bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.
This is going the way I want. If the Unionist vote is congregating at around 30% for the Tories and Tories winning big in Westminster, I think pro-independence could be a majority now.
Complete rubbish, SNP on 43% is 7% less than they got in 2015 and 2% less than Yes got in 2014
Greens ? I think the "Unionist" SNP voters have moved to the Tories. So, the 43% and the 50% are like apples and pears.
"Greens" in Scotland? Let's keep this secular plse.
bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.
This is going the way I want. If the Unionist vote is congregating at around 30% for the Tories and Tories winning big in Westminster, I think pro-independence could be a majority now.
Complete rubbish, SNP on 43% is 7% less than they got in 2015 and 2% less than Yes got in 2014
Greens ? I think the "Unionist" SNP voters have moved to the Tories. So, the 43% and the 50% are like apples and pears.
The Greens are not an explicitly nationalist party and if you add the Unionist parties together (Tories, Lab+LD) you get to 55% suggesting the Greens are on 2% at best so zilch change from 2014 and still a comfortable 10% pro Union majority
Miller should she will get absolutely trounced and then maybe we'll be shot of her.
You don't stand against the sitting PM because you think you'll win and it will shut you down. You do it to maintain profile.
But why does she need a profile?
She only started the court case as a selfless public service to clarify a grey area of constitutional law, yes?
I confess I find her continuing motivations uncertain. I'm glad we had the A50 case, and I assumed thereafter she was setting herself as a political commentator of sorts - would this be in aid of that?
Thanks, interesting line from the link to Survation's email:
Survation’s first General Election Voting Intention poll since Theresa May’s call for a General Election gained parliamentary approval shows the Conservative Party with more than a double-digit lead over Labour.
That could only be a triple digit lead: Con 100, Oth 0. Con gain Bootle. And everywhere...
I have been quietly and consistently buying Labour < 150 seats on Betfair around the 3.5 mark this week.
I seriously think this will be a wipeout.
Does anyone think Labour's polling will get better between now and election day?
I agree that it will be a wipeout and the way things look now, labour are effectively finished.
But on a constituency level Labour can certainly still win in the following circumstances: - Pro european MP in a strong remain area (eg peter Kyle, Ben Bradshaw etc) - Where they have a popular, longstanding, local MP with a significant personal vote. - Where there is a significant muslim block vote. - Most of London.
May can of course still trip up big time. Corbyn could be superseded. lots of things can happen.
I dont see any of these bets as good value given the uncertainty about this election.
It's certainly a valid perspective, the question is how the national %age tallies locally. I actually think, contrary to received opinion, that far from Labour having a firewall, Labour are only doing as well as they are nationally because their vote is hyper-concentrated in a few key seats.
I think 3.5 is value, but it's just a hunch - I smell total collapse in the air, brought on more by voter apathy among core Labour voters than a huge switch.
I've been building up a quiet position on Labour < 150 at circa 3.5, but the bulk of my betting is on Con seats over 370.5, where the 1.96 on Betfair earlier today seemed to me fantastic value.
I see the new Scottish Survation would also see the Tories take Moray and oust Angus Robertson twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/855892828379066370
That would be so unbelievably delicious.
If Angus Robertson, the SNP leader at Westminster, lost his seat to the Tories and May got a 100+ majority as most of tonight's polls suggest is possible it would be a brilliant night for her across the board no doubt
Interesting about UKIP. Wonder what they mean by pro-Brexit....
Indeed. I mean, didn't Lamb and Mulholland abstain on A50? Whatever their previous pronouncements, that means they didn't try to block the will of the people, and so were technically pro-Brexit in the end.
There must come a time when we ask ourselves whether this is purely about Corbyn - when we say, OK, he is worse than Foot - but is he that much worse?
The flight from Ukip to May suggests that she is primarily seen as capable of, and willing to, deliver Brexit. Remainers fucked up big time by losing the referendum through complacence and laziness, and they have compounded their mistake ever since by trolling the Leavers with court cases and sneering and general superior silliness, and this is the electorate's answer. T May is indeed a Gordon Brown lookalike in one respect, that she is a big clunking fist.
I have been quietly and consistently buying Labour < 150 seats on Betfair around the 3.5 mark this week.
I seriously think this will be a wipeout.
Does anyone think Labour's polling will get better between now and election day?
I agree that it will be a wipeout and the way things look now, labour are effectively finished.
But on a constituency level Labour can certainly still win in the following circumstances: - Pro european MP in a strong remain area (eg peter Kyle, Ben Bradshaw etc) - Where they have a popular, longstanding, local MP with a significant personal vote. - Where there is a significant muslim block vote. - Most of London.
May can of course still trip up big time. Corbyn could be superseded. lots of things can happen.
I dont see any of these bets as good value given the uncertainty about this election.
It's certainly a valid perspective, the question is how the national %age tallies locally. I actually think, contrary to received opinion, that far from Labour having a firewall, Labour are only doing as well as they are nationally because their vote is hyper-concentrated in a few key seats.
I think 3.5 is value, but it's just a hunch - I smell total collapse in the air, brought on more by voter apathy among core Labour voters than a huge switch.
I've been building up a quiet position on Labour < 150 at circa 3.5, but the bulk of my betting is on Con seats over 370.5, where the 1.96 on Betfair earlier today seemed to me fantastic value.
I think your hunch is right. At some point 'sane' Labour voters will be presented with a choice: keep the party on life support or walk away.
2) I can't process the batshit craziness of these polls
3) I'm actually expecting now the destruction of Labour as a major party instead of thinking it was a remote possibility.
The only way I can see number 3 happening is if one of two things happening
1) the unions (ie unite) pulling funding. with McCluskey in for another term that's not going to happen.
2) labour splits in two
The right of labour could go to the LDs but the left would struggle.
Regarding Labour splitting. It is a big ask on many Northern MPs.
The Party will split - no doubt because Corbyn & co. will not resign. The question is do the sensible ones jump ship now or wait like 1983. Because a few Labour MPs could still win on June 8th but if they jump, they will lose this time.
Not an easy decision. However, the brand name will become less important. The Loonies have tarnished that. Even Kinnock might change his mind.
The idiots let Corbyn in - they will never be able to live that down
Does anyone know where the EdStone is? Might be time to roll it back out.
They had the good sense to destroy it.
Shame, for fundraising they should have sold it off in bits, like the Berlin Wall. I know some rich city boys that would have payed a pretty penny for bits of it.
I have been quietly and consistently buying Labour < 150 seats on Betfair around the 3.5 mark this week.
I seriously think this will be a wipeout.
Does anyone think Labour's polling will get better between now and election day?
I agree that it will be a wipeout and the way things look now, labour are effectively finished.
But on a constituency level Labour can certainly still win in the following circumstances: - Pro european MP in a strong remain area (eg peter Kyle, Ben Bradshaw etc) - Where they have a popular, longstanding, local MP with a significant personal vote. - Where there is a significant muslim block vote. - Most of London.
May can of course still trip up big time. Corbyn could be superseded. lots of things can happen.
I dont see any of these bets as good value given the uncertainty about this election.
It's certainly a valid perspective, the question is how the national %age tallies locally. I actually think, contrary to received opinion, that far from Labour having a firewall, Labour are only doing as well as they are nationally because their vote is hyper-concentrated in a few key seats.
I think 3.5 is value, but it's just a hunch - I smell total collapse in the air, brought on more by voter apathy among core Labour voters than a huge switch.
I've been building up a quiet position on Labour < 150 at circa 3.5, but the bulk of my betting is on Con seats over 370.5, where the 1.96 on Betfair earlier today seemed to me fantastic value.
Yes. It's quite possibly *worse* for labour than the poll swing indicates.
Does anyone know where the EdStone is? Might be time to roll it back out.
They had the good sense to destroy it.
Shame, for fundraising they should have sold it off in bits, like the Berlin Wall. I know some rich city boys that would have payed a pretty penny for bits of it.
I have been quietly and consistently buying Labour < 150 seats on Betfair around the 3.5 mark this week.
I seriously think this will be a wipeout.
Does anyone think Labour's polling will get better between now and election day?
I agree that it will be a wipeout and the way things look now, labour are effectively finished.
But on a constituency level Labour can certainly still win in the following circumstances: - Pro european MP in a strong remain area (eg peter Kyle, Ben Bradshaw etc) - Where they have a popular, longstanding, local MP with a significant personal vote. - Where there is a significant muslim block vote. - Most of London.
May can of course still trip up big time. Corbyn could be superseded. lots of things can happen.
I dont see any of these bets as good value given the uncertainty about this election.
It's certainly a valid perspective, the question is how the national %age tallies locally. I actually think, contrary to received opinion, that far from Labour having a firewall, Labour are only doing as well as they are nationally because their vote is hyper-concentrated in a few key seats.
I think 3.5 is value, but it's just a hunch - I smell total collapse in the air, brought on more by voter apathy among core Labour voters than a huge switch.
I've been building up a quiet position on Labour < 150 at circa 3.5, but the bulk of my betting is on Con seats over 370.5, where the 1.96 on Betfair earlier today seemed to me fantastic value.
The one point no one has mentioned [ as far as I can see ]; how is the Tory vote spread ? Piling up votes in Tory areas would not do much good.
Whilst they will pick up many seats, I don't think UNS is appropriate. Regarding Moray, I don't think Robertson will lose.
Will the Park Ranger reappear ? As a Tory, I mean.
I think your hunch is right. At some point 'sane' Labour voters will be presented with a choice: keep the party on life support or walk away.
they will need a credible, viable, competent and correctly situated politically alternative. the lib dems could be that but they are not there yet. if they still had 50ish seats then it might be possible.
as I said earlier, this election will break the labour party it's difficult to see who cobbles together a credible left wing party alternative afterwards. the union funding will ensure that it is within the 'labour' brand
There must come a time when we ask ourselves whether this is purely about Corbyn - when we say, OK, he is worse than Foot - but is he that much worse?
The flight from Ukip to May suggests that she is primarily seen as capable of, and willing to, deliver Brexit. Remainers fucked up big time by losing the referendum through complacence and laziness, and they have compounded their mistake ever since by trolling the Leavers with court cases and sneering and general superior silliness, and this is the electorate's answer. T May is indeed a Gordon Brown lookalike in one respect, that she is a big clunking fist.
Leaflets, we don't need no stinking leaflets...with apologies to Mel Brooks.
All those poor trees...
What's the gibbet-like structure in the background?
They plan to save Labour with a wicker man style sacrifice?
That reminds me - I liked the 1973 Wicker Man but someone told me the 2006 remake was terrible so I dodged it.
Is that true? I'm watching Season 2 of Fortitude now and I'm not sure I'm going to persevere much longer.
The 2006 remake is appalling. You know how Nicolas Cage is so much in debt to the taxman that he takes any role, regardless of sanity? (See also Robert DeNiro, who has a serious alimony problem). Well, sometimes he overcomes the bad script with an entertaining performance.
But the Wicker Man remake is not one of them. It's awful
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
And more cost to business and the economy....To be honest though, with Corbyn in charge and a 3 day week we won't even notice.
More shopping days, actually. Brits love bank holidays.
One way to boost the Chinese economy further I guess. Actually with all the tax increases etc, will anybody be able to afford to shop. In Jezza's model country people can't even get bog roll.
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
Does anyone know where the EdStone is? Might be time to roll it back out.
They had the good sense to destroy it.
Shame, for fundraising they should have sold it off in bits, like the Berlin Wall. I know some rich city boys that would have payed a pretty penny for bits of it.
I remember being given a chunk of the Berlin Wall in a presentation case that year as a birthday present. It's probably still in the basement in a box.
And I bet it was from a building site down the road too.
They are going from £30 to £300 on eBay now, it looks like.
I really want May to use this freedom she has to stop the generational inequality which is widening to an astonishing gap. The old have the triple-lock pensions, bus passes and housing while the young pay a higher rate of tax (5%+) for the same level of earnings, can't get on the housing ladder and hence struggle to build equity, so therefore can chuck away tens of thousands of pounds a year on rent, never to be seen again.
I think 3.5 is value, but it's just a hunch - I smell total collapse in the air, brought on more by voter apathy among core Labour voters than a huge switch.
Express headlines screaming "1 in 7 Labour voters will go Tory" for the next few weeks builds a perception of "permission" for others to join them without fear of being disloyal.
And in apathy and it could become an ELE tipping point quite quickly.
Is it conceivable that they come third in vote share - or below 20%?
I think 3.5 is value, but it's just a hunch - I smell total collapse in the air, brought on more by voter apathy among core Labour voters than a huge switch.
Express headlines screaming "1 in 7 Labour voters will go Tory" for the next few weeks builds a perception of "permission" for others to join them without fear of being disloyal.
And in apathy and it could become an ELE tipping point quite quickly.
Is it conceivable that they come third in vote share - or below 20%?
Conceivable? A lot more than 48 hours ago.
I won't believe it until I'm losing money on the result.
While the SNP still dominate Glasgow and the central belt, Tories making inroads into the borders and NorthEast, Perthshire and Highlands and Edinburgh (where the LDs also take a seat)
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
Can people stop pretending Gina Miller is anything more than a self-publicising prat?
And profoundly stupid. Without her court case May's justification for calling the election would be far more open to question; this latest stunt by Miller just confirms that she was right to call it.
I have been quietly and consistently buying Labour < 150 seats on Betfair around the 3.5 mark this week.
I seriously think this will be a wipeout.
Does anyone think Labour's polling will get better between now and election day?
I agree that it will be a wipeout and the way things look now, labour are effectively finished.
But on a constituency level Labour can certainly still win in the following circumstances: - Pro european MP in a strong remain area (eg peter Kyle, Ben Bradshaw etc) - Where they have a popular, longstanding, local MP with a significant personal vote. - Where there is a significant muslim block vote. - Most of London.
May can of course still trip up big time. Corbyn could be superseded. lots of things can happen.
I dont see any of these bets as good value given the uncertainty about this election.
The question is how the national %age tallies locally. I actually think, contrary to received opinion, that far from Labour having a firewall, Labour are only doing as well as they are nationally because their vote is concentrated in a few key seats.
I think 3.5 is value, but it's a hunch - I smell collapse in the air, brought on more by voter apathy among core Labour voters than a huge switch.
I've been building up a quiet position on Labour < 150 at circa 3.5, but the bulk of my betting is on Con seats over 370.5, where the 1.96 on Betfair earlier today seemed to me fantastic value.
The one point no one has mentioned [ as far as I can see ]; how is the Tory vote spread ? Piling up votes in Tory areas would not do much good.
Whilst they will pick up many seats, I don't think UNS is appropriate. Regarding Moray, I don't think Robertson will lose.
Will the Park Ranger reappear ? As a Tory, I mean.
I don't have the exact stats to hand but I believe someone posted on here yesterday that the swing from Lab to Con in Labour Leave seats is about 3x that of safe Con seats. Definitely DYOR as I can't find the relevant post, but it looks like Labour Leave seats will swing heavily to Conservative. Again, it's a hunch, but I think that 'Nice Mrs May' will do very well with Essex Man and small-c conservative C2DE voters in the north. That to me points to an extinction-level event for Labour.
I'm also an optimist for the Lib Dems and I think they will poll a bit higher than most on here suspect, at the higher end of 20 - 30 seats. There is a lot of remainer anger out there and I think the organised Lib Dem PR machine will really capitalise on it as Labour sink further and further into disarray. The next six weeks will not be kind on Labour, they are divided, demoralised, and have no effective campaign machine. Things will get a lot worse for them from here.
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
Was Survation carried out any later than others which would provide at least some support for Mail on Sunday headline?
Survation interviewed 2,072 UK adults aged 18+ between 21st - 22nd April 2017. Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
ComRes - Methodology Note: ComRes interviewed 2,074 GB adults online between 19th and 20th April 2017. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all adults and by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full data at www.comresglobal.com
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
And more cost to business and the economy....To be honest though, with Corbyn in charge and a 3 day week we won't even notice.
Surely the three day week was a Conservative policy?
You clearly missed the news of who is writing the Labour manifesto....some bloke even nuttier than Corbyn, that wrote a book with all sorts of completely bonkers shit of which 3 day week was one of them.
There must come a time when we ask ourselves whether this is purely about Corbyn - when we say, OK, he is worse than Foot - but is he that much worse?
The flight from Ukip to May suggests that she is primarily seen as capable of, and willing to, deliver Brexit. Remainers fucked up big time by losing the referendum through complacence and laziness, and they have compounded their mistake ever since by trolling the Leavers with court cases and sneering and general superior silliness, and this is the electorate's answer. T May is indeed a Gordon Brown lookalike in one respect, that she is a big clunking fist.
I think that is where the greatest betrayal will be. May, quite cleverly, brought forward the election day, ably assisted by the stupidest man on earth, not just for the massive majority.
The majority means that Hard Brexiters will actually have less say. She could then negotiate the divorce bill. Nothing will move until that is settled.
She also effectively moves the next election to 2022 from 2020. So, if she pays £30bn, say as a divorce settlement, it would be old story.
Actually, under the circumstances, the only sensible move.
I don't think she brought the election forward to be more Hard Brexit. Plus other pledges can be junked, like, no tax increases, triple lock etc.
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
Was Survation carried out any later than others which would provide at least some support for Mail on Sunday headline?
Survation interviewed 2,072 UK adults aged 18+ between 21st - 22nd April 2017. Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
ComRes - Methodology Note: ComRes interviewed 2,074 GB adults online between 19th and 20th April 2017. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all adults and by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full data at www.comresglobal.com
If Sturgeon was confident about the will for Indyref, she'd make this election the barometer for Indyref2, as it stands even if she doesn't May will point and say that there was no will in the GE for it, so one can't be granted. May may have inadvertently stalled the issue for another four or so years by which time we may be past peak SNP.
Can people stop pretending Gina Miller is anything more than a self-publicising prat?
No. But she is.
It's less that. It's that she strikes me as someone who's always got her own way in life, on everything, and can't stand (or understand) that she won't on this.
Was Survation carried out any later than others which would provide at least some support for Mail on Sunday headline?
Survation interviewed 2,072 UK adults aged 18+ between 21st - 22nd April 2017. Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
ComRes - Methodology Note: ComRes interviewed 2,074 GB adults online between 19th and 20th April 2017. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all adults and by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full data at www.comresglobal.com
YouGov - Thurs/Fri
Opinium - 19th-20th April
Do you have a link to the yougov poll?
Is Survation an "old fashioned" poll ? I mean not online. Could this be why it is different ?
If Sturgeon was confident about the will for Indyref, she'd make this election the barometer for Indyref2, as it stands even if she doesn't May will point and say that there was no will in the GE for it, so one can't be granted. May may have inadvertently stalled the issue for another four or so years by which time we may be past peak SNP.
I wonder if this was the main motivation for the GE?
Was Survation carried out any later than others which would provide at least some support for Mail on Sunday headline?
Survation interviewed 2,072 UK adults aged 18+ between 21st - 22nd April 2017. Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
ComRes - Methodology Note: ComRes interviewed 2,074 GB adults online between 19th and 20th April 2017. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all adults and by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full data at www.comresglobal.com
YouGov - Thurs/Fri
Opinium - 19th-20th April
Do you have a link to the yougov poll?
Is Survation an "old fashioned" poll ? I mean not online. Could this be why it is different ?
Does anyone know where the EdStone is? Might be time to roll it back out.
They had the good sense to destroy it.
Shame, for fundraising they should have sold it off in bits, like the Berlin Wall. I know some rich city boys that would have payed a pretty penny for bits of it.
I seem to recall that idea was floated.
it obviously sunk but, being Labour, they had to try.
Betfair Sportsbook seem to have added a few more markets.
If you're really long on the Tories in Scotland, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock looks interesting at 14/1 (assuming the Tory lead continues to grow, and the SNP stalls) and the LDs and SCon odds look interesting in Argyll and Bute too.
Was Survation carried out any later than others which would provide at least some support for Mail on Sunday headline?
Survation interviewed 2,072 UK adults aged 18+ between 21st - 22nd April 2017. Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
ComRes - Methodology Note: ComRes interviewed 2,074 GB adults online between 19th and 20th April 2017. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all adults and by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full data at www.comresglobal.com
Comments
https://twitter.com/AllisterHeath/status/855899357811527681
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
Was there a YouGov poll?
I'm on.
Survation’s first General Election Voting Intention poll since Theresa May’s call for a General Election gained parliamentary approval shows the Conservative Party with more than a double-digit lead over Labour.
That could only be a triple digit lead: Con 100, Oth 0. Con gain Bootle. And everywhere...
I think 3.5 is value, but it's just a hunch - I smell total collapse in the air, brought on more by voter apathy among core Labour voters than a huge switch.
I've been building up a quiet position on Labour < 150 at circa 3.5, but the bulk of my betting is on Con seats over 370.5, where the 1.96 on Betfair earlier today seemed to me fantastic value.
The flight from Ukip to May suggests that she is primarily seen as capable of, and willing to, deliver Brexit. Remainers fucked up big time by losing the referendum through complacence and laziness, and they have compounded their mistake ever since by trolling the Leavers with court cases and sneering and general superior silliness, and this is the electorate's answer. T May is indeed a Gordon Brown lookalike in one respect, that she is a big clunking fist.
https://twitter.com/POTUS/status/855899715375964160
Is that true? I'm watching Season 2 of Fortitude now and I'm not sure I'm going to persevere much longer.
Bit harsh I thought......
I've met Gina Miller and she's definitely fit [checks over shoulder for MrsM] oh yes.
Whilst they will pick up many seats, I don't think UNS is appropriate. Regarding Moray, I don't think Robertson will lose.
Will the Park Ranger reappear ? As a Tory, I mean.
as I said earlier, this election will break the labour party it's difficult to see who cobbles together a credible left wing party alternative afterwards. the union funding will ensure that it is within the 'labour' brand
But the Wicker Man remake is not one of them. It's awful
2006 Wicker Man has some truly epic unintentional hilarity.
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-04-22/labour-seeks-to-create-four-new-bank-holidays-corbyn-announces/
http://twitter.com/jxckhy/status/855897362916683777
And I bet it was from a building site down the road too.
They are going from £30 to £300 on eBay now, it looks like.
A. Don't like foreigners;
B. Like the government spending money as long as somebody else is paying for it.
Not many surprises there.
They just won't vote for him even if they do like some of his policies.
And in apathy and it could become an ELE tipping point quite quickly.
Is it conceivable that they come third in vote share - or below 20%?
Was Survation carried out any later than others which would provide at least some support for Mail on Sunday headline?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017
I won't believe it until I'm losing money on the result.
I'm also an optimist for the Lib Dems and I think they will poll a bit higher than most on here suspect, at the higher end of 20 - 30 seats. There is a lot of remainer anger out there and I think the organised Lib Dem PR machine will really capitalise on it as Labour sink further and further into disarray. The next six weeks will not be kind on Labour, they are divided, demoralised, and have no effective campaign machine. Things will get a lot worse for them from here.
ComRes - Methodology Note: ComRes interviewed 2,074 GB adults online between 19th and 20th April 2017. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all adults and by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full data at www.comresglobal.com
YouGov - Thurs/Fri
Opinium - 19th-20th April
The majority means that Hard Brexiters will actually have less say. She could then negotiate the divorce bill. Nothing will move until that is settled.
She also effectively moves the next election to 2022 from 2020. So, if she pays £30bn, say as a divorce settlement, it would be old story.
Actually, under the circumstances, the only sensible move.
I don't think she brought the election forward to be more Hard Brexit. Plus other pledges can be junked, like, no tax increases, triple lock etc.
what a stupid idea.
Instead I'm going to dig out the last few episodes of House of Cards S4 for a quick refresh - Season 5 starts on 30th May.
If you're really long on the Tories in Scotland, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock looks interesting at 14/1 (assuming the Tory lead continues to grow, and the SNP stalls) and the LDs and SCon odds look interesting in Argyll and Bute too.
I can give you ComRes
http://www.comresglobal.com/polls/sunday-mirror-voting-intention-and-political-poll-april-2017/
And Opinium though
http://opinium.co.uk/political-polling-19th-april-2017/
https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/855721124709236736
What do they have to lose at this point?