There is a reason that the Tories have thrown money at pensioners and not at the 18s to 24s. They vote.
I know this is a favourite theme of yours, but they really haven't 'thown money at pensioners'. Less so than Gordon Brown, certainly. The only real example is the triple lock (originally a LibDem policy, you seem to have forgotten), which is actually quite small in the overall scheme of things, even if in the long term it would become significant. On the other side, they've changed inflation linking to make it much worse for pensioners, slashed what used to be a hugely-favourable wheeze for those pensioners sufficiently well-off to defer their pensions, and slashed the maximum pension contributions which has a big effect on those coming up to retirement age. Plus the low interest rates are a big subsidy to younger people at the expense of pensioners, not to mention schemes like Help-to-Buy.
SPOTY looks like Andy Murray vs Ali Brownlee judging by Betfair.
Trott, Whitlock & Skelton the live outsiders.
If I was a proper gambler I'd have laid Andy Murray rather than backing Laura. Skelton is a pain because he's likely to be fishing in the same pond as Trott, but you never know. I don't get the Brownlee thing. To me it looked like cheating!
I'm +49.01 Brownlee, +0.01 Murray +26.32 Field -68.30 Mo Farah & Anthony Joshua
Last year Sinfield and Hill got 2nd and 3rd.
I think Brownlee wins on the strength of
a) Yorkshire voting b) Dragging his brother across the line will touch parts Murray can't.
My reason for backing Laura is she is the only woman in with a shout. It's 10 years since a woman won so I'm hoping that the BBC nudge voters in her direction. I'm on each way so I won't be too upset if she only makes the top 3.
I think Brownlee's real competition is from the cycling. Trott could get cycling and women's votes. Some Yorkshire votes will go the way of Nicola Adams, but I agree many will go to the Brownlees (NB circa 5m people in Yorkshire, for those wondering).
Mr. 86, does the BBC decide the shortlist? If so, I agree he won't make it.
The EU harnesses two forces - the liberal globalist elite (Davos man), AND the genuine European Federalists, who want to build a superpower. That's why it is so durable for all its flaws.
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.
I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?
I am a pensioner and I know a lot of other pensioners. I don't know of one who votes because of winter fuel payments, bus passes, TV Licences or even the triple lock. Every pensioner that I know is far more concerned about the future of their children/grandchildren than they are about themselves. I suspect they will all vote accordingly.
I believe that the vast majority of pensioners will continue to vote for whichever party they have tended to support in their earlier years.Few are likely to switch their votes in their mid-70s!
That is rather a different argument to the one you advanced up-thread, and one for which I am am not sure that there is any evidence.
There is such evidence -though I cannot immediately reference you for that point. David Butler , Anthony King et al certainly could do so!
500 paid canvassers working in Florida for the Center for Community Change Action. The progressive group has spent the past four months targeting a very specific universe of 384,000 Florida Latinos.
I think Brownlee's real competition is from the cycling. Trott could get cycling and women's votes. Some Yorkshire votes will go the way of Nicola Adams, but I agree many will go to the Brownlees (NB circa 5m people in Yorkshire, for those wondering).
Mr. 86, does the BBC decide the shortlist? If so, I agree he won't make it.
Joshua was a nice lay when his fight with Klitschko got (Briefly) announced, went sub 10s.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
Brexit is a disconnection. Maybe justified, in the view of some, because of how the EU operates. But a disconnection nevertheless and a major one too. I struggle to think of ANYTHING that we can do globally, rather than parochially, after Brexit, that we weren't able to do before, and which will make a meaningful difference.
I think Brownlee's real competition is from the cycling. Trott could get cycling and women's votes. Some Yorkshire votes will go the way of Nicola Adams, but I agree many will go to the Brownlees (NB circa 5m people in Yorkshire, for those wondering).
Mr. 86, does the BBC decide the shortlist? If so, I agree he won't make it.
A panel of journalists decides (I think). In 2011 there was controversy over the shortlist being all male.
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.
I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?
There is a reason that the Tories have thrown money at pensioners and not at the 18s to 24s. They vote.
Indeed - and they are more likely to vote Tory than younger people. But not 74% of them!
I find I'm a "drawbridge up" type of person rather than a "drawbridge down". I'm not afraid of "The Other".
But I have a "constrained" rather than "unconstrained" mind-set recognising how thin the veneer of civilised behaviour is, and the value of traditions, customs, laws etc in constraining behaviour.
I have a distrust of nationalism (or patriotism - my country right or wrong) for the same reason I distrust the behaviour of football supporters or religious ideologues. The passion of crowds disturbs me. It is like an uncontrollable animal. Look at the crowds who turn up for Trump (or Sanders or Corbyn or Le Pen).
EDIT So I am an open-minded internationalist who believes in the rule of law and distrusts demagogues - which is what makes me a LibDem.
It is a fascinating essay, but as someone who certainly veers towards internationalism I think it lacks a bit of nuance, certainly with regards to my side of the fence. Take the far left and the hundreds of thousands, maybe even millions, of Brits who support Jeremy Corbyn. What are they? Ostensibly, you'd call them internationalists, but they certainly don't believe everyone is good. In fact, they are consumed by hate - for America, for Israel, for the West generally, for "Tories", and so on. In fact, it is probably hatred that defines them. Their world view is almost nothing like the world view that a wishy-washy centre-lefty like me possesses. But neither is anything close to being raise the drawbridge.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
Brexit is a disconnection. Maybe justified, in the view of some, because of how the EU operates. But a disconnection nevertheless and a major one too. I struggle to think of ANYTHING that we can do globally, rather than parochially, after Brexit, that we weren't able to do before, and which will make a meaningful difference.
Mr Dancer - the other worry with the cyclists is that they split the vote. Trott, Kenny and Froome will all be shortlisted. The latter really should be in with a shout, but his lack of Britishness and the cheating by questionable behaviour of another Tour winner might hurt his chances.
The EU harnesses two forces - the liberal globalist elite (Davos man), AND the genuine European Federalists, who want to build a superpower. That's why it is so durable for all its flaws.
A lot of the motivation is jealousy of US power.
Yes, especially in France.
And the Commission. In my experience that is the primary motivating force there.
In terms of seeking out value for money, Laddies' "Clinton Firewall Finder" may be worth a look. This is based on finding the first State to vote for Clinton, working down from the top of the bookie's list as follows:
Texas 12/1 Montana 16/1 Georgia 7/1 Arizona 9/4 Iowa 6/1 Ohio 12/1 North Carolina 9/2 Florida 25/1 etc, etc.
Of the above 8 states, the first six, i.e. Texas through to Ohio, are all coloured Red or Pink on 538's map and therefore expected to vote for Trump. Assuming they all do so, next on the list comes North Carolina coloured light blue, therefore leaning towards Clinton. If however she were to lose this state but win Florida, also rated a light blue by 538.com, then the 25/1 bet is landed! Yes it's something of a longshot, but by no means impossible and it could provide a bit of excitement on the night!
Voters see how powerful immigration has become as an instrument of policy in the 21st century. The people who control it can alter countries and continents quickly and in their favour. Its now more powerful than all the armies and nuclear weapons out there.
Left liberals saw this early and took the levers of this instrument for themselves. Now, ordinary voters want it.
That is what drove Brexit. That is what is driving Trump.
Mr. 86, I think Trott and Kenny both help and hinder one another. The golden couple angle will get them more publicity but also split the vote. I'd guess more will go for Trott, though, and cycling as a history of getting its vote out.
The EU harnesses two forces - the liberal globalist elite (Davos man), AND the genuine European Federalists, who want to build a superpower. That's why it is so durable for all its flaws.
A lot of the motivation is jealousy of US power.
but there is nothing "super" about the EU. Just hand wringers!
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
.... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
Not all countries are in the EU!
I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
.... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
Not all countries are in the EU!
I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.
Mr. 86, I think Trott and Kenny both help and hinder one another. The golden couple angle will get them more publicity but also split the vote. I'd guess more will go for Trott, though, and cycling as a history of getting its vote out.
Point of order, Mr. Dancer - they are now Mr. and Mrs. Kenny.
500 paid canvassers working in Florida for the Center for Community Change Action. The progressive group has spent the past four months targeting a very specific universe of 384,000 Florida Latinos.
Mr. 86, I think Trott and Kenny both help and hinder one another. The golden couple angle will get them more publicity but also split the vote. I'd guess more will go for Trott, though, and cycling as a history of getting its vote out.
Point of order, Mr. Dancer - they are now Mr. and Mrs. Kenny.
How many people are going to vote for the totally unknown Laura Kenny....
500 paid canvassers working in Florida for the Center for Community Change Action. The progressive group has spent the past four months targeting a very specific universe of 384,000 Florida Latinos.
Voters see how powerful immigration has become as an instrument of policy in the 21st century. The people who control it can alter countries and continents quickly and in their favour. Its now more powerful than all the armies and nuclear weapons out there.
Left liberals saw this early and took the levers of this instrument for themselves. Now, ordinary voters want it.
That is what drove Brexit. That is what is driving Trump.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
.... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
Not all countries are in the EU!
I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.
Why might leaving the EU be anti-immigration?
It doesn't have to be. But I'm told that a lot, perhaps a majority, of leavers want to leave the EU so we can take back control of our borders and reduce net immigration to under 100,000. Or is immigration not such a big deal?
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
.... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
Not all countries are in the EU!
I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.
For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.
In terms of seeking out value for money, Laddies' "Clinton Firewall Finder" may be worth a look. This is based on finding the first State to vote for Clinton, working down from the top of the bookie's list as follows:
Texas 12/1 Montana 16/1 Georgia 7/1 Arizona 9/4 Iowa 6/1 Ohio 12/1 North Carolina 9/2 Florida 25/1 etc, etc.
Of the above 8 states, the first six, i.e. Texas through to Ohio, are all coloured Red or Pink on 538's map and therefore expected to vote for Trump. Assuming they all do so, next on the list comes North Carolina coloured light blue, therefore leaning towards Clinton. If however she were to lose this state but win Florida, also rated a light blue by 538.com, then the 25/1 bet is landed! Yes it's something of a longshot, but by no means impossible and it could provide a bit of excitement on the night!
Do your own research.
That's a brilliant bet. Pity I was limited to tuppence ha'pennny. (Also NV at 16/1 is a good defensive bet for for those of us who have a position tilted towards Hillary doing quite well).
Mr. 86, I think Trott and Kenny both help and hinder one another. The golden couple angle will get them more publicity but also split the vote. I'd guess more will go for Trott, though, and cycling as a history of getting its vote out.
Point of order, Mr. Dancer - they are now Mr. and Mrs. Kenny.
They haven't changed the name of the Laura Trott leisure centre in Cheshunt yet.
Mr. 86, I think Trott and Kenny both help and hinder one another. The golden couple angle will get them more publicity but also split the vote. I'd guess more will go for Trott, though, and cycling as a history of getting its vote out.
Point of order, Mr. Dancer - they are now Mr. and Mrs. Kenny.
They haven't changed the name of the Laura Trott leisure centre in Cheshunt yet.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
.... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
Not all countries are in the EU!
I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.
For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.
EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.
Voters see how powerful immigration has become as an instrument of policy in the 21st century. The people who control it can alter countries and continents quickly and in their favour. Its now more powerful than all the armies and nuclear weapons out there.
Left liberals saw this early and took the levers of this instrument for themselves. Now, ordinary voters want it.
That is what drove Brexit. That is what is driving Trump.
Americans are pro-immigration.
Brits are pro-immigration. Polls show majority support for it. They just want control over the numbers and the "type"
We had immigration decades BEFORE we joined the old EEC, eg. Windrush and East African Asians.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
.... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
Not all countries are in the EU!
I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.
For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.
EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.
If some racist told you you were not European, you'd agree with them. That's your problem.
Voters see how powerful immigration has become as an instrument of policy in the 21st century. The people who control it can alter countries and continents quickly and in their favour. Its now more powerful than all the armies and nuclear weapons out there.
Left liberals saw this early and took the levers of this instrument for themselves. Now, ordinary voters want it.
That is what drove Brexit. That is what is driving Trump.
Americans are pro-immigration.
Brits are pro-immigration. Polls show majority support for it. They just want control over the numbers and the "type"
That is true; in America, though, it is far more part of the national psyche - for obvious reasons.
No worries, Mr. Dancer! But, personally, I feel it a bit "sexist" for a woman to be known by her husband's name, especially if she is well-known in her own right.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
.... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
Not all countries are in the EU!
I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.
For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.
EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.
If some racist told you you were not European, you'd agree with them. That's your problem.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
.... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
Not all countries are in the EU!
I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.
For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.
EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.
So what? Free movement in the EU is not predicated on skin colour or ethnicity, just citizenship.
Bret Baiar In newest @wikileaks: Podesta tells Mills (on 3/2/15!) "we are going to have to dump all those emails so better to do so sooner than later"
And I've seen loads of tweets saying Mrs Obama has deleted all mentions of Hillary from her Twitter account and FLOTUS one. I can't check with my phone. Is this true?
In terms of seeking out value for money, Laddies' "Clinton Firewall Finder" may be worth a look. This is based on finding the first State to vote for Clinton, working down from the top of the bookie's list as follows:
Texas 12/1 Montana 16/1 Georgia 7/1 Arizona 9/4 Iowa 6/1 Ohio 12/1 North Carolina 9/2 Florida 25/1 etc, etc.
Of the above 8 states, the first six, i.e. Texas through to Ohio, are all coloured Red or Pink on 538's map and therefore expected to vote for Trump. Assuming they all do so, next on the list comes North Carolina coloured light blue, therefore leaning towards Clinton. If however she were to lose this state but win Florida, also rated a light blue by 538.com, then the 25/1 bet is landed! Yes it's something of a longshot, but by no means impossible and it could provide a bit of excitement on the night!
Do your own research.
That's a brilliant bet. Pity I was limited to tuppence ha'pennny. (Also NV at 16/1 is a good defensive bet for for those of us who have a position tilted towards Hillary doing quite well).
According to Nate's model this bet should be 22.2 (North Carolina is likely to go the same way).
Nevertheless with AA turnout down and hispanic up, the chance is probably higher I'd have thought.
I now have
TX @ 20.0 MT GA AZ IA OH NC FL @ 26.0 NV NH @ 13.0
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
.... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
Not all countries are in the EU!
I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.
For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.
EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.
If some racist told you you were not European, you'd agree with them. That's your problem.
European? Moi?
I is British, thank you very much!
And Britain is European. I'm afraid that's non-negotiable, Brexit or no Brexit.
In terms of seeking out value for money, Laddies' "Clinton Firewall Finder" may be worth a look. This is based on finding the first State to vote for Clinton, working down from the top of the bookie's list as follows:
Texas 12/1 Montana 16/1 Georgia 7/1 Arizona 9/4 Iowa 6/1 Ohio 12/1 North Carolina 9/2 Florida 25/1 etc, etc.
Of the above 8 states, the first six, i.e. Texas through to Ohio, are all coloured Red or Pink on 538's map and therefore expected to vote for Trump. Assuming they all do so, next on the list comes North Carolina coloured light blue, therefore leaning towards Clinton. If however she were to lose this state but win Florida, also rated a light blue by 538.com, then the 25/1 bet is landed! Yes it's something of a longshot, but by no means impossible and it could provide a bit of excitement on the night!
Do your own research.
Peter - thanks for the tip. I'm on for Florida (at 25/1) and Nevada (at 16/1) with reasonable amounts.
In terms of seeking out value for money, Laddies' "Clinton Firewall Finder" may be worth a look. This is based on finding the first State to vote for Clinton, working down from the top of the bookie's list as follows:
Of the above 9 states, the first six, i.e. Texas through to Ohio, are all coloured Red or Pink on 538's map and therefore expected to vote for Trump. Assuming they all do so, next on the list comes North Carolina coloured light blue, therefore leaning towards Clinton. If however she were to lose this state but win Florida, also rated a light blue by 538.com, then the 25/1 bet is landed! Next comes Nevada if Florida also finishes in the red camp. Yes it's something of a longshot, but by no means impossible and it could provide a bit of excitement on the night!
Do your own research.
That's a brilliant bet. Pity I was limited to tuppence ha'pennny. (Also NV at 16/1 is a good defensive bet for for those of us who have a position tilted towards Hillary doing quite well).
Richard - Yes, I liked Nevada too, but was put off when navigating the site last night and in front of my eyes I saw the odds viciously slashed from 20/1 to 16/1 which rather put me off. On reflection, however, this is probably still worth backing as a saver if nothing else.
Bret Baiar In newest @wikileaks: Podesta tells Mills (on 3/2/15!) "we are going to have to dump all those emails so better to do so sooner than later"
And I've seen loads of tweets saying Mrs Obama has deleted all mentions of Hillary from her Twitter account and FLOTUS one. I can't check with my phone. Is this true?
I don't know if she's deleted anything but her twitter feed is remarkably free of anything about Hillary.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
.... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
Not all countries are in the EU!
I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.
Britain wants a lower amount of migration, and they want the best skilled workers from across the world. This is impossible in the EU, which obliges us to favour unemployable Romanians over super-smart Chinese engineers.
As I have mentioned before , what is the definition of skilled and unskilled . Someone argued that it was based on qualifications . A fruit picker from say Bulgaria who can pick fruit 5 times as fast as a typical UK fruit picker is therefore unskilled . A footballer with a degree in sports management is skilled but the top goal scorer in South America with no educational qualifications would be unskilled . What is your definition ?
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
.... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
Not all countries are in the EU!
I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.
For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.
EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.
If some racist told you you were not European, you'd agree with them. That's your problem.
European? Moi?
I is British, thank you very much!
And Britain is European. I'm afraid that's non-negotiable, Brexit or no Brexit.
No amount of goading me is gonna break my Tebbit Chip!
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
.... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
Not all countries are in the EU!
I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.
For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.
EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.
So what? Free movement in the EU is not predicated on skin colour or ethnicity, just citizenship.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
.... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
Not all countries are in the EU!
I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.
For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.
EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.
If some racist told you you were not European, you'd agree with them. That's your problem.
European? Moi?
I is British, thank you very much!
And Britain is European. I'm afraid that's non-negotiable, Brexit or no Brexit.
Whilst Britain is in Europe it is not on the Continent of Europe (which sometimes gets cut off by fog).
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
.... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
Not all countries are in the EU!
I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.
For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.
EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.
If some racist told you you were not European, you'd agree with them. That's your problem.
European? Moi?
I is British, thank you very much!
And Britain is European. I'm afraid that's non-negotiable, Brexit or no Brexit.
No amount of goading me is gonna break my Tebbit Chip!
Well at least the English cricket team will still be there to support after you've finished breaking Britain.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
.... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
Not all countries are in the EU!
I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.
For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.
EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.
So what? Free movement in the EU is not predicated on skin colour or ethnicity, just citizenship.
Bret Baiar In newest @wikileaks: Podesta tells Mills (on 3/2/15!) "we are going to have to dump all those emails so better to do so sooner than later"
And I've seen loads of tweets saying Mrs Obama has deleted all mentions of Hillary from her Twitter account and FLOTUS one. I can't check with my phone. Is this true?
You don't have access to tweets? You must find that rather limiting.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
If only that were true.
It is, sadly, a complete fantasy.
Nope. It is entirely accurate.
My company has moved from doing 1/3 of its business with EU firms to less than 5%, 95% with Uk and USA now - it's where the action is - not France.
Yep. And that matches the official stats as well which has shown a steady drop in trade with the EU whilst trade with the rest of the world and overall trade have both increased. Basically the EU is becoming less and less important as a trading partner.
Now personally I don't think this means we should be putting up unnecessary barriers. And given I want an EFTA type relationship I certainly don't think immigration controls trump trade and other freedoms. But I am certainly glad that at some point in the not too distant future our trade relations with the growing rest of the world market will no longer be controlled and stifled by the EU.
Juat going back to these opinion polls. Discussing these over a cofee with members of other parties particularly some Conservative councillors, everyone agreed that the figures were either misleading or wrong. All agreed that at the last election what 1 -2 million previous Lib Dem voters switched to the Conservatives mainly on a tactical basis, everyone agreed they either have or are returning to their former home, but the polls have not picked this up properly possibly because of weighted polling taking into account the last election. But the voting patterns at elections over the last 6 months seem to more than confirm that. Consensus was the Cons probably at about 37 with the Lib Dems about 14. Again UKIP was thought to be down in single figures 6 -8, and nobody could comprehend the Greens at 5. I think the pollsters need to be challenged by the web site and not followed.
In terms of seeking out value for money, Laddies' "Clinton Firewall Finder" may be worth a look. This is based on finding the first State to vote for Clinton, working down from the top of the bookie's list as follows:
Texas 12/1 Montana 16/1 Georgia 7/1 Arizona 9/4 Iowa 6/1 Ohio 12/1 North Carolina 9/2 Florida 25/1 etc, etc.
Of the above 8 states, the first six, i.e. Texas through to Ohio, are all coloured Red or Pink on 538's map and therefore expected to vote for Trump. Assuming they all do so, next on the list comes North Carolina coloured light blue, therefore leaning towards Clinton. If however she were to lose this state but win Florida, also rated a light blue by 538.com, then the 25/1 bet is landed! Yes it's something of a longshot, but by no means impossible and it could provide a bit of excitement on the night!
Do your own research.
Peter - thanks for the tip. I'm on for Florida (at 25/1) and Nevada (at 16/1) with reasonable amounts.
Good luck with this. Btw I'm on the Barnes side of Putney if that's near you.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
If only that were true.
It is, sadly, a complete fantasy.
Nope. It is entirely accurate.
Continental countries like France are very protectionist whilst the UK has always been a global trading nation which recognises the benefits of free trade. This is one reason for the lack of a cultural fit between the EU and the UK.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
.... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
Not all countries are in the EU!
I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.
For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.
EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.
If some racist told you you were not European, you'd agree with them. That's your problem.
European? Moi?
I is British, thank you very much!
And Britain is European. I'm afraid that's non-negotiable, Brexit or no Brexit.
No amount of goading me is gonna break my Tebbit Chip!
Well at least the English cricket team will still be there to support after you've finished breaking Britain.
Yet more REMAIN scare-mongering!
As for the Cricket, I hope England beat the Caste-botherers in the up-coming series!
I don't know how the "dog" story started but it has been pushed along on twitter most of the day by journalists who should know better. Unsurprisingly, it has now been picked up by the BBC. Can't they find anything else to do?
Neither SKY or BBC, as far as I am aware, have covered the State Visit taking place today.
The BBC were so busy talking to "Norman Smith" that they missed most of Philip Hammond's speech on cyber security and then they pulled away before the end, which was the most important part.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
If only that were true.
It is, sadly, a complete fantasy.
Nope. It is entirely accurate.
Continental countries like France are very protectionist whilst the UK has always been a global trading nation which recognises the benefits of free trade. This is one reason for the lack of a cultural fit between the EU and the UK.
In terms of seeking out value for money, Laddies' "Clinton Firewall Finder" may be worth a look. This is based on finding the first State to vote for Clinton, working down from the top of the bookie's list as follows:
Texas 12/1 Montana 16/1 Georgia 7/1 Arizona 9/4 Iowa 6/1 Ohio 12/1 North Carolina 9/2 Florida 25/1 etc, etc.
Of the above 8 states, the first six, i.e. Texas through to Ohio, are all coloured Red or Pink on 538's map and therefore expected to vote for Trump. Assuming they all do so, next on the list comes North Carolina coloured light blue, therefore leaning towards Clinton. If however she were to lose this state but win Florida, also rated a light blue by 538.com, then the 25/1 bet is landed! Yes it's something of a longshot, but by no means impossible and it could provide a bit of excitement on the night!
Voters see how powerful immigration has become as an instrument of policy in the 21st century. The people who control it can alter countries and continents quickly and in their favour. Its now more powerful than all the armies and nuclear weapons out there.
Left liberals saw this early and took the levers of this instrument for themselves. Now, ordinary voters want it.
That is what drove Brexit. That is what is driving Trump.
I don't know how the "dog" story started but it has been pushed along on twitter most of the day by journalists who should know better. Unsurprisingly, it has now been picked up by the BBC. Can't they find anything else to do?
Neither SKY or BBC, as far as I am aware, have covered the State Visit taking place today.
The BBC were so busy talking to "Norman Smith" that they missed most of Philip Hammond's speech on cyber security and then they pulled away before the end, which was the most important part.
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.
I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?
I am a pensioner and I know a lot of other pensioners. I don't know of one who votes because of winter fuel payments, bus passes, TV Licences or even the triple lock. Every pensioner that I know is far more concerned about the future of their children/grandchildren than they are about themselves. I suspect they will all vote accordingly.
Maybe with age comes common sense? Alternatively maybe Labour voters die younger?
I think it was part of an annual festival to remember when the geese saved Rome from the Gauls in the fifth century by honking loudly when the Gauls, whom the watchdogs hadn't noticed, approached for a nocturnal assault. So, the geese were praised, and the dogs were not.
There was also a crucifying a dog (playing Jesus) joke in A Blackadder Christmas Carol which, displeasingly, was censored from the Blackadder box set.
This brings us to the end of my canine crucifixion commentary.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
If only that were true.
It is, sadly, a complete fantasy.
I don't think that globalism vs parochialism is the driver. It's more about self-government vs internationalism. Are British citizens best served by governing themselves in a sovereign State, or are they best served by being part of the government of a much bigger State, comprising other peoples?
In terms of seeking out value for money, Laddies' "Clinton Firewall Finder" may be worth a look. This is based on finding the first State to vote for Clinton, working down from the top of the bookie's list as follows:
Texas 12/1 Montana 16/1 Georgia 7/1 Arizona 9/4 Iowa 6/1 Ohio 12/1 North Carolina 9/2 Florida 25/1 etc, etc.
Of the above 8 states, the first six, i.e. Texas through to Ohio, are all coloured Red or Pink on 538's map and therefore expected to vote for Trump. Assuming they all do so, next on the list comes North Carolina coloured light blue, therefore leaning towards Clinton. If however she were to lose this state but win Florida, also rated a light blue by 538.com, then the 25/1 bet is landed! Yes it's something of a longshot, but by no means impossible and it could provide a bit of excitement on the night!
Do your own research.
Peter - thanks for the tip. I'm on for Florida (at 25/1) and Nevada (at 16/1) with reasonable amounts.
The firewall bet also gives a better way of betting than BF that Clinton will take Texas (at 12/1 on the firewall chart) but only 9/1 on BF. If I have understand it correctly.
In terms of seeking out value for money, Laddies' "Clinton Firewall Finder" may be worth a look. This is based on finding the first State to vote for Clinton, working down from the top of the bookie's list as follows:
Texas 12/1 Montana 16/1 Georgia 7/1 Arizona 9/4 Iowa 6/1 Ohio 12/1 North Carolina 9/2 Florida 25/1 etc, etc.
Of the above 8 states, the first six, i.e. Texas through to Ohio, are all coloured Red or Pink on 538's map and therefore expected to vote for Trump. Assuming they all do so, next on the list comes North Carolina coloured light blue, therefore leaning towards Clinton. If however she were to lose this state but win Florida, also rated a light blue by 538.com, then the 25/1 bet is landed! Yes it's something of a longshot, but by no means impossible and it could provide a bit of excitement on the night!
Do your own research.
Peter - thanks for the tip. I'm on for Florida (at 25/1) and Nevada (at 16/1) with reasonable amounts.
Good luck with this. Btw I'm on the Barnes side of Putney if that's near you.
I'm near Hammersmith Bridge but currently operating out of the LibDem HQ in Sheen Lane.
If my Florida/Nevada bet comes up I'll buy you a drink. If the LibDems win Richmond Park, I'll buy you two.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
If only that were true.
It is, sadly, a complete fantasy.
I don't think that globalism vs parochialism is the driver. It's more about self-government vs internationalism. Are British citizens best served by governing themselves in a sovereign State, or are they best served by being part of the government of a much bigger State, comprising other peoples?
Are English citizens best served by governing themselves in a sovereign State, or are they best served by being part of the government of a much bigger State, comprising other peoples?
Mr. Glenn, the UK is three centuries old and has worked very well for that time. The EU is just over two decades old and has spent half that time with a demented single currency, and is currently enjoying a partially self-imposed migrant crisis whilst awaiting yet more eurowoe.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.
If only that were true.
It is, sadly, a complete fantasy.
I don't think that globalism vs parochialism is the driver. It's more about self-government vs internationalism. Are British citizens best served by governing themselves in a sovereign State, or are they best served by being part of the government of a much bigger State, comprising other peoples?
Are English citizens best served by governing themselves in a sovereign State, or are they best served by being part of the government of a much bigger State, comprising other peoples?
You seem to forget England is >80% of the UK population UK is only ~12% of the EU population
Comments
I think Brownlee's real competition is from the cycling. Trott could get cycling and women's votes. Some Yorkshire votes will go the way of Nicola Adams, but I agree many will go to the Brownlees (NB circa 5m people in Yorkshire, for those wondering).
Mr. 86, does the BBC decide the shortlist? If so, I agree he won't make it.
Mr. 86, ah, in that case very little chance he makes the list.
REMAIN 48%
In terms of seeking out value for money, Laddies' "Clinton Firewall Finder" may be worth a look. This is based on finding the first State to vote for Clinton, working down from the top of the bookie's list as follows:
Texas 12/1
Montana 16/1
Georgia 7/1
Arizona 9/4
Iowa 6/1
Ohio 12/1
North Carolina 9/2
Florida 25/1
etc, etc.
Of the above 8 states, the first six, i.e. Texas through to Ohio, are all coloured Red or Pink on 538's map and therefore expected to vote for Trump. Assuming they all do so, next on the list comes North Carolina coloured light blue, therefore leaning towards Clinton. If however she were to lose this state but win Florida, also rated a light blue by 538.com, then the 25/1 bet is landed!
Yes it's something of a longshot, but by no means impossible and it could provide a bit of excitement on the night!
Do your own research.
Voters see how powerful immigration has become as an instrument of policy in the 21st century. The people who control it can alter countries and continents quickly and in their favour. Its now more powerful than all the armies and nuclear weapons out there.
Left liberals saw this early and took the levers of this instrument for themselves. Now, ordinary voters want it.
That is what drove Brexit. That is what is driving Trump.
It is, sadly, a complete fantasy.
But like I said, that's just me.
I is British, thank you very much!
In newest @wikileaks: Podesta tells Mills (on 3/2/15!) "we are going to have to dump all those emails so better to do so sooner than later"
And I've seen loads of tweets saying Mrs Obama has deleted all mentions of Hillary from her Twitter account and FLOTUS one. I can't check with my phone. Is this true?
Nevertheless with AA turnout down and hispanic up, the chance is probably higher I'd have thought.
I now have
TX @ 20.0
MT
GA
AZ
IA
OH
NC
FL @ 26.0
NV
NH @ 13.0
All for a fiver in this market.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/303755-sanders-to-crisscross-country-in-final-week-before
Half of all Heathrow's noise complaints come from THE SAME 10 people. https://t.co/hqjKsMRKm8 #VoteKitson #itsKitson
Now personally I don't think this means we should be putting up unnecessary barriers. And given I want an EFTA type relationship I certainly don't think immigration controls trump trade and other freedoms. But I am certainly glad that at some point in the not too distant future our trade relations with the growing rest of the world market will no longer be controlled and stifled by the EU.
Consensus was the Cons probably at about 37 with the Lib Dems about 14.
Again UKIP was thought to be down in single figures 6 -8, and nobody could comprehend the Greens at 5.
I think the pollsters need to be challenged by the web site and not followed.
Interesting crime statistics — so far this year there have been 8 homicides in Croydon, 1 in Hackney, and zero in Lambeth.
http://www.murdermap.co.uk/investigate.asp
Has @MichelleObama deleted her tweets for the past 3 and a half years?
Yes
Also worth noting shadsy has PV winner to lose EC @ 8/1.
Roughly in line with 538's estimation - but more importantly (!) arbable vs betfair.
I'm not taking that bet but it may appeal to some PB'ers
https://twitter.com/matlab/status/793448819023224833
As for the Cricket, I hope England beat the Caste-botherers in the up-coming series!
Technically I believe it is a statistical power law distribution where a few people dominate. You see it often.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law
Barack Obama still has several campaign appearances on the schedule - https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
Neither SKY or BBC, as far as I am aware, have covered the State Visit taking place today.
The BBC were so busy talking to "Norman Smith" that they missed most of Philip Hammond's speech on cyber security and then they pulled away before the end, which was the most important part.
It's all very, very, shoddy.
I think it was part of an annual festival to remember when the geese saved Rome from the Gauls in the fifth century by honking loudly when the Gauls, whom the watchdogs hadn't noticed, approached for a nocturnal assault. So, the geese were praised, and the dogs were not.
There was also a crucifying a dog (playing Jesus) joke in A Blackadder Christmas Carol which, displeasingly, was censored from the Blackadder box set.
This brings us to the end of my canine crucifixion commentary.
https://web.archive.org/web/20140415000000*/https://twitter.com/MichelleObama
And I believe the FLOTUS account is only used for non partisan stuff.
If my Florida/Nevada bet comes up I'll buy you a drink. If the LibDems win Richmond Park, I'll buy you two.
She used to tweet as MichelleObama until early 2013, but has tweeted as FLOTUS since then.
UK is only ~12% of the EU population