Are you seriously saying we don't have any methods of measuring the competency of a Home Secretary?
You might like the shoes, the speeches, and the 'mood'. For me that's an utterly inadequate set of qualifications.
I'm saying judging the performance of the Home Secretary is far more difficult than any other department.
Crime Figures (Down but difficult to accurately assess) .. Police Numbers (Down but huge technological changes) .. Terrorist Attacks (Down but does she take the credit).. EU Immigration (Not controllable) .. MI5. (???????)
What we may say is that being a modern Home Secretary for six years is unprecedented and in the context of financial limitations and a usually hostile narrative pervading should be seen as about as positive as any politician might reasonably expect.
Singularly and utterly depressing lack of ambition for our polity and the wider country.
I am not for putting a brave face on decline, which seems to be what you're arguing for. I am for someone with a positive vision of turning things around.
If Leadsom wins and give Farage any kind of role I'll burn my membership and cancel my direct debit. There is no way I'll ever be in a party which has anything to do with an odious character like that.
I think the next PM, whoever it is, should get Mr Farage some recognition in the 2019/2020 honours list. We wouldn't have had the referendum without UKIP and Mr Farage.
Farage will be out of a job as an MEP in a couple of years - I can't see UKIP surviving without him...or indeed with him. The party's finances will fall through the floor and he won't be able to draw his fat MEP salary and expenses after Brexit.
At a local level UKIP are a reg-bag of oddballs and malcontents held together with a common goal - that's been secured...the adhesive that binds them has gone and so too will the party.
If May is the next PM the Kippers will be laughing all the way to the polling booth in the North of the country as she opts for EEA+++ and is wide open to accusations that nothing has actually changed despite the clear mandate from the voters.
There is no clear mandate. You spout utter garbage. 3.8% is a tiny margin.
It's not huge, but there is a clear mandate for Leave. What there is not is a clear mandate against EEA+++ or any other option under the Leave umbrella - all are up for grabs. Some will make a lot of people very angry, but there is not a clear and direct mandate for any option within Leave, only for Leave.
It's not a clear mandate - if it were an opinion poll it would be within the margin of error
Unlike an opinion poll, in the referendum every qualifying voter was able to vote REMAIN, LEAVE or abstain.
There is no margin of error.
Yes I am aware of that, duh. The point I make is that the result was so close that IF it had been an opinion poll, the difference would have been within a margin of error
Serious question - for once. Why is it that with so many northern voters cry out that "the immigrants are taking our jobs" we don't have high levels of unemployment? In fact we have record levels of UK citizens in work than ever in our history?
Maybe when lefties said that zero-hours contracts and forced self-employment weren't real jobs, they had a point.
- neither side wants to back down, but any softening there is seems to be more on the Leave side. There is genuine shock at the effects on the pound and fears of further economic trouble
Yes I can see it now, Dave the Plumber and his mates down the pub, "Did you see that Sterling fell by 2p against the USD last night", "Christ we better forget all we said about immigration and get into the EEA or EFTA right now" "Calm down my son, it's okay because the FTSE is up 2% on the week".
If Leadsom wins and give Farage any kind of role I'll burn my membership and cancel my direct debit. There is no way I'll ever be in a party which has anything to do with an odious character like that.
I think the next PM, whoever it is, should get Mr Farage some recognition in the 2019/2020 honours list. We wouldn't have had the referendum without UKIP and Mr Farage.
Farage will be out of a job as an MEP in a couple of years - I can't see UKIP surviving without him...or indeed with him. The party's finances will fall through the floor and he won't be able to draw his fat MEP salary and expenses after Brexit.
At a local level UKIP are a reg-bag of oddballs and malcontents held together with a common goal - that's been secured...the adhesive that binds them has gone and so too will the party.
If May is the next PM the Kippers will be laughing all the way to the polling booth in the North of the country as she opts for EEA+++ and is wide open to accusations that nothing has actually changed despite the clear mandate from the voters.
There is no clear mandate. You spout utter garbage. 3.8% is a tiny margin.
No it you spouting garbage. Cameron got 50.1% of the seats in the commons, I didn't hear him saying he better adopt a big chunk of the Labour manifesto to keep the rest of the voters happy. Win is win.
What we have learnt from this Referendum is that Remainers do not have on/off switches in their homes, merely dimmer switches, set so low as to be in permanent gloom....
If May is the next PM the Kippers will be laughing all the way to the polling booth in the North of the country as she opts for EEA+++ and is wide open to accusations that nothing has actually changed despite the clear mandate from the voters.
Would that 102 UKIP MP's up north ?
That was Mike K, not Indigo
I know but it's the PB UKIP standard by which Faragism must be fairly judged ..
The Home Office is about holding it all together now and for the future. That's the policy. Not bean counting the number of NHS operations, employment numbers or solar panels. May is making a virtue of her lack of flamboyance (save shoes .. Mrs JackW approves) in substance and style. It's the correct mood for the times we have ahead.
Except she didn't
Oh, the Gove inspired hatchet job by a Murdoch Film Critic even the Telegraph thought better of?
Case closed, M'Lud.....
There is only one question about the story that matters, and it isnt who wrote it, who inspired it, who published it, or who printed it.
If Leadsom wins and give Farage any kind of role I'll burn my membership and cancel my direct debit. There is no way I'll ever be in a party which has anything to do with an odious character like that.
I think the next PM, whoever it is, should get Mr Farage some recognition in the 2019/2020 honours list. We wouldn't have had the referendum without UKIP and Mr Farage.
Farage will be out of a job as an MEP in a couple of years - I can't see UKIP surviving without him...or indeed with him. The party's finances will fall through the floor and he won't be able to draw his fat MEP salary and expenses after Brexit.
At a local level UKIP are a reg-bag of oddballs and malcontents held together with a common goal - that's been secured...the adhesive that binds them has gone and so too will the party.
If May is the next PM the Kippers will be laughing all the way to the polling booth in the North of the country as she opts for EEA+++ and is wide open to accusations that nothing has actually changed despite the clear mandate from the voters.
There is no clear mandate. You spout utter garbage. 3.8% is a tiny margin.
No it you spouting garbage. Cameron got 50.1% of the seats in the commons, I didn't hear him saying he better adopt a big chunk of the Labour manifesto to keep the rest of the voters happy. Win is win.
The difference is while VoteLeave put out a platform, they were not the only ones, so we don't know how many people just wanted to leave no matter what and how many wanted specifically that platform. Leave won. VoteLeave definitely played a big part and pissing them off will be dangerous for the government. But VoteLeave did not itself win. Win is win, and the outcome was Leave...somehow. Nothing more, nothing less.
"Analysts at investment bank Macquarie believe the telecoms giant’s pension deficit may have widened by as much as £1.6bn to £12.2bn, in the space of just a few weeks, largely as a result of Brexit."
More self-inflicted pain thanks to Brexit. What a disaster.
If Leadsom wins and give Farage any kind of role I'll burn my membership and cancel my direct debit. There is no way I'll ever be in a party which has anything to do with an odious character like that.
I think the next PM, whoever it is, should get Mr Farage some recognition in the 2019/2020 honours list. We wouldn't have had the referendum without UKIP and Mr Farage.
Farage will be out of a job as an MEP in a couple of years - I can't see UKIP surviving without him...or indeed with him. The party's finances will fall through the floor and he won't be able to draw his fat MEP salary and expenses after Brexit.
At a local level UKIP are a reg-bag of oddballs and malcontents held together with a common goal - that's been secured...the adhesive that binds them has gone and so too will the party.
If May is the next PM the Kippers will be laughing all the way to the polling booth in the North of the country as she opts for EEA+++ and is wide open to accusations that nothing has actually changed despite the clear mandate from the voters.
There is no clear mandate. You spout utter garbage. 3.8% is a tiny margin.
It's not huge, but there is a clear mandate for Leave. What there is not is a clear mandate against EEA+++ or any other option under the Leave umbrella - all are up for grabs. Some will make a lot of people very angry, but there is not a clear and direct mandate for any option within Leave, only for Leave.
It's not a clear mandate - if it were an opinion poll it would be within the margin of error
Unlike an opinion poll, in the referendum every qualifying voter was able to vote REMAIN, LEAVE or abstain.
There is no margin of error.
Yes I am aware of that, duh. The point I make is that the result was so close that IF it had been an opinion poll, the difference would have been within a margin of error
In the 60/70's this was understood, things like the Central Office of Information still existed, and the 1975 campaign was preceded by an approximately six-year softening up campaign that started in the late 60's, stretched across three governments, and cumulated in 1975 in pro-EEC press coverage and a 2-to-1 outcome for STAY.
In 2016 Cameron thought that all he had to do was tell people the truth as he saw it. It's a hell of a lot more difficult than that.
I actually have a huge problem with "softening up campaigns" its basically using public money to brainwash the population into accepting the establishment's point of view.
The reality is that EEA Scotland within the UK is a far far better deal for Scotland than an 'independent' Scotland as a province of the EU. Sturgeon (great politician) knows this, and her carefully worded statements reflect it.
The idea of Scotland surrendering newly acquired fisheries and farming rights to the EU for the sake of what boils down to some politically correct posturing would be an extremely hard sell. As would joining the euro. It would be giving up independence gained.
Indyref 2 campaigners are a useful negotiating tool. It's good for Sturgeon and Scotland that they're there, but they will essentially be marched up and down the hill like The Grand Old Duke of York's 10,000 men. They won't get what they want.
Lucky, as a dispassionate analysis, I think that is right. But I think that rational analysis is only part of the picture. The Scots have been fed a relentless diet of Independence for a long while now - it has had its affect on the emotional basis of the country, and that will play as great, if not a greater role, in future referenda as the rational analysis.
This mirrors, of course, British attitudes towards 'independence' from the EU. In that respect, Juncker had something of a point - the steady, relentless anti-EU commentary did eventually change the emotional stance of the nation on EU membership. But he was wrong to attribute this to the UK leadership - to the extent they backed it at all, it was reluctantly and against their own inclinations (or for more limited tactical political considerations) in lagging response to public sentiment. It's easy to blame the Press, but they only do what sells papers, and the anti-EU message wouldn't have sold papers without it resonating. The real motive force was a groundswell of public frustration that the political leadership (both British and EU) failed to respond to in a timely or effective fashion.
I agree. I don't think anyone really liked the UK last time around, and even less like it now. That will inevitably play its part. Yet polling figures for Indy still aren't spectacular.
- neither side wants to back down, but any softening there is seems to be more on the Leave side. There is genuine shock at the effects on the pound and fears of further economic trouble
Yes I can see it now, Dave the Plumber and his mates down the pub, "Did you see that Sterling fell by 2p against the USD last night", "Christ we better forget all we said about immigration and get into the EEA or EFTA right now" "Calm down my son, it's okay because the FTSE is up 2% on the week".
Trump and Clinton invoking BREXIT on the campaign trail. Trump saying he was on the 'right side' standing with the people, Hillary with the elites. Hillary saying Trump said BREXIT was a good thing as it would get more rich people to his golf course and he was not a serious enough figure for the job
Trump also reminded supporters it was the Clintons who tooks the US into NAFTA and allowed China to enter the WTO and steal IP and cheat on its currency. Blames trade with China on trade deficit and the Clintons again for destroying jobs for dealing with S Korea and invokes Sanders who said Clinton trade deals cost US jobs
When Trump says China cheats on its currency, he means the yuan is artificially depressed to boost exports and growth. Likewise with Germany in the Euro. But in Britain where exchange rates are seen as a national virility symbol, it is a tragedy the pound fell.
Serious question - for once. Why is it that with so many northern voters cry out that "the immigrants are taking our jobs" we don't have high levels of unemployment? In fact we have record levels of UK citizens in work than ever in our history?
We should remember that we have 1.6 million unemployed. If you read the Guardian pieces pre-referendum, a lot of the complaints were that immigrants were suppressing wages.
We have record employment, true. I haven't drilled down into the figures in any great detail. However, I'd guess there are a lot of part time workers (~8.3 million last time I did look), a lot of bogus self-employed folk struggling by, and a host of minimum wage roles.
We've developed a really bad managerial view of the world in the last few years. "GDP growth is robust" we chortle. "Look, record employment, pass the marmalade, Amelia". "House prices rising again? Shall we look into another BTL, darling?".
Prosperity, like the future, is unevenly distributed. Fortunately, we've had our one exercise in direct democracy, so we can go back to ignoring the unfortunates. Did you see US PMIs were very robust this quarter? Marvellous!
This is the problem with tax credits - they enable workers to get by on "poor" jobs because their family income is topped up by tax credits. Unemployment is effectively artificially low or at least lower than it would be if tax credits weren't there.
It's something that needs to be dealt with moving forward - my criticism of the Tory treatment of tax credits in the past was the fact that they were going to pull away the support from those already in receipt of it...that doesn't mean that it should not be addressed for new claimants
In 2016 Cameron thought that all he had to do was tell people the truth as he saw it. It's a hell of a lot more difficult than that.
I think that is insulting to Cameron and ignores his renegotiation. We will never know the truth of it but my view is that he thought he could do a Wilson and, in his arrogance, believed his own spin doctors' spin about him being a massive electoral asset and people would trust him.
Serious question - for once. Why is it that with so many northern voters cry out that "the immigrants are taking our jobs" we don't have high levels of unemployment? In fact we have record levels of UK citizens in work than ever in our history?
The implication is that plenty of plumbers, electricians and other tradesmen are working the checkouts in Asda or doing some ZHC deal at a distribution warehouse.
- neither side wants to back down, but any softening there is seems to be more on the Leave side. There is genuine shock at the effects on the pound and fears of further economic trouble
Yes I can see it now, Dave the Plumber and his mates down the pub, "Did you see that Sterling fell by 2p against the USD last night", "Christ we better forget all we said about immigration and get into the EEA or EFTA right now" "Calm down my son, it's okay because the FTSE is up 2% on the week".
What a gross stereotype of the WWC
It also doesn't take into account the scores of people who voted to leave but are relatively comfortable with free movement.
If Leadsom wins and give Farage any kind of role I'll burn my membership and cancel my direct debit. There is no way I'll ever be in a party which has anything to do with an odious character like that.
I think the next PM, whoever it is, should get Mr Farage some recognition in the 2019/2020 honours list. We wouldn't have had the referendum without UKIP and Mr Farage.
Farage will be out of a job as an MEP in a couple of years - I can't see UKIP surviving without him...or indeed with him. The party's finances will fall through the floor and he won't be able to draw his fat MEP salary and expenses after Brexit.
At a local level UKIP are a reg-bag of oddballs and malcontents held together with a common goal - that's been secured...the adhesive that binds them has gone and so too will the party.
If May is the next PM the Kippers will be laughing all the way to the polling booth in the North of the country as she opts for EEA+++ and is wide open to accusations that nothing has actually changed despite the clear mandate from the voters.
I can only speak from personal experience - I live in rural Dorset and UKIP have been around a while. The posters pop up around election time then they disappear again. Local elections they stand in name only, no campaign no effort and the usual suspects garner around 15% of the vote. What they will miss is the oxygen of publicity they get from the EU parliament elections where they do well.
Wiltshire is similar - 1 out of 98 unitary councillors. Leave won 52-48 despite being Tory Shire territory.
Did you see any Leave/Remain posters up, where you are? – I’m in Salisbury, but apart from the bumph that cascaded through the letterbox in the final weeks, I saw nothing else.
Two VoteLeave slips through the door in the final week, nothing in the campaign itself from Remain (gov leaflet and a BSE thing months earlier). A couple of VoteLeave posters, and a massive one on the side of a house facing a street (talking 10 by 12), but very very few.This is down in Trowbridge.
Worth remembering over the next few days sensible Tories will be worried about UKIP entryism to the party. The next leader will get to re shape the leadership rules with the parliamentary party and only have to look across and see the momentum takeover that led to Corbyn. That with Farage cryptic comments about the leadership contenders on LBC the other day will have made it very clear this is a high possibility.
Long term - as brexit pain is inflicted on the masses - those who promised leave nirvana will be very unpopular- and the centre of gravity will shift. Will the usually ruthless Tory machine spot this and prepare? I suspect so,
The Scots have been fed a relentless diet of Independence for a long while now - it has had its affect on the emotional basis of the country, and that will play as great, if not a greater role, in future referenda as the rational analysis.
Since the UK/Scottish media has been largely & notably averse to independence, who has been doing the relentless feeding?
- neither side wants to back down, but any softening there is seems to be more on the Leave side. There is genuine shock at the effects on the pound and fears of further economic trouble
Yes I can see it now, Dave the Plumber and his mates down the pub, "Did you see that Sterling fell by 2p against the USD last night", "Christ we better forget all we said about immigration and get into the EEA or EFTA right now" "Calm down my son, it's okay because the FTSE is up 2% on the week".
What a gross stereotype of the WWC
Working class voters have done all the Tory Leavers needed them to do. They can be forgotten again now. Or despised once more.
The reality is that EEA Scotland within the UK is a far far better deal for Scotland than an 'independent' Scotland as a province of the EU. Sturgeon (great politician) knows this, and her carefully worded statements reflect it.
The idea of Scotland surrendering newly acquired fisheries and farming rights to the EU for the sake of what boils down to some politically correct posturing would be an extremely hard sell. As would joining the euro. It would be giving up independence gained.
Indyref 2 campaigners are a useful negotiating tool. It's good for Sturgeon and Scotland that they're there, but they will essentially be marched up and down the hill like The Grand Old Duke of York's 10,000 men. They won't get what they want.
Lucky, as a dispassionate analysis, I think that is right. But I think that rational analysis is only part of the picture. The Scots have been fed a relentless diet of Independence for a long while now - it has had its affect on the emotional basis of the country, and that will play as great, if not a greater role, in future referenda as the rational analysis.
This mirrors, of course, British attitudes towards 'independence' from the EU. In that respect, Juncker had something of a point - the steady, relentless anti-EU commentary did eventually change the emotional stance of the nation on EU membership. But he was wrong to attribute this to the UK leadership - to the extent they backed it at all, it was reluctantly and against their own inclinations (or for more limited tactical political considerations) in lagging response to public sentiment. It's easy to blame the Press, but they only do what sells papers, and the anti-EU message wouldn't have sold papers without it resonating. The real motive force was a groundswell of public frustration that the political leadership (both British and EU) failed to respond to in a timely or effective fashion.
I agree. I don't think anyone really liked the UK last time around, and even less like it now. That will inevitably play its part. Yet polling figures for Indy still aren't spectacular.
I feel the crucial change may be that quite a few may have gone Reluctant No last time, not being really passionate about the UK but fearful, and now there seems a few more Reluctant Yes's, who are sad to leave UK but the fear no longer works and they do feel it's had its day.
Serious question - for once. Why is it that with so many northern voters cry out that "the immigrants are taking our jobs" we don't have high levels of unemployment? In fact we have record levels of UK citizens in work than ever in our history?
The implication is that plenty of plumbers, electricians and other tradesmen are working the checkouts in Asda or doing some ZHC deal at a distribution warehouse.
Construction wages are rising at an annual 6% per year. Electricians can easily command a daily rate of £100 at the moment and 20% higher in London. It's unskilled labourers and young people who are suffering, not skilled and qualified workers like electricians and plumbers.
Telegraph on Brexit and BT: "Analysts at investment bank Macquarie believe the telecoms giant’s pension deficit may have widened by as much as £1.6bn to £12.2bn, in the space of just a few weeks, largely as a result of Brexit." More self-inflicted pain thanks to Brexit. What a disaster.
..."believe" ... "may have"....."by as much as "...... "largely as a result of "......
That must rank amongst the vaguest speculative statements from Project Fear supporters. Nothing to do with the management of BT's pension fund over many years?
Worth remembering over the next few days sensible Tories will be worried about UKIP entryism to the party. The next leader will get to re shape the leadership rules with the parliamentary party and only have to look across and see the momentum takeover that led to Corbyn. That with Farage cryptic comments about the leadership contenders on LBC the other day will have made it very clear this is a high possibility.
Long term - as brexit pain is inflicted on the masses - those who promised leave nirvana will be very unpopular- and the centre of gravity will shift. Will the usually ruthless Tory machine spot this and prepare? I suspect so,
I'm pretty sure new entrants joining now won't get a vote this time. Plus, it's going to be hard to spot a UKIP entrant from a went-to-UKIP-disgruntled-but-happy-to-be-a-returnee.
If Leadsom wins and give Farage any kind of role I'll burn my membership and cancel my direct debit. There is no way I'll ever be in a party which has anything to do with an odious character like that.
I think the next PM, whoever it is, should get Mr Farage some recognition in the 2019/2020 honours list. We wouldn't have had the referendum without UKIP and Mr Farage.
Farage will be out of a job as an MEP in a couple of years - I can't see UKIP surviving without him...or indeed with him. The party's finances will fall through the floor and he won't be able to draw his fat MEP salary and expenses after Brexit.
At a local level UKIP are a reg-bag of oddballs and malcontents held together with a common goal - that's been secured...the adhesive that binds them has gone and so too will the party.
If May is the next PM the Kippers will be laughing all the way to the polling booth in the North of the country as she opts for EEA+++ and is wide open to accusations that nothing has actually changed despite the clear mandate from the voters.
I can only speak from personal experience - I live in rural Dorset and UKIP have been around a while. The posters pop up around election time then they disappear again. Local elections they stand in name only, no campaign no effort and the usual suspects garner around 15% of the vote. What they will miss is the oxygen of publicity they get from the EU parliament elections where they do well.
Wiltshire is similar - 1 out of 98 unitary councillors. Leave won 52-48 despite being Tory Shire territory.
Did you see any Leave/Remain posters up, where you are? – I’m in Salisbury, but apart from the bumph that cascaded through the letterbox in the final weeks, I saw nothing else.
Two VoteLeave slips through the door in the final week, nothing in the campaign itself from Remain (gov leaflet and a BSE thing months earlier). A couple of VoteLeave posters, and a massive one on the side of a house facing a street (talking 10 by 12), but very very few.This is down in Trowbridge.
Although the EU referendum, with a turnout of 72%, had a higher voter turnout than any national election since 1992
Telegraph on Brexit and BT: "Analysts at investment bank Macquarie believe the telecoms giant’s pension deficit may have widened by as much as £1.6bn to £12.2bn, in the space of just a few weeks, largely as a result of Brexit." More self-inflicted pain thanks to Brexit. What a disaster.
..."believe" ... "may have"....."by as much as "...... "largely as a result of "......
That must rank amongst the vaguest speculative statements from Project Fear supporters. Nothing to do with the management of BT's pension fund over many years?
Indeed. Despite the stock market rising significantly post-Brexit?
In 2016 Cameron thought that all he had to do was tell people the truth as he saw it. It's a hell of a lot more difficult than that.
I think that is insulting to Cameron and ignores his renegotiation. We will never know the truth of it but my view is that he thought he could do a Wilson and, in his arrogance, believed his own spin doctors' spin about him being a massive electoral asset and people would trust him.
Anyway he buggered it up and we are where we are.
My own view is that he knew it would be close and so couldn't risk sitting it out when his job was on the line. I'm told the 75 result was expected, so sitting it out would have seemed much more viable.
- neither side wants to back down, but any softening there is seems to be more on the Leave side. There is genuine shock at the effects on the pound and fears of further economic trouble
Yes I can see it now, Dave the Plumber and his mates down the pub, "Did you see that Sterling fell by 2p against the USD last night", "Christ we better forget all we said about immigration and get into the EEA or EFTA right now" "Calm down my son, it's okay because the FTSE is up 2% on the week".
What a gross stereotype of the WWC
Working class voters have done all the Tory Leavers needed them to do. They can be forgotten again now. Or despised once more.
As I said before the referendum, they once again become Labour's problem. The party doesn't seem up to that challenge which means UKIP or whatever they want to call themselves now are well placed to profit.
- neither side wants to back down, but any softening there is seems to be more on the Leave side. There is genuine shock at the effects on the pound and fears of further economic trouble
Yes I can see it now, Dave the Plumber and his mates down the pub, "Did you see that Sterling fell by 2p against the USD last night", "Christ we better forget all we said about immigration and get into the EEA or EFTA right now" "Calm down my son, it's okay because the FTSE is up 2% on the week".
What a gross stereotype of the WWC
Working class voters have done all the Tory Leavers needed them to do. They can be forgotten again now. Or despised once more.
Or - won over to smash Labour for ever. Tough call...
If Leadsom wins and give Farage any kind of role I'll burn my membership and cancel my direct debit. There is no way I'll ever be in a party which has anything to do with an odious character like that.
I think the next PM, whoever it is, should get Mr Farage some recognition in the 2019/2020 honours list. We wouldn't have had the referendum without UKIP and Mr Farage.
Farage will be out of a job as an MEP in a couple of years - I can't see UKIP surviving without him...or indeed with him. The party's finances will fall through the floor and he won't be able to draw his fat MEP salary and expenses after Brexit.
At a local level UKIP are a reg-bag of oddballs and malcontents held together with a common goal - that's been secured...the adhesive that binds them has gone and so too will the party.
If May is the next PM the Kippers will be laughing all the way to the polling booth in the North of the country as she opts for EEA+++ and is wide open to accusations that nothing has actually changed despite the clear mandate from the voters.
I can only speak from personal experience - I live in rural Dorset and UKIP have been around a while. The posters pop up around election time then they disappear again. Local elections they stand in name only, no campaign no effort and the usual suspects garner around 15% of the vote. What they will miss is the oxygen of publicity they get from the EU parliament elections where they do well.
Wiltshire is similar - 1 out of 98 unitary councillors. Leave won 52-48 despite being Tory Shire territory.
Did you see any Leave/Remain posters up, where you are? – I’m in Salisbury, but apart from the bumph that cascaded through the letterbox in the final weeks, I saw nothing else.
Two VoteLeave slips through the door in the final week, nothing in the campaign itself from Remain (gov leaflet and a BSE thing months earlier). A couple of VoteLeave posters, and a massive one on the side of a house facing a street (talking 10 by 12), but very very few.This is down in Trowbridge.
Although the EU referendum, with a turnout of 72%, had a higher voter turnout than any national election since 1992
Oh, effort was put in in other way - Leave had a stall in the high street on referendum day, and I saw a couple of activists putting what I presume were reminders through doors 5pm on the day itself, I may have just been unlucky not to get anything bar the mailout. (78% turnout in Wiltshire)
"Analysts at investment bank Macquarie believe the telecoms giant’s pension deficit may have widened by as much as £1.6bn to £12.2bn, in the space of just a few weeks, largely as a result of Brexit."
More self-inflicted pain thanks to Brexit. What a disaster.
Be interested in seeing how they justify this statement. Presumably, most of the pension obligations are in Sterling. If the pension fund is in a combination of British and foreign equities and bonds, with some real estate holdings, then the last few weeks presumably have added to the value of the foreign holdings (with the pounds slide), had little effect on the British shares and bonds (with both indices rising a bit). So how much did they have in real estate to cause such a massive loss? Or are there other asset categories whose value has fallen precipitously?
This is a genuine question and attempt to understand. If anyone with an investment background can explain, I'd be grateful.
Telegraph on Brexit and BT: "Analysts at investment bank Macquarie believe the telecoms giant’s pension deficit may have widened by as much as £1.6bn to £12.2bn, in the space of just a few weeks, largely as a result of Brexit." More self-inflicted pain thanks to Brexit. What a disaster.
..."believe" ... "may have"....."by as much as "...... "largely as a result of "......
That must rank amongst the vaguest speculative statements from Project Fear supporters. Nothing to do with the management of BT's pension fund over many years?
How in the name of everything holy do you manage to bugger up a pension fund in a few weeks - in a market which has RISEN?
Serious question - for once. Why is it that with so many northern voters cry out that "the immigrants are taking our jobs" we don't have high levels of unemployment? In fact we have record levels of UK citizens in work than ever in our history?
We should remember that we have 1.6 million unemployed. If you read the Guardian pieces pre-referendum, a lot of the complaints were that immigrants were suppressing wages.
We have record employment, true. I haven't drilled down into the figures in any great detail. However, I'd guess there are a lot of part time workers (~8.3 million last time I did look), a lot of bogus self-employed folk struggling by, and a host of minimum wage roles.
We've developed a really bad managerial view of the world in the last few years. "GDP growth is robust" we chortle. "Look, record employment, pass the marmalade, Amelia". "House prices rising again? Shall we look into another BTL, darling?".
Prosperity, like the future, is unevenly distributed. Fortunately, we've had our one exercise in direct democracy, so we can go back to ignoring the unfortunates. Did you see US PMIs were very robust this quarter? Marvellous!
This is the problem with tax credits - they enable workers to get by on "poor" jobs because their family income is topped up by tax credits. Unemployment is effectively artificially low or at least lower than it would be if tax credits weren't there.
It's something that needs to be dealt with moving forward - my criticism of the Tory treatment of tax credits in the past was the fact that they were going to pull away the support from those already in receipt of it...that doesn't mean that it should not be addressed for new claimants
Robert tends to rant about this a little, and tbh, if I thought anyone read or cared about my more stat-laden posts, I'd probably do it too .
We're a very wealthy country that has allowed itself to get very sloppy about how, and where, it disburses its tax revenues. I think there's almost a race memory from the '30s where we're reflexively opposed to means tested benefits, particularly for the elderly.
It is obscene that we're coddling wealthy pensioners with the triple lock. It is unacceptable to have a non-contributory welfare system. It is disgusting that we allow people to spend their entire lives in worklessness. I am repelled by the way we treat our sick and disabled (I've had recent experience of this and it horrified me). I could go on .
I don't know how Brexit will go. I do know that in order for it to be successful, we're going to have to be much tougher on ourselves. Of course, that's just fantasy given we've a government with a tiny majority.
Worth remembering over the next few days sensible Tories will be worried about UKIP entryism to the party. The next leader will get to re shape the leadership rules with the parliamentary party and only have to look across and see the momentum takeover that led to Corbyn. That with Farage cryptic comments about the leadership contenders on LBC the other day will have made it very clear this is a high possibility.
Long term - as brexit pain is inflicted on the masses - those who promised leave nirvana will be very unpopular- and the centre of gravity will shift. Will the usually ruthless Tory machine spot this and prepare? I suspect so,
It's amazing that with all the lessons of Corbyn on display, the Fruitcake element of the Tories are still intending to vote for a leader based on idealogical purity, ignoring any aspects of competence or electability
If Leadsom wins and give Farage any kind of role I'll burn my membership and cancel my direct debit. There is no way I'll ever be in a party which has anything to do with an odious character like that.
I think the next PM, whoever it is, should get Mr Farage some recognition in the 2019/2020 honours list. We wouldn't have had the referendum without UKIP and Mr Farage.
Farage will be out of a job as an MEP in a couple of years - I can't see UKIP surviving without him...or indeed with him. The party's finances will fall through the floor and he won't be able to draw his fat MEP salary and expenses after Brexit.
At a local level UKIP are a reg-bag of oddballs and malcontents held together with a common goal - that's been secured...the adhesive that binds them has gone and so too will the party.
If May is the next PM the Kippers will be laughing all the way to the polling booth in the North of the country as she opts for EEA+++ and is wide open to accusations that nothing has actually changed despite the clear mandate from the voters.
There is no clear mandate. You spout utter garbage. 3.8% is a tiny margin.
No it you spouting garbage. Cameron got 50.1% of the seats in the commons, I didn't hear him saying he better adopt a big chunk of the Labour manifesto to keep the rest of the voters happy. Win is win.
The difference is while VoteLeave put out a platform, they were not the only ones, so we don't know how many people just wanted to leave no matter what and how many wanted specifically that platform. Leave won. VoteLeave definitely played a big part and pissing them off will be dangerous for the government. But VoteLeave did not itself win. Win is win, and the outcome was Leave...somehow. Nothing more, nothing less.
I don't disagree, but the argument that leave should be some shade of remain to keep the remainers happy is idiotic. There was a clear mandate, as in 50%+1 to leave the EU, it's up to government politicians to decide how many votes they want to cede to UKIP after that
Seems to me the PLP are now exploring ways,including legal ones of keeping Corbyn off the ballot even if he doesn't resign. They really don't care what members think clearly.Wonder if all 172 go along with that?
Trump and Clinton invoking BREXIT on the campaign trail. Trump saying he was on the 'right side' standing with the people, Hillary with the elites. Hillary saying Trump said BREXIT was a good thing as it would get more rich people to his golf course and he was not a serious enough figure for the job
Trump also reminded supporters it was the Clintons who tooks the US into NAFTA and allowed China to enter the WTO and steal IP and cheat on its currency. Blames trade with China on trade deficit and the Clintons again for destroying jobs for dealing with S Korea and invokes Sanders who said Clinton trade deals cost US jobs
When Trump says China cheats on its currency, he means the yuan is artificially depressed to boost exports and growth. Likewise with Germany in the Euro. But in Britain where exchange rates are seen as a national virility symbol, it is a tragedy the pound fell.
Indeed, Trump recognises a strong currency is not good for exporters. Trump's statements he will take the US out of the Trans- Pacific Partnership, possibly NAFTA too could signal the start of a new global era of protectionism in the West. If the UK ends up out of EFTA, perhaps under Gove or Leadsom and Le Pen wins in France that would be magnified even more
Serious question - for once. Why is it that with so many northern voters cry out that "the immigrants are taking our jobs" we don't have high levels of unemployment? In fact we have record levels of UK citizens in work than ever in our history?
We should remember that we have 1.6 million unemployed. If you read the Guardian pieces pre-referendum, a lot of the complaints were that immigrants were suppressing wages.
We have record employment, true. I haven't drilled down into the figures in any great detail. However, I'd guess there are a lot of part time workers (~8.3 million last time I did look), a lot of bogus self-employed folk struggling by, and a host of minimum wage roles.
We've developed a really bad managerial view of the world in the last few years. "GDP growth is robust" we chortle. "Look, record employment, pass the marmalade, Amelia". "House prices rising again? Shall we look into another BTL, darling?".
Prosperity, like the future, is unevenly distributed. Fortunately, we've had our one exercise in direct democracy, so we can go back to ignoring the unfortunates. Did you see US PMIs were very robust this quarter? Marvellous!
This is the problem with tax credits - they enable workers to get by on "poor" jobs because their family income is topped up by tax credits. Unemployment is effectively artificially low or at least lower than it would be if tax credits weren't there.
It's something that needs to be dealt with moving forward - my criticism of the Tory treatment of tax credits in the past was the fact that they were going to pull away the support from those already in receipt of it...that doesn't mean that it should not be addressed for new claimants
Working Tax Credits are being merged into Universal Credit, which no doubt will be paying a lower rate.
In the 60/70's this was understood, things like the Central Office of Information still existed, and the 1975 campaign was preceded by an approximately six-year softening up campaign that started in the late 60's, stretched across three governments, and cumulated in 1975 in pro-EEC press coverage and a 2-to-1 outcome for STAY.
In 2016 Cameron thought that all he had to do was tell people the truth as he saw it. It's a hell of a lot more difficult than that.
I actually have a huge problem with "softening up campaigns" its basically using public money to brainwash the population into accepting the establishment's point of view.
Worth remembering over the next few days sensible Tories will be worried about UKIP entryism to the party. The next leader will get to re shape the leadership rules with the parliamentary party and only have to look across and see the momentum takeover that led to Corbyn. That with Farage cryptic comments about the leadership contenders on LBC the other day will have made it very clear this is a high possibility.
Long term - as brexit pain is inflicted on the masses - those who promised leave nirvana will be very unpopular- and the centre of gravity will shift. Will the usually ruthless Tory machine spot this and prepare? I suspect so,
No entryists in this contest. One has to have been a member for a mininim of three months at the time when the chairman of the 1922 committee calls the leadership election. Only Labour have stupid rules that allows entryism.
If Leadsom wins and give Farage any kind of role I'll burn my membership and cancel my direct debit. There is no way I'll ever be in a party which has anything to do with an odious character like that.
I think the next PM, whoever it is, should get Mr Farage some recognition in the 2019/2020 honours list. We wouldn't have had the referendum without UKIP and Mr Farage.
Farage will be out of a job as an MEP in a couple of years - I can't see UKIP surviving without him...or indeed with him. The party's finances will fall through the floor and he won't be able to draw his fat MEP salary and expenses after Brexit.
At a local level UKIP are a reg-bag of oddballs and malcontents held together with a common goal - that's been secured...the adhesive that binds them has gone and so too will the party.
If May is the next PM the Kippers will be laughing all the way to the polling booth in the North of the country as she opts for EEA+++ and is wide open to accusations that nothing has actually changed despite the clear mandate from the voters.
There is no clear mandate. You spout utter garbage. 3.8% is a tiny margin.
No it you spouting garbage. Cameron got 50.1% of the seats in the commons, I didn't hear him saying he better adopt a big chunk of the Labour manifesto to keep the rest of the voters happy. Win is win.
The difference is while VoteLeave put out a platform, they were not the only ones, so we don't know how many people just wanted to leave no matter what and how many wanted specifically that platform. Leave won. VoteLeave definitely played a big part and pissing them off will be dangerous for the government. But VoteLeave did not itself win. Win is win, and the outcome was Leave...somehow. Nothing more, nothing less.
I don't disagree, but the argument that leave should be some shade of remain to keep the remainers happy is idiotic. There was a clear mandate, as in 50%+1 to leave the EU, it's up to government politicians to decide how many votes they want to cede to UKIP after that
Well, yes, but it isn't unusual for winners to say they will govern for everyone, including those who didn't vote for them, which would apply here too.
"Analysts at investment bank Macquarie believe the telecoms giant’s pension deficit may have widened by as much as £1.6bn to £12.2bn, in the space of just a few weeks, largely as a result of Brexit."
More self-inflicted pain thanks to Brexit. What a disaster.
What is the point, the vote happened last week, the voters decided, now we have to make it work, running around rending clothes and spout "Woe woe woe!" doesn't help.
- neither side wants to back down, but any softening there is seems to be more on the Leave side. There is genuine shock at the effects on the pound and fears of further economic trouble
Yes I can see it now, Dave the Plumber and his mates down the pub, "Did you see that Sterling fell by 2p against the USD last night", "Christ we better forget all we said about immigration and get into the EEA or EFTA right now" "Calm down my son, it's okay because the FTSE is up 2% on the week".
Telegraph on Brexit and BT: "Analysts at investment bank Macquarie believe the telecoms giant’s pension deficit may have widened by as much as £1.6bn to £12.2bn, in the space of just a few weeks, largely as a result of Brexit." More self-inflicted pain thanks to Brexit. What a disaster.
..."believe" ... "may have"....."by as much as "...... "largely as a result of "......
That must rank amongst the vaguest speculative statements from Project Fear supporters. Nothing to do with the management of BT's pension fund over many years?
How in the name of everything holy do you manage to bugger up a pension fund in a few weeks - in a market which has RISEN?
Because of gilts. Pensions tend to have high levels of these as they allow stable planning over long term unlike the volatility of stocks.
And it's not Project Fear anymore, because we lost. It's Project Reality. These are things that are really happening.
- neither side wants to back down, but any softening there is seems to be more on the Leave side. There is genuine shock at the effects on the pound and fears of further economic trouble
Yes I can see it now, Dave the Plumber and his mates down the pub, "Did you see that Sterling fell by 2p against the USD last night", "Christ we better forget all we said about immigration and get into the EEA or EFTA right now" "Calm down my son, it's okay because the FTSE is up 2% on the week".
What a gross stereotype of the WWC
It also doesn't take into account the scores of people who voted to leave but are relatively comfortable with free movement.
and the scores of people who got scared into remain, or were loyal to Cameron but were relatively uncomfortable with free movement.
Win is win, and the outcome was Leave...somehow. Nothing more, nothing less.
Absolutely right. But to avoid future political turmoil to the extent possible, it will behoove those negotiating Brexit to come up with a deal that addresses to the extent possible what retrospectively we can discern to have been the prime principles behind people's reasons for voting Leave. To me, these seem to boil down into just two aspects of one issue - control (or, if you prefer, sovereignty). Control of immigration policy and control of our legislative and regulatory environment.
A deal that does not go some ways to addressing this issue properly, as opposed to a superficial fudge, will undoubtedly in my view lead to a continuing sore.
Serious question - for once. Why is it that with so many northern voters cry out that "the immigrants are taking our jobs" we don't have high levels of unemployment? In fact we have record levels of UK citizens in work than ever in our history?
The implication is that plenty of plumbers, electricians and other tradesmen are working the checkouts in Asda or doing some ZHC deal at a distribution warehouse.
Construction wages are rising at an annual 6% per year. Electricians can easily command a daily rate of £100 at the moment and 20% higher in London. It's unskilled labourers and young people who are suffering, not skilled and qualified workers like electricians and plumbers.
Electricians on a £100 a day? Where? Certainly not around here. Try £300 a day and you might be getting close. Same for plumbers and brickies.
This week I have a plumber coming in to switch my hot water system over to a high pressure one; two days work and the bill will be £1600, most of that is labour. I finally, after months of searching, found a brickie to repoint the south east corner of my house - £300 per day.
Good luck finding a decent, qualified sparks in London for £120 a day.
I have to say I feel pretty annoyed at Tony Blair's comment on Sky News that the 48% feel deeply disenfranchised. And is he seriously suggesting that Labour can be the voice of Remain when the party's political backbone - safe seats in former mining and industrial areas voted heavily for Leave.
Every party was somewhat split, but there isn't any doubt that a large majority of current Labour voters supported Remain, as Blair says. The fact that areas which have traditionally voted Labour voted Leave doesn't alter that. Some of the Leaders are the labour minority and some no longer (if they ever did) support Labour.
And where would the Labour party be without those areas? 100 MPs?
Worth remembering over the next few days sensible Tories will be worried about UKIP entryism to the party. The next leader will get to re shape the leadership rules with the parliamentary party and only have to look across and see the momentum takeover that led to Corbyn. That with Farage cryptic comments about the leadership contenders on LBC the other day will have made it very clear this is a high possibility.
Long term - as brexit pain is inflicted on the masses - those who promised leave nirvana will be very unpopular- and the centre of gravity will shift. Will the usually ruthless Tory machine spot this and prepare? I suspect so,
It's amazing that with all the lessons of Corbyn on display, the Fruitcake element of the Tories are still intending to vote for a leader based on idealogical purity, ignoring any aspects of competence or electability
What is perhaps our national tragedy is that neither of the main parties have much talent at the top. Tories have had a lot of fun laughing at Jezza, Burnham and, well, most of the rest of them; now they get to choose between a woman whose only achievement is not getting sacked by a PM who never reshuffled, a double rat, and three non-entities. (While the LibDems are led by a man so low-key not even pb can remember if he's called Fallon or Farron.)
Win is win, and the outcome was Leave...somehow. Nothing more, nothing less.
Absolutely right. But to avoid future political turmoil to the extent possible, it will behoove those negotiating Brexit to come up with a deal that addresses to the extent possible what retrospectively we can discern to have been the prime principles behind people's reasons for voting Leave. To me, these seem to boil down into just two aspects of one issue - control (or, if you prefer, sovereignty). Control of immigration policy and control of our legislative and regulatory environment.
A deal that does not go some ways to addressing this issue properly, as opposed to a superficial fudge, will undoubtedly in my view lead to a continuing sore.
Serious question - for once. Why is it that with so many northern voters cry out that "the immigrants are taking our jobs" we don't have high levels of unemployment? In fact we have record levels of UK citizens in work than ever in our history?
The implication is that plenty of plumbers, electricians and other tradesmen are working the checkouts in Asda or doing some ZHC deal at a distribution warehouse.
Construction wages are rising at an annual 6% per year. Electricians can easily command a daily rate of £100 at the moment and 20% higher in London. It's unskilled labourers and young people who are suffering, not skilled and qualified workers like electricians and plumbers.
Electricians on a £100 a day? Where? Certainly not around here. Try £300 a day and you might be getting close. Same for plumbers and brickies.
This week I have a plumber coming in to switch my hot water system over to a high pressure one; two days work and the bill will be £1600, most of that is labour. I finally, after months of searching, found a brickie to repoint the south east corner of my house - £300 per day.
Good luck finding a decent, qualified sparks in London for £120 a day.
I think most people get semi-qualified people to do the actual work and then get a fully qualified person to check it and sign it off. That's how you get the lower rate workers. Brickies are absolutely minting it at the moment though. I told a cousin of mine to become a brickie.
Serious question - for once. Why is it that with so many northern voters cry out that "the immigrants are taking our jobs" we don't have high levels of unemployment? In fact we have record levels of UK citizens in work than ever in our history?
The implication is that plenty of plumbers, electricians and other tradesmen are working the checkouts in Asda or doing some ZHC deal at a distribution warehouse.
Construction wages are rising at an annual 6% per year. Electricians can easily command a daily rate of £100 at the moment and 20% higher in London. It's unskilled labourers and young people who are suffering, not skilled and qualified workers like electricians and plumbers.
I recently had to pay an electrician £1,000 for three days work.
I have heard, however, that carpenters day rate is around £150 and has in fact fallen from what they used to be able to charge a decade or so ago.
The Scots have been fed a relentless diet of Independence for a long while now - it has had its affect on the emotional basis of the country, and that will play as great, if not a greater role, in future referenda as the rational analysis.
Since the UK/Scottish media has been largely & notably averse to independence, who has been doing the relentless feeding?
The Scottish Government.
And though not directly independence-related, the identity of Scotland as an EU federal region as opposed to part of the United Kingdom has been supported (and funded) strongly over decades by the EU. Contrast this with English identity, the expression of which is akin to mentioning you quite like the cut of Hitler's gib at a dinner party.
The persecution complex of Scottish nationalists, when the conditions needed for their cause to metastasise have been generously provided for over 20 years is ridiculous.
There is no clear mandate. You spout utter garbage. 3.8% is a tiny margin.
No it you spouting garbage. Cameron got 50.1% of the seats in the commons, I didn't hear him saying he better adopt a big chunk of the Labour manifesto to keep the rest of the voters happy. Win is win.
Your analogy is dodgy and your aphorism is trite. Brexit is not a matter of internal policy: it's a matter of foreign policy and it can only responsibly be realised as a result of successful negotiations with foreign powers, in particular regarding trade and the movement of people. Britain can't have its own way in all of that. In serious negotiations, concessions must always be made, as most who have been through a divorce will be able to confirm. Nigel Farage is a competent leader of UKIP, but I doubt he has ever negotiated matters of this weight with such strong parties on the other side of the table.
There is a mandate for attempting to negotiate a deal, and the principle should apply that the terms of the deal should be acceptable to both the House of Commons and the British people. If a British government decides while it is studying the issue that no good deal is feasible, it should say so and call another referendum.
If negotiations go ahead and reach a conclusion, the government should also call a referendum.
It's not good enough to tell the people in 5 years time that Brexit is crap but they made their bed and should lie in it. That would be absolutely crappy leadership. "Sorry, a loaf of bread costs two hours' wages, but it's your own fault." I want a government with the guts to tell difficult truths even against 17 million "X" marks that people have put against a short string of a few words, in many cases because that's what the Sun, including quoting the queen on the last day, told them to do.
'The Scots are very lucky to have Sturgeon. She has played an absolute blinder since the referendum result was announced.'
A grandstanding trip to Brussels to have the Spanish PM tell her Spain will veto Scotland joining the EU.
Absolute blunder might be closer to reality.
Can you point out where Rajoy said Spain would veto Scotland joining the EU?
Hint to save you time: you can't.
It would be fascinating to see what would happen to Scotland is they did join, even if they were allowed to somehow keep the pound they would have a huge budget deficit to fund and would be a net contributor to the EU budget to boot. I bet those first few years would be shaky.
why would they be a net contributor, seems a bold assumption as does the huge budget deficit, hard to beat these armchair experts.
@paulwaugh: Andrea Leadsom wins backing of Tory Right + UKIP donor. Now refuses to rule out Farage from her Brexit team talks https://t.co/O9diwacKuK
Corbyn of the right...
She also failed to rule out the extermination of Shetland ponies. Why? Because she's part of the insidious international conspiracy determined to barbecue every shetland pony, and EAT THEM!
"Analysts at investment bank Macquarie believe the telecoms giant’s pension deficit may have widened by as much as £1.6bn to £12.2bn, in the space of just a few weeks, largely as a result of Brexit."
More self-inflicted pain thanks to Brexit. What a disaster.
What is the point, the vote happened last week, the voters decided, now we have to make it work, running around rending clothes and spout "Woe woe woe!" doesn't help.
I have to say as well after the way BT have treated me I can't get terribly worked up over the news that they have lost their employees' money. (1) couldn't happen to nicer people and (2) it's about as surprising as hearing that a member of Momentum has made racist remarks about the Jews.
'The Scots are very lucky to have Sturgeon. She has played an absolute blinder since the referendum result was announced.'
A grandstanding trip to Brussels to have the Spanish PM tell her Spain will veto Scotland joining the EU.
Absolute blunder might be closer to reality.
Can you point out where Rajoy said Spain would veto Scotland joining the EU?
Hint to save you time: you can't.
It would be fascinating to see what would happen to Scotland is they did join, even if they were allowed to somehow keep the pound they would have a huge budget deficit to fund and would be a net contributor to the EU budget to boot. I bet those first few years would be shaky.
why would they be a net contributor, seems a bold assumption
Per capita, Scotland would be the 8th richest country in the EU27. We sometimes forget how rich we are compared to the Eastern Europeans.
I'm not saying Scotland would be a net contributor; but the fact that even the Highlands only receives transitional EU regional funding post A8 accession is a pointer. Barring Turkey, the current accession states are even poorer.
- neither side wants to back down, but any softening there is seems to be more on the Leave side. There is genuine shock at the effects on the pound and fears of further economic trouble
Yes I can see it now, Dave the Plumber and his mates down the pub, "Did you see that Sterling fell by 2p against the USD last night", "Christ we better forget all we said about immigration and get into the EEA or EFTA right now" "Calm down my son, it's okay because the FTSE is up 2% on the week".
What a gross stereotype of the WWC
Working class voters have done all the Tory Leavers needed them to do. They can be forgotten again now. Or despised once more.
Or - won over to smash Labour for ever. Tough call...
Indeed, the Tories should be the party of aspiration - for everyone.
Telegraph on Brexit and BT: "Analysts at investment bank Macquarie believe the telecoms giant’s pension deficit may have widened by as much as £1.6bn to £12.2bn, in the space of just a few weeks, largely as a result of Brexit." More self-inflicted pain thanks to Brexit. What a disaster.
..."believe" ... "may have"....."by as much as "...... "largely as a result of "......
That must rank amongst the vaguest speculative statements from Project Fear supporters. Nothing to do with the management of BT's pension fund over many years?
How in the name of everything holy do you manage to bugger up a pension fund in a few weeks - in a market which has RISEN?
Because of gilts. Pensions tend to have high levels of these as they allow stable planning over long term unlike the volatility of stocks.
And it's not Project Fear anymore, because we lost. It's Project Reality. These are things that are really happening.
Aside from brexit issues I think people are becoming irritated by Junkers diplomatic incompetence.
Interfering with the Scottish situation was clearly out of order for a continent that relies on UK defence and intelligence capability.
I would guess Juncker will be dispensed with once there is a new UK PM and the negotiations are going to begin in earnest. Not only has he burned all his bridges as any kind of honest broker but his political decapitation will be a nice peace gesture to all sides and sub-factions.
It was the behaviour of a childish man whose only interest was inflaming the situation. He banned everyone from talking to us, then met up personally with Sturgeon.
First real politician from UK that he has had to meet with.
The Scots are very lucky to have Sturgeon. She has played an absolute blinder since the referendum result was announced.
Scotland voted to remain
As did the great people of London.
And Warwick.
The Ballot Paper asked us whether the UNITED KINGDOM should remain in or leave the European Union.
I see from the Times that Bill Cash is threatening to go to the High Court if he disagrees with the outcome of the MPs ballot... should he not be encouraging others to be prepared to accept the outcome of the democratic process. After all, that seems to be the principle being cited, ad nauseum, by the Brexiteers since 24/6
So we are supposed to be responsible for every single nutjob in the country? People demonstrated against Brexit yesterday, Cash is throwing his toys out of the pram for God knows what reason today, Leadsom can't remember things she said three years ago...all part of the daily rough and tumble in this country. Don't care, won't care.
What precisely is his beef? (Recognising of course he is a serial complainer)
'The Scots are very lucky to have Sturgeon. She has played an absolute blinder since the referendum result was announced.'
A grandstanding trip to Brussels to have the Spanish PM tell her Spain will veto Scotland joining the EU.
Absolute blunder might be closer to reality.
Can you point out where Rajoy said Spain would veto Scotland joining the EU?
Hint to save you time: you can't.
It would be fascinating to see what would happen to Scotland is they did join, even if they were allowed to somehow keep the pound they would have a huge budget deficit to fund and would be a net contributor to the EU budget to boot. I bet those first few years would be shaky.
why would they be a net contributor, seems a bold assumption as does the huge budget deficit, hard to beat these armchair experts.
Are you suggesting Scotland will be a net recipient of EU funds?
I think you'll find the EU has needier mouths to feed.
'The Scots are very lucky to have Sturgeon. She has played an absolute blinder since the referendum result was announced.'
A grandstanding trip to Brussels to have the Spanish PM tell her Spain will veto Scotland joining the EU.
Absolute blunder might be closer to reality.
Can you point out where Rajoy said Spain would veto Scotland joining the EU?
Hint to save you time: you can't.
It would be fascinating to see what would happen to Scotland is they did join, even if they were allowed to somehow keep the pound they would have a huge budget deficit to fund and would be a net contributor to the EU budget to boot. I bet those first few years would be shaky.
why would they be a net contributor, seems a bold assumption as does the huge budget deficit, hard to beat these armchair experts.
Weren't we told during SINDYREF how rich an independent Scotland would be?
The Scots have been fed a relentless diet of Independence for a long while now - it has had its affect on the emotional basis of the country, and that will play as great, if not a greater role, in future referenda as the rational analysis.
Since the UK/Scottish media has been largely & notably averse to independence, who has been doing the relentless feeding?
'The Scots are very lucky to have Sturgeon. She has played an absolute blinder since the referendum result was announced.'
A grandstanding trip to Brussels to have the Spanish PM tell her Spain will veto Scotland joining the EU.
Absolute blunder might be closer to reality.
Can you point out where Rajoy said Spain would veto Scotland joining the EU?
Hint to save you time: you can't.
It would be fascinating to see what would happen to Scotland is they did join, even if they were allowed to somehow keep the pound they would have a huge budget deficit to fund and would be a net contributor to the EU budget to boot. I bet those first few years would be shaky.
why would they be a net contributor, seems a bold assumption as does the huge budget deficit, hard to beat these armchair experts.
Why would they not be a net contributor? You think Poland is richer than Scotland?
If Leadsom wins and give Farage any kind of role I'll burn my membership and cancel my direct debit. There is no way I'll ever be in a party which has anything to do with an odious character like that.
I think the next PM, whoever it is, should get Mr Farage some recognition in the 2019/2020 honours list. We wouldn't have had the referendum without UKIP and Mr Farage.
Farage will be out of a job as an MEP in a couple of years - I can't see UKIP surviving without him...or indeed with him. The party's finances will fall through the floor and he won't be able to draw his fat MEP salary and expenses after Brexit.
At a local level UKIP are a reg-bag of oddballs and malcontents held together with a common goal - that's been secured...the adhesive that binds them has gone and so too will the party.
If May is the next PM the Kippers will be laughing all the way to the polling booth in the North of the country as she opts for EEA+++ and is wide open to accusations that nothing has actually changed despite the clear mandate from the voters.
I can only speak from personal experience - I live in rural Dorset and UKIP have been around a while. The posters
Wiltshire is similar - 1 out of 98 unitary councillors. Leave won 52-48 despite being Tory Shire territory.
Did you see any Leave/Remain posters up, where you are? – I’m in Salisbury, but apart from the bumph that cascaded through the letterbox in the final weeks, I saw nothing else.
Two VoteLeave slips through the door in the final week, nothing in the campaign itself from Remain (gov leaflet and a BSE thing months earlier). A couple of VoteLeave posters, and a massive one on the side of a house facing a street (talking 10 by 12), but very very few.This is down in Trowbridge.
Although the EU referendum, with a turnout of 72%, had a higher voter turnout than any national election since 1992
Oh, effort was put in in other way - Leave had a stall in the high street on referendum day, and I saw a couple of activists putting what I presume were reminders through doors 5pm on the day itself, I may have just been unlucky not to get anything bar the mailout. (78% turnout in Wiltshire)
Yes, plenty of street stalls and we had the Vote Leave battlebus down here
'The Scots are very lucky to have Sturgeon. She has played an absolute blinder since the referendum result was announced.'
A grandstanding trip to Brussels to have the Spanish PM tell her Spain will veto Scotland joining the EU.
Absolute blunder might be closer to reality.
Can you point out where Rajoy said Spain would veto Scotland joining the EU?
Hint to save you time: you can't.
It would be fascinating to see what would happen to Scotland is they did join, even if they were allowed to somehow keep the pound they would have a huge budget deficit to fund and would be a net contributor to the EU budget to boot. I bet those first few years would be shaky.
why would they be a net contributor, seems a bold assumption as does the huge budget deficit, hard to beat these armchair experts.
Weren't we told during SINDYREF how rich an independent Scotland would be?
That's why.
Unless they lied.....
Mischevious child !
Reality just looks different through the fog, when the fog is being viewed through a whisky haze, when the whisky haze is viewed through the tears induced by singing Scots Wha Hae.
'She hit everything right in that rally apart from the last shot.'
We do have some cretinous sports commentators don't we?
Time for favorite sports commentary ever? My three favorites are:
1. Edrich caught having a slash on the off stump 2. The bowler's Holding the batsman's Willey 3. Filbert Bayi's stretching his legs and showing his class.
There is no clear mandate. You spout utter garbage. 3.8% is a tiny margin.
No it you spouting garbage. Cameron got 50.1% of the seats in the commons, I didn't hear him saying he better adopt a big chunk of the Labour manifesto to keep the rest of the voters happy. Win is win.
Your analogy is dodgy and your aphorism is trite. Brexit is not a matter of internal policy: it's a matter of foreign policy and it can only responsibly be realised as a result of successful negotiations with foreign powers, in particular regarding trade and the movement of people. Britain can't have its own way in all of that. In serious negotiations, concessions must always be made, as most who have been through a divorce will be able to confirm. Nigel Farage is a competent leader of UKIP, but I doubt he has ever negotiated matters of this weight with such strong parties on the other side of the table.
There is a mandate for attempting to negotiate a deal, and the principle should apply that the terms of the deal should be acceptable to both the House of Commons and the British people. If a British government decides while it is studying the issue that no good deal is feasible, it should say so and call another referendum.
If negotiations go ahead and reach a conclusion, the government should also call a referendum.
It's not good enough to tell the people in 5 years time that Brexit is crap but they made their bed and should lie in it. That would be absolutely crappy leadership. "Sorry, a loaf of bread costs two hours' wages, but it's your own fault." I want a government with the guts to tell difficult truths even against 17 million "X" marks that people have put against a short string of a few words, in many cases because that's what the Sun, including quoting the queen on the last day, told them to do.
Instead have a GE with what they plan to do in their manifesto. Referenda have been used by politicians to help them out of difficulties within their own parties. We live in a parliamentary democracy, the politicians should just do their job and govern.
Comments
I am not for putting a brave face on decline, which seems to be what you're arguing for. I am for someone with a positive vision of turning things around.
The question that matters is, IS IT TRUE ?
"Analysts at investment bank Macquarie believe the telecoms giant’s pension deficit may have widened by as much as £1.6bn to £12.2bn, in the space of just a few weeks, largely as a result of Brexit."
More self-inflicted pain thanks to Brexit. What a disaster.
It's something that needs to be dealt with moving forward - my criticism of the Tory treatment of tax credits in the past was the fact that they were going to pull away the support from those already in receipt of it...that doesn't mean that it should not be addressed for new claimants
Anyway he buggered it up and we are where we are.
Long term - as brexit pain is inflicted on the masses - those who promised leave nirvana will be very unpopular- and the centre of gravity will shift. Will the usually ruthless Tory machine spot this and prepare? I suspect so,
I was asked to leave the premises for asking her 'if it was a blow by blow account'
Quite so.
That must rank amongst the vaguest speculative statements from Project Fear supporters.
Nothing to do with the management of BT's pension fund over many years?
I call BS.
This is a genuine question and attempt to understand. If anyone with an investment background can explain, I'd be grateful.
We're a very wealthy country that has allowed itself to get very sloppy about how, and where, it disburses its tax revenues. I think there's almost a race memory from the '30s where we're reflexively opposed to means tested benefits, particularly for the elderly.
It is obscene that we're coddling wealthy pensioners with the triple lock. It is unacceptable to have a non-contributory welfare system. It is disgusting that we allow people to spend their entire lives in worklessness. I am repelled by the way we treat our sick and disabled (I've had recent experience of this and it horrified me). I could go on
I don't know how Brexit will go. I do know that in order for it to be successful, we're going to have to be much tougher on ourselves. Of course, that's just fantasy given we've a government with a tiny majority.
https://t.co/O9diwacKuK
Corbyn of the right...
And it's not Project Fear anymore, because we lost. It's Project Reality. These are things that are really happening.
Laters, Alligators
A deal that does not go some ways to addressing this issue properly, as opposed to a superficial fudge, will undoubtedly in my view lead to a continuing sore.
This week I have a plumber coming in to switch my hot water system over to a high pressure one; two days work and the bill will be £1600, most of that is labour. I finally, after months of searching, found a brickie to repoint the south east corner of my house - £300 per day.
Good luck finding a decent, qualified sparks in London for £120 a day.
A pleasant weekend to all.
I have heard, however, that carpenters day rate is around £150 and has in fact fallen from what they used to be able to charge a decade or so ago.
And though not directly independence-related, the identity of Scotland as an EU federal region as opposed to part of the United Kingdom has been supported (and funded) strongly over decades by the EU. Contrast this with English identity, the expression of which is akin to mentioning you quite like the cut of Hitler's gib at a dinner party.
The persecution complex of Scottish nationalists, when the conditions needed for their cause to metastasise have been generously provided for over 20 years is ridiculous.
Can't wait for scott defending Jeremy Corbyn post ;-)
There is a mandate for attempting to negotiate a deal, and the principle should apply that the terms of the deal should be acceptable to both the House of Commons and the British people. If a British government decides while it is studying the issue that no good deal is feasible, it should say so and call another referendum.
If negotiations go ahead and reach a conclusion, the government should also call a referendum.
It's not good enough to tell the people in 5 years time that Brexit is crap but they made their bed and should lie in it. That would be absolutely crappy leadership. "Sorry, a loaf of bread costs two hours' wages, but it's your own fault." I want a government with the guts to tell difficult truths even against 17 million "X" marks that people have put against a short string of a few words, in many cases because that's what the Sun, including quoting the queen on the last day, told them to do.
I'm not saying Scotland would be a net contributor; but the fact that even the Highlands only receives transitional EU regional funding post A8 accession is a pointer. Barring Turkey, the current accession states are even poorer.
I think you'll find the EU has needier mouths to feed.
We do have some cretinous sports commentators don't we?
That's why.
Unless they lied.....
This is not a criticism, but an observation.
Reality just looks different through the fog, when the fog is being viewed through a whisky haze, when the whisky haze is viewed through the tears induced by singing Scots Wha Hae.
1. Edrich caught having a slash on the off stump
2. The bowler's Holding the batsman's Willey
3. Filbert Bayi's stretching his legs and showing his class.
Referenda have been used by politicians to help them out of difficulties within their own parties. We live in a parliamentary democracy, the politicians should just do their job and govern.