"The Democratic presidential nominee and her allies in a dozen battleground states have more than 4,800 people knocking on doors, making phone calls and otherwise working to support her candidacy."
MY nerve is not even remotely shaken, I stuck some more cash on Hillary yesterday (although I have cashed out some state betting). I have long banged the drum for GOTV differential.
"The Democratic presidential nominee and her allies in a dozen battleground states have more than 4,800 people knocking on doors, making phone calls and otherwise working to support her candidacy."
Sounds like IoS in April 2015. Look at what happened there. Back Trump and spend the winnings on going on holiday. Time it for when the nuclear war starts.
The interesting aspect is that unlike 2015, the GOP down ticket races are largely doing sod all for Trump, they are campaigning for themselves.
"The Democratic presidential nominee and her allies in a dozen battleground states have more than 4,800 people knocking on doors, making phone calls and otherwise working to support her candidacy."
There are some commentators who suspect that the pollsters have overadjusted for their 2015 debacle and that their figures are now flattering the Tories somewhat. ICM - I think - has moved to Online polling in recent months so making meaningful comparisons with earlier periods is far from straight forward.
Which commentators are these and what is their track record for accuracy?
"The Democratic presidential nominee and her allies in a dozen battleground states have more than 4,800 people knocking on doors, making phone calls and otherwise working to support her candidacy."
Sounds like IoS in April 2015. Look at what happened there. Back Trump and spend the winnings on going on holiday. Time it for when the nuclear war starts.
The interesting aspect is that unlike 2015, the GOP down ticket races are largely doing sod all for Trump, they are campaigning for themselves.
That's what makes me think Trump will not do it.
When Alistair pointed out that the polls have a very tough LV filter based only on past vote I got worried. It was that kind of polling which missed the Leave vote over here. If there is a grassroots surge of blue collar workers voting for the first time in 10-20 years then they won't get picked up by the polling leaving the door open for a shock victory in the rust belt. Oddly enough it was including unlikely voters in our 2015 polls which gave us the wrong numbers and set up one of the biggest shocks of UK politics.
"The Democratic presidential nominee and her allies in a dozen battleground states have more than 4,800 people knocking on doors, making phone calls and otherwise working to support her candidacy."
Sounds like IoS in April 2015. Look at what happened there. Back Trump and spend the winnings on going on holiday. Time it for when the nuclear war starts.
The interesting aspect is that unlike 2015, the GOP down ticket races are largely doing sod all for Trump, they are campaigning for themselves.
That's what makes me think Trump will not do it.
Having been got out to vote for the down ticket candidates how many of them will abstain from the Presidential or back Hillary? Not many.
The independents and wavering Republicans are breaking for Trump and his core vote is more fired up than Clinton's. Ground game can't make up for that.
They seem to be doing a great deal of polling in the US right now .... perhaps they've deployed their top guns over there. While political polling probably isn't that profitable per se, it doesn't half provide them with corporate name familiarity going forward.
Extra bit - I think this is my 5,000th post on Vanilla!
"The Democratic presidential nominee and her allies in a dozen battleground states have more than 4,800 people knocking on doors, making phone calls and otherwise working to support her candidacy."
That doesn't sound a lot, Leave had 30,000 and Remain 40,000.
This is the paid staff. 1000s of volunteers as well no doubt.
Now that is a foreign aspect to the election - the staggering number of people who have jobs surrounding the campaign. In this country I know precisely noone who has ever been PAID to door knock for a party.
Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:
Tory 470 SNP 50 Lab 40 Lib 10 UKIP 10 Others 20
Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.
Labour only need 12-13% of votes nationally to win 50 seats, so the chances of Labour not being the second-largest party are virtually nil.
I was laughing yesterday at the Orgreave decision.
Burnham nearly wet his pants live on TV, brilliant.
I very rarely see any television during the day but happened to see that yesterday. What an absolute chump. I don't know how anybody takes him seriously.
If "anybody" means "anybody who went to private boarding school", they don't.
Never fear. Blighty keeps a fortnight's gas stocks in preparation for a Russian cut-off, and Zil lanes can be opened up from the City to Heathrow.
I don't watch TV, but I heard some Tory or other on the radio answering questions about Orgreave. All he could say, over and over again, was that some policemen got injured. He was full of class hatred. No surprise. Just saying. And thick as two short planks. Injuries to police officers don't make an argument for not having an inquiry. Nor does the repeatedly parroted fact that unlike at Hillsborough, there weren't scores of deaths. But who listens to oiks when they think they're making a case? Just laugh at them when they get angry at being refused.
Don't know why you are going on a rant about class.
It seems to me that the people "making a case" haven't made a case, hence the Home Secretary turning down their request. Labour support for the campaign looks to be nakedly political. And from what I've heard from both sides on the radio there's been some very selective recall of the events.
Personally I'm skeptical of all inquiries into events decades after they have happened.
Except the spin was that there would be an inquiry into Orgreave; then suddenly there wasn't. Speaking of 1980s Tory ministers, is the dead dog story a dead cat tactic?
So who else has taken next Tuesday/Wednesday off work?
I remember someone not a million miles from here being forced to cancel his booked holiday to the US to undertake ultra urgent contingency planning for Brexit, since when we've heard absolutely nothing further ..... funny that. The words "Drama" and "Queen" spring to mind, no offence meant.
"The Democratic presidential nominee and her allies in a dozen battleground states have more than 4,800 people knocking on doors, making phone calls and otherwise working to support her candidacy."
That doesn't sound a lot, Leave had 30,000 and Remain 40,000.
This is the paid staff. 1000s of volunteers as well no doubt.
Now that is a foreign aspect to the election - the staggering number of people who have jobs surrounding the campaign. In this country I know precisely noone who has ever been PAID to door knock for a party.
Clinton has little choice, she doesn't have the enthusiasm for people to pay for thr privilege of knocking doors for her. Her online shilling organisation (Correct The Record) has huge funding because people were campaigning online for free for Bernie and now Donald.
There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.
I would reduce Lab polling ratings by at least 2% and increase LDs by the same. Mainly due to the weighting adjustments based on GE2015 pre-Corbyn as Leader.
I would knock 10% off the Conservative poll figures and it would still be higher than they actually achieve in real elections
When are you going to learn, no one gives a shit about the local bin collection. They definitely don't care about local by elections.
Conservatives don't seem to care about parliamentary by elections either , strange though how they did when Cameron was their leader - you know the chap you stabbed in the back .
So who else has taken next Tuesday/Wednesday off work?
I remember someone not a million miles from here being forced to cancel his booked holiday to the US to undertake ultra urgent contingency planning for Brexit, since when we've heard absolutely nothing further ..... funny that. The words "Drama" and "Queen" spring to mind, no offence meant.
Bloody hell Peter, I've been working on delivering on our Brexit plan pretty much exclusively since the early hours of June 24th.
I've been posting about it on here since then. My regular visits to France, and the occasional trips to Berlin.
We're assuming the worst but hoping for the best.
Like most we were expecting article 50 to be triggered this year and an outline of the plan, but nothing yet so far.
So who else has taken next Tuesday/Wednesday off work?
I have! Might be able to get a fat payoff if its a Leave style night, and I missed most of that in Greece with rubbish internet.
Fortunately I'm largely all green, but I might need to change course to protect investment.
I think my most optimal result is a narrow Clinton victory in the popular vote and a blowout in the electoral college.
I was all green, but I've now backed Trump to the extent that of Clinton wins I'll end up breaking even on the main race. The 6/1 on Clinton ECVs 270-299 was too good to pass up so a narrow victory for Clinton would still leave me marginally better off.
A Trump victory will pay out enough for a two week trip to Fiji.
There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.
I would reduce Lab polling ratings by at least 2% and increase LDs by the same. Mainly due to the weighting adjustments based on GE2015 pre-Corbyn as Leader.
I would knock 10% off the Conservative poll figures and it would still be higher than they actually achieve in real elections
When are you going to learn, no one gives a shit about the local bin collection. They definitely don't care about local by elections.
Conservatives don't seem to care about parliamentary by elections either , strange though how they did when Cameron was their leader - you know the chap you stabbed in the back .
We do care about Parliamentary by elections.
We've got a 100% record in the ones we've defended this Parliament.
That's more complicated, because Bayrou will probably stand if Sarkozy is the LR candidate.
Yes the results I posted downthread are Sarkozy & Bayrou
Ah ha, didn't see that. As an aside, it looks like Macron will sit it out if Juppe is the LR candidate...
what are you basing that on?
(Clearly a more difficult decision than Sarkozy)
I heard it from a very well connected German politician. Macron, one would assume, becomes PM under Juppe in that scenario.
Though would enable Le Pen to portray Juppe as leading an establishment stitch-up in round 2
That's irrelevent. Le Pen, and the FN, get virtually no transfer votes against Juppe or Macron or Bayrou.
If her opponent was Sarkozy, Hollande or Melechon then things might be different, but against Juppe, she goes up just 1-2% (from 28% to 30%) between the first and second rounds.
There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.
I would reduce Lab polling ratings by at least 2% and increase LDs by the same. Mainly due to the weighting adjustments based on GE2015 pre-Corbyn as Leader.
I would knock 10% off the Conservative poll figures and it would still be higher than they actually achieve in real elections
When are you going to learn, no one gives a shit about the local bin collection. They definitely don't care about local by elections.
Conservatives don't seem to care about parliamentary by elections either , strange though how they did when Cameron was their leader - you know the chap you stabbed in the back .
Were you asleep through the Witney campaign? Richmond is a scenario where the PM knows that Zac will vote with the government on everything except Heathrow vs letting rhe Lib Dems in through the middle. Maybe that's why you're so bitter, the PM has outmanoeuvred your idiot leader who has set expectations on Richmond so high that anything less than victory will be a failure.
"The Democratic presidential nominee and her allies in a dozen battleground states have more than 4,800 people knocking on doors, making phone calls and otherwise working to support her candidacy."
Sounds like IoS in April 2015. Look at what happened there. Back Trump and spend the winnings on going on holiday. Time it for when the nuclear war starts.
The interesting aspect is that unlike 2015, the GOP down ticket races are largely doing sod all for Trump, they are campaigning for themselves.
That's what makes me think Trump will not do it.
When Alistair pointed out that the polls have a very tough LV filter based only on past vote I got worried. It was that kind of polling which missed the Leave vote over here. If there is a grassroots surge of blue collar workers voting for the first time in 10-20 years then they won't get picked up by the polling leaving the door open for a shock victory in the rust belt. Oddly enough it was including unlikely voters in our 2015 polls which gave us the wrong numbers and set up one of the biggest shocks of UK politics.
There is some evidence of that in the Ohio Coalfields- some of the counties are up 30% on early voting I recall seeing.
So who else has taken next Tuesday/Wednesday off work?
I remember someone not a million miles from here being forced to cancel his booked holiday to the US to undertake ultra urgent contingency planning for Brexit, since when we've heard absolutely nothing further ..... funny that. The words "Drama" and "Queen" spring to mind, no offence meant.
Bloody hell Peter, I've been working on delivering on our Brexit plan pretty much exclusively since the early hours of June 24th.
I've been posting about it on here since then. My regular visits to France, and the occasional trips to Berlin.
We're assuming the worst but hoping for the best.
Like most we were expecting article 50 to be triggered this year and an outline of the plan, but nothing yet so far.
That being the case I apologise .... I've clearly missed any number of your related posts.
There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.
I would reduce Lab polling ratings by at least 2% and increase LDs by the same. Mainly due to the weighting adjustments based on GE2015 pre-Corbyn as Leader.
I would knock 10% off the Conservative poll figures and it would still be higher than they actually achieve in real elections
When are you going to learn, no one gives a shit about the local bin collection. They definitely don't care about local by elections.
Conservatives don't seem to care about parliamentary by elections either , strange though how they did when Cameron was their leader - you know the chap you stabbed in the back .
Were you asleep through the Witney campaign? Richmond is a scenario where the PM knows that Zac will vote with the government on everything except Heathrow vs letting rhe Lib Dems in through the middle. Maybe that's why you're so bitter, the PM has outmanoeuvred your idiot leader who has set expectations on Richmond so high that anything less than victory will be a failure.
Not only was I not asleep through the Witney campaign , I forecast on here exactly the fall in the Conservative vote share from 60% at GE 2015 to 45% . Strange how you Conservatives were happy acclaiming council by election gains when you were making them when stabbed in the back Cameron was leader but now dismiss the losses under May .
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
But what will happen when the Tories scrap the their Triple Lock promise on over-provided state pensions as now prescribed by IDS. This one factor alone was probably sufficient to result in their albeit wafer thin majority.
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
But what will happen when the Tories scrap the their Triple Lock promise on over-provided state pensions as now prescribed by IDS. This one factor alone was probably sufficient to result in their albeit wafer thin majority.
The abolition of the triple lock will be contain a grandfather/grandmother clause.
It wasn't that the triple lock that won the Tories a majority, it was the forced choice of Dave as PM or Ed Miliband as PM propped up by the SNP.
Without that I reckon the Tories would have been the largest party in a hung parliament.
Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:
Tory 470 SNP 50 Lab 40 Lib 10 UKIP 10 Others 20
Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.
R.e SNP - There's a precedent in Canada - after 1993, the governing tories lost all but 2 seats (puts Major 1997 in perspective!) and the official opposition was the Bloc Quebecois. I don't think there was any constitutional issue there, they served a full term as official opposition - and Canada's system is the same as ours.
I think a collapse in the labour vote like that requires another party to gain its place - perhaps that could be split between UKIP and LDs depending on the seat, but highly doubt the tories would be the beneficiaries to such a degree, even with FPTP distorting - voters are used to being tactical and would vote accordingly to prevent such an outcome.
"The Democratic presidential nominee and her allies in a dozen battleground states have more than 4,800 people knocking on doors, making phone calls and otherwise working to support her candidacy."
Sounds like IoS in April 2015. Look at what happened there. Back Trump and spend the winnings on going on holiday. Time it for when the nuclear war starts.
The interesting aspect is that unlike 2015, the GOP down ticket races are largely doing sod all for Trump, they are campaigning for themselves.
That's what makes me think Trump will not do it.
When Alistair pointed out that the polls have a very tough LV filter based only on past vote I got worried. It was that kind of polling which missed the Leave vote over here. If there is a grassroots surge of blue collar workers voting for the first time in 10-20 years then they won't get picked up by the polling leaving the door open for a shock victory in the rust belt. Oddly enough it was including unlikely voters in our 2015 polls which gave us the wrong numbers and set up one of the biggest shocks of UK politics.
Thewaddendum to that is that in general the All Respondent to Likely Voter screen still shifts polls in favour of the Republicans last I checked.
There was 1 poll a couple of months ago where it went from a 14 point Clinton Lead from All Respondents to and 8 point Hilary Lead for Registered voters to a 4 point lead amongst Likely Voters.
There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.
The Witney by election provided clear evidence that Labour is well able to repel the LibDems with 'You cannot trust them not to put the Tories in'.
No it didn't! Labour's vote share was not too bad (2% on GE IIRC) but in terms of actual votes given the turnout, it was about half their GE vote. Lib Dems went from 4th to 2nd with a swing of almost 20% and several times as many actual votes. On top of that, since May Labour have lost council seats to the Lib Dems, some with equally large swings. The Lib Dems have held every seat we've defended.
And you think Labour are able to repel the Lib Dems? Really?
But what will happen when the Tories scrap the their Triple Lock promise on over-provided state pensions as now prescribed by IDS. This one factor alone was probably sufficient to result in their albeit wafer thin majority.
The abolition of the triple lock will be contain a grandfather/grandmother clause.
It wasn't that the triple lock that won the Tories a majority, it was the forced choice of Dave as PM or Ed Miliband as PM propped up by the SNP.
Without that I reckon the Tories would have been the largest party in a hung parliament.
Yes, with Labour, SNP and LibDems forming a coalition government.
"Do you think the result would have been the same if he'd mocked the Archbishop of Canterbury, or even the Pope?"
I think we know the answer to that.
Also from the BBC .... "England, Scotland and Wales are in talks with football's world governing body about the issue of poppies on players' shirts to mark Armistice Day.
England play Scotland in a World Cup qualifier at Wembley on 11 November, the day when the United Kingdom traditionally remembers its war dead.
Wales face Serbia at the Cardiff City Stadium the following evening.
Fifa bans political, religious or commercial messages on shirts and has the power to deduct points from teams.
The football associations of England, Scotland and Wales want to know what the potential punishments could be should they decide to flout the rules.
Fifa has not indicated whether a points penalty would be under consideration."
So is a poppy political? Is it religious? Is it commercial?
Trump's doing three rallies in Florida tomorrow and Clinton has some celebrity fuelled events coming up in the next few days. Both campaigns seem to be treating it as a must win.
No idea why the pollsters are still overstating Labour.. you ask any true centre Labour voter if they would actually vote Labour... they think Corbyn is bonkers and won't vote Labour whilsat he is leader.
But what will happen when the Tories scrap the their Triple Lock promise on over-provided state pensions as now prescribed by IDS. This one factor alone was probably sufficient to result in their albeit wafer thin majority.
All the Tories need to do is to tell BT and other broadband co's they cannot charge the same for a lesser service. It would be hugely popular. If you get 3mb or less b/band speed then fee is £5 a month.. That would win/keep zillions of votes.
So who else has taken next Tuesday/Wednesday off work?
I have! Might be able to get a fat payoff if its a Leave style night, and I missed most of that in Greece with rubbish internet.
Fortunately I'm largely all green, but I might need to change course to protect investment.
I think my most optimal result is a narrow Clinton victory in the popular vote and a blowout in the electoral college.
I was all green, but I've now backed Trump to the extent that of Clinton wins I'll end up breaking even on the main race. The 6/1 on Clinton ECVs 270-299 was too good to pass up so a narrow victory for Clinton would still leave me marginally better off.
A Trump victory will pay out enough for a two week trip to Fiji.
I'm now just green on both Clinton and Trump, very green on Kaine, Pence and McMullin, and very red if Michelle gets it, though I love her dearly.
"Do you think the result would have been the same if he'd mocked the Archbishop of Canterbury, or even the Pope?"
On Saturday - weather permitting - I will be attending an event at which an effigy of Pope Paul V will be burnt. And quite rightly, no one gets upset about that.
"Do you think the result would have been the same if he'd mocked the Archbishop of Canterbury, or even the Pope?"
On Saturday - weather permitting - I will be attending an event at which an effigy of Pope Paul V will be burnt. And quite rightly, no one gets upset about that.
It is interesting that in the US the third party vote (all alternatives combined) remains so stubbornly low. Yet the major parties couldn't have done more to repel voters if they had tried.
In the UK, even when either the Tories or Labour have been relatively popular, between 25-30% of voters have plumped for an alternative, despite knowing that in the vast majority of cases their vote will be wasted. Yet America has the same voting system and it drives almost everyone to vote Rep or Dem even when their candidates are as poor as the current two?
"Do you think the result would have been the same if he'd mocked the Archbishop of Canterbury, or even the Pope?"
On Saturday - weather permitting - I will be attending an event at which an effigy of Pope Paul V will be burnt. And quite rightly, no one gets upset about that.
Lewes?
Yep, I'm expecting Trump and, possibly, Clinton to feature.
There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.
The Witney by election provided clear evidence that Labour is well able to repel the LibDems with 'You cannot trust them not to put the Tories in'.
No it didn't! Labour's vote share was not too bad (2% on GE IIRC) but in terms of actual votes given the turnout, it was about half their GE vote. Lib Dems went from 4th to 2nd with a swing of almost 20% and several times as many actual votes. On top of that, since May Labour have lost council seats to the Lib Dems, some with equally large swings. The Lib Dems have held every seat we've defended.
And you think Labour are able to repel the Lib Dems? Really?
But Labour did not put in anything like the effort - indeed they appear to have only seriously campaigned in the final ten days! It was a far cry from how badly Labour were squeezed at Newbury & Christchurch in 1993 - or indeed Berwick and Sutton & Cheam as far back as 1972/73 when the Liberals went from 3rd place to win the seats. As for local by elections, the LibDem vote is still falling in many inner city areas where they have no base . That suggests that underlying support for them remains weak.
46% is the highest I've ever seen Trump. Usually he gets stuck at about 44%. That's definitely worrying.
The most successful political betting strategy.
* Imagine the worse outcome * Double it * Confirm that in your gut you know there is no way in real life this could actually happen.
Back that outcome heavily.
I've been backing Trump for a few days now, wiped out my entire positive position on Clinton. I will break even with a Clinton victory and make enough to pay for my holiday to Fiji if Trump wins. At least I'll be by a beach sometime in February.
"Do you think the result would have been the same if he'd mocked the Archbishop of Canterbury, or even the Pope?"
On Saturday - weather permitting - I will be attending an event at which an effigy of Pope Paul V will be burnt. And quite rightly, no one gets upset about that.
Lewes?
Yep, I'm expecting Trump and, possibly, Clinton to feature.
I keep on meaning to go every year, but never get the opportunity.
No idea why the pollsters are still overstating Labour.. you ask any true centre Labour voter if they would actually vote Labour... they think Corbyn is bonkers and won't vote Labour whilsat he is leader.
There is no evidence to support that in actual elections - indeed Witney implied a national Labour vote of circa 31%.
That's more complicated, because Bayrou will probably stand if Sarkozy is the LR candidate.
Yes the results I posted downthread are Sarkozy & Bayrou
Ah ha, didn't see that. As an aside, it looks like Macron will sit it out if Juppe is the LR candidate...
what are you basing that on?
(Clearly a more difficult decision than Sarkozy)
I heard it from a very well connected German politician. Macron, one would assume, becomes PM under Juppe in that scenario.
Though would enable Le Pen to portray Juppe as leading an establishment stitch-up in round 2
That's irrelevent. Le Pen, and the FN, get virtually no transfer votes against Juppe or Macron or Bayrou.
If her opponent was Sarkozy, Hollande or Melechon then things might be different, but against Juppe, she goes up just 1-2% (from 28% to 30%) between the first and second rounds.
I don't think she will get transfers, but there will be a big increase in overall voters for her - in the regional elections in December, the FN went from 6mil in first round to 6.8mil in second, and that was just a regional. Her voters will turn out in the second round once the campaign really comes to a head.
She'll lose the vote but I'm not convinced it will be as close as it seems now against Juppe - she's objectively a better candidate than Trump is for example (less character flaws, more serious candidate, more charismatic, not someone you think will fire a nuke because of a rude tweet). Plus there are definitely shy FNers, I know a few!
Comments
(Clearly a more difficult decision than Sarkozy)
Sugar and caffeine for wednesday.
That's what makes me think Trump will not do it.
There are some commentators who suspect that the pollsters have overadjusted for their 2015 debacle and that their figures are now flattering the Tories somewhat. ICM - I think - has moved to Online polling in recent months so making meaningful comparisons with earlier periods is far from straight forward.
Which commentators are these and what is their track record for accuracy?
Paid Staff 5 to 1 advantage for Clinton.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/ground-game-democrats-started-fall-5-1-paid-staff-advantage-n661656
The independents and wavering Republicans are breaking for Trump and his core vote is more fired up than Clinton's. Ground game can't make up for that.
Although I haven't much money staked.
I think my most optimal result is a narrow Clinton victory in the popular vote and a blowout in the electoral college.
Dr. Michael Bitzer – @BowTiePolitics
Among all NC absentee ballots: white voters up 15% over 2012 same day totals, while black voters down 15% http://www.OldNorthStatePolitics.com #ncpol
I've been posting about it on here since then. My regular visits to France, and the occasional trips to Berlin.
We're assuming the worst but hoping for the best.
Like most we were expecting article 50 to be triggered this year and an outline of the plan, but nothing yet so far.
A Trump victory will pay out enough for a two week trip to Fiji.
Scott Ruesterholz – @Read_N_Learn
FL early vote much whiter, African-American share much lower. Would seem to bode well for Trump. FL seems like an easier climb than NC https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/793278422415872000 …
We've got a 100% record in the ones we've defended this Parliament.
If her opponent was Sarkozy, Hollande or Melechon then things might be different, but against Juppe, she goes up just 1-2% (from 28% to 30%) between the first and second rounds.
Good book title.
https://twitter.com/DanScavino/status/793415328042803201
http://openeurope.org.uk/daily-shakeup/cameron-government-would-promptly-trigger-article-50-in-the-event-of-a-leave-vote/
Age 75+ split in latest ICM poll
CON 74%
LAB 6%
LD 10%
UKIP 4%
I resign oh and I triggered article 50 35 minutes ago, your problem Boris and Gove.
Betting post, 2% return in a week
Paddy Power are 1-50 on Washington DC for the Democrats
The true odds are something like 1-10,000 I'd have thought.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/gymnastics/37832754
Louis Smith: British Gymnastics bans four-time Olympic medallist over video in which he appeared to mock Islam
It wasn't that the triple lock that won the Tories a majority, it was the forced choice of Dave as PM or Ed Miliband as PM propped up by the SNP.
Without that I reckon the Tories would have been the largest party in a hung parliament.
I think a collapse in the labour vote like that requires another party to gain its place - perhaps that could be split between UKIP and LDs depending on the seat, but highly doubt the tories would be the beneficiaries to such a degree, even with FPTP distorting - voters are used to being tactical and would vote accordingly to prevent such an outcome.
I'd have preffered £900 (or more) but still
https://twitter.com/brexittruths/status/793452052378689536
There was 1 poll a couple of months ago where it went from a 14 point Clinton Lead from All Respondents to and 8 point Hilary Lead for Registered voters to a 4 point lead amongst Likely Voters.
On top of that, since May Labour have lost council seats to the Lib Dems, some with equally large swings. The Lib Dems have held every seat we've defended.
And you think Labour are able to repel the Lib Dems? Really?
I think we know the answer to that.
Also from the BBC .... "England, Scotland and Wales are in talks with football's world governing body about the issue of poppies on players' shirts to mark Armistice Day.
England play Scotland in a World Cup qualifier at Wembley on 11 November, the day when the United Kingdom traditionally remembers its war dead.
Wales face Serbia at the Cardiff City Stadium the following evening.
Fifa bans political, religious or commercial messages on shirts and has the power to deduct points from teams.
The football associations of England, Scotland and Wales want to know what the potential punishments could be should they decide to flout the rules.
Fifa has not indicated whether a points penalty would be under consideration."
So is a poppy political? Is it religious? Is it commercial?
Why just tell them to fuck off?
In the UK, even when either the Tories or Labour have been relatively popular, between 25-30% of voters have plumped for an alternative, despite knowing that in the vast majority of cases their vote will be wasted. Yet America has the same voting system and it drives almost everyone to vote Rep or Dem even when their candidates are as poor as the current two?
As for local by elections, the LibDem vote is still falling in many inner city areas where they have no base . That suggests that underlying support for them remains weak.
Dark web departure: fake train tickets go on sale alongside AK-47s
Forged rail tickets are now being sold as well as drugs and passports, in an explosion of goods on offer from dark web retail services
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/shortcuts/2016/nov/01/dark-web-fake-train-tickets-on-sale?CMP=twt_gu
One year soon
Clinton ...... 308 (-7)
Trump ....... 228 (+6)
Clinton 42 .. Trump 41
https://www.elon.edu/e/elon-poll/poll-archive/110116
She'll lose the vote but I'm not convinced it will be as close as it seems now against Juppe - she's objectively a better candidate than Trump is for example (less character flaws, more serious candidate, more charismatic, not someone you think will fire a nuke because of a rude tweet). Plus there are definitely shy FNers, I know a few!