That would truly be astonishing. But I would be disappointed if the SNP poll quite as high as that. (Ditto the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems probably both a bit low).
Ahem - we have the Wales one to look forward to - anyone think it will look good for the Trots?
The Welsh local elections in May are looking increasingly interesting. With postal voting already starting on the current polling Labour must be really wetting themselves.
I know that PBers seem to be shocked by the polls, but I'm not. Corbyn has literally no coherent policy on the big issue of the day which will decide Britain's future for decades to come: Brexit. In a time when France could elect Le Pen, and we could see the EU project totally collapse, in time of heightening tensions between North Korea and the United States etc - why would anyone want Corbyn guiding this country through such a worrying period? For instance, looking at some of the difficulties facing my generation in this country - Corbyn has literally no answers to them.
In the last couple of days, I've seriously thought about switching to LDs permanently. They are not perfect by any means, and are bit too Europhile for my liking. But they've spoken about issues I care about, they have at least a clear stance on Brexit (which is more than Labour) and they are relatively sane lefties, and not hard left nuts which have infiltrated Labour. Obviously, we'll see how the election goes, and whether Corbyn gets voted out after Labour are clearly decimated on June 8th. But it does seem that Labour of the old isn't coming back, and maybe, just maybe they as a political party have expired and a new left-centre party (LDs?) needs to come and take it's place. I already know that I'm voting LD in May local elections, and in June, and I think I'll stick with the party for the foreseeable future.
Fair comments - but be aware once the trots have killed off Labour they will be looking for the next vehicle to latch onto.
Tories, remember this night - it will not get any better for you than the dreams you will have as a result. The rest of us quaver in fear at what a majority of such a scale would do.
To bed.
In all seriousness, it is bad for the nation. It results in terrible policies.
Ideally given the situation, far better to have 50-60 Tory majority, Corbyn and all his like gone from Labour Party, best of whatever Brexit the Tories can deliver.
Big majorities lead to complacency, arrogance and laziness. Such is life.
Of all the really weird things tonight that Sunday Mail front page is surely the weirdest. What on earth were they thinking?
They're worried TMay might be so far ahead she can ignore them, and come to think she can actually raise some taxes without worrying about electoral impact for once, so time to remind her they are not her lapdogs and can still cause trouble.
It does seem that she is going, at one bound, to be free of all the slightly weird little pressure groups on the edges of the Tory party (and of reason for that matter). The problem is I am still not completely convinced she is completely free of these foibles herself.
Earlier polling upthread showed 44% of people thought a landslide for the tories was a good thing. Even I as a non-Tory am wondering if I would prefer to have a large Tory majority than a small one, exactly because it means May can govern on her own terms rather than at the whim of various pressure groups.
I overheard a couple of colleagues the other day, not very politically aware from what I could hear of their conversation, but basically all agreeing that a big majority for may would get us a better Brexit deal. The message seems to be filtering through.
If the Tories are going to win , I would prefer a very large majority. It ticks many boxes !
I look forward to hearing you have ticked the Conservative box on June 8....
If there is to be a majority on this scale, caused by literally there being 2 Con voters for every Lab voter (my brain will not accept that could be possible, and I might struggle even after it is the case), I look forward to all the people who will be astounded because they don't know anyone who votes Tory.
And the answer will be, statistically you do, mate, they just don't tell you. Then the horror when they realise someone they love probably voted Tory...
Next question: are there still any shy Tories out there - especially in Scotland?
What if the SNP-Con gap isn't the 11% suggested by Panelbase? What if it's... smaller?
I'm in "too good to be true" territory again, aren't I? Anyway, hopefully from now on there will be regular Scottish polling. The biggest problem with believing these big jumps in Tory support is that there aren't enough surveys from Scotland to establish a trend.
The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.
Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him
Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.
But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
It's important to note that this prediction assume UNS, and therefore do not count unionist tactical voting, so there could be even more blue MPs in Scotland.
The tories are on a roll in Scotland. Great leader, strong message, series of fails by snp. Remember that Ruth Davidson is a remainer and does not support leaving the single market.
I wonder how James Kelly will be spinning this one
The SNP are still well into the forties and will still be by far the biggest party in Scotland whatever happens pretty much.
I'm sure in 4 or 5 years time polls might be showing the Tories behind in Hartlepool too here.
Interesting that there are no ultra ultra safe seats in Scotland as there are in England - if the SNP had hit 55% last time round Orkney and Shetland might have dropped. On 55%, the Conservatives will still be 15,000+ short in Knowsley.
Will Theresa and Ruth go down in history as the ladies who saved the Union?
Now now, let's not get ahead of ourselves.
That said, the trend in polling news out of Scotland is the most encouraging, and the best reason to display a degree of cautious optimism about Scotland's continuing place in the UK, for many years.
That would truly be astonishing. But I would be disappointed if the SNP poll quite as high as that. (Ditto the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems probably both a bit low).
Ahem - we have the Wales one to look forward to - anyone think it will look good for the Trots?
The Welsh local elections in May are looking increasingly interesting. With postal voting already starting on the current polling Labour must be really wetting themselves.
Of all the really weird things tonight that Sunday Mail front page is surely the weirdest. What on earth were they thinking?
They're worried TMay might be so far ahead she can ignore them, and come to think she can actually raise some taxes without worrying about electoral impact for once, so time to remind her they are not her lapdogs and can still cause trouble.
It does seem that she is going, at one bound, to be free of all the slightly weird little pressure groups on the edges of the Tory party (and of reason for that matter). The problem is I am still not completely convinced she is completely free of these foibles herself.
Earlier polling upthread showed 44% of people thought a landslide for the tories was a good thing. Even I as a non-Tory am wondering if I would prefer to have a large Tory majority than a small one, exactly because it means May can govern on her own terms rather than at the whim of various pressure groups.
I overheard a couple of colleagues the other day, not very politically aware from what I could hear of their conversation, but basically all agreeing that a big majority for may would get us a better Brexit deal. The message seems to be filtering through.
If the Tories are going to win , I would prefer a very large majority. It ticks many boxes !
I look forward to hearing you have ticked the Conservative box on June 8....
If there is to be a majority on this scale, caused by literally there being 2 Con voters for every Lab voter (my brain will not accept that could be possible, and I might struggle even after it is the case), I look forward to all the people who will be astounded because they don't know anyone who votes Tory.
And the answer will be, statistically you do, mate, they just don't tell you. Then the horror when they realise someone they love probably voted Tory...
I want those 'never kissed a Tory' shirts to come back in fashion. Could lead to some fun.
Why do people act so shocked about these polls? As if Labour haven't been dire in Scotland for months now.
Ruth Davidson comes across as moderate and sensible every time I've seen her (she's also anti-Trump, and that always gets plus points from me). Kezia Dugdale is a non-entity. Davidson is the anti-thesis of negative stereotypes about Tories. I'm not surprised she is doing well.
On pb, the Scottish Tory surge has been predicted as long as I've been posting, almost 3 Scottish generations ago, it'd be a shock to see it finally arrive.
Me, I'm adjusting prediction from snp 54-55 to 50-51.
In the last couple of days, I've seriously thought about switching to LDs permanently. They are not perfect by any means, and are bit too Europhile for my liking. But they've spoken about issues I care about, they have at least a clear stance on Brexit (which is more than Labour) and they are relatively sane lefties, and not hard left nuts which have infiltrated Labour. Obviously, we'll see how the election goes, and whether Corbyn gets voted out after Labour are clearly decimated on June 8th. But it does seem that Labour of the old isn't coming back, and maybe, just maybe they as a political party have expired and a new left-centre party (LDs?) needs to come and take it's place. I already know that I'm voting LD in May local elections, and in June, and I think I'll stick with the party for the foreseeable future.
Never switch to anyone 'permanently'. But I think labour need be worried when people looking for a left of centre option like you are actively turned off by what they are doing.
I try not to overreact to things because I am a consistently boring 30 year old fart, but the polls the last week have, despite the 7 long weeks to go and all my instincts, having me doubt my long held view that Lab will do better than feared and the Tories worse.
Re your first point: true. It's just that since Labour have had Corbyn as their leader, I've felt politically homeless. Although I'm not a party loyalist type, I've put hope in Labour being electable because they are the biggest centre-left party in Britain. But even going back to the Brown days, I've never really been happy with the direction of the party. I've just hoped that along the way, that they'll become a decent, credible social democratic/liberal-left party. I know David Miliband is disliked on here a lot, but I thought he was Labour's best bet in 2010, and I think the party would've been in a far better state if he had been elected leader in 2010.
I think Labour are seriously going to get destroyed. And it's all self-inflicted. I believe that a genuinely, moderate centre-left party would get a hearing in this country. But hard-left style socialism? No, most people including myself genuinely do not want that. I have as much issue with Corbyn's leadership qualities as I do with his ideology. What's worse is that some of his supporters that I know in real life, compare him/see him the same as an old school Labour politician, like Tony Benn or even Harold Wilson (I'm not kidding). They don't see him as part of the same school of militant leftism which nearly killed Labour in the 1980s.
@AndyJS Well, my first election was in 2015 - I voted (not enthusiastically) for Ed Miliband. I actually like Ed a lot more since he lost in 2015, and find myself agreeing with him on quite a lot of issues these days.
Le Pen 26% Fillon 22% Macron 21% Mélenchon 17% Hamon 7%
The Tribune de Genève in Switzerland will also be publishing one, or already has.
It's apparently polling from 'one of the candidate's teams'. Who would benefit from a poll like this?
Presumably Macron.
Le Pen looks a bit too high, however given we know Fillon's base will likely turn out while Macron's is untested there is reason to believe the order is not implausible.
Admittedly I have not been following the French elections as much as many on hear. so correct me if I am worn would a Fillon Vs Le Pen run off put be an Anglo-Phile Vs a Euro-Phobe, so ether way we could get a better deal than expected a few months ago.
I was watching French telly and it appears some LR deputies, not just Fillon, seem quite pragmatic about the Brexit talks and dismissing the "tough" line from the EU/Merkel. It would likely mean there would be some internal EU squabbles over the negotiations though.
Tories, remember this night - it will not get any better for you than the dreams you will have as a result. The rest of us quaver in fear at what a majority of such a scale would do.
To bed.
In all seriousness, it is bad for the nation. It results in terrible policies.
Ideally given the situation, far better to have 50-60 Tory majority, Corbyn and all his like gone from Labour Party, best of whatever Brexit the Tories can deliver.
Don't worry, the final result will probably be Tories on 40% and a majority of 80-90.
IRA supporting Corbyn was in Warrington today (where I live for my sins) and from the comments my son showed me on social media tonight he went down like a cup of cold sick as you could well imagine, and Warrington is generally a Labour supporting town
And I am guessing a lot of people still aren't fully aware of Corbyn's history....
We have barely started on Get Corbyn campaign.
this is all establishment/media crap! What the UK needs is socialism, nay Corbynism (we'll fill in the details later)
The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.
Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him
Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.
But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
Reminder: this man now has 45 days left to convince the English and Welsh that a Far Left minority Government, led by him and his terrorist-lauding mate McDonnell and propped up by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is desirable.
John Oliver will be amusing if he mentions this. He hates Tories and he doesn't conceal that, but I cannot imagine he's a Corbyn fan, so I expect he'll focus on how May seems to have lied about calling a vote, how the snp will be pushing demands, and How its to avoid shit up Brexit creek.
How can Ruth not stand for Westminster with polls like these?
Because she's probably the more interested in saving the Union than being an MP
I think if she ran away to Westminster, that would be the end of the tory revival north of the border. I really hope she stays there to fight Nicola, only she is able to take her on.
With the Panelbase poll, if the SCons take 2% from both Lab and the SNP between now and the GE they'll return 19 MPs, assuming UNS. But of course once tactical voting comes into play that number could be higher. Buy SCOns...
The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.
Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him
Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.
But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
Don't liberals support assisted dying?
For our democracy to function, we need the Far Left to be swept back to the margins where it belongs. Labour has been captured by the Far Left.
The sooner that Labour is destroyed, the sooner we can have some kind of Liberal party as the main opposition instead. Simple.
If the Tories are back in Scotland, then I am pleased for them, as they endured years of pain and ridicule.
I do hope if the Tories are back in Scotland, they they have also learnt something from the years of failure, and they try and treat the country with more respect.
(I was never very convinced that Brexit was the moment for InyRef2. I always thought that waiting for the inevitable pain after Brexit was a better moment, strategically speaking. So I think Nicola may have taken a misstep).
Looks like it may be the doomsday scenario in France with Le Pen and Fillon in the final round if these last few surveys are correct.
There is a La Libre* survey with Le Pen on 26%, Fillon on 22% and Macron has 21% (see here). I'm slightly sceptical, if only because it has DNA at zero.
* La Libre is a Belgian website. I have no knowledge of whether it is a reputable source or not.
The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.
Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him
Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.
But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
Sturgeon playing politics with calls for a 2nd Sindy ref has rightly bitten her on the backside.
She's laid down a marker. If/when she's proven right about Brexit, this provides the perfect context to win the referendum. The Tory tide will go back out and unveil an independent nation.
Le Pen 26% Fillon 22% Macron 21% Mélenchon 17% Hamon 7%
The Tribune de Genève in Switzerland will also be publishing one, or already has.
It's apparently polling from 'one of the candidate's teams'. Who would benefit from a poll like this?
Presumably Macron.
Le Pen looks a bit too high, however given we know Fillon's base will likely turn out while Macron's is untested there is reason to believe the order is not implausible.
Admittedly I have not been following the French elections as much as many on hear. so correct me if I am worn would a Fillon Vs Le Pen run off put be an Anglo-Phile Vs a Euro-Phobe, so ether way we could get a better deal than expected a few months ago.
I was watching French telly and it appears some LR deputies, not just Fillon, seem quite pragmatic about the Brexit talks and dismissing the "tough" line from the EU/Merkel. It would likely mean there would be some internal EU squabbles over the negotiations though.
Fillon is pro EU if a shade more Eurosceptic than Macron and has said he wants to attract business from London back to Paris so do not expect any great favours from him, Le Pen is still the only candidate who really backed Brexit
We've seen some seismic stuff this evening. Somehow this tops everything that has come before.
It's barely believable stuff. Just mind blowing.
If in direct marginals SCons secure a swing 3% higher than nationally (i.e. 6% of the electorate go from Lib/Lab to SCon) then the SCons would return 19 MPs. Which would be... amazing I think.
How can Ruth not stand for Westminster with polls like these?
Because she's probably the more interested in saving the Union than being an MP
I think if she ran away to Westminster, that would be the end of the tory revival north of the border. I really hope she stays there to fight Nicola, only she is able to take her on.
I think like TMay bald facedly uturning for partisan reasons on calling a ge and, seemingly, not getting punished for it, indeed getting rewarded, there may not be a better time for Davidson to switch to Westminster. It would be said to be running away, of hokyrood just being a sideshow to the unionist parties, but off the back off a great result in Scotland (6 or above) there's have been a breakthrough of votes that might mean she could afford to justify it as fighting even more for the union in Westminster as there's enough momentum in Scotland without her. We shall see. They haven't won any yet, and 2-3 would be a good result.
It's important to note that this prediction assume UNS, and therefore do not count unionist tactical voting, so there could be even more blue MPs in Scotland.
The tories are on a roll in Scotland. Great leader, strong message, series of fails by snp. Remember that Ruth Davidson is a remainer and does not support leaving the single market.
first and foremost, she's a politician and knows she cannot win every time
With the Panelbase poll, if the SCons take 2% from both Lab and the SNP between now and the GE they'll return 19 MPs, assuming UNS. But of course once tactical voting comes into play that number could be higher. Buy SCOns...
Will Theresa and Ruth go down in history as the ladies who saved the Union?
Now now, let's not get ahead of ourselves.
That said, the trend in polling news out of Scotland is the most encouraging, and the best reason to display a degree of cautious optimism about Scotland's continuing place in the UK, for many years.
The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.
Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him
Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.
But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
Will Theresa and Ruth go down in history as the ladies who saved the Union?
Now now, let's not get ahead of ourselves.
That said, the trend in polling news out of Scotland is the most encouraging, and the best reason to display a degree of cautious optimism about Scotland's continuing place in the UK, for many years.
Sturgeon playing politics with calls for a 2nd Sindy ref has rightly bitten her on the backside.
She's laid down a marker. If/when she's proven right about Brexit, this provides the perfect context to win the referendum. The Tory tide will go back out and unveil an independent nation.
Le Pen 26% Fillon 22% Macron 21% Mélenchon 17% Hamon 7%
The Tribune de Genève in Switzerland will also be publishing one, or already has.
It's apparently polling from 'one of the candidate's teams'. Who would benefit from a poll like this?
Presumably Macron.
Le Pen looks a bit too high, however given we know Fillon's base will likely turn out while Macron's is untested there is reason to believe the order is not implausible.
Admittedly I have not been following the French elections as much as many on hear. so correct me if I am worn would a Fillon Vs Le Pen run off put be an Anglo-Phile Vs a Euro-Phobe, so ether way we could get a better deal than expected a few months ago.
I was watching French telly and it appears some LR deputies, not just Fillon, seem quite pragmatic about the Brexit talks and dismissing the "tough" line from the EU/Merkel. It would likely mean there would be some internal EU squabbles over the negotiations though.
Fillon is pro EU if a shade more Eurosceptic than Macron and has said he wants to attract business from London back to Paris so do not expect any great favours from him, Le Pen is still the only candidate who really backed Brexit
Of course, I think the big difference re:Macron is the LR aren't as fussed about what is in it for the EU and do not want to see France's interests harmed because of EU intransigence.
Sturgeon playing politics with calls for a 2nd Sindy ref has rightly bitten her on the backside.
She's laid down a marker. If/when she's proven right about Brexit, this provides the perfect context to win the referendum. The Tory tide will go back out and unveil an independent nation.
wouldn't it be delightful if the Tory Scottish surge continued till polling day and the Tories end up with one more seat than the SNP could you imagine Sturgeons response . Her argument for indyref2 blown out of the water . we are in surreal territory here tonight with these polls who knows what could happen
Tories, remember this night - it will not get any better for you than the dreams you will have as a result. The rest of us quaver in fear at what a majority of such a scale would do.
To bed.
In all seriousness, it is bad for the nation. It results in terrible policies.
Ideally given the situation, far better to have 50-60 Tory majority, Corbyn and all his like gone from Labour Party, best of whatever Brexit the Tories can deliver.
Don't worry, the final result will probably be Tories on 40% and a majority of 80-90.
Perhaps. If Labour doesn't totally meltdown and the staffers at party HQ succeed in stemming the seat losses (i.e. so that they're terrible, but not totally catastrophic) then maybe the Tory majority can be held down as low as that.
Except what makes anybody think that the Conservatives will finish on a vote share as low as 40%? Cameron made 37% last time; Labour is in pieces and Corbyn surely can't capture even as much as the vastly superior Gordon Brown did when he only managed 29%; Ukip seems to have started sliding downhill and shipping most of the lost voters to Theresa May in the process; and that only leaves the Liberal Democrats, who up until now have been reviving at a glacial pace and primarily at the expense of Labour.
Moreover, in terms of the Parliamentary arithmetic, we haven't even started discussing the Tories' huge advantages on leadership and economic competence, or the possibility of a modest revival in Scotland and a major advance in Wales, or their ability to outperform their national vote swing in target marginal seats.
Regardless, even if Tory support softens a bit, I still don't see how they poll any worse than about 42-43%, save for some really epic black swan event.
The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.
Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him
Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.
But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
You're so lucky - when I were a lad We had to wait 5 years between GEs. Aye, they were dark times.
How can Ruth not stand for Westminster with polls like these?
Because she's probably the more interested in saving the Union than being an MP
I think if she ran away to Westminster, that would be the end of the tory revival north of the border. I really hope she stays there to fight Nicola, only she is able to take her on.
I think like TMay bald facedly uturning for partisan reasons on calling a ge and, seemingly, not getting punished for it, indeed getting rewarded, there may not be a better time for Davidson to switch to Westminster. It would be said to be running away, of hokyrood just being a sideshow to the unionist parties, but off the back off a great result in Scotland (6 or above) there's have been a breakthrough of votes that might mean she could afford to justify it as fighting even more for the union in Westminster as there's enough momentum in Scotland without her. We shall see. They haven't won any yet, and 2-3 would be a good result.
The lady herself has said he has no wish to be a Westminster MP.
Do we remember 2010 when we had the first debate and we got cleggasm in the polls,another week and cleggasm started to fade.
We have 6 weeks so anything can happen like have these polls taken in the last couple of bad days of bad news reported on the con's in the media on the grand old duke of Duke of york strategy on tax.
wouldn't it be delightful if the Tory Scottish surge continued till polling day and the Tories end up with one more seat than the SNP could you imagine Sturgeons response . Her argument for indyref2 blown out of the water . we are in surreal territory here tonight with these polls who knows what could happen
I think everyone on PB would have gone deaf due to the relentless klaxons.
If the Tories are back in Scotland, then I am pleased for them, as they endured years of pain and ridicule.
I do hope if the Tories are back in Scotland, they they have also learnt something from the years of failure, and they try and treat the country with more respect.
Sending lots of sitting MSPs to Westminster isn't a good start then.
I'm reminded of a line in Blairs memoir, on the 97 election, he says at one point he was worried that he would defeat the tories too strongly, leaving Britain in an unhealthy one party state.
I wonder if May would share a similar thought, would she be happy if a true wipeout occurred, and the next parliament resembled the Russian Duma?
Do we remember 2010 when we had the first debate and we got cleggasm in the polls,another week and cleggasm started to fade.
We have 6 weeks so anything can happen like have these polls taken in the last couple of bad days of bad news reported on the con's in the media on the grand old duke of Duke of york strategy on tax.
Very true.
Has been a long evening, probably about time for bed.
Do we remember 2010 when we had the first debate and we got cleggasm in the polls,another week and cleggasm started to fade.
.
The voice of reason. We will have Tories only up by single figures at some point. Possibly after the locals (unless this ge surge hits them - lot of lds might think they'd have done well but for that ).
Could we see 500 Conservative seats? It sounds ridiculous. But with the SNP on 50%, and the opposition fragmented, they got all but three seats in Scotland.
The UK vote share could look awfully like Scottish one. Could it have a similar outcome?
How can Ruth not stand for Westminster with polls like these?
Because she's probably the more interested in saving the Union than being an MP
I think if she ran away to Westminster, that would be the end of the tory revival north of the border. I really hope she stays there to fight Nicola, only she is able to take her on.
I think like TMay bald facedly uturning for partisan reasons on calling a ge and, seemingly, not getting punished for it, indeed getting rewarded, there may not be a better time for Davidson to switch to Westminster. It would be said to be running away, of hokyrood just being a sideshow to the unionist parties, but off the back off a great result in Scotland (6 or above) there's have been a breakthrough of votes that might mean she could afford to justify it as fighting even more for the union in Westminster as there's enough momentum in Scotland without her. We shall see. They haven't won any yet, and 2-3 would be a good result.
The lady herself has said he has no wish to be a Westminster MP.
Yes, and TMay said no early GE. Things can changed she felt she could do more in Westminster. But for Scon in would probably be best if she was indeed hoping one day, somehow, to be first minister.
Reminder: this man now has 45 days left to convince the English and Welsh that a Far Left minority Government, led by him and his terrorist-lauding mate McDonnell and propped up by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is desirable.
Could we see 500 Conservative seats? It sounds ridiculous. But with the SNP on 50%, and the opposition fragmented, they got all but three seats in Scotland.
The UK vote share could look awfully like Scottish one. Could it have a similar outcome?
If you Baxter the 50% poll the Tories only get 425 seats.
The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.
Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him
Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.
But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
You only need to do it once and get rid of Corbyn - he IS a national disaster
Apocalypse is a schoolgirl - she seems smart enough to learn, given time.
LOL if I was a school girl I wouldn't be voting for the second time in a GE!
You're so lucky - when I were a lad We had to wait 5 years between GEs. Aye, they were dark times.
Tbf, this will probably be the last time for a long time that a snap GE is called. Post New Labour it's been a highly unpredictable period politics where referendums have become the new normal!
Le Pen 26% Fillon 22% Macron 21% Mélenchon 17% Hamon 7%
The Tribune de Genève in Switzerland will also be publishing one, or already has.
It's apparently polling from 'one of the candidate's teams'. Who would benefit from a poll like this?
Presumably Macron.
Le Pen looks a bit too high, however given we know Fillon's base will likely turn out while Macron's is untested there is reason to believe the order is not implausible.
Admittedly I have not been following the French elections as much as many on hear. so correct me if I am worn would a Fillon Vs Le Pen run off put be an Anglo-Phile Vs a Euro-Phobe, so ether way we could get a better deal than expected a few months ago.
I was watching French telly and it appears some LR deputies, not just Fillon, seem quite pragmatic about the Brexit talks and dismissing the "tough" line from the EU/Merkel. It would likely mean there would be some internal EU squabbles over the negotiations though.
Fillon is pro EU if a shade more Eurosceptic than Macron and has said he wants to attract business from London back to Paris so do not expect any great favours from him, Le Pen is still the only candidate who really backed Brexit
Of course, I think the big difference re:Macron is the LR aren't as fussed about what is in it for the EU and do not want to see France's interests harmed because of EU intransigence.
I met Macron last year, and he sees the EU as an institution that helps further France's interests. Brexit, to him, is an opportunity for France to grab business from the UK. I think French politicians are - by and large - more nationalistic and opportunistic than we tend to think.
Could we see 500 Conservative seats? It sounds ridiculous. But with the SNP on 50%, and the opposition fragmented, they got all but three seats in Scotland.
The UK vote share could look awfully like Scottish one. Could it have a similar outcome?
Would be interesting if it ended like that because if there was a split in what's left of the Labour Party to the Lib-Dems we could actually see the Liberals as the main Opposition Party for the first time since maybe 1905?
Is the upshot of all the uphevals of the past few years going to be a reversion, essentially, to where we was in the 19th century - Tory/Liberal?
We've seen some seismic stuff this evening. Somehow this tops everything that has come before.
It's barely believable stuff. Just mind blowing.
If in direct marginals SCons secure a swing 3% higher than nationally (i.e. 6% of the electorate go from Lib/Lab to SCon) then the SCons would return 19 MPs. Which would be... amazing I think.
Im trying to compute what we are seeing at the moment.
We are 7 years into a Tory government and the polling is beginning to suggest that at the forthcoming election the governing Tory party will not just take the opposition to the cleaners but leave them a husk.
I wouldn't be surprised if a NI poll showed Theresa May gaining a seat their too. That's how unprecedented this all is.
Could we see 500 Conservative seats? It sounds ridiculous. But with the SNP on 50%, and the opposition fragmented, they got all but three seats in Scotland.
The UK vote share could look awfully like Scottish one. Could it have a similar outcome?
The polls in Scotland just before the last election showed a 21-point lead for SNP over Labour. The SNP went on to take all but one of Labour’s 41 Scottish seats.
This week Theresa May called a general election in the wake of polls showing her Conservative party 21 points ahead of Labour. Could Labour now be headed for a Britain wide meltdown of the kind that they suffered in Scotland two years ago?
Could we see 500 Conservative seats? It sounds ridiculous. But with the SNP on 50%, and the opposition fragmented, they got all but three seats in Scotland.
The UK vote share could look awfully like Scottish one. Could it have a similar outcome?
If you Baxter the 50% poll the Tories only get 425 seats.
What would you have gotten in Scotland last year Baxtering SNP 50%?
Could we see 500 Conservative seats? It sounds ridiculous. But with the SNP on 50%, and the opposition fragmented, they got all but three seats in Scotland.
The UK vote share could look awfully like Scottish one. Could it have a similar outcome?
If you Baxter the 50% poll the Tories only get 425 seats.
What would you have gotten in Scotland last year Baxtering SNP 50%?
I'm reminded of a line in Blairs memoir, on the 97 election, he says at one point he was worried that he would defeat the tories too strongly, leaving Britain in an unhealthy one party state.
Im trying to compute what we are seeing at the moment.
We are 7 years into a Tory government and the polling is beginning to suggest that at the forthcoming election the governing Tory party will not just take the opposition to the cleaners but leave them a husk.
We are 7 years into the Labour Party flirting with the loony left again. That is the driver behind all the rest
With the Panelbase poll, if the SCons take 2% from both Lab and the SNP between now and the GE they'll return 19 MPs, assuming UNS. But of course once tactical voting comes into play that number could be higher. Buy SCOns...
Someone pass the smelling salts.....
Surely you need a downer? I have my diazepam ready when I've had my fill.
Could we see 500 Conservative seats? It sounds ridiculous. But with the SNP on 50%, and the opposition fragmented, they got all but three seats in Scotland.
The UK vote share could look awfully like Scottish one. Could it have a similar outcome?
If you Baxter the 50% poll the Tories only get 425 seats.
What would you have gotten in Scotland last year Baxtering SNP 50%?
As someone posted earlier, if (*IF*) the Tories poll 50% then UNS is out of the window.
This can't go on, there must be secret meetings going on with Labour MPs discussing how to have new leadership for the duration of the election campaign to avoid extinction.
Comments
What if the SNP-Con gap isn't the 11% suggested by Panelbase? What if it's... smaller?
I'm in "too good to be true" territory again, aren't I? Anyway, hopefully from now on there will be regular Scottish polling. The biggest problem with believing these big jumps in Tory support is that there aren't enough surveys from Scotland to establish a trend.
Both Alistair Meeks and Black Rook have pointed out that there are limits to a Lib resurgence and that those limits are lower.
I'm sure in 4 or 5 years time polls might be showing the Tories behind in Hartlepool too here.
Interesting that there are no ultra ultra safe seats in Scotland as there are in England - if the SNP had hit 55% last time round Orkney and Shetland might have dropped. On 55%, the Conservatives will still be 15,000+ short in Knowsley.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/may-parks-her-battle-tanks-on-labours-lawn-nl5skvw0v
That said, the trend in polling news out of Scotland is the most encouraging, and the best reason to display a degree of cautious optimism about Scotland's continuing place in the UK, for many years.
I want those 'never kissed a Tory' shirts to come back in fashion. Could lead to some fun.
Me, I'm adjusting prediction from snp 54-55 to 50-51.
I think Labour are seriously going to get destroyed. And it's all self-inflicted. I believe that a genuinely, moderate centre-left party would get a hearing in this country. But hard-left style socialism? No, most people including myself genuinely do not want that. I have as much issue with Corbyn's leadership qualities as I do with his ideology. What's worse is that some of his supporters that I know in real life, compare him/see him the same as an old school Labour politician, like Tony Benn or even Harold Wilson (I'm not kidding). They don't see him as part of the same school of militant leftism which nearly killed Labour in the 1980s.
@AndyJS Well, my first election was in 2015 - I voted (not enthusiastically) for Ed Miliband. I actually like Ed a lot more since he lost in 2015, and find myself agreeing with him on quite a lot of issues these days.
Corbyn hasn't broken the mould he has trashed Labour.
Reminder: this man now has 45 days left to convince the English and Welsh that a Far Left minority Government, led by him and his terrorist-lauding mate McDonnell and propped up by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is desirable.
https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/who-do-french-sex-workers-want-as-their-new-president
(In brief: Macron and Le Pen.)
The sooner that Labour is destroyed, the sooner we can have some kind of Liberal party as the main opposition instead. Simple.
I do hope if the Tories are back in Scotland, they they have also learnt something from the years of failure, and they try and treat the country with more respect.
(I was never very convinced that Brexit was the moment for InyRef2. I always thought that waiting for the inevitable pain after Brexit was a better moment, strategically speaking. So I think Nicola may have taken a misstep).
* La Libre is a Belgian website. I have no knowledge of whether it is a reputable source or not.
They would hate a Le Pen or Melanchon one.
My - wild ass guess - would be that the CAC would rally 15% on a Fillon win, 8-10% on Macron, fall 15% with Melenchon and 20% with Le Pen.
Except what makes anybody think that the Conservatives will finish on a vote share as low as 40%? Cameron made 37% last time; Labour is in pieces and Corbyn surely can't capture even as much as the vastly superior Gordon Brown did when he only managed 29%; Ukip seems to have started sliding downhill and shipping most of the lost voters to Theresa May in the process; and that only leaves the Liberal Democrats, who up until now have been reviving at a glacial pace and primarily at the expense of Labour.
Moreover, in terms of the Parliamentary arithmetic, we haven't even started discussing the Tories' huge advantages on leadership and economic competence, or the possibility of a modest revival in Scotland and a major advance in Wales, or their ability to outperform their national vote swing in target marginal seats.
Regardless, even if Tory support softens a bit, I still don't see how they poll any worse than about 42-43%, save for some really epic black swan event.
We have 6 weeks so anything can happen like have these polls taken in the last couple of bad days of bad news reported on the con's in the media on the grand old duke of Duke of york strategy on tax.
I wonder if May would share a similar thought, would she be happy if a true wipeout occurred, and the next parliament resembled the Russian Duma?
Has been a long evening, probably about time for bed.
The UK vote share could look awfully like Scottish one. Could it have a similar outcome?
Used to be reserved for Maggie Thatcher
Is the upshot of all the uphevals of the past few years going to be a reversion, essentially, to where we was in the 19th century - Tory/Liberal?
We are 7 years into a Tory government and the polling is beginning to suggest that at the forthcoming election the governing Tory party will not just take the opposition to the cleaners but leave them a husk.
I wouldn't be surprised if a NI poll showed Theresa May gaining a seat their too. That's how unprecedented this all is.
I keep wondering where's the catch.
This week Theresa May called a general election in the wake of polls showing her Conservative party 21 points ahead of Labour. Could Labour now be headed for a Britain wide meltdown of the kind that they suffered in Scotland two years ago?
https://electionsetc.com/2017/04/22/another-labour-meltdown/comment-page-1/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/22/student-tory-groups-swell-backlash-left-wing-activists/
https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/854633665229451264
Con 37
Lab 29
LD 10
UKIP 7
Green 3
PC 13
So far as I can tell. So if the lead is more than 8 then the Tories are outperforming my custom
DUAL national swingometer in Wales.