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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour reduce the Tory lead to 23% with YouGov in the most inc

SystemSystem Posts: 11,722
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour reduce the Tory lead to 23% with YouGov in the most incredible polling night I can remember

New ComRes poll for Sunday Mirror: HIGHEST TORY VOTE SHARE SINCE JAN 1991 Con 50(+4) Lab 25(-) LD 11(-) UKIP 7(-2)

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    First! :D
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    Please can we have 12 smiling Ruths? Pretty please
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/855890239075889152
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,220
    edited April 2017
    Third Fourth like Labour in Scotland.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,943
    Cameron and Osborne can only look on and think "Why couldn't we have got those numbers"
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    RobD said:

    First! :D

    Like Scon: :-D
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited April 2017
    RobD said:

    First! :D

    I would like Corbyn's Labour to finish third. Fourth may not be possible.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/855890239075889152

    Plummeted to an eleven points lead... :D
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,943
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/855890239075889152

    Survation? ;)
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    felix said:

    RobD said:

    First! :D

    Like Scon: :-D
    Didn't want to tempt fate....
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    RobD said:

    First! :D

    No fair - I was first it seemed - sums up a spurs fans day....
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    No herding yet...

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/855890239075889152
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,994
    I have been quietly and consistently buying Labour < 150 seats on Betfair around the 3.5 mark this week.

    I seriously think this will be a wipeout.

    Does anyone think Labour's polling will get better between now and election day?
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So with my quick Scotland analysis I forgot to factor in UKIP voters. That puts Aberdeen South as an immediate taken seat, so I've got 7 Tory seats
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,646
    Scottish #GE2017 Survation poll for @Sunday_Post
    SNP 43.1% (50% in 2015)
    Tories 27.9% (14.9%)
    Labour 17.8% (24.3%)
    Lib Dems 8.8% (7.5%)
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    RobD said:

    First! :D

    No fair - I was first it seemed - sums up a spurs fans day....
    TSE.. your cheque is in the post.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,943
    edited April 2017
    Looks like MoS UK-Wide Survation is Con 40% and Lab 29% (can't see scores for the rest)
  • Options
    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited April 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/855890239075889152

    Survation? ;)
    Yup.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/855890726554652672

    I have no idea where the "lead cut in half" comes from. Early contender for most misleading headline of the election campaign.
  • Options
    spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,312
    according to skynews sunday post scotland poll has con 27 snp 43
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    edited April 2017
    I really hate Corbyn right now - I truly do not like to treat the idea of anybody winning with mockery and contempt, not least because I'll feel like a right wally if they then do ok (even if they do still lose), but with polls like these I look like more of a prat if I don't assume a Tory landslide.

    But
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Meanwhile, Survation has:

    Con 40
    Lab 29
    Lib Dem 11
    UKIP 11

    Which is a rather different story.

    Phew, some normality at last.
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    ThreeQuidder said:

    No herding yet...

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/855890239075889152

    A very useful anti - kudos poll.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    kyf_100 said:

    I have been quietly and consistently buying Labour < 150 seats on Betfair around the 3.5 mark this week.

    I seriously think this will be a wipeout.

    Does anyone think Labour's polling will get better between now and election day?

    It has gone through several "resistance" levels.
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    fpt;
    Alistair said:

    The next most vulnerable by absolute value would be

    Aberdeen South
    East Lothian
    Edinburgh North and Leith
    Edinburgh South West
    Stirling
    Ochil and South Perthshire
    West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine

    The most amusing/outrageous tory gain would be in the western isles.

    Ignore the swing - it's really not impossible, although I expect the personal vote for Angus will keep him safe.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Na_h-Eileanan_an_Iar_(UK_Parliament_constituency)
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    ThreeQuidder said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/855890239075889152

    Survation? ;)
    Yup.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/855890726554652672
    So the lead went up! ;)
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    Lucian_FletcherLucian_Fletcher Posts: 793
    There's some desperate wishful thinking going on in Canary Wharf.
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-still-game-despite-10277409

    Prezza's column suggests Corbyn could re Rocky of politics. Which I thought he'd already claimed.

  • Options
    PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    ThreeQuidder said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/855890239075889152

    Survation? ;)
    Yup.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/855890726554652672
    There is no way this is correct. I voted UKIP in 2015 and there is no way they are polling anywhere close to that level.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne can only look on and think "Why couldn't we have got those numbers"

    They weren't facing Corbyn or a denuded UKIP.
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited April 2017
    ThreeQuidder said:

    No herding yet...

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/855890239075889152

    Mail just making sure their readers get out and vote !!!! Can't risk Team Trot.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    GIN1138 said:

    Cameron and Osborne can only look on and think "Why couldn't we have got those numbers"

    Because they are hummus-eating, Europhile, Notting Hill gobshites.

    And I liked them....
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,254
    SquareRoot said:

    bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.

    Terrible for expectations management. Now if they win 6 it will look like a defeat.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    RobD said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/855890239075889152

    Survation? ;)
    Yup.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/855890726554652672
    So the lead went up! ;)
    11% kippers looks optimistic, particularly if they don't field many candidates.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    edited April 2017
    Lucian_Fletcher said:

    Mirror ComRes has Tories hitting 50. This won't be a general election. It's going to be the murder of the Labour Party.

    Never before in the history of the Labour Party had such a mass of voters moved and suffered together. This was no disciplined march, it was a stampede, without order and without a goal, millions of people, ideologically unprepared, driving headlong away from the party. It was the beginning of the rout of civilization, of the massacre of the left wing.

    Richard Burton, War of the Worlds (2017 GE, amended version)

    Actually, I'm among the more optimistic about their chances.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    williamglenn said:

    SquareRoot said:

    bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.

    Terrible for expectations management. Now if they win 6 it will look like a defeat.
    Only a sextupling of the number of MPs. A total defeat!
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    SquareRoot said:

    bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.

    If only....
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So final bit of quick modelling of approx Scottish poll numbers

    Con 32%
    Lab 15%
    SNP 43%

    Gives 11 Con Seats in order of majority

    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
    Edinburgh South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    East Renfrewshire
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Aberdeen South
    East Lothian
    Edinburgh South West
    Edinburgh North and Leith
    Ochil and South Perthshire
    Stirling
  • Options
    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    drip, drip, drip

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/22/exclusive-britain-risk-terror-attack-jeremy-corbyn-becomes-prime/
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    FPT, It was only ten years ago that Sion Simon wrote “We cannot be killed”.

    Altogether now, let us say our prayers:

    “We cannot be killed.

    Shortly there will be an election, in which Labour will increase its majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. "
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Scottish #GE2017 Survation poll for @Sunday_Post
    SNP 43.1% (50% in 2015)
    Tories 27.9% (14.9%)
    Labour 17.8% (24.3%)
    Lib Dems 8.8% (7.5%)

    If the Tories keep this momentum up they can come first in Scotland.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    spudgfsh said:

    according to skynews sunday post scotland poll has con 27 snp 43

    Lib Lab and Green on 30% between em
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,254
    UKIP manifesto: Ban the burka and outlaw Sharia law.
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    williamglenn said:

    SquareRoot said:

    bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.

    Terrible for expectations management. Now if they win 6 it will look like a defeat.
    NO ,because Mrs May wont be so stupid to hang her hat on 12 seats.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    To William Hill!
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    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Sky said SCons in line for 8 Scottish seats.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,254
    https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/855892217336147970
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    spudgfsh said:

    according to skynews sunday post scotland poll has con 27 snp 43

    Hmm, that's the less than the doubling that people were trailing earlier.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,508
    Can't find the 20/1 from Wm Hill for Tories in Scotland over 9.5. Has it gone or can someone give me a link.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,911
    Tory lead slashed in half from 9 to errr 11
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,453
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    No herding yet...

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/855890239075889152

    Mail just making sure their readers get out and vote !!!! Can't risk Team Trot.
    Mail on Sunday is anti May. Their reporting of halving of the lead is fake news. The poll shows plus 2% on its previous
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    spudgfsh said:

    according to skynews sunday post scotland poll has con 27 snp 43

    At Con 27 my model gives Tory seats as
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
    Edinburgh South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    East Renfrewshire
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Aberdeen South
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    bigjohnowls said:

    Tory lead slashed in half from 9 to errr 11

    Well, it is from the Mail!
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    williamglenn said:

    SquareRoot said:

    bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.

    Terrible for expectations management. Now if they win 6 it will look like a defeat.
    Nah. I can see that if they end up with a majority of less than 100 after all this excitement ramping up hopes, but in Scotland they've been down to 0 before, they've only had 1 for ages - even if they fall short of this remarkable prediction, to get six would send them into paroxysms of delight.
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    The SNP are down nine on the last Survation in September 2015.
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    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,646
    Alistair said:

    So final bit of quick modelling of approx Scottish poll numbers

    Con 32%
    Lab 15%
    SNP 43%

    Gives 11 Con Seats in order of majority

    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
    Edinburgh South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    East Renfrewshire
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Aberdeen South
    East Lothian
    Edinburgh South West
    Edinburgh North and Leith
    Ochil and South Perthshire
    Stirling

    I really wouldn't throw your money away on ENL. Tories have generally polled between 7k and 9k there, and the demographics don't stack up for it as a Unionist stronghold...
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Errr, Betfair Sports book have
    Aberdeen South
    Liberal Democrat @ 1.005 - Do they know something we do not?
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    edited April 2017
    "Let’s be clear: this is a mad one.

    It’s in the nature of collective hysteria that no single act can be adduced to prove its existence. But there is a fin de siecle, self-destructive, decadent craziness about Conference 2017. Somewhere in the wads of twenty somethings and thirtywouldbes jamming the chintzy Bournemouth bars long after they’re normally silent lurks the jitterbugging desperation of the Twenties before the Crash, Berlin between the wars, London as Imperial Glory died with its queen. The collective psyche of this group of individuals who’ve never had it so good has rarely been so uncertain.

    Perhaps the magnitude of the moment we face is too great for us collectively to bear. Shortly there will be an election, in which the Conservatives will increase their majority, and in so doing utterly shatter the glass paradigm of cyclical politics which has contained us for the century since 1906. This ought to herald another decade of strong, confident, consensual Tory government. Which will finally and irrevocably transform the nature of politics and civic life in Britain."
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/855892217336147970

    Wait a second, another Scottish poll to come? I predict SCon within 10% of the SNP.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    SquareRoot said:

    bloody hell.. those figs are almost unprecedented. 12 Mps in Scotland.. should shut Ms Sturgeon up.

    Terrible for expectations management. Now if they win 6 it will look like a defeat.
    Nah. I can see that if they end up with a majority of less than 100 after all this excitement ramping up hopes, but in Scotland they've been down to 0 before, they've only had 1 for ages - even if they fall short of this remarkable prediction, to get six would send them into paroxysms of delight.
    It'd mean May will have a choice as to who is Scottish Secretary... :smiley:
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,508
    Alistair said:

    So final bit of quick modelling of approx Scottish poll numbers

    Con 32%
    Lab 15%
    SNP 43%

    Gives 11 Con Seats in order of majority

    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
    Edinburgh South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    East Renfrewshire
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Aberdeen South
    East Lothian
    Edinburgh South West
    Edinburgh North and Leith
    Ochil and South Perthshire
    Stirling

    Aberdeen west and Kincardine? Much easier than most of these.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Chameleon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    according to skynews sunday post scotland poll has con 27 snp 43

    Hmm, that's the less than the doubling that people were trailing earlier.
    Different poll, I think.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,691
    It should be noted Survation consistely overstated UKIP, so if you knock 6 from their UKIP score and give to the blue meanies, it gives the Tories a 17% lead
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,808
    Tories don't want to peak too soon.

    May won't want a low turnout on election day, if voters think it looks like it's in the bag already.

    It will sour the milk.
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    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Alistair said:

    So with my quick Scotland analysis I forgot to factor in UKIP voters. That puts Aberdeen South as an immediate taken seat, so I've got 7 Tory seats

    Green vote?
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    The Mail is definitely reflecting middle England concern over the 'triple lock'. They'll still vote Tory in massive numbers though.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    Chameleon said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/shippersunbound/status/855892217336147970

    Wait a second, another Scottish poll to come? I predict SCon within 10% of the SNP.
    I believe the Times poll is the one Curtice used for the 12 seat projection? So there are indeed two.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    alex. said:

    Chameleon said:

    spudgfsh said:

    according to skynews sunday post scotland poll has con 27 snp 43

    Hmm, that's the less than the doubling that people were trailing earlier.
    Different poll, I think.
    Ah yeah, I see that now. Next one should be interesting.
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    Alistair said:

    Errr, Betfair Sports book have
    Aberdeen South
    Liberal Democrat @ 1.005 - Do they know something we do not?

    One had UKIP at the same!!
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,220
    DavidL said:

    Can't find the 20/1 from Wm Hill for Tories in Scotland over 9.5. Has it gone or can someone give me a link.

    http://tinyurl.com/k8zqbpj
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,010
    email from Tim Farron

    "I want to make this clear.

    The Liberal Democrats will not enter into any coalition deal with either Theresa May’s Conservatives or Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party."
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Alistair said:

    Errr, Betfair Sports book have
    Aberdeen South
    Liberal Democrat @ 1.005 - Do they know something we do not?

    They know less than they think they know.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,691
    edited April 2017
    DavidL said:

    Can't find the 20/1 from Wm Hill for Tories in Scotland over 9.5. Has it gone or can someone give me a link.

    http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/9388610/Total+Conservative+Party+Seats+In+Scotland+Over+Under.html

    Edit now down to 14/1 - But still fill your fecking boots
  • Options
    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    frpenkridge said:

    Sky said SCons in line for 8 Scottish seats.

    Now we can see why they abstained this week.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,220
    Barnesian said:

    email from Tim Farron

    "I want to make this clear.

    The Liberal Democrats will not enter into any coalition deal with either Theresa May’s Conservatives or Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party."

    Blimey, he's actually right about something. :D
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    It's honestly hard to tell the difference between that CorbynSuperFan parody twitter account and Eoin Clarke. Frightening that one is serious.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Alistair said:

    So final bit of quick modelling of approx Scottish poll numbers

    Con 32%
    Lab 15%
    SNP 43%

    Gives 11 Con Seats in order of majority

    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
    Edinburgh South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    East Renfrewshire
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Aberdeen South
    East Lothian
    Edinburgh South West
    Edinburgh North and Leith
    Ochil and South Perthshire
    Stirling

    I really wouldn't throw your money away on ENL. Tories have generally polled between 7k and 9k there, and the demographics don't stack up for it as a Unionist stronghold...
    Oh heck yes, ENL seems like no chance in hell in reality but it's what my model has spat out.

    It's a pure uniform swing model taking votes from Lab and UKIP and distributing them to Tory and then siphoning off some votes from SNP ad giving back to Labour.

    I'm interested to see the 12 seats Curtice has selected.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It should be noted Survation consistely overstated UKIP, so if you knock 6 from their UKIP score and give to the blue meanies, it gives the Tories a 17% lead

    Indeed.

    Their final published poll before the last election had the Tories and Labour level on 31 apiece (though after the event they claimed to have an unpublished 37-31 poll).
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Does anyone know what else we're expecting tonight? (And when?)
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    PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    edited April 2017
    We've been spoiled tonight with so many opinion polls. I don't know if I can take more of this.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    Barnesian said:

    email from Tim Farron

    "I want to make this clear.

    The Liberal Democrats will not enter into any coalition deal with either Theresa May’s Conservatives or Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party."

    While I'd like the LDs to be open to working with either side, since it's likely not going to be an option either way, no harm ruling both out at the same time I guess.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    edited April 2017
    Pauly said:

    We've been spoiled tonight with so many opinion polls. I don't know if I can take more of this.

    Only seven weeks to go until the fateful bong... :smiley:
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    So final bit of quick modelling of approx Scottish poll numbers

    Con 32%
    Lab 15%
    SNP 43%

    Gives 11 Con Seats in order of majority

    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
    Edinburgh South
    Dumfries and Galloway
    East Renfrewshire
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Aberdeen South
    East Lothian
    Edinburgh South West
    Edinburgh North and Leith
    Ochil and South Perthshire
    Stirling

    Aberdeen west and Kincardine? Much easier than most of these.
    Would be left with 3.5% majority. My model assumes zero LD-to-Con Switching which is why AWK isn't there.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,853
    Andrew Picken‏ @andrewpicken1
    Replying to @andrewpicken1 and @Sunday_Post
    Prospect of another majority Tory Government bolsters indy cause as 37.9% of Scots say they are more likely to vote Yes if this is the case.

    Is that all? 37.9%?

    Presumably that will include a large chunk of those who we're going to vote Yes anyway....
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    tlg86 said:

    Barnesian said:

    email from Tim Farron

    "I want to make this clear.

    The Liberal Democrats will not enter into any coalition deal with either Theresa May’s Conservatives or Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party."

    Blimey, he's actually right about something. :D
    Interesting distinction. If Corbyn goes...!
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,691
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/855892437453164545
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Run out of popcorn yet?
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,911
    Barnesian said:

    email from Tim Farron

    "I want to make this clear.

    The Liberal Democrats will not enter into any coalition deal with either Theresa May’s Conservatives or Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party."

    But I still havent found an answer to whether being gay is sinful
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    Casino_Royale said:

    Tories don't want to peak too soon.

    May won't want a low turnout on election day, if voters think it looks like it's in the bag already.

    It will sour the milk.

    I think low turnout is a given, since the outcome is (unless everyone is very wrong) not in doubt whether its a 10 point lead or a 25 point lead. And given the highs today, either your advice is too late, or. No, it's too late.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,254
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Barnesian said:

    email from Tim Farron

    "I want to make this clear.

    The Liberal Democrats will not enter into any coalition deal with either Theresa May’s Conservatives or Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party."

    Blimey, he's actually right about something. :D
    Interesting distinction. If Corbyn goes...!
    "Farron refuses to rule out coalition with Labour party led by John McDonnell..."
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/855892437453164545

    I think we are still waiting on the Times/Panelbase poll numbers?
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The fact that there's a Survation Scottish poll also showing the Conservatives doing well is actually more interesting than a single freakish Panelbase poll.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    The Tories might be closer to the SNP in Scotland than Labour are to the Tories in the whole of the UK :o
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    Can't find the 20/1 from Wm Hill for Tories in Scotland over 9.5. Has it gone or can someone give me a link.

    http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/9388610/Total+Conservative+Party+Seats+In+Scotland+Over+Under.html

    Edit now down to 14/1 - But still fill your fecking boots
    i'm on - only let me have 35 quid on it
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,087
    bigjohnowls said:

    Barnesian said:

    email from Tim Farron

    "I want to make this clear.

    The Liberal Democrats will not enter into any coalition deal with either Theresa May’s Conservatives or Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party."

    But I still havent found an answer to whether being gay is sinful
    He said it wasn't.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    kle4 said:

    It's honestly hard to tell the difference between that CorbynSuperFan parody twitter account and Eoin Clarke. Frightening that one is serious.

    Which one do you think is serious?
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Barnesian said:

    email from Tim Farron

    "I want to make this clear.

    The Liberal Democrats will not enter into any coalition deal with either Theresa May’s Conservatives or Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party."

    No point voting for them, then. If they'd taken that attitude in 2010 it would have been disastrous...
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    Can't find the 20/1 from Wm Hill for Tories in Scotland over 9.5. Has it gone or can someone give me a link.

    http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/9388610/Total+Conservative+Party+Seats+In+Scotland+Over+Under.html

    Edit now down to 14/1 - But still fill your fecking boots
    i'm on - only let me have 35 quid on it
    I was allowed exactly £2.50.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    As I said, it's a quick and dirty stupid model.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    William Hill have some very eccentric markets. For example:

    SNP Total Seats - SNP to win 39 or more seats 1.11

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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Why do the STimes use different pollsters for Scotland/UK?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,691
    Chameleon said:

    Does anyone know what else we're expecting tonight? (And when?)

    One poll at least. That's all I can say
This discussion has been closed.