Bloody hell, the BBC paper review is reporting the Mail story on the Tory poll lead being slashed as if it might have some truth to it.
Good! We don't want Corbyn being ousted now, do we?
I don't think Corbyn will be ousted for a few days yet, the MPs could/will wate till there nomination papers are submitted and they are defiantly on the ballot paper as the official Labour candidate, at which point some/a lot/most could/will declare that in under no cercomestas will they vote to make Courbyn PM and instead will vote for ......
@rafaelbehr: @nickfaith82 When your big brand problem is 'couldn't run a whelk stall' not sure headline policy of 'stall closing 4 extra days' is wise positioning.
The whole patriotic public holidays thing sounds like a Ukip policy. Perhaps Labour are making a belated attempt to convince their Ukip defectors that Jeremy Corbyn is really into patriotism?
More likely, of course, the Labour leadership haven't a clue what they're fucking doing, and are flailing about like stranded fish.
Given I'd expect a PM candidate to get a bit of a boost in their home constituency, surely come June there's a good chance Maidenhead is literally the safest Tory seat in the country?
Speaking of the SE, there are 84 seats, 78 of which are Tory held. How many others are vulnerable? No local knowledge and looking at wiki:
Hove looks very possible, taken by the Tories in 2010 but lost in 2015, small Lab majority. Oxford East looks very safe - LDs within 1000 votes in the past, but looks rock solid now. Slough was Tory 83-92, under 8000 majority, I guess in the present climate that's possible? Southampton Test seems similar - even smaller majority, has to be vulnerable on a bad night? Brighton Pavilion - the people's republic of Brighton. 3 way marginal in 2010, but with Labour so poor assumed Green hold odds on. Buckingham - Speaker, would be Tory otherwise, will they stand? I think they should.
Bloody hell, the BBC paper review is reporting the Mail story on the Tory poll lead being slashed as if it might have some truth to it.
Good! We don't want Corbyn being ousted now, do we?
I'm thinking of voting Labour in the locals.
In fairness, it might be your last chance.
Just checked we do have a Labour candidate who happens to have the same name as my late grandfather. That's good enough for me.
Fair enough. My daughter who is studying law sent me a link to a case in which the pursuer had exactly the same name as me from 1904 yesterday asking if it was connected to the family. I explained if any of our family was appearing in court in 1904 it was probably as the accused!
Bloody hell, the BBC paper review is reporting the Mail story on the Tory poll lead being slashed as if it might have some truth to it.
Good! We don't want Corbyn being ousted now, do we?
I don't think Corbyn will be ousted for a few days yet, the MPs could/will wate till there nomination papers are submitted and they are defiantly on the ballot paper as the official Labour candidate, at which point some/a lot/most could/will declare that in under no cercomestas will they vote to make Courbyn PM and instead will vote for ......
The thing is, if the PLP attempt to defenestrate their own leader in the middle of a General Election campaign - and even assuming that they succeed - would it make Labour's position better or worse. The image of total chaos and a hopelessly divided and warring party would be inescapable.
I don't know - perhaps, if there is some sort of plot, those behind it have calculated that things can't possibly get any worse.
Of all the really weird things tonight that Sunday Mail front page is surely the weirdest. What on earth were they thinking?
They're worried TMay might be so far ahead she can ignore them, and come to think she can actually raise some taxes without worrying about electoral impact for once, so time to remind her they are not her lapdogs and can still cause trouble.
It does seem that she is going, at one bound, to be free of all the slightly weird little pressure groups on the edges of the Tory party (and of reason for that matter). The problem is I am still not completely convinced she is completely free of these foibles herself.
Nor am I - since the polls give her anywhere from 45-200ish majorities, we shall likely soon find out, and hopefully to our benefit.
Of all the really weird things tonight that Sunday Mail front page is surely the weirdest. What on earth were they thinking?
They're worried TMay might be so far ahead she can ignore them, and come to think she can actually raise some taxes without worrying about electoral impact for once, so time to remind her they are not her lapdogs and can still cause trouble.
It does seem that she is going, at one bound, to be free of all the slightly weird little pressure groups on the edges of the Tory party (and of reason for that matter). The problem is I am still not completely convinced she is completely free of these foibles herself.
Earlier polling upthread showed 44% of people thought a landslide for the tories was a good thing. Even I as a non-Tory am wondering if I would prefer to have a large Tory majority than a small one, exactly because it means May can govern on her own terms rather than at the whim of various pressure groups.
I overheard a couple of colleagues the other day, not very politically aware from what I could hear of their conversation, but basically all agreeing that a big majority for may would get us a better Brexit deal. The message seems to be filtering through.
Peak Tory in Scotland already-blink and you will miss it.
Still an overwhelmingly victory for the SNP even on these figures and attempts by the Tories to quote their heavy defeat by the SNP as somehow justification for delaying a referendum will not convince the 70 per cent or so who have not voted Tory.
You are confusing "Tory" with "unionist". If a convincing majority vote for unionist parties, that is a very good argument for not holding a referendum. (Not for "delaying" it, but for not holding it.)
@rafaelbehr: @nickfaith82 When your big brand problem is 'couldn't run a whelk stall' not sure headline policy of 'stall closing 4 extra days' is wise positioning.
The whole patriotic public holidays thing sounds like a Ukip policy. Perhaps Labour are making a belated attempt to convince their Ukip defectors that Jeremy Corbyn is really into patriotism?
More likely, of course, the Labour leadership haven't a clue what they're fucking doing, and are flailing about like stranded fish.
Will be undercut by his neighbour and Foreign Affairs spokesperson saying she won't put the flag out for St George's Day.
Of all the really weird things tonight that Sunday Mail front page is surely the weirdest. What on earth were they thinking?
They're worried TMay might be so far ahead she can ignore them, and come to think she can actually raise some taxes without worrying about electoral impact for once, so time to remind her they are not her lapdogs and can still cause trouble.
It does seem that she is going, at one bound, to be free of all the slightly weird little pressure groups on the edges of the Tory party (and of reason for that matter). The problem is I am still not completely convinced she is completely free of these foibles herself.
Earlier polling upthread showed 44% of people thought a landslide for the tories was a good thing. Even I as a non-Tory am wondering if I would prefer to have a large Tory majority than a small one, exactly because it means May can govern on her own terms rather than at the whim of various pressure groups.
I overheard a couple of colleagues the other day, not very politically aware from what I could hear of their conversation, but basically all agreeing that a big majority for may would get us a better Brexit deal. The message seems to be filtering through.
If the Tories are going to win , I would prefer a very large majority. It ticks many boxes !
Why ? Is there any incorrect information in it ? You cannot complain because you do not like it.
The complaint might be that it is misleading - it is possible to mislead with technically correct information. Politicians do this all the time with specific emphasis or omission to give impressions of something without making anything up.
Whether that would hold up here or not I don't know, but it's obviously at best odd to compare polls from different sources directly like that.
So what does success look like for TM? My thoughts:
Loss of seats/loss of majority: Abject disaster. Resigns the next day before the party machine can take her down.
Majority less than 40: Seen as failure. Party think she should have done better vs Corbyn. Public think she has wasted their time. Getting Brexit and a tough domestic agenda through Parliament remains very difficult. Possible calls to stand down or stalking-horse candidates.
Majority of 40-60: She'll argue it's success and some may go along with it. But a lot of voices in the party will grumble that she should have done better. Parliamentary business becomes a bit easier, but could still be tricky in the most difficult votes. The Lords will be hard to control.
Majority of 60-150: Success. The party cheers for her and her standing is enhanced. The public acknowledges her as bold, decisive and, above all, successful. Parliamentary business becomes much easier and the Lords is cowed to the point it dare not obstruct the agenda. Best of all, Corbyn tries to hang on - probably successfully - as Labour leader.
Majority of 150+: Huge success... BUT... either Corbyn falls, or the bulk of the remaining Labour MPs form a new Parliamentary bloc. TM gets a huge mandate for five years, but faces a renewed and revitalised opposition, making this arguably worse than the 60-150 scenario.
Of all the really weird things tonight that Sunday Mail front page is surely the weirdest. What on earth were they thinking?
They're worried TMay might be so far ahead she can ignore them, and come to think she can actually raise some taxes without worrying about electoral impact for once, so time to remind her they are not her lapdogs and can still cause trouble.
It does seem that she is going, at one bound, to be free of all the slightly weird little pressure groups on the edges of the Tory party (and of reason for that matter). The problem is I am still not completely convinced she is completely free of these foibles herself.
Earlier polling upthread showed 44% of people thought a landslide for the tories was a good thing. Even I as a non-Tory am wondering if I would prefer to have a large Tory majority than a small one, exactly because it means May can govern on her own terms rather than at the whim of various pressure groups.
I overheard a couple of colleagues the other day, not very politically aware from what I could hear of their conversation, but basically all agreeing that a big majority for may would get us a better Brexit deal. The message seems to be filtering through.
If the Tories are going to win , I would prefer a very large majority. It ticks many boxes !
I look forward to hearing you have ticked the Conservative box on June 8....
Peak Tory in Scotland already-blink and you will miss it.
Still an overwhelmingly victory for the SNP even on these figures and attempts by the Tories to quote their heavy defeat by the SNP as somehow justification for delaying a referendum will not convince the 70 per cent or so who have not voted Tory.
You are confusing "Tory" with "unionist". If a convincing majority vote for unionist parties, that is a very good argument for not holding a referendum. (Not for "delaying" it, but for not holding it.)
The Unionists (Tory +Labour+ Lib Dem +UKIP) must be more than 55% and ideally more than 57%. I am getting more hopeful than I was.
Why ? Is there any incorrect information in it ? You cannot complain because you do not like it.
The complaint might be that it is misleading - it is possible to mislead with technically correct information. Politicians do this all the time with specific emphasis or omission to give impressions of something without making anything up.
Whether that would hold up here or not I don't know, but it's obviously at best odd to compare polls from different sources directly like that.
OK. We will wait for the verdict.............in six months !
Peak Tory in Scotland already-blink and you will miss it.
Still an overwhelmingly victory for the SNP even on these figures and attempts by the Tories to quote their heavy defeat by the SNP as somehow justification for delaying a referendum will not convince the 70 per cent or so who have not voted Tory.
Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.
The SNP losing 10-12 seats, most probably the leader of the SNP at Westminster losing his seat and the unionist parties combined on 55% would be a rebuff to the SNP whichever way you try and spin it and May would easily be able to ignore Sturgeon's indyref2 demands for the rest of the Parliament
Correct. If the combined Unionist vote comes to over 50% and the SNP ships any meaningful number of seats, then I think May will feel she's in a strong enough position to rebuff Sturgeon. After that, the SNP can scream and cry and fulminate as much as they like. They've already been whining at an increasingly high pitch ever since the Brexit vote, and thus far it has got them nowhere.
Under such circumstances, the line from No.10 would probably be that peak SNP has passed, the vote shares suggest a majority against independence (confirming the 2014 referendum result,) and therefore indyref2 is off the table - for now. I think that May would tell the SNP to wait until the next Holyrood election in 2021 - by which time we'll have left the EU, and Scots can assess properly how the new arrangements are taking shape - and then try to win another pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament, before conceding a new referendum.
Of all the really weird things tonight that Sunday Mail front page is surely the weirdest. What on earth were they thinking?
They're worried TMay might be so far ahead she can ignore them, and come to think she can actually raise some taxes without worrying about electoral impact for once, so time to remind her they are not her lapdogs and can still cause trouble.
It does seem that she is going, at one bound, to be free of all the slightly weird little pressure groups on the edges of the Tory party (and of reason for that matter). The problem is I am still not completely convinced she is completely free of these foibles herself.
Earlier polling upthread showed 44% of people thought a landslide for the tories was a good thing. Even I as a non-Tory am wondering if I would prefer to have a large Tory majority than a small one, exactly because it means May can govern on her own terms rather than at the whim of various pressure groups.
I overheard a couple of colleagues the other day, not very politically aware from what I could hear of their conversation, but basically all agreeing that a big majority for may would get us a better Brexit deal. The message seems to be filtering through.
If the Tories are going to win , I would prefer a very large majority. It ticks many boxes !
I look forward to hearing you have ticked the Conservative box on June 8....
Of all the really weird things tonight that Sunday Mail front page is surely the weirdest. What on earth were they thinking?
They're worried TMay might be so far ahead she can ignore them, and come to think she can actually raise some taxes without worrying about electoral impact for once, so time to remind her they are not her lapdogs and can still cause trouble.
It does seem that she is going, at one bound, to be free of all the slightly weird little pressure groups on the edges of the Tory party (and of reason for that matter). The problem is I am still not completely convinced she is completely free of these foibles herself.
Earlier polling upthread showed 44% of people thought a landslide for the tories was a good thing. Even I as a non-Tory am wondering if I would prefer to have a large Tory majority than a small one, exactly because it means May can govern on her own terms rather than at the whim of various pressure groups.
I overheard a couple of colleagues the other day, not very politically aware from what I could hear of their conversation, but basically all agreeing that a big majority for may would get us a better Brexit deal. The message seems to be filtering through.
If the Tories are going to win , I would prefer a very large majority. It ticks many boxes !
I look forward to hearing you have ticked the Conservative box on June 8....
If there is to be a majority on this scale, caused by literally there being 2 Con voters for every Lab voter (my brain will not accept that could be possible, and I might struggle even after it is the case), I look forward to all the people who will be astounded because they don't know anyone who votes Tory.
And the answer will be, statistically you do, mate, they just don't tell you. Then the horror when they realise someone they love probably voted Tory...
Why ? Is there any incorrect information in it ? You cannot complain because you do not like it.
The complaint might be that it is misleading - it is possible to mislead with technically correct information. Politicians do this all the time with specific emphasis or omission to give impressions of something without making anything up.
Whether that would hold up here or not I don't know, but it's obviously at best odd to compare polls from different sources directly like that.
OK. We will wait for the verdict.............in six months !
I'm not advising there be an official complaint to deal with. 'Newspaper headline is misleading', who cares, like you say.
Le Pen 26% Fillon 22% Macron 21% Mélenchon 17% Hamon 7%
The Tribune de Genève in Switzerland will also be publishing one, or already has.
It's apparently polling from 'one of the candidate's teams'. Who would benefit from a poll like this?
Presumably Macron.
Le Pen looks a bit too high, however given we know Fillon's base will likely turn out while Macron's is untested there is reason to believe the order is not implausible.
Admittedly I have not been following the French elections as much as many on hear. so correct me if I am worn would a Fillon Vs Le Pen run off put be an Anglo-Phile Vs a Euro-Phobe, so ether way we could get a better deal than expected a few months ago.
IRA supporting Corbyn was in Warrington today (where I live for my sins) and from the comments my son showed me on social media tonight he went down like a cup of cold sick as you could well imagine, and Warrington is generally a Labour supporting town
I know that PBers seem to be shocked by the polls, but I'm not. Corbyn has literally no coherent policy on the big issue of the day which will decide Britain's future for decades to come: Brexit. In a time when France could elect Le Pen, and we could see the EU project totally collapse, in time of heightening tensions between North Korea and the United States etc - why would anyone want Corbyn guiding this country through such a worrying period? For instance, looking at some of the difficulties facing my generation in this country - Corbyn has literally no answers to them.
In the last couple of days, I've seriously thought about switching to LDs permanently. They are not perfect by any means, and are bit too Europhile for my liking. But they've spoken about issues I care about, they have at least a clear stance on Brexit (which is more than Labour) and they are relatively sane lefties, and not hard left nuts which have infiltrated Labour. Obviously, we'll see how the election goes, and whether Corbyn gets voted out after Labour are clearly decimated on June 8th. But it does seem that Labour of the old isn't coming back, and maybe, just maybe they as a political party have expired and a new left-centre party (LDs?) needs to come and take it's place. I already know that I'm voting LD in May local elections, and in June, and I think I'll stick with the party for the foreseeable future.
Tories, remember this night - it will not get any better for you than the dreams you will have as a result. The rest of us quaver in fear at what a majority of such a scale would do.
IRA supporting Corbyn was in Warrington today (where I live for my sins) and from the comments my son showed me on social media tonight he went down like a cup of cold sick as you could well imagine, and Warrington is generally a Labour supporting town
And I am guessing a lot of people still aren't fully aware of Corbyn's history....
Peak Tory in Scotland already-blink and you will miss it.
Still an overwhelmingly victory for the SNP even on these figures and attempts by the Tories to quote their heavy defeat by the SNP as somehow justification for delaying a referendum will not convince the 70 per cent or so who have not voted Tory.
Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.
The SNP losing 10-12 seats, most probably the leader of the SNP at Westminster losing his seat and the unionist parties combined on 55% would be a rebuff to the SNP whichever way you try and spin it and May would easily be able to ignore Sturgeon's indyref2 demands for the rest of the Parliament
Correct. If the combined Unionist vote comes to over 50% and the SNP ships any meaningful number of seats, then I think May will feel she's in a strong enough position to rebuff Sturgeon. After that, the SNP can scream and cry and fulminate as much as they like. They've already been whining at an increasingly high pitch ever since the Brexit vote, and thus far it has got them nowhere.
Under such circumstances, the line from No.10 would probably be that peak SNP has passed, the vote shares suggest a majority against independence (confirming the 2014 referendum result,) and therefore indyref2 is off the table - for now. I think that May would tell the SNP to wait until the next Holyrood election in 2021 - by which time we'll have left the EU, and Scots can assess properly how the new arrangements are taking shape - and then try to win another pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament, before conceding a new referendum.
Certainly, though it is of course not impossible the general election after next could be in 2021 too now
That would truly be astonishing. But I would be disappointed if the SNP poll quite as high as that. (Ditto the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems probably both a bit low).
Tories, remember this night - it will not get any better for you than the dreams you will have as a result. The rest of us quaver in fear at what a majority of such a scale would do.
To bed.
In all seriousness, it is bad for the nation. It results in terrible policies.
Ideally given the situation, far better to have 50-60 Tory majority, Corbyn and all his like gone from Labour Party, best of whatever Brexit the Tories can deliver.
In all seriousness, as an emotional unionist, I truly hope the unionist parties do take this many seats off the SNP, who will remain dominant in the politics up there, and hopeful for the future, but seeing any sort of unionist revival after the near wipeout of 2015 will give me some comfort, even if there are plenty of people who say a Tory landslide makes them more inclined to vote Yes.
IRA supporting Corbyn was in Warrington today (where I live for my sins) and from the comments my son showed me on social media tonight he went down like a cup of cold sick as you could well imagine, and Warrington is generally a Labour supporting town
Just curious - what sins are only available in Warrington?
Why do people act so shocked about these polls? As if Labour haven't been dire in Scotland for months now.
Ruth Davidson comes across as moderate and sensible every time I've seen her (she's also anti-Trump, and that always gets plus points from me). Kezia Dugdale is a non-entity. Davidson is the anti-thesis of negative stereotypes about Tories. I'm not surprised she is doing well.
Why do people act so shocked about these polls? As if Labour haven't been dire in Scotland for months now.
Ruth Davidson comes across as moderate and sensible every time I've seen her (she's also anti-Trump, and that always gets plus points from me). Kezia Dugdale is a non-entity. Davidson is the anti-thesis of negative stereotypes about Tories. I'm not surprised she is doing well.
Dugdale is worse than Corbyn. And, that is saying something.
IRA supporting Corbyn was in Warrington today (where I live for my sins) and from the comments my son showed me on social media tonight he went down like a cup of cold sick as you could well imagine, and Warrington is generally a Labour supporting town
Just curious - what sins are only available in Warrington?
IRA supporting Corbyn was in Warrington today (where I live for my sins) and from the comments my son showed me on social media tonight he went down like a cup of cold sick as you could well imagine, and Warrington is generally a Labour supporting town
And I am guessing a lot of people still aren't fully aware of Corbyn's history....
IRA supporting Corbyn was in Warrington today (where I live for my sins) and from the comments my son showed me on social media tonight he went down like a cup of cold sick as you could well imagine, and Warrington is generally a Labour supporting town
Just curious - what sins are only available in Warrington?
In the last couple of days, I've seriously thought about switching to LDs permanently. They are not perfect by any means, and are bit too Europhile for my liking. But they've spoken about issues I care about, they have at least a clear stance on Brexit (which is more than Labour) and they are relatively sane lefties, and not hard left nuts which have infiltrated Labour. Obviously, we'll see how the election goes, and whether Corbyn gets voted out after Labour are clearly decimated on June 8th. But it does seem that Labour of the old isn't coming back, and maybe, just maybe they as a political party have expired and a new left-centre party (LDs?) needs to come and take it's place. I already know that I'm voting LD in May local elections, and in June, and I think I'll stick with the party for the foreseeable future.
Never switch to anyone 'permanently'. But I think labour need be worried when people looking for a left of centre option like you are actively turned off by what they are doing.
I try not to overreact to things because I am a consistently boring 30 year old fart, but the polls the last week have, despite the 7 long weeks to go and all my instincts, having me doubt my long held view that Lab will do better than feared and the Tories worse.
Sturgeon came to office promising to lead for all Scots and pledging real reform of public services, but as we hurtle towards yet another election that will be dominated by the constitution, the First Minister looks less a unifying figure than a tribalist, fighting a war of attrition with the majority of voters.
I know that PBers seem to be shocked by the polls, but I'm not. Corbyn has literally no coherent policy on the big issue of the day which will decide Britain's future for decades to come: Brexit. In a time when France could elect Le Pen, and we could see the EU project totally collapse, in time of heightening tensions between North Korea and the United States etc - why would anyone want Corbyn guiding this country through such a worrying period? For instance, looking at some of the difficulties facing my generation in this country - Corbyn has literally no answers to them.
In the last couple of days, I've seriously thought about switching to LDs permanently. They are not perfect by any means, and are bit too Europhile for my liking. But they've spoken about issues I care about, they have at least a clear stance on Brexit (which is more than Labour) and they are relatively sane lefties, and not hard left nuts which have infiltrated Labour. Obviously, we'll see how the election goes, and whether Corbyn gets voted out after Labour are clearly decimated on June 8th. But it does seem that Labour of the old isn't coming back, and maybe, just maybe they as a political party have expired and a new left-centre party (LDs?) needs to come and take it's place. I already know that I'm voting LD in May local elections, and in June, and I think I'll stick with the party for the foreseeable future.
Were you a Labour voter previously? Sorry for not remembering.
The way to finish Corbyn off is for labour to vote conservative and crush his movement.
Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him
Dan Hodges is voting Conservative.
But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
That would truly be astonishing. But I would be disappointed if the SNP poll quite as high as that. (Ditto the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems probably both a bit low).
Ahem - we have the Wales one to look forward to - anyone think it will look good for the Trots?
It's important to note that this prediction assume UNS, and therefore do not count unionist tactical voting, so there could be even more blue MPs in Scotland.
I'm calling it now, at the 2022 GE the Tories will
1) Take every Glasgow seat
2) Be the largest party in Scotland
If there is a second referendum and independence loses again point 2 may well happen. What would be the raison detre for the SNP if Scottish people reject independence twice in two generations less than ten years.
IRA supporting Corbyn was in Warrington today (where I live for my sins) and from the comments my son showed me on social media tonight he went down like a cup of cold sick as you could well imagine, and Warrington is generally a Labour supporting town
And I am guessing a lot of people still aren't fully aware of Corbyn's history....
I saw something either yesterday or today that did indeed suggest that.
even if there are plenty of people who say a Tory landslide makes them more inclined to vote Yes.
TBH I was surprised at how low that figure was - as presumably many people who were going to Vote Yes anyway said it would make them 'more likely' - I'm not a fan of hypotheticals in polls beyond the simple 'if there was a GE tomorrow'....
Comments
More likely, of course, the Labour leadership haven't a clue what they're fucking doing, and are flailing about like stranded fish.
Speaking of the SE, there are 84 seats, 78 of which are Tory held. How many others are vulnerable? No local knowledge and looking at wiki:
Hove looks very possible, taken by the Tories in 2010 but lost in 2015, small Lab majority.
Oxford East looks very safe - LDs within 1000 votes in the past, but looks rock solid now.
Slough was Tory 83-92, under 8000 majority, I guess in the present climate that's possible?
Southampton Test seems similar - even smaller majority, has to be vulnerable on a bad night?
Brighton Pavilion - the people's republic of Brighton. 3 way marginal in 2010, but with Labour so poor assumed Green hold odds on.
Buckingham - Speaker, would be Tory otherwise, will they stand? I think they should.
So possibly down to 2-3 non Tory seats in the SE
(No sign of the ICM on Twitter, must be tomorrow).
I don't know - perhaps, if there is some sort of plot, those behind it have calculated that things can't possibly get any worse.
That could well be a terrible mistake.
I overheard a couple of colleagues the other day, not very politically aware from what I could hear of their conversation, but basically all agreeing that a big majority for may would get us a better Brexit deal. The message seems to be filtering through.
https://twitter.com/newdawn1997/status/855826102601887744
Whether that would hold up here or not I don't know, but it's obviously at best odd to compare polls from different sources directly like that.
Loss of seats/loss of majority: Abject disaster. Resigns the next day before the party machine can take her down.
Majority less than 40: Seen as failure. Party think she should have done better vs Corbyn. Public think she has wasted their time. Getting Brexit and a tough domestic agenda through Parliament remains very difficult. Possible calls to stand down or stalking-horse candidates.
Majority of 40-60: She'll argue it's success and some may go along with it. But a lot of voices in the party will grumble that she should have done better. Parliamentary business becomes a bit easier, but could still be tricky in the most difficult votes. The Lords will be hard to control.
Majority of 60-150: Success. The party cheers for her and her standing is enhanced. The public acknowledges her as bold, decisive and, above all, successful. Parliamentary business becomes much easier and the Lords is cowed to the point it dare not obstruct the agenda. Best of all, Corbyn tries to hang on - probably successfully - as Labour leader.
Majority of 150+: Huge success... BUT... either Corbyn falls, or the bulk of the remaining Labour MPs form a new Parliamentary bloc. TM gets a huge mandate for five years, but faces a renewed and revitalised opposition, making this arguably worse than the 60-150 scenario.
Under such circumstances, the line from No.10 would probably be that peak SNP has passed, the vote shares suggest a majority against independence (confirming the 2014 referendum result,) and therefore indyref2 is off the table - for now. I think that May would tell the SNP to wait until the next Holyrood election in 2021 - by which time we'll have left the EU, and Scots can assess properly how the new arrangements are taking shape - and then try to win another pro-independence majority in the Scottish Parliament, before conceding a new referendum.
Change from 2015
SNP 44% (-6)
Con 33% (+18)
Lab 13% (-11)
Lib Dems 5% (-2)
Good God.
And the answer will be, statistically you do, mate, they just don't tell you. Then the horror when they realise someone they love probably voted Tory...
In the last couple of days, I've seriously thought about switching to LDs permanently. They are not perfect by any means, and are bit too Europhile for my liking. But they've spoken about issues I care about, they have at least a clear stance on Brexit (which is more than Labour) and they are relatively sane lefties, and not hard left nuts which have infiltrated Labour. Obviously, we'll see how the election goes, and whether Corbyn gets voted out after Labour are clearly decimated on June 8th. But it does seem that Labour of the old isn't coming back, and maybe, just maybe they as a political party have expired and a new left-centre party (LDs?) needs to come and take it's place. I already know that I'm voting LD in May local elections, and in June, and I think I'll stick with the party for the foreseeable future.
To bed.
https://twitter.com/RuthDavidsonMSP/status/855920304685809664
Ideally given the situation, far better to have 50-60 Tory majority, Corbyn and all his like gone from Labour Party, best of whatever Brexit the Tories can deliver.
Ruth Davidson comes across as moderate and sensible every time I've seen her (she's also anti-Trump, and that always gets plus points from me). Kezia Dugdale is a non-entity. Davidson is the anti-thesis of negative stereotypes about Tories. I'm not surprised she is doing well.
Those surviving mps form their own party and leader and ignore him
1) Take every Glasgow seat
2) Be the largest party in Scotland
I try not to overreact to things because I am a consistently boring 30 year old fart, but the polls the last week have, despite the 7 long weeks to go and all my instincts, having me doubt my long held view that Lab will do better than feared and the Tories worse.
Sturgeon came to office promising to lead for all Scots and pledging real reform of public services, but as we hurtle towards yet another election that will be dominated by the constitution, the First Minister looks less a unifying figure than a tribalist, fighting a war of attrition with the majority of voters.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/euan-mccolm-election-turns-sturgeon-into-image-of-salmond-1-4426703
But although I'd LOVE to see Corbyn go, I cannot vote Conservative. I've thought about it and my beliefs do not align with the Conservative party. I'm a liberal at heart.
https://twitter.com/John2Win/status/855855508909170689
two generationsless than ten years.