it will be built around leadership and who is better regarded to handle critical issues, major events and the overall economy.
Even in office it will hang over them. Wait for the first Newcastle granny to die of hypothermia, and the screaming Mail headlines contrasting her with the happy Glasgow granny in her well heated bungalow, nibbling shortbread, only alive because the Geordie pensioner died because of her Caledonian sister's special Scottish fuel subsidy.
Unbelieveably bad politics by the Tories. They are trying to lose an unloseable election.
Its the bizarre obsession of helping the Scottish Tories who, for all the big talk you read on this site, are still underachieving failures.
There are, of course, no shortage of other things where Scots are given preferential treatment.
Isn't it more about lancing the independence boil which is also being played by ultra Remainers? Killing two whinges with one vote.
The independence movement isn't going to disappear.
If we could get it to stay quiet for a decade at least that would be nice.
I have a horrible feeling TMay is gonna come out of this with a barely increased majority. Maybe 20-40 seats in front. A total waste of time.
She will be severely weakened, and our Brexit deal will be considerably worse, and we will all live in fear of a still Corbynized Labour taking over in 2022.
She is a twat.
I think we're still looking at ca. 30 gains from labour and 10 gains in Scotland/Wales. With less than 10 losses that would be a majority of 60-70 which is pretty good, but not the 83/97 style landslide many were hoping for. The manifesto was a serious misstep.
What is more prefential? A landslide result on the back of a manifesto that ties the Government's hands in the ability have a free hand in taking economic decisions in the best interests of the country. Or a solid majority that doesn't restrict the Government at all?
The former. Worry about the other stuff later, get into power first. At least that's the Tory party I joined.
You what? I was giving you a choice between a landslide result and a solid majority. Where does "getting into power" come into it?
A majority of 60-70 may not be enough for some of the Brexit votes we have coming. How will the government get staying in the CFP area through Parliament were it required as part of a Brexit deal which enabled full free trade in goods and services?
I have a horrible feeling TMay is gonna come out of this with a barely increased majority. Maybe 20-40 seats in front. A total waste of time.
She will be severely weakened, and our Brexit deal will be considerably worse, and we will all live in fear of a still Corbynized Labour taking over in 2022.
She is a twat.
Question. Until a week ago what was your genuine, unpolitically motivated, opinion on the Triple lock, Winter fuel payments, free tv licences and the rest?
I agree with most of her moves. WFA for millionaires is insane. Remove the triple lock. Rebalance the economy towards the young. Yes Yes Yes.
You just don't put these unpopular policies in a manifesto, in such a crucial election, arguably the most important since 1945. You hint and imply. You suggest, and you win. .
If she didn't include stuff the campaign would be defined by the Tories not saying what they would do, which makes them look like they lack leadership.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP in Scotland and she has a majority of a little over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
You need to set your sights lower. Much lower.
Why? The average house price in the North and Midlands and Wales is about £150k to £200k so they still keep most of that even if they need care and most are not wealthy enough to lose means tested winter fuel payments but they do back May on Brexit and immigration, this will barely affect their votes. The average house the South East is about £300k+ but those seats will not go Labour even if a handful go LD, in London the average house price is over £500k but London was never going to be great for May anyway. Scotland is basically a proxy indyref2 vote (and Holyrood sets social care and winter fuel payments anyway) so May's Tories will still get the Unionist vote there
Doesn't matter what the facts are (and I repeat reforming social care is something that needs to be done) but I'm sensing immense anger among people who you would assume to be her natural supporters and the perceptions (especially the perks continuing for Scottish pensioners) are just terrible.
There will be hurrumphs from some of some upper middle class Tories in Surrey and Oxfordshire and Kensington and Chelsea and Sevenoaks but so what? Those seats stayed blue even in 1997, except for the odd LD they will always be blue, they will never vote Corbyn Labour. May's manifesto was aimed full square at the Labour marginal rich Midlands, North and Wales and Unionists in Scotland, that is where she needs to make significant gains and she still will
Even in office it will hang over them. Wait for the first Newcastle granny to die of hypothermia, and the screaming Mail headlines contrasting her with the happy Glasgow granny in her well heated bungalow, nibbling shortbread, only alive because the Geordie pensioner died because of her Caledonian sister's special Scottish fuel subsidy.
Unbelieveably bad politics by the Tories. They are trying to lose an unloseable election.
Its the bizarre obsession of helping the Scottish Tories who, for all the big talk you read on this site, are still underachieving failures.
There are, of course, no shortage of other things where Scots are given preferential treatment.
Isn't it more about lancing the independence boil which is also being played by ultra Remainers? Killing two whinges with one vote.
The independence movement isn't going to disappear.
It may do. Quebecois independence has rather disappeared.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
If they are poor, how are they being smashed?
It doesn't matter, that's the perception. It may or may not be fair, but by keeping it in Scotland and not in the North it has sent that message out loud and clear, the Tories don't give a fuck about the North, stick with Labour - our leader might be a chump but at least he values you for more than voting Leave.
Max- you are clearly a bright person-but i think you are losing it-im not impressed with the manifesto either, but the idea that Northern pensioners will suddenly wake up tomorrow and think " wow that Mr May hates me because i dont live an extra 50 miles further North of London-gosh i had better vote for that nice Mr Corbyn" is utter Bo!!ocks.
But it's not one thing, it's a catalogue of errors. I can't imagine many of those voters being impressed by fox hunting either.
Contrast and compare to Labour: You may hate Corbyn, but you probably like the idea of renationalising the railiways (for example).
The problem with May's manifesto is it has lots of individual things to dislike but not many things to like.
Perhaps it's a "punishment manifesto" for people who dared to vote LEAVE?
I have a horrible feeling TMay is gonna come out of this with a barely increased majority. Maybe 20-40 seats in front. A total waste of time.
She will be severely weakened, and our Brexit deal will be considerably worse, and we will all live in fear of a still Corbynized Labour taking over in 2022.
She is a twat.
My wife is just going through probate after the death of my mother in law.
She was suffering from dementia and the council was insisting the house was sold to cover her costs.
She passed quicker than we expected following the death of her husband - but we seriously expected only to be left with 23k between her children.
Those children see that this policy gives other families the ability to retain more.
I tell them about some of the comment's on here and they just don't get it.
In my office not one person has said anything negative about this budget.
Labours budget resulted in derision and laughter.
No one cared about the Lib Dems budget.
One of my colleagues said she couldn't believe it but her husband was going to vote tory for first time.
Lets wait and see but this site seriously over reacts to everything .
Christ, it wasn't that long ago a bunch of pb'ers were convinced that a nuclear war with North Korea was just around the corner.
Not enough people will vote for Labour, their campaigning and manifesto are to shore up core vote.
They will be further from power after the election than they are today.
Even in office it will hang over them. Wait for the first Newcastle granny to die of hypothermia, and the screaming Mail headlines contrasting her with the happy Glasgow granny in her well heated bungalow, nibbling shortbread, only alive because the Geordie pensioner died because of her Caledonian sister's special Scottish fuel subsidy.
Unbelieveably bad politics by the Tories. They are trying to lose an unloseable election.
Its the bizarre obsession of helping the Scottish Tories who, for all the big talk you read on this site, are still underachieving failures.
There are, of course, no shortage of other things where Scots are given preferential treatment.
Isn't it more about lancing the independence boil which is also being played by ultra Remainers? Killing two whinges with one vote.
The independence movement isn't going to disappear.
It may do. Quebecois independence has rather disappeared.
I have a horrible feeling TMay is gonna come out of this with a barely increased majority. Maybe 20-40 seats in front. A total waste of time.
She will be severely weakened, and our Brexit deal will be considerably worse, and we will all live in fear of a still Corbynized Labour taking over in 2022.
She is a twat.
Question. Until a week ago what was your genuine, unpolitically motivated, opinion on the Triple lock, Winter fuel payments, free tv licences and the rest?
I agree with most of her moves. WFA for millionaires is insane. Remove the triple lock. Rebalance the economy towards the young. Yes Yes Yes.
You just don't put these unpopular policies in a manifesto, in such a crucial election, arguably the most important since 1945. You hint and imply. You suggest, and you win. .
If she didn't include stuff the campaign would be defined by the Tories not saying what they would do, which makes them look like they lack leadership.
No it wouldn't, the answer to every question would have been strong and stable Brexit bs coalition of chaos or whatever it was. That was working. It was cutting through, non-politically inclined friends of mine knew those lines.
I have a horrible feeling TMay is gonna come out of this with a barely increased majority. Maybe 20-40 seats in front. A total waste of time.
She will be severely weakened, and our Brexit deal will be considerably worse, and we will all live in fear of a still Corbynized Labour taking over in 2022.
She is a twat.
I think we're still looking at ca. 30 gains from labour and 10 gains in Scotland/Wales. With less than 10 losses that would be a majority of 60-70 which is pretty good, but not the 83/97 style landslide many were hoping for. The manifesto was a serious misstep.
What is more prefential? A landslide result on the back of a manifesto that ties the Government's hands in the ability have a free hand in taking economic decisions in the best interests of the country. Or a solid majority that doesn't restrict the Government at all?
The former. Worry about the other stuff later, get into power first. At least that's the Tory party I joined.
You what? I was giving you a choice between a landslide result and a solid majority. Where does "getting into power" come into it?
A majority of 60-70 may not be enough for some of the Brexit votes we have coming. How will the government get staying in the CFP area through Parliament were it required as part of a Brexit deal which enabled full free trade in goods and services?
And why would it want to when the manifesto explicitly states we are leaving the CFP?
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP and she has a majority of over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
The problem is that I don't think she will make those gains now. She's moved the argument on from being Mrs Brexit for them to a typical Tory who wants to smash the poor northern old people.
With respect that is just so over the top. How does taking WFA away from wealthy pensioners and increasing their capital ptotection to £100,000 smash the poor northern old people, they still keep WFA
As I said above it's not about the specific policy which 99% of people won't read, it's.the perception that the government are keeping it in Scotland and not in the North.
Exactly.
The Conservatives need to point out that if Scotland wants WFA then they will have to raise extra taxes to pay for it.
It's being kept north of the border so that they can nab those seats that Ruth has been targeting. Pure and simple.
But lose more in England and Wales in return.
And what further bribes are tossed to Scotland at the next election and then the next ?
I have a horrible feeling TMay is gonna come out of this with a barely increased majority. Maybe 20-40 seats in front. A total waste of time.
She will be severely weakened, and our Brexit deal will be considerably worse, and we will all live in fear of a still Corbynized Labour taking over in 2022.
She is a twat.
Question. Until a week ago what was your genuine, unpolitically motivated, opinion on the Triple lock, Winter fuel payments, free tv licences and the rest?
I agree with most of her moves. WFA for millionaires is insane. Remove the triple lock. Rebalance the economy towards the young. Yes Yes Yes.
You just don't put these unpopular policies in a manifesto, in such a crucial election, arguably the most important since 1945. You hint and imply. You suggest, and you win.
So why did she do it? Because she's so uniquely honest? Fuck off, she was insisting for months she would never call an early vote, then suddenly she did, when she saw the political chance, so she's a liar like the rest of them.
This is just a cock-up. They got arrogant and complacent. Hopefully it won't destroy the chances of a very very solid Tory win, but tonight I am wobbly again. I don't like TMay's vision of Britain, the only thing that keeps me voting Tory is Corbyn.
Only a couple of months ago she was forced to abandon a very minor adjustment to the tax system because of a pledge in a manifesto. An ill-made pledge in a manifesto has basically destroyed the Liberal Democrat party. The power of the manifesto is a lot greater than you seem to assume. And you can't fudge it because you will be forced to explain the fudge before the election.
So stop being so schizophrenic. Tough though it may me.
May is hoping to pick up about 10 Scottish SNP seats to get her over the 100 majority mark
100 seat majorities are out of the question now in my view.
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
She will still gain about 45 to 50 Labour seats, mainly in the North, the Midlands and Wales, add in 5-10 from the SNP in Scotland and she has a majority of a little over 100 even if she loses a handful of seats in London and the South to the LDs
You need to set your sights lower. Much lower.
Why? The average house price in the North and Midlands and Wales is about £150k to £200k so they still keep most of that even if they need care and most are not wealthy enough to lose means tested winter fuel payments but they do back May on Brexit and immigration, this will barely affect their votes. The average house in the South East is about £300k+ but those seats will not go Labour even if a handful go LD, in London the average house price is over £500k but London was never going to be great for May anyway. Scotland is basically a proxy indyref2 vote (and Holyrood sets social care and winter fuel payments anyway) so May's Tories will still get the Unionist vote there
I think you are right. I don't think London or Southern England house prices compute elsewhere in the UK. People down here have accepted silly money as normal.
When the vote actually happens it will be built around leadership and who is better regarded to handle critical issues, major events and the overall economy.
Indeed, I predict the only small winner from this will be Tim Farron, not Jeremy Corbyn, with the LDs probably winning Kingston and Surbiton, Twickenham, Lewes, Oxford West and Abingdon, Bath and Cheltenham post Tory manifesto but May can still get a 100+ majority from net gains from Labour north of Watford and from the SNP in Scotland relative to 2015 even if the Tory share goes down a little in the South compared to what Cameron got
I have a horrible feeling TMay is gonna come out of this with a barely increased majority. Maybe 20-40 seats in front. A total waste of time.
She will be severely weakened, and our Brexit deal will be considerably worse, and we will all live in fear of a still Corbynized Labour taking over in 2022.
She is a twat.
I think we're still looking at ca. 30 gains from labour and 10 gains in Scotland/Wales. With less than 10 losses that would be a majority of 60-70 which is pretty good, but not the 83/97 style landslide many were hoping for. The manifesto was a serious misstep.
What is more prefential? A landslide result on the back of a manifesto that ties the Government's hands in the ability have a free hand in taking economic decisions in the best interests of the country. Or a solid majority that doesn't restrict the Government at all?
The former. Worry about the other stuff later, get into power first. At least that's the Tory party I joined.
You what? I was giving you a choice between a landslide result and a solid majority. Where does "getting into power" come into it?
A majority of 60-70 may not be enough for some of the Brexit votes we have coming. How will the government get staying in the CFP area through Parliament were it required as part of a Brexit deal which enabled full free trade in goods and services?
And why would it want to when the manifesto explicitly states we are leaving the CFP?
My point is that there are going to be a lot of tough compromises coming and a 130 majority would serve the country a lot better than a 70 majority. Especially when one takes into account that Labour aren't going to be as useless as they are currently.
Comments
What is the point of our Stasi if they don't snoop on anti-establishment people?
We know they infiltrated all sorts of protest movements.
All together now;
"No surrender to the IRA"
They do seem to be making mistakes and struggling with their messaging though, seemingly relying on Corbyn and Co's lack of credibility to trump all.
In the end people will go for the safest option with Brexit, the economy and handling the SNP. It will trump all the individual little policy pieces.
https://twitter.com/dailymirror/status/865470653951909889
No it isnt
Time for sleep...
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/05/lord-ashcroft-vote-labour-and-get-a-free-kitten-my-general-election-focus-groups-with-three-weeks-to-go.html
Tories might get a 40 or 50 seat majority...
I like one person noted that Corbyn is not a spin free politician, referencing the train incident. He does it less than most, he is often understated, but he does spin.
Gin,lucky I am in london tomorrow(Wembley),don't worry @Topping,we West Yorkshire folk only there a couple of hours.
But the Tory one has pissed off the right and seemingly the left don't like it either, so not a great document in that respect, whereas Labour's has encouraged the Corbyn lovers and the loyalists, and anyone who hadn't already left was resigned to it even if they did hate it. So only one side would be damaged by their manifesto/
As was predicted at the start of the campaign, short of 100 majority seems highly likely. May had better have good answers for any interviews, since it is slip ups in defending their policies that are her biggest enem.y
There is literally nothing for anyone who is economically liberal, it's all regulation, intervention and big government. That's not the Tory party I signed up for.
There are, of course, no shortage of other things where Scots are given preferential treatment.
Question is can the Tories turn it around and start getting leads comfortable above 15 again? Ok, they'd be happy to win a 60-70 seat majority, but they also clearly want to seize the opportunity to get a lot more than that, to challenge in places they have not for decades, and so far no one seems to be running in fear of Corbyn - we keep being told they will, but they aren't. Ok, they won't make him PM either, but the Tory plan has been incredibly complacent - we have our voters in the bag, let's go after Labour voters who will jump at the chance to leave Jeremy. And it isn't happening.
https://twitter.com/ben4ipswich
An arch Remainer of course...
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/865674823854379010
Previous conservatives and undecideds will not vote for Corbyn no matter what
In fact as far as Brexit is concerned Corbyn might be a better bet to deliver a full Brexit than wishy washy May... He's been leave for 40 years, was half-hearted for remain in the referendum, called for A50 to be invoked on the morning after the referendum (none of the messing around that we've had under the Tories) and the platform he's standing for election on could only be achieved once we've left the EU, so...
If Davidson wants to keep the fuel allowance then she should say she would raise tax to pay for it.
BTW that's MY theory, not Graham Hancock's! He thinks it points to our current astronomical epoch for some reason, ie. a time capsule of sorts.
And by the way what are Corbyn's IHT proposals and where are his social care ones
And Ruth Davidson comes across as much a shrill, bossy, always demanding Scotswoman as Nicola Sturgeon.
Maybe more so.
Not so popular on an open gambling forum. Posters on this site tend to be (at least moderately) socially liberal and unreligious.
Large parts of the country aren't. A significant chunk of the electorate wants the government to ban/place heavy restrictions on socially undesirable stuff like gambling.
I recon that's what's comin'
That doesn't mean it is a bad policy or her plans are bad of course,
If she ends up with a barely increased majority, say 20-40, this will have been a waste of time but at least she didn't just say it was all sunshine and 250 billion investment. If she gets 50-70 that's probably best as it will not be so comfortable she can sit on her laurels for 5 years.
If she misses out on a 100+ majority because she dared to tell people they had to pay more to cover a crisis in social care and that winter fuel payments cannot be borne in these circumstances, then my respect for her will have gone up, since she will have mentioned something likely to upset likely voters so that she had a mandate to do it after a win, rather than be forced to spring a nasty surprise on them afterwards.
The Conservatives need to point out that if Scotland wants WFA then they will have to raise extra taxes to pay for it.
No more gathering winter fuel for Auld Grannies.
Just crank the heating up to 10 and collect the cash from England.
Marvellous.
Contrast and compare to Labour: You may hate Corbyn, but you probably like the idea of renationalising the railiways (for example).
The problem with May's manifesto is it has lots of individual things to dislike but not many things to like.
But then my vote doesn't matter, it's a safe Tory seat, and it is perhaps improbable that my views match with the crucial swing voters in Con-Lab seats across the midlands, north and Wales.
And calm down
I know its late but really-what is the story-"the Scots get extra sweeties"-well strike me down with a tenner-is there a tax payer in England who expects anything different ?
When the vote actually happens it will be built around leadership and who is better regarded to handle critical issues, major events and the overall economy.
Night all.
[pretends to shoot an invisible target]
Normal service was resumed a few days later after the result.
She was suffering from dementia and the council was insisting the house was sold to cover her costs.
She passed quicker than we expected following the death of her husband - but we seriously expected only to be left with 23k between her children.
Those children see that this policy gives other families the ability to retain more.
I tell them about some of the comment's on here and they just don't get it.
In my office not one person has said anything negative about this budget.
Labours budget resulted in derision and laughter.
No one cared about the Lib Dems budget.
One of my colleagues said she couldn't believe it but her husband was going to vote tory for first time.
Lets wait and see but this site seriously over reacts to everything .
Christ, it wasn't that long ago a bunch of pb'ers were convinced that a nuclear war with North Korea was just around the corner.
Not enough people will vote for Labour, their campaigning and manifesto are to shore up core vote.
They will be further from power after the election than they are today.
That is all.
Grow a pair and calm down,
And what further bribes are tossed to Scotland at the next election and then the next ?
Not exactly a United Kingdom is it.
So stop being so schizophrenic. Tough though it may me.