This is a single constituency election in a highly divided country. Anecdotes are going to be of minimal use.
For pretty much everyone, "everyone I know" is going to be voting one way. The problem is to work out how many there are of each type of "everyone I know".
London Highways companies have just put in place emergency flood clearance measures for London area overnight into tomorrow due to weather warning from Met Office.
Please can tomorrow be absolutely pissing down all day in London. Pretty please!
No, the storms will track along the south coast from the Isle of Wight, head across north Kent to the Essex coast just skimming the eastern Boroughs of London, then head north towards Lincolnshire...
Thunderstorms in Kent, Essex, East London, Lincolnshire - aren't they areas of relative UKIP strength? God's trying to tell you guys something!
Interesting - the stories on here all seem to be swinging leave (I know the balance on here is skewed more toward leave PBers, but still...), paints a worrying picture for remain.
On the other hand, the GE polls did awfully regarding seat projections, but were within near enough within MOE for tory and labour votes, and near enough spot on for the rest. In a referendum, there's no seats to worry about and vote share is all that matters, so they may be more reliable in this vote.
The Yessers were more numerous and vocal during IndyRef.
Everything that happened in history was good news for Yes.
The polls were neck and neck.
Yes lost by 10 points
Not a prediction, but anecdata are notoriously unreliable
"An outsider settling in Cornwall will still be a foreigner even after 40 years in the county. This is unwelcoming by many standards, especially those of the North."
Sounds a bit like Boston. Unfortunate in some ways for both the new and the old.
In the US, I would expect Mainers are closest to the Cornish mindset.
PS Although, if you want to hear the Cornish accent alive and well in the US, go to Tangier Island in the Chesapeake - there are only about 12 family names, all Cornish. And, of course, for a Cornish pasty you have to go to the Upper Peninsula in Michigan, for some completely unknown reason.
Just out of interest, how accurate did the anecdata posted on this forum prove to be for GE 2015?
Not very well, in my memory. Mr. Smithson, OGH, insisted that it was impossible (not just unlikely but impossible) for the Conservatives to win an overall majority unless they were ten point something ahead in the polls. The general range of opinion resembled the perceived wisdom (NOM). As to actual anecdotes I seem to recall we had many, mostly favouring the poster's perceived views.
The star of the evening was Ave_it, who we don't see to much of these days. Once the results started to come in he called it correct down to one seat. I have always thought that Ave_it got far too little credit for that.
I think the over reliance on polling and ignoring anecdata was very pronounced at GE2015. Especially so with conventional wisdom on here re LDs being immune. That was most misleading.
Watching what politicians are doing, rather than saying proved very helpful. Last ditch meetings with Russell Brand, PM going to what looked like odd locations et al.
Cameron appearing before Number 10 to plead for votes yesterday...Major and Blair putting the frighteners on NI. These look weird for a campaign that's winning.
Basically it was the YouGov daily polling of a sample unrepresentative of the UK electorate and their inability to correct it that caused most of the problems.
The problem with the LibDems is that they ended up in a UKIP sort of position - lots of votes but insufficient concentration to win/ retain seats. (Illegal) Tory targeting brought them down. You may remember Mr Cameron promising Tory MPs they wouldn't lose their seats.
We had pretty well nailed on the fact that Labour were going to collapse in Scotland - but did not pick up the fact that a lot of Labour support (which DID go up remember) was in areas that were already solid labour)
Anecdotes are suggesting that the traditional Labour voters (the ones who don't fill in polling questionnaires and who don't have landlines and are very bigoted (TIC)) are still being missed, however. In the GE they don't bother voting. . .
As you say - the non-verbal signals are heavily pro-Leave.
Depends how many registered compared to the young. Comres' final poll had the Tories on 35% so not far off, their final referendum poll is tonight
London Highways companies have just put in place emergency flood clearance measures for London area overnight into tomorrow due to weather warning from Met Office.
Please can tomorrow be absolutely pissing down all day in London. Pretty please!
No, the storms will track along the south coast from the Isle of Wight, head across north Kent to the Essex coast just skimming the eastern Boroughs of London, then head north towards Lincolnshire...
Thunderstorms in Kent, Essex, East London, Lincolnshire - aren't they areas of relative UKIP strength? God's trying to tell you guys something!
It rained heavily on the night before Waterloo...
And before D-Day....
Well, He was telling the French and Germans something then too.
It's not been a terribly edifying campaign, on either side. But was there any other route to 50% for Brexit? Serious question. And was there any other way of Remain stopping them other than offering their own distortions?
Whether the ends will have justified the means is of course one of the oldest questions in politics.
TBH I'm not convinced that the distortions and exaggerated claims are any different to any other contest. Every GE sees Labour spouting nonsense about the Tories wanting to destroy the NHS, and the Tories using creative maths to come up with nice round figures for Labour tax bombshells.
Once the dust has settled, politicians on opposite sides of the referendum will resume business as usual. Contrary to popular belief, I don't think the rancour of the campaign will last very long. Politicians are extremely good at switching seamlessly from slagging each other off to working together as esteemed colleagues.
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
More likely looking for someone who will win in 2020 and save their job. Not many options on the Leave side....
In the event of a Leave vote, I think Chairman of the Conservative Party would be a good post for Mr Hannan, having been made redundant from his current job.
If Leave win, like most Remain minded Tories I'll respect that and do my best to make it work. That might change should IDS be given any more responsibility than minding the commons creche
Chairman of the party would be a good place for Hannan to be if we voted Remain, to be honest. In some alternate universes, he's cabinet material, although that might now be a stretch.
Mr. Rabbit, I like Hannan and consider him to be a good and persuasive speaker as well as a genuinely nice bloke. However, I am not sure he has the experience or the instincts to be effective at Westminster , even in a Party Chairman role (especially if there is a leave result tomorrow).
Interesting - the stories on here all seem to be swinging leave (I know the balance on here is skewed more toward leave PBers, but still...), paints a worrying picture for remain.
On the other hand, the GE polls did awfully regarding seat projections, but were within near enough within MOE for tory and labour votes, and near enough spot on for the rest. In a referendum, there's no seats to worry about and vote share is all that matters, so they may be more reliable in this vote.
The Yessers were more numerous and vocal during IndyRef.
Everything that happened in history was good news for Yes.
The polls were neck and neck.
Yes lost by 10 points
Not a prediction, but anecdata are notoriously unreliable
Yes won the twitter and window poster wars, but lost in the ballotbox.
London Highways companies have just put in place emergency flood clearance measures for London area overnight into tomorrow due to weather warning from Met Office.
Please can tomorrow be absolutely pissing down all day in London. Pretty please!
No, the storms will track along the south coast from the Isle of Wight, head across north Kent to the Essex coast just skimming the eastern Boroughs of London, then head north towards Lincolnshire...
Thunderstorms in Kent, Essex, East London, Lincolnshire - aren't they areas of relative UKIP strength? God's trying to tell you guys something!
Once the dust has settled, politicians on opposite sides of the referendum will resume business as usual. Contrary to popular belief, I don't think the rancour of the campaign will last very long. Politicians are extremely good at switching seamlessly from slagging each other off to working together as esteemed colleagues.
The pols will be fine, but the lesson from Scotland is the voters who have been robbed will be less easy to placate
Interesting - the stories on here all seem to be swinging leave (I know the balance on here is skewed more toward leave PBers, but still...), paints a worrying picture for remain.
On the other hand, the GE polls did awfully regarding seat projections, but were within near enough within MOE for tory and labour votes, and near enough spot on for the rest. In a referendum, there's no seats to worry about and vote share is all that matters, so they may be more reliable in this vote.
The Yessers were more numerous and vocal during IndyRef.
Everything that happened in history was good news for Yes.
The polls were neck and neck.
Yes lost by 10 points
Not a prediction, but anecdata are notoriously unreliable
Yes only had two leads in the run up to the vote. This is a lot closer
Interesting - the stories on here all seem to be swinging leave (I know the balance on here is skewed more toward leave PBers, but still...), paints a worrying picture for remain.
On the other hand, the GE polls did awfully regarding seat projections, but were within near enough within MOE for tory and labour votes, and near enough spot on for the rest. In a referendum, there's no seats to worry about and vote share is all that matters, so they may be more reliable in this vote.
The Yessers were more numerous and vocal during IndyRef.
Everything that happened in history was good news for Yes.
The polls were neck and neck.
Yes lost by 10 points
Not a prediction, but anecdata are notoriously unreliable
Only one poll had Yes in the lead, IIRC. It was assumed by many that the anecdotal stuff would see them over the line, and that was wrong.
Here, it really is much closer (if the polls are right), but many have shown Leave leads. So anecdotal might be just as unreliable, but it's not quite the same situation, as Leave don't need their anecdotal stuff to be 100% right, if the polls are right.
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
More likely looking for someone who will win in 2020 and save their job. Not many options on the Leave side....
In the event of a Leave vote, I think Chairman of the Conservative Party would be a good post for Mr Hannan, having been made redundant from his current job.
If Leave win, like most Remain minded Tories I'll respect that and do my best to make it work. That might change should IDS be given any more responsibility than minding the commons creche
Chairman of the party would be a good place for Hannan to be if we voted Remain, to be honest. In some alternate universes, he's cabinet material, although that might now be a stretch.
Mr. Rabbit, I like Hannan and consider him to be a good and persuasive speaker as well as a genuinely nice bloke. However, I am not sure he has the experience or the instincts to be effective at Westminster , even in a Party Chairman role (especially if there is a leave result tomorrow).
Mr Llama, what would you do with a very good but happily unemployed MEP?
Just out of interest, how accurate did the anecdata posted on this forum prove to be for GE 2015?
Not very well, in my memory. Mr. Smithson, OGH, insisted that it was impossible (not just unlikely but impossible) for the Conservatives to win an overall majority unless they were ten point something ahead in the polls. The general range of opinion resembled the perceived wisdom (NOM). As to actual anecdotes I seem to recall we had many, mostly favouring the poster's perceived views.
The star of the evening was Ave_it, who we don't see to much of these days. Once the results started to come in he called it correct down to one seat. I have always thought that Ave_it got far too little credit for that.
I think the over reliance on polling and ignoring anecdata was very pronounced at GE2015. Especially so with conventional wisdom on here re LDs being immune. That was most misleading.
Watching what politicians are doing, rather than saying proved very helpful. Last ditch meetings with Russell Brand, PM going to what looked like odd locations et al.
Cameron appearing before Number 10 to plead for votes yesterday...Major and Blair putting the frighteners on NI. These look weird for a campaign that's winning.
Basically it was the YouGov daily polling of a sample unrepresentative of the UK electorate and their inability to correct it that caused most of the problems.
The problem with the LibDems is that they ended up in a UKIP sort of position - lots of votes but insufficient concentration to win/ retain seats. (Illegal) Tory targeting brought them down. You may remember Mr Cameron promising Tory MPs they wouldn't lose their seats.
We had pretty well nailed on the fact that Labour were going to collapse in Scotland - but did not pick up the fact that a lot of Labour support (which DID go up remember) was in areas that were already solid labour)
Anecdotes are suggesting that the traditional Labour voters (the ones who don't fill in polling questionnaires and who don't have landlines and are very bigoted (TIC)) are still being missed, however. In the GE they don't bother voting. . .
As you say - the non-verbal signals are heavily pro-Leave.
It's not been a terribly edifying campaign, on either side. But was there any other route to 50% for Brexit? Serious question. And was there any other way of Remain stopping them other than offering their own distortions?
Whether the ends will have justified the means is of course one of the oldest questions in politics.
I think Leave have done very well. They have significant weaknesses that they have managed not to expose too much: The lack of any coherent plan or strategy; That they mainly reflect a faction within the Conservative Party that doesn't normally appeal to those elsewhere on the political spectrum; They are up against a government that controls the agenda.
They have done all of this by lying through their teeth on costs, Turkey and especially immigration, but have mostly got away with it.
@Tissue_Price There may well not have been any other route for Leave to target 50%. I can still regard it as disgusting.
It was precisely because I could see that Leave was heading down that route that I headed for Remain. A country that opts to vote Leave on such terms will do worse than a country that opts to vote Remain.
Those who regard some abstract idea of theoretical sovereignty as more important than truth, logical weighing of evidence and not stirring up xenophobia can choose to vote according to their own priorities.
Here, it really is much closer (if the polls are right), but many have shown Leave leads. So anecdotal might be just as unreliable, but it's not quite the same situation, as Leave don't need their anecdotal stuff to be 100% right, if the polls are right.
ICM had a 14 point discrepancy in a single poll
I am not convinced the polls this time are any more accurate than they were last time
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
More likely looking for someone who will win in 2020 and save their job. Not many options on the Leave side....
In the event of a Leave vote, I think Chairman of the Conservative Party would be a good post for Mr Hannan, having been made redundant from his current job.
If Leave win, like most Remain minded Tories I'll respect that and do my best to make it work. That might change should IDS be given any more responsibility than minding the commons creche
Chairman of the party would be a good place for Hannan to be if we voted Remain, to be honest. In some alternate universes, he's cabinet material, although that might now be a stretch.
Mr. Rabbit, I like Hannan and consider him to be a good and persuasive speaker as well as a genuinely nice bloke. However, I am not sure he has the experience or the instincts to be effective at Westminster , even in a Party Chairman role (especially if there is a leave result tomorrow).
He's an ideas man, not a social worker. I can't imagine him enjoying constituency stuff.
Just out of interest, how accurate did the anecdata posted on this forum prove to be for GE 2015?
Not very well, in my memory. Mr. Smithson, OGH, insisted that it was impossible (not just unlikely but impossible) for the Conservatives to win an overall majority unless they were ten point something ahead in the polls. The general range of opinion resembled the perceived wisdom (NOM). As to actual anecdotes I seem to recall we had many, mostly favouring the poster's perceived views.
The star of the evening was Ave_it, who we don't see to much of these days. Once the results started to come in he called it correct down to one seat. I have always thought that Ave_it got far too little credit for that.
I think the over reliance on polling and ignoring anecdata was very pronounced at GE2015. Especially so with conventional wisdom on here re LDs being immune. That was most misleading.
Watching what politicians are doing, rather than saying proved very helpful. Last ditch meetings with Russell Brand, PM going to what looked like odd locations et al.
Cameron appearing before Number 10 to plead for votes yesterday...Major and Blair putting the frighteners on NI. These look weird for a campaign that's winning.
Basically it was the YouGov daily polling of a sample unrepresentative of the UK electorate and their inability to correct it that caused most of the problems.
The problem with the LibDems is that they ended up in a UKIP sort of position - lots of votes but insufficient concentration to win/ retain seats. (Illegal) Tory targeting brought them down. You may remember Mr Cameron promising Tory MPs they wouldn't lose their seats.
We had pretty well nailed on the fact that Labour were going to collapse in Scotland - but did not pick up the fact that a lot of Labour support (which DID go up remember) was in areas that were already solid labour)
Anecdotes are suggesting that the traditional Labour voters (the ones who don't fill in polling questionnaires and who don't have landlines and are very bigoted (TIC)) are still being missed, however. In the GE they don't bother voting. . .
As you say - the non-verbal signals are heavily pro-Leave.
Who in Britain doesn't have landlines?
Lots of people, predominantly the young and tenants
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
More likely looking for someone who will win in 2020 and save their job. Not many options on the Leave side....
In the event of a Leave vote, I think Chairman of the Conservative Party would be a good post for Mr Hannan, having been made redundant from his current job.
If Leave win, like most Remain minded Tories I'll respect that and do my best to make it work. That might change should IDS be given any more responsibility than minding the commons creche
Chairman of the party would be a good place for Hannan to be if we voted Remain, to be honest. In some alternate universes, he's cabinet material, although that might now be a stretch.
Mr. Rabbit, I like Hannan and consider him to be a good and persuasive speaker as well as a genuinely nice bloke. However, I am not sure he has the experience or the instincts to be effective at Westminster , even in a Party Chairman role (especially if there is a leave result tomorrow).
Mr Llama, what would you do with a very good but happily unemployed MEP?
Well I think I would get him into Parliament and see how he gets on. If I had the chance I give him a ministerial post and, if he coped with that well, keep promoting him until I found his level.
That said I am sure Hannan has his own career/life goals worked out. He has after all been asking us to make him redundant so I am sure he has thought of what he would do if we did.
compouter2 ...... a few thousand posts pre GE, never posted again since that night...
I don't understand the reticence - I was predicting a Lab majority in January 2015, which was embarrassing in hindsight. Obviously there was quite a bit of Tory triumphalism around inthe immediate aftermath, but that's hilarious to consider now seeing them rip themselves to pieces but still be convinced, largely, that they cannot lose in 2020.
Last few years have been interesting times. Scotland SNP/Labour. Corbyn from zero to leader of the opposition. Cameron from Tory hero winning against the odds to ????.
I would have thought the obvious song for Friday would be courtesy of ABBA:
"I don't wanna talk About things we've gone through Though it's hurting me Now it's history I've played all my cards And that's what you've done too Nothing more to say No more ace to play
The winner takes it all The loser's standing small Beside the victory That's her destiny"
"Good morning it’s eight o'clock on Thursday 6 October. You’re listening to the Today programme on BBC Radio 4 with me John Humphrys.
The waiting’s over. In just a few moments we’ll be speaking to Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Fresh from his leadership election victory at Conservative Party conference yesterday. But first the news headlines.
***
Trillions were wiped from the value of British pension funds for a second successive day yesterday as the Index of Leading Shares fell to levels not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008.
Chancellor Michael Gove will outline cuts to front-line services in an emergency budget scheduled for next week as the government struggles to come to terms with what the IFS warns may be a "deep and long lasting recession".
England manager Alan Pardew has warned players and fans "to keep their feet on the ground" after England’s World Cup qualification campaign began with a 1 - 0 victory over Malta at Wembley.'
I would have thought the obvious song for Friday would be courtesy of ABBA:
"I don't wanna talk About things we've gone through Though it's hurting me Now it's history I've played all my cards And that's what you've done too Nothing more to say No more ace to play
The winner takes it all The loser's standing small Beside the victory That's her destiny"
Can I suggest a minor alteration to this masterpiece
The winner takes it all The loser gets fuck all
Friday is only about one thing, winning. However small.
Here, it really is much closer (if the polls are right), but many have shown Leave leads. So anecdotal might be just as unreliable, but it's not quite the same situation, as Leave don't need their anecdotal stuff to be 100% right, if the polls are right.
ICM had a 14 point discrepancy in a single poll
I am not convinced the polls this time are any more accurate than they were last time
That may be so - so what do you base a judgement on? Anecdotal evidence is strongly for Leave, but that alone won't win it if there is no genuine support among waverers.
Demographics would suggest it is for Leave too, given the reliance on the young, but is that data, which is polled, any better? It also says Leave will rely on WWC, who also don't vote as much.
State of the parties? Tories are split but members will be heavily for leave, voters leave but maybe not as much. Labour will be for remain, but by how much?
Here, it really is much closer (if the polls are right), but many have shown Leave leads. So anecdotal might be just as unreliable, but it's not quite the same situation, as Leave don't need their anecdotal stuff to be 100% right, if the polls are right.
ICM had a 14 point discrepancy in a single poll
I am not convinced the polls this time are any more accurate than they were last time
That may be so - so what do you base a judgement on? Anecdotal evidence is strongly for Leave, but that alone won't win it if there is no genuine support among waverers.
Demographics would suggest it is for Leave too, given the reliance on the young, but is that data, which is polled, any better? It also says Leave will rely on WWC, who also don't vote as much.
State of the parties? Tories are split but members will be heavily for leave, voters leave but maybe not as much. Labour will be for remain, but by how much?
Labour for remain?????? Are you sure about that....
@Tissue_Price There may well not have been any other route for Leave to target 50%. I can still regard it as disgusting.
It was precisely because I could see that Leave was heading down that route that I headed for Remain. A country that opts to vote Leave on such terms will do worse than a country that opts to vote Remain.
Those who regard some abstract idea of theoretical sovereignty as more important than truth, logical weighing of evidence and not stirring up xenophobia can choose to vote according to their own priorities.
compouter2 ...... a few thousand posts pre GE, never posted again since that night...
I wonder how many posters will disappear on Friday?
Poor IoS is still AWOL. Last we heard of him, he was being dropped off for the last minute push of Labour's massive ground offensive and think they forgot to pick him up afterwards....I blame a failure in the buddy system, must be hard to keep track of everybody when you have so many people out campaigning for you ;-)
"Good morning it’s eight o'clock on Thursday 6 October. You’re listening to the Today programme on BBC Radio 4 with me John Humphrys.
The waiting’s over. In just a few moments we’ll be speaking to Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Fresh from his leadership election victory at Conservative Party conference yesterday. But first the news headlines.
***
Trillions were wiped from the value of British pension funds for a second successive day yesterday as the Index of Leading Shares fell to levels not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008.
Chancellor Michael Gove will outline cuts to front-line services in an emergency budget scheduled for next week as the government struggles to come to terms with what the IFS warns may be a "deep and long lasting recession".
England manager Alan Pardew has warned players and fans "to keep their feet on the ground" after England’s World Cup qualification campaign began with a 1 - 0 victory over Malta at Wembley.'
@Richard Nabavi Just to fill you in with modern culture, Morrissey is someone who professes to sing and once headed up a band called the Smiths, unlike John Barnes who used to kick a football around for a living.
I would have thought the obvious song for Friday would be courtesy of ABBA:
"I don't wanna talk About things we've gone through Though it's hurting me Now it's history I've played all my cards And that's what you've done too Nothing more to say No more ace to play
The winner takes it all The loser's standing small Beside the victory That's her destiny"
''Those who regard some abstract idea of theoretical sovereignty as more important than truth, logical weighing of evidence and not stirring up xenophobia can choose to vote according to their own priorities. ''
Doubtless there were bewigged Meeks saying exactly this to incredulous founding fathers in 1776.
One of my Irish sister-in-laws is holidaying in Cornwall and is complaining how rude, stand-offish and unwelcoming the locals. She's comparing it with Liverpool and is amazed at the difference. I'm not a great Scouser fan, despite having lived here for a few years. They do have their faults, but stand-offish and unwelcoming, they most definitely are not.
A few years ago, I was on the last train from Lime Street to Manchester and I got talking to some Mancs. Drink had been taken and they noticed my Boston United football shirt. The usual good-natured banter ensued, but suddenly a group of Scousers descended on us to defend me.
I had to restrain them from marmalising the Mancs.
Now it could be courteous neighbourliness, or it could be they don't like Mancs much. I wish Burnham good luck with his Mayoral bid, but I admit to being surprised.
Not banned. Apparently.
Yes the Cornish are famously stand-offish and terse when they want to be. However they are generally nice to tourists (who spend money); it's usually the blow-ins, the white settlers, the people from London with second homes, who get the chilly treatment.
On the other hand Cornwall is about the only place where someone can happily call a total stranger "my lover", in public. And this they do.
Interesting snippet at the end of that article: "Polling firms Populus and ICM were also invited to answer the three questions. They declined because they are working with the campaign groups. "
Horrible ratings for Dave among Tory voters. The rating among members will be even worse.
Unless Remain win BIG, I'm expecting Cameron and Osborne to be kicked out ASAP.
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
More likely looking for someone who will win in 2020 and save their job. Not many options on the Leave side....
In the event of a Leave vote, I think Chairman of the Conservative Party would be a good post for Mr Hannan, having been made redundant from his current job.
If Leave win, like most Remain minded Tories I'll respect that and do my best to make it work. That might change should IDS be given any more responsibility than minding the commons creche
Chairman of the party would be a good place for Hannan to be if we voted Remain, to be honest. In some alternate universes, he's cabinet material, although that might now be a stretch.
Mr. Rabbit, I like Hannan and consider him to be a good and persuasive speaker as well as a genuinely nice bloke. However, I am not sure he has the experience or the instincts to be effective at Westminster , even in a Party Chairman role (especially if there is a leave result tomorrow).
Mr Llama, what would you do with a very good but happily unemployed MEP?
Well I think I would get him into Parliament and see how he gets on. If I had the chance I give him a ministerial post and, if he coped with that well, keep promoting him until I found his level.
That said I am sure Hannan has his own career/life goals worked out. He has after all been asking us to make him redundant so I am sure he has thought of what he would do if we did.
LOL, that's a good point you make there. I'm sure he must have thought through what he'll do with his life if we do make him redundant!! His speech at the Spectator debate will surely be in line for one of the "Speech of the year" awards they give out at Christmas.
@Tissue_Price There may well not have been any other route for Leave to target 50%. I can still regard it as disgusting.
It was precisely because I could see that Leave was heading down that route that I headed for Remain. A country that opts to vote Leave on such terms will do worse than a country that opts to vote Remain.
Those who regard some abstract idea of theoretical sovereignty as more important than truth, logical weighing of evidence and not stirring up xenophobia can choose to vote according to their own priorities.
I shall wear your contempt lightly. If it is to be Brexit I think we can be relatively confident that it will be a more liberal Brexit than the campaign.
Which may cause its own problems, but will be much better at drawing the country together again than a narrow Remain win and more of the same.
@Tissue_Price I do not share your relative confidence. If the public is to be given a bait-and-switch, offered closed borders but given freedom of movement, the anger is going to be volcanic.
@Richard Nabavi Just to fill you in with modern culture, Morrissey is someone who professes to sing and once headed up a band called the Smiths, unlike John Barnes who used to kick a football around for a living.
Thanks. I'd heard of Morrissey although not the Smiths. I take it that I needn't trouble myself to listen to his music, let alone his political views?
@Tissue_Price There may well not have been any other route for Leave to target 50%. I can still regard it as disgusting.
It was precisely because I could see that Leave was heading down that route that I headed for Remain. A country that opts to vote Leave on such terms will do worse than a country that opts to vote Remain.
Those who regard some abstract idea of theoretical sovereignty as more important than truth, logical weighing of evidence and not stirring up xenophobia can choose to vote according to their own priorities.
Alistair, to paraphrase your post, you basically think the voters are being irrational.
Leave voters are not being irrational. They just have different priorities to you.
One issue with the remain campaign is they have talked about future GDP projections, but these don't matter to people who are currently struggling to get by now. Many leave voters have rationally concluded that the EU only works for the rich and that continued high immigration will drive down their standard of living.
As for pensioners, many voted for the EU in the 70s on the premise it was just a common market. Why would you rationally vote for something again when you have been lied to?
As for me, I am currently renting and have rationally concluded that unless we control immigration, house prices in the SE will continue to climb to even more unaffordable levels.
Interesting snippet at the end of that article: "Polling firms Populus and ICM were also invited to answer the three questions. They declined because they are working with the campaign groups. "
Yes I saw that, it's interesting an worth bearing in mind in the post mortem.
Lots of people, predominantly the young and tenants
I'm neither. Supposedly we have a landline, but I don't know the number and haven't a clue where the handset is. Haven't used it in the three years I've lived here.
The only district council in the West Midlands likely to vote Remain convincingly is Warwick, which also includes Leamington Spa and Kenilworth. If it isn't an easy win for Remain (at least 55%) they'll probably be in trouble. (I spent most of yesterday there, incidentally). The Press Association gives an estimated declaration time of 2am.
@Tissue_Price I do not share your relative confidence. If the public is to be given a bait-and-switch, offered closed borders but given freedom of movement, the anger is going to be volcanic.
Oh, I agree with that - but then I wouldn't anticipate total freedom of movement in the event of Brexit. But not "closed borders" either.
Interesting snippet at the end of that article: "Polling firms Populus and ICM were also invited to answer the three questions. They declined because they are working with the campaign groups. "
So is THAT why we're not getting any more from ICM? They're doing private polls for one of the campaigns instead. Makes sense, it'll be better paid and not as open to public ridicule if they're wrong.
Lots of people, predominantly the young and tenants
I'm neither. Supposedly we have a landline, but I don't know the number and haven't a clue where the handset is. Haven't used it in the three years I've lived here.
Me too - though I know where it is. I've answered it once. It's a vehicle for broadband, nothing more.
@Tissue_Price There may well not have been any other route for Leave to target 50%. I can still regard it as disgusting.
It was precisely because I could see that Leave was heading down that route that I headed for Remain. A country that opts to vote Leave on such terms will do worse than a country that opts to vote Remain.
Those who regard some abstract idea of theoretical sovereignty as more important than truth, logical weighing of evidence and not stirring up xenophobia can choose to vote according to their own priorities.
I shall wear your contempt lightly. If it is to be Brexit I think we can be relatively confident that it will be a more liberal Brexit than the campaign.
Which may cause its own problems, but will be much better at drawing the country together again than a narrow Remain win and more of the same.
I suspect Remainers will get together with the Richard Tyndall faction of Leavers to go for the EEA as an EU-lite. Immigration control will go by the board, but that was nonsense anyway. And the whole thing will be carefully calibrated to give no-one what they want - the typical solution to a contested policy.
That's what I thought it was about. Was Morrissey being ironic? "But this is relatively tame stuff for the miserable Mancunian, who frequently makes headlines with acts of throwaway controversy."
The only district council in the West Midlands likely to vote Remain convincingly is Warwick, which also includes Leamington Spa and Kenilworth. If it isn't an easy win for Remain (at least 55%) they'll probably be in trouble. (I spent most of yesterday there, incidentally). The Press Association gives an estimated declaration time of 2am.
I would have thought the obvious song for Friday would be courtesy of ABBA:
"I don't wanna talk About things we've gone through Though it's hurting me Now it's history I've played all my cards And that's what you've done too Nothing more to say No more ace to play
The winner takes it all The loser's standing small Beside the victory That's her destiny"
Can I suggest a minor alteration to this masterpiece
The winner takes it all The loser gets fuck all
Friday is only about one thing, winning. However small.
In attitudinal terms can I suggest that that's more German than Swedish. We tend to think like that without the attitude bearing fruit.
The only district council in the West Midlands likely to vote Remain convincingly is Warwick, which also includes Leamington Spa and Kenilworth. If it isn't an easy win for Remain (at least 55%) they'll probably be in trouble. (I spent most of yesterday there, incidentally). The Press Association gives an estimated declaration time of 2am.
The only district council in the West Midlands likely to vote Remain convincingly is Warwick, which also includes Leamington Spa and Kenilworth. If it isn't an easy win for Remain (at least 55%) they'll probably be in trouble. (I spent most of yesterday there, incidentally). The Press Association gives an estimated declaration time of 2am.
That's what I thought it was about. Was Morrissey being ironic? "But this is relatively tame stuff for the miserable Mancunian, who frequently makes headlines with acts of throwaway controversy."
Johny Marr is Going Remain....another reason I guess why the Smiths will not re-form.
Juncker rubbishing Dave's matey 'I'll sort the EU' gambit in the Sun yesterday.
No more negotiation. No more reform.
You need to add in 'if we leave' - he is not talking about a post remain position
If they won't budge when one of their biggest members is on the brink of leaving, they won't budge ever! Although I suspect it is all talk before the vote.
Comments
For pretty much everyone, "everyone I know" is going to be voting one way. The problem is to work out how many there are of each type of "everyone I know".
Everything that happened in history was good news for Yes.
The polls were neck and neck.
Yes lost by 10 points
Not a prediction, but anecdata are notoriously unreliable
PS Although, if you want to hear the Cornish accent alive and well in the US, go to Tangier Island in the Chesapeake - there are only about 12 family names, all Cornish. And, of course, for a Cornish pasty you have to go to the Upper Peninsula in Michigan, for some completely unknown reason.
Once the dust has settled, politicians on opposite sides of the referendum will resume business as usual. Contrary to popular belief, I don't think the rancour of the campaign will last very long. Politicians are extremely good at switching seamlessly from slagging each other off to working together as esteemed colleagues.
Barking & Dagenham 53.9% leave
Redbridge 47.3% leave
Expected margin of "remain" victory
For 50-50 result
Irish, Blood, English Heart Lyrics- a rallying call to you Brexit pop pickers.......
Irish blood, English heart, this I'm made of
There is no-one on earth I'm afraid of
And no regime can buy or sell me
I've been dreaming of a time when
To be English is not to be baneful
To be standing by the flag not feeling
Shameful, racist or partial
Irish blood, English heart, this I'm made of
There is no-one on earth I'm afraid of
And I will die with both my hands untied
I've been dreaming of a time when
The English are sick to death of Labour
And Tories, and spit upon the name of Oliver Cromwell
Here, it really is much closer (if the polls are right), but many have shown Leave leads. So anecdotal might be just as unreliable, but it's not quite the same situation, as Leave don't need their anecdotal stuff to be 100% right, if the polls are right.
They have done all of this by lying through their teeth on costs, Turkey and especially immigration, but have mostly got away with it.
It was precisely because I could see that Leave was heading down that route that I headed for Remain. A country that opts to vote Leave on such terms will do worse than a country that opts to vote Remain.
Those who regard some abstract idea of theoretical sovereignty as more important than truth, logical weighing of evidence and not stirring up xenophobia can choose to vote according to their own priorities.
51.7 Leave 48.3 Remain
Expected.
It's quite close to a UK wide bellwether...
I am not convinced the polls this time are any more accurate than they were last time
I am not convinced the polls this time are any more accurate than they were last time
Hence all those safe labour seats with 50 odd percent turnout.
If the non voters were not registered then the turnout figure would be significantly higher.
That said I am sure Hannan has his own career/life goals worked out. He has after all been asking us to make him redundant so I am sure he has thought of what he would do if we did.
It's Dagenham and Rainham constituency
GE 2015: Lab 41.4; UKIP 29.8: Con 24.4: Others 4.5.
Ref 2016: Leave 60.3 Remain 39.7
"I don't wanna talk
About things we've gone through
Though it's hurting me
Now it's history
I've played all my cards
And that's what you've done too
Nothing more to say
No more ace to play
The winner takes it all
The loser's standing small
Beside the victory
That's her destiny"
"Good morning it’s eight o'clock on Thursday 6 October. You’re listening to the Today programme on BBC Radio 4 with me John Humphrys.
The waiting’s over. In just a few moments we’ll be speaking to Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Fresh from his leadership election victory at Conservative Party conference yesterday. But first the news headlines.
***
Trillions were wiped from the value of British pension funds for a second successive day yesterday as the Index of Leading Shares fell to levels not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008.
Chancellor Michael Gove will outline cuts to front-line services in an emergency budget scheduled for next week as the government struggles to come to terms with what the IFS warns may be a "deep and long lasting recession".
England manager Alan Pardew has warned players and fans "to keep their feet on the ground" after England’s World Cup qualification campaign began with a 1 - 0 victory over Malta at Wembley.'
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/105-days-after-brexit-and-boris-johnson-s-conservative-government-are-in-crises-a7094056.html
No surprise the print edition went out of business.
The winner takes it all
The loser gets fuck all
Friday is only about one thing, winning. However small.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/it-s-our-last-chance-to-remain-would-be-an-act-of-self-harm-rfck9b9pt
""We want Britain to stay in the European Union under any circumstances," Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters in Ankara."
Protect Turkish jobs. Support Open Borders. VOTE REMAIN
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/22/eu-referendum-final-day-live/
Demographics would suggest it is for Leave too, given the reliance on the young, but is that data, which is polled, any better? It also says Leave will rely on WWC, who also don't vote as much.
State of the parties? Tories are split but members will be heavily for leave, voters leave but maybe not as much. Labour will be for remain, but by how much?
However,
I've been dreaming of a time when
To be English is not to be baneful
To be standing by the flag not feeling
Shameful, racist or partial
indicates he's not UKIP friendly.
I think that's my Leave slogan. Most people just know. Even Remainers know.
No surprise the print edition went out of business.
Anyone got the link to the snow article? That was also in the Independent
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/music/news/morrissey-i-nearly-voted-for-ukip-i-like-nigel-farage-a-great-deal-8446651.html
I want Remain to win. I am "balls deep" on Leave on betfair
Just to fill you in with modern culture, Morrissey is someone who professes to sing and once headed up a band called the Smiths, unlike John Barnes who used to kick a football around for a living.
Doubtless there were bewigged Meeks saying exactly this to incredulous founding fathers in 1776.
Happily he and his ilk were ignored.
Interesting snippet at the end of that article: "Polling firms Populus and ICM were also invited to answer the three questions. They declined because they are working with the campaign groups. "
Which may cause its own problems, but will be much better at drawing the country together again than a narrow Remain win and more of the same.
Leave voters are not being irrational. They just have different priorities to you.
One issue with the remain campaign is they have talked about future GDP projections, but these don't matter to people who are currently struggling to get by now. Many leave voters have rationally concluded that the EU only works for the rich and that continued high immigration will drive down their standard of living.
As for pensioners, many voted for the EU in the 70s on the premise it was just a common market. Why would you rationally vote for something again when you have been lied to?
As for me, I am currently renting and have rationally concluded that unless we control immigration, house prices in the SE will continue to climb to even more unaffordable levels.
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/eu_ref_2016_by_name.php
No more negotiation. No more reform.
Was Morrissey being ironic?
"But this is relatively tame stuff for the miserable Mancunian, who frequently makes headlines with acts of throwaway controversy."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v4G6KyKx7pk
He's a massive improvement on Van Rumpoy anyway
He's talking about further negotiations if the UK votes out.
"Out is out, no new renegotiation for the UK" Open Europe