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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If this analysis and trend of early voters is right then Clint

SystemSystem Posts: 12,265
edited October 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If this analysis and trend of early voters is right then Clinton is on course for victory

Clinton enjoys 15% lead in early voting Reuters/Ipsos poll finds https://t.co/xtM1L2Ozc9 pic.twitter.com/yoLU9ZNhlo

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,115
    Good - I hope the crook wins. Not the lunatic
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,907
    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited October 2016
    Pennsylvania - North Carolina - Colorado - Arizona - YouGov/CBS - Total Sample 4,074 - 26-28 Oct

    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 45
    CO - Clinton 42 .. Trump 39
    AZ - Clinton 42 .. Trump 44

    Note - Different post Dickileak poll shows little impact.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-poll-partisans-divide-on-news-of-fbi-emails/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,745
    It all depends what is par for early voting.

    If par is a 10% lead for the Democratic candidate, this is good news for Clinton. If it's 20%, it isn't.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,907
    More anti Gove stories:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3886166/Michael-Gove-s-11-year-old-son-wandering-corridors-B-B-ex-minister-left-SIX-HOURS-party-celebrities.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,586
    @TSE's last sentence puns really don't get any better.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,384
    edited October 2016
    williamglenn said:

    More anti Gove stories:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3886166/Michael-Gove-s-11-year-old-son-wandering-corridors-B-B-ex-minister-left-SIX-HOURS-party-celebrities.html

    A tad unfair. Time not spent with Govey and Vine should be a bonus for an impressionable child (or anyone for that matter).
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    Malmesbury said:

    Good - I hope the crook wins. Not the lunatic

    Trump is a crook as well as a lunatic.

  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    FPT
    weejonnie said:

    With all the overnight Florida votes in:

    By Mail: Republicans + 65400 (about 3.3%)
    In Person: Democrats + 42000 (about 2.6%)

    Compared to archives on the website, these are NOT good for the Republicans.

    2014 was relatively low turnout compared to a presidential election year, so the early vote then should be at the high end for Republicans. Look at the split between the numbers voting by mail and the numbers voting in-person in 2014, it won't be that mail-dominated in a presidential year.

    The Republican lead in mail is inching its way back up, but the Democrats aren't benefiting from the increased turnout in in-person voting as you would expect them to.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Malmesbury said:

    Good - I hope the crook wins. Not the lunatic

    It's pretty much "Votez escroc pas fascho" territory...
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited October 2016
    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - North Carolina - Colorado - Arizona - YouGov/CBS - Total Sample 4,074 - 26-28 Oct

    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 45
    CO - Clinton 42 .. Trump 39
    AZ - Clinton 42 .. Trump 44

    Note - Different post Dickileak poll shows little impact.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-poll-partisans-divide-on-news-of-fbi-emails/

    But it's not post-Dickileak if it's 26-28 Oct

    Edit; oh I see you're talking about a different poll.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,406
    Sandpit said:

    @TSE's last sentence puns really don't get any better.

    Really proud of that one.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Theuniondivvie said:

    williamglenn said:

    More anti Gove stories:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3886166/Michael-Gove-s-11-year-old-son-wandering-corridors-B-B-ex-minister-left-SIX-HOURS-party-celebrities.html

    A tad unfair. Time not spent with Govey and Vine should be a bonus for an impressionable child (or anyone for that matter).
    Poor little buggar having those two for your parents......
    Gove and Vine are the Christine and Neil of today. They'll be soon pitching up in UKIP soon enough.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    edited October 2016
    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    he isnt getting 11% of AA. Or 30% of hispanics
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I think the "it's already in the bag" approach is a deliberate strategy by the Clinton campaign to try and discourage historical non-voters from bothering. Fairly cynical.

    Admittedly that leaves me confused as to why @619 bothers... I don't think many of the historical non-voters on this board will vote this time either!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: my pre-race piece, containing literally three tips, is here [for those of you suffering heavy wallet-induced disjointed gait syndrome]:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/mexico-pre-race-2016.html
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    tyson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    williamglenn said:

    More anti Gove stories:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3886166/Michael-Gove-s-11-year-old-son-wandering-corridors-B-B-ex-minister-left-SIX-HOURS-party-celebrities.html

    A tad unfair. Time not spent with Govey and Vine should be a bonus for an impressionable child (or anyone for that matter).
    Poor little buggar having those two for your parents......
    Gove and Vine are the Christine and Neil of today. They'll be soon pitching up in UKIP soon enough.
    FPT

    Tainted and tarnished are in no way similar.

    Tainted comes from the concerto of "boat taint" and is a foul degradation of the underlying meat.

    Tarnish is just a surface panita and can easily be wiped clean (aka "acid bath")
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Charles said:

    I think the "it's already in the bag" approach is a deliberate strategy by the Clinton campaign to try and discourage historical non-voters from bothering. Fairly cynical.

    Admittedly that leaves me confused as to why @619 bothers... I don't think many of the historical non-voters on this board will vote this time either!

    Trump's strategy also seemed to be "we're way ahead", the polls are a lie, etc.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    F1: my pre-race piece, containing literally three tips, is here [for those of you suffering heavy wallet-induced disjointed gait syndrome]:
    http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/10/mexico-pre-race-2016.html

    I note you don't say where to get them! Or has every bookie limited your account to £1.50...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Charles said:

    I think the "it's already in the bag" approach is a deliberate strategy by the Clinton campaign to try and discourage historical non-voters from bothering. Fairly cynical.

    Admittedly that leaves me confused as to why @619 bothers... I don't think many of the historical non-voters on this board will vote this time either!

    Trump's strategy also seemed to be "we're way ahead", the polls are a lie, etc.
    Trump: "back the winner...be part of the revolution"!

    Clinton: "don't bother...he's a loser"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,115
    SouthamObserver said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Good - I hope the crook wins. Not the lunatic

    Trump is a crook as well as a lunatic.

    The lunacy is the important bit - not sure which would be worse in a crook vs crook comparison. Trump would probably be stupidly blatant about it....
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    https://twitter.com/calebjsaenz/status/792557975328227328
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Rabbit, sorry. All my tips are either Ladbrokes or Betfair, and usually Ladbrokes (odds on Hulkenberg since cut to 51, though 65/1 was available for 'Any Other Driver' [ie those outside the top 4] on Betfair).
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    North Carolina & Florida - Gravis - Samples 1,273 & 1,301 - 25-26 Oct

    NC - Clinton 49 .. Trump 47
    FL - Clinton 48 .. Trump 47

    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/29/exclusive-breitbartgravis-north-carolina-poll-clinton-trump-in-statistical-tie/

    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/10/29/exclusive-breitbartgravis-florida-poll-donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-in-statistical-tie/
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Maine CD 02 - Uni of NH - Sample 341 - 20-25 Oct

    Clinton 43 .. Trump 40

    http://www.pressherald.com/2016/10/30/clinton-extends-her-lead-in-latest-maine-sunday-telegram-poll-of-voters/
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Charles said:

    I think the "it's already in the bag" approach is a deliberate strategy by the Clinton campaign to try and discourage historical non-voters from bothering. Fairly cynical.

    Admittedly that leaves me confused as to why @619 bothers... I don't think many of the historical non-voters on this board will vote this time either!

    Yes, i think if there is to be any effect from Dickileaks it will be to motivate some previously apathetic voters because they think the race is closer. Though of course that can work both ways, though I would expect election day voters to be more Trumpy.
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    FPT
    timmo said:


    They were all out for 164 so therefore they lost all 10 wickets for 165

    You could also have fixed that to England lost their last 12 wickets for 165 as it happens.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Having these two candidates running is the best argument yet for making the POTUS a ceremonial job.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,551
    Thanks TSE - calmed me down a bit. I am still hoping for a landslide that takes Texas.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,387
    weejonnie said:

    Having these two candidates running is the best argument yet for making the POTUS a ceremonial job.

    Or they could follow Canada's lead when it comes to Head of State...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,115
    edited October 2016
    tyson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    williamglenn said:

    More anti Gove stories:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3886166/Michael-Gove-s-11-year-old-son-wandering-corridors-B-B-ex-minister-left-SIX-HOURS-party-celebrities.html

    A tad unfair. Time not spent with Govey and Vine should be a bonus for an impressionable child (or anyone for that matter).
    Poor little buggar having those two for your parents......
    Gove and Vine are the Christine and Neil of today. They'll be soon pitching up in UKIP soon enough.
    I enjoy your hypocrisy in embracing the Daily Mail - when it agrees with you. Thank you - good quality hypocrisy is a rare treat, rather like 1787 Lafitte....

    I remember from, some years ago, a lefty friend was very upset when Gove pointed out that (under the Blair government) the apparent increase in school attainment in the Afro Caribbean community was actually down to people getting rich and sending their children to private school - the group that stayed poor was doing worse than ever. Apparently her upset was that this fact was very negative - apparently as long as children from that community were *reported* to be doing well, all would have been well.

    It is not often you find that kind of self absorption, free range and unadulterated.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    Charles said:

    I think the "it's already in the bag" approach is a deliberate strategy by the Clinton campaign to try and discourage historical non-voters from bothering. Fairly cynical.

    Admittedly that leaves me confused as to why @619 bothers... I don't think many of the historical non-voters on this board will vote this time either!

    I'd say alleging that the vote is rigged is also pretty cynical.

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    brokenwheel said:

    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - North Carolina - Colorado - Arizona - YouGov/CBS - Total Sample 4,074 - 26-28 Oct

    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 45
    CO - Clinton 42 .. Trump 39
    AZ - Clinton 42 .. Trump 44

    Note - Different post Dickileak poll shows little impact.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-poll-partisans-divide-on-news-of-fbi-emails/

    But it's not post-Dickileak if it's 26-28 Oct

    Edit; oh I see you're talking about a different poll.
    Amazed that more Democrats are likely to support Clinton AFTER the announcement though.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    edited October 2016
    F1: hmm. Not advocating this (I think 3 tips is enough) but Rosberg is 5 to lead lap 1. Worth noting he is on the soft tyre whereas the three cars immediately behind him are on the supersoft. But 5 is a bit short for 2nd place when the pole-sitter has had multiple bad starts in a season.

    Edited extra bit: with Betfair. Any Other Driver now just 30.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    weejonnie said:

    Having these two candidates running is the best argument yet for making the POTUS a ceremonial job.

    I have to say that the longer I live in the US the more I feel a Parliamentary system is much superior to a Presidential one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    rottenborough said:

    Thanks TSE - calmed me down a bit. I am still hoping for a landslide that takes Texas.

    Is it wrong to be wondering about the chances of a literal landslide obliterating both candidates?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - North Carolina - Colorado - Arizona - YouGov/CBS - Total Sample 4,074 - 26-28 Oct

    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 45
    CO - Clinton 42 .. Trump 39
    AZ - Clinton 42 .. Trump 44

    Note - Different post Dickileak poll shows little impact.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-poll-partisans-divide-on-news-of-fbi-emails/

    Showing 5% of Democrats less likely to support Clinton as a result of the FBI statement. That's roughly the same as the 7% in another poll quoted earlier, so 2 or 3% of those polled.

    The trouble is, if 3% actually changed sides, on the current 538 model that would give Trump Colorado, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and put him well over the finishing line.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,384
    edited October 2016
    Malmesbury said:

    tyson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    williamglenn said:

    More anti Gove stories:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3886166/Michael-Gove-s-11-year-old-son-wandering-corridors-B-B-ex-minister-left-SIX-HOURS-party-celebrities.html

    A tad unfair. Time not spent with Govey and Vine should be a bonus for an impressionable child (or anyone for that matter).
    Poor little buggar having those two for your parents......
    Gove and Vine are the Christine and Neil of today. They'll be soon pitching up in UKIP soon enough.
    I enjoy your hypocrisy in embracing the Daily Mail - when it agrees with you. Thank you - good quality hypocrisy is a rare treat, rather like 1787 Lafitte....

    I remember from, some years ago, a lefty friend was very upset when Gove pointed out that (under the Blair government) the apparent increase in school attainment in the Afro Caribbean community was actually down to people getting rich and sending their children to private school - the group that stayed poor was doing worse than ever. Apparently her upset was that this fact was very negative - apparently as long as children from that community were *reported* to be doing well, all would have been well.

    It is not often you find that kind of self absorption, free range and unadulterated.

    Who's embracing the Daily Mail?

    Your Lafitte's corked, sport.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,551
    In case this passed PPbers by during the FBI outburst - get your popcorn on standby as Momentum people start to fight like cats:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2016/10/jon-lansman-branded-autocratic-momentum-splits-turn-acrimonious
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,384
    edited October 2016
    deleted
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    weejonnie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - North Carolina - Colorado - Arizona - YouGov/CBS - Total Sample 4,074 - 26-28 Oct

    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 45
    CO - Clinton 42 .. Trump 39
    AZ - Clinton 42 .. Trump 44

    Note - Different post Dickileak poll shows little impact.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-poll-partisans-divide-on-news-of-fbi-emails/

    But it's not post-Dickileak if it's 26-28 Oct

    Edit; oh I see you're talking about a different poll.
    Amazed that more Democrats are likely to support Clinton AFTER the announcement though.
    Perhaps it's not that surprising if they think the FBI are acting as stooges for Trump.

    I don't believe they are of course, but I can see how someone might think this, particularly because there's some dopey fringe candidate with bad hair, can't think of his name, who keeps on going about establishment cover-ups and other candidates being crooks. It's made the atmosphere quite febrile.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,920
    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,115
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Malmesbury said:

    tyson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    williamglenn said:

    More anti Gove stories:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3886166/Michael-Gove-s-11-year-old-son-wandering-corridors-B-B-ex-minister-left-SIX-HOURS-party-celebrities.html

    A tad unfair. Time not spent with Govey and Vine should be a bonus for an impressionable child (or anyone for that matter).
    Poor little buggar having those two for your parents......
    Gove and Vine are the Christine and Neil of today. They'll be soon pitching up in UKIP soon enough.
    I enjoy your hypocrisy in embracing the Daily Mail - when it agrees with you. Thank you - good quality hypocrisy is a rare treat, rather like 1787 Lafitte....

    I remember from, some years ago, a lefty friend was very upset when Gove pointed out that (under the Blair government) the apparent increase in school attainment in the Afro Caribbean community was actually down to people getting rich and sending their children to private school - the group that stayed poor was doing worse than ever. Apparently her upset was that this fact was very negative - apparently as long as children from that community were *reported* to be doing well, all would have been well.

    It is not often you find that kind of self absorption, free range and unadulterated.

    Who's embracing the Daily Mail?

    Your Lafitte's corked, sport.
    The original article quoted is from Der Sturmer.

    Oh, and since you didn't get the joke - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardy_Rodenstock
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Chris said:

    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - North Carolina - Colorado - Arizona - YouGov/CBS - Total Sample 4,074 - 26-28 Oct

    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 45
    CO - Clinton 42 .. Trump 39
    AZ - Clinton 42 .. Trump 44

    Note - Different post Dickileak poll shows little impact.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-poll-partisans-divide-on-news-of-fbi-emails/

    Showing 5% of Democrats less likely to support Clinton as a result of the FBI statement. That's roughly the same as the 7% in another poll quoted earlier, so 2 or 3% of those polled.

    The trouble is, if 3% actually changed sides, on the current 538 model that would give Trump Colorado, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and put him well over the finishing line.
    And 13% more likely to support her ....

    I'm minded to think that on balance there will be little polling fallout. The voters know that Clinton made an almighty balls up of her server. The insulation she has is called Donald Trump.

    We'll get some indications from the trackers and possible enthusiasm from early voting trends.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    edited October 2016
    "What would have been even more useful if there were comparisons to 2012."

    There is a comparison. The article says:
    Clinton’s lead among early voters is similar to the lead enjoyed by President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney at this point of the 2012 race, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken at the time.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,907
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    Yes but the trend (post second debate) is that Trump is consolidating Republican support and NeverTrumps are falling in line.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,920
    williamglenn said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    Yes but the trend (post second debate) is that Trump is consolidating Republican support and NeverTrumps are falling in line.
    I'm not sure that's true of my Republican friends. Many of the middle class women Republicans I know simply aren't going to vote this time around.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I might have been wrong, pre debate 1 might not have been the last chance to get value on Clinton .
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,115
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Good - I hope the crook wins. Not the lunatic

    It's pretty much "Votez escroc pas fascho" territory...
    Well, we got Sarkozy the last time. Then again, we got Carla Brunei as well. What was wrong with the Fascist again? :-) :-)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,406
    Chris said:

    "What would have been even more useful if there were comparisons to 2012."

    There is a comparison. The article says:
    Clinton’s lead among early voters is similar to the lead enjoyed by President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney at this point of the 2012 race, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken at the time.

    Thanks, I've amended the piece accordingly.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    The question is whether blue collar Dems or GOP establishment voters are more numerous. I think another factor is that GOP establishment voters are making a negative choice while blue collar Dems are making a positive choice, the enthusiasm levels might have an effect, especially in light of the latest email leaks.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,907
    edited October 2016
    Malmesbury said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Good - I hope the crook wins. Not the lunatic

    It's pretty much "Votez escroc pas fascho" territory...
    Well, we got Sarkozy the last time. Then again, we got Carla Brunei as well. What was wrong with the Fascist again? :-) :-)
    We got Chirac.

    Sarkozy won the following election against Segolene Royal after her debate performance - "No I will not calm down!" - sunk her.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,920
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    The question is whether blue collar Dems or GOP establishment voters are more numerous. I think another factor is that GOP establishment voters are making a negative choice while blue collar Dems are making a positive choice, the enthusiasm levels might have an effect, especially in light of the latest email leaks.
    Very true
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    JackW said:

    Chris said:

    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - North Carolina - Colorado - Arizona - YouGov/CBS - Total Sample 4,074 - 26-28 Oct

    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 45
    CO - Clinton 42 .. Trump 39
    AZ - Clinton 42 .. Trump 44

    Note - Different post Dickileak poll shows little impact.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-poll-partisans-divide-on-news-of-fbi-emails/

    Showing 5% of Democrats less likely to support Clinton as a result of the FBI statement. That's roughly the same as the 7% in another poll quoted earlier, so 2 or 3% of those polled.

    The trouble is, if 3% actually changed sides, on the current 538 model that would give Trump Colorado, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and put him well over the finishing line.
    And 13% more likely to support her ....
    Yes. But I have trouble imagining that reaction in anyone who isn't already a staunch supporter. It would seem irrational from a floating voter.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Utah - Hinckley Institute/Salt Lake Tribune - Sample 823 - 20-27 Oct

    Clinton 24 .. Trump 32 .. McMullin 30

    https://www.scribd.com/document/329381966/Tribune-Presidential-Poll
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Chris said:

    JackW said:

    Chris said:

    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - North Carolina - Colorado - Arizona - YouGov/CBS - Total Sample 4,074 - 26-28 Oct

    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 45
    CO - Clinton 42 .. Trump 39
    AZ - Clinton 42 .. Trump 44

    Note - Different post Dickileak poll shows little impact.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-poll-partisans-divide-on-news-of-fbi-emails/

    Showing 5% of Democrats less likely to support Clinton as a result of the FBI statement. That's roughly the same as the 7% in another poll quoted earlier, so 2 or 3% of those polled.

    The trouble is, if 3% actually changed sides, on the current 538 model that would give Trump Colorado, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and put him well over the finishing line.
    And 13% more likely to support her ....
    Yes. But I have trouble imagining that reaction in anyone who isn't already a staunch supporter. It would seem irrational from a floating voter.
    You think this is a rational election? .... :smile:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    Yes but the trend (post second debate) is that Trump is consolidating Republican support and NeverTrumps are falling in line.
    I'm not sure that's true of my Republican friends. Many of the middle class women Republicans I know simply aren't going to vote this time around.
    Yes, that's my experience as well. That's the divide of the negative vs positive choice I mentioned just now. The enthusiasm gap might hurt Hillary, especially if blue collar Dems are breaking to Trump to higher than expected proportions as some astute posters predicted. ;)
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    The question is whether blue collar Dems or GOP establishment voters are more numerous. I think another factor is that GOP establishment voters are making a negative choice while blue collar Dems are making a positive choice, the enthusiasm levels might have an effect, especially in light of the latest email leaks.
    Do we ever get a broad-spectrum likelihood to vote like we get in the UK? I mean we have 'likely voters' but they seem to be defined as those who voted previously.

    This would tell us a lot more about enthusiasm/ turnout etc.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,115
    williamglenn said:

    Malmesbury said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Good - I hope the crook wins. Not the lunatic

    It's pretty much "Votez escroc pas fascho" territory...
    Well, we got Sarkozy the last time. Then again, we got Carla Brunei as well. What was wrong with the Fascist again? :-) :-)
    We got Chirac.

    Sarkozy won the following election against Segolene Royal after her debate performance - "No I will not calm down!" - sunk her.
    Ah, Chirac - a man who spent more each year on extending his Chateau than his gross income (declared).....

    Mind you, he did tell Blair to his face he was rude and badly brought up.....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,384
    edited October 2016
    Malmesbury said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Malmesbury said:

    tyson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    williamglenn said:

    More anti Gove stories:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3886166/Michael-Gove-s-11-year-old-son-wandering-corridors-B-B-ex-minister-left-SIX-HOURS-party-celebrities.html

    A tad unfair. Time not spent with Govey and Vine should be a bonus for an impressionable child (or anyone for that matter).
    Poor little buggar having those two for your parents......
    Gove and Vine are the Christine and Neil of today. They'll be soon pitching up in UKIP soon enough.
    I enjoy your hypocrisy in embracing the Daily Mail - when it agrees with you. Thank you - good quality hypocrisy is a rare treat, rather like 1787 Lafitte....

    I remember from, some years ago, a lefty friend was very upset when Gove pointed out that (under the Blair government) the apparent increase in school attainment in the Afro Caribbean community was actually down to people getting rich and sending their children to private school - the group that stayed poor was doing worse than ever. Apparently her upset was that this fact was very negative - apparently as long as children from that community were *reported* to be doing well, all would have been well.

    It is not often you find that kind of self absorption, free range and unadulterated.

    Who's embracing the Daily Mail?

    Your Lafitte's corked, sport.
    The original article quoted is from Der Sturmer.

    Oh, and since you didn't get the joke - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hardy_Rodenstock
    Sorry, just had to change my underwear after severe rofpmsl-ing.

    Again, who is embracing the Daily Mail, the basis of your doubtless crushing point about lefty hypocrisy?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Just out of interest is there any data on swing back in US elections for POTUS? Obviously Clinton is a "fresh" candidate and not an incumbent but she is part of the democrat ticket.

    I hope Clinton wins and think like all elections it will be the ground game that wins it in each state. I did consider at one point putting some money on Clinton to win in Texas at 35 -1 just before Trumps negative comments on women hit the media. Even if Clinton does not win I could have laid it and come out with a profit! Bugger!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    JackW said:

    Chris said:

    JackW said:

    Chris said:

    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - North Carolina - Colorado - Arizona - YouGov/CBS - Total Sample 4,074 - 26-28 Oct

    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 45
    CO - Clinton 42 .. Trump 39
    AZ - Clinton 42 .. Trump 44

    Note - Different post Dickileak poll shows little impact.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-poll-partisans-divide-on-news-of-fbi-emails/

    Showing 5% of Democrats less likely to support Clinton as a result of the FBI statement. That's roughly the same as the 7% in another poll quoted earlier, so 2 or 3% of those polled.

    The trouble is, if 3% actually changed sides, on the current 538 model that would give Trump Colorado, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and put him well over the finishing line.
    And 13% more likely to support her ....
    Yes. But I have trouble imagining that reaction in anyone who isn't already a staunch supporter. It would seem irrational from a floating voter.
    You think this is a rational election? .... :smile:
    Fair point.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,115
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    And Trump is ensuring that Democrats who would have normally sat it out for Hillary in disgust will turn out to vote for her.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    weejonnie said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    The question is whether blue collar Dems or GOP establishment voters are more numerous. I think another factor is that GOP establishment voters are making a negative choice while blue collar Dems are making a positive choice, the enthusiasm levels might have an effect, especially in light of the latest email leaks.
    Do we ever get a broad-spectrum likelihood to vote like we get in the UK? I mean we have 'likely voters' but they seem to be defined as those who voted previously.

    This would tell us a lot more about enthusiasm/ turnout etc.
    I used the 2010 vote to reweight the 2015 to win a fair amount of money. The difference was that there was no insurgent in that election. I'm not sure that using only past voters in an election with an insurgent choice is particularly useful, it wouldn't have been in June, for example.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,586
    rottenborough said:

    In case this passed PPbers by during the FBI outburst - get your popcorn on standby as Momentum people start to fight like cats:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2016/10/jon-lansman-branded-autocratic-momentum-splits-turn-acrimonious

    LOL, accusing each other of being that most disgusting of creatures, the Blairite!

    Theresa May will be laughing all the way to the next election.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    ydoethur said:

    weejonnie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - North Carolina - Colorado - Arizona - YouGov/CBS - Total Sample 4,074 - 26-28 Oct

    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 45
    CO - Clinton 42 .. Trump 39
    AZ - Clinton 42 .. Trump 44

    Note - Different post Dickileak poll shows little impact.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-poll-partisans-divide-on-news-of-fbi-emails/

    But it's not post-Dickileak if it's 26-28 Oct

    Edit; oh I see you're talking about a different poll.
    Amazed that more Democrats are likely to support Clinton AFTER the announcement though.
    Perhaps it's not that surprising if they think the FBI are acting as stooges for Trump.

    I don't believe they are of course, but I can see how someone might think this, particularly because there's some dopey fringe candidate with bad hair, can't think of his name, who keeps on going about establishment cover-ups and other candidates being crooks. It's made the atmosphere quite febrile.
    Thinking Comey is trying to help Trump is hardly in "Sandy Hook was fake" territory.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    I know I keep going on about the Florida stats but i'm not the only one pointing out things aren't quite as good for the Dems as claimed.

    https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/792733751063121921

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/792741051358322688

    https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/792748973345820672

    It seems to me a block of educated/affluent and relatively liberal voters have come out early against Trump, so the figures look comparatively good for the Dems. But as we get closer to election day i'm not sure if that advantage will hold up.

    The glimmer of hope is getting more transfers from Reps and NPA, which IIRC is reltively more Hispanic than total electorate. I suspect Hillary will win early NPAs and lose election day NPAs.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    Malmesbury said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    And Trump is ensuring that Democrats who would have normally sat it out for Hillary in disgust will turn out to vote for her.
    I'm not sure that is true, with the amount of shit that has been poured onto Trump's head I'd have expected him to be in the low thirties by now. He's not, which means people don't seem to care. Overall I think Americans are so desensitised to sexual promiscuity among their political classes that it has made no difference, even though I think Trump is in the Bill Cosby category rather than Arnie or Newt.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    Dromedary said:

    ydoethur said:

    weejonnie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - North Carolina - Colorado - Arizona - YouGov/CBS - Total Sample 4,074 - 26-28 Oct

    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 45
    CO - Clinton 42 .. Trump 39
    AZ - Clinton 42 .. Trump 44

    Note - Different post Dickileak poll shows little impact.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-poll-partisans-divide-on-news-of-fbi-emails/

    But it's not post-Dickileak if it's 26-28 Oct

    Edit; oh I see you're talking about a different poll.
    Amazed that more Democrats are likely to support Clinton AFTER the announcement though.
    Perhaps it's not that surprising if they think the FBI are acting as stooges for Trump.

    I don't believe they are of course, but I can see how someone might think this, particularly because there's some dopey fringe candidate with bad hair, can't think of his name, who keeps on going about establishment cover-ups and other candidates being crooks. It's made the atmosphere quite febrile.
    Thinking Comey is trying to help Trump is hardly in "Sandy Hook was fake" territory.
    Agreed, but it's clearly wrong. I mean, they could have indicted Hilary, ended her career and forced the Democrats to go with San...

    Hang on a minute, maybe I was a bit hasty in ruling out collusion.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,745
    The_Taxman said:

    Just out of interest is there any data on swing back in US elections for POTUS? Obviously Clinton is a "fresh" candidate and not an incumbent but she is part of the democrat ticket.

    I hope Clinton wins and think like all elections it will be the ground game that wins it in each state. I did consider at one point putting some money on Clinton to win in Texas at 35 -1 just before Trumps negative comments on women hit the media. Even if Clinton does not win I could have laid it and come out with a profit! Bugger!

    If we're heading for a 2012 type result, there is no chance Clinton wins Texas, even if Trump does drop support there, and some other Red States. A 4% lead would probably mean she drops Iowa and Ohio, but picks up North Carolina, with Florida going down to the wire again.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,164
    MaxPB said:

    Malmesbury said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    And Trump is ensuring that Democrats who would have normally sat it out for Hillary in disgust will turn out to vote for her.
    I'm not sure that is true, with the amount of shit that has been poured onto Trump's head I'd have expected him to be in the low thirties by now. He's not, which means people don't seem to care. Overall I think Americans are so desensitised to sexual promiscuity among their political classes that it has made no difference, even though I think Trump is in the Bill Cosby category rather than Arnie or Newt.
    Ah, dear old Newt, with the remarkably original excuse that he cheated on multiple wives because he loved his country so much.

    They just don't make 'em like that any more.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited October 2016
    brokenwheel said:

    I know I keep going on about the Florida stats but i'm not the only one pointing out things aren't quite as good for the Dems as claimed.

    https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/792733751063121921

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/792741051358322688

    https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/792748973345820672

    It seems to me a block of educated/affluent and relatively liberal voters have come out early against Trump, so the figures look comparatively good for the Dems. But as we get closer to election day i'm not sure if that advantage will hold up.

    The glimmer of hope is getting more transfers from Reps and NPA, which IIRC is reltively more Hispanic than total electorate. I suspect Hillary will win early NPAs and lose election day NPAs.

    If someone doesn't often vote, or they have had a chance to register or vote in previous elections and haven't done it, but this time they're going to make sure they vote, they are more likely to vote on election day than early - and they're more likely to vote Trump. You're right about the bias in early voting figures.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,666
    edited October 2016
    Many thanks to @rcs1000, @Alistair, @edmundintokyo, @JosiasJessop and @viewcode for your kind advice in the previous thread. Lots of research and thinking to do!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited October 2016
    Purely of curiosity, I check our energy net demand figures. These show a 4.2% decrease in the year to date, compared with the same period last year. "Demand" in this instance takes account of some types of small unit electricity generation, i.e. these reduce demand rather than increase supply. I am sure the government would be very pleased to see these numbers continuing to fall.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,115
    ydoethur said:

    weejonnie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - North Carolina - Colorado - Arizona - YouGov/CBS - Total Sample 4,074 - 26-28 Oct

    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 45
    CO - Clinton 42 .. Trump 39
    AZ - Clinton 42 .. Trump 44

    Note - Different post Dickileak poll shows little impact.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-poll-partisans-divide-on-news-of-fbi-emails/

    But it's not post-Dickileak if it's 26-28 Oct

    Edit; oh I see you're talking about a different poll.
    Amazed that more Democrats are likely to support Clinton AFTER the announcement though.
    Perhaps it's not that surprising if they think the FBI are acting as stooges for Trump.

    I don't believe they are of course, but I can see how someone might think this, particularly because there's some dopey fringe candidate with bad hair, can't think of his name, who keeps on going about establishment cover-ups and other candidates being crooks. It's made the atmosphere quite febrile.
    The FBI are acting as stooges for ClintonTrump

    Wikileaks are heros dedicated to truthPutin owned scum

    I get confused. Is it Eastasia we've always been at war with?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,115
    Sandpit said:

    rottenborough said:

    In case this passed PPbers by during the FBI outburst - get your popcorn on standby as Momentum people start to fight like cats:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2016/10/jon-lansman-branded-autocratic-momentum-splits-turn-acrimonious

    LOL, accusing each other of being that most disgusting of creatures, the Blairite!

    Theresa May will be laughing all the way to the next election.
    Judean People's Front or People's Front of Judea?

    Must..... Purify....... The....... Revolution.......
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,551
    Dromedary said:

    brokenwheel said:

    I know I keep going on about the Florida stats but i'm not the only one pointing out things aren't quite as good for the Dems as claimed.

    https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/792733751063121921

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/792741051358322688

    https://twitter.com/electionsmith/status/792748973345820672

    It seems to me a block of educated/affluent and relatively liberal voters have come out early against Trump, so the figures look comparatively good for the Dems. But as we get closer to election day i'm not sure if that advantage will hold up.

    The glimmer of hope is getting more transfers from Reps and NPA, which IIRC is reltively more Hispanic than total electorate. I suspect Hillary will win early NPAs and lose election day NPAs.

    If someone doesn't often vote, or they have had a chance to register or vote in previous elections and haven't done it, but this time they're going to make sure they vote, they are more likely to vote on election day than early - and they're more likely to vote Trump. You're right about the bias in early voting figures.
    Clinton wins without FL or OH.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Malmesbury said:

    ydoethur said:

    weejonnie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - North Carolina - Colorado - Arizona - YouGov/CBS - Total Sample 4,074 - 26-28 Oct

    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 45
    CO - Clinton 42 .. Trump 39
    AZ - Clinton 42 .. Trump 44

    Note - Different post Dickileak poll shows little impact.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-poll-partisans-divide-on-news-of-fbi-emails/

    But it's not post-Dickileak if it's 26-28 Oct

    Edit; oh I see you're talking about a different poll.
    Amazed that more Democrats are likely to support Clinton AFTER the announcement though.
    Perhaps it's not that surprising if they think the FBI are acting as stooges for Trump.

    I don't believe they are of course, but I can see how someone might think this, particularly because there's some dopey fringe candidate with bad hair, can't think of his name, who keeps on going about establishment cover-ups and other candidates being crooks. It's made the atmosphere quite febrile.
    The FBI are acting as stooges for ClintonTrump

    Wikileaks are heros dedicated to truthPutin owned scum

    I get confused. Is it Eastasia we've always been at war with?
    Don't ask the Daily Telegraph!

    "Donald Trump's camp now scents blood"

    "If Trump wins, the brave can cash in on equity jitters"
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    The question is whether blue collar Dems or GOP establishment voters are more numerous. I think another factor is that GOP establishment voters are making a negative choice while blue collar Dems are making a positive choice, the enthusiasm levels might have an effect, especially in light of the latest email leaks.

    Not sure it is that much of a positive choice. The Trump vote is anti almost everything and clearly detests Hillary. He is getting the nihilistic vote.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    SouthamObserver said:

    Charles said:

    I think the "it's already in the bag" approach is a deliberate strategy by the Clinton campaign to try and discourage historical non-voters from bothering. Fairly cynical.

    Admittedly that leaves me confused as to why @619 bothers... I don't think many of the historical non-voters on this board will vote this time either!

    I'd say alleging that the vote is rigged is also pretty cynical.

    Not sure: I suspect it's more self-justification / preparing excuses for defeat.

    For it to be cynical it would have to be a deliberate strategy to get people fired up to vote (not sure it is, although I could see the argument both ways)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,270
    Apropos of nothing much, our house guest this week lives in Florida - and is appalled at the notion of Donald Trump as President. But then, her father was involved in setting up the United Nations, so she might not exactly be representative!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    The question is whether blue collar Dems or GOP establishment voters are more numerous. I think another factor is that GOP establishment voters are making a negative choice while blue collar Dems are making a positive choice, the enthusiasm levels might have an effect, especially in light of the latest email leaks.

    Not sure it is that much of a positive choice. The Trump vote is anti almost everything and clearly detests Hillary. He is getting the nihilistic vote.

    Positive in a sense of voting for a candidate and his or her ideas vs voting against the other candidate. You may not like the idea of blue collar Dems wanting what Trump is offering, but it is what's happening.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    They know Clinton & can't stand her. Voted Johnson (because voting is a sacred duty)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    ydoethur said:

    Dromedary said:

    ydoethur said:

    weejonnie said:

    brokenwheel said:

    JackW said:

    Pennsylvania - North Carolina - Colorado - Arizona - YouGov/CBS - Total Sample 4,074 - 26-28 Oct

    PA - Clinton 48 .. Trump 40
    NC - Clinton 48 .. Trump 45
    CO - Clinton 42 .. Trump 39
    AZ - Clinton 42 .. Trump 44

    Note - Different post Dickileak poll shows little impact.

    http://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-battleground-poll-partisans-divide-on-news-of-fbi-emails/

    But it's not post-Dickileak if it's 26-28 Oct

    Edit; oh I see you're talking about a different poll.
    Amazed that more Democrats are likely to support Clinton AFTER the announcement though.
    Perhaps it's not that surprising if they think the FBI are acting as stooges for Trump.

    I don't believe they are of course, but I can see how someone might think this, particularly because there's some dopey fringe candidate with bad hair, can't think of his name, who keeps on going about establishment cover-ups and other candidates being crooks. It's made the atmosphere quite febrile.
    Thinking Comey is trying to help Trump is hardly in "Sandy Hook was fake" territory.
    Agreed, but it's clearly wrong. I mean, they could have indicted Hilary, ended her career and forced the Democrats to go with San...

    Hang on a minute, maybe I was a bit hasty in ruling out collusion.
    I think Comey is the victim of a cognitive bias whereby you tend to the coutnerintuitive option in order to demonstrate your free choice/independence.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    Charles said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Charles said:

    I think the "it's already in the bag" approach is a deliberate strategy by the Clinton campaign to try and discourage historical non-voters from bothering. Fairly cynical.

    Admittedly that leaves me confused as to why @619 bothers... I don't think many of the historical non-voters on this board will vote this time either!

    I'd say alleging that the vote is rigged is also pretty cynical.

    Not sure: I suspect it's more self-justification / preparing excuses for defeat.

    For it to be cynical it would have to be a deliberate strategy to get people fired up to vote (not sure it is, although I could see the argument both ways)

    Saying that the only reason you lost is because the vote was rigged is cynical. Saying that the polls are rigged in order to suppress turnout because that's how you think you will win is also cynical. Not sure which of these two strategies Trump is following, but it is one of them.

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    BTW (ok it's Breitbart) - FBI confirm they are investigating the Clinton Foundation.

    I would say that, if true, that would be more damaging to HRC than the e-mails.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    The question is whether blue collar Dems or GOP establishment voters are more numerous. I think another factor is that GOP establishment voters are making a negative choice while blue collar Dems are making a positive choice, the enthusiasm levels might have an effect, especially in light of the latest email leaks.

    Not sure it is that much of a positive choice. The Trump vote is anti almost everything and clearly detests Hillary. He is getting the nihilistic vote.

    Positive in a sense of voting for a candidate and his or her ideas vs voting against the other candidate. You may not like the idea of blue collar Dems wanting what Trump is offering, but it is what's happening.

    I am afraid I disagree. What I see is a lot of Hillary hate. Just as I see as lot of Trump hate on the other side. There is a reason why the two candidates spend almost all their time attacking each other. It's how they get their votes.

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    The question is whether blue collar Dems or GOP establishment voters are more numerous. I think another factor is that GOP establishment voters are making a negative choice while blue collar Dems are making a positive choice, the enthusiasm levels might have an effect, especially in light of the latest email leaks.

    Not sure it is that much of a positive choice. The Trump vote is anti almost everything and clearly detests Hillary. He is getting the nihilistic vote.

    MAGA and Drain the Swamp aren't nihilistic sentiments.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,551
    Malmesbury said:

    Sandpit said:

    rottenborough said:

    In case this passed PPbers by during the FBI outburst - get your popcorn on standby as Momentum people start to fight like cats:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2016/10/jon-lansman-branded-autocratic-momentum-splits-turn-acrimonious

    LOL, accusing each other of being that most disgusting of creatures, the Blairite!

    Theresa May will be laughing all the way to the next election.
    Judean People's Front or People's Front of Judea?

    Must..... Purify....... The....... Revolution.......
    It was only a matter of time before the latest vehicle of the hard left descended into splits and internal rows etc. This is how it always ends.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    JackW said:

    Utah - Hinckley Institute/Salt Lake Tribune - Sample 823 - 20-27 Oct

    Clinton 24 .. Trump 32 .. McMullin 30

    https://www.scribd.com/document/329381966/Tribune-Presidential-Poll

    Come on Dems, do the right thing
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    The question is whether blue collar Dems or GOP establishment voters are more numerous. I think another factor is that GOP establishment voters are making a negative choice while blue collar Dems are making a positive choice, the enthusiasm levels might have an effect, especially in light of the latest email leaks.

    Not sure it is that much of a positive choice. The Trump vote is anti almost everything and clearly detests Hillary. He is getting the nihilistic vote.

    Positive in a sense of voting for a candidate and his or her ideas vs voting against the other candidate. You may not like the idea of blue collar Dems wanting what Trump is offering, but it is what's happening.

    I am afraid I disagree. What I see is a lot of Hillary hate. Just as I see as lot of Trump hate on the other side. There is a reason why the two candidates spend almost all their time attacking each other. It's how they get their votes.

    The difference of course is that Hillary hate is verbal - but Trump hate includes deliberate obstruction of people going to his speeches and kicking a defenceless black woman (Where is Hillary defending her BTW - I thought she was big in supporting women and minorities?) for protecting Trump's star.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,333
    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    The question is whether blue collar Dems or GOP establishment voters are more numerous. I think another factor is that GOP establishment voters are making a negative choice while blue collar Dems are making a positive choice, the enthusiasm levels might have an effect, especially in light of the latest email leaks.

    Not sure it is that much of a positive choice. The Trump vote is anti almost everything and clearly detests Hillary. He is getting the nihilistic vote.

    Positive in a sense of voting for a candidate and his or her ideas vs voting against the other candidate. You may not like the idea of blue collar Dems wanting what Trump is offering, but it is what's happening.

    I am afraid I disagree. What I see is a lot of Hillary hate. Just as I see as lot of Trump hate on the other side. There is a reason why the two candidates spend almost all their time attacking each other. It's how they get their votes.

    I think that's your vantage point. From the blue collar Dems vantage point it's voting to make America great again after years of decline in earnings and living standards, its voting for a President who says he won't be bullied on the world stage like Obama has been on numerous occasions. Trump comes with a lot of baggage, but there are a lot of people in America who are making a positive choice when they vote for Trump. You or I may not see those positives as important enough vs is negatives.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    weejonnie said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    The question is whether blue collar Dems or GOP establishment voters are more numerous. I think another factor is that GOP establishment voters are making a negative choice while blue collar Dems are making a positive choice, the enthusiasm levels might have an effect, especially in light of the latest email leaks.

    Not sure it is that much of a positive choice. The Trump vote is anti almost everything and clearly detests Hillary. He is getting the nihilistic vote.

    Positive in a sense of voting for a candidate and his or her ideas vs voting against the other candidate. You may not like the idea of blue collar Dems wanting what Trump is offering, but it is what's happening.

    I am afraid I disagree. What I see is a lot of Hillary hate. Just as I see as lot of Trump hate on the other side. There is a reason why the two candidates spend almost all their time attacking each other. It's how they get their votes.

    The difference of course is that Hillary hate is verbal - but Trump hate includes deliberate obstruction of people going to his speeches and kicking a defenceless black woman (Where is Hillary defending her BTW - I thought she was big in supporting women and minorities?) for protecting Trump's star.

    Hmmm- protestors have been attacked and abused at Trump events.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    The question is whether blue collar Dems or GOP establishment voters are more numerous. I think another factor is that GOP establishment voters are making a negative choice while blue collar Dems are making a positive choice, the enthusiasm levels might have an effect, especially in light of the latest email leaks.

    Not sure it is that much of a positive choice. The Trump vote is anti almost everything and clearly detests Hillary. He is getting the nihilistic vote.

    Positive in a sense of voting for a candidate and his or her ideas vs voting against the other candidate. You may not like the idea of blue collar Dems wanting what Trump is offering, but it is what's happening.

    I am afraid I disagree. What I see is a lot of Hillary hate. Just as I see as lot of Trump hate on the other side. There is a reason why the two candidates spend almost all their time attacking each other. It's how they get their votes.

    I think that's your vantage point. From the blue collar Dems vantage point it's voting to make America great again after years of decline in earnings and living standards, its voting for a President who says he won't be bullied on the world stage like Obama has been on numerous occasions. Trump comes with a lot of baggage, but there are a lot of people in America who are making a positive choice when they vote for Trump. You or I may not see those positives as important enough vs is negatives.

    My vantage point shows me that Hillary has remained ahead of Trump because she is slightly less hated than he is. If that changes - and that looks like it could now happen - Trump will win. I am sure that some blue collar workers are voting Trump for positive reasons, just as I am sure that some people are voting for Hillary for positive reasons. But dislike is clearly the motivating factor for most.

  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    SouthamObserver said:

    weejonnie said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    The question is whether blue collar Dems or GOP establishment voters are more numerous. I think another factor is that GOP establishment voters are making a negative choice while blue collar Dems are making a positive choice, the enthusiasm levels might have an effect, especially in light of the latest email leaks.

    Not sure it is that much of a positive choice. The Trump vote is anti almost everything and clearly detests Hillary. He is getting the nihilistic vote.

    Positive in a sense of voting for a candidate and his or her ideas vs voting against the other candidate. You may not like the idea of blue collar Dems wanting what Trump is offering, but it is what's happening.

    I am afraid I disagree. What I see is a lot of Hillary hate. Just as I see as lot of Trump hate on the other side. There is a reason why the two candidates spend almost all their time attacking each other. It's how they get their votes.

    The difference of course is that Hillary hate is verbal - but Trump hate includes deliberate obstruction of people going to his speeches and kicking a defenceless black woman (Where is Hillary defending her BTW - I thought she was big in supporting women and minorities?) for protecting Trump's star.

    Hmmm- protestors have been attacked and abused at Trump events.

    Do you not see the difference between ejecting people who have gone to an opponent's event solely to disrupt it, and attacking an old woman on a public street for trying to stop an act of vandalism?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    GeoffM said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    weejonnie said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    The question is whether blue collar Dems or GOP establishment voters are more numerous. I think another factor is that GOP establishment voters are making a negative choice while blue collar Dems are making a positive choice, the enthusiasm levels might have an effect, especially in light of the latest email leaks.

    Not sure it is that much of a positive choice. The Trump vote is anti almost everything and clearly detests Hillary. He is getting the nihilistic vote.

    Positive in a sense of voting for a candidate and his or her ideas vs voting against the other candidate. You may not like the idea of blue collar Dems wanting what Trump is offering, but it is what's happening.

    I am afraid I disagree. What I see is a lot of Hillary hate. Just as I see as lot of Trump hate on the other side. There is a reason why the two candidates spend almost all their time attacking each other. It's how they get their votes.

    The difference of course is that Hillary hate is verbal - but Trump hate includes deliberate obstruction of people going to his speeches and kicking a defenceless black woman (Where is Hillary defending her BTW - I thought she was big in supporting women and minorities?) for protecting Trump's star.

    Hmmm- protestors have been attacked and abused at Trump events.

    Do you not see the difference between ejecting people who have gone to an opponent's event solely to disrupt it, and attacking an old woman on a public street for trying to stop an act of vandalism?

    Yes, I do. But I also see the difference between ejecting people and attacking them.

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited October 2016
    SouthamObserver said:

    weejonnie said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    The question is whether blue collar Dems or GOP establishment voters are more numerous. I think another factor is that GOP establishment voters are making a negative choice while blue collar Dems are making a positive choice, the enthusiasm levels might have an effect, especially in light of the latest email leaks.

    Not sure it is that much of a positive choice. The Trump vote is anti almost everything and clearly detests Hillary. He is getting the nihilistic vote.

    Positive in a sense of voting for a candidate and his or her ideas vs voting against the other candidate. You may not like the idea of blue collar Dems wanting what Trump is offering, but it is what's happening.

    I am afraid I disagree. What I see is a lot of Hillary hate. Just as I see as lot of Trump hate on the other side. There is a reason why the two candidates spend almost all their time attacking each other. It's how they get their votes.

    The difference of course is that Hillary hate is verbal - but Trump hate includes deliberate obstruction of people going to his speeches and kicking a defenceless black woman (Where is Hillary defending her BTW - I thought she was big in supporting women and minorities?) for protecting Trump's star.

    Hmmm- protestors have been attacked and abused at Trump events.

    I remember a white Democrat dressed as a Klansman getting flattened by an AA Trump supporter. I remember that.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    GeoffM said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    weejonnie said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    williamglenn said:

    See the Florida poll on the previous thread. If Trump is getting a third of some demographics of registered Democrats you can throw these projections in the bin.

    But, of course, Hillary is getting Republicans (like @Charles' in-laws) that a Democrat normally wouldn't.

    The question is whether blue collar Dems or GOP establishment voters are more numerous. I think another factor is that GOP establishment voters are making a negative choice while blue collar Dems are making a positive choice, the enthusiasm levels might have an effect, especially in light of the latest email leaks.

    Not sure it is that much of a positive choice. The Trump vote is anti almost everything and clearly detests Hillary. He is getting the nihilistic vote.

    Positive in a sense of voting for a candidate and his or her ideas vs voting against the other candidate. You may not like the idea of blue collar Dems wanting what Trump is offering, but it is what's happening.

    I am afraid I disagree. What I see is a lot of Hillary hate. Just as I see as lot of Trump hate on the other side. There is a reason why the two candidates spend almost all their time attacking each other. It's how they get their votes.

    The difference of course is that Hillary hate is verbal - but Trump hate includes deliberate obstruction of people going to his speeches and kicking a defenceless black woman (Where is Hillary defending her BTW - I thought she was big in supporting women and minorities?) for protecting Trump's star.

    Hmmm- protestors have been attacked and abused at Trump events.

    Do you not see the difference between ejecting people who have gone to an opponent's event solely to disrupt it, and attacking an old woman on a public street for trying to stop an act of vandalism?
    its nit ejecting people. Its people being suckerpunched in the face.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    The updated ECV projection from 538.com shows a similar, albeit drift of support from Hillary and towards The Donaldas we saw yesterday. If this were to continue for the next 9 days at the same rate, then we'd be close to a dead heat.

    The numbers, with changes since yesterday are:
    Cinton ......... 319 (-5)
    Trump ......... 218 (+5)

    They are currently shown as being around 100 ECVs apart. A week ago the gap was approx 145 ECVs.
    So in effect, one large state of 22 ECVs or 3 small states each of 7 ECVs have swung away from Clinton to Trump. The interesting aspect now is that a couple of the larger, previously Democratic trending states, could now be in play.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 52,115
    rottenborough said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Sandpit said:

    rottenborough said:

    In case this passed PPbers by during the FBI outburst - get your popcorn on standby as Momentum people start to fight like cats:

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2016/10/jon-lansman-branded-autocratic-momentum-splits-turn-acrimonious

    LOL, accusing each other of being that most disgusting of creatures, the Blairite!

    Theresa May will be laughing all the way to the next election.
    Judean People's Front or People's Front of Judea?

    Must..... Purify....... The....... Revolution.......
    It was only a matter of time before the latest vehicle of the hard left descended into splits and internal rows etc. This is how it always ends.
    Hence my comment. The other comic bit is how all lefty intellectuals think *they* will be in charge when the revolution comes. Meanwhile, just behind them... :-)
This discussion has been closed.