Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour reduce the Tory lead to 23% with YouGov in the most inc

123457»

Comments

  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    2 years ago isn't so long - you obviously didn't do maths
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017

    I'm reminded of a line in Blairs memoir, on the 97 election, he says at one point he was worried that he would defeat the tories too strongly, leaving Britain in an unhealthy one party state.

    I wonder if May would share a similar thought, would she be happy if a true wipeout occurred, and the next parliament resembled the Russian Duma?

    The exit poll was 47-29 and the result 44-31.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,578
    AndyJS said:

    This can't go on, there must be secret meetings going on with Labour MPs discussing how to have new leadership for the duration of the election campaign to avoid extinction.

    At the least, if this keeps up, more of them are going to break and openly condemn him.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,504

    I wonder if May would share a similar thought, would she be happy if a true wipeout occurred, and the next parliament resembled the Russian Duma?

    It's stage one of becoming the Singapore of Europe with the Conservatives as the People's Action Party.
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited April 2017
    Prodicus said:

    Student Labour societies shrinking, Tory ditto growing, acc. to the Telegraph.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/22/student-tory-groups-swell-backlash-left-wing-activists/

    Shoddy journalism. Essentially lists some universities where Conservative groups have gone up and represents it as representative of universities in general. Also doesn't provide links as to where they've got these increases from, either.

    Can well believe Labour societies are losing members but the link only lists two instances in that link.


  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    2 years ago isn't so long - you obviously didn't do maths
    He forgets his "back story" sometimes.
  • Options
    ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    kle4 said:

    Prodicus said:

    Student Labour societies shrinking, Tory ditto growing, acc. to the Telegraph.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/22/student-tory-groups-swell-backlash-left-wing-activists/

    It gives Tory group rises in percent but includes actual numbers for labour groups. I find that suspicious for done reason.
    Yes, I thought that, nevertheless in terms of general direction of travel... possibly heading for peak lunacy in studentland.

  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    kle4 said:

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    You're so lucky - when I were a lad We had to wait 5 years between GEs. Aye, they were dark times.
    You're not from Yorkshire are you, eating coal for breakfast?
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    2 years ago isn't so long - you obviously didn't do maths
    It isn't long but two years ago I wasn't 18
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,578

    kle4 said:

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    You're so lucky - when I were a lad We had to wait 5 years between GEs. Aye, they were dark times.
    You're not from Yorkshire are you, eating coal for breakfast?
    Only for the purposes of that joke.
  • Options
    Matrix15Matrix15 Posts: 2
    Pol betting novice here, long time reader first time commenter. Is the 20/1 still available and how do you find it? I always see odds mentioned on here but never know where to go to get them. Thanks for any tips.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Could we see 500 Conservative seats? It sounds ridiculous. But with the SNP on 50%, and the opposition fragmented, they got all but three seats in Scotland.

    The UK vote share could look awfully like Scottish one. Could it have a similar outcome?

    Would be interesting if it ended like that because if there was a split in what's left of the Labour Party to the Lib-Dems we could actually see the Liberals as the main Opposition Party for the first time since maybe 1905?

    Is the upshot of all the uphevals of the past few years going to be a reversion, essentially, to where we was in the 19th century - Tory/Liberal?
    The Liberal Democrats didn't exist in 1905.
    Not until eighty three years later.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,583
    AndyJS said:

    I'm reminded of a line in Blairs memoir, on the 97 election, he says at one point he was worried that he would defeat the tories too strongly, leaving Britain in an unhealthy one party state.

    I wonder if May would share a similar thought, would she be happy if a true wipeout occurred, and the next parliament resembled the Russian Duma?

    The exit poll was 47-29 and the result 44-31.
    Talking of exit polls is the BBC wise to go with Dimbleby again, I mean he might not be able to deal with the shock of what might be about to happen.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    I'm reminded of a line in Blairs memoir, on the 97 election, he says at one point he was worried that he would defeat the tories too strongly, leaving Britain in an unhealthy one party state.

    I wonder if May would share a similar thought, would she be happy if a true wipeout occurred, and the next parliament resembled the Russian Duma?

    You don't really think Blair meant it do you?
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    GeoffM said:

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    2 years ago isn't so long - you obviously didn't do maths
    He forgets his "back story" sometimes.
    You know, it's a honour to have my authencity questioned by alt-righters.

    They are the last people on earth to have a real understanding of reality.
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    You get the odd 20-year old in sixth form, if there have been health issues or course transfers or resits. So perhaps there will be a non-zero number of high school students voting in their second GE!

    (This is not a barb at the lovely Miss A, I simply find the scenario of a high school student with multiple GE and Referendum votes to their name already rather amusing, bearing in mind other folk only got their very first shot at 22/23, depending on political timings!)
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977

    Scott_P said:

    Sturgeon playing politics with calls for a 2nd Sindy ref has rightly bitten her on the backside.

    Canvassers report Nicola Sturgeon being referred to as "that woman" on the doorstep

    Used to be reserved for Maggie Thatcher :smile:
    Sturgeon – less popular than the poll tax :lol:
    This was happening in 2015 for me. After immigration/Europe the problem of
    The SNP in general and Sturge in particular was the most frequently mentioned national issue.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Matrix15 said:

    Pol betting novice here, long time reader first time commenter. Is the 20/1 still available and how do you find it? I always see odds mentioned on here but never know where to go to get them. Thanks for any tips.

    It's gone now. TSE and I both spotted it independently and posted on it.

    Such is the power of PB that everyone piled on and now it's down to 6-1

    http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/9388610/Total+Conservative+Party+Seats+In+Scotland+Over+Under.html

    Quite simply, on here if you snooze ... you lose. It's all about timing. We spot value on here and post about it. If we've got any sense we put a couple of guineas on ourselves before posting because true value is snapped up by the (few but very clued) gamblers on here.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    kle4 said:

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    You're so lucky - when I were a lad We had to wait 5 years between GEs. Aye, they were dark times.
    Tbf, this will probably be the last time for a long time that a snap GE is called. Post New Labour it's been a highly unpredictable period politics where referendums have become the new normal!
    sense of humour required!
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm reminded of a line in Blairs memoir, on the 97 election, he says at one point he was worried that he would defeat the tories too strongly, leaving Britain in an unhealthy one party state.

    I wonder if May would share a similar thought, would she be happy if a true wipeout occurred, and the next parliament resembled the Russian Duma?

    The exit poll was 47-29 and the result 44-31.
    Talking of exit polls is the BBC wise to go with Dimbleby again, I mean he might not be able to deal with the shock of what might be about to happen.
    Best news of the election so far that he's going to do a 10th results show. The last time he didn't present in the studio he was standing outside 10 Downing Street all night long in the freezing cold in 1974. Before that, in 1970, he was shadowing Edward Heath in Bexley.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    Matrix15 said:

    Pol betting novice here, long time reader first time commenter. Is the 20/1 still available and how do you find it? I always see odds mentioned on here but never know where to go to get them. Thanks for any tips.

    It's 6/1 now, which is probably still a value bet. This is the page:

    http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/9388610/Total+Conservative+Party+Seats+In+Scotland+Over+Under.html
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,110
    Welcome @Matix15!
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    2 years ago isn't so long - you obviously didn't do maths
    He forgets his "back story" sometimes.
    You know, it's a honour to have my authencity questioned by alt-righters.

    They are the last people on earth to have a real understanding of reality.
    I think that "questioned" involves actually caring.

    Not believing is more neutral and therefore closer.

    Goodnight.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    BigRich said:

    Cyan said:

    La Libre in Belgium has published a poll since the French ban came into effect. I don't think this is voodoo: they're keeping quiet about the pollster for legal reasons.

    Le Pen 26%
    Fillon 22%
    Macron 21%
    Mélenchon 17%
    Hamon 7%

    The Tribune de Genève in Switzerland will also be publishing one, or already has.

    It's apparently polling from 'one of the candidate's teams'. Who would benefit from a poll like this?
    Presumably Macron.

    Le Pen looks a bit too high, however given we know Fillon's base will likely turn out while Macron's is untested there is reason to believe the order is not implausible.
    Admittedly I have not been following the French elections as much as many on hear. so correct me if I am worn would a Fillon Vs Le Pen run off put be an Anglo-Phile Vs a Euro-Phobe, so ether way we could get a better deal than expected a few months ago.
    I was watching French telly and it appears some LR deputies, not just Fillon, seem quite pragmatic about the Brexit talks and dismissing the "tough" line from the EU/Merkel. It would likely mean there would be some internal EU squabbles over the negotiations though.
    Fillon is pro EU if a shade more Eurosceptic than Macron and has said he wants to attract business from London back to Paris so do not expect any great favours from him, Le Pen is still the only candidate who really backed Brexit
    Of course, I think the big difference re:Macron is the LR aren't as fussed about what is in it for the EU and do not want to see France's interests harmed because of EU intransigence.
    I met Macron last year, and he sees the EU as an institution that helps further France's interests. Brexit, to him, is an opportunity for France to grab business from the UK. I think French politicians are - by and large - more nationalistic and opportunistic than we tend to think.
    I'm not sure that I know anyone who doesn't believe that French politicians are totally driven by nationalism and opportunism; would that ours were more like theirs.
  • Options
    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    You get the odd 20-year old in sixth form, if there have been health issues or course transfers or resits. So perhaps there will be a non-zero number of high school students voting in their second GE!

    (This is not a barb at the lovely Miss A, I simply find the scenario of a high school student with multiple GE and Referendum votes to their name already rather amusing, bearing in mind other folk only got their very first shot at 22/23, depending on political timings!)

    (And more to the point, may not have got second dibs until they were almost 30!)
  • Options
    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    2 years ago isn't so long - you obviously didn't do maths
    He forgets his "back story" sometimes.
    You know, it's a honour to have my authencity questioned by alt-righters.

    They are the last people on earth to have a real understanding of reality.
    I think that "questioned" involves actually caring.

    Not believing is more neutral and therefore closer.

    Goodnight.
    Ah, that defense - really?

    Given that you've intervened several times to give your opinion of 'not believing' I'd say you do care.

    Goodnight, have 4chan and Reddit inspired dreams....
  • Options
    houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450

    When was the last election when the Tories had more MPs than Labour in each of Scotland, England and Wales?

    I thought maybe 1955 but looks like Labour had more in Wales. 1935 possibly.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    This can't go on, there must be secret meetings going on with Labour MPs discussing how to have new leadership for the duration of the election campaign to avoid extinction.

    At the least, if this keeps up, more of them are going to break and openly condemn him.
    which will presumably only make things worse for them
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,504
    At this rate people will be calling for the Conservatives to stand candidates in the Republic of Ireland.
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,583
    Results in a nail bitingly tiny majority of 104
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    GeoffM said:

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    2 years ago isn't so long - you obviously didn't do maths
    He forgets his "back story" sometimes.
    she's a she
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited April 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    nunu said:

    ToryJim said:

    Chameleon said:

    We've seen some seismic stuff this evening. Somehow this tops everything that has come before.
    It's barely believable stuff. Just mind blowing.
    we still have the Welsh poll to come on Monday..should show a Tory lead, maybe a 35% share aswell.
    Doubt the Tories will be in the thirties in Wales right now.
    they got 27% last time, should be able to add on 5-6% if ukip collapse to tories.
  • Options
    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Chameleon said:

    2072 and 2074 were interviewed. Is there something significant about 2000 and seventy something?

    Year of Next Labour PM.
    I think that we may be approaching 'never again' being the answer to that question.
    Ah you youngsters. I remember back in the olden days* when many people had written the Tory Party off permanently. Even some Tories could hardly believe the revivification when it finally happened.

    *2004
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    2 years ago isn't so long - you obviously didn't do maths
    It isn't long but two years ago I wasn't 18
    so how did you (qualify to) vote?
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    You're so lucky - when I were a lad We had to wait 5 years between GEs. Aye, they were dark times.
    You're not from Yorkshire are you, eating coal for breakfast?
    Only for the purposes of that joke.
    fair enough - I love that skit
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    GeoffM said:

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    2 years ago isn't so long - you obviously didn't do maths
    He forgets his "back story" sometimes.
    she's a she
    Yeah, right.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279

    I see these Scottish polls support my theory that some soft SNP'ers are moving directly to SCons.

    I suggested that some Indy No voters then voted SNP in 2015 GE relaxed that the issued of independence had been settled. The Sturgeon/Murrell strategy of throwing the kitchen sink at trying to piggy back another Indy Ref on the back of the Brexit result to the detriment of all other domestic issues will prove to be a very costly mistake. Oh to have been a fly on the wall at Bute House when they heard the news that May had called a GE.

  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "A Labour government would seek to create four new UK-wide bank holidays, Jeremy Corbyn says.
    The holidays would be on each nation's patron saint day - St David's Day on 1 March, St Patrick's Day on 17 March, St George's Day on 23 April and St Andrew's Day on 30 November.
    Mr Corbyn believes the move will "celebrate the national cultures of our proud nations"."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39682388
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Alistair said:

    Do the pollsters do any shy Tory adjustment in Scotland that might be thrown off by a surge in stated support?

    Pollsters got Holyrood election almost spot on, except for the Cons that they understated by about 3%
    They also understated Labour - though by a smaaler margin.
  • Options
    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Whaurs fitalass? Best tory news in years and she's not crept out of her crypt.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    GeoffM said:

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    2 years ago isn't so long - you obviously didn't do maths
    He forgets his "back story" sometimes.
    You know, it's a honour to have my authencity questioned by alt-righters.

    They are the last people on earth to have a real understanding of reality.
    I hope you're not including me on that, I put Geoff right on your gender!
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    At this rate people will be calling for the Conservatives to stand candidates in the Republic of Ireland.

    Con GAIN Cork!
  • Options
    OUTOUT Posts: 569

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    2 years ago isn't so long - you obviously didn't do maths
    It isn't long but two years ago I wasn't 18
    so how did you (qualify to) vote?

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    2 years ago isn't so long - you obviously didn't do maths
    It isn't long but two years ago I wasn't 18
    so how did you (qualify to) vote?
    Doh! Think about it.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279

    Scottish Westminster voting intention:

    SNP: 43% (-7)
    CON: 28% (+13)

    More Blue MPs north of the border than pandas. – That’s a first…?

    Twitter
    Murdo Fraser‏Verified account @murdo_fraser 3h3 hours ago
    Those bloody pandas have a lot of work to do in the next 7 weeks... #GE2017
  • Options
    ToryJimToryJim Posts: 3,583
    I'm sparing a thought for Labour canvassers who will feel a different election than the result these polls, if borne out, will deliver. I don't remember, from an activist perspective, 1997 but in 2001 I remember going round the doors with acres of seeming positivity. Everyone was convinced that there were 50-60 gains to be had. The result was shattering as it didn't accord with our experience.

    Labour teams will be going round getting smiles, positive responses and will feel buoyed and that it won't be as bad as the polls etc seem. The dawning realisation of catastrophe will be hard for them.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    At this rate people will be calling for the Conservatives to stand candidates in the Republic of Ireland.

    is that allowed?
  • Options
    Doesn't that suggest really high numbers for 'others'?
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    ToryJim said:

    I'm sparing a thought for Labour canvassers who will feel a different election than the result these polls, if borne out, will deliver. I don't remember, from an activist perspective, 1997 but in 2001 I remember going round the doors with acres of seeming positivity. Everyone was convinced that there were 50-60 gains to be had. The result was shattering as it didn't accord with our experience.

    Labour teams will be going round getting smiles, positive responses and will feel buoyed and that it won't be as bad as the polls etc seem. The dawning realisation of catastrophe will be hard for them.

    I was out on the doorsteps in 1997 and I thought that I was going to win my own (local) race that year. We won the constituency but lost my marginal ward.

    Agree entirely, Jim. The bubble was quite incredible, looking back on it.
  • Options
    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    GeoffM said:

    GeoffM said:

    The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.

    Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him

    Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.

    But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
    You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
    Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
    LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
    2 years ago isn't so long - you obviously didn't do maths
    He forgets his "back story" sometimes.
    she's a she
    Yeah, right.
    Are you asking me to guess? LGBT? Did I get that right? You should have proper respect for the sensitivity of my years. They bring experience but are burdened with ancient values.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2017

    At this rate people will be calling for the Conservatives to stand candidates in the Republic of Ireland.

    Related - could the NI conservatives be slightly less irrelevant than usual in this election?

    TM's paper candidates might get a few percent...
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited April 2017
    JPJ2 said:



    Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic
    changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.

    Dear SNP HQ, can you pop that threat on all your GE campaign litrature. Oh, and can you have Sturgeon sign off with that threat on her daily soundbite on the evening TV Scottish News between now and the GE. Pretty please...
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    fitalass said:

    JPJ2 said:



    Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic
    changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.

    Dear SNP HQ, can you pop that threat on all your GE campaign litrature. Oh, and can you have Sturgeon sign off with that threat on her daily soundbite on the evening TV Scottish News between now and the GE. Pretty please...
    The Nats dream is dying and they know it.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    HYUFD said:

    JPJ2 said:

    Peak Tory in Scotland already-blink and you will miss it.

    Still an overwhelmingly victory for the SNP even on these figures and
    attempts by the Tories to quote their heavy defeat by the SNP as somehow justification for delaying
    a referendum will not convince the 70 per cent or so who have not voted Tory.

    Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic
    changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.

    The SNP losing 10-12 seats, most probably the leader of the SNP at Westminster losing his seat and the unionist parties combined on 55% would be a rebuff to the SNP whichever way you try and spin it and May would easily be able to ignore Sturgeon's indyref2 demands for the rest of the Parliament
    Hits nail on the head!
  • Options
    OUTOUT Posts: 569

    fitalass said:

    JPJ2 said:



    Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic
    changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.

    Dear SNP HQ, can you pop that threat on all your GE campaign litrature. Oh, and can you have Sturgeon sign off with that threat on her daily soundbite on the evening TV Scottish News between now and the GE. Pretty please...
    The Nats dream is dying and they know it.
    Aye sure. 35% is the ultra no surrender yoon peak,
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "A Ukip candidate for Glasgow Council has said she would like to see the death penalty reintroduced and suggested the guillotine might be a better method of execution than hanging."

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-candidate-gisela-allen-glasgow-council-bring-back-death-penalty-abolish-lgbt-communities-a7696651.html
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Pong said:

    At this rate people will be calling for the Conservatives to stand candidates in the Republic of Ireland.

    Related - could the NI conservatives be slightly less irrelevant than usual in this election?

    TM's paper candidates might get a few percent...
    I was thinking about that, Normally she would be accused of splitting the unionist vote, but This time could they actually win? normally I would laugh at that suggestion, but, the DUP are clearly at a low ebb because of the Scandal as seen by there resent results. The UUP have been stuck more or less in a rut for 10 years now. At least some of the SDLP vote is showing singes of being board by sectarian politics and would like to vote for a 'normal party' so long as labour is led by Corbyn he will be hated by many in NI for his relationship/friendship with some IRA people, and so long as the 'my enemy's enemy is my friend' logic stands. If ever there was a brake though opportunity for Conservatives in NI this is it.

    But I think it would take a lot of PM Visits/time/energy/money/attention. and therefor probably not worth risking it.
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited April 2017

    fitalass said:

    JPJ2 said:



    Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic
    changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.

    Dear SNP HQ, can you pop that threat on all your GE campaign litrature. Oh, and can you have Sturgeon sign off with that threat on her daily soundbite on the evening TV Scottish News between now and the GE. Pretty please...
    The Nats dream is dying and they know it.
    Scottish general election now! If only the unionist parties could cooperate on calling for one.
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    OUT said:

    fitalass said:

    JPJ2 said:



    Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic
    changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.

    Dear SNP HQ, can you pop that threat on all your GE campaign litrature. Oh, and can you have Sturgeon sign off with that threat on her daily soundbite on the evening TV Scottish News between now and the GE. Pretty please...
    The Nats dream is dying and they know it.
    Aye sure. 35% is the ultra no surrender yoon peak,
    Please learn the difference between "Tory" and "unionist".
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    BigRich said:

    Cyan said:

    La Libre in Belgium has published a poll since the French ban came into effect. I don't think this is voodoo: they're keeping quiet about the pollster for legal reasons.

    Le Pen 26%
    Fillon 22%
    Macron 21%
    Mélenchon 17%
    Hamon 7%

    The Tribune de Genève in Switzerland will also be publishing one, or already has.

    It's apparently polling from 'one of the candidate's teams'. Who would benefit from a poll like this?
    Presumably Macron.

    Le Pen looks a bit too high, however given we know Fillon's base will likely turn out while Macron's is untested there is reason to believe the order is not implausible.
    Admittedly I have not been following the French elections as much as many on hear. so correct me if I am worn would a Fillon Vs Le Pen run off put be an Anglo-Phile Vs a Euro-Phobe, so ether way we could get a better deal than expected a few months ago.
    I was watching French telly and it appears some LR deputies, not just Fillon, seem quite pragmatic about the Brexit talks and dismissing the "tough" line from the EU/Merkel. It would likely mean there would be some internal EU squabbles over the negotiations though.
    Fillon is pro EU if a shade more Eurosceptic than Macron and has said he wants to attract business from London back to Paris so do not expect any great favours from him, Le Pen is still the only candidate who really backed Brexit
    Of course, I thin bk the big difference re:Macron is the LR aren't as fussed about what is in it for the EU and do not want to see France's interests harmed because of EU intransigence.
    I met Macron last year, and he sees the EU as an institution that helps further France's interests. Brexit, to him, is an opportunity for France to grab business from the UK. I think French politicians are - by and large - more nationalistic and opportunistic than we tend to think.
    Macron's a homosexual living in a semi-closeted, sub-dom relationship with a man who runs one of France's major companies.

    It worries me, that the French can think this is hideable, when it is all over the internet and confirmed by personal acquaintances.

    But, vive la difference
    I thought he was married to a woman twice his age? At least that's what the Sunday Times Magazine was reporting a few weeks ago.
  • Options
    AndyJS said:

    "A Ukip candidate for Glasgow Council has said she would like to see the death penalty reintroduced and suggested the guillotine might be a better method of execution than hanging."

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-candidate-gisela-allen-glasgow-council-bring-back-death-penalty-abolish-lgbt-communities-a7696651.html

    They are falling apart. Bet on under 5%.

    Oddly, though, the last use of the guillotine in France was in 1977 - many years after the last hanging in the UK. Fun (sort of) fact.
  • Options
    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Cyan said:

    fitalass said:

    JPJ2 said:



    Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic
    changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.

    Dear SNP HQ, can you pop that threat on all your GE campaign litrature. Oh, and can you have Sturgeon sign off with that threat on her daily soundbite on the evening TV Scottish News between now and the GE. Pretty please...
    The Nats dream is dying and they know it.
    Scottish general election now! If only the unionist parties could cooperate on calling for one.
    60 seats out of 129. Go to your bed.
  • Options
    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited April 2017
    AndyJS said:

    "A Ukip candidate for Glasgow Council has said she would like to see the death penalty reintroduced and suggested the guillotine might be a better method of execution than hanging."

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-candidate-gisela-allen-glasgow-council-bring-back-death-penalty-abolish-lgbt-communities-a7696651.html

    Quite sensible, really. It's more guaranteed to get the result first time and without the calculations and the weight guesswork required to avoid a slow(er) end on a rope.

    Both methods are preferable to lethal injection, for example. If you want to bring back the death penalty then you need to avoid methods where you can be held to ransom by third party antis.

    In the US, for example, you see domestic terrorists targeting the drug companies which sell the lethal injection cocktails. Hence the move back to more traditional methods of execution.

    Oklahoma reintroduced the gas chamber, Utah the firing squad and Tennessee the electric chair in response to a nationwide scarcity of lethal injection drugs for death row inmates. Mississippi are now hedging their bets by allowing all three.
  • Options
    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Cyan said:

    OUT said:

    fitalass said:

    JPJ2 said:



    Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic
    changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.

    Dear SNP HQ, can you pop that threat on all your GE campaign litrature. Oh, and can you have Sturgeon sign off with that threat on her daily soundbite on the evening TV Scottish News between now and the GE. Pretty please...
    The Nats dream is dying and they know it.
    Aye sure. 35% is the ultra no surrender yoon peak,
    Please learn the difference between "Tory" and "unionist".
    The ultra yoons are coalescing under the tory banner.
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited April 2017

    At this rate people will be calling for the Conservatives to stand candidates in the Republic of Ireland.

    is that allowed?
    "Tory" is an Irish word.

    It's quite amusing, this conviction that the Tories could soon become akin to the Workers' Party of Korea. They could stand in France! And the US! They could paint everywhere blue and reorganise all countries in the world - even foreign ones - on the basis of private schools, grammar schools, and workhouses! Except in Singapore where the state has more of a role, but never mind! It's the same thing! YouGov prove that this is what's coming!
  • Options
    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 726
    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    RobD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Could we see 500 Conservative seats? It sounds ridiculous. But with the SNP on 50%, and the opposition fragmented, they got all but three seats in Scotland.

    The UK vote share could look awfully like Scottish one. Could it have a similar outcome?

    If you Baxter the 50% poll the Tories only get 425 seats.
    What would you have gotten in Scotland last year Baxtering SNP 50%?
    Good point...
    The SNP got their highest swings just where they needed to, where Labour were previously strongest.
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited April 2017
    OUT said:

    Cyan said:

    OUT said:

    fitalass said:

    JPJ2 said:



    Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic
    changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.

    Dear SNP HQ, can you pop that threat on all your GE campaign litrature. Oh, and can you have Sturgeon sign off with that threat on her daily soundbite on the evening TV Scottish News between now and the GE. Pretty please...
    The Nats dream is dying and they know it.
    Aye sure. 35% is the ultra no surrender yoon peak,
    Please learn the difference between "Tory" and "unionist".
    The ultra yoons are coalescing under the tory banner.
    Your concept of "ultra-unionist" needs a little more thought, and your thesis is wrong. SLAB may be losing votes to SCON, but the two parties aren't coalescing. However, for the record I would support a coalition between SLAB, SCON and SLIBDEM if that's what is necessary to kick the SNP out and to give Scotland a proper government that isn't a government of rabid xenophobic grant-grabbing types who have total contempt for the Scottish people, as shown by how they put forward the ridiculous line that it's so important to be in a single market with Germany etc., countries with which Scotland does so little trade, and that that makes a second indyref necessary. That's just a "respectable" version of saying "we support whoever's playing against England". It's less honest even than the platform of their fellow xenophobes the French National Front.

    Just think of this: the SNP revolts so many Scottish people that it makes the Tories seem more attractive.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    er voting intention:

    SNP: 44% (-3)
    CON: 33% (+5)
    LAB: 13% (-1)
    LDEM: 5% (+1)

    (via Panelbase)
    Chgs. w/ Jan 2017


    196

    190

    Extraordinary.
  • Options
    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 726
    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm reminded of a line in Blairs memoir, on the 97 election, he says at one point he was worried that he would defeat the tories too strongly, leaving Britain in an unhealthy one party state.

    I wonder if May would share a similar thought, would she be happy if a true wipeout occurred, and the next parliament resembled the Russian Duma?

    The exit poll was 47-29 and the result 44-31.
    Talking of exit polls is the BBC wise to go with Dimbleby again, I mean he might not be able to deal with the shock of what might be about to happen.
    Best news of the election so far that he's going to do a 10th results show. The last time he didn't present in the studio he was standing outside 10 Downing Street all night long in the freezing cold in 1974. Before that, in 1970, he was shadowing Edward Heath in Bexley.
    I thought 2015 was his last and Huw Edwards was doing this one?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,110
    NeilVW said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm reminded of a line in Blairs memoir, on the 97 election, he says at one point he was worried that he would defeat the tories too strongly, leaving Britain in an unhealthy one party state.

    I wonder if May would share a similar thought, would she be happy if a true wipeout occurred, and the next parliament resembled the Russian Duma?

    The exit poll was 47-29 and the result 44-31.
    Talking of exit polls is the BBC wise to go with Dimbleby again, I mean he might not be able to deal with the shock of what might be about to happen.
    Best news of the election so far that he's going to do a 10th results show. The last time he didn't present in the studio he was standing outside 10 Downing Street all night long in the freezing cold in 1974. Before that, in 1970, he was shadowing Edward Heath in Bexley.
    I thought 2015 was his last and Huw Edwards was doing this one?
    That was the plan originally. Dimbleby started with a great Tory victory, so it is fitting that he'll end on one :D
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited April 2017
    So if Le Pen wins, and then she and Merkel say let's call the EU off, and they want to bring Britain in on shaping the new Europe, then where does that leave the "Brexit means Brexit" and "red white and blue Brexit" and "negotiating Brexit is so awfully awfully hard, but we won't take any nonsense from those continental types" profundity of Theresa May? She'll be a person of the past then, surely?

    Or will it be like a right-wing version of the three witches in Macbeth? (I wish I hadn't just had that thought.)
  • Options
    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 726
    RobD said:

    NeilVW said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm reminded of a line in Blairs memoir, on the 97 election, he says at one point he was worried that he would defeat the tories too strongly, leaving Britain in an unhealthy one party state.

    I wonder if May would share a similar thought, would she be happy if a true wipeout occurred, and the next parliament resembled the Russian Duma?

    The exit poll was 47-29 and the result 44-31.
    Talking of exit polls is the BBC wise to go with Dimbleby again, I mean he might not be able to deal with the shock of what might be about to happen.
    Best news of the election so far that he's going to do a 10th results show. The last time he didn't present in the studio he was standing outside 10 Downing Street all night long in the freezing cold in 1974. Before that, in 1970, he was shadowing Edward Heath in Bexley.
    I thought 2015 was his last and Huw Edwards was doing this one?
    That was the plan originally. Dimbleby started with a great Tory victory, so it is fitting that he'll end on one :D
    :smile:

    Dimbleby lost the plot a few times in the 2015 show (no doubt through tiredness), but I suppose he is a bit more entertaining than Edwards (who is brilliant too and did very well in the morning segment).
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,110
    Cyan said:

    So if Le Pen wins, and then she and Merkel say let's call the EU off, and they want to bring Britain in on shaping the new Europe, then where does that leave the "Brexit means Brexit" and "red white and blue Brexit" and "negotiating Brexit is so awfully awfully hard, but we won't take any nonsense from those continental types" profundity of Theresa May? She'll be a person of the past then, surely?

    Or will it be like a right-wing version of the three witches in Macbeth? (I wish I hadn't just had that thought.)

    If they call the EU off, there won't be any need for a Brexit ;)
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    RobD said:

    Cyan said:

    So if Le Pen wins, and then she and Merkel say let's call the EU off, and they want to bring Britain in on shaping the new Europe, then where does that leave the "Brexit means Brexit" and "red white and blue Brexit" and "negotiating Brexit is so awfully awfully hard, but we won't take any nonsense from those continental types" profundity of Theresa May? She'll be a person of the past then, surely?

    Or will it be like a right-wing version of the three witches in Macbeth? (I wish I hadn't just had that thought.)

    If they call the EU off, there won't be any need for a Brexit ;)
    Exactly!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,110
    NeilVW said:

    RobD said:

    NeilVW said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm reminded of a line in Blairs memoir, on the 97 election, he says at one point he was worried that he would defeat the tories too strongly, leaving Britain in an unhealthy one party state.

    I wonder if May would share a similar thought, would she be happy if a true wipeout occurred, and the next parliament resembled the Russian Duma?

    The exit poll was 47-29 and the result 44-31.
    Talking of exit polls is the BBC wise to go with Dimbleby again, I mean he might not be able to deal with the shock of what might be about to happen.
    Best news of the election so far that he's going to do a 10th results show. The last time he didn't present in the studio he was standing outside 10 Downing Street all night long in the freezing cold in 1974. Before that, in 1970, he was shadowing Edward Heath in Bexley.
    I thought 2015 was his last and Huw Edwards was doing this one?
    That was the plan originally. Dimbleby started with a great Tory victory, so it is fitting that he'll end on one :D
    :smile:

    Dimbleby lost the plot a few times in the 2015 show (no doubt through tiredness), but I suppose he is a bit more entertaining than Edwards (who is brilliant too and did very well in the morning segment).
    i'm just hoping he utters the phrase "Scottish Tory Surge" as some BBC AV bod plays a klaxon sound effect :D
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,110
    Cyan said:

    RobD said:

    Cyan said:

    So if Le Pen wins, and then she and Merkel say let's call the EU off, and they want to bring Britain in on shaping the new Europe, then where does that leave the "Brexit means Brexit" and "red white and blue Brexit" and "negotiating Brexit is so awfully awfully hard, but we won't take any nonsense from those continental types" profundity of Theresa May? She'll be a person of the past then, surely?

    Or will it be like a right-wing version of the three witches in Macbeth? (I wish I hadn't just had that thought.)

    If they call the EU off, there won't be any need for a Brexit ;)
    Exactly!
    I see no reason May would not be involved. Whether we joined or not would have to be confirmed by a referendum.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,110
    edited April 2017
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/22/precious-declaration-independence-copy-discovered-chichester/

    The only other parchment copy of the US declaration of independence has been found in a West Sussex records office. :o
  • Options
    NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 726
    edited April 2017
    RobD said:

    NeilVW said:

    RobD said:

    NeilVW said:

    AndyJS said:

    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    I'm reminded of a line in Blairs memoir, on the 97 election, he says at one point he was worried that he would defeat the tories too strongly, leaving Britain in an unhealthy one party state.

    I wonder if May would share a similar thought, would she be happy if a true wipeout occurred, and the next parliament resembled the Russian Duma?

    The exit poll was 47-29 and the result 44-31.
    Talking of exit polls is the BBC wise to go with Dimbleby again, I mean he might not be able to deal with the shock of what might be about to happen.
    Best news of the election so far that he's going to do a 10th results show. The last time he didn't present in the studio he was standing outside 10 Downing Street all night long in the freezing cold in 1974. Before that, in 1970, he was shadowing Edward Heath in Bexley.
    I thought 2015 was his last and Huw Edwards was doing this one?
    That was the plan originally. Dimbleby started with a great Tory victory, so it is fitting that he'll end on one :D
    :smile:

    Dimbleby lost the plot a few times in the 2015 show (no doubt through tiredness), but I suppose he is a bit more entertaining than Edwards (who is brilliant too and did very well in the morning segment).
    i'm just hoping he utters the phrase "Scottish Tory Surge" as some BBC AV bod plays a klaxon sound effect :D
    I'm looking forward to the exit poll - I'll still be nervous, but not 2015 nervous.

    Will Yvette Cooper have a Portillio moment - Normanton requires a similar 17% swing. Has a big UKIP vote to squeeze. :smile:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normanton,_Pontefract_and_Castleford_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_results
  • Options
    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    OUT said:

    fitalass said:

    JPJ2 said:



    Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic
    changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.

    Dear SNP HQ, can you pop that threat on all your GE campaign litrature. Oh, and can you have Sturgeon sign off with that threat on her daily soundbite on the evening TV Scottish News between now and the GE. Pretty please...
    The Nats dream is dying and they know it.
    Aye sure. 35% is the ultra no surrender yoon peak,
    The tectonic plates of Scottish politics are shifting and the jerrybuilt SNP eyesore looks vulnerable to collapse.
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    GeoffM said:

    AndyJS said:

    "A Ukip candidate for Glasgow Council has said she would like to see the death penalty reintroduced and suggested the guillotine might be a better method of execution than hanging."

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-candidate-gisela-allen-glasgow-council-bring-back-death-penalty-abolish-lgbt-communities-a7696651.html

    Quite sensible, really. It's more guaranteed to get the result first time and without the calculations and the weight guesswork required to avoid a slow(er) end on a rope.

    Both methods are preferable to lethal injection, for example. If you want to bring back the death penalty then you need to avoid methods where you can be held to ransom by third party antis.

    In the US, for example, you see domestic terrorists targeting the drug companies which sell the lethal injection cocktails. Hence the move back to more traditional methods of execution.

    Oklahoma reintroduced the gas chamber, Utah the firing squad and Tennessee the electric chair in response to a nationwide scarcity of lethal injection drugs for death row inmates. Mississippi are now hedging their bets by allowing all three.
    I am bemused by the idea that executions will have to be cancelled as the drugs will be past shelf date. What are they worried about? That the drugs might kill the patient?
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited April 2017

    HYUFD said:

    JPJ2 said:

    Peak Tory in Scotland already-blink and you will miss it.

    Still an overwhelmingly victory for the SNP even on these figures and
    attempts by the Tories to quote their heavy defeat by the SNP as somehow justification for delaying
    a referendum will not convince the 70 per cent or so who have not voted Tory.

    Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic
    changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.

    The SNP losing 10-12 seats, most probably the leader of the SNP at Westminster losing his seat and the unionist parties combined on 55% would be a rebuff to the SNP whichever way you try and spin it and May would easily be able to ignore Sturgeon's indyref2 demands for the rest of the Parliament
    Correct. If the combined Unionist vote comes to over 50% and the SNP ships any meaningful number of seats, then I think May will feel she's in a strong enough position to rebuff Sturgeon. After that, the SNP can scream and cry and fulminate as much as they like. They've already been whining at an increasingly high pitch ever since the Brexit vote, and thus far it has got them nowhere.

    Under such circumstances, the line from No.10 would probably be that peak SNP has passed, the vote shares suggest a majority against independence (confirming the 2014 referendum result,) and therefore indyref2 is off the table - for now. I think that May would tell the SNP to wait until the next Holyrood election in 2021 - by which time we'll have left the EU, and Scots can assess properly how the new arrangements are taking shape - and then try to win another pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament, before conceding a new referendum.
    Correct, the biggest SNP USP has been that they were outpolling the combined Unionist vote when it came too pretty much claiming that gave them a mandate on any given issue despite no longer having a majority at Holyrood. Its always been cringeworthy observing both Salmond or Sturgeon falling back on their party's polling figures at FMQs when faced with difficult Opposition questions they simple could not rebuff. What ever the outcome of this GE, it would be a real help to Holyrood if this childish rebuttal was finally laid to rest on the back of an electoral backlash.
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited April 2017

    That Jesus Fucking Christ was and truly deserved.

    Agreed, makes you realise just why the SNP attack dogs went absolutely rabid on Ruth Davidson and the Scottish Conservatives about 10 days ago during the Scottish local elections. If their internal canvass/polling reports launched that onslaught, what the hell will these two Scottish polls do in light of an equally imminent GE?
  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
  • Options
    CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Info about late polls may be available at the Twitter hashtag #radiolondres when it's not allowed to be published in France.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,164
    Post the poll numbers you want people to believe under the hashtag #RadioLondres
  • Options
    RogerRoger Posts: 19,042
    It's not looking good for Jeremy. Could PB.com have his two remaining supporters?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,110
    New thread!
  • Options
    RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    ToryJim said:

    I keep wondering where's the catch.

    The catch is we have to sustain this for 7 weeks... lots can still happen. If a nailed on ELE looks likely for a number of weeks then politicians' behaviour and voters' behaviour will respond in some way.

    I can't see these kinds of poll leads being sustained - but neither can I see what Labour will do to improve their position. Ditching Corbyn now will seem even more chaotic and utterly split their activist base.

    Maybe Dennis Skinner should have retired gracefully at the dissolution rather than stand again... "Con gain Bolsover" flashing up on the TV wall would, I think, finish off Dimbleby on election night!

  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    DavidL said:

    That would truly be astonishing. But I would be disappointed if the SNP poll quite as high as that. (Ditto the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems probably both a bit low).
    Keep your hand on that Scottish Tory pulse in Scotland David.....
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Mundell to hold his seat at 1-3, Dumfries and Galloway @ 9-4 and Berwickshire Roxburgh, Selkirk @ 1-2 all look massive to me.

    Where are those crazy fucking prices. BRS @ 1-2 is utterly nuts. Utterly nuts
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,243
    AndyJS said:

    SeanT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    BigRich said:


    Presumably Macron.

    Le Pen looks a bit too high, however given we know Fillon's base will likely turn out while Macron's is untested there is reason to believe the order is not implausible.

    Admittedly I have not been following the French elections as much as many on hear. so correct me if I am worn would a Fillon Vs Le Pen run off put be an Anglo-Phile Vs a Euro-Phobe, so ether way we could get a better deal than expected a few months ago.
    I was watching French telly and it appears some LR deputies, not just Fillon, seem quite pragmatic about the Brexit talks and dismissing the "tough" line from the EU/Merkel. It would likely mean there would be some internal EU squabbles over the negotiations though.
    Fillon is pro EU if a shade more Eurosceptic than Macron and has said he wants to attract business from London back to Paris so do not expect any great favours from him, Le Pen is still the only candidate who really backed Brexit
    Of course, I thin bk the big difference re:Macron is the LR aren't as fussed about what is in it for the EU and do not want to see France's interests harmed because of EU intransigence.
    I met Macron last year, and he sees the EU as an institution that helps further France's interests. Brexit, to him, is an opportunity for France to grab business from the UK. I think French politicians are - by and large - more nationalistic and opportunistic than we tend to think.
    Macron's a homosexual living in a semi-closeted, sub-dom relationship with a man who runs one of France's major companies.

    It worries me, that the French can think this is hideable, when it is all over the internet and confirmed by personal acquaintances.

    But, vive la difference
    I thought he was married to a woman twice his age? At least that's what the Sunday Times Magazine was reporting a few weeks ago.
    He is.

    But that doesn't rule out what SeanT says.
This discussion has been closed.