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Ladbrokes have put back up their market on the next Chancellor of the Exchequer, given recent events whomever becomes Prime Minister will likely be appointing a new Chancellor, although there are stories that were Michael Gove to become Prime Minister, he’d retain George Osborne as Chancellor.
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One day, I will get round to watching Heaven's Gate.
Leadsom becomes SoS BREXIT. Crabb stays in place. Fox remains on the backbenches and is joined by Brutus. Boris to Party Chairman. SOS for Scotland, Wales and NI to be combined as SOS Devolved Admins and net +1 Cabinet new dept spot.
Three cabinet vacancies at Energy, Justice and Leader of the House with others possible from any Cabinet ministers retiring or sacked.
Andrea Leadsom oozes city and fiscal experience.
Perhaps Gove might be persauded to leave the HoC with the sinecure of Govenor General of Australia where his political talents for stabbing leadership rivals in the back is the norm.
Combining Wales and Scotland looks like daft politics given the recent Conservative revival in both -- it risks giving the impression to voters that their country is at best not taken seriously by the party. (And there are already signs I might have been right about the proposed seat reductions in Wales harming the Tories.)
I'm going to nail my colours to the mast here. I don't think the UK should leave the EU. I think it would be a disaster for our economy and it would lead to a decade of economic and political uncertainty at a time when the tectonic plates of global success are moving.
Economic success is the vital underpinning of every happy nation. The wellbeing we all crave goes hand in hand with economic success.
I don't think many votes hang on these SoS posts. Further what the bloody hell do they do all day ?? .... Who knows ?!?!
Which might be best for all concerned. Especially if it involves a posting for his wife.
Assuming May makes it through and is installed as next PM she is much more amenable to other women than Thatcher and in fairness has far more talent to play with. She might want to break the last of the big 3 never to have had a woman and appoint a female Chancellor and neither of the 2 I'd consider are on the list up there; Rudd or Greening.
As an aside, do we know (or is there betting on) when David Cameron will leave the Commons? Tony Blair left the House immediately on handing over to Gordon Brown.
Today lots of people — me included — are suggesting there should be a second vote on this whole Europe business, but we’re told by people in suits that this is not possible. And when we ask why, they say: “Because you just can’t.”
Why not? Where in the constitution does it say we must abide by the result of a plebiscite, no matter how moronic that result might be? It doesn’t say that. It doesn’t say anything in fact because we don’t really have a constitution in Britain. So we can do what happens to be sensible at any given moment. And what is sensible now surely is to hold a vote when everyone is equipped with the most powerful tool in the box: hindsight.
Of course this would infuriate millions of idiotic north of England coffin-dodgers who are prepared to bankrupt the country simply because they don’t want to live next door to a “darkie”. Many will write angry letters full of capital letters and underlining to their local newspapers. And there will be lots of discontent in various bingo halls, but who cares? They’ll all be dead soon anyway.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news-review/our-only-hope-is-a-second-vote-and-a-truly-rotten-pm-ss3ptqwn5
However, the idea of being a backbench MP's wife might appeal to her more. He can still spend a lot of time in his constituency, and it may quench his thirst for 'useful' work. In addition, he'll still have a loud voice as an ex-PM backbencher to campaign for the things he believes right (and perhaps be a thorn in the side of the likes of Boris).
He might also want to spend time with his kids whilst they are still youngish.
On the other hand, it must be frustrating to be a backbencher after being PM.
Another thought: might he have a potential return at the back of his mind? *If* Brexit goes tits-up and some of remain's warnings come to fruition, who better to steady the ship?
why not. he is correct.
Grayling certainly would be a better bet than Leadsom for the job, and remember, none of the last four chancellors have had any training in economics. Admittedly they have a decidedly mixed record too!
Priti Patel might be worth a fiver as well, as being slightly better I the money side and being the first EM and female chancellor. I don't see what Greening or Rudd offer politically (OK, they're both women and one's a lesbian, but they were Remainers and don't have big followings so the tokenism wouldn't be helpful)
Ans: Loyalty and people she can trust in positions essential to her success.
SOS BREXIT = Grayling.
COE or FO = Hammond
Gove and Osborne out, Leadsom only COE or FO if she does a deal but attacking TM is rapidly ending that.
Tip = Alan Duncan into cabinet.
Nobody's fault but lead Leaver Michael Gove.
That being said, I am still very far from convinced that Boris would have made the final two.
"If you believe as I do that Theresa May is as good as home and hosed in terms of becoming our next PM, then there may be some value in backing Chris Grayling, her campaign chief and leading Brexiteer to be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer, where Ladbrokes' recently re-launched market has him on offer at 12/1. Andrea Leadsom is their favourite, but looks no sort of value at a skinny 2/1.
As ever, DYOR."
Its author? Modesty prevents me .....
Curious...
Leadsom has to explain her breathtaking hypocrisy
Gove has to explain why knifing Boris for being a closet remainer was a good thing, and why he hasn't done the same to Leadsom. Yet.
Now the problem is the truth of her earlier statements would haunt her premiership.
I think "unlucky" is the appropriate word here...
Belloc on politicians - lines from 'Lord Lundy'. I'm not sure about Boris and his propensity for tears.
It happened to Lord Lundy then,
As happens to so many men:
Towards the age of twenty-six,
They shoved him into politics;
In which profession he commanded
The Income that his rank demanded
In turn as Secretary for
India, the Colonies, and War.
But very soon his friends began
To doubt is he were quite the man:
Thus if a member rose to say
(As members do from day to day),
"Arising out of that reply . . .!"
Lord Lundy would begin to cry.
A Hint at harmless little jobs
Would shake him with convulsive sobs.
While as for Revelations, these
Would simply bring him to his knees,
And leave him whimpering like a child.
It drove his colleagues raving wild!
They let him sink from Post to Post,
From fifteen hundred at the most
To eight, and barely six--and then
To be Curator of Big Ben!. . .
And finally there came a Threat
To oust him from the Cabinet!
The Duke -- his aged grand-sire -- bore
The shame till he could bear no more.
He rallied his declining powers,
Summoned the youth to Brackley Towers,
And bitterly addressed him thus--
"Sir! you have disappointed us!
We had intended you to be
The next Prime Minister but three:
The stocks were sold; the Press was squared:
The Middle Class was quite prepared.
But as it is! . . . My language fails!
Go out and govern New South Wales!"
The Aged Patriot groaned and died:
And gracious! how Lord Lundy cried!
Whilst I think it would be a poor appointment (I did say the other day Grayling should be given a job that had no details to worry about but where being seen to be a human being was important, and that he'd end up being Chancellor), the bet seems sound to me.
F1: my pre-race piece is up here:
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2016/07/austria-pre-race-2016.html
Almost nobody pays attention to anything, and the vote was won on the backs of people who don't normally vote.
There is no chance 1 million people watched the debate, or the press fall out, and changed their minds because a politician lied, again.
EDIT. Of course Tory MPs and members do pay attention to this sort of thing...
@guardian: The Tory party has probably now passed peak chaos. Not so Labour | Andrew Rawnsley https://t.co/jEzscsWaij
Chris Grayling for CoE - my first belly laugh of the day
Let's have a referendum to hold another referendum !
The EU has had a dreadful decade of sclerosis and morass.
A great man once said: when the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?
Cameron gently moved him out into non jobs where he could do less damage. Chancellor? God help us.
https://twitter.com/johnprescott/status/749493473011793920
We do fish in a fairly shallow puddle for our politicians.
#justsaying
It seems to be a recent convention that a party leader must resign at the first defeat.
That's a "if this happens I emigrate" level of cent
He's yesterday's man. Thankfully.
Blair's meddling (and the cack-handed way it was done) is entirely his fault. He wasn't bounced into doing it, he wanted to.
If that's the sign of a 'strategic idiot' then you have a very high bar for idiocy.
Sadly it was Boris' demeanour and look of petryfying panic on his face when he learned that LEAVE had won the referendum that did it for him. I'll never forget that look when he appeared on TV that morning. Although I still like Boris as a private person, he'll never, ever, get my support politically again.
With Leadsom we would at least get an extra £350 million for the NHS per week.
Meanwhile the country has spoken and expects the govt to act accordingly, what a useless, self serving mob they are.
He has dodged a bullet.
At the end of the leadership election the Conservatives will still have a majority of just 12. Does anyone think they're going to be a united force after recent events?