Presumably the towns in Copeland will be the first to send in ballot boxes. They'll be more Labour, you'd have thought.
Indeed. As would probably be predicted, an analysis of the constituency suggests that all of the Labour voting wards are in Whitehaven and closely surrounding areas. The more rural areas are all Tory.
I just spoke to Andrew Stephenson, the Tory MP for Pendle, who is putting the brakes on any runaway triumphalism among his party colleagues. He said:
It’s too early in the evening to say. This was always going to be an uphill battle for us. This has been a Labour seat for over 80 years and that Labour vote has been fairly stable over the years.
I’ve spent the last couple of weeks knocking on doors here and it’s clear there is no enthusiasm for the Labour party. But at the same time there are a lot of people who for generations have voted Labour and that core vote is still there. Whether it’s going to turn out today, we don’t know yet.
Well I'm off. Occurs to me now I know the name of the Labour candidate in Copeland but not the Tory. Clearly I'm not in the seat and targeted, but I wonder if its notable that despite being betting favourites I never noted who this prospective winner was.
Here's hoping for tight results at the least so Labour get a goddamn grip no matter what, and my wallet would prefer it be two holds.
Well I'm off. Occurs to me now I know the name of the Labour candidate in Copeland but not the Tory. Clearly I'm not in the seat and targeted, but I wonder if its notable that despite being betting favourites I never noted who this prospective winner was.
Here's hoping for tight results at the least so Labour get a goddamn grip no matter what, and my wallet would prefer it be two holds.
It's quite simple - the Labour candidate is the Maternity Hospital and the Tory candidate is the Power Station.
@DPJHodges: Labour source re-Copeland: "Early samples look like we will win".
I don't know what "early samples" are. Counting won't even have started yet (the number of voting papers in the ballot boxes have to verified against the number issued first) and representatives of the different candidates are not allowed to approach close to the counting tables. God only knows what Hodge's source is talking about.
Let's hope @Danny565 is right and a defeat in Copeland is enough to see off Corbyn. The PLP should guarantee nominations to Rebecca Long-Bailey. Think Nandy would beat her. Took the 11/4 on the Labour double a few days back but neither hope nor expect to win it. Labour will hold Stoke by about 1,000 votes I think.
Another forgotten password?
I deliberately mangled it to stop me posting for a few days (I needed a break) then couldn't change it back!
The idea that Angela Rayner could ever be leader of a political party is simply laughable. She is just a bang a drum trade unionist, isn't she.
CUTS CRISIS AHHHH TORIES.
Yeah these oiks should clear off and leave it for the poshos with PPE.
Revealing of your prejudices there perhaps?
I'm not commenting on anything other than the fact that she is the worst sort of 'anti-Tory' pro state spending at any and all costs socialist. I thought they'd gone out with the ark......
@BBCRichardMoss: Sources at #CopelandByElection count suggesting on ballot boxes looked at so far, it's all square but postal votes may help Conservatives
@DPJHodges: Labour source re-Copeland: "Early samples look like we will win".
I don't know what "early samples" are. Counting won't even have started yet (the number of voting papers in the ballot boxes have to verified against the number issued first) and representatives of the different candidates are not allowed to approach close to the counting tables. God only knows what Hodge's source is talking about.
That's not the case in my experience - the verification is face up so the counting agents get all their information from this phase. "Early samples" makes good sense as long as representative and weighted
But at the same time there are a lot of people who for generations have voted Labour and that core vote is still there.
Donkeys.
If that's the case, there has been no sea change, and all the northern seats are probably safe for Labour for another generation.
If the dire national polling does continue then I am quite sure it will be reflected in seats changing hands in a general election - which is, of course, a whole different ball game. Copeland is just the sort of place which, if it doesn't fall now, is primed to do so then.
The issue for Labour is not, of course, that it is liable to be wiped out - merely that it will be driven back into deep heartland territories where the habit/cultural loyalty vote, and large concentrations of other voter groups still interested in voting Labour under Corbyn, reside. And there, on something well short of 200 seats post-boundary change, Labour will sit forever - unless it finally comes to its senses, or it is slowly and painstakingly worn down by an alternative party able to appeal in these areas in a way that currently eludes the Conservatives.
Last note, but if Labour do contrive to lose either of these seats, are there any MPs left in Lab who have not either already resigned from or refuse to serve in the shadow cabinet to take the place of any further resignations?
The idea that Angela Rayner could ever be leader of a political party is simply laughable. She is just a bang a drum trade unionist, isn't she.
CUTS CRISIS AHHHH TORIES.
Yeah these oiks should clear off and leave it for the poshos with PPE.
Current PM is neither, nor was the last lady PM......
Yep, they did other degrees at Oxford. Such diversity is why places like Stoke and Copeland feel abandoned by Westminster. Politics is for Oxford grads, not the rest of us.
UKIP’s only MP dramatically conceded the Stoke by-election – saying the party’s new leader had lost to Labour. Douglas Carswell said it was “likely” Labour had held the seat just 45 minutes after the polls closed.
UKIP’s Douglas Carswell shocked Question Time audiences when he claimed it was ‘likely’ Labour had held the Stoke seat It sparked an immediate bout of infighting, with claims he personally blocked a knighthood for Nigel Farage – which he denied. But it sets the stage for a fresh civil war today if the result is confirmed.
The idea that Angela Rayner could ever be leader of a political party is simply laughable. She is just a bang a drum trade unionist, isn't she.
CUTS CRISIS AHHHH TORIES.
Yeah these oiks should clear off and leave it for the poshos with PPE.
Current PM is neither, nor was the last lady PM......
Yep, they did other degrees at Oxford. Such diversity is why places like Stoke and Copeland feel abandoned by Westminster. Politics is for Oxford grads, not the rest of us.
Lectures from Lib Dems on diversity! Whitest, malest party in the Hoc!
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account@DPJHodges 40s41 seconds ago More Hold the mayo. Source at the Copeland count now tells me Tory boxes held up by closure of A66. Now neck and neck.
UKIP’s only MP dramatically conceded the Stoke by-election – saying the party’s new leader had lost to Labour. Douglas Carswell said it was “likely” Labour had held the seat just 45 minutes after the polls closed.
UKIP’s Douglas Carswell shocked Question Time audiences when he claimed it was ‘likely’ Labour had held the Stoke seat It sparked an immediate bout of infighting, with claims he personally blocked a knighthood for Nigel Farage – which he denied. But it sets the stage for a fresh civil war today if the result is confirmed.
Postal vote sampling is illegal, isn't it? Or is that just before the polls close?
I don't even know what it is.. but it cant mean a 1.12 fav can it?
It is not illegal - although saying anything about it prior to close of poll certainly is - but it is almost impossible to do (given that papers are supposed to be verified face down) unless the verification is sloppily managed.
UKIP’s only MP dramatically conceded the Stoke by-election – saying the party’s new leader had lost to Labour. Douglas Carswell said it was “likely” Labour had held the seat just 45 minutes after the polls closed.
UKIP’s Douglas Carswell shocked Question Time audiences when he claimed it was ‘likely’ Labour had held the Stoke seat It sparked an immediate bout of infighting, with claims he personally blocked a knighthood for Nigel Farage – which he denied. But it sets the stage for a fresh civil war today if the result is confirmed.
The idea that Angela Rayner could ever be leader of a political party is simply laughable. She is just a bang a drum trade unionist, isn't she.
CUTS CRISIS AHHHH TORIES.
Yeah these oiks should clear off and leave it for the poshos with PPE.
Current PM is neither, nor was the last lady PM......
Yep, they did other degrees at Oxford. Such diversity is why places like Stoke and Copeland feel abandoned by Westminster. Politics is for Oxford grads, not the rest of us.
Lectures from Lib Dems on diversity! Whitest, malest party in the Hoc!
True. But as they only have nine MPs they have a small pool. What percentage of the PCP are women?
The idea that Angela Rayner could ever be leader of a political party is simply laughable. She is just a bang a drum trade unionist, isn't she.
CUTS CRISIS AHHHH TORIES.
Yeah these oiks should clear off and leave it for the poshos with PPE.
Current PM is neither, nor was the last lady PM......
Yep, they did other degrees at Oxford. Such diversity is why places like Stoke and Copeland feel abandoned by Westminster. Politics is for Oxford grads, not the rest of us.
Do you really think the LibDems are any better?
Seriously, LibDem cabinet ministers in the coalition were Huhne (PPE, Oxford), Davey (PPE, Oxford), Alexander (PPE, Oxford), Clegg (Anthropology, Cambridge), Cable (Economics, Cambridge), Laws (Economics, Cambridge).
No wonder the rest us think the LibDems can talk the talk, but they can't walk the walk.
The idea that Angela Rayner could ever be leader of a political party is simply laughable. She is just a bang a drum trade unionist, isn't she.
CUTS CRISIS AHHHH TORIES.
Yeah these oiks should clear off and leave it for the poshos with PPE.
Current PM is neither, nor was the last lady PM......
Yep, they did other degrees at Oxford. Such diversity is why places like Stoke and Copeland feel abandoned by Westminster. Politics is for Oxford grads, not the rest of us.
Lectures from Lib Dems on diversity! Whitest, malest party in the Hoc!
True. But as they only have nine MPs they have a small pool. What percentage of the PCP are women?
When the Lib Dems had more than 50 MPS, how many of them were black or ethnic minority?
The election experts on here can explain it better than I can, but I think the theory goes like this:
* Postal votes are sent in in an envelope. * Both the ballot paper and the envelope have a number on them * To verify it's a valid vote, the ballot paper is removed from the envelope and the numbers are compared * This takes place before the polls close (is that still the case?) * The party election agents are allowed to witness this process and they make guesstimates. * They are not allowed to discuss this (before the poll closes) * It's a good forward indicator of the election result, and correctly predicted ScotInd14 and EUREF16.
If any of the above is inaccurate, somebody on here will say
Last note, but if Labour do contrive to lose either of these seats, are there any MPs left in Lab who have not either already resigned from or refuse to serve in the shadow cabinet to take the place of any further resignations?
Good question. Corbyn will simply hire several who have already resigned, whether or not they actually agree to be in the Shadow Cabinet, doesn't matter.
Isn't postal vote turnout usually higher than on-the-day turnout?
Yes, although as postal voting becomes more common, and as people are 'encouraged' to sign up by party activists despite not really wanting one, and as people who want one for a particular one-off reason (or one type of election) sign themselves up indefinitely for all elections, the differential in turnout is narrowing. I can remember when PV turnout was close to 90%, nowadays it is often nearer to 70%, and I would guess Stoke is lower still even in a GE.
UKIP’s only MP dramatically conceded the Stoke by-election – saying the party’s new leader had lost to Labour. Douglas Carswell said it was “likely” Labour had held the seat just 45 minutes after the polls closed.
UKIP’s Douglas Carswell shocked Question Time audiences when he claimed it was ‘likely’ Labour had held the Stoke seat It sparked an immediate bout of infighting, with claims he personally blocked a knighthood for Nigel Farage – which he denied. But it sets the stage for a fresh civil war today if the result is confirmed.
Comments
http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pol2d_Copeland.html
It’s too early in the evening to say. This was always going to be an uphill battle for us. This has been a Labour seat for over 80 years and that Labour vote has been fairly stable over the years.
I’ve spent the last couple of weeks knocking on doors here and it’s clear there is no enthusiasm for the Labour party. But at the same time there are a lot of people who for generations have voted Labour and that core vote is still there. Whether it’s going to turn out today, we don’t know yet.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/feb/23/stoke-and-copeland-byelections-voting-almost-over-as-labour-hope-to-hold-seats-politics-live
Come on TSE. You'll cave eventually....
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account@DPJHodges 2m2 minutes ago
More
Labour source re-Copeland: "Early samples look like we will win".
http://labourlist.org/2017/02/copeland-and-stoke-central-liveblog/
Here's hoping for tight results at the least so Labour get a goddamn grip no matter what, and my wallet would prefer it be two holds.
If that's the case, there has been no sea change, and all the northern seats are probably safe for Labour for another generation.
BREAKING: Alphabet, Google's parent company, has accused Uber of stealing parts of its self-driving car technology
https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/834908138717528066
CUTS CRISIS AHHHH TORIES.
Thinks
We don't actually know anything yet, do we?
I'm too tired and can't be arsed.
See you in the morning.
Calm down people the Tories have this.
I'm not commenting on anything other than the fact that she is the worst sort of 'anti-Tory' pro state spending at any and all costs socialist. I thought they'd gone out with the ark......
I took a fiver of the Tories at 108
The issue for Labour is not, of course, that it is liable to be wiped out - merely that it will be driven back into deep heartland territories where the habit/cultural loyalty vote, and large concentrations of other voter groups still interested in voting Labour under Corbyn, reside. And there, on something well short of 200 seats post-boundary change, Labour will sit forever - unless it finally comes to its senses, or it is slowly and painstakingly worn down by an alternative party able to appeal in these areas in a way that currently eludes the Conservatives.
I've nibbled £3 of that.
Even Corbyn won't withstand a double defeat surely? Not that I think it's likely.
UKIP’s only MP dramatically conceded the Stoke by-election – saying the party’s new leader had lost to Labour. Douglas Carswell said it was “likely” Labour had held the seat just 45 minutes after the polls closed.
UKIP’s Douglas Carswell shocked Question Time audiences when he claimed it was ‘likely’ Labour had held the Stoke seat It sparked an immediate bout of infighting, with claims he personally blocked a knighthood for Nigel Farage – which he denied. But it sets the stage for a fresh civil war today if the result is confirmed.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2943022/ukips-douglas-carswell-concedes-defeat-in-stoke-central-as-its-claimed-leader-paul-nuttall-could-finish-third/
I hope it is that close now !
I am crap at betting on by-elections.
*End note to self*
More
Hold the mayo. Source at the Copeland count now tells me Tory boxes held up by closure of A66. Now neck and neck.
Ignore Dan Hodges basically.
Hold the mayo. Source at the Copeland count now tells me Tory boxes held up by closure of A66. Now neck and neck.
0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
That said, if the Tories perform (i.e. 2nd or 1st) in Stoke I might be breaking my By-election success duck tonight.....
https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/834912367720939521
I seriously am going now!
Donkeys.If that's the case, there has been no sea change, and all the northern seats are probably safe for Labour for another generation.
Are Tory voters in Surrey also donkeys? Just wondering.
Seriously, LibDem cabinet ministers in the coalition were Huhne (PPE, Oxford), Davey (PPE, Oxford), Alexander (PPE, Oxford), Clegg (Anthropology, Cambridge), Cable (Economics, Cambridge), Laws (Economics, Cambridge).
No wonder the rest us think the LibDems can talk the talk, but they can't walk the walk.
The election experts on here can explain it better than I can, but I think the theory goes like this:
* Postal votes are sent in in an envelope.
* Both the ballot paper and the envelope have a number on them
* To verify it's a valid vote, the ballot paper is removed from the envelope and the numbers are compared
* This takes place before the polls close (is that still the case?)
* The party election agents are allowed to witness this process and they make guesstimates.
* They are not allowed to discuss this (before the poll closes)
* It's a good forward indicator of the election result, and correctly predicted ScotInd14 and EUREF16.
If any of the above is inaccurate, somebody on here will say
A letter from an MP/Peer can delay/block an honour.
They can explain why or if a further investigation is needed before awarding an honour.