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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448

    The only way is Epping :)

    You made it back from Stoke then Sunil? @JackW was very concerned about you earlier.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,265
    HYUFD said:
    We have a firewall against the yellow tide!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Jonathan said:

    With Labour at 26% nationally two wins IMO is a good result.

    Anything less is a serious problem. Both defeats would be a catastrophe.

    It's a big night.

    It doesn't look like two holds at the moment.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:

    @iankatz1000: Shadow health sec @JonAshworth on Stoke Central and Copeland byelections: "We have to win them both" #Newsnight

    interesting. On manoeuvres again?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Jonathan said:

    With Labour at 26% nationally two wins IMO is a good result.

    Anything less is a serious problem. Both defeats would be a catastrophe.

    It's a big night.

    We seem to have reversed roles, compared to where we were last summer :D

    Labour should be romping home in midterm by-elections in seats they've held since the 1930s, IMO.
  • I could see something like

    Labour 6500
    Tory 5000
    UKIP 4000
    Others 1500
    Labour 4,000
    Tory 4,000
    Ukip 4,000...

    Lib Dem 4,001 ?! ;-))
    I just had £2 on the Limp Dumps at 500/1 ;-)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Scott_P said:

    @iankatz1000: Shadow health sec @JonAshworth on Stoke Central and Copeland byelections: "We have to win them both" #Newsnight

    If he's saying they have to win them, he must be reasonably confident they have done, or he'd be more circumspect?

    I confess, I thought Carswell would have been out of UKIP by now.
  • That Kettering result is surreal....
  • SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News: turnout in Stoke could be as low as 25%.

    What's the lowest ever turnout in a UK By-elex?
    18.2% in Manchester Central in 2012.

    I voted in that by election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Lib Dems shorter than UKIP in Copeland lol
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    That Kettering result is surreal....

    Isn't that Peter Bone territory ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694

    HYUFD said:
    We have a firewall against the yellow tide!
    Yes, the TOWIE vote not yet turning to Tim Farron!
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    If turnout in Stoke is down to 20% then Barbara Fielding might have done it! #Babs4PM
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,265

    That Kettering result is surreal....

    Still not exactly the story of the night though....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    edited February 2017
    kle4 said:



    I confess, I thought Carswell would have been out of UKIP by now.

    Who'd want him though? He's trouble with a T!

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:



    I confess, I thought Carswell would have been out of UKIP by now.

    Who'd want him though? He's trouble with a T!

    I assumed he'd go full indy.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dadge said:

    If turnout in Stoke is down to 20% then Barbara Fielding might have done it! #Babs4PM

    It has to be bad news for Labour if turnout is as low as 20%.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733

    SeanT said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sky News: turnout in Stoke could be as low as 25%.

    What's the lowest ever turnout in a UK By-elex?
    18.2% in Manchester Central in 2012.

    I voted in that by election.
    Great result. Gave us the comedy gold who was Lucy Powell.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    That Kettering result is surreal....

    The percentages tell a fraction of the story.

    In 2015, the Tories polled 600 more than the entire turnout for today's by election.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Turnout for South Hams council by election 46.5% !!! Higher than Stoke and possibly Copeland also
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    Pulpstar said:

    That Kettering result is surreal....

    Isn't that Peter Bone territory ?
    Close. Philip Hollobone is MP for Kettering but Mr and Mrs Bone are down the road in Wellingborough.
  • chestnut said:

    That Kettering result is surreal....

    The percentages tell a fraction of the story.

    In 2015, the Tories polled 600 more than the entire turnout for today's by election.
    A very good point - thanks.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Maomentum_: Labour sources now saying they are pessimistic about outcome of expectation management strategy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    David Dimbleby just said Labour have held Copeland, if the Tories win it can we finally send him off to a dignified retirement and get Andrew Neil on, especially given his coverage of the by elections has not even started yet!!
  • GIN1138 said:

    The only way is Epping :)

    You made it back from Stoke then Sunil? @JackW was very concerned about you earlier.
    Oh? I'm fine if a little chilled :)

    I was at Doncaster, Knottingley, Wakefield Kirkgate and Leeds stations today. Grand Central train due at Donny at 1224 towards Pontefract, Wakefield and Bradford didn't turn up by 1.30, so I returned to Leeds :(
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    lots of money for Labour in Copeland....
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Turnout for South Hams council by election 46.5% !!! Higher than Stoke and possibly Copeland also

    Well-to-do oldies. Much better weather.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JGForsyth: Dimbleby saying on the BBC that Labour have held both Stoke and Copeland
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    chestnut said:

    That Kettering result is surreal....

    The percentages tell a fraction of the story.

    In 2015, the Tories polled 600 more than the entire turnout for today's by election.
    And it looks like Lab didn't put up a candidate so there was a progressive alliance of REMAINERS in Kettering.

    Wouldn't happen in a general...
  • While we wait:

    Now the National’s sales have collapsed. ..... In 2015 the paper sold an average of 12,124 per edition. In 2016 that fell to 8,496.

    With Nationalists keen to talk up the supposed inevitability of a second referendum, and to claim that there is some great clamour for another vote when there isn’t, it is interesting that the National is tanking and is outsold by the Greenock Telegraph local newspaper.


    https://reaction.life/oops-sales-snp-propaganda-newspaper-national-plummet-30/
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    midwinter said:

    lots of money for Labour in Copeland....

    Based on Dimbleby's comment on QT just now.
  • Pulpstar said:

    That Kettering result is surreal....

    Isn't that Peter Bone territory ?
    I think it is my former colleague Phillip Hollobone....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    In Stoke Labour sources are now saying, although it’s early days, they are “very confident” they have held the seat.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    I really hope Labour don't overdo it if, as I expect, they win both. It really should not be difficult in these seats, and I think the leadership seem to know that, but the online Corbynistas may well explode at the 'triumph'.
  • Labour about to become favourites in Copeland.....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Dimbleby saying on the BBC that Labour have held both Stoke and Copeland

    Odds have certainly shifted! but that election night dilemma- is this fake news?
  • DanSmith said:

    midwinter said:

    lots of money for Labour in Copeland....

    Based on Dimbleby's comment on QT just now.

    Isn't QT pre-recorded?

  • Oooh crossover approaching in Copeland.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    Labour about to become favourites in Copeland.....

    Lets hope Dimbleby didn't mishear the message in his earpiece...
  • Labour now favourites in Copeland with Betfair
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    In other election news (far less important than Stoke and Copeland, obviously...)

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/834903385992110082
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    DanSmith said:

    midwinter said:

    lots of money for Labour in Copeland....

    Based on Dimbleby's comment on QT just now.

    Isn't QT pre-recorded?

    This is live. He referred to the polls closing 50 minute ago.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Dixie said:

    The market seems extremely confident Labour will hold Stoke. More so than the Tories gaining Copeland.

    That's got to be right though. Labour have never lost inner city Stoke. If they lose this then they have no hope
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/staffordshire/7378939.stm

    which part of stoke did BNP win in?
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    And back to the Tories
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    DanSmith said:

    midwinter said:

    lots of money for Labour in Copeland....

    Based on Dimbleby's comment on QT just now.
    Looks like Mike Smithson has a rival for the UK's number one market moving pensioner! :open_mouth:
  • Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Dimbleby saying on the BBC that Labour have held both Stoke and Copeland

    I seemed to remember they were wrong about GE and Brexit results too...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Well that was nice to be able to back the Tories at over Evens in Copeland.
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    Scott_P said:

    @iankatz1000: Shadow health sec @JonAshworth on Stoke Central and Copeland byelections: "We have to win them both" #Newsnight

    He felt he needed to remind the viewers and the interviewer that he was in the Shad Cab - he was right.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Well that was nice to be able to back the Tories at over Evens in Copeland.

    Me too.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Surely QT is recorded earlier?

    I thought it's normally recorded at about 7pm?
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Pulpstar said:

    Well that was nice to be able to back the Tories at over Evens in Copeland.

    Pile the money in there, pretty sure Dimbleby has got this wrong.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    nunu said:

    Dixie said:

    The market seems extremely confident Labour will hold Stoke. More so than the Tories gaining Copeland.

    That's got to be right though. Labour have never lost inner city Stoke. If they lose this then they have no hope
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/staffordshire/7378939.stm

    which part of stoke did BNP win in?
    those were the days!
  • While we wait:

    Now the National’s sales have collapsed. ..... In 2015 the paper sold an average of 12,124 per edition. In 2016 that fell to 8,496.

    With Nationalists keen to talk up the supposed inevitability of a second referendum, and to claim that there is some great clamour for another vote when there isn’t, it is interesting that the National is tanking and is outsold by the Greenock Telegraph local newspaper.


    https://reaction.life/oops-sales-snp-propaganda-newspaper-national-plummet-30/

    I think its more an indication that the quality of journalism is very poor, with childish photoshopped graphics on the front page.

    I'd rather read a quality paper with an editorial line I disagree with than buy the National.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148

    Scott_P said:

    @JGForsyth: Dimbleby saying on the BBC that Labour have held both Stoke and Copeland

    I seemed to remember they were wrong about GE and Brexit results too...
    I think I'll forever remember Dimbleby's "we're out!" exclamation on the referendum night.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    It'd have to be a real novice to have bet on the basis of that. Maybe something else is happening..
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 733

    DanSmith said:

    midwinter said:

    lots of money for Labour in Copeland....

    Based on Dimbleby's comment on QT just now.

    Isn't QT pre-recorded?

    Normally yes about 8pm but sometimes live on special occasions
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    MikeL said:

    Surely QT is recorded earlier?

    I thought it's normally recorded at about 7pm?

    I think this is live tonight.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    I've been on QT. My episode was pre-recorded by about 1hr 15.

    Unless this episode was for some reason live? I always imagined it was not live because the odd unpredictable comment might have to be cut out....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    In last 35 mins just made loadsamoney backing Labour at 5 selling at 2.5

    Some compensation even if Lab lose Copeland

    Off to bed now
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Artist said:

    It'd have to be a real novice to have bet on the basis of that. Maybe something else is happening..

    I've bet off the back of it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694
    edited February 2017
    DanSmith said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Well that was nice to be able to back the Tories at over Evens in Copeland.

    Pile the money in there, pretty sure Dimbleby has got this wrong.
    Well this gaffe is made for 'Have I got News for You' if wrong, could finally end Dimbleby's career. He should have handed over to Neil and you can be sure Neil will not be calling Copeland until he is pretty certain of the result
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Lib Dems gain South Hams from Conservative
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Adam Payne ✔ @adampayne26
    Labour source: activists got positive feedback in an area that was strong-UKIP in 2015. Turnout holding up too. More positive for Labour.
  • Sounds like Dimblebum talking out of his bum to me.

    Amazing that so many punters actually listen to the old duffer.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    If there is enough preliminary signs and mood music to state Labour have held Copeland with such confidence, then it surely isn't even close? I'd hope that was not the case at least, since as much as I didn't think the Tories would win, and that a lot of people wanted it to be more exciting than it was, it would be depressing for so much commentary to be even more wasted than it usually is.
  • Mortimer said:

    I've been on QT. My episode was pre-recorded by about 1hr 15.

    Unless this episode was for some reason live? I always imagined it was not live because the odd unpredictable comment might have to be cut out....

    I believe Question Times on by election nights are shown live/30 sec delay because of election/broadcasting rules.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    South Hams 30% swing Con to Lib Dem
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    Finally been able to back UKIP in Copeland at a sensible price.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited February 2017
    I don't think David dimbleby knows anything.

    A misunderstanding between journos i recon
  • GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:



    I confess, I thought Carswell would have been out of UKIP by now.

    Who'd want him though? He's trouble with a T!

    I think you mean he is a principled politician rather than a party hack.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @eljmayes: It's live tonight because of broadcasting regulations around by-elections. twitter.com/janemerrick23/…
  • Presumably the towns in Copeland will be the first to send in ballot boxes. They'll be more Labour, you'd have thought.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Danny565 said:

    Adam Payne ✔ @adampayne26
    Labour source: activists got positive feedback in an area that was strong-UKIP in 2015. Turnout holding up too. More positive for Labour.

    Christ. Labour activists keep mistaking people being nice to them for actual support. When will they learn?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Scott_P said:

    @eljmayes: It's live tonight because of broadcasting regulations around by-elections. twitter.com/janemerrick23/…

    OK - many thanks - makes complete sense.
  • South Hams 30% swing Con to Lib Dem

    No-one cares about your Limp Dumps tonight.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,694

    In other election news (far less important than Stoke and Copeland, obviously...)

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/834903385992110082

    Harris also out today has it Le Pen 25% Fillon 21% Macron 20%
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
  • QT defo live tonight
  • Sounds like Dimblebum talking out of his bum to me.

    Amazing that so many punters actually listen to the old duffer.

    We saw it on general election. Con held Nuneaton with an increased majority, I called Tory majority, but the BBC/Sky/ITV still had a big banner on screen saying 'Hung Parliament'

    So Tory majority on Betfair was close to 2/1

    Kerching.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Mortimer said:

    I've been on QT. My episode was pre-recorded by about 1hr 15.

    Unless this episode was for some reason live? I always imagined it was not live because the odd unpredictable comment might have to be cut out....

    Just a few seconds needed for that. Several panel members have commented tbat the polls have closed.
  • Lib Dems gain South Hams from Conservative

    Lib Dems are doing very well in locals and if the conservatives do not win Copeland, the NHS has to become number one with Theresa May once she has served A50
  • BojabobBojabob Posts: 642
    Let's hope @Danny565 is right and a defeat in Copeland is enough to see off Corbyn. The PLP should guarantee nominations to Rebecca Long-Bailey. Think Nandy would beat her. Took the 11/4 on the Labour double a few days back but neither hope nor expect to win it. Labour will hold Stoke by about 1,000 votes I think.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    If Dave Dim is right, I'm glad I have stuck rigidly to 2 Labour wins. But....Tories think they are close in Copeland and may win it.
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    right off to bed. Awake at 3 am. Thanks for hosting great site, Mike.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654

    Sounds like Dimblebum talking out of his bum to me.

    Amazing that so many punters actually listen to the old duffer.

    We saw it on general election. Con held Nuneaton with an increased majority, I called Tory majority, but the BBC/Sky/ITV still had a big banner on screen saying 'Hung Parliament'

    So Tory majority on Betfair was close to 2/1

    Kerching.
    Dimbleby's guff (Which I wasn't even watching) allowed me to get the Tories from -160 odd to + 70 on Betfair at around 1.9 or so though :>
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Probably. But even accepting this is a by-election and not a GE, will Corbyn's negative impact show itself at parliamentary level at some point at all? If the holds are fairly comfortable, then despite all the panic the seats were not really in danger, and Corbyn has more ammunition to suggest people are talking bollocks when they say he will lead them to disaster, and the Tories may well look hubristic.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    DanSmith said:

    Danny565 said:

    Adam Payne ✔ @adampayne26
    Labour source: activists got positive feedback in an area that was strong-UKIP in 2015. Turnout holding up too. More positive for Labour.

    Christ. Labour activists keep mistaking people being nice to them for actual support. When will they learn?
    Haha.

    I remember my first time telling outside a polling box. The other tellers were always very nice indeed.

    Always get the odd voter who thinks having someone (even as diminutive as me) outside a poll booth with a rosette on is a massive affront to democracy. Always worth a collective teller laugh.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,265

    Lib Dems gain South Hams from Conservative

    And Dr Sarah Wollaston is quaking in her boots.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,148
    Bojabob said:

    Let's hope @Danny565 is right and a defeat in Copeland is enough to see off Corbyn. The PLP should guarantee nominations to Rebecca Long-Bailey. Think Nandy would beat her. Took the 11/4 on the Labour double a few days back but neither hope nor expect to win it. Labour will hold Stoke by about 1,000 votes I think.

    Another forgotten password?
  • Tories back up to 73% chance on betfair in Copeland. 20 mins ago they were 47%.

    Market jumping all over the place on Copeland - Stoke is on only going up for Labour they are now at 90%
  • Lib Dems gain South Hams from Conservative

    Lib Dems are doing very well in locals and if the conservatives do not win Copeland, the NHS has to become number one with Theresa May once she has served A50
    And to be more accurate social care as that impacts on local government and directly affects the NHS
  • South Hams 30% swing Con to Lib Dem

    No-one cares about your Limp Dumps tonight.
    Bizarrely, you are probably right - even if they won both Stoke and Copeland the news would still be about the death of Labour and UKIP.
This discussion has been closed.