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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634
    edited July 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @JeremyCliffe: Imagine a Labour 2.0 with 170 MPs, including the party's big names. That party becomes official opposition. Corbyn's Labour 1.0 irrelevant.

    Not without funding and party members.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Jonathan said:

    Moses_ said:

    IMO Corbyn now has to stand on a ticket of mandatory reselection for all MPs.

    Do you mean if he wins the contest Labour then should go into a full party reselection process? All MP's....?

    Holy crap!
    PLP has to be replaced wholesale.

    Bradshaw, Eagles and the rest of the pro Iraq brigade have been MPs for too long.

    15 years of Blairite only shortlists have produced a type of Lab MP that wouldnt recognise a working class voter if they tripped over them at the Food Bank
    You would deselect Attlee
    The far left have no interest in the working class, other than as casualties in their fantasy march to a Maoist state.
    10000% correct.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,046
    edited July 2016
    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    A close result but Corbyn gets on the ballot. The best Eagle can hope for is to wound him, the latest members' poll had her getting 40% to his 50% and if Smith runs too he could take a few Corbyn first preferences as well. However Labour has again proved it lacks Tory ruthlessness, Tory rules ensured IDS never faced a second member's ballot in 2003 because he might well have won it. If Corbyn wins the membership ballot again he likely leads the party into the next election unless it is very close in which case UKIP will be breathing hard down Labour's neck and potentially wating into the white working class, the Tories will be the largest party in all likelihood, the question is if Corbyn Labour or UKIP takes second place, especially if the LDs eat onto social democratic Labour voters too

    The hard left is very ruthless and relentless. It has achieved everything it ever wanted from the Labour party. It now has full control and a platform from which to spearhead the proletarian uprising :-D

    Will Corbyn win a GE? No.
    Will someone who thinks and looks like Corbyn win a GE? No.
    What will happen to a Labour party that looks and thinks like Corbyn? They ain't going to win in Nuneaton.
    They ain't going to win Sunderland, Hartlepool and Durham North West....
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    JenSJenS Posts: 91
    edited July 2016
    The Courts won't overturn the NEC interpretation, which seems to be the better view anyway.

    A good chunk of the Labour MPs who voted no confidence will lose their nerve and fall into line. De-selection won't be necessary because re-selection will be required by new constituency boundaries. Momentum will overwhelm old Labour.

    The hard left has taken over the Labour Party now. Will what's left of the Labour vote mostly stay with it? Possibly. It won't be enough to win an election. But it might be enough to keep Labour going for a good few years yet, and that leaves no room for another left of centre party to do well in England and Wales under FPTP.

    We must wait for Labour members to weary of opposition. That will take years and years and years.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Labour couldn't organise panic in a sinking ship. How the hell do they expect to run the country?

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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,638
    Moses_ said:

    murali_s said:

    One party democracy here we come.

    Congrats to the Tories - you've won the next 2-3 General Elections.

    Labour heading for sub 20% at next GE under Corbyn.

    This is an interesting point Mr Murali

    If Jez wins the contest and then loses the next election but hangs still refusing to go is anyone able to remove him? Ever?

    Split inevitable by the looks
    No.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554

    That would only be true if he wouldn't have won without them. That's not the case, if I recall correctly he would even have won among long-standing members.

    That's true, but those new supporters gave him the momentum, and swept up those that should have known better. I honestly don't think it would have happened otherwise.

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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Lowlander said:

    Barnesian said:

    Laura Kuenssberg ✔
    Highly likely that Labour Party itself will challenge the decision in the courts
    8:01 PM - 12 Jul 2016

    What does that mean?

    Who is the Labour Party that will do the challenging?

    Is it the NEC who will challenge their own decision?

    Doesn't make any sense. Who but the NEC itself makes decisions for the party in general?
    Representative Action.

    I was a member of a committee which tried to get rid of me. Sued them "on their own behalf and on behalf of all members of the committee except the claimant" was the wording, IIRC...
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060

    Moses_ said:

    IMO Corbyn now has to stand on a ticket of mandatory reselection for all MPs.

    Do you mean if he wins the contest Labour then should go into a full party reselection process? All MP's....?

    Holy crap!
    PLP has to be replaced wholesale.

    Bradshaw, Eagles and the rest of the pro Iraq brigade have been MPs for too long.

    15 years of Blairite only shortlists have produced a type of Lab MP that wouldnt recognise a working class voter if they tripped over them at the Food Bank
    a new crop of burgons....

    tasty
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,909
    eek said:

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    A close result but Corbyn gets on the ballot. The best Eagle can hope for is to wound him, the latest members' poll had her getting 40% to his 50% and if Smith runs too he could take a few Corbyn first preferences as well. However Labour has again proved it lacks Tory ruthlessness, Tory rules ensured IDS never faced a second member's ballot in 2003 because he might well have won it. If Corbyn wins the membership ballot again he likely leads the party into the next election unless it is very close in which case UKIP will be breathing hard down Labour's neck and potentially wating into the white working class, the Tories will be the largest party in all likelihood, the question is if Corbyn Labour or UKIP takes second place, especially if the LDs eat onto social democratic Labour voters too

    The hard left is very ruthless and relentless. It has achieved everything it ever wanted from the Labour party. It now has full control and a platform from which to spearhead the proletarian uprising :-D

    Will Corbyn win a GE? No.
    Will someone who thinks and looks like Corbyn win a GE? No.
    What will happen to a Labour party that looks and thinks like Corbyn? They ain't going to win in Nuneaton.
    They ain't going to win Sunderland, Hartlepool and Durham North West....
    Care for a wager on Sunderland/Hartlepool?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634
    Scott_P said:

    Jack W was hinting at a radical cabinet from May earlier

    Moderate Labour crossing the floor?

    No way, that would be the easiest way to piss off everyone looking for a promotion. Ridiculous idea.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited July 2016

    The Labour Party

    RIP

    1900 - 2016

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    Moses_ said:

    murali_s said:

    One party democracy here we come.

    Congrats to the Tories - you've won the next 2-3 General Elections.

    Labour heading for sub 20% at next GE under Corbyn.

    This is an interesting point Mr Murali

    If Jez wins the contest and then loses the next election but hangs still refusing to go is anyone able to remove him? Ever?

    Split inevitable by the looks

    As Corbyn does not see Labour as a Parliamentary party, but a mass movement of its members, what happens in a general election is of no interest to him.

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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Jack W was hinting at a radical cabinet from May earlier

    Moderate Labour crossing the floor?

    That'll go down well with the membership :p
    Membership != electorate.

    God only knows what the public think of these shenanigans. I'll ring my Mum and ask. She knows the score.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    IMO Corbyn now has to stand on a ticket of mandatory reselection for all MPs.

    Easiest way to do that is to back the boundary changes, right?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,479
    Dan Hodges has gone quiet. Hope hasn't reached for the pearl-handled revolver.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited July 2016
    Houdini Corbyn off to a Momentum rally...

    #CarryOnCorbyn
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Jonathan said:

    Good. Now we can actually have a fair election and find out whether Eagle, Smith or anyone else has a genuine alternative to offer. It's embarrassing that they were pinning their hopes to keeping their opponent off the ballot.

    Let's hope it will be fair. What do you reckon will happen if Corbyn wins? Can't form a govt with this PLP.
    Form a government? You actually think that Jez would ever ever ever be in such a position.

    Really Admire your loyalty and all that but Jeeeezzz...
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    MaxPB said:



    Not without funding and party members.

    @JeremyCliffe: Members / money not problem for Labour 2.0. Donors plentiful. Thousands of moderates in current membership. Potential for new recruits huge.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,068
    eek said:

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    A close result but Corbyn gets on the ballot. The best Eagle can hope for is to wound him, the latest members' poll had her getting 40% to his 50% and if Smith runs too he could take a few Corbyn first preferences as well. However Labour has again proved it lacks Tory ruthlessness, Tory rules ensured IDS never faced a second member's ballot in 2003 because he might well have won it. If Corbyn wins the membership ballot again he likely leads the party into the next election unless it is very close in which case UKIP will be breathing hard down Labour's neck and potentially wating into the white working class, the Tories will be the largest party in all likelihood, the question is if Corbyn Labour or UKIP takes second place, especially if the LDs eat onto social democratic Labour voters too

    The hard left is very ruthless and relentless. It has achieved everything it ever wanted from the Labour party. It now has full control and a platform from which to spearhead the proletarian uprising :-D

    Will Corbyn win a GE? No.
    Will someone who thinks and looks like Corbyn win a GE? No.
    What will happen to a Labour party that looks and thinks like Corbyn? They ain't going to win in Nuneaton.
    They ain't going to win Sunderland, Hartlepool and Durham North West....
    Dudley, Walsall. Normal places.
    it's ok though they might win leeds nw off the lib dems which would make it all worthwhile
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    Makes me sick to see Corbyn on the TV enthusing about the leadership campaign - if he had put just a tiniest fraction of that enthusiasm in to the referendum campaign then perhaps he wouldn't have cost thousands of workers their jobs in a year or two.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    eek said:

    Fenster said:

    It's the right thing Corbyn is on the ballot.

    It is politically stupid but it's technically and morally right. The original stupidity was gifting Corbyn the 35 MPs last year to enter the leadership race.

    His leadership campaign let the socialist cat out of the bag and the only way to now wring that cat's neck and stuff it back in the bag is to beat it in a one-on-one leadership contest.

    I think Labour can do that if they have the right candidate and make a barnstorming argument.

    And exactly who is that candidate and can make that argument. I look down my (very gren) betfair candidate list and there isn't a single name that is either the right candidate nor could do a barnstorming argument...
    Dunno. Certainly not Eagle.

    Jess Phillips? Dan Jarvis? Ed Miliband?

    It's a tough one. But if they can beat him and then quickly change the rules and get their party back again.

    If Corbyn is that useless he can't be that tough to beat. Surely?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    MaxPB said:

    It would be interesting to hear from HenryG right now. Would love some insight.

    Labour as a Parliamentary party is dead. That's all you need to know.

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,537

    What's the point in challenging the decision in the courts? They may as well spend that time organising a breakaway party, which is how this will end.

    The old Labour model is dead. The party belongs to the left, now, and it is entirely reasonable for the UK to have a socialist party, fighting its corner within a pluralist PR system.

    Those within Labour who cannot accept its new role need to decide whether they to join the LibDems, Greens, or nationalist parties, or whether to form an SDP2.

    All of the non-Conservative parties (possibly ex UKIP) need to think through the best way to co-operate with the shared objective of meaningful electoral and constitutional reform.
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited July 2016
    Despite everything, Labour still polling 30%.

    Think what they might poll once the MPs are replaced with loyal Corbynistas. More than 30%.

    Then Theresa May doesn't put EU Freedom of Movement on the same footing as non EU citizens and the Conservatives rebel.

    Labour could then poll higher than Conservative, although without Scotland Labour can not win outright.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited July 2016
    Hmmm May must be very tempted to go to the country now, a big majority a dead cert, Tory remainers don't love the e.u they love their wealth and it will be a cold day in hell before they risk a divided Corbyn led labour party with the economy by voting UKIP or Libdem. We have enough change already.

    If she goes to the country in October only the Tories have the resources to fight a GE and they will win a 60 seat majority atleast.

    Question is can new legislation to get rid of FTPA be enacted and get throuh the lords in time.
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    RodCrosby said:

    Houdini Corbyn off to a Momentum rally...

    #CarryOnCorbyn

    Keep Calm and Corbyn On.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,046

    eek said:

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    A close result but Corbyn gets on the ballot. The best Eagle can hope for is to wound him, the latest members' poll had her getting 40% to his 50% and if Smith runs too he could take a few Corbyn first preferences as well. However Labour has again proved it lacks Tory ruthlessness, Tory rules ensured IDS never faced a second member's ballot in 2003 because he might well have won it. If Corbyn wins the membership ballot again he likely leads the party into the next election unless it is very close in which case UKIP will be breathing hard down Labour's neck and potentially wating into the white working class, the Tories will be the largest party in all likelihood, the question is if Corbyn Labour or UKIP takes second place, especially if the LDs eat onto social democratic Labour voters too

    The hard left is very ruthless and relentless. It has achieved everything it ever wanted from the Labour party. It now has full control and a platform from which to spearhead the proletarian uprising :-D

    Will Corbyn win a GE? No.
    Will someone who thinks and looks like Corbyn win a GE? No.
    What will happen to a Labour party that looks and thinks like Corbyn? They ain't going to win in Nuneaton.
    They ain't going to win Sunderland, Hartlepool and Durham North West....
    Care for a wager on Sunderland/Hartlepool?
    I was going to say too many unknowns at the moment but £20 on Hartlepool?
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Mike are you going to put up the Peston tweet? It could be the 21st century version of the Dewey beats Truman headlines.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Scott_P said:

    @JeremyCliffe: Imagine a Labour 2.0 with 170 MPs, including the party's big names. That party becomes official opposition. Corbyn's Labour 1.0 irrelevant.

    It gets about 5% in a General Election, and no seats apart from a few in London.

    All the plaudits from smug liberal pundits like Mr Cliffe would not be much consolation, I'm guessing.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    saddened said:

    Labour couldn't organise panic in a sinking ship. How the hell do they expect to run the country?

    I think Southam has persuaded me that they don't want to run the country. They want to criticise the people who run the country. It's easier and morally satisfying.
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:



    Not without funding and party members.

    @JeremyCliffe: Members / money not problem for Labour 2.0. Donors plentiful. Thousands of moderates in current membership. Potential for new recruits huge.
    But no Union support.

    Labour would be bankrupt without the Union money and SDP2 will be hamstrung by a lack of funds.

    But then so will Labour as the big money donors are likely to switch to SDP2.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Good. Now we can actually have a fair election and find out whether Eagle, Smith or anyone else has a genuine alternative to offer. It's embarrassing that they were pinning their hopes to keeping their opponent off the ballot.

    :+1:
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    saddened said:

    Mike are you going to put up the Peston tweet? It could be the 21st century version of the Dewey beats Truman headlines.

    :)

    Peston is undone.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    saddened said:

    Mike are you going to put up the Peston tweet? It could be the 21st century version of the Dewey beats Truman headlines.

    or this one?

    Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB · 12m12 minutes ago
    It looks as though Corbyn has lost
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    Just seen this post on Facebook "Another victory for Jeremy. Now all we need is for capitalist Labour MP's to join the Clueless Toff Party and we can begin the resurrection of the international project for equality and dignity". In that succinct paragraph you see the problem with Corbyn's Labour party - stuck in a seventies class-war time warp
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    A close result but Corbyn gets on the ballot. The best Eagle can hope for is to wound him, the latest members' poll had her getting 40% to his 50% and if Smith runs too he could take a few Corbyn first preferences as well. However Labour has again proved it lacks Tory ruthlessness, Tory rules ensured IDS never faced a second member's ballot in 2003 because he might well have won it. If Corbyn wins the membership ballot again he likely leads the party into the next election unless it is very close in which case UKIP will be breathing hard down Labour's neck and potentially wating into the white working class, the Tories will be the largest party in all likelihood, the question is if Corbyn Labour or UKIP takes second place, especially if the LDs eat onto social democratic Labour voters too

    The hard left is very ruthless and relentless. It has achieved everything it ever wanted from the Labour party. It now has full control and a platform from which to spearhead the proletarian uprising :-D

    Will Corbyn win a GE? No.
    Will someone who thinks and looks like Corbyn win a GE? No.
    What will happen to a Labour party that looks and thinks like Corbyn? They ain't going to win in Nuneaton.

    And Corbyn Labour will not give a monkeys. The path to socialism lies via a mass rising of the proletariat. It's Labour's job to facilitate that. And that will happen from the street. It's basic 1970s revolutionary Marxism.

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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,479
    IanB2 said:

    What's the point in challenging the decision in the courts? They may as well spend that time organising a breakaway party, which is how this will end.

    The old Labour model is dead. The party belongs to the left, now, and it is entirely reasonable for the UK to have a socialist party, fighting its corner within a pluralist PR system.

    Those within Labour who cannot accept its new role need to decide whether they to join the LibDems, Greens, or nationalist parties, or whether to form an SDP2.

    All of the non-Conservative parties (possibly ex UKIP) need to think through the best way to co-operate with the shared objective of meaningful electoral and constitutional reform.
    :+1:
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Fenster said:

    eek said:

    Fenster said:

    It's the right thing Corbyn is on the ballot.

    It is politically stupid but it's technically and morally right. The original stupidity was gifting Corbyn the 35 MPs last year to enter the leadership race.

    His leadership campaign let the socialist cat out of the bag and the only way to now wring that cat's neck and stuff it back in the bag is to beat it in a one-on-one leadership contest.

    I think Labour can do that if they have the right candidate and make a barnstorming argument.

    And exactly who is that candidate and can make that argument. I look down my (very gren) betfair candidate list and there isn't a single name that is either the right candidate nor could do a barnstorming argument...
    Dunno. Certainly not Eagle.

    Jess Phillips? Dan Jarvis? Ed Miliband?

    It's a tough one. But if they can beat him and then quickly change the rules and get their party back again.

    If Corbyn is that useless he can't be that tough to beat. Surely?
    Have faith in Argclu.

    You know she can do it!
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634

    MaxPB said:

    It would be interesting to hear from HenryG right now. Would love some insight.

    Labour as a Parliamentary party is dead. That's all you need to know.

    The inside view as to what comes next is what I'm interested in, do the rebels lose and knuckle under or do they split, if they split then how do they go about finding etc... if they knuckle under then how long until they declare a white peace and rejoin the Shadow Cabinet.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 11m11 minutes ago

    Highly likely that Labour Party itself will challenge the decision in the courts

    I believe that the term is:

    Lolwut?
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Barnesian said:

    RobD said:

    Barnesian said:

    Laura Kuenssberg ✔
    Highly likely that Labour Party itself will challenge the decision in the courts
    8:01 PM - 12 Jul 2016

    What does that mean?

    Who is the Labour Party that will do the challenging?

    Is it the NEC who will challenge their own decision?

    Well, someone in the party could disagree with the NEC.
    She says "Labour party itself" not some random member.
    She's not a lawyer.
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Scott_P said:

    MaxPB said:



    Not without funding and party members.

    @JeremyCliffe: Members / money not problem for Labour 2.0. Donors plentiful. Thousands of moderates in current membership. Potential for new recruits huge.
    If the "potential for new recruits is huge", then we'll see how many £3 recruitments they get for the "moderate" candidate in the upcoming leadership election.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,554
    edited July 2016
    Champions League qualifying, Brendan's first competitive match as manager, currently it is:

    Lincoln Red Imps 1-0 Celtic
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
    SMukesh said:

    I know a lot of these members and can well believe they will keep Corbyn in place.And the less said about the 3 quidders (fucking Ed`s brainwave), the better.

    Yeah, but he would have won with party members alone.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634
    SeanT said:

    This is actually quite scary.

    Imagine that we lurch into decline post Brexit. That's the one scenario where, in despair, the British might elect Corbyn's Labour.

    Within five years we'd be a European Venezuela. Food shortages. Riots. Civil strife.

    Great.

    Don't worry, as bad as it might get, Corbyn will never be in power here.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,202

    Despite everything, Labour still polling 30%.

    Think what they might poll once the MPs are replaced with loyal Corbynistas. More than 30%.

    Then Theresa May doesn't put EU Freedom of Movement on the same footing as non EU citizens and the Conservatives rebel.

    Labour could then poll higher than Conservative, although without Scotland Labour can not win outright.

    No way, 62% preferred May as PM to 18% Corbyn in a poll yesterday and the Tories are on about 38% even with Labour on 30%. Say May agrees EEA and EFTA and Corbyn leads Labour into the next election, the biggest gainers would be UKIP who could take equally from both main parties while Farron's LDs may also be fractionally up, I could see a result something like Tories 31%, UKIP 27%, Labour 23%, LDs 10% and UKIP become the main opposition party, at least in voteshare terms.
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,045

    Good. Now we can actually have a fair election and find out whether Eagle, Smith or anyone else has a genuine alternative to offer. It's embarrassing that they were pinning their hopes to keeping their opponent off the ballot.

    With 200k Trots as members, no-one else has a chance. I can hope for a miracle. It's quite likely I will tear up my membership once the old fool wins again.

    A bleak day for progressive politics. The Tories on here must be cock-a-hoop.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,202
    SeanT said:

    This is actually quite scary.

    Imagine that we lurch into decline post Brexit. That's the one scenario where, in despair, the British might elect Corbyn's Labour.

    Within five years we'd be a European Venezuela. Food shortages. Riots. Civil strife.

    Great.

    That was my worst case scenario before the vote. Now that we have a sensible PM and no premature article 50 we should avoid that fate.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Oh, for goodness sake! All this wailing and gnashing of teeth, and from some who are old enough to know better is a bit pathetic. We had all the same predictions when Foot was leader and especially when he lost the 1983 election. We also heard much the same about the Conservatives after 2001.

    Labour as a party is not going to die. I very much doubt it will split. It may well lose the 2020 general election but then the Conservatives lost three GEs in a row before they found their feet again and started to appeal to people outside their core vote.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    SeanT said:

    This is actually quite scary.

    Imagine that we lurch into decline post Brexit. That's the one scenario where, in despair, the British might elect Corbyn's Labour.

    Within five years we'd be a European Venezuela. Food shortages. Riots. Civil strife.

    Great.

    As we have seen this week if there was even a smidgeon of a chance Corbyn might win an election the Tories would ruthlessly change leader to someone who would more likely win an election.

    Besides if the party splits I can't foresee a way Labour could win a majority, even with an unlikely SNP collapse. Worst case realistic scenario would be a Lab and SNP coalition.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,479
    Kinnock must be beyond consoling. All those years fighting this kind of insanity.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    It would be interesting to hear from HenryG right now. Would love some insight.

    Labour as a Parliamentary party is dead. That's all you need to know.

    The inside view as to what comes next is what I'm interested in, do the rebels lose and knuckle under or do they split, if they split then how do they go about finding etc... if they knuckle under then how long until they declare a white peace and rejoin the Shadow Cabinet.

    The high profile ones will mostly be deselected.

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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    IMO Corbyn now has to stand on a ticket of mandatory reselection for all MPs.

    Easiest way to do that is to back the boundary changes, right?
    Best for the Conservatives not to trigger boundary changes and leave the anti Corbyn MPs in place.
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    ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    SeanT said:

    Moses_ said:

    IMO Corbyn now has to stand on a ticket of mandatory reselection for all MPs.

    Do you mean if he wins the contest Labour then should go into a full party reselection process? All MP's....?

    Holy crap!
    Yes. Corbyn has lost the support of MPs of all political views. Left, Right, Blairite, Brownite, soft left, Blue Labour etc. Obviously all of these people are just 'wrong'. Consequently, the Labour party will become uniformly Corbynite. Unlike any other political party, Labour will cease to be a board church of views. Only Corbynism will be tolerated. It was always going to be this way as many Corbynites I've spoken to cannot deal with disagreement on any subject whatsoever.
    One of the UK's two great political parties has been taken over by the mad people who throw rocks through windows. Incroyable.
    I cannot understand the perspectives of militant leftists at all. Don't they actually want to improve people's lives? Is being a protest movement and perpetual complainers really better than making sure that all kids have a chance in life etc? Margaret Beckett must hate herself right now.
    She wasn't the only one was she but I cannot recall who the others were. I'm sure someone can enlighten me.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978
    If you want to understand the Corbyn cult read this:

    https://afterlabour.org/2016/07/12/corbyn-and-the-new-political-puritans/
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    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    IMO Corbyn now has to stand on a ticket of mandatory reselection for all MPs.

    Do you mean if he wins the contest Labour then should go into a full party reselection process? All MP's....?

    Holy crap!
    PLP has to be replaced wholesale.

    Bradshaw, Eagles and the rest of the pro Iraq brigade have been MPs for too long.

    15 years of Blairite only shortlists have produced a type of Lab MP that wouldnt recognise a working class voter if they tripped over them at the Food Bank
    Ok see where you are coming from but good or bad , love him or hate him, Blair won 3 elections in a row two were landslides. He connected with voters across the centre ground in the political arena that Jez just doesn't. The whole point of opposition is to oppose of course but also to ultimately win power

    Blair did, Jez ( bless his little Cotten socks) just cannot.

    It's the centre ground .......

  • Options
    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton 14m14 minutes ago
    NEC voting now on membership freeze date for leadership election.


    Before the 100k recent signs up would be nice.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,634

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    It would be interesting to hear from HenryG right now. Would love some insight.

    Labour as a Parliamentary party is dead. That's all you need to know.

    The inside view as to what comes next is what I'm interested in, do the rebels lose and knuckle under or do they split, if they split then how do they go about finding etc... if they knuckle under then how long until they declare a white peace and rejoin the Shadow Cabinet.

    The high profile ones will mostly be deselected.

    Hmm, I wonder whether they might declare a ceasefire in order to keep Momentum at bay. MPs are going to have to work very, very hard to recruit new moderate members.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,202

    OK, now is the time for May to make a big, open offer to moderate, sensible Labour members to jump ship. Kendall, Chuka, Tristram... We'd even take Woodward back. Maybe.

    Pre-empt the Lab split by getting some of their better people to join a decent, centrist Tory administration - it would be a stroke of genius.

    May could do that but then IDS, Patterson, Leadsom, Rees-Mogg, Redwood, Tebbit, Cash etc would then swiftly move to UKIP in response
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    glw said:

    Champions League qualifying, Brendan's first competitive match as manager, currently it is:

    Lincoln Red Imps 1-0 Celtic

    The day keeps getting better.
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,008

    Despite everything, Labour still polling 30%.

    Think what they might poll once the MPs are replaced with loyal Corbynistas. More than 30%.

    Then Theresa May doesn't put EU Freedom of Movement on the same footing as non EU citizens and the Conservatives rebel.

    Labour could then poll higher than Conservative, although without Scotland Labour can not win outright.

    Betfair: Next election Labour Most Seats 4.1 (24%) Labour majority 6.6 (15%)
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,479
    Did we evert get a final decision on the cut-off date for £3 supporters being able to vote in this? I seem to recall someone said no one who joined after June 2016 would be allowed.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DavidRoe92: In fairness, 150 or so Labour MPs can create a big party quickly from a standing start and take Opposition slots right away. Not a gang of 6

    He's right, but do they have the gumption?

    Compouter says no...
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,479
    Barnesian said:

    Despite everything, Labour still polling 30%.

    Think what they might poll once the MPs are replaced with loyal Corbynistas. More than 30%.

    Then Theresa May doesn't put EU Freedom of Movement on the same footing as non EU citizens and the Conservatives rebel.

    Labour could then poll higher than Conservative, although without Scotland Labour can not win outright.

    Betfair: Next election Labour Most Seats 4.1 (24%) Labour majority 6.6 (15%)
    factor by 10 and you might have a good bet.
  • Options
    I don't think it is right to criticise the NEC for this.

    They had to follow the rules in the same way a judge has to follow the law.

    It needs a genuine heavyweight to stand and defeat him, change the rules then resign .

    Anyone offering odds on Lord (Neil) Kinnock yet?
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    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,638
    HYUFD said:



    No way, 62% preferred May as PM to 18% Corbyn in a poll yesterday

    I missed that (not the ICM general VI poll though). Could you provide a link please?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    May could do that but then IDS, Patterson, Leadsom, Rees-Mogg, Redwood, Tebbit, Cash etc would then swiftly move to UKIP in response

    Win, win, win, win, win !!!
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    "Daddy, who were the Labour Party?"
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    Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Scott_P said:

    @DavidRoe92: In fairness, 150 or so Labour MPs can create a big party quickly from a standing start and take Opposition slots right away. Not a gang of 6

    He's right, but do they have the gumption?

    Compouter says no...

    And where do their VOTERS come from???
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    Brom said:

    SeanT said:

    This is actually quite scary.

    Imagine that we lurch into decline post Brexit. That's the one scenario where, in despair, the British might elect Corbyn's Labour.

    Within five years we'd be a European Venezuela. Food shortages. Riots. Civil strife.

    Great.

    As we have seen this week if there was even a smidgeon of a chance Corbyn might win an election the Tories would ruthlessly change leader to someone who would more likely win an election.

    Besides if the party splits I can't foresee a way Labour could win a majority, even with an unlikely SNP collapse. Worst case realistic scenario would be a Lab and SNP coalition.
    The SNP are not daft. NS knows a dead duck when she sees one. Even if a Corybn premiership was a possibility in the future, I think the UK in its present form would have ended by that point.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Dan Hodges has gone quiet. Hope hasn't reached for the pearl-handled revolver.

    What a crap year for Dan. Leave wins the referendum, Cameron out as PM and Jeremy gets to fight another day.
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    SeanT said:

    This is actually quite scary.

    Imagine that we lurch into decline post Brexit. That's the one scenario where, in despair, the British might elect Corbyn's Labour.

    Within five years we'd be a European Venezuela. Food shortages. Riots. Civil strife.

    Great.

    Did some sums. Imagine a 25% drop in GDP (i.e more than three times 2008 crash, five times 1930s crash). Puts the UK back to 1996.

    Imagine it halved. That takes us to 1984. We're a long, long way from Venezuela.

    Do it per capita. 25% decline turns us into Japan. 50% decline turns us into Spain. We're a long way from Venezuela.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    A close result but Corbyn gets on the ballot. The best Eagle can hope for is to wound him, the latest members' poll had her getting 40% to his 50% and if Smith runs too he could take a few Corbyn first preferences as well. However Labour has again proved it lacks Tory ruthlessness, Tory rules ensured IDS never faced a second member's ballot in 2003 because he might well have won it. If Corbyn wins the membership ballot again he likely leads the party into the next election unless it is very close in which case UKIP will be breathing hard down Labour's neck and potentially wating into the white working class, the Tories will be the largest party in all likelihood, the question is if Corbyn Labour or UKIP takes second place, especially if the LDs eat onto social democratic Labour voters too

    The hard left is very ruthless and relentless. It has achieved everything it ever wanted from the Labour party. It now has full control and a platform from which to spearhead the proletarian uprising :-D

    Will Corbyn win a GE? No.
    Will someone who thinks and looks like Corbyn win a GE? No.
    What will happen to a Labour party that looks and thinks like Corbyn? They ain't going to win in Nuneaton.

    And Corbyn Labour will not give a monkeys. The path to socialism lies via a mass rising of the proletariat. It's Labour's job to facilitate that. And that will happen from the street. It's basic 1970s revolutionary Marxism.

    You recently re-joined this party that you say is aimed at a mass rising of the proletariat and "seizing the means of production" (your words from earlier today). Buyers remorse? Will you once again be resigning your membership?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    "Daddy, who were the Labour Party?"

    They took over from the Liberals.

    Who?
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    edited July 2016
    Plato?

    One for you. Just wandering through the amazon Prime Day deals, and found that the #1 best seller in toys and games is Exploding Kittens - a card game for people who are into kittens and explosions and laser beams and sometimes goats. It's a deal at $15, 20% off
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: Labour whips office just posed for final photograph on House of Commons terrace. About to resign.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,068
    You have to assume that, if the hollowed-out membership of the Labour Party can be taken over so quickly in the internet age, the same thing will happen to the Conservative Party one day.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Independent: Exclusive: Theresa May’s husband is senior executive at a $1.4tn hedge fund that profits from tax avoiding companies https://t.co/6A4XGC3QUQ

    Labour will be all over this.

    oh, wait...
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    SMukesh said:

    I know a lot of these members and can well believe they will keep Corbyn in place.And the less said about the 3 quidders (fucking Ed`s brainwave), the better.

    Don't blame me, I voted for Liz.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Labour whips office just posed for final photograph on House of Commons terrace. About to resign.

    Go jump in the Thames...
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,734
    Scott_P said:

    @DavidRoe92: In fairness, 150 or so Labour MPs can create a big party quickly from a standing start and take Opposition slots right away. Not a gang of 6

    He's right, but do they have the gumption?

    Compouter says no...

    Do they have the constituency organisation and trade union backing?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    Moses_ said:

    IMO Corbyn now has to stand on a ticket of mandatory reselection for all MPs.

    Do you mean if he wins the contest Labour then should go into a full party reselection process? All MP's....?

    Holy crap!
    PLP has to be replaced wholesale.

    Bradshaw, Eagles and the rest of the pro Iraq brigade have been MPs for too long.

    15 years of Blairite only shortlists have produced a type of Lab MP that wouldnt recognise a working class voter if they tripped over them at the Food Bank

    Spot on - the working class is crying out for unrestricted immigration, solidarity with the IRA and Hamas, unilateral nuclear disarmament and the abolition of the monarchy. :-D

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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    2 of those 4 votes were Corbyn himself and Skinner.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,930
    Moses_ said:

    Moses_ said:

    IMO Corbyn now has to stand on a ticket of mandatory reselection for all MPs.

    Do you mean if he wins the contest Labour then should go into a full party reselection process? All MP's....?

    Holy crap!
    PLP has to be replaced wholesale.

    Bradshaw, Eagles and the rest of the pro Iraq brigade have been MPs for too long.

    15 years of Blairite only shortlists have produced a type of Lab MP that wouldnt recognise a working class voter if they tripped over them at the Food Bank
    Ok see where you are coming from but good or bad , love him or hate him, Blair won 3 elections in a row two were landslides. He connected with voters across the centre ground in the political arena that Jez just doesn't. The whole point of opposition is to oppose of course but also to ultimately win power

    Blair did, Jez ( bless his little Cotten socks) just cannot.

    It's the centre ground .......

    I suspect Jezza would never have got hold of the leadership (and we wouldn't have Brexited) if Blair hadn't taken us to war with Iraq....
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Danny565 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @DavidRoe92: In fairness, 150 or so Labour MPs can create a big party quickly from a standing start and take Opposition slots right away. Not a gang of 6

    He's right, but do they have the gumption?

    Compouter says no...

    And where do their VOTERS come from???
    And where does their money come from?
  • Options
    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    John_M said:

    SeanT said:

    This is actually quite scary.

    Imagine that we lurch into decline post Brexit. That's the one scenario where, in despair, the British might elect Corbyn's Labour.

    Within five years we'd be a European Venezuela. Food shortages. Riots. Civil strife.

    Great.

    Did some sums. Imagine a 25% drop in GDP (i.e more than three times 2008 crash, five times 1930s crash). Puts the UK back to 1996.

    Imagine it halved. That takes us to 1984. We're a long, long way from Venezuela.

    Do it per capita. 25% decline turns us into Japan. 50% decline turns us into Spain. We're a long way from Venezuela.

    We're a long, long way from Venezuela.

    But how far are we from Tipperary?

  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,806
    SeanT said:

    This is actually quite scary.

    Imagine that we lurch into decline post Brexit. That's the one scenario where, in despair, the British might elect Corbyn's Labour.

    Within five years we'd be a European Venezuela. Food shortages. Riots. Civil strife.

    Great.

    May, now in power, will steady things. She may be good, she may be bad (buts she's "May" I guess the joke will go). Anyway the point is that she'll deliver a minimal competence. I think that we'll find that UK plc thrives as long as the world picture doesn't interrupt things.

    Corbyn and (now) Labour do not have the minimal competence.

    I am as gloomy as you about the prospects, but that's just because the world is busy getting it wrong.


  • Options
    Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Moses_ said:

    IMO Corbyn now has to stand on a ticket of mandatory reselection for all MPs.

    Do you mean if he wins the contest Labour then should go into a full party reselection process? All MP's....?

    Holy crap!
    Yes. Corbyn has lost the support of MPs of all political views. Left, Right, Blairite, Brownite, soft left, Blue Labour etc. Obviously all of these people are just 'wrong'. Consequently, the Labour party will become uniformly Corbynite. Unlike any other political party, Labour will cease to be a board church of views. Only Corbynism will be tolerated. It was always going to be this way as many Corbynites I've spoken to cannot deal with disagreement on any subject whatsoever.
    Then they surely must leave then and reform as another party? If deselection beckons that probably is going to be sooner rather than later to be in position to fight GE2020

    PM May must be looking at this and thinking dare I call a GE in September / October and finish off CorbyLabour and New Improved whiter than white Labour at the same time.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    I don't think it is right to criticise the NEC for this.

    They had to follow the rules in the same way a judge has to follow the law.

    It needs a genuine heavyweight to stand and defeat him, change the rules then resign .

    Anyone offering odds on Lord (Neil) Kinnock yet?

    Leader has to be a Commons member of the PLP, I believe.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,537

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    A close result but Corbyn gets on the ballot. The best Eagle can hope for is to wound him, the latest members' poll had her getting 40% to his 50% and if Smith runs too he could take a few Corbyn first preferences as well. However Labour has again proved it lacks Tory ruthlessness, Tory rules ensured IDS never faced a second member's ballot in 2003 because he might well have won it. If Corbyn wins the membership ballot again he likely leads the party into the next election unless it is very close in which case UKIP will be breathing hard down Labour's neck and potentially wating into the white working class, the Tories will be the largest party in all likelihood, the question is if Corbyn Labour or UKIP takes second place, especially if the LDs eat onto social democratic Labour voters too

    The hard left is very ruthless and relentless. It has achieved everything it ever wanted from the Labour party. It now has full control and a platform from which to spearhead the proletarian uprising :-D

    Will Corbyn win a GE? No.
    Will someone who thinks and looks like Corbyn win a GE? No.
    What will happen to a Labour party that looks and thinks like Corbyn? They ain't going to win in Nuneaton.

    And Corbyn Labour will not give a monkeys. The path to socialism lies via a mass rising of the proletariat. It's Labour's job to facilitate that. And that will happen from the street. It's basic 1970s revolutionary Marxism.

    You recently re-joined this party that you say is aimed at a mass rising of the proletariat and "seizing the means of production" (your words from earlier today). Buyers remorse? Will you once again be resigning your membership?
    I don't recall the proletariat being that useful, when it came to it, to the revolutionaries who found themselves by chance in the right place to pick up power as Tsarist Russia collapsed? And the peasants were even less useful.
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    "Daddy, who were the Labour Party?"

    It's not just Labour that's finished tonight.

    https://twitter.com/BorisBrownBets/status/752949215945515008
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,008
    edited July 2016

    Barnesian said:

    Despite everything, Labour still polling 30%.

    Think what they might poll once the MPs are replaced with loyal Corbynistas. More than 30%.

    Then Theresa May doesn't put EU Freedom of Movement on the same footing as non EU citizens and the Conservatives rebel.

    Labour could then poll higher than Conservative, although without Scotland Labour can not win outright.

    Betfair: Next election Labour Most Seats 4.1 (24%) Labour majority 6.6 (15%)
    factor by 10 and you might have a good bet.
    You can lay Next election Labour Most Seats 4.7 (21%) Labour majority 7.8 (13%) if you think it is that unlikely.
  • Options

    IMO Corbyn now has to stand on a ticket of mandatory reselection for all MPs.

    Easiest way to do that is to back the boundary changes, right?
    Best for the Conservatives not to trigger boundary changes and leave the anti Corbyn MPs in place.
    Why? With the boundary changes the Conservatives gain a bigger majority and the Labour party falls into complete disunity with probably most of the current MPs eventually deselected. That then forces the "moderates" to form their own party before the GE and start to build that party ready for the GE. An SDP2.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited July 2016

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    A close result but Corbyn gets on the ballot. The best Eagle can hope for is to wound him, the latest members' poll had her getting 40% to his 50% and if Smith runs too he could take a few Corbyn first preferences as well. However Labour has again proved it lacks Tory ruthlessness, Tory rules ensured IDS never faced a second member's ballot in 2003 because he might well have won it. If Corbyn wins the membership ballot again he likely leads the party into the next election unless it is very close in which case UKIP will be breathing hard down Labour's neck and potentially wating into the white working class, the Tories will be the largest party in all likelihood, the question is if Corbyn Labour or UKIP takes second place, especially if the LDs eat onto social democratic Labour voters too

    The hard left is very ruthless and relentless. It has achieved everything it ever wanted from the Labour party. It now has full control and a platform from which to spearhead the proletarian uprising :-D

    Will Corbyn win a GE? No.
    Will someone who thinks and looks like Corbyn win a GE? No.
    What will happen to a Labour party that looks and thinks like Corbyn? They ain't going to win in Nuneaton.

    And Corbyn Labour will not give a monkeys. The path to socialism lies via a mass rising of the proletariat. It's Labour's job to facilitate that. And that will happen from the street. It's basic 1970s revolutionary Marxism.

    You recently re-joined this party that you say is aimed at a mass rising of the proletariat and "seizing the means of production" (your words from earlier today). Buyers remorse? Will you once again be resigning your membership?
    Wait to see who triumphs. Jezza is through to the final, but is not lifting the cup just yet. Play to the whistle!

    If he wins, Labour are dead for a generation at least.

    I was looking for the pb predictions of 2016. I recall predicting that there would be a Labour leadership election, but Jezza to stay on.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,978

    EPG said:

    HYUFD said:

    A close result but Corbyn gets on the ballot. The best Eagle can hope for is to wound him, the latest members' poll had her getting 40% to his 50% and if Smith runs too he could take a few Corbyn first preferences as well. However Labour has again proved it lacks Tory ruthlessness, Tory rules ensured IDS never faced a second member's ballot in 2003 because he might well have won it. If Corbyn wins the membership ballot again he likely leads the party into the next election unless it is very close in which case UKIP will be breathing hard down Labour's neck and potentially wating into the white working class, the Tories will be the largest party in all likelihood, the question is if Corbyn Labour or UKIP takes second place, especially if the LDs eat onto social democratic Labour voters too

    The hard left is very ruthless and relentless. It has achieved everything it ever wanted from the Labour party. It now has full control and a platform from which to spearhead the proletarian uprising :-D

    Will Corbyn win a GE? No.
    Will someone who thinks and looks like Corbyn win a GE? No.
    What will happen to a Labour party that looks and thinks like Corbyn? They ain't going to win in Nuneaton.

    And Corbyn Labour will not give a monkeys. The path to socialism lies via a mass rising of the proletariat. It's Labour's job to facilitate that. And that will happen from the street. It's basic 1970s revolutionary Marxism.

    You recently re-joined this party that you say is aimed at a mass rising of the proletariat and "seizing the means of production" (your words from earlier today). Buyers remorse? Will you once again be resigning your membership?

    I want to vote against Corbyn and find out more about my fellow CLP members and their thoughts.

  • Options
    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited July 2016
    Says it all really.
    Twitter
    Rachel Reeves@RachelReevesMP
    Follow @saving_labour tonight to join the campaign and get the strong leadership we so urgently need
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,202

    HYUFD said:

    A close result but Corbyn gets on the ballot. The best Eagle can hope for is to wound him, the latest members' poll had her getting 40% to his 50% and if Smith runs too he could take a few Corbyn first preferences as well. However Labour has again proved it lacks Tory ruthlessness, Tory rules ensured IDS never faced a second member's ballot in 2003 because he might well have won it. If Corbyn wins the membership ballot again he likely leads the party into the next election unless it is very close in which case UKIP will be breathing hard down Labour's neck and potentially wating into the white working class, the Tories will be the largest party in all likelihood, the question is if Corbyn Labour or UKIP takes second place, especially if the LDs eat onto social democratic Labour voters too

    The hard left is very ruthless and relentless. It has achieved everything it ever wanted from the Labour party. It now has full control and a platform from which to spearhead the proletarian uprising :-D

    Yes, it will be a Mediterranean party of protest, much as they wanted, however short of an economic apocalypse it will never get within a million miles of forming a government ever again!
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503

    John_M said:

    SeanT said:

    This is actually quite scary.

    Imagine that we lurch into decline post Brexit. That's the one scenario where, in despair, the British might elect Corbyn's Labour.

    Within five years we'd be a European Venezuela. Food shortages. Riots. Civil strife.

    Great.

    Did some sums. Imagine a 25% drop in GDP (i.e more than three times 2008 crash, five times 1930s crash). Puts the UK back to 1996.

    Imagine it halved. That takes us to 1984. We're a long, long way from Venezuela.

    Do it per capita. 25% decline turns us into Japan. 50% decline turns us into Spain. We're a long way from Venezuela.

    We're a long, long way from Venezuela.

    But how far are we from Tipperary?

    309.1 miles according to Google :).
  • Options
    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Makes me sick to see Corbyn on the TV enthusing about the leadership campaign - if he had put just a tiniest fraction of that enthusiasm in to the referendum campaign then perhaps he wouldn't have cost thousands of workers their jobs in a year or two.

    I would address that to Tristram Hunt, one of the MPs for Stoke plus many others.
This discussion has been closed.