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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If this analysis and trend of early voters is right then Clint

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,629

    weejonnie said:
    So they are applying for a warrant now.

    As I noted below, they've just opened a whole host of Fourth Amendment violation problems
    While that's true, it should be noted that the protections of Fourth Amendment have been significantly weakened by a number of SC decisions in recent years. Thomas in particular seems to dislike it?
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    Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited October 2016
    The news cycle element seems fairly significant now and there is just enough time left for one news cycle to switch and be dominated by new bad news for one of the two candidates. I'm not sure the news cycle explicitly adds votes to those avoiding the sh*t show at that time but it certainly threatens to depress the polling for the candidate who is on the receiving end.

    The curiosity is that, if you are to listen to the apparently highly sophisticated, and often left leaning, European commentators there just aren't enough dumb-ass white ignorant sorts alone for the GOP to succeed without crossing ethnic boundaries in their vote getting. Yet, here we are, there are apparently enough..or are there?

    Either we accept that Trump must have some wider support than meets the cartoon impression this side of the ocean seems to recognise..or there just isn't enough and the polls are missing something. Which is it?

    If the Dems can get the news moved on, and the fact that FBI can't really throw anything solid down on the table before election day because they will still be investigating might help, then they can ride this one out ok.

    On the offensive, they just have to keep playing the cards they have as loud and as relentlessly as possible and add the one that plenty know is there but hasn't really come out; Trump's links with Moscow. Where did the money come from that bailed out the Trump Organisation in the past? Harry Reid's letter to the FBI Director pushes this issue but it would be very helpful to Clinton if the full extent of Russian ownership of Trump came out.


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    Doug Schoen, Democratic pollster and friend of the Clintons for 40 years has just renounced his support on the basis that if she wins there could be a constitutional crisis.It is all unravelling very fast,
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,339


    How do you know whether I bet or how much ?.As it happens I was in Houston last week and experienced the election on the ground. I wonder how many of you have?

    Quite a few, I think. But as I found myself last year, even guessing the result in a single constituency from personal impressions is hard, never mind the entire United States.

    My impression FWIW is that the electorate is too polarised to shift much either way now, and Clinton is going to win. Wouldn't bet the farm on it though.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,249


    How do you know whether I bet or how much ?.As it happens I was in Houston last week and experienced the election on the ground. I wonder how many of you have?

    Quite a few, I think. But as I found myself last year, even guessing the result in a single constituency from personal impressions is hard, never mind the entire United States.

    My impression FWIW is that the electorate is too polarised to shift much either way now, and Clinton is going to win. Wouldn't bet the farm on it though.
    :+1:
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    I can't sleep tonight, it's too warm here, so I'm watching the excellent Milo speaking at UC Irvine

    http://www.breitbart.com/milo/2016/10/30/milo-slams-islam-fabulous-burka-thot-outfit/
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150
    Y0kel said:


    Either we accept that Trump must have some wider support than meets the cartoon impression this side of the ocean seems to recognise..or there just isn't enough and the polls are missing something. Which is it?

    Basically it's that most voters vote on party lines, and Trump is running as a Republican.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Hillary has only 3 confirmed events between now and the end of the campaign.
    Looks like its all over.

    Yes. Over for Trump.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    @TheScreamingEagles

    Thank you for the links below.

    viewcode said:



    Links?

    h ttps://twitter.com/BenChu_/status/785408575690735616
    h ttps://twitter.com/BenChu_/status/785408832986046464
    h ttps://twitter.com/BenChu_/status/785409148116725760
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,249
    surbiton said:

    Hillary has only 3 confirmed events between now and the end of the campaign.
    Looks like its all over.

    Yes. Over for Trump.
    No doubt she is leaving things open to a) be able to fly to a state that is borderline e.g. texas b) keep the enemy guessing.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,249

    Y0kel said:


    Either we accept that Trump must have some wider support than meets the cartoon impression this side of the ocean seems to recognise..or there just isn't enough and the polls are missing something. Which is it?

    Basically it's that most voters vote on party lines, and Trump is running as a Republican.
    Where is the cartoon impression? Most of us in UK think he is a completely absurd buffoon and we are baffled why he is the GOP candidate. But we still think (fear) he might win.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,794
    SeanT said:



    Blahblah blah fucking blah

    In the end it comes down to this: the EU came up with a Constitution for its superstate, it got voted down in referendums by two different countries, so they simply disguised it as a new Treaty, and forced it through parliaments, thus avoiding the expressed and explicit will of the people.

    The EU is a poisonous charade and a democratic fraud and it will never reform and that's why we have to leave. There is no debate to be had. There is no nuance. No argument. Everything else is trivia and footnotes. Get the fuck over it. We're OUT and I don't care if it costs us 20% of GDP.

    You LOST and we're OUT because the EU is a disgrace.

    I think you may have misunderstood the discussion. The point was not whether the UK was right or wrong to vote to leave. The discussion was whether Hannan's contention that VoteLeave did not cover immigration is credible, given the coverage of immigration by VoteLeave as evidenced by TSE's links.

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,249
    "Former federal prosecutors and high-ranking Department of Justice officials, including former Attorney General Eric Holder, penned an open letter criticizing FBI Director James Comey's handling of the latest development in the investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server."

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/attorney-general-holder-doj-officials-pen-letter-criticizing/story?id=43182627

    The US establishment is at total war.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    "Former federal prosecutors and high-ranking Department of Justice officials, including former Attorney General Eric Holder, penned an open letter criticizing FBI Director James Comey's handling of the latest development in the investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server."

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/attorney-general-holder-doj-officials-pen-letter-criticizing/story?id=43182627

    The US establishment is at total war.

    It isn't an edifying spectacle, that's for sure.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071
    AndyJS said:

    "Former federal prosecutors and high-ranking Department of Justice officials, including former Attorney General Eric Holder, penned an open letter criticizing FBI Director James Comey's handling of the latest development in the investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server."

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/attorney-general-holder-doj-officials-pen-letter-criticizing/story?id=43182627

    The US establishment is at total war.

    It isn't an edifying spectacle, that's for sure.
    Someone really needs to make America great again.
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    DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194

    Hillary has only 3 confirmed events between now and the end of the campaign.
    Looks like its all over.

    A quick look here says she's got more than three, six so far, and they don't usually announce their final week stuff until the final week.

    https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
    Maybe she'll smell the coffee and do a Challenor?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2016

    AndyJS said:

    "Former federal prosecutors and high-ranking Department of Justice officials, including former Attorney General Eric Holder, penned an open letter criticizing FBI Director James Comey's handling of the latest development in the investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server."

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/attorney-general-holder-doj-officials-pen-letter-criticizing/story?id=43182627

    The US establishment is at total war.

    It isn't an edifying spectacle, that's for sure.
    Someone really needs to make America great again.
    A pity Jimmy Carter and/or George HW Bush can't be brought back as potential candidates. They were presidents that were respected by most people even if they didn't agree with them.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited October 2016
    Morning all

    A little late to the event admittedly, but just read on the BBC the number of Clinton E-Mails found on Weiner’s computer, 650,000. – Bloody hell, looks like the entire state department cache was downloaded, no wonder the FBI director had no choice but to continue the investigation. - Time consuming to sift through the lot I'd imagine, could be very awkward.
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,150

    Morning all

    A little late to the event admittedly, but just read on the BBC the number of Clinton E-Mails found on Weiner’s computer, 650,000. – Bloody hell, looks like the entire state department cache was downloaded, no wonder the FBI director had no choice but to continue the investigation. - Time consuming to sift through the lot I'd imagine, could be very awkward.

    Does the reporting state that all 650,000 emails were related to the State Department? The way I read it he had that many emails on his computer, and some undisclosed number of those may be related to the State Department.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited October 2016

    Morning all

    A little late to the event admittedly, but just read on the BBC the number of Clinton E-Mails found on Weiner’s computer, 650,000. – Bloody hell, looks like the entire state department cache was downloaded, no wonder the FBI director had no choice but to continue the investigation. - Time consuming to sift through the lot I'd imagine, could be very awkward.

    Does the reporting state that all 650,000 emails were related to the State Department? The way I read it he had that many emails on his computer, and some undisclosed number of those may be related to the State Department.
    Morning Mr Tokyo. - BBC makes no mention of the content etc, I don’t think anyone knows the email details yet and probably won’t for several weeks until the FBI have finished combing through them. – I was under the impression there were a couple of thousand e-mails on the Weiner laptop, the actual numbers being reported will come as a surprise to most I suspect, hence the tongue in cheek comment about downloading the entire S’Dept server.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,031

    Good - I hope the crook wins. Not the lunatic

    But Hillary is also a lunatic. And in all probability, Trump is a crook.
    Hilary a lunatic?

    On what do you base that assertion?
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    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191

    Morning all

    A little late to the event admittedly, but just read on the BBC the number of Clinton E-Mails found on Weiner’s computer, 650,000. – Bloody hell, looks like the entire state department cache was downloaded, no wonder the FBI director had no choice but to continue the investigation. - Time consuming to sift through the lot I'd imagine, could be very awkward.

    Does the reporting state that all 650,000 emails were related to the State Department? The way I read it he had that many emails on his computer, and some undisclosed number of those may be related to the State Department.
    Does the reporting state that all 650,000 emails were related to the State Department? The way I read it he had that many emails on his computer, and some undisclosed number of those may be related to the State Department.

    I cannot find this story but imagine that many laptops could contain thousands of emails (or be logged into accounts that contain thousands of emails).

    It is my understanding that Abedin acted as gatekeeper for Hillary's emails and that Hillary preferred for her emails to be printed out. The state system made printing difficult so Abedin overcame this by forwarding them to her @clintonemail.com or her @yahoo.com email addresses for that purpose.

    It therefore seems perfectly possible that Abedin's former partner's laptop contained access to Abedin's @yahoo account which contained thousands of emails, some of which may have been forwarded from Hillary's state account for printing purposes.

    It also appears that the FBI do not currently have a search warrant to access Abedin's emails and that is the hold up.

    More here... http://europe.newsweek.com/hillary-clinton-emails-fbi-comey-donald-trump-anthony-weiner-huma-abedin-514918?rm=eu

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283
    Worth a read as a view about what the Nissan deal suggests might be the government's strategy for Brexit

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/10/30/nissan-might-have-got-the-headlines-last-week-but-the-real-story-is-whats-bubbling-on-free-movement/
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    GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    For Edmund...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-31806907

    "According to Mrs Clinton, she sent or received 62,320 emails during her time as secretary of state. She, or her lawyers, have determined about half of those - 30,490, roughly 55,000 pages, were official and have been turned over to the State Department."
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,283
    New thread
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    JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    IanB2 said:

    Worth a read as a view about what the Nissan deal suggests might be the government's strategy for Brexit

    http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2016/10/30/nissan-might-have-got-the-headlines-last-week-but-the-real-story-is-whats-bubbling-on-free-movement/

    "or geographic, where parts of Britain are designated free movement areas."

    That's a ridiculous suggestion, surely?
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    edited October 2016
    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:

    MP_SE said:

    Trump was right to say Weiner was a "collector of information". That is a staggering number of emails. Altough I wouldn't be surprised if a significant number of them related to social media, dating and adult websites.

    650,000 emails is about 100 emails a day, every day, for 20 years.

    What. The. Actual. Fuck. Was. Weiner. Doing?
    Working with people who CYA-cc'ed each other a lot, I'd imagine.
    Working as an IT manager, in a place where everyone would CC the world, with loads of mailing lists, numerous automated server and help desk alerts, I couldn't get it much past 250-300 a day - and that took probably a third of the day just to wade through. The really senior managers got fewer, as people didn't CC them as much.

    650k emails seems implausible, unless he's never deleted so much as a round robin about office coffees from a decade ago!
    Don't forget as a congressman you've got a bunch of constituents and lobbyists emailing you all the time.

    Mate of mine said it was the most overwhelming aspect of taking up his new job - you could easily spend all day on email and not scratch the surface. It's why they all have private emails for people they want/need to talk to vs. the official ones that their office monitors

    (actually they have the "private" ones that they give to people who they want to think have been given direct access, and the "private private" ones that they don't share)
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Sandpit said:

    For me, the main reasons for voting Leave were: To get away from the EU Courts and supremacy of EU Law; to be free to make trade deals with expanding parts of the world, and the money we were throwing at an unaccountable bureaucracy. Staying in the Customs Union most likely achieves none of those aims, it's not really leaving the EU at all.

    It achieves the first and the third. It makes the second much less important compared with not being in the customs union.

    In any case, I think you are in a tiny minority of Leavers. Immigration was clearly the most important aspect of 'taking back control', with areas such as environmental law, health and safety law, employment law, the CAP, the CFP, the mythical 'EU army', etc being top issues. Trade deals are a side-issue, nice to have (and especially important if we don't have favourable terms with our largest existing export market), but really of little importance because we'd automatically get a lot of the benefit as EU members anyway (Canada, South Korea, and so on - perhaps even TTIP). In any case, the world's most successful exporter amongst all developed economies is in the EU, so it's hard to see how we can possibly be being held back significantly by membership.
    Presumably we'd still get a veto over any new treaty, so they can't be totally unbalanced towards the EU vs the UK?

    But I thought Clark said they wanted to stay in the customs union *for the motor industry* not the whole thing?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Jobabob said:

    Hillary has only 3 confirmed events between now and the end of the campaign.
    Looks like its all over.

    A quick look here says she's got more than three, six so far, and they don't usually announce their final week stuff until the final week.

    https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/
    Ohio tommorow, Florida Tuesday, Arizona Wednesday, North Carolina Thursday.

    She must be sick - sick of flying!
    The bullshit the Trump rampers on here come up with is getting even more desperate.
    On a betting site, it's a problem. Most of these pound-shop Stuart Truths never bet.
    How do you know whether I bet or how much ?.As it happens I was in Houston last week and experienced the election on the ground. I wonder how many of you have?
    Oh well, anecdote. That's that then folks.
This discussion has been closed.