The idea that Angela Rayner could ever be leader of a political party is simply laughable. She is just a bang a drum trade unionist, isn't she.
CUTS CRISIS AHHHH TORIES.
Yeah these oiks should clear off and leave it for the poshos with PPE.
Current PM is neither, nor was the last lady PM......
Yep, they did other degrees at Oxford. Such diversity is why places like Stoke and Copeland feel abandoned by Westminster. Politics is for Oxford grads, not the rest of us.
Lectures from Lib Dems on diversity! Whitest, malest party in the Hoc!
True. But as they only have nine MPs they have a small pool. What percentage of the PCP are women?
When the Lib Dems had more than 50 MPS, how many of them were black or ethnic minority?
Very few. I don't deny the OP, I merely asked a question about the PCP.
UKIP’s only MP dramatically conceded the Stoke by-election – saying the party’s new leader had lost to Labour. Douglas Carswell said it was “likely” Labour had held the seat just 45 minutes after the polls closed.
UKIP’s Douglas Carswell shocked Question Time audiences when he claimed it was ‘likely’ Labour had held the Stoke seat It sparked an immediate bout of infighting, with claims he personally blocked a knighthood for Nigel Farage – which he denied. But it sets the stage for a fresh civil war today if the result is confirmed.
The election experts on here can explain it better than I can, but I think the theory goes like this:
* Postal votes are sent in in an envelope. * Both the ballot paper and the envelope have a number on them * To verify it's a valid vote, the ballot paper is removed from the envelope and the numbers are compared * This takes place before the polls close (is that still the case?) * The party election agents are allowed to witness this process and they make guesstimates. * They are not allowed to discuss this (before the poll closes) * It's a good forward indicator of the election result, and correctly predicted ScotInd14 and EUREF16.
If any of the above is inaccurate, somebody on here will say
There's two envelopes. Only the outer envelope is checked before the ballots close to check they match up. (Verification stage)
The second envelope, with the ballot paper, isn't opened until the ballots close.
The election experts on here can explain it better than I can, but I think the theory goes like this:
* Postal votes are sent in in an envelope. * Both the ballot paper and the envelope have a number on them * To verify it's a valid vote, the ballot paper is removed from the envelope and the numbers are compared * This takes place before the polls close (is that still the case?) * The party election agents are allowed to witness this process and they make guesstimates. * They are not allowed to discuss this (before the poll closes) * It's a good forward indicator of the election result, and correctly predicted ScotInd14 and EUREF16.
If any of the above is inaccurate, somebody on here will say
As I said below, the papers are supposed to be kept face down. Of course, if the opening is sloppy, the occasional paper may briefly be held face up, but usually you only get to see one end of it and only for an instant. At a well managed PV verification you might come away having glimpsed a small handful of votes. You might persuade yourself that a potentially skewed sample of a handful of votes is meaningful, and it is of course human nature to want to tell your mates you have privileged inside information (so Chinese whispers exaggerates the meaningfulness of the info as it gets passed around) but the bottom line is that, unless the counters are incompetent, a party activist attending a PV verification will come away with next to no useful information.
If this Hodges-like speculation is likely to continue for hours, I might turn in. I either wake up tomorrow quids-in, or Corbyn is surely gone. Win-win.
UKIP’s only MP dramatically conceded the Stoke by-election – saying the party’s new leader had lost to Labour. Douglas Carswell said it was “likely” Labour had held the seat just 45 minutes after the polls closed.
UKIP’s Douglas Carswell shocked Question Time audiences when he claimed it was ‘likely’ Labour had held the Stoke seat It sparked an immediate bout of infighting, with claims he personally blocked a knighthood for Nigel Farage – which he denied. But it sets the stage for a fresh civil war today if the result is confirmed.
UKIP’s only MP dramatically conceded the Stoke by-election – saying the party’s new leader had lost to Labour. Douglas Carswell said it was “likely” Labour had held the seat just 45 minutes after the polls closed.
UKIP’s Douglas Carswell shocked Question Time audiences when he claimed it was ‘likely’ Labour had held the Stoke seat It sparked an immediate bout of infighting, with claims he personally blocked a knighthood for Nigel Farage – which he denied. But it sets the stage for a fresh civil war today if the result is confirmed.
UKIP’s only MP dramatically conceded the Stoke by-election – saying the party’s new leader had lost to Labour. Douglas Carswell said it was “likely” Labour had held the seat just 45 minutes after the polls closed.
UKIP’s Douglas Carswell shocked Question Time audiences when he claimed it was ‘likely’ Labour had held the Stoke seat It sparked an immediate bout of infighting, with claims he personally blocked a knighthood for Nigel Farage – which he denied. But it sets the stage for a fresh civil war today if the result is confirmed.
The election experts on here can explain it better than I can, but I think the theory goes like this:
* Postal votes are sent in in an envelope. * Both the ballot paper and the envelope have a number on them * To verify it's a valid vote, the ballot paper is removed from the envelope and the numbers are compared * This takes place before the polls close (is that still the case?) * The party election agents are allowed to witness this process and they make guesstimates. * They are not allowed to discuss this (before the poll closes) * It's a good forward indicator of the election result, and correctly predicted ScotInd14 and EUREF16.
If any of the above is inaccurate, somebody on here will say
As I said below, the papers are supposed to be kept face down. Of course, if the opening is sloppy, the occasional paper may briefly be held face up, but usually you only get to see one end of it and only for an instant. At a well managed PV verification you might come away having glimpsed a small handful of votes. You might persuade yourself that a potentially skewed sample of a handful of votes is meaningful, and it is of course human nature to want to tell your mates you have privileged inside information (so Chinese whispers exaggerates the meaningfulness of the info as it gets passed around) but the bottom line is that, unless the counters are incompetent, a party activist attending a PV verification will come away with next to no useful information.
Labour List (or Uncut?) had a story during the 2015 GE campaign about party staff gleaning info from pen marks visible through the ballot papers. Their sources predicted Labour doing poorly.
why are rurual areas so Tory? Some areas are very wealthy but aren't most rurual areas avreage?
It is in part the age mix. Certainly in Leics, the County is demographically older and richer, and whiter too though I think ethnicity not an issue in Copeland.
If Corbyn contrives to lose Copeland he has no-one to blame but himself and his laughable acolytes from the insane Hard Left wing of the party. Let him blame the 'Blairites', the Old Right, the Soft Left, the Union Right: he will just expose himself as a clown. I fucking hate the PBism 'popcorn' but if there is any time to grazing on saccharine superheated maize kernels, this is likely to be it.
The election experts on here can explain it better than I can, but I think the theory goes like this:
* Postal votes are sent in in an envelope. * Both the ballot paper and the envelope have a number on them * To verify it's a valid vote, the ballot paper is removed from the envelope and the numbers are compared * This takes place before the polls close (is that still the case?) * The party election agents are allowed to witness this process and they make guesstimates. * They are not allowed to discuss this (before the poll closes) * It's a good forward indicator of the election result, and correctly predicted ScotInd14 and EUREF16.
If any of the above is inaccurate, somebody on here will say
There's two envelopes. Only the outer envelope is checked before the ballots close to check they match up. (Verification stage)
The second envelope, with the ballot paper, isn't opened until the ballots close.
That isn't right.
For the real anoraks, the full instructions are here: (page 36)
If anyone wants to get on Conservatives in Copeland, much better odds at Smarkets (jumping around, 1.27 now vs 1.19 at Betfair, but I got on at quite a bit higher - sufficiently so that I suspect a "malfunction" will be declared.
why are rurual areas so Tory? Some areas are very wealthy but aren't most rurual areas avreage?
Because most rural areas are culturally conservative.
They tend to be older, whiter, and see less visible benefit from public spending - big buildings go in the most urban areas on a "bang for your buck" principles, whereas the mere fact it costs more to deliver services like social care when you have to drive for miles to do it goes unnoticed.
If UKIP are third then as I've thought post-referendum the party is deceased and void of purpose. Time to shut up shop, disband and celebrate Article 50 and a mission accomplished.
@iankatz1000: Interesting strategy: if Lab loses one of bylelections Corbyn team planning concerted attack on Blairites reports @nicholaswatt #newsnight
@Jake_Wilde: I heard they asked Ken to draw up the strategy and he called it Codename Final Solution twitter.com/iankatz1000/st…
The election experts on here can explain it better than I can, but I think the theory goes like this:
* Postal votes are sent in in an envelope. * Both the ballot paper and the envelope have a number on them * To verify it's a valid vote, the ballot paper is removed from the envelope and the numbers are compared * This takes place before the polls close (is that still the case?) * The party election agents are allowed to witness this process and they make guesstimates. * They are not allowed to discuss this (before the poll closes) * It's a good forward indicator of the election result, and correctly predicted ScotInd14 and EUREF16.
If any of the above is inaccurate, somebody on here will say
As I said below, the papers are supposed to be kept face down. Of course, if the opening is sloppy, the occasional paper may briefly be held face up, but usually you only get to see one end of it and only for an instant. At a well managed PV verification you might come away having glimpsed a small handful of votes. You might persuade yourself that a potentially skewed sample of a handful of votes is meaningful, and it is of course human nature to want to tell your mates you have privileged inside information (so Chinese whispers exaggerates the meaningfulness of the info as it gets passed around) but the bottom line is that, unless the counters are incompetent, a party activist attending a PV verification will come away with next to no useful information.
Labour List (or Uncut?) had a story during the 2015 GE campaign about party staff gleaning info from pen marks visible through the ballot papers. Their sources predicted Labour doing poorly.
Maybe, but I doubt it was meaningful.
You're the party activist who decides (or who is sent) to watch the opening (noting that there are usual several different openings with papers opened in batches). When you get back to base everyone is desperate to hear how things are going (disregarding that telling them isn't legal anyway). You haven't seen that much but the pressure to say something like "well I only saw a few votes but party X seemed to be doing well" is heavy. Three persons down the conversation chain and this turns into "Fred went to the PV count and party X was winning them".
why are rurual areas so Tory? Some areas are very wealthy but aren't most rurual areas avreage?
Because most rural areas are culturally conservative.
They tend to be older, whiter, and see less visible benefit from public spending - big buildings go in the most urban areas on a "bang for your buck" principles, whereas the mere fact it costs more to deliver services like social care when you have to drive for miles to do it goes unnoticed.
Rural areas don't have same history of being unionised, generally speaking.
He means that the Tory price is now so short and Labour's so long that the Tory victory looks certain, as far as the betting markets are concerned (not that they were right in the EU Ref)
UKIP’s only MP dramatically conceded the Stoke by-election – saying the party’s new leader had lost to Labour. Douglas Carswell said it was “likely” Labour had held the seat just 45 minutes after the polls closed.
UKIP’s Douglas Carswell shocked Question Time audiences when he claimed it was ‘likely’ Labour had held the Stoke seat It sparked an immediate bout of infighting, with claims he personally blocked a knighthood for Nigel Farage – which he denied. But it sets the stage for a fresh civil war today if the result is confirmed.
He means that the Tory price is now so short and Labour's so long that the Tory victory looks certain, as far as the betting markets are concerned (not that they were right in the EU Ref)
why are rurual areas so Tory? Some areas are very wealthy but aren't most rurual areas avreage?
Because most rural areas are culturally conservative.
They tend to be older, whiter, and see less visible benefit from public spending - big buildings go in the most urban areas on a "bang for your buck" principles, whereas the mere fact it costs more to deliver services like social care when you have to drive for miles to do it goes unnoticed.
Rural areas don't have same history of being unionised, generally speaking.
why are rurual areas so Tory? Some areas are very wealthy but aren't most rurual areas avreage?
Because most rural areas are culturally conservative.
They tend to be older, whiter, and see less visible benefit from public spending - big buildings go in the most urban areas on a "bang for your buck" principles, whereas the mere fact it costs more to deliver services like social care when you have to drive for miles to do it goes unnoticed.
Rural areas don't have same history of being unionised, generally speaking.
And Labour often don't even try - though some surprising council areas were Labour in the days when agricultural labourers existed in significant numbers. Now there's barely anyone in the party who can point out why an article called "Britain’s Future Must Speak For Both Englands - The Towns And The Cities" is missing a large proportion of the population out. (I'm looking at you, Lisa Nandy).
why are rurual areas so Tory? Some areas are very wealthy but aren't most rurual areas avreage?
Because most rural areas are culturally conservative.
They tend to be older, whiter, and see less visible benefit from public spending - big buildings go in the most urban areas on a "bang for your buck" principles, whereas the mere fact it costs more to deliver services like social care when you have to drive for miles to do it goes unnoticed.
Rural areas don't have same history of being unionised, generally speaking.
And Labour often don't even try - though some surprising council areas were Labour in the days when agricultural labourers existed in significant numbers. Now there's barely anyone in the party who can point out why an article called "Britain’s Future Must Speak For Both Englands - The Towns And The Cities" is missing a large proportion of the population out. (I'm looking at you, Lisa Nandy).
What proportion of the population do you think lives outside towns and cities?
why are rurual areas so Tory? Some areas are very wealthy but aren't most rurual areas avreage?
Because most rural areas are culturally conservative.
They tend to be older, whiter, and see less visible benefit from public spending - big buildings go in the most urban areas on a "bang for your buck" principles, whereas the mere fact it costs more to deliver services like social care when you have to drive for miles to do it goes unnoticed.
Rural areas don't have same history of being unionised, generally speaking.
And Labour often don't even try - though some surprising council areas were Labour in the days when agricultural labourers existed in significant numbers. Now there's barely anyone in the party who can point out why an article called "Britain’s Future Must Speak For Both Englands - The Towns And The Cities" is missing a large proportion of the population out. (I'm looking at you, Lisa Nandy).
What proportion of the population do you think lives outside towns and cities?
why are rurual areas so Tory? Some areas are very wealthy but aren't most rurual areas avreage?
Because most rural areas are culturally conservative.
They tend to be older, whiter, and see less visible benefit from public spending - big buildings go in the most urban areas on a "bang for your buck" principles, whereas the mere fact it costs more to deliver services like social care when you have to drive for miles to do it goes unnoticed.
Rural areas don't have same history of being unionised, generally speaking.
And Labour often don't even try - though some surprising council areas were Labour in the days when agricultural labourers existed in significant numbers. Now there's barely anyone in the party who can point out why an article called "Britain’s Future Must Speak For Both Englands - The Towns And The Cities" is missing a large proportion of the population out. (I'm looking at you, Lisa Nandy).
What proportion of the population do you think lives outside towns and cities?
why are rurual areas so Tory? Some areas are very wealthy but aren't most rurual areas avreage?
Because most rural areas are culturally conservative.
They tend to be older, whiter, and see less visible benefit from public spending - big buildings go in the most urban areas on a "bang for your buck" principles, whereas the mere fact it costs more to deliver services like social care when you have to drive for miles to do it goes unnoticed.
Rural areas don't have same history of being unionised, generally speaking.
And Labour often don't even try - though some surprising council areas were Labour in the days when agricultural labourers existed in significant numbers. Now there's barely anyone in the party who can point out why an article called "Britain’s Future Must Speak For Both Englands - The Towns And The Cities" is missing a large proportion of the population out. (I'm looking at you, Lisa Nandy).
What proportion of the population do you think lives outside towns and cities?
Back with another new name????
Ish. I explain upthread!
If you keep losing letters at the current rate your username will be BoB before the next Labour government.
why are rurual areas so Tory? Some areas are very wealthy but aren't most rurual areas avreage?
Because most rural areas are culturally conservative.
They tend to be older, whiter, and see less visible benefit from public spending - big buildings go in the most urban areas on a "bang for your buck" principles, whereas the mere fact it costs more to deliver services like social care when you have to drive for miles to do it goes unnoticed.
Rural areas don't have same history of being unionised, generally speaking.
And Labour often don't even try - though some surprising council areas were Labour in the days when agricultural labourers existed in significant numbers. Now there's barely anyone in the party who can point out why an article called "Britain’s Future Must Speak For Both Englands - The Towns And The Cities" is missing a large proportion of the population out. (I'm looking at you, Lisa Nandy).
What proportion of the population do you think lives outside towns and cities?
Back with another new name????
Ish. I explain upthread!
If you keep losing letters at the current rate your username will be BoB before the next Labour government.
There is tons of documentation on the Electoral Commission website, covering every aspect of the electoral process with separate guidance aimed at and written for candidates, agents, and returning officers, as well as stuff for voters. They are generally exceptionally clear, concise and well written; a model for other public services.
I wish they would market themselves out to write instruction manuals for DVD players and double ovens.
Comments
The second envelope, with the ballot paper, isn't opened until the ballots close.
Erm... at least I *might* have got the winning side right...?
in stoke central
stoke.
?!?!?
Especially if (please please for the sake of my SPIN account) the Tories sneak 2nd....
This is what Labour has been reduced to. They can't even contemplate mounting a serious challenge to the Conservatives.
https://twitter.com/charliebayliss_/status/834913314299863040
Daily Mail outsourcing its bar charts to the Lib Dem graphic design team.
UKIP possible third in Stoke?
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/834916551971201024
For the real anoraks, the full instructions are here: (page 36)
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/141983/LGEW-MAY-RO-Part-D-Absent-voting.pdf
The hill farms will be small and poor, and the farmers not very well off.
Night Night!
9,000 postal votes
- Sky
Took me a while, but I got there in the end....
@Jake_Wilde: I heard they asked Ken to draw up the strategy and he called it Codename Final Solution twitter.com/iankatz1000/st…
You're the party activist who decides (or who is sent) to watch the opening (noting that there are usual several different openings with papers opened in batches). When you get back to base everyone is desperate to hear how things are going (disregarding that telling them isn't legal anyway). You haven't seen that much but the pressure to say something like "well I only saw a few votes but party X seemed to be doing well" is heavy. Three persons down the conversation chain and this turns into "Fred went to the PV count and party X was winning them".
Thank you for your replies, especially http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/141983/LGEW-MAY-RO-Part-D-Absent-voting.pdf
At Stoke Fiona Ledden, the acting returning officer, has just announced the turnout figures.
There were 21,200 ballots cast - 4,335 postal votes and 16,865 polling station votes.
That amounts to a turnout of 38.16%.
That’s is reasonably good for a byelection held on the day of a severe storm.
Have you got a spreadsheet that means I don't have to think???!!
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/834921330189402112
I wish they would market themselves out to write instruction manuals for DVD players and double ovens.
I do not support UKIP at all but I do think Paul Nuttall will devastate labour in their heartlands with his scouse accent and appeal to the WWC vote.
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1359669/#Comment_1359669