Is any bookmaker offering "no overall majority" in the electoral college?
That could happen if a) it's 269-269 or b) McMullin wins Utah and he and Trump get a total of between 269 and 275.
Skybet are offering 100/1 for the tie
That would be a good price if it were for NOM, what with Betfair implying a probability of 37% that McMullin will take six electoral seats.
Nate had McMullin being part of a hung EC 1 in 500 times, according to a recent 538 article. [If McMullin does well enough to win, chances are Trump's lost anyway.] The 269-269 tie itself is more likely at 0.6%. 100/1 doesn't make great appeal, therefore.
I have no special insight into Comey and the FBI re-opening their case on Hillary Clinton.
But I have to ask myself this: which is more likely?
1. Comey has gone into bat for Donald Trump, being overtly political to help save a sleazebag's Presidential bid that was flailing - at risk of huge personal shit being flung at him for intervening, and possibly being fired by the President for his pains.
OR
2. Comey has seen something on the Weiner laptop that shows Hillary Clinton has been lying her tits off. Under oath.
Or, as was rumoured at the weekend.
3. Comey was facing a mutiny from inside his own organisation about the new developments, and would have faced resignations under him if he hadn't said what he did on Friday.
Not sure if anyone has posted this but the BBC are reporting that the FBI has unexpectedly released 129 pages of documents relating to a 2001 investigation into Bill Clinton's pardon of Marc Rich. Clinton's campaign not happy. FBI apparently not responding to BBC's request for a comment.
It's a FOIA request, well timed by whoever FOiA'd it.
What's weird is the FBI account that is tweeting the info.
I get the impression that there are a significant number of FBI agents who believe Clinton is a criminal. Apparently the resignation letters were piling up on Comey's desk and senior colleagues were refusing to speak to him over Clinton getting let off. There were also a bunch of FBI field offices who wanted to investigate the Clinton Foundation but were blocked by the DOJ.
I have no special insight into Comey and the FBI re-opening their case on Hillary Clinton.
But I have to ask myself this: which is more likely?
1. Comey has gone into bat for Donald Trump, being overtly political to help save a sleazebag's Presidential bid that was flailing - at risk of huge personal shit being flung at him for intervening, and possibly being fired by the President for his pains.
OR
2. Comey has seen something on the Weiner laptop that shows Hillary Clinton has been lying her tits off. Under oath.
Or, as was rumoured at the weekend.
3. Comey was facing a mutiny from inside his own organisation about the new developments, and would have faced resignations under him if he hadn't said what he did on Friday.
If Clinton wins, Comey is finished so he might as well dig up all the dirt he can on her from FBI files - particularly if he has the backing of many of his agents - to reduce her chance of winning. Totally rational behaviour.
Joey Essex in the US doing a documentary on the election on ITV2 now for some cutting analysis
Deary me...not joey Essex doing politics...the fact you are watching itv2!
Easy watching while doing the dinner! Though I did read the article on 'globalism and nationalism' SeanT posted earlier just before so am giving my brain an hour off
I have no special insight into Comey and the FBI re-opening their case on Hillary Clinton.
But I have to ask myself this: which is more likely?
1. Comey has gone into bat for Donald Trump, being overtly political to help save a sleazebag's Presidential bid that was flailing - at risk of huge personal shit being flung at him for intervening, and possibly being fired by the President for his pains.
OR
2. Comey has seen something on the Weiner laptop that shows Hillary Clinton has been lying her tits off. Under oath.
Or, as was rumoured at the weekend.
3. Comey was facing a mutiny from inside his own organisation about the new developments, and would have faced resignations under him if he hadn't said what he did on Friday.
3 is a subset of 2. These FBI agents aren't just threatening resign to have time off to stump for Trump.
And yes, Mark Senior, I do believe that Comey has personally seen content from the Weiner e-mails. Nothing in his past CV suggest he would be reckless enough to wade into the 2016 US Presidential Election on the back of some report from an underling down the food chain.
Just did some digging, that isn't the whole video and it's actually a bit different to how that looks. Matthews is actually criticizing Trump for not running the campaign like he started. I'd agree, it is almost like Trump deliberately threw the campaign. If he went half as strong on this as Matthews just did he'd win.
Comments
3. Comey was facing a mutiny from inside his own organisation about the new developments, and would have faced resignations under him if he hadn't said what he did on Friday.
And yes, Mark Senior, I do believe that Comey has personally seen content from the Weiner e-mails. Nothing in his past CV suggest he would be reckless enough to wade into the 2016 US Presidential Election on the back of some report from an underling down the food chain.
And per 538 - if Clinton wins Nevada, she has a 91% chance of winning overall.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/?ex_cid=2016-forecast
new thread
https://twitter.com/hardball/status/791795272254750720?ref_src=twsrc^tfw