That's more complicated, because Bayrou will probably stand if Sarkozy is the LR candidate.
Yes the results I posted downthread are Sarkozy & Bayrou
Ah ha, didn't see that. As an aside, it looks like Macron will sit it out if Juppe is the LR candidate...
what are you basing that on?
(Clearly a more difficult decision than Sarkozy)
I heard it from a very well connected German politician. Macron, one would assume, becomes PM under Juppe in that scenario.
Though would enable Le Pen to portray Juppe as leading an establishment stitch-up in round 2
That's irrelevent. Le Pen, and the FN, get virtually no transfer votes against Juppe or Macron or Bayrou.
If her opponent was Sarkozy, Hollande or Melechon then things might be different, but against Juppe, she goes up just 1-2% (from 28% to 30%) between the first and second rounds.
I don't think she will get transfers, but there will be a big increase in overall voters for her - in the regional elections in December, the FN went from 6mil in first round to 6.8mil in second, and that was just a regional. Her voters will turn out in the second round once the campaign really comes to a head.
She'll lose the vote but I'm not convinced it will be as close as it seems now against Juppe - she's objectively a better candidate than Trump is for example (less character flaws, more serious candidate, more charismatic, not someone you think will fire a nuke because of a rude tweet). Plus there are definitely shy FNers, I know a few!
FN preformance 1st > 2nd round was terrible. They missed several shots from 40% or more, as the presence of an FN candidate drove voters to the polls to vote against.
URL says it all really but there are some very sad people out there that have nothing better to do than to send Heathrow a complaint about noise every 90 minutes 7 days a week.
There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.
I would reduce Lab polling ratings by at least 2% and increase LDs by the same. Mainly due to the weighting adjustments based on GE2015 pre-Corbyn as Leader.
I would knock 10% off the Conservative poll figures and it would still be higher than they actually achieve in real elections
When are you going to learn, no one gives a shit about the local bin collection. They definitely don't care about local by elections.
Conservatives don't seem to care about parliamentary by elections either , strange though how they did when Cameron was their leader - you know the chap you stabbed in the back .
Were you asleep through the Witney campaign? Richmond is a scenario where the PM knows that Zac will vote with the government on everything except Heathrow vs letting rhe Lib Dems in through the middle. Maybe that's why you're so bitter, the PM has outmanoeuvred your idiot leader who has set expectations on Richmond so high that anything less than victory will be a failure.
Not only was I not asleep through the Witney campaign , I forecast on here exactly the fall in the Conservative vote share from 60% at GE 2015 to 45% . Strange how you Conservatives were happy acclaiming council by election gains when you were making them when stabbed in the back Cameron was leader but now dismiss the losses under May .
Little thing I was wondering - what if Labour completely imploded, nationally as they have in Scotland? I'm imagining the Tory election campaign will dig up plenty of known past misdemeanours on Corbyn & McDonnell, and they are probably holding some back. Combined with new boundaries, what if we ended up with something like:
Tory 470 SNP 50 Lab 40 Lib 10 UKIP 10 Others 20
Could parliament function like that, with the SNP acting as Her Majesty's Official Opposition for the whole of the UK? Constitutionally they wouldn't be in a position to act as a Government in waiting. While it would be the biggest free pass the Tories could dream of, it would polarise the country like never before thanks to FPTP effectively disenfranchising all non-Scots opposition.
No chance, Labour have about 120 seats they'd win even with 15% of the vote.
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.
No idea why the pollsters are still overstating Labour.. you ask any true centre Labour voter if they would actually vote Labour... they think Corbyn is bonkers and won't vote Labour whilsat he is leader.
There is no evidence to support that in actual elections - indeed Witney implied a national Labour vote of circa 31%.
hispanics seem higher though too offset that. And is that educated or noneducated white countys?
Hispanics + Black (2012) < Hispanics + Black (2016)
P(trump)|| Hispanic < P(Trump) || Black.
The problem for Hillary is that Hispanics aren't as usefully distributed to swing states as blacks. Hispanics tend to be concentrated in heavily Democrat states like California.
PS Although your thread was about Florida, which is a swing state with a large Hispanic population.
Weird that they're polling Minnesota but not Michigan or Wisconsin.
There are Survey Monkey polls for Michigan and Wisconsin on 538. Clinton leads of only 1 and 2 respectively, which suggests Nate Silver's mid-West Trump scenario may not be too far-fetched.
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.
I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?
£500? Is that an annual ticket? If so, you should count yourself lucky.
Monthly.
Is that daily to Paris on the Eurostar ? Touché !
Sheffield to Manchester Piccadilly.
£500 a month on rail travel is horrible.
But giving it some further thought, ~£23 for a peak time return from Sheffield to Manchester doesn't strike me as too bad. It's just a long commute.
That said, you can bring down the time of trans-Pennine travel as much as you like, but unless you also bring down the cost too you aren't going to get a Northern Powerhouse.
(I've been doing some work on this recently: the number of Manchester-Sheffield commutes is almost negligible. Manchester-Liverpool is pretty healthy, and Leeds-Sheffield is pretty healthy; Manchester-Leeds is - despite being the same distance and the most economically powerful pairing - about half of Manchester-Liverpool and Leeds-Sheffield. Manchester-Sheffield is about a fifth of Manchester-Leeds. Journeys between Manchester and Sheffield are slower per mile than between any other pair of British cities (this may be subject to some qualification that I can't remember). You are one of a select few.)
There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.
I would reduce Lab polling ratings by at least 2% and increase LDs by the same. Mainly due to the weighting adjustments based on GE2015 pre-Corbyn as Leader.
I would knock 10% off the Conservative poll figures and it would still be higher than they actually achieve in real elections
When are you going to learn, no one gives a shit about the local bin collection. They definitely don't care about local by elections.
Conservatives don't seem to care about parliamentary by elections either , strange though how they did when Cameron was their leader - you know the chap you stabbed in the back .
Were you asleep through the Witney campaign? Richmond is a scenario where the PM knows that Zac will vote with the government on everything except Heathrow vs letting rhe Lib Dems in through the middle. Maybe that's why you're so bitter, the PM has outmanoeuvred your idiot leader who has set expectations on Richmond so high that anything less than victory will be a failure.
Not only was I not asleep through the Witney campaign , I forecast on here exactly the fall in the Conservative vote share from 60% at GE 2015 to 45% . Strange how you Conservatives were happy acclaiming council by election gains when you were making them when stabbed in the back Cameron was leader but now dismiss the losses under May .
What is the Washington Post-ABC poll that RCP cite as "Clinton +1" (data collected 27-30 Oct)? There is a Washington Post-ABC poll with data collected 26-30 Oct that puts Trump in the lead (46-45). That poll also finds that among those who plan to vote on Election Day, who are a majority, Trump leads by 11 points (50-39); and among early voters, Clinton leads by 7 points (54-41). I thought the early voting figures would be biased towards Clinton, but that difference is huge.
Weird that they're polling Minnesota but not Michigan or Wisconsin.
There are Survey Monkey polls for Michigan and Wisconsin on 538. Clinton leads of only 1 and 2 respectively, which suggests Nate Silver's mid-West Trump scenario may not be too far-fetched.
538's estimate of Clinton's lead has decreased from 5.7% to 4.4% over the last four days. How much of that is the result of the FBI's intervention, and how many more days will it take before that is fully reflected in the polls?
Weird that they're polling Minnesota but not Michigan or Wisconsin.
They are and many others. I've included perceived battleground states and where the candidates have been recently and scheduled to be in the closing days.
538has HRC lead at 3.7 (now cast) - but if we order the polls (last date), adjusted by 538.
IBD - Clinton +3 LA Times : Clinton +1 ABC : Trump +2 The Times : Tie Morning Consult: Clinton +3
Net result: Clinton +1
These are the only ones including 30th and 31st October. The others end on the 25th or earlier.
ABC has Trump +1
Sorry - don't know what that happened (net effect Clinton +1.2 ) These are AFTER 538s treatment of the results due to innate republican/ democrat bias. If I had included gross figures
IBD - Clinton +1 LA Times : trump +4 ABC : Trump +1 The Times : Clinton +1 Morning Consult: Clinton +3
There's a vacuum wide open for the Lib Dems to fill, unfortunately for them Tim Farron couldn't fill a sandwich.
I would reduce Lab polling ratings by at least 2% and increase LDs by the same. Mainly due to the weighting adjustments based on GE2015 pre-Corbyn as Leader.
I would knock 10% off the Conservative poll figures and it would still be higher than they actually achieve in real elections
When are you going to learn, no one gives a shit about the local bin collection. They definitely don't care about local by elections.
Conservatives don't seem to care about parliamentary by elections either , strange though how they did when Cameron was their leader - you know the chap you stabbed in the back .
Were you asleep through the Witney campaign? Richmond is a scenario where the PM knows that Zac will vote with the government on everything except Heathrow vs letting rhe Lib Dems in through the middle. Maybe that's why you're so bitter, the PM has outmanoeuvred your idiot leader who has set expectations on Richmond so high that anything less than victory will be a failure.
Not only was I not asleep through the Witney campaign , I forecast on here exactly the fall in the Conservative vote share from 60% at GE 2015 to 45% . Strange how you Conservatives were happy acclaiming council by election gains when you were making them when stabbed in the back Cameron was leader but now dismiss the losses under May .
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.
I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?
I am a pensioner and I know a lot of other pensioners. I don't know of one who votes because of winter fuel payments, bus passes, TV Licences or even the triple lock. Every pensioner that I know is far more concerned about the future of their children/grandchildren than they are about themselves. I suspect they will all vote accordingly.
538has HRC lead at 3.7 (now cast) - but if we order the polls (last date), adjusted by 538.
IBD - Clinton +3 LA Times : Clinton +1 ABC : Trump +2 The Times : Tie Morning Consult: Clinton +3
Net result: Clinton +1
These are the only ones including 30th and 31st October. The others end on the 25th or earlier.
ABC has Trump +1
Sorry - don't know what that happened (net effect Clinton +1.2 ) These are AFTER 538s treatment of the results due to innate republican/ democrat bias.
So rather than letting the averaging take care of the biases in the various organisations' polls, 538 impose their own adjustments because they know better how to be unbiased?
I'm not sure how useful this is given that the FBI intervention is not yet fully reflected in the polls, but for the record these are today's probability distributions for the 538 (polls-only), Huffington Post and NYT models:
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.
I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?
I am a pensioner and I know a lot of other pensioners. I don't know of one who votes because of winter fuel payments, bus passes, TV Licences or even the triple lock. Every pensioner that I know is far more concerned about the future of their children/grandchildren than they are about themselves. I suspect they will all vote accordingly.
I believe that the vast majority of pensioners will continue to vote for whichever party they have tended to support in their earlier years.Few are likely to switch their votes in their mid-70s!
538has HRC lead at 3.7 (now cast) - but if we order the polls (last date), adjusted by 538.
IBD - Clinton +3 LA Times : Clinton +1 ABC : Trump +2 The Times : Tie Morning Consult: Clinton +3
Net result: Clinton +1
These are the only ones including 30th and 31st October. The others end on the 25th or earlier.
ABC has Trump +1
Sorry - don't know what that happened (net effect Clinton +1.2 ) These are AFTER 538s treatment of the results due to innate republican/ democrat bias. If I had included gross figures
IBD - Clinton +1 LA Times : trump +4 ABC : Trump +1 The Times : Clinton +1 Morning Consult: Clinton +3
Net result: Tie:
How do you get Tie? The average of your numbers is Clinton +2 In the adjusted numbers above, it is Clinton +1.8
No idea why the pollsters are still overstating Labour.. you ask any true centre Labour voter if they would actually vote Labour... they think Corbyn is bonkers and won't vote Labour whilsat he is leader.
Labour will have a floor to their support though, providing there's no party ready to replace them. Some will support the local candidate despite the national and others will support the party on the proviso that it's not going win (in their judgement), or in order to maximise opposition to the government. And that's beyond the donkey vote which is probably about 15%.
Are Labour being overstated at 26-28? Probably not given the weakness of the Lib Dems and UKIP. If one, never mind both, of those parties could get their act/s together, we could see Labour sub-20.
That's more complicated, because Bayrou will probably stand if Sarkozy is the LR candidate.
Yes the results I posted downthread are Sarkozy & Bayrou
Ah ha, didn't see that. As an aside, it looks like Macron will sit it out if Juppe is the LR candidate...
what are you basing that on?
(Clearly a more difficult decision than Sarkozy)
I heard it from a very well connected German politician. Macron, one would assume, becomes PM under Juppe in that scenario.
Though would enable Le Pen to portray Juppe as leading an establishment stitch-up in round 2
That's irrelevent. Le Pen, and the FN, get virtually no transfer votes against Juppe or Macron or Bayrou.
If her opponent was Sarkozy, Hollande or Melechon then things might be different, but against Juppe, she goes up just 1-2% (from 28% to 30%) between the first and second rounds.
For now in a run off who knows, it will certainly be tighter than 2002, Juppe lacks Chirac's charisma, Marine Le Pen is more appealing than her father, she could certainly get much of the working class vote against the establishment Juppe
538has HRC lead at 3.7 (now cast) - but if we order the polls (last date), adjusted by 538.
IBD - Clinton +3 LA Times : Clinton +1 ABC : Trump +2 The Times : Tie Morning Consult: Clinton +3
Net result: Clinton +1
These are the only ones including 30th and 31st October. The others end on the 25th or earlier.
ABC has Trump +1
Sorry - don't know what that happened (net effect Clinton +1.2 ) These are AFTER 538s treatment of the results due to innate republican/ democrat bias. If I had included gross figures
IBD - Clinton +1 LA Times : trump +4 ABC : Trump +1 The Times : Clinton +1 Morning Consult: Clinton +3
Net result: Tie:
How do you get Tie? The average of your numbers is Clinton +2 In the adjusted numbers above, it is Clinton +1.8
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.
I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?
I am a pensioner and I know a lot of other pensioners. I don't know of one who votes because of winter fuel payments, bus passes, TV Licences or even the triple lock. Every pensioner that I know is far more concerned about the future of their children/grandchildren than they are about themselves. I suspect they will all vote accordingly.
Maybe with age comes common sense? Alternatively maybe Labour voters die younger?
Fine. So why is a libertarian such as yourself almost always on the wrong side of the argument?
Rubbish. The globalist elites are losing, especially over the long term. One just needs to look at the state of European politics to realise how bad its going to get for them.
But in the end and despite internal and external arguments Jonathan Haidt supports Hillary and all her baggage corruption and bribery. An overt globalist to his core.
That's more complicated, because Bayrou will probably stand if Sarkozy is the LR candidate.
Yes the results I posted downthread are Sarkozy & Bayrou
Ah ha, didn't see that. As an aside, it looks like Macron will sit it out if Juppe is the LR candidate...
what are you basing that on?
(Clearly a more difficult decision than Sarkozy)
I heard it from a very well connected German politician. Macron, one would assume, becomes PM under Juppe in that scenario.
Though would enable Le Pen to portray Juppe as leading an establishment stitch-up in round 2
That's irrelevent. Le Pen, and the FN, get virtually no transfer votes against Juppe or Macron or Bayrou.
If her opponent was Sarkozy, Hollande or Melechon then things might be different, but against Juppe, she goes up just 1-2% (from 28% to 30%) between the first and second rounds.
For now in a run off who knows, it will certainly be tighter than 2002, Juppe lacks Chirac's charisma, Marine Le Pen is more appealing than her father, she could certainly get much of the working class vote against the establishment Juppe
Fine. So why is a libertarian such as yourself almost always on the wrong side of the argument?
Rubbish. The globalist elites are losing, especially over the long term. One just needs to look at the state of European politics to realise how bad its going to get for them.
The European Union is a nationalist-federalist construct, not a globalist one. You many not agree with it or have any affinity for it, but don't misunderstand it.
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.
I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?
No, they probably haven't. But all that is trumped by values. Pensioners, whether habitually Labour or Tory, are, I'd suggest, more likely to be socially conservative and quietly proud of their country, its traditions and culture than younger groups. Corbyn stands against everything that sort of person believes in. You can't buy patriotism.
The distance between Manchester and Sheffield is about 40 miles, the train takes about 50 minutes and the fare is about £18.
The distance between Brighton and London Victoria is about 50 miles, the train takes a bit over an hour (15 minutes slower than it was in the 1970s) and the fare is about £18.
I am not sure that the idea of uniquely poor railways in the North holds true.
Fine. So why is a libertarian such as yourself almost always on the wrong side of the argument?
Rubbish. The globalist elites are losing, especially over the long term. One just needs to look at the state of European politics to realise how bad its going to get for them.
The European Union is a nationalist-federalist construct, not a globalist one. You many not agree with it or have any affinity for it, but don't misunderstand it.
Fine. So why is a libertarian such as yourself almost always on the wrong side of the argument?
Rubbish. The globalist elites are losing, especially over the long term. One just needs to look at the state of European politics to realise how bad its going to get for them.
The European Union is a nationalist-federalist construct, not a globalist one. You many not agree with it or have any affinity for it, but don't misunderstand it.
Europe isn't a nation. So that's just bullshit.
The EU is not pro-world, it would trade the fate of the rest of the world for its own success in a heartbeat.
OGH "For sure Labour has got a lot of members but they are of no use whatsoever unless they are ready to help the party become an efficient election machine. "
In Richmond Park, Labour say they have 1,600 members. What are they going to do with them?
SPOTY looks like Andy Murray vs Ali Brownlee judging by Betfair.
Trott, Whitlock & Skelton the live outsiders.
If I was a proper gambler I'd have laid Andy Murray rather than backing Laura. Skelton is a pain because he's likely to be fishing in the same pond as Trott, but you never know. I don't get the Brownlee thing. To me it looked like cheating!
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.
I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?
No, they probably haven't. But all that is trumped by values. Pensioners, whether habitually Labour or Tory, are, I'd suggest, more likely to be socially conservative and quietly proud of their country, its traditions and culture than younger groups. Corbyn stands against everything that sort of person believes in. You can't buy patriotism.
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.
I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?
I am a pensioner and I know a lot of other pensioners. I don't know of one who votes because of winter fuel payments, bus passes, TV Licences or even the triple lock. Every pensioner that I know is far more concerned about the future of their children/grandchildren than they are about themselves. I suspect they will all vote accordingly.
Maybe with age comes common sense? Alternatively maybe Labour voters die younger?
Mr. Pulpstar, depends whether a bandwagon starts or not. I suspect it won't, but it is the type of thing that'll annoy a lot of people. Also, the field this year is packed. That'd make it easier for a protest vote to come through the middle.
Not saying it'll happen, just that it's a credible outside chance.
The distance between Manchester and Sheffield is about 40 miles, the train takes about 50 minutes and the fare is about £18.
The distance between Brighton and London Victoria is about 50 miles, the train takes a bit over an hour (15 minutes slower than it was in the 1970s) and the fare is about £18.
I am not sure that the idea of uniquely poor railways in the North holds true.
On reflection, my post was spectacularly lacking in clarity - I should have made clear that the speed of journeys between Manchester and Sheffield is for all trips, which is necessarily dominated by road.
Trans-Pennine rail trips ARE slow, given the size of the cities on either side - but I accept not uniquely so.
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.
I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?
There is a reason that the Tories have thrown money at pensioners and not at the 18s to 24s. They vote.
The distance between Manchester and Sheffield is about 40 miles, the train takes about 50 minutes and the fare is about £18.
The distance between Brighton and London Victoria is about 50 miles, the train takes a bit over an hour (15 minutes slower than it was in the 1970s) and the fare is about £18.
I am not sure that the idea of uniquely poor railways in the North holds true.
St Pancras to Brighton takes longer but the trains are much nicer.
No idea why the pollsters are still overstating Labour.. you ask any true centre Labour voter if they would actually vote Labour... they think Corbyn is bonkers and won't vote Labour whilsat he is leader.
There is no evidence to support that in actual elections - indeed Witney implied a national Labour vote of circa 31%.
No evidence, apart from Labour's council by-election losses and a Lab-Con swing in them during October. (And yes, that's despite the Tories losing seats too).
Fine. So why is a libertarian such as yourself almost always on the wrong side of the argument?
Rubbish. The globalist elites are losing, especially over the long term. One just needs to look at the state of European politics to realise how bad its going to get for them.
The European Union is a nationalist-federalist construct, not a globalist one. You many not agree with it or have any affinity for it, but don't misunderstand it.
Europe isn't a nation. So that's just bullshit.
The EU is not pro-world, it would trade the fate of the rest of the world for its own success in a heartbeat.
Due to a lack of time I had to skim read it. It deserves a proper read. My takes so far: I go along with their breakdown into globalisation and parochialism and I also agree parochialism, which is normally a pejorative term, isn't bad in itself. I partially go along with their take on nationalism, with the caveat that it only really works for people with one identity. Multiculturalism exists because many people have more than one identity. It isn't just racial. Speaking for myself I have identities as a Scot, a Brit, a European and an Edinburgh person. Nationalism has to accommodate all those identities to work for me.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. As we said that's not bad of itself, but we need to recognise what is actually happening. The problem is that we live in a globalised world, where success comes from dealing with the world as it is, not as we would like it to be. So Brexit is a dead-end for us, as we try to extract ourselves from that contradiction. As for how we got ourselves into this mess, I blame globalists, of which I am one. We didn't sell the benefits, nor did we support and empower those left behind to get on board.
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.
I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?
I am a pensioner and I know a lot of other pensioners. I don't know of one who votes because of winter fuel payments, bus passes, TV Licences or even the triple lock. Every pensioner that I know is far more concerned about the future of their children/grandchildren than they are about themselves. I suspect they will all vote accordingly.
I believe that the vast majority of pensioners will continue to vote for whichever party they have tended to support in their earlier years.Few are likely to switch their votes in their mid-70s!
That is rather a different argument to the one you advanced up-thread, and one for which I am am not sure that there is any evidence.
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.
I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?
No, they probably haven't. But all that is trumped by values. Pensioners, whether habitually Labour or Tory, are, I'd suggest, more likely to be socially conservative and quietly proud of their country, its traditions and culture than younger groups. Corbyn stands against everything that sort of person believes in. You can't buy patriotism.
I still do not believe that many lifelong Labour voters will suddenly start voting Tory in their 70s. Some may drift LibDem or even - God Forbid! - UKIP. That crossbreak just looks so obviously wrong and has not been confirmed by other pollsters.
Fine. So why is a libertarian such as yourself almost always on the wrong side of the argument?
Rubbish. The globalist elites are losing, especially over the long term. One just needs to look at the state of European politics to realise how bad its going to get for them.
The European Union is a nationalist-federalist construct, not a globalist one. You many not agree with it or have any affinity for it, but don't misunderstand it.
Europe isn't a nation. So that's just bullshit.
The EU harnesses two forces - the liberal globalist elite (Davos man), AND the genuine European Federalists, who want to build a superpower. That's why it is so durable for all its flaws.
What the Davos crowd don't realise is that the Federalists will stab them in the back just as they have done to the UK so many times. Just as @TheWhiteRabbit points out below. Traitors to the nations from which they originate, but loyal to the ideology of a European state. Weird bunch.
The distance between Manchester and Sheffield is about 40 miles, the train takes about 50 minutes and the fare is about £18.
The distance between Brighton and London Victoria is about 50 miles, the train takes a bit over an hour (15 minutes slower than it was in the 1970s) and the fare is about £18.
I am not sure that the idea of uniquely poor railways in the North holds true.
St Pancras to Brighton takes longer but the trains are much nicer.
Some Manchester to Sheffield trains are Class 185s which aren't too bad. I did Manchester to Leeds on a 185 back in July. Very quick journey, only stopped at Huddersfield.
Yesterday, I did Bristol to Taunton (avoiding Weston-Super-Mare), and on Friday I did Hooton to Ellesmere Port on Merseyrail, as well as Ellesmere Port to Helsby (a train that only runs between 6am and 7am, and 3pm and 4 pm!).
Mr. Pulpstar, depends whether a bandwagon starts or not. I suspect it won't, but it is the type of thing that'll annoy a lot of people. Also, the field this year is packed. That'd make it easier for a protest vote to come through the middle.
Not saying it'll happen, just that it's a credible outside chance.
I find I'm a "drawbridge up" type of person rather than a "drawbridge down". I'm not afraid of "The Other".
But I have a "constrained" rather than "unconstrained" mind-set recognising how thin the veneer of civilised behaviour is, and the value of traditions, customs, laws etc in constraining behaviour.
I have a distrust of nationalism (or patriotism - my country right or wrong) for the same reason I distrust the behaviour of football supporters or religious ideologues. The passion of crowds disturbs me. It is like an uncontrollable animal. Look at the crowds who turn up for Trump (or Sanders or Corbyn or Le Pen).
EDIT So I am an open-minded internationalist who believes in the rule of law and distrusts demagogues - which is what makes me a LibDem.
SPOTY looks like Andy Murray vs Ali Brownlee judging by Betfair.
Trott, Whitlock & Skelton the live outsiders.
If I was a proper gambler I'd have laid Andy Murray rather than backing Laura. Skelton is a pain because he's likely to be fishing in the same pond as Trott, but you never know. I don't get the Brownlee thing. To me it looked like cheating!
I'm +49.01 Brownlee, +0.01 Murray +26.32 Field -68.30 Mo Farah & Anthony Joshua
Last year Sinfield and Hill got 2nd and 3rd.
I think Brownlee wins on the strength of
a) Yorkshire voting b) Dragging his brother across the line will touch parts Murray can't.
Frankly I don't believe those figures.Perhaps 75+ people online are more likely to be Tories but the idea that almost 3 out of 4 people in that age group vote Tory is nonsense.
Why? The Tories have spent the last six years looking after pensioners and the over-75s have benefited the most. They may be old, but they are not stupid. They know which way their bread is buttered.
I find it counterintuitive in that people who have been lifelong Labour voters are very unlikely to switch to the Tories.It is flatly contradicted by other polling evidence. BMG has Tory support in the 65+ group at under 50%.As for knowing how their bread is buttered , are you suggesting that such people will have forgotten who provided them with Winter Fuel Payments /Free Bus Passes and Free TV Licences?
I am a pensioner and I know a lot of other pensioners. I don't know of one who votes because of winter fuel payments, bus passes, TV Licences or even the triple lock. Every pensioner that I know is far more concerned about the future of their children/grandchildren than they are about themselves. I suspect they will all vote accordingly.
Maybe with age comes common sense? Alternatively maybe Labour voters die younger?
Senility and dementia also take hold in old age!
Not all are affected, some get there quicker than others and for some similar knock on effects equate to a starting position.
500 paid canvassers working in Florida for the Center for Community Change Action. The progressive group has spent the past four months targeting a very specific universe of 384,000 Florida Latinos.
No idea why the pollsters are still overstating Labour.. you ask any true centre Labour voter if they would actually vote Labour... they think Corbyn is bonkers and won't vote Labour whilsat he is leader.
There is no evidence to support that in actual elections - indeed Witney implied a national Labour vote of circa 31%.
No evidence, apart from Labour's council by-election losses and a Lab-Con swing in them during October. (And yes, that's despite the Tories losing seats too).
Council by elections need to be analysed in relation to base year from which the vacancy has occurred. Labour is still managing to gain some seats from the Tories - which on the basis of the national polls should not be happening at all. Re- Witney - on a two party swing basis it represented a 6.5% swing from Con to Lab!
SPOTY looks like Andy Murray vs Ali Brownlee judging by Betfair.
Trott, Whitlock & Skelton the live outsiders.
If I was a proper gambler I'd have laid Andy Murray rather than backing Laura. Skelton is a pain because he's likely to be fishing in the same pond as Trott, but you never know. I don't get the Brownlee thing. To me it looked like cheating!
I'm +49.01 Brownlee, +0.01 Murray +26.32 Field -68.30 Mo Farah & Anthony Joshua
Last year Sinfield and Hill got 2nd and 3rd.
I think Brownlee wins on the strength of
a) Yorkshire voting b) Dragging his brother across the line will touch parts Murray can't.
What if Murray becomes world number one next week? That would help him massively.
Comments
P(trump)|| Hispanic < P(Trump) || Black.
URL says it all really but there are some very sad people out there that have nothing better to do than to send Heathrow a complaint about noise every 90 minutes 7 days a week.
I might have missed it but -
What is your prediction of the Richmond result ?
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/793460158642982912
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
If they can be arsed enough to bother...
NM - Clinton 44 .. Trump 34 .. 987
TX - Clinton 41 .. Trump 47 .. 2,051
MN - Clinton 46 .. Trump 37 .. 773
NV - Clinton 43 .. Trump 42 .. 1,010
CO - Clinton 43 .. Trump 39 .. 1,532
IA - Clinton 40 .. Trump 45 .. 984
AZ - Clinton 43 .. Trump 44 .. 1,457
PA - Clinton 49 .. Trump 41 .. 2,255
VA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 38 .. 2,089
GA - Clinton 44 .. Trump 46 .. 2,665
NC - Clinton 47 .. Trump 44 .. 1,574
NH - Clinton 48 .. Trump 35 .. 659
OH - Clinton 40 .. Trump 45 .. 1,823
FL - Clinton 46 .. Trump 45 .. 2,809
UT - Clinton 30 .. Trump 33 .. McMullin 26
https://www.surveymonkey.com/elections/map?poll=sm-lv-cps
IBD - Clinton +3
LA Times : Clinton +1
ABC : Trump +2
The Times : Tie
Morning Consult: Clinton +3
Net result: Clinton +1
These are the only ones including 30th and 31st October. The others end on the 25th or earlier.
PS Although your thread was about Florida, which is a swing state with a large Hispanic population.
5/5 = 1.
C +1
C +1
C +1
C +1
C +1
Would give the same result, it is Clinton + 1.
But giving it some further thought, ~£23 for a peak time return from Sheffield to Manchester doesn't strike me as too bad. It's just a long commute.
That said, you can bring down the time of trans-Pennine travel as much as you like, but unless you also bring down the cost too you aren't going to get a Northern Powerhouse.
(I've been doing some work on this recently: the number of Manchester-Sheffield commutes is almost negligible. Manchester-Liverpool is pretty healthy, and Leeds-Sheffield is pretty healthy; Manchester-Leeds is - despite being the same distance and the most economically powerful pairing - about half of Manchester-Liverpool and Leeds-Sheffield. Manchester-Sheffield is about a fifth of Manchester-Leeds. Journeys between Manchester and Sheffield are slower per mile than between any other pair of British cities (this may be subject to some qualification that I can't remember). You are one of a select few.)
Oh Ho!
IBD - Clinton +1
LA Times : trump +4
ABC : Trump +1
The Times : Clinton +1
Morning Consult: Clinton +3
Net result: Tie:
http://www.humansandnature.org/culture-how-capitalism-changes-conscience
Today: PA, WI
Tommorow: Fl, Fl, Fl
Thursday: Fl, PA, NC, NC
Clinton Bands 538 Huff NYT ======================================== Under 250 17.86% 0.45% 6.42% 250-259 3.83% 0.49% 2.32% 260-269 4.61% 0.88% 3.11% 270-279 6.23% 2.75% 4.58% 280-289 5.26% 2.24% 4.88% 290-299 5.68% 3.77% 5.78% 300-309 5.02% 6.12% 5.72% 310-319 6.17% 9.27% 6.91% 320-329 6.06% 9.97% 9.01% 330-339 5.46% 10.09% 6.81% 340-349 6.45% 17.21% 8.97% 350-359 6.40% 18.19% 8.21% 360-369 5.53% 5.82% 6.05% 370-379 3.77% 4.34% 5.09% 380-389 2.72% 2.53% 3.83% 390-399 1.99% 2.85% 2.74% 400 or over 6.96% 3.03% 9.55% ======================================== Prob Clinton win 73.70% 98.18% 88.15% Implied fair value for spreads markets: Clinton ECVs 308.4 338.4 330.5 Clinton 270-up 49.8 68.7 64.3 Clinton 300-up 30.3 40.5 40.1 Clinton 330-up 15.9 17.1 21.2 Trump 270-up 11.1 0.2 3.7 Trump 300-up 5.1 0.0 1.4 Trump 330-up 2.0 0.0 0.5I wonder if he might get a boost to his chances from people pissed off over his ban.
In the adjusted numbers above, it is Clinton +1.8
Are Labour being overstated at 26-28? Probably not given the weakness of the Lib Dems and UKIP. If one, never mind both, of those parties could get their act/s together, we could see Labour sub-20.
Trott, Whitlock & Skelton the live outsiders.
The distance between Manchester and Sheffield is about 40 miles, the train takes about 50 minutes and the fare is about £18.
The distance between Brighton and London Victoria is about 50 miles, the train takes a bit over an hour (15 minutes slower than it was in the 1970s) and the fare is about £18.
I am not sure that the idea of uniquely poor railways in the North holds true.
In Richmond Park, Labour say they have 1,600 members. What are they going to do with them?
Not saying it'll happen, just that it's a credible outside chance.
Edited extra bit: by 'outside' I mean 1-2%.
Trans-Pennine rail trips ARE slow, given the size of the cities on either side - but I accept not uniquely so.
Brexit specifically is a decision to turn away from a global Britain to a parochial one. As we said that's not bad of itself, but we need to recognise what is actually happening. The problem is that we live in a globalised world, where success comes from dealing with the world as it is, not as we would like it to be. So Brexit is a dead-end for us, as we try to extract ourselves from that contradiction. As for how we got ourselves into this mess, I blame globalists, of which I am one. We didn't sell the benefits, nor did we support and empower those left behind to get on board.
Could be tight there.
Yesterday, I did Bristol to Taunton (avoiding Weston-Super-Mare), and on Friday I did Hooton to Ellesmere Port on Merseyrail, as well as Ellesmere Port to Helsby (a train that only runs between 6am and 7am, and 3pm and 4 pm!).
#Addiction
I find I'm a "drawbridge up" type of person rather than a "drawbridge down". I'm not afraid of "The Other".
But I have a "constrained" rather than "unconstrained" mind-set recognising how thin the veneer of civilised behaviour is, and the value of traditions, customs, laws etc in constraining behaviour.
I have a distrust of nationalism (or patriotism - my country right or wrong) for the same reason I distrust the behaviour of football supporters or religious ideologues. The passion of crowds disturbs me. It is like an uncontrollable animal. Look at the crowds who turn up for Trump (or Sanders or Corbyn or Le Pen).
EDIT So I am an open-minded internationalist who believes in the rule of law and distrusts demagogues - which is what makes me a LibDem.
+0.01 Murray
+26.32 Field
-68.30 Mo Farah & Anthony Joshua
Last year Sinfield and Hill got 2nd and 3rd.
I think Brownlee wins on the strength of
a) Yorkshire voting
b) Dragging his brother across the line will touch parts Murray can't.
https://twitter.com/mike_fabricant/status/793473254665097216
500 paid canvassers working in Florida for the Center for Community Change Action.
The progressive group has spent the past four months targeting a very specific universe of 384,000 Florida Latinos.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2016/11/01/daily-202-if-these-latinos-vote-hillary-clinton-will-probably-win-florida/5817cdcee9b69b6085905de2/
Re- Witney - on a two party swing basis it represented a 6.5% swing from Con to Lab!