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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,027

    Back to campaigning. We're having a great reception on the doorstep. Heh

    Do you have your jumper on? :D
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    I think we'll know if it is all over by Sunderland. "One hundred and two thousand six hundred and sixty nine".

    And we will know that that side has smashed it out the park.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,228
    edited June 2016
    Man just cycled past with placards on front and back saying 'don't know, vote Leave' and someone then walked past with a 'Stronger In' T-shirt on
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    StarfallStarfall Posts: 78
    The way the parliamentary colleagues of Jo Cox immediately reacted to her death with an appreciation of how it could help their voting campaign was disgusting. The timing of a memorial just before the vote is the latest in the long line of things they have done to exploit her killing. It is sickening.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,027

    RobD said:

    Scott_P said:

    Charles said:

    Do you think they were actually flying over London vs buzzing the memorial?

    Reports they have flown directly overheard multiple times.

    Coincidence perhaps
    Like I said, do you actually for one second think they thought it would be a good idea to fly over the memorial?
    Do you think it is a good idea to have the memorial one day before the referendum?
    Probably not, but I can see why they did given it would be her birthday (and coincidentally the birthday of the oap who tried to stop the attacker).
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,125
    PlatoSaid said:

    Kay is being a complete nitwit on Sky - again.

    Translation - Bojo is being skewered.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited June 2016
    If Dave is reading this (I understand he might be a bit busy at the moment, so perhaps one of his SPADs could give him a copy later), here are some recommendations for a post-referendum unity reshuffle, assuming a Remain result:

    - Osborne to Foreign Sec
    - Theresa to Chancellor
    - Hammond to Home Office
    - Gove to remain as Justice Sec with a brief to get on with his reforms, and if possible with extra responsibilities
    - Andrea Leadsom to Treasury Sec
    - Jeremy Hunt, Chris Grayling, Micahel Fallon, Stephen Crabb, Patrick McLoughlin, Priti Patel, Whittingdale to remain in place

    - Demotion for Sajid Javid and Nicky Morgan on grounds of general uselessness. Maybe Amber Rudd to BIS in order to kick some a**. Perhaps Greg Hands to Education?

    - Maybe release Theresa Villiers from her exile to NI?

    - Boris to the least damaging post Cammo can think of.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky Reporter: everyone in Ashby (Leics) I spoke to is voting Leave.

    Traditionally one of the places with the highest turnout in the country. 1992: 86.1%, 1997: 80.0%.
    What does the spreadsheet say for Ashby?
    NW Leicestershire — my figures: Remain 44% if England 50/50. Chris Hanretty has 45% if UK votes 50/50.
    So finding no-one for Remain in a vox-pop is pretty scary for them...
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    Back to campaigning. We're having a great reception on the doorstep. Heh

    people in the uk are generally polite and tell you what you want to hear :)
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,771

    Charles said:

    Apparently Vote Leave have flown a plane over the Jo Cox memorial in Trafalgar Square

    Do you think they were actually flying over London vs buzzing the memorial?
    Given the general shittiness of Vote Leave, cf Gove, I put nothing past them
    errr wont that be wonderful Mikey Grove on Friday when you have the one big happy family reunion ? Pally backslapping and drinks at the bar etc.
    Nope. Leavers want Osborne out. Remainers want Gove and Patel sacked.

    I'll be quite happy if Gove was made Northern Ireland Secretary
    Right

    so all those times you told me there would be no aftereffects and that I didn't know what was happening, it turns out I did.

    Really Cameron has totally screwed himself on this whatever happens.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Sky Reporter: everyone in Ashby (Leics) I spoke to is voting Leave.

    Traditionally one of the places with the highest turnout in the country. 1992: 86.1%, 1997: 80.0%.
    What does the spreadsheet say for Ashby?
    NW Leicestershire — my figures: Remain 44% if England 50/50. Chris Hanretty has 45% if UK votes 50/50.
    So finding no-one for Remain in a vox-pop is pretty scary for them...
    On the other hand professionals/middle-classes will be at work, not milling around the town centre.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,540
    McLaren said:

    Alistair said:

    EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 44% (-)
    Leave: 45% (+1)
    (via Opinium, online / 20 - 22 Jun)

    Remain win on that poll.
    Agreed, but FWIW - if you look at the 10/10 certain to votes (on an implied 77% turnout): 47.53% Remain vs 52.47% Leave, with heavy rain and thunderstorms forecast over London after work tomorrow. It could come down to Gibraltar...! ;-o
    Welcome.

    There have been plenty of people (including Curtice) saying it has been shown not to make a difference, unless it is a seriously disruptive weather event.
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    Pulpstar said:

    If you hear "One hundred" at the start of the Sunderland count, it means one side or the other is in the shit and turnout will be high.

    Which side get called first?
    Leave
    Remain
    Or the winner in each case??
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Portugal are having a shocker at this tournament. And Iceland are leading Austria.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    edited June 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it

    Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
    70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.

    85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain
    70% Labour
    40% Conservative
    1% UKIP

    = Remain 53-53%
    Putting that into my 2015 data model, with the following additions, is one of the few permutations that I've tried that gives Remain a majority if Remain/Leave was ever to be a big wedge factor in consistuencies too - 332/318

    Basically, if Labour Leave vote is more than 30%, they're going to be in trouble unless more of the party's MPs become less enamoured of the EU.

    Party Remain Leave

    CON 0.4 0.6
    LAB 0.7 0.3
    LIB DEM 0.85 0.15

    APNI 0.95 0.05
    BNP 0.5 0.5
    DUP 0.15 0.85
    GREEN 0.85 0.15
    INDPT 0.5 0.5
    PC 0.85 0.15
    SF 0.95 0.05
    SDLP
    SNP 0.85 0.15
    UUP 0.15 0.85
    UKIP 0.01 0.99
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    TGOHF said:

    SeanT said:

    thank god this is over soon...

    stellacreasy ‏@stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago
    .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!

    Nicholas Soames ‏@nsoamesmp · 4m
    @stellacreasy @voteleave what absolute shits



    I don't think anyone gives a, um, flying f*ck any more. I couldn't believe, when I got back from Calabria, yesterday, that the news was still banging on about poor Jo Cox, this time it was her husband crying on TV.

    It was a horrible murder, and a terrible crime, and those motherless kids deserve all the hugs in the universe, but, really, get a grip. Her death is now very clearly being exploited, indeed over-exploited, by the REMAINIANS.

    A memorial tribute to her, in Trafalgar Square, THE DAY BEFORE THE VOTE??

    Eww. Ugh. Pfff. Enuff. They can fly a zillion zeppelins for all I care. We have a nation's future to decide.

    Her husband has an er "interesting" recent past. All for charity of course.
    People can read about the allegations about Brendan Cox through a search if they wish. I choose not to post a link.

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,582
    edited June 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    thank god this is over soon...

    stellacreasy ‏@stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago
    .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!

    Nicholas Soames ‏@nsoamesmp · 4m
    @stellacreasy @voteleave what absolute shits



    Rubbish, its flying down the Thames, I saw it near the Tower of London just after 4pm
    Obviously a case of mistaken identity by someone.

    https://twitter.com/SkyHarriet/status/745640254636462080
    That is looking towards the Thames from Trafalgar Square. That being said, I suspect the pilot of the plane said something like "oooohhhh... there's a large crowd of people, let's fly near it"
    I very much doubt it. It costs a lot of time and money to get a pilots licence. Breaking air traffic control regulations and CAA regulations, and the criminal law is is damn fast way of losing that licence. Professional pilots just don't do it.

    It looks to me like those aeroplanes are single engine jobs. It has been a good few years but there are serious height restrictions about flying single engine aeroplanes over built up areas and for london that basically means you can fly up and down the Thames but that is it. There will also be further restrictions because of central London being the flight path into Heathrow. Furthermore those aeroplanes would have been under positive control by the CAA.

    So I think the idea that they were flying over Trafalgar Square is a complete nonsense.
    No SEP (spitfires on fly past excepted...) would get permission to overfly central London; there is nowhere to land clear, which is a clear breach of air law. The aircraft in question must be a twin.
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    Pulpstar said:

    If you hear "One hundred" at the start of the Sunderland count, it means one side or the other is in the shit and turnout will be high.

    Which side get called first?
    Leave
    Remain
    Or the winner in each case??
    I think he is talking about the turnout.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    This Junker business has managed to confuse things in a most helpful way for Leave.

    I've heard reports saying it's all Cameron is getting whether we're in or out. Others saying to only applies if we Leave.

    Whatever the case - it's muddied the waters :wink:
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,027

    If Dave is reading this (I understand he might be a bit busy at the moment, so perhaps one of his SPADs could give him a copy later), here are some recommendations for a post-referendum unity reshuffle, assuming a Remain result:

    - Osborne to Foreign Sec
    - Theresa to Chancellor
    - Hammond to Home Office
    - Gove to remain as Justice Sec with a brief to get on with his reforms, and if possible with extra responsibilities
    - Andrea Leadsom to Treasury Sec
    - Jeremy Hunt, Chris Grayling, Micahel Fallon, Stephen Crabb, Patrick McLoughlin, Priti Patel to remain in place

    - Demotion for Sajid Javid and Nicky Morgan on grounds of general uselessness. Maybe Amber Rudd to BIS in order to kick some a**. Perhaps Greg Hands to Education?

    - Maybe release Theresa Villiers from her exile to NI?

    - Boris to the least damaging post Cammo can think of.

    Convenient opening at NI ;)
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034

    Pulpstar said:

    If you hear "One hundred" at the start of the Sunderland count, it means one side or the other is in the shit and turnout will be high.

    Which side get called first?
    Leave
    Remain
    Or the winner in each case??
    Oh if "Remain" get 100k+ in Sunderland then it REALLY is all over.

    If "leave" get 100k+ then "remain" still have a sniff, but not much.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @Richard_Nabavi Boris Johnson for Ambassador to Ankara?
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    If the Celts do keep England in the EU, I'm doing a thread headlined 'The Celt man has the whip hand over the Englishman'

    Scotland's greatest contribution to Britain since James VI
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,714
    RobD said:

    Back to campaigning. We're having a great reception on the doorstep. Heh

    Do you have your jumper on? :D
    Cross of St George cuff links & bow tie with my Dark Blue suit.

    Tomorrow I might wear my European Union Flag tie.

    I've already changed the ringtone on my phone to Ode to Joy.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814
    Pulpstar said:

    Can both sides please cut out the moral grandstanding over Jo Cox please?

    We've all got a heavy 36 hours coming up. Please don't make it any harder than it has to be.

    It's made me feel quite ill.
    Get a grip.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Iceland and Hungary winning - England to play Iceland in the next round, Lidl's in the quarters, Morrison's the semis ...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    I'm struggling to imagine 100,000 people trotting out in Sunderland to vote for the EU mind.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,293

    I've already changed the ringtone on my phone to Ode to Joy.

    That's become the traditional warm up music for a Trump rally.
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    kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    betfair down to 3.8
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,027
    Portugal... titters
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    VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,438
    RobD said:

    If Dave is reading this (I understand he might be a bit busy at the moment, so perhaps one of his SPADs could give him a copy later), here are some recommendations for a post-referendum unity reshuffle, assuming a Remain result:

    - Osborne to Foreign Sec
    - Theresa to Chancellor
    - Hammond to Home Office
    - Gove to remain as Justice Sec with a brief to get on with his reforms, and if possible with extra responsibilities
    - Andrea Leadsom to Treasury Sec
    - Jeremy Hunt, Chris Grayling, Micahel Fallon, Stephen Crabb, Patrick McLoughlin, Priti Patel to remain in place

    - Demotion for Sajid Javid and Nicky Morgan on grounds of general uselessness. Maybe Amber Rudd to BIS in order to kick some a**. Perhaps Greg Hands to Education?

    - Maybe release Theresa Villiers from her exile to NI?

    - Boris to the least damaging post Cammo can think of.

    Convenient opening at NI ;)
    Europe minister?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    edited June 2016
    Non EU Iceland to win the whole damn thing :open_mouth:
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    IanB2 said:

    No SEP (spitfires on fly past excepted...) would get permission to overfly central London; there is nowhere to land clear, which is a clear breach of air law. The aircraft in question must be a twin.

    Zooming into the photo it clearly is a twin - looks like an Islander to me.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060

    TGOHF said:

    SeanT said:

    thank god this is over soon...

    stellacreasy ‏@stellacreasy · 5m5 minutes ago
    .@voteleave flying your plane over the memorial tribute to Jo Cox in Trafalgar Square is beyond low. Have some self respect and disappear!

    Nicholas Soames ‏@nsoamesmp · 4m
    @stellacreasy @voteleave what absolute shits



    I don't think anyone gives a, um, flying f*ck any more. I couldn't believe, when I got back from Calabria, yesterday, that the news was still banging on about poor Jo Cox, this time it was her husband crying on TV.

    It was a horrible murder, and a terrible crime, and those motherless kids deserve all the hugs in the universe, but, really, get a grip. Her death is now very clearly being exploited, indeed over-exploited, by the REMAINIANS.

    A memorial tribute to her, in Trafalgar Square, THE DAY BEFORE THE VOTE??

    Eww. Ugh. Pfff. Enuff. They can fly a zillion zeppelins for all I care. We have a nation's future to decide.

    Her husband has an er "interesting" recent past. All for charity of course.
    People can read about the allegations about Brendan Cox through a search if they wish. I choose not to post a link.

    but you posted about it earlier and how to find more...
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm struggling to imagine 100,000 people trotting out in Sunderland to vote for the EU mind.

    Sunderland could see a higher turnout than usual because the parliamentary seats are as boring as possible in terms of outcome.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,027
    As things stand, England v Iceland. Who want's to wager we'll be out? :D
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034

    Pulpstar said:

    Can both sides please cut out the moral grandstanding over Jo Cox please?

    We've all got a heavy 36 hours coming up. Please don't make it any harder than it has to be.

    It's made me feel quite ill.
    Get a grip.
    I mean the naked electioneering from Kinnock.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,582
    RoyalBlue said:

    MikeL said:

    Britain Elects:
    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 34% (-1)
    LAB: 30% (-2)
    UKIP: 19% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (+2)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    (via Opinium / 20 - 22 Jun)

    Leave wins in those:
    100% UKIP = 19%
    60% Tories = 20%
    40% Labour = 12%
    33% Lib Dems = 2%
    25% Greens = 1%

    54% Leave.

    Reduce UKIP to 90% (nothing is ever 100%), LibDems to 25%, Labour to 35%, and deduct 1.5% for Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, and the ex-pats, and we're back to break even....
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    nunu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it

    Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
    70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.

    85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain
    70% Labour
    40% Conservative
    1% UKIP

    = Remain 53-53%
    The unknown is turnout. If it's higher than a general election, which way will the new voters break?
    Exactly, differential turnout is highly likely to favour Leave.
    I thought Comres said affluence is going to be more important than age, just slightly.
    Yes, but others, Curtis I believe, say that LEAVE has the edge on turnout.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    McLaren said:

    Alistair said:

    EU referendum poll:
    Remain: 44% (-)
    Leave: 45% (+1)
    (via Opinium, online / 20 - 22 Jun)

    Remain win on that poll.
    Agreed, but FWIW - if you look at the 10/10 certain to votes (on an implied 77% turnout): 47.53% Remain vs 52.47% Leave, with heavy rain and thunderstorms forecast over London after work tomorrow. It could come down to Gibraltar...! ;-o
    Never leave out DKs!

    On 10/10 it's
    Remain: 45.5%
    Leave: 49.1%
    DK: 4.5%

    How many 10/10 DKs are going to go into the polling booth and put a cross next to Leave/MASSIVE CHANGE.

    I presume that means the Won't Say are shy Leave which means it's a dead heat!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    edited June 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm struggling to imagine 100,000 people trotting out in Sunderland to vote for the EU mind.

    Sunderland could see a higher turnout than usual because the parliamentary seats are as boring as possible in terms of outcome.
    People in seats like Sunderland don't often have a chance for their vote to count for anything. "Leave" has a far bigger emotional pull than "Remain" too I reckon.
    This works for safe Tory seats too....
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,814
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can both sides please cut out the moral grandstanding over Jo Cox please?

    We've all got a heavy 36 hours coming up. Please don't make it any harder than it has to be.

    It's made me feel quite ill.
    Get a grip.
    I mean the naked electioneering from Kinnock.
    Ah.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,714
    R U Ok Hun? @Cristiano
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    RobD said:

    Back to campaigning. We're having a great reception on the doorstep. Heh

    Do you have your jumper on? :D
    Cross of St George cuff links & bow tie with my Dark Blue suit.

    Tomorrow I might wear my European Union Flag tie.

    I've already changed the ringtone on my phone to Ode to Joy.
    I shall dress in my luminescent scarlet dragon suit with daffodil face hat, as I do every day of course. I find it invaluable in clearing a path through traffic on the M4 as everyone unaccountably gives me a wide berth.
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    rpjs said:

    IanB2 said:

    No SEP (spitfires on fly past excepted...) would get permission to overfly central London; there is nowhere to land clear, which is a clear breach of air law. The aircraft in question must be a twin.

    Zooming into the photo it clearly is a twin - looks like an Islander to me.
    The chinnooks have two engines as well dont they as do those new SAS hybrid things and they have to fly over the river
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,333
    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm struggling to imagine 100,000 people trotting out in Sunderland to vote for the EU mind.

    Sunderland could see a higher turnout than usual because the parliamentary seats are as boring as possible in terms of outcome.
    People in seats like Sunderland don't often have a chance for their vote to count for anything. "Leave" has a far bigger emotional pull than "Remain" too I reckon.
    This works for safe Tory seats too....
    I think this is where it will be interesting to see if the polling is correct or it falls down. A big group of people who at a GE have zero motivation to vote all of a sudden are in a position where every vote counts and if the polling is correct it really does matter.
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it

    Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
    70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.

    85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain
    70% Labour
    40% Conservative
    1% UKIP

    = Remain 53-53%
    The unknown is turnout. If it's higher than a general election, which way will the new voters break?
    Exactly, differential turnout is highly likely to favour Leave.
    What's unusual about this referendum is that older people and professionals (more highly educated) are voting in different directions. Usually it is the same way (GE Conservative; Indyref No) So it's a question of which of the two keenest voting categories turn out more.

    I suspect they will more or less cancel each other out. Back to MOE...
    Also relative numbers, Mr. B2. At least I would have thought so. How many older people are there compare to the AB1s?

    Furthermore, what percentage of each group will vote against the grain as it were? How many of those richer in years, who supposedly are for leave, will vote for remain? Visa versa for the AB1s.

    I will say that this sort of identity, pigeon-holing sort politics leaves me cold. Whilst some may use it to make themselves seem clever, most of the time it only makes any sense, if at all, after the event. The best example of this was on here before the last general election, we had lots and lots of analysis of how different segments of society were going to break and people totaling up numbers and extravagant calculations explaining how the results of the polls were explainable. Culminating in one prominent poster on this site stating categorically it was impossible, not unlikely but downright impossible, for the Conservatives to get an overall majority because unless they were 10 point something ahead in the polls.

    So all this pigeon-holing may be an indicator but I really can't get too excited about it.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    IanB2 said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    MikeL said:

    Britain Elects:
    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 34% (-1)
    LAB: 30% (-2)
    UKIP: 19% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (+2)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    (via Opinium / 20 - 22 Jun)

    Leave wins in those:
    100% UKIP = 19%
    60% Tories = 20%
    40% Labour = 12%
    33% Lib Dems = 2%
    25% Greens = 1%

    54% Leave.

    Reduce UKIP to 90% (nothing is ever 100%), LibDems to 25%, Labour to 35%, and deduct 1.5% for Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, and the ex-pats, and we're back to break even....
    1.5% for NI, ex pats and Gib is way too much.
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    Just received & completed an Ipsos online poll.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Will people stop trotting out SNP 85% Remain and the like. It's 65/35 at the very, very most and I think it'l be lower than that on the day.
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    RobD said:

    Back to campaigning. We're having a great reception on the doorstep. Heh

    Do you have your jumper on? :D
    Cross of St George cuff links & bow tie with my Dark Blue suit.

    Tomorrow I might wear my European Union Flag tie.

    I've already changed the ringtone on my phone to Ode to Joy.
    Why is your phone playing the Rhodesian National Anthem?
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048

    RobD said:

    Back to campaigning. We're having a great reception on the doorstep. Heh

    Do you have your jumper on? :D
    Cross of St George cuff links & bow tie with my Dark Blue suit.

    Tomorrow I might wear my European Union Flag tie.

    I've already changed the ringtone on my phone to Ode to Joy.
    I presume that us to indicate that, like Beethoven, you are a massive fan of the French.
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    StarfallStarfall Posts: 78
    The one talent Osborne excels at is rubbing people up the wrong way, even those on his side. He would be disastrous as foreign secretary, damaging our relations all over the globe. It could only be done for pure 'jobs for my mates' reasons.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Does anyone know why the odds for Leave are shortening? Is there a poll due?
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Can both sides please cut out the moral grandstanding over Jo Cox please?

    We've all got a heavy 36 hours coming up. Please don't make it any harder than it has to be.

    It's made me feel quite ill.
    Get a grip.
    I mean the naked electioneering from Kinnock.
    Eww! What an image!
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,395

    R U Ok Hun? @Cristiano

    Suggesting he might sign for Rangers, the ultimate insult.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,714

    RobD said:

    Back to campaigning. We're having a great reception on the doorstep. Heh

    Do you have your jumper on? :D
    Cross of St George cuff links & bow tie with my Dark Blue suit.

    Tomorrow I might wear my European Union Flag tie.

    I've already changed the ringtone on my phone to Ode to Joy.
    I presume that us to indicate that, like Beethoven, you are a massive fan of the French.
    I'm PB's leading Francophile. Ahem.

    Plus I love Die Hard 2
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    On a side note, canvassing after eating a huge meal is quite unpleasant.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    Alistair said:

    Will people stop trotting out SNP 85% Remain and the like. It's 65/35 at the very, very most and I think it'l be lower than that on the day.

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/ James Kelly seems to want "leave" to win judging by his blog...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,293
    Starfall said:

    The one talent Osborne excels at is rubbing people up the wrong way, even those on his side. He would be disastrous as foreign secretary, damaging our relations all over the globe. It could only be done for pure 'jobs for my mates' reasons.

    I'm not sure you need to be a salesman to be an effective foreign secretary. Someone like Kissinger wouldn't be thought of as the nicest guy but he's one of the greatest Western diplomats. Osborne has guile and a sense of humour so he might do a good job.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Lovely photo the BBC picked to go with this article.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36599300

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    Pulpstar said:

    If you hear "One hundred" at the start of the Sunderland count, it means one side or the other is in the shit and turnout will be high.

    Which side get called first?
    Leave
    Remain
    Or the winner in each case??
    I think he is talking about the turnout.
    LOL-Leave with one hundred thousand .... would be nice though!!

    However my question still stands - in GE IIRC it is by alphabetical order??
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    MP_SE said:

    Does anyone know why the odds for Leave are shortening? Is there a poll due?

    Probably because the odds were wrong in the first place.
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    MikeL said:

    Anything could happen but Remain has to be firm favourite.

    Remember what was said a few weeks ago - Leave needs to be 5% to 7% ahead to be confident of victory - to allow for polling station swingback + Northern Ireland. It's nowhere near that.

    The Opinium survey included Northern Ireland (source), and polling station swingback to status quo doesn't apply. Not when voting Remain means voting for change (continuing high immigration) and the Sun tells people that voting Leave is doing what the queen wants.

    I will vote Remain, but I think Leave is far more likely to win.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,714
    MP_SE said:

    Does anyone know why the odds for Leave are shortening? Is there a poll due?

    ComRes and YouGov out at 10pm
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,027
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Will people stop trotting out SNP 85% Remain and the like. It's 65/35 at the very, very most and I think it'l be lower than that on the day.

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/ James Kelly seems to want "leave" to win judging by his blog...
    Seems very one sided, only talking about the Leave leads.... ;)
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    MP_SE said:

    On a side note, canvassing after eating a huge meal is quite unpleasant.

    For everyone involved? :)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,105

    If Dave is reading this (I understand he might be a bit busy at the moment, so perhaps one of his SPADs could give him a copy later), here are some recommendations for a post-referendum unity reshuffle, assuming a Remain result:

    - Osborne to Foreign Sec
    - Theresa to Chancellor
    - Hammond to Home Office
    - Gove to remain as Justice Sec with a brief to get on with his reforms, and if possible with extra responsibilities
    - Andrea Leadsom to Treasury Sec
    - Jeremy Hunt, Chris Grayling, Micahel Fallon, Stephen Crabb, Patrick McLoughlin, Priti Patel, Whittingdale to remain in place

    - Demotion for Sajid Javid and Nicky Morgan on grounds of general uselessness. Maybe Amber Rudd to BIS in order to kick some a**. Perhaps Greg Hands to Education?

    - Maybe release Theresa Villiers from her exile to NI?

    - Boris to the least damaging post Cammo can think of.

    Surely in the event of a Remain win, in order to assure Leavers we'll be as skeptic as possible within the EU, a Leaver needs to be Foreign Secretary?

    I'm not convinced Osborne will retain a Cabinet place - I think he went so hard last week so that he could be the sacrifice.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited June 2016

    Pulpstar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm struggling to imagine 100,000 people trotting out in Sunderland to vote for the EU mind.

    Sunderland could see a higher turnout than usual because the parliamentary seats are as boring as possible in terms of outcome.
    People in seats like Sunderland don't often have a chance for their vote to count for anything. "Leave" has a far bigger emotional pull than "Remain" too I reckon.
    This works for safe Tory seats too....
    I think this is where it will be interesting to see if the polling is correct or it falls down. A big group of people who at a GE have zero motivation to vote all of a sudden are in a position where every vote counts and if the polling is correct it really does matter.
    Unless the majority is actually 1 it will be a record number of people voting whose vote does not matter/count
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,582
    edited June 2016

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it

    Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
    70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.

    85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain
    70% Labour
    40% Conservative
    1% UKIP

    = Remain 53-53%
    The unknown is turnout. If it's higher than a general election, which way will the new voters break?
    Exactly, differential turnout is highly likely to favour Leave.
    What's unusual about this referendum is that older people and professionals (more highly educated) are voting in different directions. Usually it is the same way (GE Conservative; Indyref No) So it's a question of which of the two keenest voting categories turn out more.

    I suspect they will more or less cancel each other out. Back to MOE...
    Also relative numbers, Mr. B2. At least I would have thought so. How many older people are there compare to the AB1s?

    Furthermore, what percentage of each group will vote against the grain as it were? How many of those richer in years, who supposedly are for leave, will vote for remain? Visa versa for the AB1s.

    I will say that this sort of identity, pigeon-holing sort politics leaves me cold. Whilst some may use it to make themselves seem clever, most of the time it only makes any sense, if at all, after the event. The best example of this was on here before the last general election, we had lots and lots of analysis of how different segments of society were going to break and people totaling up numbers and extravagant calculations explaining how the results of the polls were explainable. Culminating in one prominent poster on this site stating categorically it was impossible, not unlikely but downright impossible, for the Conservatives to get an overall majority because unless they were 10 point something ahead in the polls.

    So all this pigeon-holing may be an indicator but I really can't get too excited about it.
    Some fair points - but the key 'mistake' in 2015 GE was that people didn't recognise how vulnerable the LibDems were in their Tory marginals under FPTP, once they lost tactical support from normally Labour voters. Without those 'unexpected' gains from the LibDems people were correct in assuming that the Tories could not get a majority.

    In this referendum every vote counts, and therefore the sort of analysis you decry is probably a lot more useful...
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Mr. Tyndall, I'm sure Mr. Eagles is celebrating the downfall of European terrorists in the best Christmas film ever made.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,714

    R U Ok Hun? @Cristiano

    Suggesting he might sign for Rangers, the ultimate insult.
    I thought their nickname now was Sevco
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,333
    Wonder if Dave has got through all those cheap fags he picked up on that whistle stop tour of the rock yet?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Austria have missed a penalty against Iceland.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 19,167

    @Richard_Nabavi Boris Johnson for Ambassador to Ankara?

    You shuld take into account their strengths and inclinations, thus:
    Boris for Foreign Secretary or British Ambassador to the USA
    Gove for Deputy PM or Secretary of State for Screaming At Migrants
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Thank goodness for the footie to reunite the nation afterwards...

    Against the big teams and pro the underdog

    Supporting the home teams until their inevitable early exits (perhaps excl Wales)

    Calling for Roy to be fired and replaced by Mark Reckless
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,333
    Ronaldo in permanent strop mode.
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    El_DaveEl_Dave Posts: 145
    PlatoSaid said:

    This Junker business has managed to confuse things in a most helpful way for Leave.

    I've heard reports saying it's all Cameron is getting whether we're in or out. Others saying to only applies if we Leave.

    Whatever the case - it's muddied the waters :wink:

    What Junker business?

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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,071

    I've already changed the ringtone on my phone to Ode to Joy.

    That's become the traditional warm up music for a Trump rally.
    Seriously? He doesn't just want to save the south and the rust belt but the whole of western civilisation?
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,851

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kle4 said:

    Kay Burley of Sky saying to Boris latest poll says 70% of labour voters are remain and he seemed taken aback. Where is this poll as I haven't seen it

    Would that be enough for Remain? If high turnout in the shires, which will be heavily for Leave, happens, Labour areas need to both turnout high and have overwhelming Remain stakes.
    70% Labour for Remain would mean Remain win IMHO.

    85% LD/SNP/Green for Remain
    70% Labour
    40% Conservative
    1% UKIP

    = Remain 53-53%
    The unknown is turnout. If it's higher than a general election, which way will the new voters break?
    Exactly, differential turnout is highly likely to favour Leave.
    What's unusual about this referendum is that older people and professionals (more highly educated) are voting in different directions. Usually it is the same way (GE Conservative; Indyref No) So it's a question of which of the two keenest voting categories turn out more.

    I suspect they will more or less cancel each other out. Back to MOE...
    Also relative numbers, Mr. B2. At least I would have thought so. How many older people are there compare to the AB1s?

    Furthermore, what percentage of each group will vote against the grain as it were? How many of those richer in years, who supposedly are for leave, will vote for remain? Visa versa for the AB1s.

    I will say that this sort of identity, pigeon-holing sort politics leaves me cold. Whilst some may use it to make themselves seem clever, most of the time it only makes any sense, if at all, after the event. The best example of this was on here before the last general election, we had lots and lots of analysis of how different segments of society were going to break and people totaling up numbers and extravagant calculations explaining how the results of the polls were explainable. Culminating in one prominent poster on this site stating categorically it was impossible, not unlikely but downright impossible, for the Conservatives to get an overall majority because unless they were 10 point something ahead in the polls.

    So all this pigeon-holing may be an indicator but I really can't get too excited about it.
    Fair enough, but the whole point of this site is to predict outcomes and to do that you have to generalise. That older people tend to vote Leave and better educated people tend to vote Remain is a measurable fact. It doesn't mean that they all do and it certainly isn't a value judgment. You can then drill down and say if you are a UKIP voter you will with 90% probability vote Leave. It doesn't matter how old or well educated you are in that case.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,030
    Mr. T, just like the election.
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    YouGov write:

    Dear Tissue,

    You have been selected to take part in an ‘on the day’ election poll after you’ve voted tomorrow.

    We will send out a link for you to take the survey once you have voted or have decided you probably won’t vote.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,105
    edited June 2016

    MikeL said:

    Britain Elects:
    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 34% (-1)
    LAB: 30% (-2)
    UKIP: 19% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (+2)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    (via Opinium / 20 - 22 Jun)

    How the feck are the tories remaining ahead?

    Oh wait, this is Corbyn leading.
    And the LDs still on next to nothing!
    RoyalBlue said:

    MikeL said:

    Britain Elects:
    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 34% (-1)
    LAB: 30% (-2)
    UKIP: 19% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (+2)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    (via Opinium / 20 - 22 Jun)

    Leave wins in those:
    100% UKIP = 19%
    60% Tories = 20%
    40% Labour = 12%
    33% Lib Dems = 2%
    25% Greens = 1%

    54% Leave.

    Does 60% Tories seem low to anyone else? I know the Tory voters will be less leave than the membership, but given the membership seems like 80%, I'd assumed more than 60% for the voters.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048
    Interesting.

    I have just had an email from yougov to tell me they will be polling me tomorrow after I have voted to find out how I voted. Or if I decide not to vote to let them know that. They will send me the link in the morning and I am to fill out the poll after I have voted.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,293

    I've already changed the ringtone on my phone to Ode to Joy.

    That's become the traditional warm up music for a Trump rally.
    Seriously? He doesn't just want to save the south and the rust belt but the whole of western civilisation?
    I think they just play it on the internet broadcasts rather than at the events but, yes, it's a common theme, along with lots of Wagner.
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    MP_SE said:

    Does anyone know why the odds for Leave are shortening? Is there a poll due?

    ComRes and YouGov out at 10pm
    TNS imminent -maybe 6pm according to Forex
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm assuming that Portugal will snatch an equaliser, meaning that I'll be in Hungary for an England v Hungary last 16 match.

    That will be fun.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,048

    YouGov write:

    Dear Tissue,

    You have been selected to take part in an ‘on the day’ election poll after you’ve voted tomorrow.

    We will send out a link for you to take the survey once you have voted or have decided you probably won’t vote.

    Snap.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    I've just done a Daily Yougov, have answered it with 100% honesty.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960

    I'm assuming that Portugal will snatch an equaliser, meaning that I'll be in Hungary for an England v Hungary last 16 match.

    That will be fun.

    We'll probably lose - Hungary are great on the counter-attack.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,071
    kle4 said:

    MikeL said:

    Britain Elects:
    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 34% (-1)
    LAB: 30% (-2)
    UKIP: 19% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (+2)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    (via Opinium / 20 - 22 Jun)

    How the feck are the tories remaining ahead?

    Oh wait, this is Corbyn leading.
    And the LDs still on next to nothing!
    RoyalBlue said:

    MikeL said:

    Britain Elects:
    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 34% (-1)
    LAB: 30% (-2)
    UKIP: 19% (-)
    LDEM: 6% (+2)
    GRN: 4% (-)
    (via Opinium / 20 - 22 Jun)

    Leave wins in those:
    100% UKIP = 19%
    60% Tories = 20%
    40% Labour = 12%
    33% Lib Dems = 2%
    25% Greens = 1%

    54% Leave.

    Does 60% Tories seem low to anyone else? I know the Tory voters will be less leave than the membership, but given the membership seems like 80%, I'd assumed more than 60% for the voters.
    Tory membership is about 1% of their voters. No reason to expect them to be in close alignment.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,714

    YouGov write:

    Dear Tissue,

    You have been selected to take part in an ‘on the day’ election poll after you’ve voted tomorrow.

    We will send out a link for you to take the survey once you have voted or have decided you probably won’t vote.

    Snap.
    I got the Populus one.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,034
    Yougov oversampling the politically interested.

    YouGov write:

    Dear Tissue,

    You have been selected to take part in an ‘on the day’ election poll after you’ve voted tomorrow.

    We will send out a link for you to take the survey once you have voted or have decided you probably won’t vote.

    Snap.

    YouGov write:

    Dear Tissue,

    You have been selected to take part in an ‘on the day’ election poll after you’ve voted tomorrow.

    We will send out a link for you to take the survey once you have voted or have decided you probably won’t vote.

    Pulpstar said:

    I've just done a Daily Yougov, have answered it with 100% honesty.

  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,395
    edited June 2016

    R U Ok Hun? @Cristiano

    Suggesting he might sign for Rangers, the ultimate insult.
    I thought their nickname now was Sevco
    Huns is old school, The Sevs, Newco & Zombies are more recent. Some of them go ballistic if you dare to put the definite article 'The' in front of 'Rangers'.
    Safe to say a lot of them are on a hair trigger whatever you say them.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960

    Interesting.

    I have just had an email from yougov to tell me they will be polling me tomorrow after I have voted to find out how I voted. Or if I decide not to vote to let them know that. They will send me the link in the morning and I am to fill out the poll after I have voted.

    Bleeding 'eck - you and Tissue.

    They're either polling a HUGE number of people or its a mighty coincidence.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    OK if comres show a 2% lead for leave on 10/10 (excluding dont knows)
    turnout I'm gonna put a grand on it.







    Maybe.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,027

    I'm assuming that Portugal will snatch an equaliser, meaning that I'll be in Hungary for an England v Hungary last 16 match.

    That will be fun.

    There you go ;)
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    kle4 said:

    Does 60% Tories seem low to anyone else? I know the Tory voters will be less leave than the membership, but given the membership seems like 80%, I'd assumed more than 60% for the voters.

    I don't think the membership is anything like 80% Remain. Certainly in our (rural shire) area it seems to be quite evenly balanced. I'd expect that to be the case generally, especially once you factor in the London areas.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Farron, Ashdown, Brown, Harman & Cameron descend on Birmingham, together!

    WTF did Brum do to deserve that?
This discussion has been closed.