The only district council in the West Midlands likely to vote Remain convincingly is Warwick, which also includes Leamington Spa and Kenilworth. If it isn't an easy win for Remain (at least 55%) they'll probably be in trouble. (I spent most of yesterday there, incidentally). The Press Association gives an estimated declaration time of 2am.
That's my home turf. Very little activity throughout the campaign. Very few posters, very few leaflets. Most of the students have gone home. I'd expect a tight Remain win, thanks to Leamington and Kenilworth. I'd expect Warwick itself to be Leave.
Remain 57.6%, Leave 42.4% for a 50-50 result nationwide in the Warwick, Leam, Kenilworth area.
My formula is giving a similar result. It says if the result in England is 50/50 the result in Warwick would be 57.46% Remain. I'll give a link to the spreadsheet later.
Ta. I never read it in that way. I always assumed it was something to do with a serious event where all sides agreed it was necessary for security or health.
Yes, I think your interpretation is correct.
I think Iceland did trigger article 112 on freedom of movement along with capital controls following their 2008 meltdown. In that case the restrictions were agreed.
The purpose of the mechanism is to allow you to take quick action in response to emergency situations and justify it afterwards. It's not designed as a convenient opt out to basic principles in the agreement that you would prefer not to have to keep to.
Actually, I think they only triggered Article 112 on Freedom of Capital.
"We've run a campaign, which if you wanted to destroy and break the Labour party, you couldn't have devised a better one. We know that 14% - maybe more of our vote - will vote to leave. It's crucial they felt that they are proper Labour voters, that they are not renegades and have failed some test and are therefore not members of the Labour party. Because if they felt that, then woe betide what's going to happen to us at the next election in 2020."
Does he mean 14% from the 30% who voted Labour in 2015?
Presumably he means 14pp, not 14pc?
i.e. the 30 will split 14-16, not (30*0.14) - (30*0.86)
If half of Labour voters vote Leave, surely it is all over?
Yes. Unless a majority of Conservatives come out for Remain.
Which could mean we got a Leaver running the Labour Party and a Remainer running the Tories.
There is a 50 deep queue at the currency exchange on Fleet Street. The City is already panicing re the result! Makes me wonder if the people know already that leave have won. BTW, going on the experts on this site, from Paul, Plato, MarqueeMark, SouthamObserver, chesnut et al it is going to be a huge leave win.
It could be a huge Leave win.
Or it could be a big Remain win.
Nobody really knows.
My anecdote is that at least 85% of the people I know and work with are for Remain. Where I live (NW3) I see lots of Remain campaigners and posters.
But I know that Hampstead is utterly unrepresentative (not least because it's so full of American investment bankers that there are practically no Brits allowed to vote in the referendum).
Remain par score of 68% for Camden.
Where are you getting your 'Leave/Remain' par scores from and do you have them for the whole country?
Ta. I never read it in that way. I always assumed it was something to do with a serious event where all sides agreed it was necessary for security or health.
Yes, I think your interpretation is correct.
I think Iceland did trigger article 112 on freedom of movement along with capital controls following their 2008 meltdown. In that case the restrictions were agreed.
The purpose of the mechanism is to allow you to take quick action in response to emergency situations and justify it afterwards. It's not designed as a convenient opt out to basic principles in the agreement that you would prefer not to have to keep to.
Actually, I think they only triggered Article 112 on Freedom of Capital.
You may be right. I recall reading somewhere that restrictions on freedom of movement was tied up in the freedom of capital issue. I can't think of the reason for that, so I may be mis-recalling it.
Hit "quote" to this comment then look at the reply from @rcs1000 above. Copy and paste his link then edit the bit between the " " quotes with your link and replace the words "img tag" with your description. Hope that makes sense.
Or alternatively, use the box at the bottom of the page to enter your comment and use the "add image" button which is at the top of the box.
"We've run a campaign, which if you wanted to destroy and break the Labour party, you couldn't have devised a better one. We know that 14% - maybe more of our vote - will vote to leave. It's crucial they felt that they are proper Labour voters, that they are not renegades and have failed some test and are therefore not members of the Labour party. Because if they felt that, then woe betide what's going to happen to us at the next election in 2020."
Does he mean 14% from the 30% who voted Labour in 2015?
Forty and fourteen sound very similar when spoken verbally.
Hit "quote" to this comment then look at the reply from @rcs1000 above. Copy and paste his link then edit the bit between the " " quotes with your link and replace the words "img tag" with your description. Hope that makes sense.
Or alternatively, use the box at the bottom of the page to enter your comment and use the "add image" button which is at the top of the box.
That's if you are browsing on politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com
"We've run a campaign, which if you wanted to destroy and break the Labour party, you couldn't have devised a better one. We know that 14% - maybe more of our vote - will vote to leave. It's crucial they felt that they are proper Labour voters, that they are not renegades and have failed some test and are therefore not members of the Labour party. Because if they felt that, then woe betide what's going to happen to us at the next election in 2020."
Does he mean 14% from the 30% who voted Labour in 2015?
Presumably he means 14pp, not 14pc?
i.e. the 30 will split 14-16, not (30*0.14) - (30*0.86)
If half of Labour voters vote Leave, surely it is all over?
Likewise if it is 14-86 it's all over for Leave. FF is working with Vote Leave
"We've run a campaign, which if you wanted to destroy and break the Labour party, you couldn't have devised a better one. We know that 14% - maybe more of our vote - will vote to leave. It's crucial they felt that they are proper Labour voters, that they are not renegades and have failed some test and are therefore not members of the Labour party. Because if they felt that, then woe betide what's going to happen to us at the next election in 2020."
Does he mean 14% from the 30% who voted Labour in 2015?
Forty and fourteen sound very similar when spoken verbally.
Yes - if 14% of Labour vote leave then Remain will walk this. If 40% vote Leave then Leave will.
(My maths teacher always used to say 'fourteen' and 'fortae' to avoid confusion)
Ta. I never read it in that way. I always assumed it was something to do with a serious event where all sides agreed it was necessary for security or health.
Yes, I think your interpretation is correct.
Reading the articles, any state may take emergency measures but: 1. the measures should be the least necessary to resolve the crisis 2. they should be kept to those measures consistent with the spirit of the agreements 3. they should last as short a period as possible 4. they should be mutually agreed
Where possible, the state should hold off a month before implementing the measures so that the proposals can be reviewed and a mutually acceptable process negotiated. Where implementation is sooner because of events, the review and negotiation still takes place
Any disputes are subject to binding arbitration.
So all in all most definitely not a unilateral brake.
Hit "quote" to this comment then look at the reply from @rcs1000 above. Copy and paste his link then edit the bit between the " " quotes with your link and replace the words "img tag" with your description. Hope that makes sense.
Or alternatively, use the box at the bottom of the page to enter your comment and use the "add image" button which is at the top of the box.
There is a 50 deep queue at the currency exchange on Fleet Street. The City is already panicing re the result! Makes me wonder if the people know already that leave have won. BTW, going on the experts on this site, from Paul, Plato, MarqueeMark, SouthamObserver, chesnut et al it is going to be a huge leave win.
It could be a huge Leave win.
Or it could be a big Remain win.
Nobody really knows.
My anecdote is that at least 85% of the people I know and work with are for Remain. Where I live (NW3) I see lots of Remain campaigners and posters.
But I know that Hampstead is utterly unrepresentative (not least because it's so full of American investment bankers that there are practically no Brits allowed to vote in the referendum).
The pound euro has done well this week and all my family have bought our holiday euros this week at between 1.25 and 1.27 as a hedge against a 15-20% fall on Friday. As the polls are close why would you risk a large fall when you are probably going on holiday within a month or so and can hedge against it
A Brexit vote will most likely send both currencies downwards, so for a currency indicator I suggest GBP/USD is the one to watch.
@Richard Nabavi Just to fill you in with modern culture, Morrissey is someone who professes to sing and once headed up a band called the Smiths, unlike John Barnes who used to kick a football around for a living.
Thanks. I'd heard of Morrissey although not the Smiths. I take it that I needn't trouble myself to listen to his music, let alone his political views?
I think Morrissey is a bit like Asda. Best stick to Waitrose.
No, Coventry I think - the areas add up to net leave -2.5 (I think remain council areas have more people...) also NI + Gib add 0.6 to remain, so the true bellwether is perhaps... Rutland
Something useful - a 90 minute meeting all done and dusted in 20 minutes. That doesn't happen too often in my world.
In East Ham there are NO posters at all, anywhere. No sign of the Labour machine in operation (and it is very effective at local and general elections as Stephen Timms managed to scrape home by 34,000 last year). No canvassing and it'll be interesting to see if there is any activity at the polling stations tomorrow.
Mr Timms is IN and has seen by Mrs Stodge in East Ham High Street on a stall. IN have had a young guy leafleting at Waterloo the past couple of mornings (and I expect much more tomorrow evening) but nothing at East Ham apart from the Communist Party man (LEAVE). Various leaflets through the door from both sides.
Turnout is around 40% in my part of Newham and I'd expect similar tomorrow.
There is a 50 deep queue at the currency exchange on Fleet Street. The City is already panicing re the result! Makes me wonder if the people know already that leave have won. BTW, going on the experts on this site, from Paul, Plato, MarqueeMark, SouthamObserver, chesnut et al it is going to be a huge leave win.
It could be a huge Leave win.
Or it could be a big Remain win.
Nobody really knows.
My anecdote is that at least 85% of the people I know and work with are for Remain. Where I live (NW3) I see lots of Remain campaigners and posters.
But I know that Hampstead is utterly unrepresentative (not least because it's so full of American investment bankers that there are practically no Brits allowed to vote in the referendum).
Remain par score of 68% for Camden.
Where are you getting your 'Leave/Remain' par scores from and do you have them for the whole country?
"We've run a campaign, which if you wanted to destroy and break the Labour party, you couldn't have devised a better one. We know that 14% - maybe more of our vote - will vote to leave. It's crucial they felt that they are proper Labour voters, that they are not renegades and have failed some test and are therefore not members of the Labour party. Because if they felt that, then woe betide what's going to happen to us at the next election in 2020."
Does he mean 14% from the 30% who voted Labour in 2015?
Forty and fourteen sound very similar when spoken verbally.
Yes - if 14% of Labour vote leave then Remain will walk this. If 40% vote Leave then Leave will.
(My maths teacher always used to say 'fourteen' and 'fortae' to avoid confusion)
@Richard Nabavi Just to fill you in with modern culture, Morrissey is someone who professes to sing and once headed up a band called the Smiths, unlike John Barnes who used to kick a football around for a living.
Thanks. I'd heard of Morrissey although not the Smiths. I take it that I needn't trouble myself to listen to his music, let alone his political views?
I think Morrissey is a bit like Asda. Best stick to Waitrose.
So after Leave wins and in 5 years time immigration is still at roughly the same levels what happens then?
You vote out the government & put in a new government that does what it promises to do.
It's really not that hard to control immigration, for a sovereign country in control of its own borders.
Only people with visas are allowed to enter the country.
The government then sets an annual quota for the number of people they're going to admit, for example, 10,000 refugee visas, or 50,000 skilled employee visas.
Once the quota is reached, then the government stops issuing visas until the next year.
betfair is fascinating, barely any moves. Approx £200k wanting to lay Remain at around 3/10. In contrast just over £30k wanting to lay Leave at around 3s.
The only district council in the West Midlands likely to vote Remain convincingly is Warwick, which also includes Leamington Spa and Kenilworth. If it isn't an easy win for Remain (at least 55%) they'll probably be in trouble. (I spent most of yesterday there, incidentally). The Press Association gives an estimated declaration time of 2am.
That's my home turf. Very little activity throughout the campaign. Very few posters, very few leaflets. Most of the students have gone home. I'd expect a tight Remain win, thanks to Leamington and Kenilworth. I'd expect Warwick itself to be Leave.
It does emphasise how much the Remain camp is relying on voters in the big cities to turn out when their best district council area in one of the regions like Warwick is likely to be close. Take the South West for example: where are Remain confident of winning apart from Bristol, Bath and Exeter?
I suspect the next best will be Cheltenham and Stroud
No, Coventry I think - the areas add up to net leave -2.5 (I think remain council areas have more people...) also NI + Gib add 0.6 to remain, so the true bellwether is perhaps... Rutland
Rutland?! That's Leave territory surely. Unless the members of Barnsdale pour out in support of Remain between rounds...
"We've run a campaign, which if you wanted to destroy and break the Labour party, you couldn't have devised a better one. We know that 14% - maybe more of our vote - will vote to leave. It's crucial they felt that they are proper Labour voters, that they are not renegades and have failed some test and are therefore not members of the Labour party. Because if they felt that, then woe betide what's going to happen to us at the next election in 2020."
Does he mean 14% from the 30% who voted Labour in 2015?
Forty and fourteen sound very similar when spoken verbally.
Yes - if 14% of Labour vote leave then Remain will walk this. If 40% vote Leave then Leave will.
(My maths teacher always used to say 'fourteen' and 'fortae' to avoid confusion)
I think you're probably right. No one would be highlighting that they represent such a small percentage.
betfair is fascinating, barely any moves. Approx £200k wanting to lay Remain at around 3/10. In contrast just over £30k wanting to lay Leave at around 3s.
Something useful - a 90 minute meeting all done and dusted in 20 minutes. That doesn't happen too often in my world.
In East Ham there are NO posters at all, anywhere. No sign of the Labour machine in operation (and it is very effective at local and general elections as Stephen Timms managed to scrape home by 34,000 last year). No canvassing and it'll be interesting to see if there is any activity at the polling stations tomorrow.
Mr Timms is IN and has seen by Mrs Stodge in East Ham High Street on a stall. IN have had a young guy leafleting at Waterloo the past couple of mornings (and I expect much more tomorrow evening) but nothing at East Ham apart from the Communist Party man (LEAVE). Various leaflets through the door from both sides.
Turnout is around 40% in my part of Newham and I'd expect similar tomorrow.
Remain need a much better turnout than 40% in places like Newham I'd suggest.
No, Coventry I think - the areas add up to net leave -2.5 (I think remain council areas have more people...) also NI + Gib add 0.6 to remain, so the true bellwether is perhaps... Rutland
Rutland?! That's Leave territory surely. Unless the members of Barnsdale pour out in support of Remain between rounds...
Something useful - a 90 minute meeting all done and dusted in 20 minutes. That doesn't happen too often in my world.
In East Ham there are NO posters at all, anywhere. No sign of the Labour machine in operation (and it is very effective at local and general elections as Stephen Timms managed to scrape home by 34,000 last year). No canvassing and it'll be interesting to see if there is any activity at the polling stations tomorrow.
Mr Timms is IN and has seen by Mrs Stodge in East Ham High Street on a stall. IN have had a young guy leafleting at Waterloo the past couple of mornings (and I expect much more tomorrow evening) but nothing at East Ham apart from the Communist Party man (LEAVE). Various leaflets through the door from both sides.
Turnout is around 40% in my part of Newham and I'd expect similar tomorrow.
Vote leave have been canvassing in Newham according to their website.
betfair is fascinating, barely any moves. Approx £200k wanting to lay Remain at around 3/10. In contrast just over £30k wanting to lay Leave at around 3s.
Lots of nail biting in front of PCs
What is Leave currently?
4.1
£65k wanting to back Leave £40k wanting to lay it.
betfair is fascinating, barely any moves. Approx £200k wanting to lay Remain at around 3/10. In contrast just over £30k wanting to lay Leave at around 3s.
Lots of nail biting in front of PCs
I believe in a two horse race like this Betfair autobalances the market so any price offered on Remain is mirrored on the Leave side.
betfair is fascinating, barely any moves. Approx £200k wanting to lay Remain at around 3/10. In contrast just over £30k wanting to lay Leave at around 3s.
Lots of nail biting in front of PCs
I believe in a two horse race like this Betfair autobalances the market so any price offered on Remain is mirrored on the Leave side.
"We've run a campaign, which if you wanted to destroy and break the Labour party, you couldn't have devised a better one. We know that 14% - maybe more of our vote - will vote to leave. It's crucial they felt that they are proper Labour voters, that they are not renegades and have failed some test and are therefore not members of the Labour party. Because if they felt that, then woe betide what's going to happen to us at the next election in 2020."
Does he mean 14% from the 30% who voted Labour in 2015?
Forty and fourteen sound very similar when spoken verbally.
Yes - if 14% of Labour vote leave then Remain will walk this. If 40% vote Leave then Leave will.
(My maths teacher always used to say 'fourteen' and 'fortae' to avoid confusion)
not 'blind forty' like a bingo caller?
Why on earth would he say 14%. That's a bit too precise must of meant 40% which I think is on the high side.
It's going to be brutal for "remain" if Newham is at 40% turnout.
My figures predict 74% Remain in Newham if England is 50/50. Seems a bit high: perhaps the formula is overegging the effect of the small percentage of white British people there.
It's going to be brutal for "remain" if Newham is at 40% turnout.
Yes. If things go wrong I'll hold my hand up, but the EU and its supporters have not exactly done a great job a) selling the EU to the public or b) getting them to the polls (if that is the sort of turnout they will get)
Is there anywhere you can go to actually see the registered voter numbers? I am interested in seeing what the influence of London is in real registered voter numbers rather than population.
betfair is fascinating, barely any moves. Approx £200k wanting to lay Remain at around 3/10. In contrast just over £30k wanting to lay Leave at around 3s.
Lots of nail biting in front of PCs
I believe in a two horse race like this Betfair autobalances the market so any price offered on Remain is mirrored on the Leave side.
No need to watch both sides, just watch Remain.
What does autobalance mean?
What I said in the second half on the sentence - Betfair automatically mirrors any Back or Lay offer on Remain so there is an equal value Back/Lay on Leave.
IF you think about it as Betfair is a punter-to-punter market it doesn't need to offer both the Remain and Leave options. It could just have one choice, Remain. People who want to back Remain back that option, people who want to back Leave would lay Remain.
As that is a bit advanced for the average punter it offers backing opportunities for both Remain and Leave and automatically balances the money offered between them so both choices are indistinguishable from each other.
Otherwise there would be the chance to arbitrage the two options.
EDIT: So say there are no prices offered by anyone, a completely new market and the first punter comes along and asks to be able to back Leave @ 3.0 for £10. That is the same as offering to lay Remain for £20 @ 1.5
Looks like Turkey will be Remain's biggest lie then....
And it's not exactly a small field either.
I actually met someone over lunch today who isn't sure how to vote and thinks less democracy is a price worth paying to stay in Europe .... paying for what he wasn't clear on.
I asked him to name 1 positive about the EU - tumbleweed.
"Clinton a world-class liar, a total and self-serving ...liar..."
Is there any particular reason you're telling us this? Interesting would be Trump expressing empathy with, well anyone expect white assault rifle owners.
So after Leave wins and in 5 years time immigration is still at roughly the same levels what happens then?
You vote out the government & put in a new government that does what it promises to do.
It's really not that hard to control immigration, for a sovereign country in control of its own borders.
Only people with visas are allowed to enter the country.
The government then sets an annual quota for the number of people they're going to admit, for example, 10,000 refugee visas, or 50,000 skilled employee visas.
Once the quota is reached, then the government stops issuing visas until the next year.
Is there anywhere you can go to actually see the registered voter numbers? I am interested in seeing what the influence of London is in real registered voter numbers rather than population.
If the City were really very heavily in favour of remain, surely the hedge would be buy leave. Leave odds should be outperforming the poll score, not under performing.
Then again, if you are short sterling, the hedge is buy remain
I don;t understand the betting on this referendum at all.
It's going to be brutal for "remain" if Newham is at 40% turnout.
My figures predict 74% Remain in Newham if England is 50/50. Seems a bit high: perhaps the formula is overegging the effect of the small percentage of white British people there.
There is a 50 deep queue at the currency exchange on Fleet Street. The City is already panicing re the result! Makes me wonder if the people know already that leave have won. BTW, going on the experts on this site, from Paul, Plato, MarqueeMark, SouthamObserver, chesnut et al it is going to be a huge leave win.
It'll be 52:48 in favour of Leave. But, Jaysus, I am no expert!!
That list of names brings new colour to the word, "expert".
Do u really think it will be a leave win or are you just being pessimistic in the hope of a surprise win for remain?
Is there anywhere you can go to actually see the registered voter numbers? I am interested in seeing what the influence of London is in real registered voter numbers rather than population.
''A Brexit vote will most likely send both currencies downwards, so for a currency indicator I suggest GBP/USD is the one to watch. ''
Is Brexit worse for the euro than it is for sterling?
Discuss.
I would estimate sterling will fall about 3-4% more than the Euro in the event of Brexit. I would reckon that USD wrote rise against all currencies in the event of Brexit. We'd see a pretty major "flight to safety".
It's going to be brutal for "remain" if Newham is at 40% turnout.
My figures predict 74% Remain in Newham if England is 50/50.
Do you have a link to your spreadsheet Andy ?
This is just my personal effort so anyone placing bets may prefer to stick to Chris Hanretty's version. It uses census data which means population is used not electorates, but I've taken that into account when coming up with the formula. Thanks to PW who indirectly contributed to it. There are one or two which don't look right to me, such as Sandwell and Coventry but I've decided to continue using the same formula for the whole of England. It'll be interesting to compare it to the actual result on Friday:
So after Leave wins and in 5 years time immigration is still at roughly the same levels what happens then?
You vote out the government & put in a new government that does what it promises to do.
It's really not that hard to control immigration, for a sovereign country in control of its own borders.
Only people with visas are allowed to enter the country.
The government then sets an annual quota for the number of people they're going to admit, for example, 10,000 refugee visas, or 50,000 skilled employee visas.
Once the quota is reached, then the government stops issuing visas until the next year.
It's going to be brutal for "remain" if Newham is at 40% turnout.
My figures predict 74% Remain in Newham if England is 50/50.
Do you have a link to your spreadsheet Andy ?
This is just my personal effort so anyone placing bets may prefer to stick to Chris Hanretty's version. It uses census data which means population is used not electorates, but I've taken that into account when coming up with the formula. Thanks to PW who indirectly contributed to it. There are one or two which don't look right to me, such as Sandwell and Coventry but I've decided to continue using the same formula for the whole of England. It'll be interesting to compare it to the actual result on Friday:
Vote leave have been canvassing in Newham according to their website.
Maybe but I'm in one corner of the borough. They could easily have been in Canning Town or Stratford or Plaistow.
There is a by election in Forest Gate on July 14th caused by one of the Labour Councillors getting a job in Mayor Sadiq Khan's team at City Hall. Labour got 57.6% in Forest Green North in 2014 with the Greens pushing the Conservatives into third place.
The TUSC, Lib Dems and CPA all put up candidates last time.
Is there anywhere you can go to actually see the registered voter numbers? I am interested in seeing what the influence of London is in real registered voter numbers rather than population.
"Clinton a world-class liar, a total and self-serving ...liar..."
Is there any particular reason you're telling us this? Interesting would be Trump expressing empathy with, well anyone expect white assault rifle owners.
After yesterday's pretty wild swings, the betfair exchange has been remarkably stable all day today, despite (I think) about £2m traded, with Remain hovering at about 1.32 - still seems bonkers to me. The calm before the storm?
betfair is fascinating, barely any moves. Approx £200k wanting to lay Remain at around 3/10. In contrast just over £30k wanting to lay Leave at around 3s.
Lots of nail biting in front of PCs
I believe in a two horse race like this Betfair autobalances the market so any price offered on Remain is mirrored on the Leave side.
No need to watch both sides, just watch Remain.
That's correct, essentially liquidity is automatically pooled by magic algorithms inside Betfair.
Looks like Turkey will be Remain's biggest lie then....
And it's not exactly a small field either.
I actually met someone over lunch today who isn't sure how to vote and thinks less democracy is a price worth paying to stay in Europe .... paying for what he wasn't clear on.
I asked him to name 1 positive about the EU - tumbleweed.
So after Leave wins and in 5 years time immigration is still at roughly the same levels what happens then?
You vote out the government & put in a new government that does what it promises to do.
It's really not that hard to control immigration, for a sovereign country in control of its own borders.
Only people with visas are allowed to enter the country.
The government then sets an annual quota for the number of people they're going to admit, for example, 10,000 refugee visas, or 50,000 skilled employee visas.
Once the quota is reached, then the government stops issuing visas until the next year.
No spouse visas, student visas etc?
Indeed - and what if there are vacancies in a whole raft of key sector jobs. Sounds like a really fun scenarion for the weak, sick and vulnerable.
It's going to be brutal for "remain" if Newham is at 40% turnout.
My figures predict 74% Remain in Newham if England is 50/50. Seems a bit high: perhaps the formula is overegging the effect of the small percentage of white British people there.
Are you assuming uniform turnout?
Assuming a similar turnout to the general election in each area.
Comments
See:
http://moneyweek.com/merryns-blog/the-options-for-britain-if-we-vote-for-brexit/
Which could mean we got a Leaver running the Labour Party and a Remainer running the Tories.
Oh wait, that's exactly what we do have.
I've ordered Chis Hanretty's work from https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tRE59IkgeRREISpM75I8gR0MdkGe1diParW0hVO109Y/edit#gid=881507152
(My maths teacher always used to say 'fourteen' and 'fortae' to avoid confusion)
1. the measures should be the least necessary to resolve the crisis
2. they should be kept to those measures consistent with the spirit of the agreements
3. they should last as short a period as possible
4. they should be mutually agreed
Where possible, the state should hold off a month before implementing the measures so that the proposals can be reviewed and a mutually acceptable process negotiated. Where implementation is sooner because of events, the review and negotiation still takes place
Any disputes are subject to binding arbitration.
So all in all most definitely not a unilateral brake.
Something useful - a 90 minute meeting all done and dusted in 20 minutes. That doesn't happen too often in my world.
In East Ham there are NO posters at all, anywhere. No sign of the Labour machine in operation (and it is very effective at local and general elections as Stephen Timms managed to scrape home by 34,000 last year). No canvassing and it'll be interesting to see if there is any activity at the polling stations tomorrow.
Mr Timms is IN and has seen by Mrs Stodge in East Ham High Street on a stall. IN have had a young guy leafleting at Waterloo the past couple of mornings (and I expect much more tomorrow evening) but nothing at East Ham apart from the Communist Party man (LEAVE). Various leaflets through the door from both sides.
Turnout is around 40% in my part of Newham and I'd expect similar tomorrow.
It's really not that hard to control immigration, for a sovereign country in control of its own borders.
Only people with visas are allowed to enter the country.
The government then sets an annual quota for the number of people they're going to admit, for example, 10,000 refugee visas, or 50,000 skilled employee visas.
Once the quota is reached, then the government stops issuing visas until the next year.
Is Brexit worse for the euro than it is for sterling?
Discuss.
Lots of nail biting in front of PCs
SurveyMonkey
Remain 50 (+2)
Leave 47 (-2)
http://uk.businessinsider.com/survey-monkey-final-poll-shows-remain-is-decisively-in-the-lead-2016-6
Earlier poll was 24 hours ago.
£65k wanting to back Leave £40k wanting to lay it.
Guessers market, traders only
£ = $1.472 (up 0.46%)
Pound is at its highest vs the Dollar since January.
If there are any private polls being done the above doesn't suggest a Leave surge.
No need to watch both sides, just watch Remain.
Could be a currency trader feedback loop.
IF you think about it as Betfair is a punter-to-punter market it doesn't need to offer both the Remain and Leave options. It could just have one choice, Remain. People who want to back Remain back that option, people who want to back Leave would lay Remain.
As that is a bit advanced for the average punter it offers backing opportunities for both Remain and Leave and automatically balances the money offered between them so both choices are indistinguishable from each other.
Otherwise there would be the chance to arbitrage the two options.
EDIT: So say there are no prices offered by anyone, a completely new market and the first punter comes along and asks to be able to back Leave @ 3.0 for £10. That is the same as offering to lay Remain for £20 @ 1.5
I actually met someone over lunch today who isn't sure how to vote and thinks less democracy is a price worth paying to stay in Europe .... paying for what he wasn't clear on.
I asked him to name 1 positive about the EU - tumbleweed.
If the City were really very heavily in favour of remain, surely the hedge would be buy leave. Leave odds should be outperforming the poll score, not under performing.
Then again, if you are short sterling, the hedge is buy remain
I don;t understand the betting on this referendum at all.
"almost single-handedly de-stabilized the Middle East."
I've lived at the same property for 11 years and have never had an issue in the past, but has anything changed for this vote?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0
Initially I absolutely agree. The question is how quickly thoughts might turn to 'contagion' ie Nexit/Dexit/Frexit etc.
Quite quickly, for me.
today is also the birthday of Bernard Carter-Kenny, the pensioner who was seriously injured trying to save Cox.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/22/eu-referendum-live-remain-leave-last-day-campaign
There is a by election in Forest Gate on July 14th caused by one of the Labour Councillors getting a job in Mayor Sadiq Khan's team at City Hall. Labour got 57.6% in Forest Green North in 2014 with the Greens pushing the Conservatives into third place.
The TUSC, Lib Dems and CPA all put up candidates last time.
It would at least make a point that would not be missed.
https://next.ft.com/content/c2a9c014-37b3-11e6-a780-b48ed7b6126f
Remain: 50% (+2)
Leave: 47% (-2)
(via SurveyMonkey, online)