It does seem unfortunate that the head of the FBI is a registered Republican. As this seems to be the new angle on the story it's very difficult to predict who if anyone it's likely to damage.
He was, but apparently is no longer. And remember, he was appointed by Obama, so he can't be that bad!
He's done Hillary a favour....just that shot in the arm her campaign needs a week to go against any kind of complacency.
Unless of course she's arrested and thrown in jail during the next week
Given most recent US polls have had Hillary's lead over Trump at slightly more than Obama's lead over Romney it is hardly surprising early voting so far has reflected 2012. However, as of today the RCP poll average has Hillary leading Trump by just 3.4% in a 4 way race, 0.5% less than Obama's margin over Romney with most of the polling done before the new emailgate news. Given 80% of Americans are yet to vote there is plenty left to run in this race http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
At this point the polls were giving Obama a 1 point lead over Romney.
And the biggest bomb before August 1945 was about 10 tonnes of TNT. Your point?
Just passing on the information so that people can make whatever use of it they wish.
We're all trying to gauge what the effect of the FBI news may be, and historical data may be helpful. I have to say that if the bomb thing is intended to be an analogy, I think it's a pretty poor one. It's fairly obvious that the power of bombs tends to increase over time because of technological advance. You'd need to make a case if you think the same is true of electoral volatility over the last decade.
Given most recent US polls have had Hillary's lead over Trump at slightly more than Obama's lead over Romney it is hardly surprising early voting so far has reflected 2012. However, as of today the RCP poll average has Hillary leading Trump by just 3.4% in a 4 way race, 0.5% less than Obama's margin over Romney with most of the polling done before the new emailgate news. Given 80% of Americans are yet to vote there is plenty left to run in this race http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
At this point the polls were giving Obama a 1 point lead over Romney.
There was no new dramatic revelations which had come out at that time unlike emailgate and minority turnout was much higher than expected by most pollsters. This year minority turnout will be lower, white working class turnout higher and as ABC have shown today Trump is doing better with minorities across the board than Romney was
It does seem unfortunate that the head of the FBI is a registered Republican. As this seems to be the new angle on the story it's very difficult to predict who if anyone it's likely to damage.
He was, but apparently is no longer. And remember, he was appointed by Obama, so he can't be that bad!
He's done Hillary a favour....just that shot in the arm her campaign needs a week to go against any kind of complacency.
Unless of course she's arrested and thrown in jail during the next week
This is 2016, I wouldn't rule anything out to be honest.
If Clinton is doubling her money on advertising in Florida it would suggest:-
1) She thinks she is or could fall behind and 2) She needs it.
2) There is a Senate race against Rubio to win that would be decisive for Dems to control the senate and the Dem analytic are showing that turnout will be key to win the seat.
Was Comey's letter intended to damage Trump? Well it passes the duck test with flying colours. The theorising about Comey being motivated above all by covering his own butt wouldn't satisfy Occam.
It does seem unfortunate that the head of the FBI is a registered Republican. As this seems to be the new angle on the story it's very difficult to predict who if anyone it's likely to damage.
He was, but apparently is no longer. And remember, he was appointed by Obama, so he can't be that bad!
That doesn't necessarily follow. Thomas Paine was appointed NASA's acting administrator (head of NASA) by Johnson in 1968. When Nixon became president in January 1969 he made Paine the administrator instead of choosing his own man.
Why?
Because if the moon landings failed, Nixon wanted a democrat appointee to take the blame!
If Clinton is doubling her money on advertising in Florida it would suggest:-
1) She thinks she is or could fall behind and 2) She needs it.
2) There is a Senate race against Rubio to win that would be decisive for Dems to control the senate and the Dem analytic are showing that turnout will be key to win the seat.
Given most recent US polls have had Hillary's lead over Trump at slightly more than Obama's lead over Romney it is hardly surprising early voting so far has reflected 2012. However, as of today the RCP poll average has Hillary leading Trump by just 3.4% in a 4 way race, 0.5% less than Obama's margin over Romney with most of the polling done before the new emailgate news. Given 80% of Americans are yet to vote there is plenty left to run in this race http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
At this point the polls were giving Obama a 1 point lead over Romney.
There was no new dramatic revelations which had come out at that time unlike emailgate and minority turnout was much higher than expected by most pollsters. This year minority turnout will be lower, white working class turnout higher and as ABC have shown today Trump is doing better with minorities across the board than Romney was
\
Thankfully though Mr Comey's intervention is going to stop the USA sleepwalking into a catastrophic Trump presidency a la Brexit where people thought the result was a foregone conclusion and voted accordingly. Obama may reflect that Comey was his best appointment...
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 3m3 minutes ago Lot of people starting to panic about Trump. But the fundamentals remain the same. He doesn't have path.
Constant repetition that 'he doesn't have a path' doesn't make it true or insightful. His path is that more people will vote for him than expected, or fewer will vote for Hillary. That's all it takes.
Yeh, the more support you have the wider the path.
4% behind, and Trump probably loses North Carolina, but gains Ohio and Iowa, taking him to 215 EC votes.
2% behind, he likely adds Florida and Maine 2 That's 245.
1% behind, he holds North Carolina and adds Nevada. That's 265.
Level-pegging, he wins either or both of New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, and the Presidency.
Despite all the emphasis on state-by-state analysis, isn't it still the case that the winner of the popular vote will almost certainly also win the electoral college?
And I'm not convinced anyone really knows whose vote is more efficiently distributed, in the event that's not the case.
According to 538 Trumps vote is more efficient because of his huge lead with older whites. He is more likely to 'win' even if he loses popular vote by 1%.
Yes, 538 does predict that. But on the other hand, if you apply a uniform swing to 538's state-by-state leads, they show Clinton winning when the popular votes are equal.
Given most recent US polls have had Hillary's lead over Trump at slightly more than Obama's lead over Romney it is hardly surprising early voting so far has reflected 2012. However, as of today the RCP poll average has Hillary leading Trump by just 3.4% in a 4 way race, 0.5% less than Obama's margin over Romney with most of the polling done before the new emailgate news. Given 80% of Americans are yet to vote there is plenty left to run in this race http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
At this point the polls were giving Obama a 1 point lead over Romney.
There was no new dramatic revelations which had come out at that time unlike emailgate and minority turnout was much higher than expected by most pollsters. This year minority turnout will be lower, white working class turnout higher and as ABC have shown today Trump is doing better with minorities across the board than Romney was
\
Thankfully though Mr Comey's intervention is going to stop the USA sleepwalking into a catastrophic Trump presidency a la Brexit where people thought the result was a foregone conclusion and voted accordingly. Obama may reflect that Comey was his best appointment...
Why? Several final polls had Leave ahead, just most had Remain ahead and turnout in EU ref was 72%, it was not low turnout which did it for Remain and may do it for Hillary it was high turnout, especially from normally low voting sectors of the white working class
"Five complete Grand Slam bombs are preserved and displayed in the United Kingdom at the RAF Museum, London; Brooklands Museum; RAF Lossiemouth; Dumfries and Galloway Aviation Museum and the Battle of Britain Memorial Flight Visitors' Centre at RAF Coningsby."
Strange that I saw one last week at RAF Scampton, home of 617 squadron for the Dambuster raid.
If Clinton is doubling her money on advertising in Florida it would suggest:-
1) She thinks she is or could fall behind and 2) She needs it.
2) There is a Senate race against Rubio to win that would be decisive for Dems to control the senate and the Dem analytic are showing that turnout will be key to win the seat.
It's certainly a long shot, now. The Democrats outperformed their poll ratings by about 3% in most States in 2012, and won every marginal Senate seat, bar Nevada (aided by some bizarre Republican candidates). If there's a systemic polling error of that size this time round, they could win Florida, but otherwise I think Rubio's safe.
Given most recent US polls have had Hillary's lead over Trump at slightly more than Obama's lead over Romney it is hardly surprising early voting so far has reflected 2012. However, as of today the RCP poll average has Hillary leading Trump by just 3.4% in a 4 way race, 0.5% less than Obama's margin over Romney with most of the polling done before the new emailgate news. Given 80% of Americans are yet to vote there is plenty left to run in this race http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
At this point the polls were giving Obama a 1 point lead over Romney.
There was no new dramatic revelations which had come out at that time unlike emailgate and minority turnout was much higher than expected by most pollsters. This year minority turnout will be lower, white working class turnout higher and as ABC have shown today Trump is doing better with minorities across the board than Romney was
\
Thankfully though Mr Comey's intervention is going to stop the USA sleepwalking into a catastrophic Trump presidency a la Brexit where people thought the result was a foregone conclusion and voted accordingly. Obama may reflect that Comey was his best appointment...
It does seem unfortunate that the head of the FBI is a registered Republican. As this seems to be the new angle on the story it's very difficult to predict who if anyone it's likely to damage.
He was, but apparently is no longer. And remember, he was appointed by Obama, so he can't be that bad!
That doesn't necessarily follow. Thomas Paine was appointed NASA's acting administrator (head of NASA) by Johnson in 1968. When Nixon became president in January 1969 he made Paine the administrator instead of choosing his own man.
Why?
Because if the moon landings failed, Nixon wanted a democrat appointee to take the blame!
Or maybe Nixon thought that Paine was the best man for the job. Not everything has to be about politics.
Given most recent US polls have had Hillary's lead over Trump at slightly more than Obama's lead over Romney it is hardly surprising early voting so far has reflected 2012. However, as of today the RCP poll average has Hillary leading Trump by just 3.4% in a 4 way race, 0.5% less than Obama's margin over Romney with most of the polling done before the new emailgate news. Given 80% of Americans are yet to vote there is plenty left to run in this race http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
At this point the polls were giving Obama a 1 point lead over Romney.
There was no new dramatic revelations which had come out at that time unlike emailgate and minority turnout was much higher than expected by most pollsters. This year minority turnout will be lower, white working class turnout higher and as ABC have shown today Trump is doing better with minorities across the board than Romney was
\
Thankfully though Mr Comey's intervention is going to stop the USA sleepwalking into a catastrophic Trump presidency a la Brexit where people thought the result was a foregone conclusion and voted accordingly. Obama may reflect that Comey was his best appointment...
Why? Several final polls had Leave ahead, just most had Remain ahead and turnout in EU ref was 72%, it was not low turnout which did it for Remain and may do it for Hillary it was high turnout, especially from normally low voting sectors of the white working class
I might have to remind you that the overwhelming narrative pre Brexit was that Remain would win. 1/10 on at Betfair...slight clue. It wasn't the fact that remainers stayed at home....many anecdotally voted Brexit because they wanted to give a kick up the arse to Cameron. It is only geeks like us that studied all the polls.
Thankfully good old Comey's intervention will help push Hillary well over the line. There's not going to be many pro Hillary's wanting to give her a bit of kicking by voting Trump. If you were a conspiracy theorist you would think that Comey was on her payroll...doubtless Plato will find is the link....
If Clinton is doubling her money on advertising in Florida it would suggest:-
1) She thinks she is or could fall behind and 2) She needs it.
2) There is a Senate race against Rubio to win that would be decisive for Dems to control the senate and the Dem analytic are showing that turnout will be key to win the seat.
Aye, although there is a Brexit (lol, look at me comparing this to Brexit) like disconnect in recent polls of the 6 most recent 3 have Rubio at +10, +7, +8, i.e demolishing the opposition, while the other 3 have tie, tie Rubio +2.
It does seem unfortunate that the head of the FBI is a registered Republican. As this seems to be the new angle on the story it's very difficult to predict who if anyone it's likely to damage.
He was, but apparently is no longer. And remember, he was appointed by Obama, so he can't be that bad!
That doesn't necessarily follow. Thomas Paine was appointed NASA's acting administrator (head of NASA) by Johnson in 1968. When Nixon became president in January 1969 he made Paine the administrator instead of choosing his own man.
Why?
Because if the moon landings failed, Nixon wanted a democrat appointee to take the blame!
Or maybe Nixon thought that Paine was the best man for the job. Not everything has to be about politics.
The book I read made it seem like that was the main reason; it's also one reason why he did not last long after the initial landings.
Given most recent US polls have had Hillary's lead over Trump at slightly more than Obama's lead over Romney it is hardly surprising early voting so far has reflected 2012. However, as of today the RCP poll average has Hillary leading Trump by just 3.4% in a 4 way race, 0.5% less than Obama's margin over Romney with most of the polling done before the new emailgate news. Given 80% of Americans are yet to vote there is plenty left to run in this race http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
At this point the polls were giving Obama a 1 point lead over Romney.
There was no new dramatic revelations which had come out at that time unlike emailgate and minority turnout was much higher than expected by most pollsters. This year minority turnout will be lower, white working class turnout higher and as ABC have shown today Trump is doing better with minorities across the board than Romney was
As far as I can see the ABC poll doesn't give demographic breakdowns?
Given most recent US polls have had Hillary's lead over Trump at slightly more than Obama's lead over Romney it is hardly surprising early voting so far has reflected 2012. However, as of today the RCP poll average has Hillary leading Trump by just 3.4% in a 4 way race, 0.5% less than Obama's margin over Romney with most of the polling done before the new emailgate news. Given 80% of Americans are yet to vote there is plenty left to run in this race http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
At this point the polls were giving Obama a 1 point lead over Romney.
There was no new dramatic revelations which had come out at that time unlike emailgate and minority turnout was much higher than expected by most pollsters. This year minority turnout will be lower, white working class turnout higher and as ABC have shown today Trump is doing better with minorities across the board than Romney was
As far as I can see the ABC poll doesn't give demographic breakdowns?
No, it does.
'Trump has a 15-point advantage over Clinton among whites, while Clinton has 68 percent support in the latest results among nonwhites, vs. Obama's 80 percent among nonwhites in the 2012 exit poll. She's backed by 88 percent of blacks (average for a Democrat) and 60 percent of Hispanics (a bit less than average; 10 percent peel off to Johnson and Stein). A notable difference is nonwhites who are not black or Hispanic. Obama won them by 66-31 percent; it's a closer 45-40 percent, Clinton-Trump, in the tracking poll.' http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-trump-turnout-critical-poll/story?id=43159639
Given most recent US polls have had Hillary's lead over Trump at slightly more than Obama's lead over Romney it is hardly surprising early voting so far has reflected 2012. However, as of today the RCP poll average has Hillary leading Trump by just 3.4% in a 4 way race, 0.5% less than Obama's margin over Romney with most of the polling done before the new emailgate news. Given 80% of Americans are yet to vote there is plenty left to run in this race http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
At this point the polls were giving Obama a 1 point lead over Romney.
There was no new dramatic revelations which had come out at that time unlike emailgate and minority turnout was much higher than expected by most pollsters. This year minority turnout will be lower, white working class turnout higher and as ABC have shown today Trump is doing better with minorities across the board than Romney was
\
Thankfully though Mr Comey's intervention is going to stop the USA sleepwalking into a catastrophic Trump presidency a la Brexit where people thought the result was a foregone conclusion and voted accordingly. Obama may reflect that Comey was his best appointment...
Why? Several final polls had Leave ahead, just most had Remain ahead and turnout in EU ref was 72%, it was not low turnout which did it for Remain and may do it for Hillary it was high turnout, especially from normally low voting sectors of the white working class
I might have to remind you that the overwhelming narrative pre Brexit was that Remain would win. 1/10 on at Betfair...slight clue. It wasn't the fact that remainers stayed at home....many anecdotally voted Brexit because they wanted to give a kick up the arse to Cameron. It is only geeks like us that studied all the polls.
Thankfully good old Comey's intervention will help push Hillary well over the line. There's not going to be many pro Hillary's wanting to give her a bit of kicking by voting Trump. If you were a conspiracy theorist you would think that Comey was on her payroll...doubtless Plato will find is the link....
I can see the argument that this will make no difference.
But, I can't see any likelihood that this will boost support for Clinton.
If Clinton is doubling her money on advertising in Florida it would suggest:-
1) She thinks she is or could fall behind and 2) She needs it.
In Florida she's spending on an ad talking about the p*ssy-grabbing tape, right? But that's priced in by now. She needs to lay one on him, or more than one. "Put everything on the table, Comey" and "Remember P*ssygate" suggest she hasn't got much. I'll reconsider if she lands a right hook or uppercut tomorrow or Tuesday.
Given most recent US polls have had Hillary's lead over Trump at slightly more than Obama's lead over Romney it is hardly surprising early voting so far has reflected 2012. However, as of today the RCP poll average has Hillary leading Trump by just 3.4% in a 4 way race, 0.5% less than Obama's margin over Romney with most of the polling done before the new emailgate news. Given 80% of Americans are yet to vote there is plenty left to run in this race http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html
At this point the polls were giving Obama a 1 point lead over Romney.
There was no new dramatic revelations which had come out at that time unlike emailgate and minority turnout was much higher than expected by most pollsters. This year minority turnout will be lower, white working class turnout higher and as ABC have shown today Trump is doing better with minorities across the board than Romney was
\
Thankfully though Mr Comey's intervention is going to stop the USA sleepwalking into a catastrophic Trump presidency a la Brexit where people thought the result was a foregone conclusion and voted accordingly. Obama may reflect that Comey was his best appointment...
Why? Several final polls had Leave ahead, just most had Remain ahead and turnout in EU ref was 72%, it was not low turnout which did it for Remain and may do it for Hillary it was high turnout, especially from normally low voting sectors of the white working class
I might have to remind you that the overwhelming narrative pre Brexit was that Remain would win. 1/10 on at Betfair...slight clue. It wasn't the fact that remainers stayed at home....many anecdotally voted Brexit because they wanted to give a kick up the arse to Cameron. It is only geeks like us that studied all the polls.
Thankfully good old Comey's intervention will help push Hillary well over the line. There's not going to be many pro Hillary's wanting to give her a bit of kicking by voting Trump. If you were a conspiracy theorist you would think that Comey was on her payroll...doubtless Plato will find is the link....
Virtually no Remainers voted Cameron to give him 'a kick up the arse', LDs and middle class Labour voters overwhelmingly backed Remain. Those who may have done so were white working class Labour voters who had no love for the EU anyway
I've just given you a very compelling one...that it raises the spectre of a Trump presidency, Trump's unfavourability ratings are worse than Clinton's and people put a peg over their nose because they think there is a real and present threat that Trump will win which they really didn't a few days ago.
Trump is a more polarising figure than Hillary. Think about it a bit more and get back to me...
If Trump wins, shares will tank, right? Which way are the dollar and gold likely to go?
There will certainly be a kneejerk reaction pushing up the price of Gold NB Gold is sold in dollars so there may be an extra shift if the dollar falls.
Shares will tank as Trump has made clear that he wants companies to bring back foreign reserves to America and to hire American workers at higher wages than they can hire people from abroad. This could be exacerbated by fines and/ or sweetheart deals.
(IMHO this would be good for America as the money would start circulating in the USA economy rather than being drained off e.g. to China - but that is economics not politics)
But Clinton will definitely win - the WSJ said so.
Virtually no Remainers voted Cameron to give him 'a kick up the arse', LDs and middle class Labour voters overwhelmingly backed Remain. Those who may have done so were white working class Labour voters who had no love for the EU anyway
@HYFUD Did you read much of the fallout from Brexit? Many traditional labour voters never knew the position their party held..... that was the reason why 60 shadow cabinet members walked out on Corbyn. Many Tories who voted Brexit didn't realise they were effectively signing a death warrant for Cameron whom they liked.
As said, after Comey's hamfisted intervention, I doubt there are many Americans under any uncertainty about what this vote means.
I've just given you a very compelling one...that it raises the spectre of a Trump presidency, Trump's unfavourability ratings are worse than Clinton's and people put a peg over their nose because they think there is a real and present threat that Trump will win which they really didn't a few days ago.
Trump is a more polarising figure than Hillary. Think about it a bit more and get back to me...
This is on a par that the stock market falls whenever there is good news on the economy on the fear that the BoE will raise interest rates.
Virtually no Remainers voted Cameron to give him 'a kick up the arse', LDs and middle class Labour voters overwhelmingly backed Remain. Those who may have done so were white working class Labour voters who had no love for the EU anyway
@HYFUD Did you read much of the fallout from Brexit? Many traditional labour voters never knew the position their party held..... that was the reason why 60 shadow cabinet members walked out on Corbyn. Many Tories who voted Brexit didn't realise they were effectively signing a death warrant for Cameron whom they liked.
As said, after Comey's hamfisted intervention, I doubt there are many Americans under any uncertainty about what this vote means.
Traditional Labour voters who voted Leave did so to control immigration, kicking Cameron was an afterthought, some Leave voting Tories may have preferred Cameron to stay but they would still have voted Leave regardless
Charles - my wife is a registered Republican but could not vote for Trump nor Hillary so voted Jill Stein...go figure
One thing that should be sending a warning signal about the polls is that, in some cases, they seem to be out of trend with the data. Banging on about North Carolina again, the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll states that she leads 61-33 amongst those who voted early.
But if you look at the actual data for who has actually voted early in NC (which is to Saturday, so maybe out of kilter slightly), registered Democrats are 43%, Republicans are 31% and Unaffiliated at 25%. So, to have a 61-33 lead, HRC has to be keeping all the Democrat vote and hiving off a substantial proportion of the Republican and / or Unaffiliated votes. Now consider what we know about NC early voting:
- AA voting as a share is down 7pp (30% of all early voting to 23%); - Millennials are only 15% of in-person early voting (the main category); - For the 50% of unaffiliated voters who have voted early and where there is such data, 55% took part in the Republican primaries and 45% in the Democrat - For rural counties, 42% of early votes from those who are registered as Democrats - there has to be a possibility these are old-school Democrats who actually vote Republican.
So could the early votes be 61-33 in NC to HRC for real? Sure. Does the data on actual votes and their demographic / party breakdown suggest that is the case. Unlikely.
Virtually no Remainers voted Cameron to give him 'a kick up the arse', LDs and middle class Labour voters overwhelmingly backed Remain. Those who may have done so were white working class Labour voters who had no love for the EU anyway
@HYFUD Did you read much of the fallout from Brexit? Many traditional labour voters never knew the position their party held..... that was the reason why 60 shadow cabinet members walked out on Corbyn. Many Tories who voted Brexit didn't realise they were effectively signing a death warrant for Cameron whom they liked.
Cameron's ratings slumped badly in the referendum and he fell well below Boris's ratings, so the vast majority of the voters were not respecting him and would therefore be tempted to give him a kicking.
Virtually no Remainers voted Cameron to give him 'a kick up the arse', LDs and middle class Labour voters overwhelmingly backed Remain. Those who may have done so were white working class Labour voters who had no love for the EU anyway
@HYFUD Did you read much of the fallout from Brexit? Many traditional labour voters never knew the position their party held..... that was the reason why 60 shadow cabinet members walked out on Corbyn. Many Tories who voted Brexit didn't realise they were effectively signing a death warrant for Cameron whom they liked.
'Cameron's ratings slumped badly in the referendum and he fell well below Boris's ratings, so the vast majority of the voters were not respecting him and would therefore be tempted to give him a kicking.'
That does not change the fact middle class Labour and LD voters still overwhelmingly voted Remain despite Cameron, it was white working class Labour voters who combined the opportunity to vote to control immigration with the chance to kick Cameron
Virtually no Remainers voted Cameron to give him 'a kick up the arse', LDs and middle class Labour voters overwhelmingly backed Remain. Those who may have done so were white working class Labour voters who had no love for the EU anyway
@HYFUD Did you read much of the fallout from Brexit? Many traditional labour voters never knew the position their party held..... that was the reason why 60 shadow cabinet members walked out on Corbyn. Many Tories who voted Brexit didn't realise they were effectively signing a death warrant for Cameron whom they liked.
As said, after Comey's hamfisted intervention, I doubt there are many Americans under any uncertainty about what this vote means.
Traditional Labour voters who voted Leave did so to control immigration, kicking Cameron was an afterthought, some Leave voting Tories may have preferred Cameron to stay but they would still have voted Leave regardless
I'm not going too pedantic...and we could get into a much more detailed about the nuances of the Brexit vote which crossed party lines...but it is so much more simple in the USA; you get Trump or Clinton. Presumably in a highly polarised election, in a tight race (that is perceived as tightening now we have Comey's intervention) intuitively one would think the vote would harden around the least polarising candidate.
I cannot see how Comey's intervention softens Trump's unfavourability downside. Give me a compelling reason how it does that?
Clinton's average lead with RCP is currently 3.4 points but that includes a 7 day old CNBC poll giving her a 9 point lead. If that poll is, say, replaced by a 5 point lead, the average would come down to 2.9 points.
Seems a bit legalistic - if I was the HRC team, I would not latch onto it because it looks fairly desperate and cannot really it convincing the over 30% who are less likely to vote HRC. Likely to be taken as "yeah but it does not hide the fact there were more e-mails out there".
Democrat twisting under the knife. Considering how Obama suckered the IRS onto his leading opponents over the last 8 years, it is hardly unexpected.
Anyway - the original investigation was closed with the proviso it would be re-opened if new evidence emerged. If the FBI has been competent they would have subpoenad the laptop as a matter of course.
And of course this lap-top never existed according to evidence given under the protection of immunity.
Seems a bit legalistic - if I was the HRC team, I would not latch onto it because it looks fairly desperate and cannot really it convincing the over 30% who are less likely to vote HRC. Likely to be taken as "yeah but it does not hide the fact there were more e-mails out there".
Fruit of the poisonous tree old bean.
Has betting implications were she to become President and any potential impeachment
Virtually no Remainers voted Cameron to give him 'a kick up the arse', LDs and middle class Labour voters overwhelmingly backed Remain. Those who may have done so were white working class Labour voters who had no love for the EU anyway
@HYFUD Did you read much of the fallout from Brexit? Many traditional labour voters never knew the position their party held..... that was the reason why 60 shadow cabinet members walked out on Corbyn. Many Tories who voted Brexit didn't realise they were effectively signing a death warrant for Cameron whom they liked.
Cameron's ratings slumped badly in the referendum and he fell well below Boris's ratings, so the vast majority of the voters were not respecting him and would therefore be tempted to give him a kicking.
I voted remain despite being dismayed by the direction Cameron's government had started to follow. I think the Coalition government was much better than the Conservative Majority government. Cameron claimed he was a one nation tory yet did things that proved he was not one nation at all. Despite my initial scepticism of May she on domestic policy is far more one nation than Cameron ever proved. I kicked Cameron up the arse by voting Labour at the local elections for the first time in my life: it was a protest vote.
Reading that article TSE makes me glad that I chose economics over law at Uni.... FFS..you have to have a very strange kind of brain to be a lawyer....
Reading that article TSE makes me glad that I chose economics over law at Uni.... FFS..you have to have a very strange kind of brain to be a lawyer....
To be a lawyer, you don't just need a strange brain, most important is the lack of heart and morals.
I wonder if the emails in question on the Weiner system are some of those that had been received from HRC? These Emails had not been previously seen by the FBI because the sending servers were cleansed or phones ruined with the implementation of a high impact blunt object ? However Now they have the received emails at the other end rather than the sent ones so have access to the contents.
Or doesn't email work like that? I accept I don't really know if that's possible if one end its cleansed?
Good choice of photographer and her reaction sounds very appropriate. Hillary appears to be a very cool lady. I wish the British had someone as impressive. As for her opponent.....if only three Americans were going to vote for him I'd find it shocking.
Yes, her steely unflashy resolve is impressive. There's some evidence that voters like that in women politicians in particular (Thatcher, Merkel, May).
I could safely say in the UK the guy would be arrested. If I was his neighbour. I'd be very tempted to do his tyres and scrape those cars
There's a reason Trump attracts his supporters. His rhetoric, behaviour and beliefs set them free. That's why some on here are rooting for him too, of course.
Reading that article TSE makes me glad that I chose economics over law at Uni.... FFS..you have to have a very strange kind of brain to be a lawyer....
To be a lawyer, you don't just need a strange brain, most important is the lack of heart and morals.
Very good, and very quick TSE....
FWIW I love your little "ooh erghhh Madame" pun/innuendos in your articles....keep them coming
I could safely say in the UK the guy would be arrested. If I was his neighbour. I'd be very tempted to do his tyres and scrape those cars
There's a reason Trump attracts his supporters. His rrhetoric, behaviour and beliefs set them free. That's why some on here are rooting for him too, of course.
I'm pretty sure that he could be arrested under the anti-cross-burning type legislation, for this.
I wonder if the emails in question on the Weiner system are some of those that had been received from HRC? These Emails had not been previously seen by the FBI because the sending servers were cleansed or phones ruined with the implementation of a high impact blunt object ? However Now they have the received emails at the other end rather than the sent ones so have access to the contents.
Or doesn't email work like that? I accept I don't really know if that's possible if one end its cleansed?
That is indeed one possibility - email cc'd. Weiner gets copied in - gets the entire email chain.... or Weiner, being a scumbag, steals/borrows emails from his (ex) wifes email account to use for leverage or to gloat/slime over.
Clinton "loses" the emails. Phones wiped "with a cloth". Scumbag Boy still has his copy......
Seems a bit legalistic - if I was the HRC team, I would not latch onto it because it looks fairly desperate and cannot really it convincing the over 30% who are less likely to vote HRC. Likely to be taken as "yeah but it does not hide the fact there were more e-mails out there".
Fruit of the poisonous tree old bean.
Has betting implications were she to become President and any potential impeachment
Article full of ifs, buts and maybes. Finding Clinton emails while searching through Weiners email may of may not be problematic, according to whether or not they found them in a way that may or may not have gone against a finding in a previous court case.
On that basis every search which turns up evidence relating to another case may or may not be a 4th Amendment violation.
I could safely say in the UK the guy would be arrested. If I was his neighbour. I'd be very tempted to do his tyres and scrape those cars
There's a reason Trump attracts his supporters. His rhetoric, behaviour and beliefs set them free. That's why some on here are rooting for him too, of course.
Hate is not a preserve of the right Southam.
Politics in this country shows us that.
The lunatics are crawling out from under their stones all over the Western world.
Virtually no Remainers voted Cameron to give him 'a kick up the arse', LDs and middle class Labour voters overwhelmingly backed Remain. Those who may have done so were white working class Labour voters who had no love for the EU anyway
@HYFUD Did you read much of the fallout from Brexit? Many traditional labour voters never knew the position their party held..... that was the reason why 60 shadow cabinet members walked out on Corbyn. Many Tories who voted Brexit didn't realise they were effectively signing a death warrant for Cameron whom they liked.
As said, after Comey's hamfisted intervention, I doubt there are many Americans under any uncertainty about what this vote means.
Traditional Labour voters who voted Leave did so to control immigration, kicking Cameron was an afterthought, some Leave voting Tories may have preferred Cameron to stay but they would still have voted Leave regardless
I'm not going too pedantic...and we could get into a much more detailed about the nuances of the Brexit vote which crossed party lines...but it is so much more simple in the USA; you get Trump or Clinton. Presumably in a highly polarised election, in a tight race (that is perceived as tightening now we have Comey's intervention) intuitively one would think the vote would harden around the least polarising candidate.
I cannot see how Comey's intervention softens Trump's unfavourability downside. Give me a compelling reason how it does that?
Not quite true, if you don't like either you can vote for Johnson or Stein instead
When people say it would be funny if Trump won, just look at that photo. It would be a disaster. It would unleash carnage.
Carnage from whom? The Democrats most likely based on the fact that the left rioted after the 2010 election with no pretext to do so and constantly arranged demonstrations that usually turned violent.
It's funny but the right in countries don't seem to demonstrate violently - the last major ';right-wing' demonstration - the Countryside Alliance - even left people behind to tidy up.
Similarly when the EDL or whoever hold a march it always seems to be the left (UAF or the equivalent) who get arrested for violence.
In Amercia I can point you to a Republican office being torched and a frail homeless woman being beaten up for preventing Trump's 'star' from being damaged again.
Virtually no Remainers voted Cameron to give him 'a kick up the arse', LDs and middle class Labour voters overwhelmingly backed Remain. Those who may have done so were white working class Labour voters who had no love for the EU anyway
@HYFUD Did you read much of the fallout from Brexit? Many traditional labour voters never knew the position their party held..... that was the reason why 60 shadow cabinet members walked out on Corbyn. Many Tories who voted Brexit didn't realise they were effectively signing a death warrant for Cameron whom they liked.
Cameron's ratings slumped badly in the referendum and he fell well below Boris's ratings, so the vast majority of the voters were not respecting him and would therefore be tempted to give him a kicking.
I voted remain despite being dismayed by the direction Cameron's government had started to follow. I think the Coalition government was much better than the Conservative Majority government. Cameron claimed he was a one nation tory yet did things that proved he was not one nation at all. Despite my initial scepticism of May she on domestic policy is far more one nation than Cameron ever proved. I kicked Cameron up the arse by voting Labour at the local elections for the first time in my life: it was a protest vote.
Cameron signed his own death warrant. He bullied and lied to the decent people of this country. He had to go. Many wanted him to stay, but he went off piste, and he crashed and burned...if that is not mixing metaphors!
Comments
Unless of course she's arrested and thrown in jail during the next week
We're all trying to gauge what the effect of the FBI news may be, and historical data may be helpful. I have to say that if the bomb thing is intended to be an analogy, I think it's a pretty poor one. It's fairly obvious that the power of bombs tends to increase over time because of technological advance. You'd need to make a case if you think the same is true of electoral volatility over the last decade.
Meanwhile, what happened to the business between the New York attorney general and Trump concerning the Trump Foundation raising money in NY as a supposed charity without being registered? Schneiderman sent a notice of violation on 1 Oct, ordering the Foundation to file documents within 15 days. There's been nothing that I know of in the media about whether Trump met the deadline or not.
Could that be two offices "helping" Trump? It seems to me that Trump is turning this around.
Why?
Because if the moon landings failed, Nixon wanted a democrat appointee to take the blame!
Looks like a tough nut!
Thankfully though Mr Comey's intervention is going to stop the USA sleepwalking into a catastrophic Trump presidency a la Brexit where people thought the result was a foregone conclusion and voted accordingly. Obama may reflect that Comey was his best appointment...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwNTjlEpJD0
http://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2016/10/30/kellyanne-conway-trump-rally-press-video-sotu.cnn
From your Wiki link ...
"Five complete Grand Slam bombs are preserved and displayed in the United Kingdom at the RAF Museum, London; Brooklands Museum; RAF Lossiemouth; Dumfries and Galloway Aviation Museum and the Battle of Britain Memorial Flight Visitors' Centre at RAF Coningsby."
Strange that I saw one last week at RAF Scampton, home of 617 squadron for the Dambuster raid.
Perhaps Wiki needs an update?
Back when the FBI were cool.
3) She can afford it.
Gold always appreciates at times of risk and uncertainty.
Thankfully good old Comey's intervention will help push Hillary well over the line. There's not going to be many pro Hillary's wanting to give her a bit of kicking by voting Trump. If you were a conspiracy theorist you would think that Comey was on her payroll...doubtless Plato will find is the link....
'Trump has a 15-point advantage over Clinton among whites, while Clinton has 68 percent support in the latest results among nonwhites, vs. Obama's 80 percent among nonwhites in the 2012 exit poll. She's backed by 88 percent of blacks (average for a Democrat) and 60 percent of Hispanics (a bit less than average; 10 percent peel off to Johnson and Stein). A notable difference is nonwhites who are not black or Hispanic. Obama won them by 66-31 percent; it's a closer 45-40 percent, Clinton-Trump, in the tracking poll.'
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-trump-turnout-critical-poll/story?id=43159639
But, I can't see any likelihood that this will boost support for Clinton.
But, I can't see any likelihood that this will boost support for Clinton.
@seanfear
I've just given you a very compelling one...that it raises the spectre of a Trump presidency, Trump's unfavourability ratings are worse than Clinton's and people put a peg over their nose because they think there is a real and present threat that Trump will win which they really didn't a few days ago.
Trump is a more polarising figure than Hillary. Think about it a bit more and get back to me...
Shares will tank as Trump has made clear that he wants companies to bring back foreign reserves to America and to hire American workers at higher wages than they can hire people from abroad. This could be exacerbated by fines and/ or sweetheart deals.
(IMHO this would be good for America as the money would start circulating in the USA economy rather than being drained off e.g. to China - but that is economics not politics)
But Clinton will definitely win - the WSJ said so.
Virtually no Remainers voted Cameron to give him 'a kick up the arse', LDs and middle class Labour voters overwhelmingly backed Remain. Those who may have done so were white working class Labour voters who had no love for the EU anyway
@HYFUD
Did you read much of the fallout from Brexit? Many traditional labour voters never knew the position their party held..... that was the reason why 60 shadow cabinet members walked out on Corbyn. Many Tories who voted Brexit didn't realise they were effectively signing a death warrant for Cameron whom they liked.
As said, after Comey's hamfisted intervention, I doubt there are many Americans under any uncertainty about what this vote means.
I've just given you a very compelling one...that it raises the spectre of a Trump presidency, Trump's unfavourability ratings are worse than Clinton's and people put a peg over their nose because they think there is a real and present threat that Trump will win which they really didn't a few days ago.
Trump is a more polarising figure than Hillary. Think about it a bit more and get back to me...
This is on a par that the stock market falls whenever there is good news on the economy on the fear that the BoE will raise interest rates.
Did you read much of the fallout from Brexit? Many traditional labour voters never knew the position their party held..... that was the reason why 60 shadow cabinet members walked out on Corbyn. Many Tories who voted Brexit didn't realise they were effectively signing a death warrant for Cameron whom they liked.
As said, after Comey's hamfisted intervention, I doubt there are many Americans under any uncertainty about what this vote means.
Traditional Labour voters who voted Leave did so to control immigration, kicking Cameron was an afterthought, some Leave voting Tories may have preferred Cameron to stay but they would still have voted Leave regardless
http://www.wsj.com/articles/laptop-may-include-thousands-of-emails-linked-to-hillary-clintons-private-server-1477854957
One thing that should be sending a warning signal about the polls is that, in some cases, they seem to be out of trend with the data. Banging on about North Carolina again, the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll states that she leads 61-33 amongst those who voted early.
But if you look at the actual data for who has actually voted early in NC (which is to Saturday, so maybe out of kilter slightly), registered Democrats are 43%, Republicans are 31% and Unaffiliated at 25%. So, to have a 61-33 lead, HRC has to be keeping all the Democrat vote and hiving off a substantial proportion of the Republican and / or Unaffiliated votes. Now consider what we know about NC early voting:
- AA voting as a share is down 7pp (30% of all early voting to 23%);
- Millennials are only 15% of in-person early voting (the main category);
- For the 50% of unaffiliated voters who have voted early and where there is such data, 55% took part in the Republican primaries and 45% in the Democrat
- For rural counties, 42% of early votes from those who are registered as Democrats - there has to be a possibility these are old-school Democrats who actually vote Republican.
So could the early votes be 61-33 in NC to HRC for real? Sure. Does the data on actual votes and their demographic / party breakdown suggest that is the case. Unlikely.
A state that was won by Obama by less than 1% in 2012
@FrankLuntz
Is America on the right track or wrong track?
CNN viewers
• 55% right
• 45% wrong
Fox News
• 14% right
• 81% wrong
Cameron's ratings slumped badly in the referendum and he fell well below Boris's ratings, so the vast majority of the voters were not respecting him and would therefore be tempted to give him a kicking.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/10/30/was-it-legal-for-the-fbi-to-expand-the-weiner-email-search-to-target-hillary-clintons-emails/?postshare=8561477850674117&tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.5b2fd3a83c72
That does not change the fact middle class Labour and LD voters still overwhelmingly voted Remain despite Cameron, it was white working class Labour voters who combined the opportunity to vote to control immigration with the chance to kick Cameron
I'm not going too pedantic...and we could get into a much more detailed about the nuances of the Brexit vote which crossed party lines...but it is so much more simple in the USA; you get Trump or Clinton. Presumably in a highly polarised election, in a tight race (that is perceived as tightening now we have Comey's intervention) intuitively one would think the vote would harden around the least polarising candidate.
I cannot see how Comey's intervention softens Trump's unfavourability downside. Give me a compelling reason how it does that?
https://twitter.com/TerraceImages/status/792816356508962816
Anyway - the original investigation was closed with the proviso it would be re-opened if new evidence emerged. If the FBI has been competent they would have subpoenad the laptop as a matter of course.
And of course this lap-top never existed according to evidence given under the protection of immunity.
Has betting implications were she to become President and any potential impeachment
I voted remain despite being dismayed by the direction Cameron's government had started to follow. I think the Coalition government was much better than the Conservative Majority government. Cameron claimed he was a one nation tory yet did things that proved he was not one nation at all. Despite my initial scepticism of May she on domestic policy is far more one nation than Cameron ever proved. I kicked Cameron up the arse by voting Labour at the local elections for the first time in my life: it was a protest vote.
https://twitter.com/mbhokie97/status/792528439282589696
Or doesn't email work like that? I accept I don't really know if that's possible if one end its cleansed?
FWIW I love your little "ooh erghhh Madame" pun/innuendos in your articles....keep them coming
Clinton "loses" the emails. Phones wiped "with a cloth". Scumbag Boy still has his copy......
Can he be charged with incitement?
On that basis every search which turns up evidence relating to another case may or may not be a 4th Amendment violation.
Politics in this country shows us that.
The lunatics are crawling out from under their stones all over the Western world.
Let's hope we get the Justice for Cecil brigade changing target and running him out of his neighbourhood
I cannot see how Comey's intervention softens Trump's unfavourability downside. Give me a compelling reason how it does that?
Not quite true, if you don't like either you can vote for Johnson or Stein instead
It's funny but the right in countries don't seem to demonstrate violently - the last major ';right-wing' demonstration - the Countryside Alliance - even left people behind to tidy up.
Similarly when the EDL or whoever hold a march it always seems to be the left (UAF or the equivalent) who get arrested for violence.
In Amercia I can point you to a Republican office being torched and a frail homeless woman being beaten up for preventing Trump's 'star' from being damaged again.
How the hell did it come to this?
......and maybe not even then.
You are aware that a non-trival number of such photos/incidents are staged, either to get attention, or to SWAT someone?
Perhaps we should try the old fashioned call-the-police approach...
Cameron signed his own death warrant. He bullied and lied to the decent people of this country. He had to go. Many wanted him to stay, but he went off piste, and he crashed and burned...if that is not mixing metaphors!
We might have to agree to disagree on this one.