Sky Reporter: everyone in Ashby (Leics) I spoke to is voting Leave.
It was the same when the BBC vox-popped people in Barnsley earlier.
When, in my youth, I was employed by a company to conduct publicity voxpops I struggled to find any willing participant during the day who had a job. This was a severe challenge because I was supposed to come back with a mix of occupations. I hated doing them and found another job soon after. Getting a decent mix of ten voxpops during office hours often took several hours.
stellacreasy @stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!
stellacreasy @stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!
That is looking towards the Thames from Trafalgar Square. That being said, I suspect the pilot of the plane said something like "oooohhhh... there's a large crowd of people, let's fly near it"
stellacreasy @stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!
Sky Reporter: everyone in Ashby (Leics) I spoke to is voting Leave.
It was the same when the BBC vox-popped people in Barnsley earlier.
All the Remainers are at work. Strivers.
You laugh but any BBC vox pop in an urban area appears to be done at 1100am on a business day. I'm rarely sure that the elderly and unemployed cover the whole scope of opinons.
stellacreasy @stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!
Sky Reporter: everyone in Ashby (Leics) I spoke to is voting Leave.
It was the same when the BBC vox-popped people in Barnsley earlier.
All the Remainers are at work. Strivers.
The comments on this forum are so full of the number voting leave and if they are correct then leave have won. However, it mates were for leave and I was remain I doubt I would want to fall out with them. Tomorrow will show whether the leavers were leavers or shy remainers
Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it
Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
stellacreasy @stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!
memo to the Cox martyrologists. Don't ever think you can take over one of the country's greatest democratic public spaces. You don't own it. You can borrow it... perhaps.
Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it
Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.
85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain 70% Labour 40% Conservative 1% UKIP
stellacreasy @stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!
Rubbish, its flying down the Thames, I saw it near the Tower of London just after 4pm
Obviously a case of mistaken identity by someone.
twitter.com/SkyHarriet/status/745640254636462080
Very generous usage of the term "overhead"
In the second pic the 2 aircraft are heading towards Trafalgar Square, and unless they made a sudden manoeuvre would have been overhead in about 3 seconds. It would take generosity of Warren Buffet proportions not to describe that as overhead.
stellacreasy @stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!
That could have been a quarter of a mile away. Navy helecopters fly up and down over the Thames all the time. At that sort of altitude it looks right on top of you
stellacreasy @stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!
That is looking towards the Thames from Trafalgar Square. That being said, I suspect the pilot of the plane said something like "oooohhhh... there's a large crowd of people, let's fly near it"
Remainers in panic as extra-special rally goes pear-shaped. HIghlights the politicalisation of the sad killing.
Sky Reporter: everyone in Ashby (Leics) I spoke to is voting Leave.
It was the same when the BBC vox-popped people in Barnsley earlier.
When, in my youth, I was employed by a company to conduct publicity voxpops I struggled to find any willing participant during the day who had a job. This was a severe challenge because I was supposed to come back with a mix of occupations. I hated doing them and found another job soon after. Getting a decent mix of ten voxpops during office hours often took several hours.
Interesting post.
I wonder why they bother with vox pops - the news is quite start, rarely is there time to cover a complex story in any depth, and vox pops eat in considerably to the the presentation time. Would make much more sense to have one of those dreaded experts witter on for 30 seconds than a bunch of not-actually-random (and therefore unlikely to be truly representative) people.
I assumed vox pops were just cheaper, but you're making it sound like that isn't the overriding reason!
stellacreasy @stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!
I don't think anyone gives a, um, flying f*ck any more. I couldn't believe, when I got back from Calabria, yesterday, that the news was still banging on about poor Jo Cox, this time it was her husband crying on TV.
It was a horrible murder, and a terrible crime, and those motherless kids deserve all the hugs in the universe, but, really, get a grip. Her death is now very clearly being exploited, indeed over-exploited, by the REMAINIANS.
A memorial tribute to her, in Trafalgar Square, THE DAY BEFORE THE VOTE??
Eww. Ugh. Pfff. Enuff. They can fly a zillion zeppelins for all I care. We have a nation's future to decide.
Her husband has an er "interesting" recent past. All for charity of course.
The words of a man who knows he has lost, and so isn't even bothering to pretend anymore.
"Asked about the consequences of a Brexit vote, Mr Juncker made it clear there would be no scope for further negotiations over better terms to try to keep the UK on board... "Out is out"...
It is understood Mr Juncker was not referring to the prospect of future reforms in the event of the UK voting to remain in the EU, something Mr Cameron has insisted will continue."
stellacreasy @stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!
Rubbish, its flying down the Thames, I saw it near the Tower of London just after 4pm
Obviously a case of mistaken identity by someone.
twitter.com/SkyHarriet/status/745640254636462080
Very generous usage of the term "overhead"
In the second pic the 2 aircraft are heading towards Trafalgar Square, and unless they made a sudden manoeuvre would have been overhead in about 3 seconds. It would take generosity of Warren Buffet proportions not to describe that as overhead.
Based on the assumption the first picture was taken first
Also, I don't think there would be possible to get the angle on the first picture from Trafalgar square if it was taken *after* they had passed over.
Sky Reporter: everyone in Ashby (Leics) I spoke to is voting Leave.
It was the same when the BBC vox-popped people in Barnsley earlier.
All the Remainers are at work. Strivers.
The comments on this forum are so full of the number voting leave and if they are correct then leave have won. However, it mates were for leave and I was remain I doubt I would want to fall out with them. Tomorrow will show whether the leavers were leavers or shy remainers
I know others on both sides disagree with me but I have never considered the anecdotal evidence as anything other than wishful thinking. There are so many factors playing into how people interact with someone in the street that I really don't think it is possible to draw any meaningful conclusions.
Obviously I would love to be wrong but I will only believe that Leave have won when the official call is made in Manchester
I'll be quite happy if Gove was made Northern Ireland Secretary
Looking ahead, after Remain wins and the Eurozone collapses around Greek default, contagion takes affect and the working classes revolt on the streets of Lisbon, Rome and Paris, I suspect Gove may be able to correctly suggest he won the intellectual argument.
A fine and lucid essay by a Galician professor (Jean Monnet chairholder!) asking the Brits to leave, for the sake of Britain, and for the future of democracy in Europe.
This has been my view throughout: us leaving the EU would be good for both us and the rest of the EU.
The biggest mistake that was made was not using this as an opportunity to change the EU into Eurozone plus Associate Members. Not two speed, but two destinations. One a political union, the other an economic one.
We would have taken Sweden and Denmark with us for sure, and possibly Poland.
I tend to agree but the question is why did that not happen? Perhaps because Cameron didn't want it so he never asked. Perhaps because the EU would have refused it utterly. Who knows we will have to wait for the memoirs and the historians.
I spend a lot of time with EU politicians, and mostly they're obsessed with their own problems. They want to make the Eurozone work, within the limits imposed by their own electorates. Most of all, they want to get re-elected, and they don't want the train to come off the track.
They are certainly not doctrinaire. Schauble, and most senior German politicians, would rather Greece had chosen to leave the Euro than to stay. They thought Grexit would make the Eurozone stronger, rather than weaker, and would free up resources to use on countries that had gone through painful reform programmes.
If David Cameron had gone to Copenhagen and Stockholm and put together a non-Eurozone grouping, and then gone together to discuss with the Eurozone states about what could be done to enable: (a) the EZ to make the reforms it needs to survive, and (b) how non-EZ countries could opt out of the political union, I think it would have been welcomed rather than rebuffed. Simply, Schauble and Macron don't want to spend their time arguing with Cameron, they want to fix the problems they have.
So, why didn't this happen?
Because Cameron wanted to get the Euro "thing" done and behind him. Formally changing the EU treaties into Eurozone and Associate Member would have involved years of negotiating between the non-EZ countries, and a whole new treaty. 2020 would be a best case scenario, and 2022 might have been more likely.
If it is a narrow Remain, as seems likely, changing the treaties to enshrine the Associate Member status is still a necessity. We need to build an alliance of non-Eurozone countries. And I would hope that is what the sensible Leavers in the Conservative Party will have as their goal in such a situation.
Thanks for that, Mr. Robert a very interesting and informative post.
stellacreasy @stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!
Rubbish, its flying down the Thames, I saw it near the Tower of London just after 4pm
Obviously a case of mistaken identity by someone.
twitter.com/SkyHarriet/status/745640254636462080
Very generous usage of the term "overhead"
In the second pic the 2 aircraft are heading towards Trafalgar Square, and unless they made a sudden manoeuvre would have been overhead in about 3 seconds. It would take generosity of Warren Buffet proportions not to describe that as overhead.
I suspect they changed course where the river did. At that altitude aircraft & choppers tend to fly directly over the river thames following all its bends and loops.
Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it
Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.
85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain 70% Labour 40% Conservative 1% UKIP
= Remain 53-53%
The unknown is turnout. If it's higher than a general election, which way will the new voters break?
Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it
Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
stellacreasy @stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!
That could have been a quarter of a mile away. Navy helecopters fly up and down over the Thames all the time. At that sort of altitude it looks right on top of you
Context is king and trying to compare this to aircraft on final approach to Heathrow is nonsense. Think about how it will look on TV media. Of course, that may be the tactic.
Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it
Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.
85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain 70% Labour 40% Conservative 1% UKIP
= Remain 53-53%
Remain 53-53% is either a very narrow margin of error, or a vote often electorate!
Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it
Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.
85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain 70% Labour 40% Conservative 1% UKIP
= Remain 53-53%
The unknown is turnout. If it's higher than a general election, which way will the new voters break?
I'd say 75/25 for Lib Dem, Green/SNP. That takes the lead down to 51% or so.
Sky Reporter: everyone in Ashby (Leics) I spoke to is voting Leave.
It was the same when the BBC vox-popped people in Barnsley earlier.
All the Remainers are at work. Strivers.
The comments on this forum are so full of the number voting leave and if they are correct then leave have won. However, it mates were for leave and I was remain I doubt I would want to fall out with them. Tomorrow will show whether the leavers were leavers or shy remainers
I know others on both sides disagree with me but I have never considered the anecdotal evidence as anything other than wishful thinking. There are so many factors playing into how people interact with someone in the street that I really don't think it is possible to draw any meaningful conclusions.
Obviously I would love to be wrong but I will only believe that Leave have won when the official call is made in Manchester
Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it
Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.
85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain 70% Labour 40% Conservative 1% UKIP
= Remain 53-53%
The unknown is turnout. If it's higher than a general election, which way will the new voters break?
Exactly, differential turnout is highly likely to favour Leave.
Sky Reporter: everyone in Ashby (Leics) I spoke to is voting Leave.
It was the same when the BBC vox-popped people in Barnsley earlier.
When, in my youth, I was employed by a company to conduct publicity voxpops I struggled to find any willing participant during the day who had a job. This was a severe challenge because I was supposed to come back with a mix of occupations. I hated doing them and found another job soon after. Getting a decent mix of ten voxpops during office hours often took several hours.
Interesting post.
I wonder why they bother with vox pops - the news is quite start, rarely is there time to cover a complex story in any depth, and vox pops eat in considerably to the the presentation time. Would make much more sense to have one of those dreaded experts witter on for 30 seconds than a bunch of not-actually-random (and therefore unlikely to be truly representative) people.
I assumed vox pops were just cheaper, but you're making it sound like that isn't the overriding reason!
It was years ago but certainly wasn't cheap from my experience –doing them was tortuous and very time-consuming, because my employer (quite reasonably) insisted on something that at least gave a nod to a representative sample. You would occasionally find someone normal who would speak to you but then when you told her she was going to be filmed she'd refuse. Most people refused point-blank as they were rushing from one place to the next. As I say, doing the requisite ten voxpops often took several hours and I found the job so frustrating I quickly looked for another job.
Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it
Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.
85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain 70% Labour 40% Conservative 1% UKIP
= Remain 53-53%
The unknown is turnout. If it's higher than a general election, which way will the new voters break?
I'd say 75/25 for Lib Dem, Green/SNP. That takes the lead down to 51% or so.
Sky Reporter: everyone in Ashby (Leics) I spoke to is voting Leave.
It was the same when the BBC vox-popped people in Barnsley earlier.
All the Remainers are at work. Strivers.
The comments on this forum are so full of the number voting leave and if they are correct then leave have won. However, it mates were for leave and I was remain I doubt I would want to fall out with them. Tomorrow will show whether the leavers were leavers or shy remainers
I know others on both sides disagree with me but I have never considered the anecdotal evidence as anything other than wishful thinking. There are so many factors playing into how people interact with someone in the street that I really don't think it is possible to draw any meaningful conclusions.
Obviously I would love to be wrong but I will only believe that Leave have won when the official call is made in Manchester
Yes. Anecdotal evidence is no evidence.
anecdote ˈanɪkdəʊt noun a short amusing or interesting story about a real incident or person. an account regarded as unreliable or hearsay.
I'll be quite happy if Gove was made Northern Ireland Secretary
Patel certainly, Mordaunt too. Absolutely no Government role for Boris. Gove, well, a greyer area - if he apologises for some of his wilder comments then he could have a role in the unifying process. Unifying the country on Friday looks like a huge challenge whatever the result. On the other hand, people like Grayling, Whittingdale, and Raab have conducted themselves with dignity - keep them in place, and put Leadsom straight into cabinet.
Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it
Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
I really have no idea but my instinct says that leave will win but we will see. However, what we do know is that the UK is horribly divided and will not be easily united. I believe the chaos following a leave vote will be mirrored throughout Europe and a coalition of all parties may need to be created to resolve with the EU the way forward and to obtain political consensus. Someone was saying that unwinding the laws would take decades and that the make up of the HOC and the Lords would bring everything to a grinding halt.
stellacreasy @stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!
That could have been a quarter of a mile away. Navy helecopters fly up and down over the Thames all the time. At that sort of altitude it looks right on top of you
Context is king and trying to compare this to aircraft on final approach to Heathrow is nonsense. Think about how it will look on TV media. Of course, that may be the tactic.
Im talking about light aircraft and military helicopters at low altitude. These fly directly over the river.
Commercial aircraft to heathrow are much higher and use different more direct paths. They dont look higher because they are much bigger.
Anything could happen but Remain has to be firm favourite.
Remember what was said a few weeks ago - Leave needs to be 5% to 7% ahead to be confident of victory - to allow for polling station swingback + Northern Ireland. It's nowhere near that.
Today's Opinium is a tiny move to Leave but Survey Monkey move is more the other way. Survey Monkey may not be such an established pollster but did well at 2015 GE.
MORI slight uptick in Cameron satisfaction - in particular 69% of Con voters satisfied with him - when the pencil is hovering that may well point to more Con waverers sticking with him. If 69% satisfied (and only 27% dissatisfied) with Cameron - will that translate to 60% Leave among Con voters?
Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it
Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.
85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain 70% Labour 40% Conservative 1% UKIP
= Remain 53-53%
The unknown is turnout. If it's higher than a general election, which way will the new voters break?
I'd say 75/25 for Lib Dem, Green/SNP. That takes the lead down to 51% or so.
It's funny, but whilst all the evidence points towards a knife edge result, my own gut feeling is that this is likely to be decided at least 55/45 one way or the other. From the beginning I have thought remain would take it, and this remains my view, but a 55/45 leave win now seems more likely to me than the sort of 51/49 result that the polls would suggest...
Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it
Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.
85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain 70% Labour 40% Conservative 1% UKIP
= Remain 53-53%
The unknown is turnout. If it's higher than a general election, which way will the new voters break?
Exactly, differential turnout is highly likely to favour Leave.
What's unusual about this referendum is that older people and professionals (more highly educated) are voting in different directions. Usually it is the same way (GE Conservative; Indyref No) So it's a question of which of the two keenest voting categories turn out more.
I suspect they will more or less cancel each other out. Back to MOE...
stellacreasy @stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!
I don't think anyone gives a, um, flying f*ck any more. I couldn't believe, when I got back from Calabria, yesterday, that the news was still banging on about poor Jo Cox, this time it was her husband crying on TV.
It was a horrible murder, and a terrible crime, and those motherless kids deserve all the hugs in the universe, but, really, get a grip. Her death is now very clearly being exploited, indeed over-exploited, by the REMAINIANS.
A memorial tribute to her, in Trafalgar Square, THE DAY BEFORE THE VOTE??
Eww. Ugh. Pfff. Enuff. They can fly a zillion zeppelins for all I care. We have a nation's future to decide.
Her husband has an er "interesting" recent past. All for charity of course.
Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it
Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.
85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain 70% Labour 40% Conservative 1% UKIP
= Remain 53-53%
No way that Lib Dems are 85% remain, I doubt the SNP are either - Greens probably are. Unless the Labour working class are turning out in droves to vote Leave as they never have before, I'd put LD and Lab support at similar levels - polling indicates this is a fair assumption.
A fine and lucid essay by a Galician professor (Jean Monnet chairholder!) asking the Brits to leave, for the sake of Britain, and for the future of democracy in Europe.
This has been my view throughout: us leaving the EU would be good for both us and the rest of the EU.
The biggest mistake that was made was not using this as an opportunity to change the EU into Eurozone plus Associate Members. Not two speed, but two destinations. One a political union, the other an economic one.
We would have taken Sweden and Denmark with us for sure, and possibly Poland.
I tend to agree but the question is why did that not happen? Perhaps because Cameron didn't want it so he never asked. Perhaps because the EU would have refused it utterly. Who knows we will have to wait for the memoirs and the historians.
I spend a lot of time with EU politicians, and mostly they're obsessed with their own problems. They want to make the Eurozone work, within the limits imposed by their own electorates. Most of all, they want to get re-elected, and they don't want the train to come off the track.
They are certainly not doctrinaire. Schauble, and most senior German politicians, would rather Greece had chosen to leave the Euro than to stay. They thought Grexit would make the Eurozone stronger, rather than weaker, and would free up resources to use on countries that had gone through painful reform programmes.
If David Cameron had gone to Copenhagen and Stockholm and put together a non-Eurozone grouping, and then gone together to discuss with the Eurozone states about what could be done to enable: (a) the EZ to make the reforms it needs to survive, and (b) how non-EZ countries could opt out of the political union, I think it would have been welcomed rather than rebuffed. Simply, Schauble and Macron don't want to spend their time arguing with Cameron, they want to fix the problems they have.
So, why didn't this happen?
Because Cameron wanted to get the Euro "thing" done and behind him. Formally changing the EU treaties into Eurozone and Associate Member would have involved years of negotiating between the non-EZ countries, and a whole new treaty. 2020 would be a best case scenario, and 2022 might have been more likely.
If it is a narrow Remain, as seems likely, changing the treaties to enshrine the Associate Member status is still a necessity. We need to build an alliance of non-Eurozone countries. And I would hope that is what the sensible Leavers in the Conservative Party will have as their goal in such a situation.
It's going to be brutal for "remain" if Newham is at 40% turnout.
My figures predict 74% Remain in Newham if England is 50/50.
Do you have a link to your spreadsheet Andy ?
This is just my personal effort so anyone placing bets may prefer to stick to Chris Hanretty's version. It uses census data which means population is used not electorates, but I've taken that into account when coming up with the formula. Thanks to PW who indirectly contributed to it. There are one or two which don't look right to me, such as Sandwell and Coventry but I've decided to continue using the same formula for the whole of England. It'll be interesting to compare it to the actual result on Friday:
stellacreasy @stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!
That is looking towards the Thames from Trafalgar Square. That being said, I suspect the pilot of the plane said something like "oooohhhh... there's a large crowd of people, let's fly near it"
I very much doubt it. It costs a lot of time and money to get a pilots licence. Breaking air traffic control regulations and CAA regulations, and the criminal law is is damn fast way of losing that licence. Professional pilots just don't do it.
It looks to me like those aeroplanes are single engine jobs. It has been a good few years but there are serious height restrictions about flying single engine aeroplanes over built up areas and for london that basically means you can fly up and down the Thames but that is it. There will also be further restrictions because of central London being the flight path into Heathrow. Furthermore those aeroplanes would have been under positive control by the CAA.
So I think the idea that they were flying over Trafalgar Square is a complete nonsense.
Agreed, but FWIW - if you look at the 10/10 certain to votes (on an implied 77% turnout): 47.53% Remain vs 52.47% Leave, with heavy rain and thunderstorms forecast over London after work tomorrow. It could come down to Gibraltar...! ;-o
Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it
Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.
85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain 70% Labour 40% Conservative 1% UKIP
= Remain 53-53%
The unknown is turnout. If it's higher than a general election, which way will the new voters break?
Exactly, differential turnout is highly likely to favour Leave.
I thought Comres said affluence is going to be more important than age, just slightly.
Comments
Horrible 36 hours ahead for Cameron. "It's a coin toss, Prime Minister...."
.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3592466/Council-BANS-bin-lorry-emblazoned-Union-Flag-case-influences-EU-referendum.html
http://www.iam-media.com/Blog/Detail.aspx?g=fca4e56d-4b7d-4e66-9bf0-66da1f40039b
In this case, the people who are not showing respect are the people holding the memorial. Why get in the way of a democratic campaign?
There have already been umpteen tributes before the vote, why not hold the memorial after it?
Unless of course its a nakedly political attempt to hijack a sad death.
I'll be quite happy if Gove was made Northern Ireland Secretary
memo to the Cox martyrologists. Don't ever think you can take over one of the country's greatest democratic public spaces. You don't own it. You can borrow it... perhaps.
http://gu.com/p/4mdzx?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Copy_to_clipboard
85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain
70% Labour
40% Conservative
1% UKIP
= Remain 53-53%
I wonder why they bother with vox pops - the news is quite start, rarely is there time to cover a complex story in any depth, and vox pops eat in considerably to the the presentation time. Would make much more sense to have one of those dreaded experts witter on for 30 seconds than a bunch of not-actually-random (and therefore unlikely to be truly representative) people.
I assumed vox pops were just cheaper, but you're making it sound like that isn't the overriding reason!
It is understood Mr Juncker was not referring to the prospect of future reforms in the event of the UK voting to remain in the EU, something Mr Cameron has insisted will continue."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36599300
Anyway, I've just made may first bet ever with Paddy Power, who absurdly offered me to 3-1 for Brexit.
Also, I don't think there would be possible to get the angle on the first picture from Trafalgar square if it was taken *after* they had passed over.
Obviously I would love to be wrong but I will only believe that Leave have won when the official call is made in Manchester
I see he's going to apologise for his Nazi comments.
SE England.............. 63,598
SW England............. 57,243
East England........... 33,128
East Midlands...........30,853
Northern Ireland...... 24,190
London.................... 16,459
West Midlands.......... 13,914
Yorks and Humber....11,514
NE England................10,501
NW England................. 7,505
Wales......................... - 11,697
Scotland..................... -112,634
Contrarily, the Conservatives are perhaps 60% Leave and essentially all UKIPers are Leave
England: 48.4% remain.
ˈanɪkdəʊt
noun
a short amusing or interesting story about a real incident or person.
an account regarded as unreliable or hearsay.
Referendum Banning Act 2016
1. The holding of a referendum is hereby prohibited.
2. This Act can only be repealed by referendum.
Gove, well, a greyer area - if he apologises for some of his wilder comments then he could have a role in the unifying process. Unifying the country on Friday looks like a huge challenge whatever the result.
On the other hand, people like Grayling, Whittingdale, and Raab have conducted themselves with dignity - keep them in place, and put Leadsom straight into cabinet.
Commercial aircraft to heathrow are much higher and use different more direct paths. They dont look higher because they are much bigger.
Remember what was said a few weeks ago - Leave needs to be 5% to 7% ahead to be confident of victory - to allow for polling station swingback + Northern Ireland. It's nowhere near that.
Today's Opinium is a tiny move to Leave but Survey Monkey move is more the other way. Survey Monkey may not be such an established pollster but did well at 2015 GE.
MORI slight uptick in Cameron satisfaction - in particular 69% of Con voters satisfied with him - when the pencil is hovering that may well point to more Con waverers sticking with him. If 69% satisfied (and only 27% dissatisfied) with Cameron - will that translate to 60% Leave among Con voters?
I suspect they will more or less cancel each other out. Back to MOE...
We've all got a heavy 36 hours coming up. Please don't make it any harder than it has to be.
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 34% (-1)
LAB: 30% (-2)
UKIP: 19% (-)
LDEM: 6% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-)
(via Opinium / 20 - 22 Jun)
It looks to me like those aeroplanes are single engine jobs. It has been a good few years but there are serious height restrictions about flying single engine aeroplanes over built up areas and for london that basically means you can fly up and down the Thames but that is it. There will also be further restrictions because of central London being the flight path into Heathrow. Furthermore those aeroplanes would have been under positive control by the CAA.
So I think the idea that they were flying over Trafalgar Square is a complete nonsense.
46% of Britons expect the UK will tomorrow vote to Remain, 27% expect a vote to Leave.
(via Opinium / 20 - 22 Jun)
OLD CON
OLD LAB
NEW LABCON
UKIP
LDEM
GRN
post Brexit.
I hope your F1 team improves soon.
100% UKIP = 19%
60% Tories = 20%
40% Labour = 12%
33% Lib Dems = 2%
25% Greens = 1%
54% Leave.
Oh wait, this is Corbyn leading.