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  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    Both by-election turnouts around 12 points short of the GE.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited February 2017
    Unsuallly high turnouts in both. Even more impressive given the weather.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    BBC saying Copeland still too close to call
  • BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    Mortimer said:

    Bojabob said:

    MikeL said:

    It's worth recalling that when Nuttall was elected UKIP leader he was seen as a huge electoral plus for UKIP.

    Yes, by the media, who assumed that because he was working class, other working class people would naturally vote for him...

    It was always a very patronising, middle class view that a Scouse accent would have erstwhile working class Labour voters flocking to UKIP.

    By your own definition, does this count as virtue signalling?
    Time for bed!!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    isam said:

    AndyJS said:

    Stoke turnout: 38.16%. Reports of 20% total nonsense.

    20% of the votes were Postal votes.. what does that tell us?

    Have you got a spreadsheet that means I don't have to think???!!
    I don't think a spreadsheet is applicable tonight!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    I'm fading fast - not helped by sups of Whisky.
  • Bojabob said:

    MikeL said:

    It's worth recalling that when Nuttall was elected UKIP leader he was seen as a huge electoral plus for UKIP.

    Yes, by the media, who assumed that because he was working class, other working class people would naturally vote for him...
    It's unfair on Big G but I still love this comment:

    I do not support UKIP at all but I do think Paul Nuttall will devastate labour in their heartlands with his scouse accent and appeal to the WWC vote.

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1359669/#Comment_1359669
    Well done on spotting that and I am pleased he looks as if he has been put back in his box
  • Mortimer said:

    Bojabob said:

    MikeL said:

    It's worth recalling that when Nuttall was elected UKIP leader he was seen as a huge electoral plus for UKIP.

    Yes, by the media, who assumed that because he was working class, other working class people would naturally vote for him...

    It was always a very patronising, middle class view that a Scouse accent would have erstwhile working class Labour voters flocking to UKIP.

    By your own definition, does this count as virtue signalling?

    Absolutely - I am signalling the virtue of having been right.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148
    edited February 2017
    Mortimer said:

    I'm fading fast - not helped by sups of Whisky.

    Low energy. Sad! :D
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    HYUFD said:

    BBC saying Copeland still too close to call

    LOL. This is after Dimbles called it for them during QT...
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    HYUFD said:

    BBC saying Copeland still too close to call

    They need people to stay up and watch. It's over.
  • tim80tim80 Posts: 99

    Unsuallly high turnouts in both. Even more impressive given the weather.

    Brexit has increased engagement in Westminster Parliamentary politics. As it should - the House of Commons is regaining power.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    I'm fading fast - not helped by sups of Whisky.

    Low energy. Sad! :D
    Indeed. The binary nature of the wee pup is hilarious - he goes from sound asleep to manic jawing about 3 times an hour, starting early. And I'm not even getting an awful lot of work done...
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    HYUFD said:

    BBC saying Copeland still too close to call

    Hasn't Dimbledore already declared it?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Lab still 1.16 in Stoke.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    BBC saying Copeland still too close to call

    LOL. This is after Dimbles called it for them during QT...
    That 30 seconds on Betfair was brilliant, had been looking to get Lab/Tory a bit more balanced in Copeland at something like a sensible price for ages.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    DanSmith said:

    HYUFD said:

    BBC saying Copeland still too close to call

    They need people to stay up and watch. It's over.
    Looks that way but not certain yet

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/834921484598509570
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    Mortimer said:

    HYUFD said:

    BBC saying Copeland still too close to call

    LOL. This is after Dimbles called it for them during QT...
    That 30 seconds on Betfair was brilliant, had been looking to get Lab/Tory a bit more balanced in Copeland at something like a sensible price for ages.
    I had £100 on Labour about a month ago at 2.8 I think and manage to make it 0 or £28 thanks to that! Unreal, maybe he will get sacked like the Sutton reserve keeper
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Turnout in Copeland 51% apparently.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    HYUFD said:

    DanSmith said:

    HYUFD said:

    BBC saying Copeland still too close to call

    They need people to stay up and watch. It's over.
    Looks that way but not certain yet

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/834921484598509570
    Lol - John Woodcock next up to resign ?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,767
    IanB2 said:

    viewcode said:
    There is tons of documentation on the Electoral Commission website, covering every aspect of the electoral process with separate guidance aimed at and written for candidates, agents, and returning officers, as well as stuff for voters. They are generally exceptionally clear, concise and well written; a model for other public services....
    Good to know, thank you

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Just backed Labour at 1.2 in Stoke, hopefully the worst £200 I had this by Election!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,265
    Right, I'm off - gotta be sharp tomorrow. Just remind you that I called it for the Tories three weeks back with a majority of 1,250, give or take a bit. Not inclined to revise that.

    Also said Labour would hold Stoke - by a bit better than was expected.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited February 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    DanSmith said:

    HYUFD said:

    BBC saying Copeland still too close to call

    They need people to stay up and watch. It's over.
    Looks that way but not certain yet

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/834921484598509570
    Lol - John Woodcock next up to resign ?
    What about Charlie Falconer - anyone know where he stands?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    Pulpstar said:

    HYUFD said:

    DanSmith said:

    HYUFD said:

    BBC saying Copeland still too close to call

    They need people to stay up and watch. It's over.
    Looks that way but not certain yet

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/834921484598509570
    Lol - John Woodcock next up to resign ?
    Tories gain Barrow certainly now on the cards!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mortimer said:

    Bojabob said:

    MikeL said:

    It's worth recalling that when Nuttall was elected UKIP leader he was seen as a huge electoral plus for UKIP.

    Yes, by the media, who assumed that because he was working class, other working class people would naturally vote for him...

    It was always a very patronising, middle class view that a Scouse accent would have erstwhile working class Labour voters flocking to UKIP.

    By your own definition, does this count as virtue signalling?

    Absolutely - I am signalling the virtue of having been right.

    For shame!

    :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Jack Dromey talking absolute guff.
  • Mr harriet harperson spin isn't cutting much ice on sky.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Jack Dromey talking absolute guff.

    Somethings never change
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733
    Fun fact - the last Conservative MP for Stoke was Ida Copeland (1931-35).
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited February 2017

    Mr harriet harperson spin isn't cutting much ice on sky.

    Indeed. Though he is relaxed. Labour must have done enough IMO.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    Jack Dromey talking absolute guff.

    "I hope that we win here. But I think we need some necessary humility. Labour needs to listen to what people are telling us, and that is what we have done on this campaign.

    "Are we an alternative government? No we are not. But this has been a decisive turning point." "

    Humility means saying you've won before the votes have been counted?!

    At least he admits they are not an alternative govt.. although I think it would be quite alternative!
  • Pulpstar said:

    Jack Dromey talking absolute guff.

    That could be a post from any year in the last 3 decades.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    If, as it appears likely, Tories win in Copeland, this is a fantastic indictment of the sole, remaining Labour strategy:


    NNNNNNNHHHHHHSSSSSSS

    Will be as useful a campaign strategy in 2020 as it was in 2015 and 2010.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    I have to say that, for a party that is pretty repellent nowadays, Barry Gardiner always comes across as intelligent and reasonable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    Mortimer said:

    If, as it appears likely, Tories win in Copeland, this is a fantastic indictment of the sole, remaining Labour strategy:


    NNNNNNNHHHHHHSSSSSSS

    Will be as useful a campaign strategy in 2020 as it was in 2015 and 2010.

    It might work if they had a competent charismatic leader, as it did for Blair in 1997 but Brown, Miliband and Corbyn are neither
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2017
    IanB2 said:

    I have to say that, for a party that is pretty repellent nowadays, Barry Gardiner always comes across as intelligent and reasonable.

    Shame he is as keen on China as trump is on team Putin.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    NeilVW said:

    Fun fact - the last Conservative MP for Stoke was Ida Copeland (1931-35).

    That's one of the best bits of trivia I've ever read on here.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148
    IanB2 said:

    I have to say that, for a party that is pretty repellent nowadays, Barry Gardiner always comes across as intelligent and reasonable.

    Yeah, he pops up quite often and he does seem to be on point.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Pulpstar said:
    Depends on how the count is being organised. Often one or more helpers is assigned to go round collecting the votes for each candidate. So it depends on who went round last. And which part of the seat those votes came from. I imagine Labour has won, but a photo of a single set of piles can be misleading.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    HYUFD said:
    Now does Faisal mean that he can see "quite a few others" like that. Or "few others" (the Rest good for Nuttall).
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    HYUFD said:
    Depends where it is, if it's a Hanley ward that would be awful for them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291

    IanB2 said:

    I have to say that, for a party that is pretty repellent nowadays, Barry Gardiner always comes across as intelligent and reasonable.

    Shame he is as keen as trump on team Putin.
    The case for the defence would be that the largest threats to the western model of liberal democracy over coming decades are the Chinese model (and its spreading influence across Asia and Africa) and Islamic terrorism. Russia is a natural ally against both.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Jack Dromey talking absolute guff.

    Somethings never change

    Bojabob said:

    MikeL said:

    It's worth recalling that when Nuttall was elected UKIP leader he was seen as a huge electoral plus for UKIP.

    Yes, by the media, who assumed that because he was working class, other working class people would naturally vote for him...
    It's unfair on Big G but I still love this comment:

    I do not support UKIP at all but I do think Paul Nuttall will devastate labour in their heartlands with his scouse accent and appeal to the WWC vote.

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1359669/#Comment_1359669
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Claire_Phipps: Ukip chairman on Nuttall's future if he loses #StokeCentral: "He has a well-earned rest and then comes back and leads our party, I suspect"
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694

    HYUFD said:
    Depends where it is, if it's a Hanley ward that would be awful for them.
    We will see but looks like a Labour hold
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Adam PayneVerified account‏@adampayne26 17s17 seconds ago
    More
    Whispers at the interval:

    - Labour & Tories virtually neck and neck
    - A lot riding on how the postal votes have come back
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Right - had hoped it make it to Stoke declaration at least, but tiredness and an early start beckon. Good night, and good bets to all!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    If UKIP get within a couple of % in Stoke they could probably win a Stoke North By-election.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @hrtbps: Paul Nuttall's confidently predicting he's won Copeland.
  • Scott_P said:

    @Claire_Phipps: Ukip chairman on Nuttall's future if he loses #StokeCentral: "He has a well-earned rest and then comes back and leads our party, I suspect"

    Leicester are looking for a new manager....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Deary me, Hancock didn't know who the Stoke Tory candidate was.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Depends where it is, if it's a Hanley ward that would be awful for them.
    We will see but looks like a Labour hold
    Don't doubt it, just saying that picture alone doesn't necessarily tell us anything.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Jack Dromey talking absolute guff.

    Somethings never change

    Bojabob said:

    MikeL said:

    It's worth recalling that when Nuttall was elected UKIP leader he was seen as a huge electoral plus for UKIP.

    Yes, by the media, who assumed that because he was working class, other working class people would naturally vote for him...
    It's unfair on Big G but I still love this comment:

    I do not support UKIP at all but I do think Paul Nuttall will devastate labour in their heartlands with his scouse accent and appeal to the WWC vote.

    http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1359669/#Comment_1359669
    I have responded to williamglenn's comments accepting that Nuttall has not won over with his scouse accent etc but that has no bearing in the fact that Dromney talks guff
  • HYUFD said:
    Depends where it is, if it's a Hanley ward that would be awful for them.
    Isn't Hanley in Stoke Central?
  • IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    I have to say that, for a party that is pretty repellent nowadays, Barry Gardiner always comes across as intelligent and reasonable.

    Shame he is as keen as trump on team Putin.
    The case for the defence would be that the largest threats to the western model of liberal democracy over coming decades are the Chinese model (and its spreading influence across Asia and Africa) and Islamic terrorism. Russia is a natural ally against both.
    The Chinese model is the British empire model, isn't it? just a couple of hundred years later. Islamic terrorism mainly sponsored by Saudi/Iran. Russia is more on one side than the other, not against it per se
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    edited February 2017
    Cat Smith claiming Copeland has always been a marginal seat on BBC, her face suggests Labour has lost
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733

    HYUFD said:
    Depends where it is, if it's a Hanley ward that would be awful for them.
    Isn't Hanley in Stoke Central?
    Yes.
  • HYUFD said:

    Cat Smith claiming Copeland has always been a marginal seat on BBC, her face suggests Labour has lost

    She looks very down
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    HYUFD said:

    Cat Smith claiming Copeland has always been a marginal seat on BBC, her face suggests Labour has lost

    Loved the bit where she said with labour 16% behind in polls ,labour doing well - this is copeland we are talking about - lol
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    edited February 2017

    HYUFD said:

    Cat Smith claiming Copeland has always been a marginal seat on BBC, her face suggests Labour has lost

    She looks very down
    Yes, certainly her comments 'making it close a good result given national polls' suggests a narrow Tory win
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited February 2017

    HYUFD said:
    Depends where it is, if it's a Hanley ward that would be awful for them.
    Isn't Hanley in Stoke Central?
    Yes, but it isn't the only part of Stoke Central. It also takes in Abbey and parts of what are outer Newcastle etc.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694

    HYUFD said:

    Cat Smith claiming Copeland has always been a marginal seat on BBC, her face suggests Labour has lost

    Loved the bit where she said with labour 16% behind in polls ,labour doing well - this is copeland we are talking about - lol
    Even on national polls it should be close
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    Danny565 said:

    Adam PayneVerified account‏@adampayne26 17s17 seconds ago
    More
    Whispers at the interval:

    - Labour & Tories virtually neck and neck
    - A lot riding on how the postal votes have come back

    The PVs aren't counted separately, but should be mixed in before the count stage begins. Of course the mixing is not always thorough but if they are watching the piles grow, the PVs are in them as well.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    I really hope Cat Smith isn't deluded enough to believe all of that....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Copeland Betfair isn't moving much - suggests Lab still has a reasonable chance.
  • Labour candidate just arrived at the count in Stoke
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Labour candidate just arrived at the count in Stoke

    Declaration coming soon, then?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    edited February 2017
    Independent Mayor of Copeland on BBC says will be a majority in the hundreds not thousands but Tories growing in confidence. He says losing it would be 'catastrophic' for Labour as nobody alive can remember a non Labour MP for the seat
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    UKIP blaming the media...
  • UKIP getting their excuses in pre-declaration on Sky News 'sustained character assassination of Paul'.

    By pointing out things he had actually said and done. Damned biased media!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,291
    IanB2 said:

    Danny565 said:

    Adam PayneVerified account‏@adampayne26 17s17 seconds ago
    More
    Whispers at the interval:

    - Labour & Tories virtually neck and neck
    - A lot riding on how the postal votes have come back

    The PVs aren't counted separately, but should be mixed in before the count stage begins. Of course the mixing is not always thorough but if they are watching the piles grow, the PVs are in them as well.
    Although, correcting myself, if it's the interval the count hasn't started, and the assessment is based on party tallying at the verification of non-PVs only. So he is right that the PVs may be critical, assuming the tallying is good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    John Curtice confirms if Labour lose Copeland will be worst result in a by election for an opposition party since 1945
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    John Curtice:

    If Lab lose Copeland it's the worst result for any opposition since 1945.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,554
    edited February 2017
    Way ukip guy is blaming everybody under the sun on sky...Ukip clearly got the dockside hooker treatment in stoke.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited February 2017
    MikeL said:

    John Curtice:

    If Lab lose Copeland it's the worst result for any opposition since 1945.

    Prof John Curtice has an encyclopedic knowledge of political events – most impressive.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587

    Bojabob said:

    MikeL said:

    It's worth recalling that when Nuttall was elected UKIP leader he was seen as a huge electoral plus for UKIP.

    Yes, by the media, who assumed that because he was working class, other working class people would naturally vote for him...

    It was always a very patronising, middle class view that a Scouse accent would have erstwhile working class Labour voters flocking to UKIP.

    That's right. The odd thing is that UKIP seems to have thought so too.
  • And ukip guy finishes with blaming the voters....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Con just drifted a bit in Copeland.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Curtice says ukip should be going after the tories not labour.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    Jack Dromey claims Stoke will show it is UKIP and Paul Nuttall who are broken and not Labour
  • And ukip guy finishes with blaming the voters....

    Best bit of the whole rant. Am enjoying the 'UKIP busted flush' phase of the weirdness that is 21st century politics in the UK.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Con out to 1.21 in Copeland.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    MikeL said:

    Con out to 1.21 in Copeland.

    Stop teasing me :( It's over.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Tories out to 1000 in Stoke ;)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:

    Con out to 1.21 in Copeland.

    Stop teasing me :( It's over.
    It does appear to be very close.

    I just wonder if everyone has jumped the gun here.

    The comment that might be key was that there was Con to LD drift in rural areas.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Tories out to 1000 in Stoke ;)

    Yes. Looking a little unlikely ;)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Dromey:

    "Lab is party of strong defence"

    LOL
  • MikeL said:

    John Curtice:

    If Lab lose Copeland it's the worst result for any opposition since 1945.

    Prof John Curtice has an encyclopedic knowledge of political events – most impressive.

    MikeL said:

    John Curtice:

    If Lab lose Copeland it's the worst result for any opposition since 1945.

    Prof John Curtice has an encyclopedic knowledge of political events – most impressive.
    Is this the same geezer that kept saying the Brexit vote was too close to call when it was bleeding obviously no?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    MikeL said:

    Danny565 said:

    MikeL said:

    Con out to 1.21 in Copeland.

    Stop teasing me :( It's over.
    It does appear to be very close.

    I just wonder if everyone has jumped the gun here.

    The comment that might be key was that there was Con to LD drift in rural areas.
    Yes but as Hodges has said Whitehaven now looking better for Tories anyway and some Tory to LD drift is still not raising the Labour vote
This discussion has been closed.