1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
Well get your money on with an LD sell bet on the spreads.
If you sell at 15 and they get 5 you win ten times your stake
Selling Lib Dems on the spreads seems incredibly dangerous to me. There is a limited amount that can be won if you're right but if for some reason the Lib Dems suddenly surged there is a very long tail of what can be lost.
Selling Lib Dems is probably safer done on a straight over/under bar level I would have thought.
Agreed. I closed my sell of LDs a while back at a small profit. I think they're going to do badly but the risk in selling them now is huge.
Seat Loss LD 'very likely', SNP seat loss 'probable'. Greens only as seat loss 'possible', but I think that's a change - predicting a narrow Lab win.
Still putting Bristol West as a possible LD gain, which surprises me, as I rarely see it elsewhere on the list of potentials like Cambridge, Bemondsey or Bath for instance. I'm pessimistic about their changes of holding some seats, but I think they'll be closer in a few than this model suggests, which is not close at all.
I just don't see how the Tories lose Dumfriesshire. Surely not?
Would be surprised to see Lucas lose in Brighton.
Me too, but I'd like it. Too many give her an easy ride because it's 'nice' to have a Green. I want as many parties as possible in parliament, but it's a tough world out there.
47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.
I now think the LDs will pick up four Scottish seats: O&S, CS&ER, Edinburgh West and either Dunbartonshire East or Fife NE.
I think that is a very brave forecast on current polling. My guess would be 2 max.
The LDs are polling better in Scotland now than last year, while the SNP is polling worse. Last year proved that unionists would vote tactically for the LDs in Scotland.
I would point out that in the lists last year in Scotland, the LDs polled just FIVE PERCENT, and that got them two gains (Edinburgh West and Fife NE), and one close (Caithness). They also increased their vote share 14% in Argyll and Bute.
Scottish voters vote tactically in a way English voters do not.
Surely Tory MP's aren't going to vote to take the cold fuel payment off their own voters while keeping it going for Scotland?
You do realise that it can get a damn sight colder up here in the winter compared to the rest of the UK? Just a few winters ago we had weeks of extremely low temperatures day and night.
Surely Tory MP's aren't going to vote to take the cold fuel payment off their own voters while keeping it going for Scotland?
They'll synchronise the withdrawal date in England with the transfer of the power to Scotland.
No chance that the British govt will vote to have one rule for England and another for Scotland.
Even so this is really toxic stuff for the Tories and May now...
Toxic because they are actually admitting to taking stuff away from people?
Yes. The Baby Boomers are addicted to their perks... And to add insult to injury she's allowing Scottish baby boomers to keep all their perks while taking it off her own voters.
1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
Norfolk North is surely a "likely to lose" rather than a dead cert. Con + 66% * UKIP is only just ahead of LDs.
And Leeds NW is against Labour, and the LDs did very well in council elections there last year. So, while it's a toss up, I wouldn't put it as a probable.
I think you need to look at some of the massive swings the LDs got last year in Holyrood. In Edinburgh West the LDs increased their vote share 14%. In Argyll and Bute and Fife NE, it was 15%.
Surely Tory MP's aren't going to vote to take the cold fuel payment off their own voters while keeping it going for Scotland?
They'll synchronise the withdrawal date in England with the transfer of the power to Scotland.
No chance that the British govt will vote to have one rule for England and another for Scotland.
Even so this is really toxic stuff for the Tories and May now...
Toxic because they are actually admitting to taking stuff away from people?
Yes. The Baby Boomers are addicted to their perks... And to add insult to injury she's allowing Scottish baby boomers to keep all their perks while taking it off her own voters.
If ever there was an election where the Tories could risk to anger the boomers a little, it is this one - they are so far ahead, they can afford to lose a few (even if they would prefer not to lose them).
47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.
I now think the LDs will pick up four Scottish seats: O&S, CS&ER, Edinburgh West and either Dunbartonshire East or Fife NE.
I think that is a very brave forecast on current polling. My guess would be 2 max.
The LDs are polling better in Scotland now than last year, while the SNP is polling worse. Last year proved that unionists would vote tactically for the LDs in Scotland.
I would point out that in the lists last year in Scotland, the LDs polled just FIVE PERCENT, and that got them two gains (Edinburgh West and Fife NE), and one close (Caithness). They also increased their vote share 14% in Argyll and Bute.
Scottish voters vote tactically in a way English voters do not.
The Council result in the Edinburgh Almond ward is simply mind boggling if you don't understand what is going on.
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
"Scotch" meaning whisky is an Americanism. In GB it is called "whisky". OTOH I think scotch eggs are scotch, not Scottish.
Yes, I knew about scotch/whisky, but its an Americanism that is widely recognised here. Not sure about scotch eggs, or scotch mist for that matter, but no way I'm having Scotch for the people of Scotland!
Quote from Theuniondivvie 1151 yesterday: "The need to avoid the possibility of some ordinary Scotch person being seen to tell Tessy to giruy is positively neurotic."
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
"Scotch" meaning whisky is an Americanism. In GB it is called "whisky". OTOH I think scotch eggs are scotch, not Scottish.
Yes, I knew about scotch/whisky, but its an Americanism that is widely recognised here. Not sure about scotch eggs, or scotch mist for that matter, but no way I'm having Scotch for the people of Scotland!
Quote from Theuniondivvie 1151 yesterday: "The need to avoid the possibility of some ordinary Scotch person being seen to tell Tessy to giruy is positively neurotic."
1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
Norfolk North is surely a "likely to lose" rather than a dead cert. Con + 66% * UKIP is only just ahead of LDs.
And Leeds NW is against Labour, and the LDs did very well in council elections there last year. So, while it's a toss up, I wouldn't put it as a probable.
I think you need to look at some of the massive swings the LDs got last year in Holyrood. In Edinburgh West the LDs increased their vote share 14%. In Argyll and Bute and Fife NE, it was 15%.
I was going down the list of LD highest vote share - Edinburgh West wasn't in top 15, but it does seem that everyone is expecting it to be a LD gain, and I have no reason to doubt that. North East Fife is the same. I do expect them to win one, possibly both of those.
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
"Scotch" meaning whisky is an Americanism. In GB it is called "whisky". OTOH I think scotch eggs are scotch, not Scottish.
Yes, I knew about scotch/whisky, but its an Americanism that is widely recognised here. Not sure about scotch eggs, or scotch mist for that matter, but no way I'm having Scotch for the people of Scotland!
Quote from Theuniondivvie 1151 yesterday: "The need to avoid the possibility of some ordinary Scotch person being seen to tell Tessy to giruy is positively neurotic."
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
I was setting out to troll certain others. You, rather than intended prey, kicked the tripwire instead. My apologies PtP.
Edit: FF43 is a late consolation scalp. That'll do
The English have a well earned reputation for ignorance and discourtesy in these matters. It jars with me similarly when I hear people refer to Southern Ireland when they clear mean the Republic, or Eire. Cork and Donegal are both in the Republic, but Donegal is in the north.
Ignorance of geography is forgivable but of manners? I'm less sure.
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
"Scotch" meaning whisky is an Americanism. In GB it is called "whisky". OTOH I think scotch eggs are scotch, not Scottish.
Yes, I knew about scotch/whisky, but its an Americanism that is widely recognised here. Not sure about scotch eggs, or scotch mist for that matter, but no way I'm having Scotch for the people of Scotland!
Quote from Theuniondivvie 1151 yesterday: "The need to avoid the possibility of some ordinary Scotch person being seen to tell Tessy to giruy is positively neurotic."
Erm, surely that shows they have thought it through, otherwise they would have just abolished it outright. A fairer way of doing it would be to set the rate of the allowance based on where you live, and adjust the means testing threshold.
All this social care stuff magnifies the deep rooted probelms with the way politics is run in this country. A difficult and apparently unpopular policy is shot down in flames in an instant, yet it is a very necessary proposal, even if it is not perfect - and no system where pay is required could ever be.
I applaud the Tories for putting this in their manifesto, I applaud them for being prepared to upset their core vote, and I applaud them for having the guts to start off an extremely inconvenient discussion that should have happened decades ago.
It may leave conventional wisdom scatching its head - but I always remember Tony Blair saying he wished he had gone much further on welfare reforms when he was pulling in massive majorities. He didn't, and we are where we are now, where everyone - working or otherwise - expects to be propped up, bailed out, subsidised - by everyone else.
I genuinely feel sorry for May and the Tories, because they are trying to do the right thing with this, and no matter what they had proposed, it would have been dismantled by opposition parties and the media.
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
I was setting out to troll certain others. You, rather than intended prey, kicked the tripwire instead. My apologies PtP.
Edit: FF43 is a late consolation scalp. That'll do
The English have a well earned reputation for ignorance and discourtesy in these matters. It jars with me similarly when I hear people refer to Southern Ireland
Really? I don't know that personally I've ever heard someone refer to the Republic that way. I don't doubt you that it has happened, but is it really in any way common?
Erm, surely that shows they have thought it through, otherwise they would have just abolished it outright. A fairer way of doing it would be to set the rate of the allowance based on where you live, and adjust the means testing threshold.
Complicated means testing just puts up the cost of the policy and reduces its desirability.
Erm, surely that shows they have thought it through, otherwise they would have just abolished it outright. A fairer way of doing it would be to set the rate of the allowance based on where you live, and adjust the means testing threshold.
Complicated means testing just puts up the cost of the policy and reduces its desirability.
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
I was setting out to troll certain others. You, rather than intended prey, kicked the tripwire instead. My apologies PtP.
Edit: FF43 is a late consolation scalp. That'll do
The English have a well earned reputation for ignorance and discourtesy in these matters. It jars with me similarly when I hear people refer to Southern Ireland
Really? I don't know that personally I've ever heard someone refer to the Republic that way. I don't doubt you that it has happened, but is it really in any way common?
Seriously? In my experience, yes. But then I'm a Cockney kid. We're a bit rough around the edges down here.
I didn't take that message at all. There is a totally different way of looking at it.
But don't tell our esteemed former member for Broxtowe that Corbyn is an armoured and suited fifth columnist who murders his wife through carelessness and brutally tortures his own daughter. He might just have a meltdown and make a load of lies up while curiously, accusing his target of lying...
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
I was setting out to troll certain others. You, rather than intended prey, kicked the tripwire instead. My apologies PtP.
Edit: FF43 is a late consolation scalp. That'll do
The English have a well earned reputation for ignorance and discourtesy in these matters. It jars with me similarly when I hear people refer to Southern Ireland when they clear mean the Republic, or Eire. Cork and Donegal are both in the Republic, but Donegal is in the north.
Ignorance of geography is forgivable but of manners? I'm less sure.
I hadn't really thought of "Southern Ireland" as being discourteous.
With grateful thanks I shall add that to my list of background insults and trolls.
All this social care stuff magnifies the deep rooted probelms with the way politics is run in this country. A difficult and apparently unpopular policy is shot down in flames in an instant, yet it is a very necessary proposal, even if it is not perfect - and no system where pay is required could ever be.
I applaud the Tories for putting this in their manifesto, I applaud them for being prepared to upset their core vote, and I applaud them for having the guts to start off an extremely inconvenient discussion that should have happened decades ago.
.
The policy has made me more inclined to support them. We're in a tough situation in many areas, it is quite probable addressing them will require some level of painful choice to be realistic, though I'd need to think about it some more.
All this social care stuff magnifies the deep rooted probelms with the way politics is run in this country. A difficult and apparently unpopular policy is shot down in flames in an instant, yet it is a very necessary proposal, even if it is not perfect - and no system where pay is required could ever be.
I applaud the Tories for putting this in their manifesto, I applaud them for being prepared to upset their core vote, and I applaud them for having the guts to start off an extremely inconvenient discussion that should have happened decades ago.
It may leave conventional wisdom scatching its head - but I always remember Tony Blair saying he wished he had gone much further on welfare reforms when he was pulling in massive majorities. He didn't, and we are where we are now, where everyone - working or otherwise - expects to be propped up, bailed out, subsidised - by everyone else.
I genuinely feel sorry for May and the Tories, because they are trying to do the right thing with this, and no matter what they had proposed, it would have been dismantled by opposition parties and the media.
Yes, well said.
This is really starting to annoy me now, all those screaming about this never came close to breaching the subject in their own manifestos. Cynical opportunism and the media are letting them get away with it.
Erm, surely that shows they have thought it through, otherwise they would have just abolished it outright. A fairer way of doing it would be to set the rate of the allowance based on where you live, and adjust the means testing threshold.
They should've just left it to Scot Gov to deal with like Bed tax, Rape clause etc
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
"Scotch" meaning whisky is an Americanism. In GB it is called "whisky". OTOH I think scotch eggs are scotch, not Scottish.
Yes, I knew about scotch/whisky, but its an Americanism that is widely recognised here. Not sure about scotch eggs, or scotch mist for that matter, but no way I'm having Scotch for the people of Scotland!
Quote from Theuniondivvie 1151 yesterday: "The need to avoid the possibility of some ordinary Scotch person being seen to tell Tessy to giruy is positively neurotic."
Well, from what I'm learning here tonite I should guess Divvie was being deliberately provocative, so no need for comment.
Erm, surely that shows they have thought it through, otherwise they would have just abolished it outright. A fairer way of doing it would be to set the rate of the allowance based on where you live, and adjust the means testing threshold.
They should've just left it to Scot Gov to deal with like Bed tax, Rape clause etc
Surely Tory MP's aren't going to vote to take the cold fuel payment off their own voters while keeping it going for Scotland?
You do realise that it can get a damn sight colder up here in the winter compared to the rest of the UK? Just a few winters ago we had weeks of extremely low temperatures day and night.
I had the same in Gloucestershire in 2009/10 and 2010/11 where in both years for over two months the temperature never rose above -3 and I had to keep the central heating on all the time (this being in the days before I had a house with a stove).
I was unemployed at the time and the experience of finding the money to pay my gas bill was - interesting.
Just please remember that while Scotland is colder on average it's not the only place that has had long-term low temperatures in the recent past.
Erm, surely that shows they have thought it through, otherwise they would have just abolished it outright. A fairer way of doing it would be to set the rate of the allowance based on where you live, and adjust the means testing threshold.
I think your second sentence contradicts your first. "Scotland is colder" is relevant to keep it/abolish it debates, and to plans for tiered payments based on lower minimum temperatures being achieved, but what is relevant to the means test/universal debate is money, not temperature. "Scotland is stingier" is the message I am getting.
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
I was setting out to troll certain others. You, rather than intended prey, kicked the tripwire instead. My apologies PtP.
Edit: FF43 is a late consolation scalp. That'll do
The English have a well earned reputation for ignorance and discourtesy in these matters. It jars with me similarly when I hear people refer to Southern Ireland when they clear mean the Republic, or Eire. Cork and Donegal are both in the Republic, but Donegal is in the north.
Ignorance of geography is forgivable but of manners? I'm less sure.
I hadn't really thought of "Southern Ireland" as being discourteous.
With grateful thanks I shall add that to my list of background insults and trolls.
Well it's not unless you're doing it deliberately or you know but can't take the trouble to get it right. When I've heard it (and I have heard it a lot) it's generally down to genuine ignorance. Once it's pointed out, it isn't difficult to get right.
I applaud the Tories for putting this in their manifesto, I applaud them for being prepared to upset their core vote, and I applaud them for having the guts to start off an extremely inconvenient discussion that should have happened decades ago.
.
The policy has made me more inclined to support them. We're in a tough situation in many areas, it is quite probable addressing them will require some level of painful choice to be realistic, though I'd need to think about it some more.
All this social care stuff magnifies the deep rooted probelms with the way politics is run in this country. A difficult and apparently unpopular policy is shot down in flames in an instant, yet it is a very necessary proposal, even if it is not perfect - and no system where pay is required could ever be.
I applaud the Tories for putting this in their manifesto, I applaud them for being prepared to upset their core vote, and I applaud them for having the guts to start off an extremely inconvenient discussion that should have happened decades ago.
It may leave conventional wisdom scatching its head - but I always remember Tony Blair saying he wished he had gone much further on welfare reforms when he was pulling in massive majorities. He didn't, and we are where we are now, where everyone - working or otherwise - expects to be propped up, bailed out, subsidised - by everyone else.
I genuinely feel sorry for May and the Tories, because they are trying to do the right thing with this, and no matter what they had proposed, it would have been dismantled by opposition parties and the media.
It's easier to have guts about this sort of thing when you're 20 points ahead in the polls. There's no way this policy would have seen the light of day this side of the election if they were neck and neck.
The paradox of Blair's position is that if he had set out a more radical platform in his manifestos, he may not have had such large majorities to enact them.
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
I was setting out to troll certain others. You, rather than intended prey, kicked the tripwire instead. My apologies PtP.
Edit: FF43 is a late consolation scalp. That'll do
The English have a well earned reputation for ignorance and discourtesy in these matters. It jars with me similarly when I hear people refer to Southern Ireland when they clear mean the Republic, or Eire. Cork and Donegal are both in the Republic, but Donegal is in the north.
Ignorance of geography is forgivable but of manners? I'm less sure.
I hadn't really thought of "Southern Ireland" as being discourteous.
With grateful thanks I shall add that to my list of background insults and trolls.
Well it's not unless you're doing it deliberately or you know but can't take the trouble to get it right. When I've heard it (and I have heard it a lot) it's generally down to genuine ignorance. Once it's pointed out, it isn't difficult to get right.
It has always amused me that the most northerly point in Ireland is in what most British people call 'Southern Ireland'.
Erm, surely that shows they have thought it through, otherwise they would have just abolished it outright. A fairer way of doing it would be to set the rate of the allowance based on where you live, and adjust the means testing threshold.
They should've just left it to Scot Gov to deal with like Bed tax, Rape clause etc
That is what they are doing!
Universal Credit item so I think will be UK funded
"Eight committees investigated the allegations and published reports, finding no evidence of fraud or scientific misconduct." "The Science and Technology Select Committee inquiry reported on 31 March 2010 that it had found that "the scientific reputation of Professor Jones and CRU remains intact".
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
I was setting out to troll certain others. You, rather than intended prey, kicked the tripwire instead. My apologies PtP.
Edit: FF43 is a late consolation scalp. That'll do
The English have a well earned reputation for ignorance and discourtesy in these matters. It jars with me similarly when I hear people refer to Southern Ireland when they clear mean the Republic, or Eire. Cork and Donegal are both in the Republic, but Donegal is in the north.
Ignorance of geography is forgivable but of manners? I'm less sure.
I hadn't really thought of "Southern Ireland" as being discourteous.
With grateful thanks I shall add that to my list of background insults and trolls.
I understand that a cracking way to troll posh Irish (Republic of) protestants is to say "lovely marching weather" when you meet them on fine summer days.
1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
Norfolk North is surely a "likely to lose" rather than a dead cert. Con + 66% * UKIP is only just ahead of LDs.
And Leeds NW is against Labour, and the LDs did very well in council elections there last year. So, while it's a toss up, I wouldn't put it as a probable.
I think you need to look at some of the massive swings the LDs got last year in Holyrood. In Edinburgh West the LDs increased their vote share 14%. In Argyll and Bute and Fife NE, it was 15%.
I was going down the list of LD highest vote share - Edinburgh West wasn't in top 15, but it does seem that everyone is expecting it to be a LD gain, and I have no reason to doubt that. North East Fife is the same. I do expect them to win one, possibly both of those.
Re Edinburgh West, it wasn't close in Holyrood last year, and the LDs did very well in the locals last month. Oh yes, and there's no incumbency bonus because the previous SNP MP was kicked out the party and is being prosecuted.
Erm, surely that shows they have thought it through, otherwise they would have just abolished it outright. A fairer way of doing it would be to set the rate of the allowance based on where you live, and adjust the means testing threshold.
They should've just left it to Scot Gov to deal with like Bed tax, Rape clause etc
That is what they are doing!
Universal Credit item so I think will be UK funded
See Islam's tweets earlier, it is soon to be a devolved power.
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
I was setting out to troll certain others. You, rather than intended prey, kicked the tripwire instead. My apologies PtP.
Edit: FF43 is a late consolation scalp. That'll do
The English have a well earned reputation for ignorance and discourtesy in these matters. It jars with me similarly when I hear people refer to Southern Ireland when they clear mean the Republic, or Eire. Cork and Donegal are both in the Republic, but Donegal is in the north.
Ignorance of geography is forgivable but of manners? I'm less sure.
I hadn't really thought of "Southern Ireland" as being discourteous.
With grateful thanks I shall add that to my list of background insults and trolls.
Well it's not unless you're doing it deliberately or you know but can't take the trouble to get it right. When I've heard it (and I have heard it a lot) it's generally down to genuine ignorance. Once it's pointed out, it isn't difficult to get right.
It has always amused me that the most northerly point in Ireland is in what most British people call 'Southern Ireland'.
Surely Tory MP's aren't going to vote to take the cold fuel payment off their own voters while keeping it going for Scotland?
They'll synchronise the withdrawal date in England with the transfer of the power to Scotland.
No chance that the British govt will vote to have one rule for England and another for Scotland.
Even so this is really toxic stuff for the Tories and May now...
Toxic because they are actually admitting to taking stuff away from people?
Yes. The Baby Boomers are addicted to their perks... And to add insult to injury she's allowing Scottish baby boomers to keep all their perks while taking it off her own voters.
I'm more optimistic, based on my conversations with people of my parents ' generation. Many of them know the perks are unjustifiable.
Completely OT. A producer friend has just moved to Dalian in China. He's just sent me this. I don't know whether anyone's been there but I was expecting something semi-primitive.
Re the Scotch debate: just tell a Scotsman how Scotch Tape got its name.
The use of the term Scotch in the name was a pejorative meaning "stingy" in the 1920s and 1930s. The brand name Scotch came about around 1925 while Richard Drew was testing his first masking tape to determine how much adhesive he needed to add. The bodyshop painter became frustrated with the sample masking tape and exclaimed, "Take this tape back to those Scotch bosses of yours and tell them to put more adhesive on it!" The name was soon applied to the entire line of 3M tapes.
47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.
Anyone spotted a bigger vote drop than LD in Edinburgh North and Leith?
47 LD lost deposits in Scotland in 2015 the books says - I wonder if that will be the same this time, even as they might get 3 MPs if they are lucky? Their overall voteshare is static, so it is highly concentrated, and with potentially even more tactical voting dissuading potential LDs to go back to them in some seats, presumably plenty more lost deposits to come.
Anyone spotted a bigger vote drop than LD in Edinburgh North and Leith?
Brent Central, over 35%.
Biggest Tory drop was Clacton, then the Bradfords.
Biggest Lab drops were all in Scotland, some only just less than the LD Brent Central drop.
But Brent Central is a humdinger, especially as they were in first place.
I had some seats near Hereford with gargantuan losses
Hereford. LD MP going into 2010. Coming out of 2015, 4th place and genuine we don't care candidate. Loss of c.75% of votes.
"Eight committees investigated the allegations and published reports, finding no evidence of fraud or scientific misconduct." "The Science and Technology Select Committee inquiry reported on 31 March 2010 that it had found that "the scientific reputation of Professor Jones and CRU remains intact".
Wikipedia is a quick reference for matters of fact, not a substitute for independent thought. Tell us in your own words how "using a trick to hide a decline" is ever permissible in a scientific paper.
However appalling Theresa May and the Tories show themselves to be we're still faced by the brick wall of Corbyn. It is a rare example of a situation meriting the word Kafkaesque. The only solution is not to vote or waste it on a no-hoper.
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
I was setting out to troll certain others. You, rather than intended prey, kicked the tripwire instead. My apologies PtP.
Edit: FF43 is a late consolation scalp. That'll do
The English have a well earned reputation for ignorance and discourtesy in these matters. It jars with me similarly when I hear people refer to Southern Ireland when they clear mean the Republic, or Eire. Cork and Donegal are both in the Republic, but Donegal is in the north.
Ignorance of geography is forgivable but of manners? I'm less sure.
I hadn't really thought of "Southern Ireland" as being discourteous.
With grateful thanks I shall add that to my list of background insults and trolls.
Well it's not unless you're doing it deliberately or you know but can't take the trouble to get it right. When I've heard it (and I have heard it a lot) it's generally down to genuine ignorance. Once it's pointed out, it isn't difficult to get right.
It has always amused me that the most northerly point in Ireland is in what most British people call 'Southern Ireland'.
Most British people call it "Southern Ireland"?
Well, to be technically correct in my experience which admittedly is not exhaustive they call it the 'South' of Ireland. Or sometimes just 'Ireland' which in its own way is even worse...
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
I was setting out to troll certain others. You, rather than intended prey, kicked the tripwire instead. My apologies PtP.
Edit: FF43 is a late consolation scalp. That'll do
The English have a well earned reputation for ignorance and discourtesy in these matters. It jars with me similarly when I hear people refer to Southern Ireland when they clear mean the Republic, or Eire. Cork and Donegal are both in the Republic, but Donegal is in the north.
Ignorance of geography is forgivable but of manners? I'm less sure.
I hadn't really thought of "Southern Ireland" as being discourteous.
With grateful thanks I shall add that to my list of background insults and trolls.
Well it's not unless you're doing it deliberately or you know but can't take the trouble to get it right. When I've heard it (and I have heard it a lot) it's generally down to genuine ignorance. Once it's pointed out, it isn't difficult to get right.
It has always amused me that the most northerly point in Ireland is in what most British people call 'Southern Ireland'.
Most British people call it "Southern Ireland"?
Well, to be technically correct in my experience which admittedly is not exhaustive they call it the 'South' of Ireland. Or sometimes just 'Ireland' which in its own way is even worse...
So, OK, lots of pitfalls for us to avoid, so WTF are we meant to call it?
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
I was setting out to troll certain others. You, rather than intended prey, kicked the tripwire instead. My apologies PtP.
Edit: FF43 is a late consolation scalp. That'll do
The English have a well earned reputation for ignorance and discourtesy in these matters. It jars with me similarly when I hear people refer to Southern Ireland when they clear mean the Republic, or Eire. Cork and Donegal are both in the Republic, but Donegal is in the north.
Ignorance of geography is forgivable but of manners? I'm less sure.
I hadn't really thought of "Southern Ireland" as being discourteous.
With grateful thanks I shall add that to my list of background insults and trolls.
Well it's not unless you're doing it deliberately or you know but can't take the trouble to get it right. When I've heard it (and I have heard it a lot) it's generally down to genuine ignorance. Once it's pointed out, it isn't difficult to get right.
It has always amused me that the most northerly point in Ireland is in what most British people call 'Southern Ireland'.
Most British people call it "Southern Ireland"?
Well, to be technically correct in my experience which admittedly is not exhaustive they call it the 'South' of Ireland. Or sometimes just 'Ireland' which in its own way is even worse...
Calling it "Ireland" is worsE? That's the official name of the state!
1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
And Leeds NW is against Labour, and the LDs did very well in council elections there last year. So, while it's a toss up, I wouldn't put it as a probable.
I wouldn't rule a Conservative gain in Leeds NW - of the four wards in the constituency Adel is a Conservatives stronghold and Otley has been won by them many times before (and demographically should be favourable to May). Headingly is hopeless for the Conservatives but how many students will actually vote next month and Weetwood ward should also provide more Conservative votes if worked.
With the likes of Elmet, Selby, Harrogate and Pudsey safe for the Conservatives at this election they're able to challenge in Leeds NW and/or Leeds NE and I'd say that Leeds NW is the more likely gain.
"Eight committees investigated the allegations and published reports, finding no evidence of fraud or scientific misconduct." "The Science and Technology Select Committee inquiry reported on 31 March 2010 that it had found that "the scientific reputation of Professor Jones and CRU remains intact".
CRU failed to release data to another scientist (a perfectly reputable one at the University of Oxford).
It is one of the fundamental tenets of science that data are freely available to test models and analysis.
"Eight committees investigated the allegations and published reports, finding no evidence of fraud or scientific misconduct." "The Science and Technology Select Committee inquiry reported on 31 March 2010 that it had found that "the scientific reputation of Professor Jones and CRU remains intact".
CRU failed to release data to another scientist (a perfectly reputable one at the University of Oxford).
It is one of the fundamental tenets of science that data are freely available to test models and analysis.
Not sure how your anecdote is relevant to logical's point, and most scientific papers aren't accessible without paying a subscription to the journal anyway.
OK: it seems that the 1937 Constitution says the country is called Ireland (or the Irish for Ireland, Eire). Under the Republic of Ireland Act 1948 s.2 "It is hereby declared that the description of the State shall be the Republic of Ireland." However, loopily this is regarded as being a description only, not a name, because the name is enshrined in the constitution which can't be altered by statute. So that's all nice and clear. The take-home message is: call it what you want, if you think you can handle the resulting knee-cappings.
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
I was setting out to troll certain others. You, rather than intended prey, kicked the tripwire instead. My apologies PtP.
Edit: FF43 is a late consolation scalp. That'll do
The English have a well earned reputation for ignorance and discourtesy in these matters. It jars with me similarly when I hear people refer to Southern Ireland when they clear mean the Republic, or Eire. Cork and Donegal are both in the Republic, but Donegal is in the north.
Ignorance of geography is forgivable but of manners? I'm less sure.
I hadn't really thought of "Southern Ireland" as being discourteous.
With grateful thanks I shall add that to my list of background insults and trolls.
Well it's not unless you're doing it deliberately or you know but can't take the trouble to get it right. When I've heard it (and I have heard it a lot) it's generally down to genuine ignorance. Once it's pointed out, it isn't difficult to get right.
It has always amused me that the most northerly point in Ireland is in what most British people call 'Southern Ireland'.
Most British people call it "Southern Ireland"?
Well, to be technically correct in my experience which admittedly is not exhaustive they call it the 'South' of Ireland. Or sometimes just 'Ireland' which in its own way is even worse...
So, OK, lots of pitfalls for us to avoid, so WTF are we meant to call it?
The Republic of Ireland, or the Irish Republic (which incidentally @RobD is the official name of the state).
OK: it seems that the 1937 Constitution says the country is called Ireland (or the Irish for Ireland, Eire). Under the Republic of Ireland Act 1948 s.2 "It is hereby declared that the description of the State shall be the Republic of Ireland." However, loopily this is regarded as being a description only, not a name, because the name is enshrined in the constitution which can't be altered by statute. So that's all nice and clear. The take-home message is: call it what you want, if you think you can handle the resulting knee-cappings.
OK: it seems that the 1937 Constitution says the country is called Ireland (or the Irish for Ireland, Eire). Under the Republic of Ireland Act 1948 s.2 "It is hereby declared that the description of the State shall be the Republic of Ireland." However, loopily this is regarded as being a description only, not a name, because the name is enshrined in the constitution which can't be altered by statute. So that's all nice and clear. The take-home message is: call it what you want, if you think you can handle the resulting knee-cappings.
Wouldn't "Little Britain" be a geographically accurate name for Ireland?
I applaud the Tories for putting this in their manifesto, I applaud them for being prepared to upset their core vote, and I applaud them for having the guts to start off an extremely inconvenient discussion that should have happened decades ago.
.
The policy has made me more inclined to support them. We're in a tough situation in many areas, it is quite probable addressing them will require some level of painful choice to be realistic, though I'd need to think about it some more.
All this social care stuff magnifies the deep rooted probelms with the way politics is run in this country. A difficult and apparently unpopular policy is shot down in flames in an instant, yet it is a very necessary proposal, even if it is not perfect - and no system where pay is required could ever be.
I applaud the Tories for putting this in their manifesto, I applaud them for being prepared to upset their core vote, and I applaud them for having the guts to start off an extremely inconvenient discussion that should have happened decades ago.
It may leave conventional wisdom scatching its head - but I always remember Tony Blair saying he wished he had gone much further on welfare reforms when he was pulling in massive majorities. He didn't, and we are where we are now, where everyone - working or otherwise - expects to be propped up, bailed out, subsidised - by everyone else.
I genuinely feel sorry for May and the Tories, because they are trying to do the right thing with this, and no matter what they had proposed, it would have been dismantled by opposition parties and the media.
It's easier to have guts about this sort of thing when you're 20 points ahead in the polls. There's no way this policy would have seen the light of day this side of the election if they were neck and neck.
The paradox of Blair's position is that if he had set out a more radical platform in his manifestos, he may not have had such large majorities to enact them.
Maybe, maybe not, we'll never know for certain. Blair did express regret, though. He wasted the golden opportunity he was given by the electorate, and ended up bequeathing Labour to a succession of losers and now extremists.
The Scotch aren't grown up and mature enough to handle power yet.
For some unknown reason the adults have given them matches.
It may appear pedantic, Geoff, but it's a pet hate of mine. Scotch is a drink, the people of Scotland are Scottish.
I don't know why it jars with me - I haven't any Scottish blood in me, as far as I know - but it does.
Cheers.
I was setting out to troll certain others. You, rather than intended prey, kicked the tripwire instead. My apologies PtP.
Edit: FF43 is a late consolation scalp. That'll do
The English have a well earned reputation for ignorance and discourtesy in these matters. It jars with me similarly when I hear people refer to Southern Ireland when they clear mean the Republic, or Eire. Cork and Donegal are both in the Republic, but Donegal is in the north.
Ignorance of geography is forgivable but of manners? I'm less sure.
I hadn't really thought of "Southern Ireland" as being discourteous.
With grateful thanks I shall add that to my list of background insults and trolls.
Well it's not unless you're doing it deliberately or you know but can't take the trouble to get it right. When I've heard it (and I have heard it a lot) it's generally down to genuine ignorance. Once it's pointed out, it isn't difficult to get right.
It has always amused me that the most northerly point in Ireland is in what most British people call 'Southern Ireland'.
Most British people call it "Southern Ireland"?
Well, to be technically correct in my experience which admittedly is not exhaustive they call it the 'South' of Ireland. Or sometimes just 'Ireland' which in its own way is even worse...
So, OK, lots of pitfalls for us to avoid, so WTF are we meant to call it?
The Republic of Ireland, or the Irish Republic (which incidentally @RobD is the official name of the state).
Wikipedia disagrees with you:
There have been various names for the state that is today officially known as Ireland.
"Eight committees investigated the allegations and published reports, finding no evidence of fraud or scientific misconduct." "The Science and Technology Select Committee inquiry reported on 31 March 2010 that it had found that "the scientific reputation of Professor Jones and CRU remains intact".
CRU failed to release data to another scientist (a perfectly reputable one at the University of Oxford).
It is one of the fundamental tenets of science that data are freely available to test models and analysis.
Not sure how your anecdote is relevant to logical's point, and most scientific papers aren't accessible without paying a subscription to the journal anyway.
If you really aren't sure about that, and also don't know the difference between data and papers, best to keep quiet.
1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
And Leeds NW is against Labour, and the LDs did very well in council elections there last year. So, while it's a toss up, I wouldn't put it as a probable.
I wouldn't rule a Conservative gain in Leeds NW - of the four wards in the constituency Adel is a Conservatives stronghold and Otley has been won by them many times before (and demographically should be favourable to May). Headingly is hopeless for the Conservatives but how many students will actually vote next month and Weetwood ward should also provide more Conservative votes if worked.
With the likes of Elmet, Selby, Harrogate and Pudsey safe for the Conservatives at this election they're able to challenge in Leeds NW and/or Leeds NE and I'd say that Leeds NW is the more likely gain.
Leeds NW Con gain sound interesting. Any PBers active in Durham NW? We have family there and visited recently. Like Bishop Aucland it is split with a Con half (rural villages) and a Lab half (Consett). Like Bishop Auckland I can see it turning blue on a good night for Mother Theresa.
WASHINGTON — President Trump told Russian officials in the Oval Office this month that firing the F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, had relieved “great pressure” on him, according to a document summarizing the meeting.
“I just fired the head of the F.B.I. He was crazy, a real nut job,” Mr. Trump said, according to the document, which was read to The New York Times by an American official. “I faced great pressure because of Russia. That’s taken off.”
The law enforcement investigation into possible coordination between Russia and the Trump campaign has identified a current White House official as a significant person of interest, showing that the probe is reaching into the highest levels of government, according to people familiar with the matter.
The senior White House adviser under scrutiny by investigators is someone close to the president, according to these people, who would not further identify the official.
The revelation comes as the investigation also appears to be entering a more overtly active phase, with investigators shifting from work that has remained largely hidden from the public to conducting interviews and using a grand jury to issue subpoenas. The intensity of the probe is expected to accelerate in the coming weeks, the people said.
"Eight committees investigated the allegations and published reports, finding no evidence of fraud or scientific misconduct." "The Science and Technology Select Committee inquiry reported on 31 March 2010 that it had found that "the scientific reputation of Professor Jones and CRU remains intact".
CRU failed to release data to another scientist (a perfectly reputable one at the University of Oxford).
It is one of the fundamental tenets of science that data are freely available to test models and analysis.
Not sure how your anecdote is relevant to logical's point, and most scientific papers aren't accessible without paying a subscription to the journal anyway.
Almost all scientific papers are freely available on arXiv servers. In any case, there is a difference between the paper and the data.
If you publish publicly funded research (as CRU did), you are under an obligation from the Research Councils to release the data (and nowadays to make you paper open access)
It was the refusal to release the data to Jonathan Jones of Oxford that sparked the controversy in the first place, and drew attention to secretive practices in Climate Science.
I myself believe the evidence for anthropogenic global warming is strong -- but I certainly don’t exonerate the behaviour of the CRU.
Logical song is wrong to imply that they behaved with scientific integrity. They were cleared of fraud, but their behaviour fell far short of what is good scientific practice.
OK: it seems that the 1937 Constitution says the country is called Ireland (or the Irish for Ireland, Eire). Under the Republic of Ireland Act 1948 s.2 "It is hereby declared that the description of the State shall be the Republic of Ireland." However, loopily this is regarded as being a description only, not a name, because the name is enshrined in the constitution which can't be altered by statute. So that's all nice and clear. The take-home message is: call it what you want, if you think you can handle the resulting knee-cappings.
Wouldn't "Little Britain" be a geographically accurate name for Ireland?
Yes, that is one view of what "Great" in GB is greater than (the other theory being that Little Britain is Brittany).
"Eight committees investigated the allegations and published reports, finding no evidence of fraud or scientific misconduct." "The Science and Technology Select Committee inquiry reported on 31 March 2010 that it had found that "the scientific reputation of Professor Jones and CRU remains intact".
CRU failed to release data to another scientist (a perfectly reputable one at the University of Oxford).
It is one of the fundamental tenets of science that data are freely available to test models and analysis.
Not sure how your anecdote is relevant to logical's point, and most scientific papers aren't accessible without paying a subscription to the journal anyway.
Almost all scientific papers are freely available on arXiv servers. In any case, there is a difference between the paper and the data.
If you publish publicly funded research (as CRU did), you are under an obligation from the Research Councils to release the data (and nowadays to make you paper open access)
It was the refusal to release the data to Jonathan Jones of Oxford that sparked the controversy in the first place, and drew attention to secretive practices in Climate Science.
I myself believe the evidence for anthropogenic global warming is strong -- but I certainly don’t exonerate the beehives of the CRU.
Logical song is wrong to imply that they behaved with scientific integrity. They were cleared of fraud, but their behaviour fell far short of what is good scientific practice.
I now try and be as open as possible when publishing work. I haven't yet got to the point where I am publishing all my algorithms on github (for example), but I'm getting there.
Wikipedia also says at various times that Jeremy Corbyn is sane, that Richard Carrier is an historian, and that Holocaust Denial is not a conspiracy theory. It can say anything any silly sod with a keyboard and an agenda wants it to. I would rather have an official source.
I think also the reason for the distinction you note above is because the 1937 covered the whole of Ireland, including the six counties where the powers of the Free State had been 'suspended' in 1922, whereas the 1948 act applied to the state where the powers actually existed de facto and called that 'the Republic of Ireland.'
Wikipedia also says at various times that Jeremy Corbyn is sane, that Richard Carrier is an historian, and that Holocaust Denial is not a conspiracy theory. It can say anything any silly sod with a keyboard and an agenda wants it to. I would rather have an official source.
I think also the reason for the distinction you note above is because the 1937 covered the whole of Ireland, including the six counties where the powers of the Free State had been 'suspended' in 1922, whereas the 1948 act applied to the state where the powers actually existed de facto and called that 'the Republic of Ireland.'
That doesn't change the fact that the official name is "Ireland", and they themselves use the name in all manner of things. To say calling it such is worse than "Southern Ireland" is ridiculous.
1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
And Leeds NW is against Labour, and the LDs did very well in council elections there last year. So, while it's a toss up, I wouldn't put it as a probable.
I wouldn't rule a Conservative gain in Leeds NW - of the four wards in the constituency Adel is a Conservatives stronghold and Otley has been won by them many times before (and demographically should be favourable to May). Headingly is hopeless for the Conservatives but how many students will actually vote next month and Weetwood ward should also provide more Conservative votes if worked.
With the likes of Elmet, Selby, Harrogate and Pudsey safe for the Conservatives at this election they're able to challenge in Leeds NW and/or Leeds NE and I'd say that Leeds NW is the more likely gain.
To be honest, I would rule it out. The wrong demographics for the Tories.
Surely Tory MP's aren't going to vote to take the cold fuel payment off their own voters while keeping it going for Scotland?
They'll synchronise the withdrawal date in England with the transfer of the power to Scotland.
No chance that the British govt will vote to have one rule for England and another for Scotland.
Even so this is really toxic stuff for the Tories and May now...
Toxic because they are actually admitting to taking stuff away from people?
Yes. The Baby Boomers are addicted to their perks... And to add insult to injury she's allowing Scottish baby boomers to keep all their perks while taking it off her own voters.
I'm more optimistic, based on my conversations with people of my parents ' generation. Many of them know the perks are unjustifiable.
Just been out canvassing in Torbay. The area visited was chosen to see if the manifesto care issue was breaking through on the doorsteps.
For the most part, no. The Tory vote is holding up very well. Care was mentioned on just two doorsteps. One was concerned, but voting Tory regardless. The other was unhappy - might not vote - but likes Theresa May and wants to give her the backing for Brexit, which was the real issue motivating their vote. Suspect they will vote Tory too, in the end.
Might not be representative, but I offer it up for you to peruse the entrails.
The only person who mentioned winter fuel was a lifelong Labour man. And he only mentioned it because he couldn't quite work out why Corbyn was promising to keep it for the toffs!
Wikipedia also says at various times that Jeremy Corbyn is sane, that Richard Carrier is an historian, and that Holocaust Denial is not a conspiracy theory. It can say anything any silly sod with a keyboard and an agenda wants it to. I would rather have an official source.
I think also the reason for the distinction you note above is because the 1937 covered the whole of Ireland, including the six counties where the powers of the Free State had been 'suspended' in 1922, whereas the 1948 act applied to the state where the powers actually existed de facto and called that 'the Republic of Ireland.'
That doesn't change the fact that the official name is "Ireland", and they themselves use the name in all manner of things. To say calling it such is worse than "Southern Ireland" is ridiculous.
The point is it is not Ireland. It is the majority of Ireland. It's not the people in the Republic that might cause issues with!
"Eight committees investigated the allegations and published reports, finding no evidence of fraud or scientific misconduct." "The Science and Technology Select Committee inquiry reported on 31 March 2010 that it had found that "the scientific reputation of Professor Jones and CRU remains intact".
CRU failed to release data to another scientist (a perfectly reputable one at the University of Oxford).
It is one of the fundamental tenets of science that data are freely available to test models and analysis.
Not sure how your anecdote is relevant to logical's point, and most scientific papers aren't accessible without paying a subscription to the journal anyway.
If they are at Oxford then the Radcliffe Library (the science part of the Bod) will have a copy.
OK: it seems that the 1937 Constitution says the country is called Ireland (or the Irish for Ireland, Eire). Under the Republic of Ireland Act 1948 s.2 "It is hereby declared that the description of the State shall be the Republic of Ireland." However, loopily this is regarded as being a description only, not a name, because the name is enshrined in the constitution which can't be altered by statute. So that's all nice and clear. The take-home message is: call it what you want, if you think you can handle the resulting knee-cappings.
Wouldn't "Little Britain" be a geographically accurate name for Ireland?
That's France (or rather Lesser Britain)
Far simpler just to refer to the Pale and Beyond the Pale.
1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
I'd say winning Eastbourne is more likely than not. The current policy controversy enhances the chances. W&L is nailed on. Norfolk Nth is too close to call, not dead cert to lose. Twickenham remains an outside chance. T&Y unlikely to win. Don't write off Cambridge, although Labour's cynical pitch to students makes this more of a challenge.
I am from Eastbourne and the ex Lib Dem MP is still basically working the place full time. If hard work pays off in politics he deserves to get back in. I was back there last week and got the feeling he was in with a good shout - but small samples are a great way to get things wrong.
Surely Tory MP's aren't going to vote to take the cold fuel payment off their own voters while keeping it going for Scotland?
They'll synchronise the withdrawal date in England with the transfer of the power to Scotland.
No chance that the British govt will vote to have one rule for England and another for Scotland.
Even so this is really toxic stuff for the Tories and May now...
Toxic because they are actually admitting to taking stuff away from people?
Yes. The Baby Boomers are addicted to their perks... And to add insult to injury she's allowing Scottish baby boomers to keep all their perks while taking it off her own voters.
I'm more optimistic, based on my conversations with people of my parents ' generation. Many of them know the perks are unjustifiable.
Just been out canvassing in Torbay. The area visited was chosen to see if the manifesto care issue was breaking through on the doorsteps.
For the most part, no. The Tory vote is holding up very well. Care was mentioned on just two doorsteps. One was concerned, but voting Tory regardless. The other was unhappy - might not vote - but likes Theresa May and wants to give her the backing for Brexit, which was the real issue motivating their vote. Suspect they will vote Tory too, in the end.
Might not be representative, but I offer it up for you to peruse the entrails.
The only person who mentioned winter fuel was a lifelong Labour man. And he only mentioned it because he couldn't quite work out why Corbyn was promising to keep it for the toffs!
Your Man In The Bay
House prices round here average around £160,000 and in most cases will be pretty much the sole asset of the owner. So it's not as though they're going to lose out in a big way.
I can't see this £100,000 cap being a big vote swinger either way here or anywhere north of here outside Manchester and Leeds (especially given Corbyn's own swinging tax proposals) but I could be wrong.
It's in the south, where Labour are deader than the proverbial dodo and have been for over a decade, that it may make a difference. But I would have thought as a result the beneficiaries (if any) would be the Liberal Democrats rather than Labour. Which is why the current polls do not make much sense.
Someone on LabourList said Labour are polling 39% in England. Is this true? I can't find confirmation of this anywhere.
Labour were on 39% in England in the unweighted IPSOS-MORI poll, which used the pre-2015 methodology. However, their (probably more accurate) turnout-adjusted figures brought them down to 36%.
1 Westmorland & Lonsdale 51.5 - Won, likely to win again 2 Orkney & Shetland 41.4 - Won, likely to win again 3 Sheffield Hallam 40.0 - Won, probably going to win again 4 Norfolk North 39.1 - Won, dead cert to lose 5 Eastbourne 38.2 - Lost. Anyone know if there's a shot? Retread candidate, majority under 1000 6 Twickenham 38.0 - Lost, probably lost again. 7 Thornbury & Yate 37.9 Lost, probably lose again. (Webb's seat, not restanding) 8 Leeds North West 36.8 Won, probable loss. 9 Dunbartonshire East 36.3 Lost, possible win (lowest drop in percentage, but still not a dead cert by any means) 10 Ross, Skye & Lochaber 35.9 Lost, probably lose again- long way back 11 Lewes 35.9 Lost, probably lose again - no UKIP candidate 12 Ceredigion 35.9 Won, probably win again. 13 Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross 35.1 Loss, probably lose again - needs lots of tacticals. 14 Carshalton & Wallington 34.9 Won, probable loss. 15 Cambridge 34.9 - Loss, possible win. Smallest majority in country for Lab.
And Leeds NW is against Labour, and the LDs did very well in council elections there last year. So, while it's a toss up, I wouldn't put it as a probable.
I wouldn't rule a Conservative gain in Leeds NW - of the four wards in the constituency Adel is a Conservatives stronghold and Otley has been won by them many times before (and demographically should be favourable to May). Headingly is hopeless for the Conservatives but how many students will actually vote next month and Weetwood ward should also provide more Conservative votes if worked.
With the likes of Elmet, Selby, Harrogate and Pudsey safe for the Conservatives at this election they're able to challenge in Leeds NW and/or Leeds NE and I'd say that Leeds NW is the more likely gain.
To be honest, I would rule it out. The wrong demographics for the Tories.
The northern half of Leeds NW certainly doesn't have the wrong demographics for the Conservatives.
There's a lot more to the constituency than Headingly (which will have the lowest turnout in any case).
I'd say there's a much better chance of a Conservative gain in Leeds NW than there is in Leeds NE, Leeds E or Leeds W - all of which have shorter Conservative odds.
Comments
I would point out that in the lists last year in Scotland, the LDs polled just FIVE PERCENT, and that got them two gains (Edinburgh West and Fife NE), and one close (Caithness). They also increased their vote share 14% in Argyll and Bute.
Scottish voters vote tactically in a way English voters do not.
And Leeds NW is against Labour, and the LDs did very well in council elections there last year. So, while it's a toss up, I wouldn't put it as a probable.
I think you need to look at some of the massive swings the LDs got last year in Holyrood. In Edinburgh West the LDs increased their vote share 14%. In Argyll and Bute and Fife NE, it was 15%.
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/scottish-news/1031881/tories-say-they-wont-cut-winter-fuel-payment-in-scotland-because-of-the-chilly-weather-north-of-the-border/?CMP=Spklr-_-Editorial-_-ScottishSun-_-News-_-FBLink-_-Statement-_-TWITTER
North East Fife is the same. I do expect them to win one, possibly both of those.
Ignorance of geography is forgivable but of manners? I'm less sure.
I applaud the Tories for putting this in their manifesto, I applaud them for being prepared to upset their core vote, and I applaud them for having the guts to start off an extremely inconvenient discussion that should have happened decades ago.
It may leave conventional wisdom scatching its head - but I always remember Tony Blair saying he wished he had gone much further on welfare reforms when he was pulling in massive majorities. He didn't, and we are where we are now, where everyone - working or otherwise - expects to be propped up, bailed out, subsidised - by everyone else.
I genuinely feel sorry for May and the Tories, because they are trying to do the right thing with this, and no matter what they had proposed, it would have been dismantled by opposition parties and the media.
But don't tell our esteemed former member for Broxtowe that Corbyn is an armoured and suited fifth columnist who murders his wife through carelessness and brutally tortures his own daughter. He might just have a meltdown and make a load of lies up while curiously, accusing his target of lying...
With grateful thanks I shall add that to my list of background insults and trolls.
This is really starting to annoy me now, all those screaming about this never came close to breaching the subject in their own manifestos. Cynical opportunism and the media are letting them get away with it.
I was unemployed at the time and the experience of finding the money to pay my gas bill was - interesting.
Just please remember that while Scotland is colder on average it's not the only place that has had long-term low temperatures in the recent past.
The paradox of Blair's position is that if he had set out a more radical platform in his manifestos, he may not have had such large majorities to enact them.
Should be fun.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit_email_controversy
"Eight committees investigated the allegations and published reports, finding no evidence of fraud or scientific misconduct."
"The Science and Technology Select Committee inquiry reported on 31 March 2010 that it had found that "the scientific reputation of Professor Jones and CRU remains intact".
Trump attending a conference in Riyadh on relations between the Muslim world and the USA - what could possibly go wrong?
I really hope, for his own sake, that he's been told in no uncertain terms to not deviate one word from the script in front of him.
The use of the term Scotch in the name was a pejorative meaning "stingy" in the 1920s and 1930s. The brand name Scotch came about around 1925 while Richard Drew was testing his first masking tape to determine how much adhesive he needed to add. The bodyshop painter became frustrated with the sample masking tape and exclaimed, "Take this tape back to those Scotch bosses of yours and tell them to put more adhesive on it!" The name was soon applied to the entire line of 3M tapes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scotch_Tape#Trade_names
Take your time.
With the likes of Elmet, Selby, Harrogate and Pudsey safe for the Conservatives at this election they're able to challenge in Leeds NW and/or Leeds NE and I'd say that Leeds NW is the more likely gain.
It is one of the fundamental tenets of science that data are freely available to test models and analysis.
https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/865643021982875648
As for the predictions, that has got to be expectations management!
*runs*
There have been various names for the state that is today officially known as Ireland.
Also check the passport cover.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Names_of_the_Irish_state
We have family there and visited recently. Like Bishop Aucland it is split with a Con half (rural villages) and a Lab half (Consett). Like Bishop Auckland I can see it turning blue on a good night for Mother Theresa.
“I just fired the head of the F.B.I. He was crazy, a real nut job,” Mr. Trump said, according to the document, which was read to The New York Times by an American official. “I faced great pressure because of Russia. That’s taken off.”
Mr. Trump added, “I’m not under investigation.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/19/us/politics/trump-russia-comey.html
The senior White House adviser under scrutiny by investigators is someone close to the president, according to these people, who would not further identify the official.
The revelation comes as the investigation also appears to be entering a more overtly active phase, with investigators shifting from work that has remained largely hidden from the public to conducting interviews and using a grand jury to issue subpoenas. The intensity of the probe is expected to accelerate in the coming weeks, the people said.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russia-probe-reaches-current-white-house-official-people-familiar-with-the-case-say/2017/05/19/7685adba-3c99-11e7-9e48-c4f199710b69_story.html
If you publish publicly funded research (as CRU did), you are under an obligation from the Research Councils to release the data (and nowadays to make you paper open access)
It was the refusal to release the data to Jonathan Jones of Oxford that sparked the controversy in the first place, and drew attention to secretive practices in Climate Science.
I myself believe the evidence for anthropogenic global warming is strong -- but I certainly don’t exonerate the behaviour of the CRU.
Logical song is wrong to imply that they behaved with scientific integrity. They were cleared of fraud, but their behaviour fell far short of what is good scientific practice.
I think also the reason for the distinction you note above is because the 1937 covered the whole of Ireland, including the six counties where the powers of the Free State had been 'suspended' in 1922, whereas the 1948 act applied to the state where the powers actually existed de facto and called that 'the Republic of Ireland.'
For the most part, no. The Tory vote is holding up very well. Care was mentioned on just two doorsteps. One was concerned, but voting Tory regardless. The other was unhappy - might not vote - but likes Theresa May and wants to give her the backing for Brexit, which was the real issue motivating their vote. Suspect they will vote Tory too, in the end.
Might not be representative, but I offer it up for you to peruse the entrails.
The only person who mentioned winter fuel was a lifelong Labour man. And he only mentioned it because he couldn't quite work out why Corbyn was promising to keep it for the toffs!
Your Man In The Bay
Far simpler just to refer to the Pale and Beyond the Pale.
I can't see this £100,000 cap being a big vote swinger either way here or anywhere north of here outside Manchester and Leeds (especially given Corbyn's own swinging tax proposals) but I could be wrong.
It's in the south, where Labour are deader than the proverbial dodo and have been for over a decade, that it may make a difference. But I would have thought as a result the beneficiaries (if any) would be the Liberal Democrats rather than Labour. Which is why the current polls do not make much sense.
Beeb
There's a lot more to the constituency than Headingly (which will have the lowest turnout in any case).
I'd say there's a much better chance of a Conservative gain in Leeds NW than there is in Leeds NE, Leeds E or Leeds W - all of which have shorter Conservative odds.