bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.
This is going the way I want. If the Unionist vote is congregating at around 30% for the Tories and Tories winning big in Westminster, I think pro-independence could be a majority now.
So final bit of quick modelling of approx Scottish poll numbers
Con 32% Lab 15% SNP 43%
Gives 11 Con Seats in order of majority
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Edinburgh South Dumfries and Galloway East Renfrewshire Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Aberdeen South East Lothian Edinburgh South West Edinburgh North and Leith Ochil and South Perthshire Stirling
I really wouldn't throw your money away on ENL. Tories have generally polled between 7k and 9k there, and the demographics don't stack up for it as a Unionist stronghold...
Oh heck yes, ENL seems like no chance in hell in reality but it's what my model has spat out.
It's a pure uniform swing model taking votes from Lab and UKIP and distributing them to Tory and then siphoning off some votes from SNP ad giving back to Labour.
I'm interested to see the 12 seats Curtice has selected.
bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.
This is going the way I want. If the Unionist vote is congregating at around 30% for the Tories and Tories winning big in Westminster, I think pro-independence could be a majority now.
Free to go now they no longer provide Labour with 50 seats?
bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.
This is going the way I want. If the Unionist vote is congregating at around 30% for the Tories and Tories winning big in Westminster, I think pro-independence could be a majority now.
How ironic and (for me) sad that the biggest pro-union party's success could, itself, lead to the end of the union.
So final bit of quick modelling of approx Scottish poll numbers
Con 32% Lab 15% SNP 43%
Gives 11 Con Seats in order of majority
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Edinburgh South Dumfries and Galloway East Renfrewshire Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Aberdeen South East Lothian Edinburgh South West Edinburgh North and Leith Ochil and South Perthshire Stirling
Aberdeen west and Kincardine? Much easier than most of these.
Would be left with 3.5% majority. My model assumes zero LD-to-Con Switching which is why AWK isn't there.
Rest assured, if the Tories get 12 seats AWK will be one of them.
bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.
This is going the way I want. If the Unionist vote is congregating at around 30% for the Tories and Tories winning big in Westminster, I think pro-independence could be a majority now.
Free to go now they no longer provide Labour with 50 seats?
Delete 50, and replace with ONE. No, more seriously, if Scotland became independent, I'd move there.
May won't want a low turnout on election day, if voters think it looks like it's in the bag already.
It will sour the milk.
I think low turnout is a given, since the outcome is (unless everyone is very wrong) not in doubt whether its a 10 point lead or a 25 point lead. And given the highs today, either your advice is too late, or. No, it's too late.
May could incorporate a message about turnout and mandate into her campaign, which voters might respond to.
Edit now down to 14/1 - But still fill your fecking boots
i'm on - only let me have 35 quid on it
I'm due at 25% commission/finders fee from you for that tip when if it comes in
I'd funded the a/c with more than that so feeling like 2 fingers to today, I've put the rest on Spurs winning the Premier League so actually I'm facing a loss but feel better for doing it.
bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.
This is going the way I want. If the Unionist vote is congregating at around 30% for the Tories and Tories winning big in Westminster, I think pro-independence could be a majority now.
Free to go now they no longer provide Labour with 50 seats?
Delete 50, and replace with ONE.
Outlived their usefulness... no wonder Scottish Labour are doing so crap.
It’s in the nature of collective hysteria that no single act can be adduced to prove its existence. But there is a fin de siecle, self-destructive, decadent craziness about Conference 2017. Somewhere in the wads of twenty somethings and thirtywouldbes jamming the chintzy Bournemouth bars long after they’re normally silent lurks the jitterbugging desperation of the Twenties before the Crash, Berlin between the wars, London as Imperial Glory died with its queen. The collective psyche of this group of individuals who’ve never had it so good has rarely been so uncertain.
Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase their majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain."
Looks like he might struggle to become WM mayor with these figures tonight.
So final bit of quick modelling of approx Scottish poll numbers
Con 32% Lab 15% SNP 43%
Gives 11 Con Seats in order of majority
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Edinburgh South Dumfries and Galloway East Renfrewshire Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Aberdeen South East Lothian Edinburgh South West Edinburgh North and Leith Ochil and South Perthshire Stirling
Aberdeen west and Kincardine? Much easier than most of these.
Would be left with 3.5% majority. My model assumes zero LD-to-Con Switching which is why AWK isn't there.
Rest assured, if the Tories get 12 seats AWK will be one of them.
Undoubtedly. I'll go through and refine for a LD vote squeeze tomorrow.
So final bit of quick modelling of approx Scottish poll numbers
Con 32% Lab 15% SNP 43%
Gives 11 Con Seats in order of majority
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Edinburgh South Dumfries and Galloway East Renfrewshire Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Aberdeen South East Lothian Edinburgh South West Edinburgh North and Leith Ochil and South Perthshire Stirling
Aberdeen west and Kincardine? Much easier than most of these.
Would be left with 3.5% majority. My model assumes zero LD-to-Con Switching which is why AWK isn't there.
Rest assured, if the Tories get 12 seats AWK will be one of them.
Undoubtedly. I'll go through and refine for a LD vote squeeze tomorrow.
Re your comment earlier... a dirty model is better than no model!
A small reality check. Maidenhead is the Tories' second safest seat, with a majority of 30k. It would be the equivalent of CON gain Bootle (literally, the majority is the same)
bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.
This is going the way I want. If the Unionist vote is congregating at around 30% for the Tories and Tories winning big in Westminster, I think pro-independence could be a majority now.
Complete rubbish, SNP on 43% is 7% less than they got in 2015 and 2% less than Yes got in 2014
Mail just making sure their readers get out and vote !!!! Can't risk Team Trot.
Don't you think there is the growing concern that a huge Tory majority might actually start *ignoring* papers like the Mail (e.g., and picking something totally at random here, implementing article 40 of Crime and Courts Act, bringing in Leveson 2, forcing press regulation under IMPRESS, etc).
They need to fire a few shots of their own across the Tory bows. We don't want Mrs May getting ideas above her station, especially if it was The Mail wot won it for her...
bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.
This is going the way I want. If the Unionist vote is congregating at around 30% for the Tories and Tories winning big in Westminster, I think pro-independence could be a majority now.
Complete rubbish, SNP on 43% is 7% less than they got in 2015 and 2% less than Yes got in 2014
Greens ? I think the "Unionist" SNP voters have moved to the Tories. So, the 43% and the 50% are like apples and pears.
according to skynews sunday post scotland poll has con 27 snp 43
At Con 27 my model gives Tory seats as Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Edinburgh South Dumfries and Galloway East Renfrewshire Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Aberdeen South
bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.
This is going the way I want. If the Unionist vote is congregating at around 30% for the Tories and Tories winning big in Westminster, I think pro-independence could be a majority now.
How ironic and (for me) sad that the biggest pro-union party's success could, itself, lead to the end of the union.
Completely wrong, the SNP is at its lowest poll rating on the Scottish constituency vote since 2010, if this result turns out correct May will rightly refuse any indyref2 for the duration of the new Parliament
It’s in the nature of collective hysteria that no single act can be adduced to prove its existence. But there is a fin de siecle, self-destructive, decadent craziness about Conference 2017. Somewhere in the wads of twenty somethings and thirtywouldbes jamming the chintzy Bournemouth bars long after they’re normally silent lurks the jitterbugging desperation of the Twenties before the Crash, Berlin between the wars, London as Imperial Glory died with its queen. The collective psyche of this group of individuals who’ve never had it so good has rarely been so uncertain.
Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase their majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain."
I'm looking forward to the 10th anniversary party for that in September.
bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.
This is going the way I want. If the Unionist vote is congregating at around 30% for the Tories and Tories winning big in Westminster, I think pro-independence could be a majority now.
Free to go now they no longer provide Labour with 50 seats?
Delete 50, and replace with ONE. No, more seriously, if Scotland became independent, I'd move there.
You've given up all hope of socialism in the UK, and just want to carve out a little left wing enclave.
I have been quietly and consistently buying Labour < 150 seats on Betfair around the 3.5 mark this week.
I seriously think this will be a wipeout.
Does anyone think Labour's polling will get better between now and election day?
I agree that it will be a wipeout and the way things look now, labour are effectively finished.
But on a constituency level Labour can certainly still win in the following circumstances: - Pro european MP in a strong remain area (eg peter Kyle, Ben Bradshaw etc) - Where they have a popular, longstanding, local MP with a significant personal vote. - Where there is a significant muslim block vote. - Most of London.
May can of course still trip up big time. Corbyn could be superseded. lots of things can happen.
I dont see any of these bets as good value given the uncertainty about this election.
2) I can't process the batshit craziness of these polls
3) I'm actually expecting now the destruction of Labour as a major party instead of thinking it was a remote possibility.
The only way I can see number 3 happening is if one of two things happening
1) the unions (ie unite) pulling funding. with McCluskey in for another term that's not going to happen.
2) labour splits in two
The right of labour could go to the LDs but the left would struggle.
Regarding Labour splitting. It is a big ask on many Northern MPs.
The Party will split - no doubt because Corbyn & co. will not resign. The question is do the sensible ones jump ship now or wait like 1983. Because a few Labour MPs could still win on June 8th but if they jump, they will lose this time.
Not an easy decision. However, the brand name will become less important. The Loonies have tarnished that. Even Kinnock might change his mind.
That'll backfire spectacularly. A lot of people who don't agree with her politics think May has done the decent thing by taking the Brexit poisoned chalice. She's a very popular local MP (my wife's side of the family all live in Maidenhead). This kind of thing doesn't sit well with the British sense of fair play...
The Liberal Democrats will not enter into any coalition deal with either Theresa May’s Conservatives or Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party."
But I still havent found an answer to whether being gay is sinful
He said it wasn't.
Well done Tim how very Liberal.
Pity you tried to evade the answer 4 times in one interview earlier in the week really.
I think the question he evaded was whether gay sex was sinful, not just being gay. You have to be pretty extreme to think just being gay is a sin.
As far as I know, Farron still hasn't answered the one about gay sex. If someone asks him, and he refuses to answer, the whole thing may start up again.
So final bit of quick modelling of approx Scottish poll numbers
Con 32% Lab 15% SNP 43%
Gives 11 Con Seats in order of majority
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Edinburgh South Dumfries and Galloway East Renfrewshire Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Aberdeen South East Lothian Edinburgh South West Edinburgh North and Leith Ochil and South Perthshire Stirling
Aberdeen west and Kincardine? Much easier than most of these.
Would be left with 3.5% majority. My model assumes zero LD-to-Con Switching which is why AWK isn't there.
Rest assured, if the Tories get 12 seats AWK will be one of them.
Undoubtedly. I'll go through and refine for a LD vote squeeze tomorrow.
bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.
This is going the way I want. If the Unionist vote is congregating at around 30% for the Tories and Tories winning big in Westminster, I think pro-independence could be a majority now.
Free to go now they no longer provide Labour with 50 seats?
Delete 50, and replace with ONE. No, more seriously, if Scotland became independent, I'd move there.
You've given up all hope of socialism in the UK, and just want to carve out a little left wing enclave.
Yes. Also, I would , other events permitting mostly personal, not like to stay here. It would be just like living in Texas.
Matt has a point, NPxxMP was praising a Lab MP from Bristol earlier - I read her piece on working for Corbyn and it was damning... there's loads of these on record yet they are now all forced to work for him as PM in this campaign ... surely a few Tory posters/PPBs will just reel off the comments made by those who resigned and/or voted no confidence in him who now are tied to him in this election?
according to skynews sunday post scotland poll has con 27 snp 43
At Con 27 my model gives Tory seats as Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale Edinburgh South Dumfries and Galloway East Renfrewshire Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk Aberdeen South
It's taken me an hour to catch up with the last couple of threads. An hour. And what have I learned?
1. Rotheram thinks he might lose to the Tories so decides to stand in Westminster as insurance 2. The Tories find the keys to the Great Glass Elevator as Labour continue to melt through the floor like a puddle of radioactive slag at Fukushima 3. The Tories want to do an SNP decapitation job which as a non-Tory who thinks even less of the SNP would be piss funny as we say in Lancashire 4. We're only half a week into the campaign with nearly 7 left. Jezbollah hasn't had a chance to stick foot in mouth yet or be accused of being in bed with Kim Jong-Un. Imagine what next week's polls will be. Or the week after that. Or the week after that.
So no wonder then that pants are being shat in Victoria Street with defence of big majority seats seen as essential vs trying to defend small majority seats. And on polling day itself I have to travel up to Crieff with work and stay sober and rested with a busy day Friday 9th and a black tie ball. Bugger...
Comments
2) I can't process the batshit craziness of these polls
3) I'm actually expecting now the destruction of Labour as a major party instead of thinking it was a remote possibility.
SNP: 43% (-7)
CON: 28% (+13)
More Blue MPs north of the border than pandas. – That’s a first…?
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/855892828379066370
I'll spend my winnings either way.
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/855895197619822592
Pity you tried to evade the answer 4 times in one interview earlier in the week really.
The Tories have been very close recently among 55+ to the SNP and the pro-SIndy Europhile grouping is below 30%.
I saw the bet myself, and with so much going on tonight I'm not really reading below the line.
They need to fire a few shots of their own across the Tory bows. We don't want Mrs May getting ideas above her station, especially if it was The Mail wot won it for her...
1) the unions (ie unite) pulling funding. with McCluskey in for another term that's not going to happen.
2) labour splits in two
The right of labour could go to the LDs but the left would struggle.
If the WHill 20/1 >9.5 SCon seats comes off, it will be my biggest political betting success by far.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/S14000046
Miller will get mullered.
But on a constituency level Labour can certainly still win in the following circumstances:
- Pro european MP in a strong remain area (eg peter Kyle, Ben Bradshaw etc)
- Where they have a popular, longstanding, local MP with a significant personal vote.
- Where there is a significant muslim block vote.
- Most of London.
May can of course still trip up big time. Corbyn could be superseded. lots of things can happen.
I dont see any of these bets as good value given the uncertainty about this election.
The Party will split - no doubt because Corbyn & co. will not resign. The question is do the sensible ones jump ship now or wait like 1983. Because a few Labour MPs could still win on June 8th but if they jump, they will lose this time.
Not an easy decision. However, the brand name will become less important. The Loonies have tarnished that. Even Kinnock might change his mind.
I'm just delighted a few of us have made it on in time!
Leaflets, we don't need no stinking leaflets...with apologies to Mel Brooks.
40%: 448
41%: 437
42%: 433
43%: 418
44%: 415
45%: 407
46%: 398
47%: 383
48%: 377
49%: 364
50%: 355
As far as I know, Farron still hasn't answered the one about gay sex. If someone asks him, and he refuses to answer, the whole thing may start up again.
When will Capital Punishment come in ?
No bet for me, although a sell is tempting...
She only started the court case as a selfless public service to clarify a grey area of constitutional law, yes?
I am rarely disappointed.
1. Rotheram thinks he might lose to the Tories so decides to stand in Westminster as insurance
2. The Tories find the keys to the Great Glass Elevator as Labour continue to melt through the floor like a puddle of radioactive slag at Fukushima
3. The Tories want to do an SNP decapitation job which as a non-Tory who thinks even less of the SNP would be piss funny as we say in Lancashire
4. We're only half a week into the campaign with nearly 7 left. Jezbollah hasn't had a chance to stick foot in mouth yet or be accused of being in bed with Kim Jong-Un. Imagine what next week's polls will be. Or the week after that. Or the week after that.
So no wonder then that pants are being shat in Victoria Street with defence of big majority seats seen as essential vs trying to defend small majority seats. And on polling day itself I have to travel up to Crieff with work and stay sober and rested with a busy day Friday 9th and a black tie ball. Bugger...
Did the fat bastard at the front of the photo eat them all?