Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
I have been quietly and consistently buying Labour < 150 seats on Betfair around the 3.5 mark this week.
I seriously think this will be a wipeout.
Does anyone think Labour's polling will get better between now and election day?
I agree that it will be a wipeout and the way things look now, labour are effectively finished.
But on a constituency level Labour can certainly still win in the following circumstances: - Pro european MP in a strong remain area (eg peter Kyle, Ben Bradshaw etc) - Where they have a popular, longstanding, local MP with a significant personal vote. - Where there is a significant muslim block vote. - Most of London.
May can of course still trip up big time. Corbyn could be superseded. lots of things can happen.
I dont see any of these bets as good value given the uncertainty about this election.
I think 3.5 is value, but it's a hunch - I smell collapse in the air, brought on more by voter apathy among core Labour voters than a huge switch.
I've been building up a quiet position on Labour < 150 at circa 3.5, but the bulk of my betting is on Con seats over 370.5, where the 1.96 on Betfair earlier today seemed to me fantastic value.
The one point no one has mentioned [ as far as I can see ]; how is the Tory vote spread ? Piling up votes in Tory areas would not do much good.
Whilst they will pick up many seats, I don't think UNS is appropriate. Regarding Moray, I don't think Robertson will lose.
Will the Park Ranger reappear ? As a Tory, I mean.
I don't have the exact stats to hand but I believe someone posted on here yesterday that the swing from Lab to Con in Labour Leave seats is about 3x that of safe Con seats. Definitely DYOR as I can't find the relevant post, but it looks like Labour Leave seats will swing heavily to Conservative. Again, it's a hunch, but I think that 'Nice Mrs May' will do very well with Essex Man and small-c conservative C2DE voters in the north. That to me points to an extinction-level event for Labour.
I'm also an optimist for the Lib Dems and I think they will poll a bit higher than most on here suspect, at the higher end of 20 - 30 seats. There is a lot of remainer anger out there and I think the organised Lib Dem PR machine will really capitalise on it as Labour sink further and further into disarray. The next six weeks will not be kind on Labour, they are divided, demoralised, and have no effective campaign machine. Things will get a lot worse for them from here.
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
Bonkers, the dates are wrong. We would have fixed BHs in March, March, April, May, and May, in addition to the 2 floating Easter ones, and is there a more miserable date in the year than 30 November?
as I said earlier, this election will break the labour party it's difficult to see who cobbles together a credible left wing party alternative afterwards. the union funding will ensure that it is within the 'labour' brand
If party political funding still legislation allows union funding in the future...
I really want May to use this freedom she has to stop the generational inequality which is widening to an astonishing gap. The old have the triple-lock pensions, bus passes and housing while the young pay a higher rate of tax (5%+) for the same level of earnings, can't get on the housing ladder and hence struggle to build equity, so therefore can chuck away tens of thousands of pounds a year on rent, never to be seen again.
Yes. Mr Blair won a massive majority and could have done so many things that the Conservatives could never do.
Let's hope that Mrs May makes the most of whatever opportunities she's going to have.
There must come a time when we ask ourselves whether this is purely about Corbyn - when we say, OK, he is worse than Foot - but is he that much worse?
The flight from Ukip to May suggests that she is primarily seen as capable of, and willing to, deliver Brexit. Remainers fucked up big time by losing the referendum through complacence and laziness, and they have compounded their mistake ever since by trolling the Leavers with court cases and sneering and general superior silliness, and this is the electorate's answer. T May is indeed a Gordon Brown lookalike in one respect, that she is a big clunking fist.
I think that is where the greatest betrayal will be. May, quite cleverly, brought forward the election day, ably assisted by the stupidest man on earth, not just for the massive majority.
The majority means that Hard Brexiters will actually have less say. She could then negotiate the divorce bill. Nothing will move until that is settled.
She also effectively moves the next election to 2022 from 2020. So, if she pays £30bn, say as a divorce settlement, it would be old story.
Actually, under the circumstances, the only sensible move.
I don't think she brought the election forward to be more Hard Brexit. Plus other pledges can be junked, like, no tax increases, triple lock etc.
A sensible post ! If Brexit is in 2019, then the losers (and there will always be losers) will be complaining loudly in 2020, which would have been a GE.
Far better to Brexit, and then have another 3 years. Time enough for bungs to the losers, so they have shut up by the election.
I am absolutely sure that was one of the main motivations, not all this rubbish about thirty dirty Tories and their election expenses.
TM just needed a plausible excuse for the GE. Fools like Gina Miller & her ilk gave her one.
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
So the Corbyn bank holiday proposal is interesting but three extra bank holidays in March and April would give us 7 bank holidays in 3 months. I think that's utter overkill.
Was Survation carried out any later than others which would provide at least some support for Mail on Sunday headline?
Comparing polls from different pollsters is fraught with danger and really shouldn't be used to infer trends......or if done so accompanied by a massive caveat the Mail curiously appears to have failed to do.....
Betfair Sportsbook seem to have added a few more markets.
If you're really long on the Tories in Scotland, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock looks interesting at 14/1 (assuming the Tory lead continues to grow, and the SNP stalls) and the LDs and SCon odds look interesting in Argyll and Bute too.
There must come a time when we ask ourselves whether this is purely about Corbyn - when we say, OK, he is worse than Foot - but is he that much worse?
The flight from Ukip to May suggests that she is primarily seen as capable of, and willing to, deliver Brexit. Remainers fucked up big time by losing the referendum through complacence and laziness, and they have compounded their mistake ever since by trolling the Leavers with court cases and sneering and general superior silliness, and this is the electorate's answer. T May is indeed a Gordon Brown lookalike in one respect, that she is a big clunking fist.
I think that is where the greatest betrayal will be. May, quite cleverly, brought forward the election day, ably assisted by the stupidest man on earth, not just for the massive majority.
The majority means that Hard Brexiters will actually have less say. She could then negotiate the divorce bill. Nothing will move until that is settled.
She also effectively moves the next election to 2022 from 2020. So, if she pays £30bn, say as a divorce settlement, it would be old story.
Actually, under the circumstances, the only sensible move.
I don't think she brought the election forward to be more Hard Brexit. Plus other pledges can be junked, like, no tax increases, triple lock etc.
Actually I think you make a sensible argument and it certainly seems the way of travel
Can I voice my support for a bank holiday on Trafalgar Day (21 October)?
I have always favoured 22 October which we could celebrate jointly as National Apologize to The French and Spanish for Trafalgar and for Hanging on to Gibraltar Day, and as being about the date of the festival of Diwali. This would in no way constitute Kipper-trolling.
I think 3.5 is value, but it's just a hunch - I smell total collapse in the air, brought on more by voter apathy among core Labour voters than a huge switch.
Express headlines screaming "1 in 7 Labour voters will go Tory" for the next few weeks builds a perception of "permission" for others to join them without fear of being disloyal.
And in apathy and it could become an ELE tipping point quite quickly.
Is it conceivable that they come third in vote share - or below 20%?
Conceivable? A lot more than 48 hours ago.
I won't believe it until I'm losing money on the result.
Well, Mr Corbyn's supporters have been calling some of Labour's most staunch supporters "Tories" for quite a while now, so that also has been sending its own message.
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
Betfair Sportsbook seem to have added a few more markets.
If you're really long on the Tories in Scotland, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock looks interesting at 14/1 (assuming the Tory lead continues to grow, and the SNP stalls) and the LDs and SCon odds look interesting in Argyll and Bute too.
I've taken the 5/4 on the Lib Dems for Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross.
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
So that is 7 bank holidays from the 1 March to the end of May ?
what a stupid idea.
Certainly if we are to have more, from any party, they need spacing out. They're too packed together already.
I don't think even the Master Idiot is suggesting 4 bank holidays for everyone. On e in each country. Therefore, 4 bank holidays between March and May.
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
I'm just back from an evening out. Very good show.
Been catching up on these numbers. Extraordinary. And we've still not had the headline figures from that Panelbase in Scotland, either: rumoured to show the Tories up above 30%. To say nothing of the latest Welsh Barometer poll coming up on Monday, which looks like it might have the Conservatives overtaking Labour as the largest party.
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
So that is 7 bank holidays from the 1 March to the end of May ?
what a stupid idea.
Certainly if we are to have more, from any party, they need spacing out. They're too packed together already.
I don't think even the Master Idiot is suggesting 4 bank holidays for everyone. On e in each country. Therefore, 4 bank holidays between March and May.
Peak Tory in Scotland already-blink and you will miss it.
Still an overwhelmingly victory for the SNP even on these figures and attempts by the Tories to quote their heavy defeat by the SNP as somehow justification for delaying a referendum will not convince the 70 per cent or so who have not voted Tory.
Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.
Can I voice my support for a bank holiday on Trafalgar Day (21 October)?
I have always favoured 22 October which we could celebrate jointly as National Apologize to The French and Spanish for Trafalgar and for Hanging on to Gibraltar Day, and as being about the date of the festival of Diwali. This would in no way constitute Kipper-trolling.
I wanted the date of the Scottish Referendum results to be Union day in celebration, but as I'm still nervy about long term prospects that's probably not a good idea.
I think 3.5 is value, but it's just a hunch - I smell total collapse in the air, brought on more by voter apathy among core Labour voters than a huge switch.
Express headlines screaming "1 in 7 Labour voters will go Tory" for the next few weeks builds a perception of "permission" for others to join them without fear of being disloyal.
And in apathy and it could become an ELE tipping point quite quickly.
Is it conceivable that they come third in vote share - or below 20%?
Conceivable? A lot more than 48 hours ago.
I won't believe it until I'm losing money on the result.
Well, Mr Corbyn's supporters have been calling some of Labour's most staunch supporters "Tories" for quite a while now, so that also has been sending its own message.
As is apparent I always tend to the optimistic prediction when it comes to Labour, but I have been wondering for a long time what those Cobynistas would do if everyone they accused of being a Tory stopped and thought, well, if they think I am, maybe it wouldn't be so bad?
A sea change can occur, where support for a party edges up so high suddenly it becomes acceptable as an option to people who would never have considered them before, and they surge massively. It happened with the SNP. Can it happen with others? Yes. Will it? Probably not, but if it did we'd no longer be surprised.
Can I voice my support for a bank holiday on Trafalgar Day (21 October)?
I have always favoured 22 October which we could celebrate jointly as National Apologize to The French and Spanish for Trafalgar and for Hanging on to Gibraltar Day, and as being about the date of the festival of Diwali. This would in no way constitute Kipper-trolling.
10th September is already National Shove It Up Your Arse You Dago Bastards, We're British Day here in Gibraltar.
Or National Day as we call it because it's shorter.
I'm all for the most positive spin on things, and in a way I wish Labour a certain level of success because I don't want a huge Tory majority, but clearly they are not uniting, that's what people like Eoin have been complaining about for so long.
Peak Tory in Scotland already-blink and you will miss it.
Still an overwhelmingly victory for the SNP even on these figures and attempts by the Tories to quote their heavy defeat by the SNP as somehow justification for delaying a referendum will not convince the 70 per cent or so who have not voted Tory.
Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.
Surely something is either certain, or it isn't? Can something become more certain?
For what its worth I don't think delaying the referendum can be justified either, but if unionist parties get more than 50%, its a better argument than is currently there for delaying it.
Doesn't Scotland already get St Andrew's Day so will only get three extra days to England and Wales' four? He really given up north of the border hasn't he
Corbyn promises to create 4 new Bank Holidays on the patron saint day of each home nation, St George's Day, St Andrew's Day, St Patrick's Day and St David's Day, first sensible policy from Labour of the campaign
Surely even Corbyn isn't proposing four more National Bank Holidays?
ie Each would only be a Bank Holiday in the relevant nation - so everyone only gets one more day?
Who knows....
Labour’s election manifesto is being drawn up by an aide who once called for all banks to be nationalised and Britain to have a three-day week, it can be revealed.
He has previously suggested companies should be banned from sacking people and workers should be given powers to take over their businesses.
Mr Fisher has also backed abolishing the City of London and ending tax havens in the Channel Islands and the Cayman Islands.
Peak Tory in Scotland already-blink and you will miss it.
Still an overwhelmingly victory for the SNP even on these figures and attempts by the Tories to quote their heavy defeat by the SNP as somehow justification for delaying a referendum will not convince the 70 per cent or so who have not voted Tory.
Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.
Peak Tory in Scotland already-blink and you will miss it.
Still an overwhelmingly victory for the SNP even on these figures and attempts by the Tories to quote their heavy defeat by the SNP as somehow justification for delaying a referendum will not convince the 70 per cent or so who have not voted Tory.
Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.
The SNP losing 10-12 seats, most probably the leader of the SNP at Westminster losing his seat and the unionist parties combined on 55% would be a rebuff to the SNP whichever way you try and spin it and May would easily be able to ignore Sturgeon's indyref2 demands for the rest of the Parliament
as I said earlier, this election will break the labour party it's difficult to see who cobbles together a credible left wing party alternative afterwards. the union funding will ensure that it is within the 'labour' brand
If party political funding still legislation allows union funding in the future...
I'v mentioned this hear before without it getting the attention I think it dissevers, with the passage of the Trade Union Act 2016, which came in to affect last month. The money going to the Union Political funds is going to go down, probably very dramatically down. as the opt-out system is progressively replaced with an opt-in.
If you take the number of Union members who bothered to vote in the Lab leadership election as a guide for how many would chose to opt-in then union funding goes down form an average of £19 million a year to about 1 million. that's a big drop.
Was Survation carried out any later than others which would provide at least some support for Mail on Sunday headline?
Survation interviewed 2,072 UK adults aged 18+ between 21st - 22nd April 2017. Survation is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.
ComRes - Methodology Note: ComRes interviewed 2,074 GB adults online between 19th and 20th April 2017. Data were weighted to be demographically representative of all adults and by past vote recall. Voting intention figures are calculated using the ComRes Voter Turnout Model. ComRes is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Full data at www.comresglobal.com
YouGov - Thurs/Fri
Opinium - 19th-20th April
Do you have a link to the yougov poll?
Is Survation an "old fashioned" poll ? I mean not online. Could this be why it is different ?
Survation was online.
Survation is online . The differences are in fact quite amazing as it seems the panels are pretty much the same . TSE seems to be a member and took part in all of them !!!! Perhaps he gave different answers to each one .
Peak Tory in Scotland already-blink and you will miss it.
Still an overwhelmingly victory for the SNP even on these figures and attempts by the Tories to quote their heavy defeat by the SNP as somehow justification for delaying a referendum will not convince the 70 per cent or so who have not voted Tory.
Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.
I just knew it was Good For Yes!!
It's always Good for Yes! or A Victory for Eck Nicola
Le Pen 26% Fillon 22% Macron 21% Mélenchon 17% Hamon 7%
The Tribune de Genève in Switzerland will also be publishing one, or already has.
It's apparently polling from 'one of the candidate's teams'. Who would benefit from a poll like this?
Presumably Macron.
Le Pen looks a bit too high, however given we know Fillon's base will likely turn out while Macron's is untested there is reason to believe the order is not implausible.
Le Pen 26% Fillon 22% Macron 21% Mélenchon 17% Hamon 7%
If true that would be a political earthquake, a Le Pen v Fillon runoff and possibly even President Le Pen but of course still a big if
. According to the talk page of the French Wikipedia article about the polling, polls that have been or will be published after the ban started include
Belgium Le Soir : link L'Echo : link La RTBF : link La Libre Belgique : link Switzerland Le Temps : link 20 Minutes : link la Radio télévision suisse : link Canada La Société Radio-Canada : link
Of all the really weird things tonight that Sunday Mail front page is surely the weirdest. What on earth were they thinking?
They're worried TMay might be so far ahead she can ignore them, and come to think she can actually raise some taxes without worrying about electoral impact for once, so time to remind her they are not her lapdogs and can still cause trouble.
@rafaelbehr: @nickfaith82 When your big brand problem is 'couldn't run a whelk stall' not sure headline policy of 'stall closing 4 extra days' is wise positioning.
Le Pen 26% Fillon 22% Macron 21% Mélenchon 17% Hamon 7%
The Tribune de Genève in Switzerland will also be publishing one, or already has.
It's apparently polling from 'one of the candidate's teams'. Who would benefit from a poll like this?
Hard to say. Maybe Macron trying to get people away from Melenchon.
The thing that's always worried me about this election is how reliable the pollsters are. I mean, I have a pretty good idea of UK pollsters and their house effects and whether they're likely to under or over-rate a party by a couple of points. France remains a mystery.
Let's assume for a moment there is a "shy Le Pen" vote and it amounts to as much as 4% - that wouldn't be so far out considering the "shy Tory" and "shy Trump" effect we've seen the last couple of years. Private polling, stripped from the need for herding, may well be better at picking this up and 26% for Le Pen with a Le Pen / Fillon run off may not be inaccurate.
I am still greenest on Macron but I have topped up on Fillon just in case.
Not sure it is incorrect, the polls the data are from are clearly indicated.
The implication that there is movement is unsupportable - if they were two sets of data points, that would be fine - but the inference a voter would draw - and the headline states is hat the Tory lead has halved - and there simply isn't any data to support that. What there is suggests the reverse is true.....
Of all the really weird things tonight that Sunday Mail front page is surely the weirdest. What on earth were they thinking?
They're worried TMay might be so far ahead she can ignore them, and come to think she can actually raise some taxes without worrying about electoral impact for once, so time to remind her they are not her lapdogs and can still cause trouble.
It does seem that she is going, at one bound, to be free of all the slightly weird little pressure groups on the edges of the Tory party (and of reason for that matter). The problem is I am still not completely convinced she is completely free of these foibles herself.
@rafaelbehr: @nickfaith82 When your big brand problem is 'couldn't run a whelk stall' not sure headline policy of 'stall closing 4 extra days' is wise positioning.
Comments
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/MOS-GE-Tables-I-2c0d7h2-2004SWCH.pdf
And it was an online poll
Let's hope that Mrs May makes the most of whatever opportunities she's going to have.
Plus the 18th of June as well.
Far better to Brexit, and then have another 3 years. Time enough for bungs to the losers, so they have shut up by the election.
I am absolutely sure that was one of the main motivations, not all this rubbish about thirty dirty Tories and their election expenses.
TM just needed a plausible excuse for the GE. Fools like Gina Miller & her ilk gave her one.
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855905506321469440
Look at the Labour offering in total and we all pay
Been catching up on these numbers. Extraordinary. And we've still not had the headline figures from that Panelbase in Scotland, either: rumoured to show the Tories up above 30%. To say nothing of the latest Welsh Barometer poll coming up on Monday, which looks like it might have the Conservatives overtaking Labour as the largest party.
Strange times indeed.
to stab him or push him off a cliff
Le Pen 26%
Fillon 22%
Macron 21%
Mélenchon 17%
Hamon 7%
The Tribune de Genève in Switzerland will also be publishing one, or already has.
And look at these two hypothetical R2 polls by Odoxa:
20 Apr (before Paris attack): Fillon 59%, Le Pen 41%;
21 Apr (after Paris attack): Fillon 54%, Le Pen 46%.
June - nice weather, and not in May where there are already two holidays.
Australia has a public holiday on the second Monday in June for the monarch's official birthday.
Still an overwhelmingly victory for the SNP even on these figures and
attempts by the Tories to quote their heavy defeat by the SNP as somehow justification for delaying
a referendum will not convince the 70 per cent or so who have not voted Tory.
Delay by the Tories against the wishes of Holyrood and in the face of demographic
changes just makes the end of the Union even more certain.
A sea change can occur, where support for a party edges up so high suddenly it becomes acceptable as an option to people who would never have considered them before, and they surge massively. It happened with the SNP. Can it happen with others? Yes. Will it? Probably not, but if it did we'd no longer be surprised.
Or National Day as we call it because it's shorter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gibraltar_National_Day
A couple of pictures of the annual party
https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5715/21111418279_e88aa7b72b_c.jpg
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-oUwNBGJMFIw/Uj9cL7ZN6vI/AAAAAAAABvA/UWABuoJ-D4I/s1600/casemates+view+on+national+day.jpg
I'm all for the most positive spin on things, and in a way I wish Labour a certain level of success because I don't want a huge Tory majority, but clearly they are not uniting, that's what people like Eoin have been complaining about for so long.
He must be a spoof. Surely something is either certain, or it isn't? Can something become more certain?
For what its worth I don't think delaying the referendum can be justified either, but if unionist parties get more than 50%, its a better argument than is currently there for delaying it.
ie Each would only be a Bank Holiday in the relevant nation - so everyone only gets one more day?
Labour’s election manifesto is being drawn up by an aide who once called for all banks to be nationalised and Britain to have a three-day week, it can be revealed.
He has previously suggested companies should be banned from sacking people and workers should be given powers to take over their businesses.
Mr Fisher has also backed abolishing the City of London and ending tax havens in the Channel Islands and the Cayman Islands.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/22/man-behind-jeremy-corbyns-election-manifesto-bring-three-day/
Labour must be getting seriously close to genuine panic. At least they would be if they were even vaguely rational.
https://twitter.com/binbones28/status/855896107238526976
If you take the number of Union members who bothered to vote in the Lab leadership election as a guide for how many would chose to opt-in then union funding goes down form an average of £19 million a year to about 1 million. that's a big drop.
One UK wide, and a second Scotland specific one
Of course he gets his own songs too.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zk_VszbZa_s
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/855903335936819200
Le Pen looks a bit too high, however given we know Fillon's base will likely turn out while Macron's is untested there is reason to believe the order is not implausible.
According to the talk page of the French Wikipedia article about the polling, polls that have been or will be published after the ban started include
Belgium
Le Soir : link
L'Echo : link
La RTBF : link
La Libre Belgique : link
Switzerland
Le Temps : link
20 Minutes : link
la Radio télévision suisse : link
Canada
La Société Radio-Canada : link
Let's assume for a moment there is a "shy Le Pen" vote and it amounts to as much as 4% - that wouldn't be so far out considering the "shy Tory" and "shy Trump" effect we've seen the last couple of years. Private polling, stripped from the need for herding, may well be better at picking this up and 26% for Le Pen with a Le Pen / Fillon run off may not be inaccurate.
I am still greenest on Macron but I have topped up on Fillon just in case.
https://twitter.com/moboboandyking/status/855721784641019904
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/855877452459122688
FIllon 22%
Macron 21%
Melenchon 17%
Hamon 7%
http://www.lalibre.be/actu/france/exclusif-presidentielle-francaise-decouvrez-le-dernier-sondage-a-quelques-heures-du-scrutin-58f9dacccd70e80512fbd23c