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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two new Westminster voting polls with the same picture: Corbyn

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  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant essay on Brexit, Trump, populism, globalism. Whatever your persuasion: READ IT

    http://www.humansandnature.org/the-ethics-of-globalism-nationalism-and-patriotism

    It's incredibly perceptive, and full of insight.


    Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
    I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.

    .... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
    Not all countries are in the EU!
    I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.

    For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.

    EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.

    So what? Free movement in the EU is not predicated on skin colour or ethnicity, just citizenship.

    How many Polish plumbers are non-white?

    How many British Indians are white?

    Freddie Mercury
    ?? Farrokh Bulsara from Tanzania.

    Interesting definition of a "white indian" there !
    He was of Parsi descent though. And how exactly do you define "White" anyway?
    I think he was genetically entirely Parsi?

    And my definition of "white" was "what the common person in the street considers them" - it's a sign of the tolerance of the UK that no one cared about his heritage one way or another

    Because he was white? :-)

    No - he was Parsi of Parsi descent.
  • Options
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant essay on Brexit, Trump, populism, globalism. Whatever your persuasion: READ IT

    http://www.humansandnature.org/the-ethics-of-globalism-nationalism-and-patriotism

    It's incredibly perceptive, and full of insight.


    Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
    I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.

    .... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
    Not all countries are in the EU!
    I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.

    For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.

    EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.

    So what? Free movement in the EU is not predicated on skin colour or ethnicity, just citizenship.

    How many Polish plumbers are non-white?

    How many British Indians are white?

    Freddie Mercury
    Interesting list:

    Joanna Lumley
    Vivien Leigh
    Rudyard Kipling
    Paddy Ashdown
    Eric Blair
    Bob Woolmer
    Colin Cowdrey
    William Thackery Makepeace
    Gerald Durrell

    Curious bias towards the arts - or is that just the ones that we remember?
    Was William Thackery Makepeace involved in the arts?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Depends what the massive Independents surge means.
    Also depends how they all voted, of course!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited November 2016
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Snip

    This looks good for Trump to me.

    Depends what the massive Independents surge means.
    They are "overrated"

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/independent-voters-are-overrated/

    Clinton leads Trump by 3 percentage points in an average of live-interview telephone polls conducted over the last three weeks. In the same nine polls, Trump is carrying independent voters by an average of 7 points.
  • Options

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant essay on Brexit, Trump, populism, globalism. Whatever your persuasion: READ IT

    http://www.humansandnature.org/the-ethics-of-globalism-nationalism-and-patriotism

    It's incredibly perceptive, and full of insight.


    Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
    I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.

    .... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
    Not all countries are in the EU!
    I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.

    For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.

    EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.

    So what? Free movement in the EU is not predicated on skin colour or ethnicity, just citizenship.

    How many Polish plumbers are non-white?

    How many British Indians are white?

    Freddie Mercury
    ?? Farrokh Bulsara from Tanzania.

    Interesting definition of a "white indian" there !
    He was of Parsi descent though. And how exactly do you define "White" anyway?
    I think he was genetically entirely Parsi?

    And my definition of "white" was "what the common person in the street considers them" - it's a sign of the tolerance of the UK that no one cared about his heritage one way or another

    Because he was white? :-)

    No, because he was a fantastic singer and a flamboyant entertainer
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,456
    edited November 2016

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant essay on Brexit, Trump, populism, globalism. Whatever your persuasion: READ IT

    http://www.humansandnature.org/the-ethics-of-globalism-nationalism-and-patriotism

    It's incredibly perceptive, and full of insight.


    Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
    I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.

    .... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
    Not all countries are in the EU!
    I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.

    For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.

    EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.

    So what? Free movement in the EU is not predicated on skin colour or ethnicity, just citizenship.

    How many Polish plumbers are non-white?

    How many British Indians are white?

    Freddie Mercury
    Interesting list:

    Joanna Lumley
    Vivien Leigh
    Rudyard Kipling
    Paddy Ashdown
    Eric Blair
    Bob Woolmer
    Colin Cowdrey
    William Thackery Makepeace
    Gerald Durrell

    British Indians, or British people born in India? Would Indians see them as Indians?

    Sonia Maino is an Italian Indian:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonia_Maino
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    matt said:

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant essay on Brexit, Trump, populism, globalism. Whatever your persuasion: READ IT

    http://www.humansandnature.org/the-ethics-of-globalism-nationalism-and-patriotism

    It's incredibly perceptive, and full of insight.


    Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
    I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.

    .... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
    Not all countries are in the EU!
    I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.

    For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.

    EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.

    So what? Free movement in the EU is not predicated on skin colour or ethnicity, just citizenship.

    How many Polish plumbers are non-white?

    How many British Indians are white?

    Freddie Mercury
    Interesting list:

    Joanna Lumley
    Vivien Leigh
    Rudyard Kipling
    Paddy Ashdown
    Eric Blair
    Bob Woolmer
    Colin Cowdrey
    William Thackery Makepeace
    Gerald Durrell

    British Indians, or British people born in India? Would Indians see them as Indians?

    We can't stop Indians being racist.

    I am not sure it is racist to believe that Rudyard Kipling was not an Indian. I would be very surprised if he considered himself an Indian. Maybe Anglo-Indian, but that is very different.

    Yes, Wellington, stables and horses and all that.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,369
    MP_SE said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/793486511043817472

    Just returned home to read this. Insanity. The excuse given is risible.

    Even from a politicking point of view I simply don't understand this decision. It seems completely perverse.
    Can anyone provide a reasonable explanation as to what the hell the Tories were playing at? So much for trying to improve their already poor image.
    It's about (a) respecting the principle that each party is allocated certain committee slots and they don't screw around with the people selected by the other side (in the same way that Labour doesn't press whoever in Government is being embarrassing onto a Tory slot) and (b) the view that as he hasn't been convicted or indeed charged with anything, it's unfair to do more than has already been done, i.e. getting him to stand down as chair. If all MPs who have behaved with poor judgment in their personal lives were to be blocked from committee work, the committees would suffer more than MPs. This is not a paid position and nobody argues that he is not reasonably well-informed about the issue, so likely to play a useful part.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited November 2016
    If a donkey is born in a stable, does it become a horse ?
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Evening all. I did ask earlier, but does anyone know of any markets on who will actually be the next president, ie that pays out on Inauguration Day?
  • Options

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant essay on Brexit, Trump, populism, globalism. Whatever your persuasion: READ IT

    http://www.humansandnature.org/the-ethics-of-globalism-nationalism-and-patriotism

    It's incredibly perceptive, and full of insight.


    Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
    I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.

    .... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
    Not all countries are in the EU!
    I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.

    For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.

    EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.

    So what? Free movement in the EU is not predicated on skin colour or ethnicity, just citizenship.

    How many Polish plumbers are non-white?

    How many British Indians are white?

    Freddie Mercury
    Interesting list:

    Joanna Lumley
    Vivien Leigh
    Rudyard Kipling
    Paddy Ashdown
    Eric Blair
    Bob Woolmer
    Colin Cowdrey
    William Thackery Makepeace
    Gerald Durrell

    British Indians, or British people born in India? Would Indians see them as Indians?

    I have no idea. Certainly I would count an Indian born in Britain as British. I see no reason why the reverse should not be true unless there is a specific legal impediment.

    I am not sure I agree. I would certainly see anyone of Indian descent born here as British, but Brits born in India tended not to be members of families that had emigrated there to build new lives and to settle permanently, but to take part - in one way or another - in an unelected government of occupation.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,456
    edited November 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    If a donkey is born in a stable, does it become a horse ?

    Donkeys and Horses are different species. Human beings (irrespective of "race") are the same species.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Pulpstar said:

    If a donkey is born in a stable, does it become a horse ?

    No, but if a person is born in the US, they become an American ;)
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited November 2016

    Pulpstar said:

    If a donkey is born in a stable, does it become a horse ?

    Donkeys and Horses are different species. Human beings (irrespective of "race") are the same species.
    Of course :D

    The correct answer is "No"

    The answer to the unspoken question is that nationality and ethnicity are seperate "things" (Though not so much when you get to Japan ;) )
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Surely we all want a nail biting election night? :D
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Surely we all want a nail biting election night? :D
    I certainly do, a landslide for either candidate would be "suboptimal"
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,827
    Trump, on the Russian connection he now denies.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/ShaunKing/status/791370808945889280/video/1
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    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant essay on Brexit, Trump, populism, globalism. Whatever your persuasion: READ IT

    http://www.humansandnature.org/the-ethics-of-globalism-nationalism-and-patriotism

    It's incredibly perceptive, and full of insight.


    Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
    I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.

    .... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
    Not all countries are in the EU!
    I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.

    For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.

    EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.

    So what? Free movement in the EU is not predicated on skin colour or ethnicity, just citizenship.

    How many Polish plumbers are non-white?

    How many British Indians are white?

    Freddie Mercury
    Interesting list:

    Joanna Lumley
    Vivien Leigh
    Rudyard Kipling
    Paddy Ashdown
    Eric Blair
    Bob Woolmer
    Colin Cowdrey
    William Thackery Makepeace
    Gerald Durrell

    Curious bias towards the arts - or is that just the ones that we remember?
    Was William Thackery Makepeace involved in the arts?
    Is Vanity Fair politics or art?
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    US Election Apocryphal Evidence:

    Just drove from home to a coffee shop - 8 miles through 4 villages and a mid-sized town. I passed many hundreds of homes. This is rural and exurbia. High-school football (very serious business - the local team won on Friday, pulling their first string team part way through the second quarter with a 48-0 lead in the bag), hunting and farming country. Should be solid Trump.

    The most notable thing is the almost complete dearth of lawn signs. One Trump, one Johnson, not a single Hillary. No US House or Senate signs. One Montgomery County Executive Board sign, 5 Education Board election signs. All the other lawn signs were for landscaping services, tutoring or day school.

    Yesterday, in Bethesda, which should be overwhelmingly Clinton, a similar story, but rather more signs than here.

    This has to be the lowest enthusiasm election ever - for both sides.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a01QQZyl-_I
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    edited November 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    If a donkey is born in a stable, does it become a horse ?


    Odd question. Context? (The biological answer is no)

    Ah! Now I see the context from other posts.
  • Options
    The Times-Picayune/Lucid poll: Clinton + 2 (national)
  • Options


    I am not sure I agree. I would certainly see anyone of Indian descent born here as British, but Brits born in India tended not to be members of families that had emigrated there to build new lives and to settle permanently, but to take part - in one way or another - in an unelected government of occupation.

    Sorry but if anyone said that about a second generation Indian in the UK they would rightly be attacked for it. I am afraid you are trying to draw distinctions which are both invalid and rather offensive just to suit your argument.
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a01QQZyl-_I
    :lol:
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,006
    matt said:

    MP_SE said:
    I find myself unable to stop thinking about those eyebrows. Wondering what happens when she's surprised.
    She is into amateur dramatics. She has a dramatic presence and a great voice. When elected, she will make a star MP. Farron watch out!
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MTimT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If a donkey is born in a stable, does it become a horse ?


    Odd question. Context? (The biological answer is no)
    Wellington's bitterness about being Ascendant rather than British
  • Options
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant essay on Brexit, Trump, populism, globalism. Whatever your persuasion: READ IT

    http://www.humansandnature.org/the-ethics-of-globalism-nationalism-and-patriotism

    It's incredibly perceptive, and full of insight.


    Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
    I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.

    .... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
    Not all countries are in the EU!
    I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.

    For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.

    EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.

    So what? Free movement in the EU is not predicated on skin colour or ethnicity, just citizenship.

    How many Polish plumbers are non-white?

    How many British Indians are white?

    Freddie Mercury
    Interesting list:

    Joanna Lumley
    Vivien Leigh
    Rudyard Kipling
    Paddy Ashdown
    Eric Blair
    Bob Woolmer
    Colin Cowdrey
    William Thackery Makepeace
    Gerald Durrell

    Curious bias towards the arts - or is that just the ones that we remember?
    Was William Thackery Makepeace involved in the arts?
    Is Vanity Fair politics or art?
    It's art, indubitably, but written by William Makepeace Thackeray.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    The wave might be so big that demographics get washed away. That's what I fear.
  • Options
    SeanT said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant essay on Brexit, Trump, populism, globalism. Whatever your persuasion: READ IT

    http://www.humansandnature.org/the-ethics-of-globalism-nationalism-and-patriotism

    It's incredibly perceptive, and full of insight.


    Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
    I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.

    .... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
    Not all countries are in the EU!
    I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.

    For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.

    EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.

    So what? Free movement in the EU is not predicated on skin colour or ethnicity, just citizenship.

    How many Polish plumbers are non-white?

    How many British Indians are white?

    Freddie Mercury
    ?? Farrokh Bulsara from Tanzania.

    Interesting definition of a "white indian" there !
    He was of Parsi descent though. And how exactly do you define "White" anyway?
    I think he was genetically entirely Parsi?

    And my definition of "white" was "what the common person in the street considers them" - it's a sign of the tolerance of the UK that no one cared about his heritage one way or another

    Because he was white? :-)

    No - he was Parsi of Parsi descent.
    One of the ironies of Brexit is that both Hannan and Carswell were born abroad - in Peru and Uganda, respectively.

    And Farage is of Huguenot descent.
    Both know the world is much bigger than just the EU. Very sensible.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2016
    weejonnie said:

    JackW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    JackW said:

    Arizona - Data Orbital - Sample 550 - 29-30 Oct

    Clinton 41 .. Trump 45

    http://us12.campaign-archive1.com/?u=5a280d25318f2afe3f311adb6&id=215d65b9fa&e=

    Whilst that'd normally have GOP strategists reaching for the sick bucket it is actually decent for Trump given his weakness with Latino voters.
    A better poll for Trump but these small sample sizes irk me and more importantly is their structural weakness in polling Hispanics.
    Latest Florida votes

    Mail Provided (Not .. 436,754 516,412 31,045 289,185
    Voted Vote-by-Mail 865,187 793,105 51,842 344,385
    Voted Early in person 783,416 839,572 46,617 353,397

    With the Republican lead in Voted by mail now up to 72,000 and the Democrat lead in Voted early 56,000 I think that this is better for the Republicans (who only held a net 9000 lead a couple of days ago).

    However, as usual we don't know who they voted for, nor the independents.
    Yeah, yesterday Republican lead in mail increased 8K while the Democrats only won the in-person vote by 575...

    At this rate the Republicans could go into election day with a slim lead in the early vote. Compared to 2008 where Dems had an almost 9% lead.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    No
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited November 2016
    O/T Mean result of all 31 national VI polls reported by Britain Elects taken since Theresa May became PM:

    Con 40.5%
    Lab 28.9 %
    LD 7.9%
    Ukip 12.2%

    The current position appears almost unchanged from that in mid-July. The Tories may have benefitted by a net movement of 1pt from Ukip and 1-2pts from Labour. The Lib Dem poll share is essentially static.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    MP_SE said:
    I find myself unable to stop thinking about those eyebrows. Wondering what happens when she's surprised.
    She is into amateur dramatics. She has a dramatic presence and a great voice. When elected, she will make a star MP. Farron watch out!
    You've just described Leonard Nimoy. Although she has more Vulcan-esque eyebrows.

    Can she do anything other than the party line? FX: what is the party line?
  • Options
    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant essay on Brexit, Trump, populism, globalism. Whatever your persuasion: READ IT

    http://www.humansandnature.org/the-ethics-of-globalism-nationalism-and-patriotism

    It's incredibly perceptive, and full of insight.


    Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
    I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.

    .... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
    Not all countries are in the EU!
    I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.

    For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.

    EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.

    So what? Free movement in the EU is not predicated on skin colour or ethnicity, just citizenship.

    How many Polish plumbers are non-white?

    How many British Indians are white?

    Freddie Mercury
    Interesting list:

    Joanna Lumley
    Vivien Leigh
    Rudyard Kipling
    Paddy Ashdown
    Eric Blair
    Bob Woolmer
    Colin Cowdrey
    William Thackery Makepeace
    Gerald Durrell

    British Indians, or British people born in India? Would Indians see them as Indians?

    Depends if they had a right to citizenship and if they availed themselves of it. That would be deemed by many a racist question if asked of a naturalized Brit of Indian or other ethnic origin.

    I grant that the issue is somewhat different when a colonial power is involved, but we have to be careful of double standards here. Should white South Africans not be considered South African?
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MTimT said:

    US Election Apocryphal Evidence:

    Just drove from home to a coffee shop - 8 miles through 4 villages and a mid-sized town. I passed many hundreds of homes. This is rural and exurbia. High-school football (very serious business - the local team won on Friday, pulling their first string team part way through the second quarter with a 48-0 lead in the bag), hunting and farming country. Should be solid Trump.

    The most notable thing is the almost complete dearth of lawn signs. One Trump, one Johnson, not a single Hillary. No US House or Senate signs. One Montgomery County Executive Board sign, 5 Education Board election signs. All the other lawn signs were for landscaping services, tutoring or day school.

    Yesterday, in Bethesda, which should be overwhelmingly Clinton, a similar story, but rather more signs than here.

    This has to be the lowest enthusiasm election ever - for both sides.

    Lawn signs have been abandoned by presidential campaigns over the last few cycles as they dont give any value.
  • Options
    Mr. T, even if close on the day, Clinton's got the advantage in postal votes.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    TGOHF said:

    FF43 said:

    SeanT said:

    This is a brilliant essay on Brexit, Trump, populism, globalism. Whatever your persuasion: READ IT

    http://www.humansandnature.org/the-ethics-of-globalism-nationalism-and-patriotism

    It's incredibly perceptive, and full of insight.


    Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. .
    I'd argue it was a decision to turn away from the parochial (and crap) EU and face the entire globe.

    .... from behind closed borders and high walls. Doesn't Brexit mean anti-immigration?
    Not all countries are in the EU!
    I don't follow you. Are you suggesting that Brexit is anti-immigration from the EU but not from the rest of the world? I'm struggling to make sense of your comment.

    For some reason, Sunil seems to believe that it is racist to allow free movement for British Indians inside the EU but not for Indians who live in India.

    EU countries are majority white, most non-EU countries are majority non-white.

    So what? Free movement in the EU is not predicated on skin colour or ethnicity, just citizenship.

    How many Polish plumbers are non-white?

    How many British Indians are white?

    Freddie Mercury
    Interesting list:

    Joanna Lumley
    Vivien Leigh
    Rudyard Kipling
    Paddy Ashdown
    Eric Blair
    Bob Woolmer
    Colin Cowdrey
    William Thackery Makepeace
    Gerald Durrell

    Curious bias towards the arts - or is that just the ones that we remember?
    Was William Thackery Makepeace involved in the arts?
    Is Vanity Fair politics or art?
    It's art, indubitably, but written by William Makepeace Thackeray.
    I assumed it was a typo on the list @RichardTyndall pinched off the web
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    edited November 2016
    And again....

    In two earlier trials in 2014, codenamed Operation Brooke, 14 men were jailed for more than 100 years. The three convicted defendants in Operation Button - Sheikh and Abdulahi and Dahir - were also found guilty in Operation Brooke.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3894200/Three-members-Somali-sex-gang-trafficked-raped-subjected-British-schoolgirls-violent-horrible-abuse-jailed-32-years.html
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    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    The wave might be so big that demographics get washed away. That's what I fear.
    Hispanics may save the day. 69% absolutely certain to vote according to Luntz (quoting Pew).
  • Options
    DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    SeanT said:

    MTimT said:

    US Election Apocryphal Evidence:

    Just drove from home to a coffee shop - 8 miles through 4 villages and a mid-sized town. I passed many hundreds of homes. This is rural and exurbia. High-school football (very serious business - the local team won on Friday, pulling their first string team part way through the second quarter with a 48-0 lead in the bag), hunting and farming country. Should be solid Trump.

    The most notable thing is the almost complete dearth of lawn signs. One Trump, one Johnson, not a single Hillary. No US House or Senate signs. One Montgomery County Executive Board sign, 5 Education Board election signs. All the other lawn signs were for landscaping services, tutoring or day school.

    Yesterday, in Bethesda, which should be overwhelmingly Clinton, a similar story, but rather more signs than here.

    This has to be the lowest enthusiasm election ever - for both sides.

    I saw a national poll yesterday which said Hillary was actually LESS popular than Trump (who was wildly unpopular)

    Quite a feat.

    Also true in UK at Election time. I think people are showing their colours online these days.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''If there is any Shy Trumper/Brexiteer effect then he could win this. ''

    If you were an office worker in the US, full of sharp elbowed sharp tongued career women, would you admit you were going to vote for Trump?

    F8ck no.
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    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    MP_SE said:
    I find myself unable to stop thinking about those eyebrows. Wondering what happens when she's surprised.
    She is into amateur dramatics. She has a dramatic presence and a great voice. When elected, she will make a star MP. Farron watch out!
    LibDems - Spinning Here!!! :lol:
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    MP_SE said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/793486511043817472

    Just returned home to read this. Insanity. The excuse given is risible.

    Even from a politicking point of view I simply don't understand this decision. It seems completely perverse.
    Can anyone provide a reasonable explanation as to what the hell the Tories were playing at? So much for trying to improve their already poor image.
    It's about (a) respecting the principle that each party is allocated certain committee slots and they don't screw around with the people selected by the other side (in the same way that Labour doesn't press whoever in Government is being embarrassing onto a Tory slot) and (b) the view that as he hasn't been convicted or indeed charged with anything, it's unfair to do more than has already been done, i.e. getting him to stand down as chair. If all MPs who have behaved with poor judgment in their personal lives were to be blocked from committee work, the committees would suffer more than MPs. This is not a paid position and nobody argues that he is not reasonably well-informed about the issue, so likely to play a useful part.
    Thank you for the explanation. Much appreciated.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,006
    edited November 2016
    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    MP_SE said:
    I find myself unable to stop thinking about those eyebrows. Wondering what happens when she's surprised.
    She is into amateur dramatics. She has a dramatic presence and a great voice. When elected, she will make a star MP. Farron watch out!
    You've just described Leonard Nimoy. Although she has more Vulcan-esque eyebrows.

    Can she do anything other than the party line? FX: what is the party line?
    I've just tweeted Betfair suggesting they put her on the list of next LibDem leader. You heard it here first.

    EDIT You need to get used to her eyebrows. You are going to see a lot more of them.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''Hispanics may save the day. 69% absolutely certain to vote according to Luntz (quoting Pew). ''

    The logic of that is that Hispanics are pro mass immigration and want the US to become more like Latin America.

    I'm not sure at all that that is the case.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    SeanT said:

    The Times-Picayune/Lucid poll: Clinton + 2 (national)

    Fuck it is close.

    If there is any Shy Trumper/Brexiteer effect then he could win this.
    Its the Democrats that are being shy judging by early voting/mail ins.
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    MP_SE said:

    https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/793486511043817472

    Just returned home to read this. Insanity. The excuse given is risible.

    Even from a politicking point of view I simply don't understand this decision. It seems completely perverse.
    Can anyone provide a reasonable explanation as to what the hell the Tories were playing at? So much for trying to improve their already poor image.
    It's about (a) respecting the principle that each party is allocated certain committee slots and they don't screw around with the people selected by the other side (in the same way that Labour doesn't press whoever in Government is being embarrassing onto a Tory slot) and (b) the view that as he hasn't been convicted or indeed charged with anything, it's unfair to do more than has already been done, i.e. getting him to stand down as chair. If all MPs who have behaved with poor judgment in their personal lives were to be blocked from committee work, the committees would suffer more than MPs. This is not a paid position and nobody argues that he is not reasonably well-informed about the issue, so likely to play a useful part.
    So what you are saying is the fault that Jim the washing machine salesman has disgracefully got the job is 100% down to Labour....
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    taffys said:

    ''If there is any Shy Trumper/Brexiteer effect then he could win this. ''

    If you were an office worker in the US, full of sharp elbowed sharp tongued career women, would you admit you were going to vote for Trump?

    F8ck no.

    You were outcompeted by a woman I assume. If you were a worker surrounded by thick, sexist, fat white males polishing their weapons and claiming Trump is their saviour.... sounds unpleasant doesn't it.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    MP_SE said:
    I find myself unable to stop thinking about those eyebrows. Wondering what happens when she's surprised.
    She is into amateur dramatics. She has a dramatic presence and a great voice. When elected, she will make a star MP. Farron watch out!
    You've just described Leonard Nimoy. Although she has more Vulcan-esque eyebrows.

    Can she do anything other than the party line? FX: what is the party line?
    I've just tweeted Betfair suggesting they put her on the list of next LibDem leader. You heard it here first.

    EDIT You need to get used to her eyebrows. You are going to see a lot more of them.
    We really won't be.

    Thankfully the decent residents of Richmond do not care much for Farron's oddball brand of Europhilia.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    MP_SE said:
    I find myself unable to stop thinking about those eyebrows. Wondering what happens when she's surprised.
    She is into amateur dramatics. She has a dramatic presence and a great voice. When elected, she will make a star MP. Farron watch out!
    You've just described Leonard Nimoy. Although she has more Vulcan-esque eyebrows.

    Can she do anything other than the party line? FX: what is the party line?
    I've just tweeted Betfair suggesting they put her on the list of next LibDem leader. You heard it here first.

    EDIT You need to get used to her eyebrows. You are going to see a lot more of them.
    When will Farron be ejected, please.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,631

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    The wave might be so big that demographics get washed away. That's what I fear.
    Hispanics may save the day. 69% absolutely certain to vote according to Luntz (quoting Pew).
    But 20% of them are breaking for Trump, so it might not be as positive as we hope.

    If Hillary was even 10% better we would already be in the clear. Bloody DNC idiots. They tied it up for her and now she's close to losing to the worst GOP candidate of all time.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Trump in to 3.75 now. What's going on tonight?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    MP_SE said:
    I find myself unable to stop thinking about those eyebrows. Wondering what happens when she's surprised.
    She is into amateur dramatics. She has a dramatic presence and a great voice. When elected, she will make a star MP. Farron watch out!
    You've just described Leonard Nimoy. Although she has more Vulcan-esque eyebrows.

    Can she do anything other than the party line? FX: what is the party line?
    I've just tweeted Betfair suggesting they put her on the list of next LibDem leader. You heard it here first.

    EDIT You need to get used to her eyebrows. You are going to see a lot more of them.
    I think she'll make a great Lib Dem leader, after SLASHING Zac's majority to 2501 votes, she'll go forward as the PPC for Sheffield Hallam after Nick steps down in 2020 - and win the leadership election when Tim stands down in 2023 :)
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    MP_SE said:
    I find myself unable to stop thinking about those eyebrows. Wondering what happens when she's surprised.
    She is into amateur dramatics. She has a dramatic presence and a great voice. When elected, she will make a star MP. Farron watch out!
    You've just described Leonard Nimoy. Although she has more Vulcan-esque eyebrows.

    Can she do anything other than the party line? FX: what is the party line?
    I've just tweeted Betfair suggesting they put her on the list of next LibDem leader. You heard it here first.

    EDIT You need to get used to her eyebrows. You are going to see a lot more of them.
    Of course once she loses a peach target she'll never get another run.

    I suspect Farron is setting her up for a fall
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    MP_SE said:
    I find myself unable to stop thinking about those eyebrows. Wondering what happens when she's surprised.
    She is into amateur dramatics. She has a dramatic presence and a great voice. When elected, she will make a star MP. Farron watch out!
    You've just described Leonard Nimoy. Although she has more Vulcan-esque eyebrows.

    Can she do anything other than the party line? FX: what is the party line?
    I've just tweeted Betfair suggesting they put her on the list of next LibDem leader. You heard it here first.

    EDIT You need to get used to her eyebrows. You are going to see a lot more of them.
    Of course once she loses a peach target she'll never get another run.

    I suspect Farron is setting her up for a fall
    Zac's majority SLASHED.

    That'll be the big takeaway from this election :)
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited November 2016
    Hillary's national lead over Trump falls to just 2.2% in the latest Realclearpolitics poll average. If replicated at the election it would be closer than the 2.4% by which Bush beat Kerry in 2004 and would be the fifth closest election in terms of the popular vote since WW2

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,006
    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    MP_SE said:
    I find myself unable to stop thinking about those eyebrows. Wondering what happens when she's surprised.
    She is into amateur dramatics. She has a dramatic presence and a great voice. When elected, she will make a star MP. Farron watch out!
    You've just described Leonard Nimoy. Although she has more Vulcan-esque eyebrows.

    Can she do anything other than the party line? FX: what is the party line?
    I've just tweeted Betfair suggesting they put her on the list of next LibDem leader. You heard it here first.

    EDIT You need to get used to her eyebrows. You are going to see a lot more of them.
    When will Farron be ejected, please.
    Betfair just replied to my tweet.



    @BetfairCS


    @Barnesian2 Sure thing, we are raising this request to our traders
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Some tempting odds available for Clinton. Although I said the same about Remain for the EU referendum and nearly lost a lot of money.
  • Options


    I am not sure I agree. I would certainly see anyone of Indian descent born here as British, but Brits born in India tended not to be members of families that had emigrated there to build new lives and to settle permanently, but to take part - in one way or another - in an unelected government of occupation.

    Sorry but if anyone said that about a second generation Indian in the UK they would rightly be attacked for it. I am afraid you are trying to draw distinctions which are both invalid and rather offensive just to suit your argument.

    But no-one could say it about a second generation Indian in the UK. The Indians did not invade the UK and govern it without consent for over 100 years.

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    Barnesian said:

    ***** Betting Post *****

    In terms of seeking out value for money, Laddies' "Clinton Firewall Finder" may be worth a look. This is based on finding the first State to vote for Clinton, working down from the top of the bookie's list as follows:

    Texas 12/1
    Montana 16/1
    Georgia 7/1
    Arizona 9/4
    Iowa 6/1
    Ohio 12/1
    North Carolina 9/2
    Florida 25/1
    etc, etc.

    Of the above 8 states, the first six, i.e. Texas through to Ohio, are all coloured Red or Pink on 538's map and therefore expected to vote for Trump. Assuming they all do so, next on the list comes North Carolina coloured light blue, therefore leaning towards Clinton. If however she were to lose this state but win Florida, also rated a light blue by 538.com, then the 25/1 bet is landed!
    Yes it's something of a longshot, but by no means impossible and it could provide a bit of excitement on the night!

    Do your own research.

    Peter - thanks for the tip. I'm on for Florida (at 25/1) and Nevada (at 16/1) with reasonable amounts.
    The firewall bet also gives a better way of betting than BF that Clinton will take Texas (at 12/1 on the firewall chart) but only 9/1 on BF. If I have understand it correctly.
    That's absolutely right, but unfortunately still no sort of value imho.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    The wave might be so big that demographics get washed away. That's what I fear.
    Hispanics may save the day. 69% absolutely certain to vote according to Luntz (quoting Pew).
    But 20% of them are breaking for Trump, so it might not be as positive as we hope.

    If Hillary was even 10% better we would already be in the clear. Bloody DNC idiots. They tied it up for her and now she's close to losing to the worst GOP candidate of all time.

    I am getting that familiar sinking feeling. It looks like Trump could do it. And that would be a catastrophe for the US and, by extension, us.

  • Options
    Mr. Sandpit, jitters, exacerbated by Clinton not exactly being a stellar candidate.

    Of course, unexpected results occasionally happen in politics.
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,006
    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    MP_SE said:
    I find myself unable to stop thinking about those eyebrows. Wondering what happens when she's surprised.
    She is into amateur dramatics. She has a dramatic presence and a great voice. When elected, she will make a star MP. Farron watch out!
    You've just described Leonard Nimoy. Although she has more Vulcan-esque eyebrows.

    Can she do anything other than the party line? FX: what is the party line?
    I've just tweeted Betfair suggesting they put her on the list of next LibDem leader. You heard it here first.

    EDIT You need to get used to her eyebrows. You are going to see a lot more of them.
    Of course once she loses a peach target she'll never get another run.

    I suspect Farron is setting her up for a fall
    Farron didn't choose her. He's just met her. She only joined the LibDems in May 2015 and has emerged as a local star, chosen by acclamation by local LibDems.

    Even Andrew Neil likes her.

    at 12:05 http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b080xt7r/daily-politics-26102016

    You can hear the voice and examine the eyebrows again.

  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''You were outcompeted by a woman I assume''

    Not really. I actually prefer women bosses. No testosterone. No 'mine's bigger than yours'. Much easier.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,141
    Nate Cohn's analysis of North Carolina today shows the same projected lead for Clinton as yesterday - 5.7%:
    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html?_r=0

    I think the polling data on voting intention that it's based on must clearly be over-optimistic for Clinton, as far as voting since the FBI intervention is concerned. On the other hand, presumably the analysis should still pick up any relevant changes in turnout.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,088
    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    I said last week when I saw Mcternan and Dugdale were over to canvas for Hillary that it was curtains for her. McTernan is an absolute Jonah, every election he has been involved in has led to disaster for his candidates.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    MP_SE said:
    I find myself unable to stop thinking about those eyebrows. Wondering what happens when she's surprised.
    She is into amateur dramatics. She has a dramatic presence and a great voice. When elected, she will make a star MP. Farron watch out!
    You've just described Leonard Nimoy. Although she has more Vulcan-esque eyebrows.

    Can she do anything other than the party line? FX: what is the party line?
    I've just tweeted Betfair suggesting they put her on the list of next LibDem leader. You heard it here first.

    EDIT You need to get used to her eyebrows. You are going to see a lot more of them.
    Of course once she loses a peach target she'll never get another run.

    I suspect Farron is setting her up for a fall
    Zac's majority SLASHED.

    That'll be the big takeaway from this election :)
    Which means that she needs to run in Richmond again in 2020 - after all it's one more heave - and gets flattened.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758


    I am not sure I agree. I would certainly see anyone of Indian descent born here as British, but Brits born in India tended not to be members of families that had emigrated there to build new lives and to settle permanently, but to take part - in one way or another - in an unelected government of occupation.

    Sorry but if anyone said that about a second generation Indian in the UK they would rightly be attacked for it. I am afraid you are trying to draw distinctions which are both invalid and rather offensive just to suit your argument.

    But no-one could say it about a second generation Indian in the UK. The Indians did not invade the UK and govern it without consent for over 100 years.

    Oi! That's my great-great-great and great-great grandpas you're talking about!
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,141
    Sandpit said:

    Trump in to 3.75 now. What's going on tonight?

    There has been some movement in the polls. You can find further details on this thread. Hope this helps.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,167
    edited November 2016

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    The wave might be so big that demographics get washed away. That's what I fear.
    Hispanics may save the day. 69% absolutely certain to vote according to Luntz (quoting Pew).
    But 20% of them are breaking for Trump, so it might not be as positive as we hope.

    If Hillary was even 10% better we would already be in the clear. Bloody DNC idiots. They tied it up for her and now she's close to losing to the worst GOP candidate of all time.

    I am getting that familiar sinking feeling. It looks like Trump could do it. And that would be a catastrophe for the US and, by extension, us.

    Not for us necessarily, Trump's trade adviser has said he would do a trade deal with Brexit UK ahead of the EU in contrast to the pro-EU Hillary. The main beneficiaries of a Trump presidency would be Putin's Russia, Brexit UK and Netanyahu's Israel, the rest of the world would be better off under Hillary. I still think a Trump popular vote win is more likely than an electoral college win though
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    I said last week when I saw Mcternan and Dugdale were over to canvas for Hillary that it was curtains for her. McTernan is an absolute Jonah, every election he has been involved in has led to disaster for his candidates.
    I'm not sure why British politicians are interfering with a US election.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    If you missed it, this looks awfully like evidence.

    @nypost: Podesta told Clinton team to ‘dump’ emails after use of private server emerged
    https://t.co/5RFTNe8JHd
  • Options
    Charles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Charles said:

    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    Barnesian said:

    matt said:

    MP_SE said:
    I find myself unable to stop thinking about those eyebrows. Wondering what happens when she's surprised.
    She is into amateur dramatics. She has a dramatic presence and a great voice. When elected, she will make a star MP. Farron watch out!
    You've just described Leonard Nimoy. Although she has more Vulcan-esque eyebrows.

    Can she do anything other than the party line? FX: what is the party line?
    I've just tweeted Betfair suggesting they put her on the list of next LibDem leader. You heard it here first.

    EDIT You need to get used to her eyebrows. You are going to see a lot more of them.
    Of course once she loses a peach target she'll never get another run.

    I suspect Farron is setting her up for a fall
    Zac's majority SLASHED.

    That'll be the big takeaway from this election :)
    Which means that she needs to run in Richmond again in 2020 - after all it's one more heave - and gets flattened.
    Why did Zac lose in the Mayoral election?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Just had a look back at the Primary totals, Kentucky is an odd outlier, has much higher Democrat turnout than republican for it's primary but is obviously very safe GOP.
  • Options
    Mr. D, neither am I. It's as ludicrous as the Westminster debate lambasting Trump.

    Mr. T, slightly unfair comparison as the female sample size is much smaller. Empress Zoe of Byzantium was not good, and Queen Matilda (had a civil war with King Stephen) was so-so at best. And don't forget Isabella [he says, hoping he got the name right], Edward III's mother who had an affair with the man who (possibly) killed her husband and was stealing power from her son (possibly with an eye to murdering him).

    That said, my cover artist is a lady, and very easy to work with.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited November 2016
    MTimT said:

    US Election Apocryphal Evidence:

    Just drove from home to a coffee shop - 8 miles through 4 villages and a mid-sized town. I passed many hundreds of homes. This is rural and exurbia. High-school football (very serious business - the local team won on Friday, pulling their first string team part way through the second quarter with a 48-0 lead in the bag), hunting and farming country. Should be solid Trump.

    The most notable thing is the almost complete dearth of lawn signs. One Trump, one Johnson, not a single Hillary. No US House or Senate signs. One Montgomery County Executive Board sign, 5 Education Board election signs. All the other lawn signs were for landscaping services, tutoring or day school.

    Yesterday, in Bethesda, which should be overwhelmingly Clinton, a similar story, but rather more signs than here.

    This has to be the lowest enthusiasm election ever - for both sides.

    Perhaps it reveals how reluctant the electorate are to be open about their loyalties and voting preference?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Can anyone point me to actual favourable Democrat polling EARLY VOTING evidence ANYWHERE ?

    I'm struggling to find it right now.
  • Options

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    The wave might be so big that demographics get washed away. That's what I fear.
    Hispanics may save the day. 69% absolutely certain to vote according to Luntz (quoting Pew).
    But 20% of them are breaking for Trump, so it might not be as positive as we hope.

    If Hillary was even 10% better we would already be in the clear. Bloody DNC idiots. They tied it up for her and now she's close to losing to the worst GOP candidate of all time.

    I am getting that familiar sinking feeling. It looks like Trump could do it. And that would be a catastrophe for the US and, by extension, us.

    Cheer up. Trump's one-man demolition of the US's two rotten ruling political dynasties has been inspirational.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    This election is starting to become the one thing the Democrats didn't want

    A referendum on Hillary.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    The wave might be so big that demographics get washed away. That's what I fear.
    Hispanics may save the day. 69% absolutely certain to vote according to Luntz (quoting Pew).
    But 20% of them are breaking for Trump, so it might not be as positive as we hope.

    If Hillary was even 10% better we would already be in the clear. Bloody DNC idiots. They tied it up for her and now she's close to losing to the worst GOP candidate of all time.

    I am getting that familiar sinking feeling. It looks like Trump could do it. And that would be a catastrophe for the US and, by extension, us.

    Not for us necessarily, Trump's trade adviser has said he would do a trade deal with Brexit UK ahead of the EU in contrast to the pro-EU Hillary. The main beneficiaries of a Trump presidency would be Putin's Russia, Brexit UK and Netanyahu's Israel, the rest of the world would be better off under Hillary. I still think a Trump popular vote win is more likely than an electoral college win though

    I am not sure being one of Trump America's three friends is going to do us a huge amount of good. Any trade deal would have to be negotiated and then signed off by Congress. A long process. In the meantime, there is no knowing what he might do and what might unfold in the US itself. I so think it will be worth avoiding for a while after he is inaugurated. There will undoubtedly be significant trouble in the cities.

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    @MTimT Are you a Ravens fan :) ?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    The wave might be so big that demographics get washed away. That's what I fear.
    Hispanics may save the day. 69% absolutely certain to vote according to Luntz (quoting Pew).
    But 20% of them are breaking for Trump, so it might not be as positive as we hope.

    If Hillary was even 10% better we would already be in the clear. Bloody DNC idiots. They tied it up for her and now she's close to losing to the worst GOP candidate of all time.

    I am getting that familiar sinking feeling. It looks like Trump could do it. And that would be a catastrophe for the US and, by extension, us.

    Not for us necessarily, Trump's trade adviser has said he would do a trade deal with Brexit UK ahead of the EU in contrast to the pro-EU Hillary. The main beneficiaries of a Trump presidency would be Putin's Russia, Brexit UK and Netanyahu's Israel, the rest of the world would be better off under Hillary. I still think a Trump popular vote win is more likely than an electoral college win though

    I am not sure being one of Trump America's three friends is going to do us a huge amount of good. Any trade deal would have to be negotiated and then signed off by Congress. A long process. In the meantime, there is no knowing what he might do and what might unfold in the US itself. I so think it will be worth avoiding for a while after he is inaugurated. There will undoubtedly be significant trouble in the cities.

    You are predicting riots if he is elected?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    If Trump does do it, he has an awful lot to thank Mike Pence for - particularly wrt Utah and Arizona I think.
  • Options
    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    And again....

    In two earlier trials in 2014, codenamed Operation Brooke, 14 men were jailed for more than 100 years. The three convicted defendants in Operation Button - Sheikh and Abdulahi and Dahir - were also found guilty in Operation Brooke.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3894200/Three-members-Somali-sex-gang-trafficked-raped-subjected-British-schoolgirls-violent-horrible-abuse-jailed-32-years.html

    I think its important to know the "community" (I hate that word), have spoken out against it, because people often say " why is no one condemning it"

    In a statement issued through police, the Bristol Somali community said it was “deeply appalled” by the case. “Our deepest sympathy wholeheartedly goes out to the victims and their families who are undoubtedly experiencing extreme pain at the moment,” it said. “Our community, a Muslim and black minority ethnic community, in Bristol would like to underline that we sincerely condemn the nature of these crimes.”

    I know more needs to be done but a first step.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    The wave might be so big that demographics get washed away. That's what I fear.
    Hispanics may save the day. 69% absolutely certain to vote according to Luntz (quoting Pew).
    But 20% of them are breaking for Trump, so it might not be as positive as we hope.

    If Hillary was even 10% better we would already be in the clear. Bloody DNC idiots. They tied it up for her and now she's close to losing to the worst GOP candidate of all time.

    I am getting that familiar sinking feeling. It looks like Trump could do it. And that would be a catastrophe for the US and, by extension, us.

    Not for us necessarily, Trump's trade adviser has said he would do a trade deal with Brexit UK ahead of the EU in contrast to the pro-EU Hillary. The main beneficiaries of a Trump presidency would be Putin's Russia, Brexit UK and Netanyahu's Israel, the rest of the world would be better off under Hillary. I still think a Trump popular vote win is more likely than an electoral college win though
    Japanese nationalists are also looking forward to Trump.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    The wave might be so big that demographics get washed away. That's what I fear.
    Hispanics may save the day. 69% absolutely certain to vote according to Luntz (quoting Pew).
    But 20% of them are breaking for Trump, so it might not be as positive as we hope.

    If Hillary was even 10% better we would already be in the clear. Bloody DNC idiots. They tied it up for her and now she's close to losing to the worst GOP candidate of all time.

    I am getting that familiar sinking feeling. It looks like Trump could do it. And that would be a catastrophe for the US and, by extension, us.

    Not for us necessarily, Trump's trade adviser has said he would do a trade deal with Brexit UK ahead of the EU in contrast to the pro-EU Hillary. The main beneficiaries of a Trump presidency would be Putin's Russia, Brexit UK and Netanyahu's Israel, the rest of the world would be better off under Hillary. I still think a Trump popular vote win is more likely than an electoral college win though

    I am not sure being one of Trump America's three friends is going to do us a huge amount of good. Any trade deal would have to be negotiated and then signed off by Congress. A long process. In the meantime, there is no knowing what he might do and what might unfold in the US itself. I so think it will be worth avoiding for a while after he is inaugurated. There will undoubtedly be significant trouble in the cities.

    You are predicting riots if he is elected?
    "could"

    :-)
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    chestnut said:

    MTimT said:

    US Election Apocryphal Evidence:

    Just drove from home to a coffee shop - 8 miles through 4 villages and a mid-sized town. I passed many hundreds of homes. This is rural and exurbia. High-school football (very serious business - the local team won on Friday, pulling their first string team part way through the second quarter with a 48-0 lead in the bag), hunting and farming country. Should be solid Trump.

    The most notable thing is the almost complete dearth of lawn signs. One Trump, one Johnson, not a single Hillary. No US House or Senate signs. One Montgomery County Executive Board sign, 5 Education Board election signs. All the other lawn signs were for landscaping services, tutoring or day school.

    Yesterday, in Bethesda, which should be overwhelmingly Clinton, a similar story, but rather more signs than here.

    This has to be the lowest enthusiasm election ever - for both sides.

    Perhaps it reveals how reluctant the electorate are to be open about their loyalties and voting preference?
    Which isn't particularly surprising, given the narrative of extreme polarisation running for the past few months. It may not be true, but enough people fear what will happen if they show their colours openly in public.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    The wave might be so big that demographics get washed away. That's what I fear.
    Hispanics may save the day. 69% absolutely certain to vote according to Luntz (quoting Pew).
    But 20% of them are breaking for Trump, so it might not be as positive as we hope.

    If Hillary was even 10% better we would already be in the clear. Bloody DNC idiots. They tied it up for her and now she's close to losing to the worst GOP candidate of all time.

    I am getting that familiar sinking feeling. It looks like Trump could do it. And that would be a catastrophe for the US and, by extension, us.

    Not for us necessarily, Trump's trade adviser has said he would do a trade deal with Brexit UK ahead of the EU in contrast to the pro-EU Hillary. The main beneficiaries of a Trump presidency would be Putin's Russia, Brexit UK and Netanyahu's Israel, the rest of the world would be better off under Hillary. I still think a Trump popular vote win is more likely than an electoral college win though

    I am not sure being one of Trump America's three friends is going to do us a huge amount of good. Any trade deal would have to be negotiated and then signed off by Congress. A long process. In the meantime, there is no knowing what he might do and what might unfold in the US itself. I so think it will be worth avoiding for a while after he is inaugurated. There will undoubtedly be significant trouble in the cities.

    You are predicting riots if he is elected?
    "could"

    :-)
    Hm? Southam said "undoubtedly".. unless I am missing something obvious!
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,237
    chestnut said:

    MTimT said:

    US Election Apocryphal Evidence:

    Just drove from home to a coffee shop - 8 miles through 4 villages and a mid-sized town. I passed many hundreds of homes. This is rural and exurbia. High-school football (very serious business - the local team won on Friday, pulling their first string team part way through the second quarter with a 48-0 lead in the bag), hunting and farming country. Should be solid Trump.

    The most notable thing is the almost complete dearth of lawn signs. One Trump, one Johnson, not a single Hillary. No US House or Senate signs. One Montgomery County Executive Board sign, 5 Education Board election signs. All the other lawn signs were for landscaping services, tutoring or day school.

    Yesterday, in Bethesda, which should be overwhelmingly Clinton, a similar story, but rather more signs than here.

    This has to be the lowest enthusiasm election ever - for both sides.

    Perhaps it reveals how reluctant the electorate are to be open about their loyalties and voting preference?
    Poster support at elections in Britain has been getting progressively less overt since the 80s in my view.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,146
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    The wave might be so big that demographics get washed away. That's what I fear.
    Hispanics may save the day. 69% absolutely certain to vote according to Luntz (quoting Pew).
    But 20% of them are breaking for Trump, so it might not be as positive as we hope.

    If Hillary was even 10% better we would already be in the clear. Bloody DNC idiots. They tied it up for her and now she's close to losing to the worst GOP candidate of all time.

    I am getting that familiar sinking feeling. It looks like Trump could do it. And that would be a catastrophe for the US and, by extension, us.

    Not for us necessarily, Trump's trade adviser has said he would do a trade deal with Brexit UK ahead of the EU in contrast to the pro-EU Hillary. The main beneficiaries of a Trump presidency would be Putin's Russia, Brexit UK and Netanyahu's Israel, the rest of the world would be better off under Hillary. I still think a Trump popular vote win is more likely than an electoral college win though

    I am not sure being one of Trump America's three friends is going to do us a huge amount of good. Any trade deal would have to be negotiated and then signed off by Congress. A long process. In the meantime, there is no knowing what he might do and what might unfold in the US itself. I so think it will be worth avoiding for a while after he is inaugurated. There will undoubtedly be significant trouble in the cities.

    You are predicting riots if he is elected?
    The period in between his election and his inauguration is likely to be incredibly fractious as the fear factor is ramped up and the US establishment tries to blame each other for the outcome.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,763
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    The wave might be so big that demographics get washed away. That's what I fear.
    Hispanics may save the day. 69% absolutely certain to vote according to Luntz (quoting Pew).
    But 20% of them are breaking for Trump, so it might not be as positive as we hope.

    If Hillary was even 10% better we would already be in the clear. Bloody DNC idiots. They tied it up for her and now she's close to losing to the worst GOP candidate of all time.

    I am getting that familiar sinking feeling. It looks like Trump could do it. And that would be a catastrophe for the US and, by extension, us.

    Not for us necessarily, Trump's trade adviser has said he would do a trade deal with Brexit UK ahead of the EU in contrast to the pro-EU Hillary. The main beneficiaries of a Trump presidency would be Putin's Russia, Brexit UK and Netanyahu's Israel, the rest of the world would be better off under Hillary. I still think a Trump popular vote win is more likely than an electoral college win though

    I am not sure being one of Trump America's three friends is going to do us a huge amount of good. Any trade deal would have to be negotiated and then signed off by Congress. A long process. In the meantime, there is no knowing what he might do and what might unfold in the US itself. I so think it will be worth avoiding for a while after he is inaugurated. There will undoubtedly be significant trouble in the cities.

    You are predicting riots if he is elected?
    "could"

    :-)
    Hm? Southam said "undoubtedly".. unless I am missing something obvious!
    It's america everythings bigger
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    edited November 2016
    SeanT said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    The wave might be so big that demographics get washed away. That's what I fear.
    Hispanics may save the day. 69% absolutely certain to vote according to Luntz (quoting Pew).
    But 20% of them are breaking for Trump, so it might not be as positive as we hope.

    If Hillary was even 10% better we would already be in the clear. Bloody DNC idiots. They tied it up for her and now she's close to losing to the worst GOP candidate of all time.

    I am getting that familiar sinking feeling. It looks like Trump could do it. And that would be a catastrophe for the US and, by extension, us.

    Not for us necessarily, Trump's trade adviser has said he would do a trade deal with Brexit UK ahead of the EU in contrast to the pro-EU Hillary. The main beneficiaries of a Trump presidency would be Putin's Russia, Brexit UK and Netanyahu's Israel, the rest of the world would be better off under Hillary. I still think a Trump popular vote win is more likely than an electoral college win though

    I am not sure being one of Trump America's three friends is going to do us a huge amount of good. Any trade deal would have to be negotiated and then signed off by Congress. A long process. In the meantime, there is no knowing what he might do and what might unfold in the US itself. I so think it will be worth avoiding for a while after he is inaugurated. There will undoubtedly be significant trouble in the cities.

    I've gone back to thinking Trump won't do much. He's still a New York liberal billionaire. He'll get tough on migration and Mexicans, but he won't do much that will damage big business.

    He will be nasty to the EU though. Who cares.

    PS I still don't think he can possibly win. But I said the same of LEAVE
    SCOTUS is the big one, and he'll stick a very social conservative in there I think. (He personally couldn't give a hoot whether they're liberal or conservative - so it'll basically be Pence's choice)
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    The Trump surge continues, now up to 29.4% on 538 (polls+forecast)!

    Its getting exciting.

    Are any of the Clinton lumpers getting the heeby jeebies yet ?
    Getting nervous, but holding on. Demographics.
    The wave might be so big that demographics get washed away. That's what I fear.
    Hispanics may save the day. 69% absolutely certain to vote according to Luntz (quoting Pew).
    But 20% of them are breaking for Trump, so it might not be as positive as we hope.

    If Hillary was even 10% better we would already be in the clear. Bloody DNC idiots. They tied it up for her and now she's close to losing to the worst GOP candidate of all time.

    I am getting that familiar sinking feeling. It looks like Trump could do it. And that would be a catastrophe for the US and, by extension, us.

    Not for us necessarily, Trump's trade adviser has said he would do a trade deal with Brexit UK ahead of the EU in contrast to the pro-EU Hillary. The main beneficiaries of a Trump presidency would be Putin's Russia, Brexit UK and Netanyahu's Israel, the rest of the world would be better off under Hillary. I still think a Trump popular vote win is more likely than an electoral college win though

    I am not sure being one of Trump America's three friends is going to do us a huge amount of good. Any trade deal would have to be negotiated and then signed off by Congress. A long process. In the meantime, there is no knowing what he might do and what might unfold in the US itself. I so think it will be worth avoiding for a while after he is inaugurated. There will undoubtedly be significant trouble in the cities.

    You are predicting riots if he is elected?
    "could"

    :-)
    Hm? Southam said "undoubtedly".. unless I am missing something obvious!
    It's america everythings bigger
    Hm.. that's why I'm having no luck...


    I'll get my coat :D
  • Options
    Mr. T, I think that's pretty accurate.
  • Options
    AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    SeanT said:

    taffys said:

    ''You were outcompeted by a woman I assume''

    Not really. I actually prefer women bosses. No testosterone. No 'mine's bigger than yours'. Much easier.

    I have women bosses - my editors and my agent, in journalism and thriller-writing, nearly all women. Very easy to work for.

    My agent has a theory that women make better leaders and men make better entrepreneurs. A glance at English royal history might say that's true, we've had three great queens out of seven or eight (depending how you define).

    Elizabeth One and Two, and Victoria.

    The percentage of great kings is much lower.
    What makes QE2 'great', other than her longevity? No question about the other two, natch.
This discussion has been closed.