How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
More likely looking for someone who will win in 2020 and save their job. Not many options on the Leave side....
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
I am no fan of Corbyn, but have warmed to him a bit during the EURef campaign. Stepping back from all the EU Ref shit was the right thing to do. His words on Jo Cox really hit the spot.
On tw8tter - German CBI pleads for no tariffs with UK post brexit.
For all the overblown rhetoric around at the moment, if we actually vote to leave it will be quickly replaced by pragmatism on the part of those around the table negotiating.
Merkel's up for election next year, so is Hollande. They won't want to make themselves unpopular at home by stifling their own trade with the UK, most of which is exports to the UK.
A sterling devaluation of 10-30% will do a fair bit of the stifling - another Brexiquence hardly likely to endear us to our continental friends just after we tell them to FO
A Sterling devaluation of that level would hurt Germany more than it would hurt us since we both compete in the same finished manufactured goods export markets. Given how bad our current account deficit is, a devaluation of that kind would probably be quite welcome.
Indeed - it would make it harder for Germany to sell to the UK and make them and other EU leaders much less willing to offer free trade to cut price UK exports. Sadly Britain has had numerous devaluations over many years and yet we still struggle to sell. Why should this be any different?
Rubbish. The last Sterling devaluation oversaw the largest growth in manufacturing since the 80s. As always the facts contradict your stupid claims.
A strong economy doesn't need to devalue its currency to do well. One tries to ignore the personal rudeness but as ever you push one to the limit.
Key words, a strong economy. This economy is built on sand. We have a 7% current account deficit and a 4.5% fiscal deficit. Brexit ir no Brexit, Osborne has built a weak economy based on borrowing from future generations to pay for today's mistakes.
Lol - I agree but I've not heard many Brexiteers acknowledge it - and we could need to borrow a lot more over the next few months, amybe even years.
At the end of it all, we're still on the same page. I just don't think Brexit will make very much difference economically, long term it may work out in our favour depending on the type of government we have, we know the EU is protectionist at heart, but outside we have the power to vote in a government who will push for a more global outlook and push our non-EU trade to new records. Inside the EU we will depend on 27 other electorates aligning with this view and hoping that we can include services trade in any deal the EU does with other nations.
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
More likely looking for someone who will win in 2020 and save their job. Not many options on the Leave side....
In the event of a Leave vote, I think Chairman of the Conservative Party would be a good post for Mr Hannan, having been made redundant from his current job.
Having said I'd sit the referendum out, I've actually been delivering leaflets across my ward for the past few days. Nothing from the official campaign - but a leaflet from our MEP talking about their work, and what they are achieving through the EU. It hardly mentions the referendum but people have said it was refreshing and informative compared to the shouting of the campaigns. We'll have to see.
One thing I have noticed, lots of LEAVE posters on major road junctions, at the side of A roads etc, but several small remain posters on the houses in my ward, in some areas where I wouldn't expect. Leave clearly more visible, but road junctions don't vote as often as people in my experience. No idea if it's anything more than a straw in the wind.
Almost at the stage where whichever side wins, I want them to win well - so there's no suggestion that we'll have a rerun any time soon.
I drove through a main road in a Lib dem area last night. Usually at election time it has 6+ LD houses with posters, 1 Con and 1 UKIP. This time just 3 for LEAVE.
I took a long stroll round parts of my town yesterday evening.
What is interesting is there was comparatively little in the way of posters from either side compared to a GE. This is not an area where people are shy about expressing their vote.
However what little there was was enormously stereotyped. The few Remain posters are only to be spotted on the most wealthy streets, most definitely As and Bs. Most amusingly the Labour office plastered on Remain posters is in one of those very wealthy areas. Everywhere else you only get Leave posters.
I have seen Labour In and LD In posters on some modest cottage windows, as well as a Leave poster on the same road and a huge Leave poster and UKIP Leave poster on a fence by a house by the main road
I should point out where I live should be one of the better Leave areas so I'm not drawing conclusions about the vote from it, I just found it funny from the conversations we've had on here. I could take one look at a house and guess correctly what poster it would have.
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
Maybe, but he bloody well ought to be. He's single handedly lost huge numbera of voter, MPs, donors and member's confidence. Way to go Dave.
He only needs to lose half a dozen MPs to leave a hung Parliament! Combined with the already hung Lords, there's pretty much no legislation going through except a budget that cuts taxes and spending.
I am no fan of Corbyn, but have warmed to him a bit during the EURef campaign.
Corbyn was absolutely correct to point out that constraining EU immigration whilst inside the EU was futile and pretending it was possible was a complete lie.
One of my Irish sister-in-laws is holidaying in Cornwall and is complaining how rude, stand-offish and unwelcoming the locals. She's comparing it with Liverpool and is amazed at the difference. I'm not a great Scouser fan, despite having lived here for a few years. They do have their faults, but stand-offish and unwelcoming, they most definitely are not.
A few years ago, I was on the last train from Lime Street to Manchester and I got talking to some Mancs. Drink had been taken and they noticed my Boston United football shirt. The usual good-natured banter ensued, but suddenly a group of Scousers descended on us to defend me.
I had to restrain them from marmalising the Mancs.
Now it could be courteous neighbourliness, or it could be they don't like Mancs much. I wish Burnham good luck with his Mayoral bid, but I admit to being surprised.
Just out of interest, how accurate did the anecdata posted on this forum prove to be for GE 2015?
Not very well, in my memory. Mr. Smithson, OGH, insisted that it was impossible (not just unlikely but impossible) for the Conservatives to win an overall majority unless they were ten point something ahead in the polls. The general range of opinion resembled the perceived wisdom (NOM). As to actual anecdotes I seem to recall we had many, mostly favouring the poster's perceived views.
The star of the evening was Ave_it, who we don't see to much of these days. Once the results started to come in he called it correct down to one seat. I have always thought that Ave_it got far too little credit for that.
I think the over reliance on polling and ignoring anecdata was very pronounced at GE2015. Especially so with conventional wisdom on here re LDs being immune. That was most misleading.
Watching what politicians are doing, rather than saying proved very helpful. Last ditch meetings with Russell Brand, PM going to what looked like odd locations et al.
Cameron appearing before Number 10 to plead for votes yesterday...Major and Blair putting the frighteners on NI. These look weird for a campaign that's winning.
On tw8tter - German CBI pleads for no tariffs with UK post brexit.
For all the overblown rhetoric around at the moment, if we actually vote to leave it will be quickly replaced by pragmatism on the part of those around the table negotiating.
Merkel's up for election next year, so is Hollande. They won't want to make themselves unpopular at home by stifling their own trade with the UK, most of which is exports to the UK.
A sterling devaluation of 10-30% will do a fair bit of the stifling - another Brexiquence hardly likely to endear us to our continental friends just after we tell them to FO
A Sterling devaluation of that level would hurt Germany more than it would hurt us since we both compete in the same finished manufactured goods export markets. Given how bad our current account deficit is, a devaluation of that kind would probably be quite welcome.
Indeed - it would make it harder for Germany to sell to the UK and make them and other EU leaders much less willing to offer free trade to cut price UK exports. Sadly Britain has had numerous devaluations over many years and yet we still struggle to sell. Why should this be any different?
Rubbish. The last Sterling devaluation oversaw the largest growth in manufacturing since the 80s. As always the facts contradict your stupid claims.
A strong economy doesn't need to devalue its currency to do well. One tries to ignore the personal rudeness but as ever you push one to the limit.
Key words, a strong economy. This economy is built on sand. We have a 7% current account deficit and a 4.5% fiscal deficit. Brexit ir no Brexit, Osborne has built a weak economy based on borrowing from future generations to pay for today's mistakes.
It may or not be fair to criticise Osborne for this (and 6 years is, in the context of a developed economy, not a long time) but could you point me to a time when, on your tests, the economy was not built on sand?
I wonder if the final polls are going to pick up any last minute switchback to Remain?
Incidentally have PBers noticed any significant campaigning by less high profile Tory MPs who've declared for Remain? Helen Grant has been conspicuous by her almost total absence here.
Whos Helen Grant?
MP for Maidstone and the Weald. While I am a LD Remainer my son campaigns for Leave and has wryly observed that had Maidstone been captured by the LDs at the last election (it was a target seat strange as that may seem in hindsight) the LD MP would be campaigning far more actively that Ms Grant has done. There may be parallels in other seats.
That's interesting - lots of MPs are invisible in their own seats, for career survival reasons. IIRC someone pretty noisy in Gavin Barwell's local party has just resigned and written an open letter that's been all over Twitter. She's not impressed at his behaviour, and made a veiled threat about how he'd be writing another book shortly - this time on how to lose a marginal seat.
Barwell is such a publicity seeker that a local paper advised him to stop sending them pr articles some time ago. When I first saw him I thought that cannibals had shrunk his head and left the rest alone.
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
More likely looking for someone who will win in 2020 and save their job. Not many options on the Leave side....
In the event of a Leave vote, I think Chairman of the Conservative Party would be a good post for Mr Hannan, having been made redundant from his current job.
Wonder what his due-diligence reference from the EU would look like . . .
No new trade barriers post brexit then. None, zip, nada, zilch.
Oh we're listening to experts now ?
Mr. Eagles, I saw some figures this morning, I don't know how accurate they are, but they made interesting reading.
Suppose if we voted to Leave and the EU decided to punish us by treating us the same way as Korea, Australia, the USA etc.. We would face tariffs on our exports of 3 to 4%.
The alternative is that we continue to pay so as we are not subject to such tariffs. The amount we pay (nett) is some £8.5bn.
Given the amount we export to the EU that £8.5bn is equivalent to a tariff of 7%.
In other words even if we were subject to EU import tariffs we would still be better off out. Plus of course the financial situation would be improved by us imposing our own tariffs on imports from the EU.
You are a lawyer, assume for the sake of argument that the figures I have given you are correct and argue how this is a good deal financially for the UK.
I'm not Tony Blair, I'm not going to base an argument on some unsourced data.
I need hard numbers.
There arent any. They change all the time and you have to use your best judgement.
Surely the most obvious solution if Brexit happens is for the UK to join TTIP as a third party with the US and EU, under the same terms as the other two parties.
I believe the current consensus is that the TTIP is dead if we leave. One of the reasons Obama was so vociferous in his support for remain is that the US realises that without our voice to push their agenda the TTIP fails. He also made a big song and dance about getting the Germans to sign something when he went there. If anything a US-UK deal will be more likely post Brexit than the TTIP passing, it will just be slightly later, and we may have to accepts ISDS, but the US are apparently unwilling to sign TTIP without them anyway.
Ein Brexit bringt weder für die britische noch für die deutsche Wirtschaft einen Vorteil.
Translation: A brexit is of no benefit whatsoever to either the British or the German economy.
Na und ?
Er hat Angst.
He's not afraid (did you listen to the interview? he says he's still managing to sleep at night), but he is extremely worried about the potential effects of a brexit on both the British and German economies.
Obviously, as a representative of German industry, he doesn't want to see new tariffs, but I doubt that that's going to cut much ice with the German government, let alone the EU. Why should the UK be treated any differently to Japan or the US by the EU post-brexit?
Surely the most obvious solution if Brexit happens is for the UK to join TTIP as a third party with the US and EU, under the same terms as the other two parties.
Great plan. The EU states open up their markets to the US and the UK, as a non-member, reaps most of the the benefits of the inward investment.
We just need to figure out how to do this without the EU noticing.
Good morning it’s eight o'clock on Thursday 6 October. You’re listening to the Today programme on BBC Radio 4 with me John Humphrys.
The waiting’s over. In just a few moments we’ll be speaking to Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Fresh from his leadership election victory at Conservative Party conference yesterday. But first the news headlines.
***
Trillions were wiped from the value of British pension funds for a second successive day yesterday as the Index of Leading Shares fell to levels not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008.
Chancellor Michael Gove will outline cuts to front-line services in an emergency budget scheduled for next week as the government struggles to come to terms with what the IFS warns may be a "deep and long lasting recession".
England manager Alan Pardew has warned players and fans "to keep their feet on the ground" after England’s World Cup qualification campaign began with a 1 - 0 victory over Malta at Wembley.
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
More likely looking for someone who will win in 2020 and save their job. Not many options on the Leave side....
In the event of a Leave vote, I think Chairman of the Conservative Party would be a good post for Mr Hannan, having been made redundant from his current job.
That's a good call. They'll definitely find something for him, that much is certain!
if voter registration in London has gone up by 7% since December 2015, anyone know how many votes that equates to, and why the numbers have increased so much?
I wonder if the final polls are going to pick up any last minute switchback to Remain?
Incidentally have PBers noticed any significant campaigning by less high profile Tory MPs who've declared for Remain? Helen Grant has been conspicuous by her almost total absence here.
Whos Helen Grant?
MP for Maidstone and the Weald. While I am a LD Remainer my son campaigns for Leave and has wryly observed that had Maidstone been captured by the LDs at the last election (it was a target seat strange as that may seem in hindsight) the LD MP would be campaigning far more actively that Ms Grant has done. There may be parallels in other seats.
That's interesting - lots of MPs are invisible in their own seats, for career survival reasons. IIRC someone pretty noisy in Gavin Barwell's local party has just resigned and written an open letter that's been all over Twitter. She's not impressed at his behaviour, and made a veiled threat about how he'd be writing another book shortly - this time on how to lose a marginal seat.
Barwell is such a publicity seeker that a local paper advised him to stop sending them pr articles some time ago. When I first saw him I thought that cannibals had shrunk his head and left the rest alone.
0_o
So do I win the bitch of the day comment Plato?
I thought you were spot on - and what an attention seeking numpty Barwell is. I worked in Norfolk when Charles Clarke was MP. He'd attend the opening of an envelop to get in the press.
Just went round the main high street in a market town in Wiltshire. Deep blue county, obviously, but the town is LD controlled. A voteLeave stall out, not Remain stall. Yeah, I know, anecdotal and pointless, but honestly, it's the last day of campaigning for crying out loud. I've had a mail out from Leave since the start of the campaign, but I don't think anything from remain since the government booklet, and a BSE sheet at least a month before campaigning officially opened.
If it's not representative of opinion round here, it's still lazy.
Remain were out twice at central London tube stations on Monday and Tuesday, Leave were nowhere to be seen, both sides are now focusing on getting out their vote
That was my point - this is a LD voting town in a county I am sure will be heavily for Leave, it must have more Remainers than the rest of the county. Catching some inthe town today would seem worthwhile to firm them up.
One of my Irish sister-in-laws is holidaying in Cornwall and is complaining how rude, stand-offish and unwelcoming the locals. She's comparing it with Liverpool and is amazed at the difference. I'm not a great Scouser fan, despite having lived here for a few years. They do have their faults, but stand-offish and unwelcoming, they most definitely are not.
A few years ago, I was on the last train from Lime Street to Manchester and I got talking to some Mancs. Drink had been taken and they noticed my Boston United football shirt. The usual good-natured banter ensued, but suddenly a group of Scousers descended on us to defend me.
I had to restrain them from marmalising the Mancs.
Now it could be courteous neighbourliness, or it could be they don't like Mancs much. I wish Burnham good luck with his Mayoral bid, but I admit to being surprised.
The West Country in general, and Cornwall in particular, are known to be taciturn and self-contained. An outsider settling in Cornwall will still be a foreigner even after 40 years in the county. This is unwelcoming by many standards, especially those of the North. But they are also wonderful people in their own way. No particular reason they should conform to visitors' or new arrivals' expectations of them.
Ein Brexit bringt weder für die britische noch für die deutsche Wirtschaft einen Vorteil.
Translation: A brexit is of no benefit whatsoever to either the British or the German economy.
Na und ?
Er hat Angst.
He's not afraid (did you listen to the interview? he says he's still managing to sleep at night), but he is extremely worried about the potential effects of a brexit on both the British and German economies.
Obviously, as a representative of German industry, he doesn't want to see new tariffs, but I doubt that that's going to cut much ice with the German government, let alone the EU. Why should the UK be treated any differently to Japan or the US by the EU post-brexit?
He's German. He will put Germany's interests first and foremost. Merkel is in no position to ignore the BDI. Imo we will have a bit of sword fencing for a year under the safe auspices of Article 50 until the elections are out of the way. Then all will say how tough negotiations have been and settle.
Either that or we get a second negotiation to stay in.
Just out of interest, how accurate did the anecdata posted on this forum prove to be for GE 2015?
Not very well, in my memory. Mr. Smithson, OGH, insisted that it was impossible (not just unlikely but impossible) for the Conservatives to win an overall majority unless they were ten point something ahead in the polls. The general range of opinion resembled the perceived wisdom (NOM). As to actual anecdotes I seem to recall we had many, mostly favouring the poster's perceived views.
The star of the evening was Ave_it, who we don't see to much of these days. Once the results started to come in he called it correct down to one seat. I have always thought that Ave_it got far too little credit for that.
I think the over reliance on polling and ignoring anecdata was very pronounced at GE2015. Especially so with conventional wisdom on here re LDs being immune. That was most misleading.
Watching what politicians are doing, rather than saying proved very helpful. Last ditch meetings with Russell Brand, PM going to what looked like odd locations et al.
Cameron appearing before Number 10 to plead for votes yesterday...Major and Blair putting the frighteners on NI. These look weird for a campaign that's winning.
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
Maybe, but he bloody well ought to be. He's single handedly lost huge numbera of voter, MPs, donors and member's confidence. Way to go Dave.
You can argue his tactics made it worse - but the fundamental problem is he was for In and so are many others in the Tory party, but large numbers, probably a majority at least of Members, are for Out. At crunch time, the actual vote, no leader could keep them all happy. I know, I know someone will all would have been fine if he had sat things out, or been nice, or whatever, but that's crap - all sides could have done nothing, and theTories would still have been split. Maybe not as much, but still split.
So he is not the cause of the problem. He just has been incapable of addressing it.
I wonder if the final polls are going to pick up any last minute switchback to Remain?
Incidentally have PBers noticed any significant campaigning by less high profile Tory MPs who've declared for Remain? Helen Grant has been conspicuous by her almost total absence here.
Whos Helen Grant?
MP for Maidstone and the Weald. While I am a LD Remainer my son campaigns for Leave and has wryly observed that had Maidstone been captured by the LDs at the last election (it was a target seat strange as that may seem in hindsight) the LD MP would be campaigning far more actively that Ms Grant has done. There may be parallels in other seats.
That's interesting - lots of MPs are invisible in their own seats, for career survival reasons. IIRC someone pretty noisy in Gavin Barwell's local party has just resigned and written an open letter that's been all over Twitter. She's not impressed at his behaviour, and made a veiled threat about how he'd be writing another book shortly - this time on how to lose a marginal seat.
Barwell is such a publicity seeker that a local paper advised him to stop sending them pr articles some time ago. When I first saw him I thought that cannibals had shrunk his head and left the rest alone.
You seem to specialiZe in appearance related nasty personal comments - are you such a looker yourself?
If the early results are likely to be strongly for Leave will Betfair odds change dramatically in the early hours? Is it worth a bet on Leave now that can be covered when the first results come in?
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
More likely looking for someone who will win in 2020 and save their job. Not many options on the Leave side....
In the event of a Leave vote, I think Chairman of the Conservative Party would be a good post for Mr Hannan, having been made redundant from his current job.
If Leave win, like most Remain minded Tories I'll respect that and do my best to make it work. That might change should IDS be given any more responsibility than minding the commons creche
Good morning it’s eight o'clock on Thursday 6 October. You’re listening to the Today programme on BBC Radio 4 with me John Humphrys.
The waiting’s over. In just a few moments we’ll be speaking to Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Fresh from his leadership election victory at Conservative Party conference yesterday. But first the news headlines.
***
Trillions were wiped from the value of British pension funds for a second successive day yesterday as the Index of Leading Shares fell to levels not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008.
Chancellor Michael Gove will outline cuts to front-line services in an emergency budget scheduled for next week as the government struggles to come to terms with what the IFS warns may be a "deep and long lasting recession".
England manager Alan Pardew has warned players and fans "to keep their feet on the ground" after England’s World Cup qualification campaign began with a 1 - 0 victory over Malta at Wembley.
One of my Irish sister-in-laws is holidaying in Cornwall and is complaining how rude, stand-offish and unwelcoming the locals. She's comparing it with Liverpool and is amazed at the difference. I'm not a great Scouser fan, despite having lived here for a few years. They do have their faults, but stand-offish and unwelcoming, they most definitely are not.
A few years ago, I was on the last train from Lime Street to Manchester and I got talking to some Mancs. Drink had been taken and they noticed my Boston United football shirt. The usual good-natured banter ensued, but suddenly a group of Scousers descended on us to defend me.
I had to restrain them from marmalising the Mancs.
Now it could be courteous neighbourliness, or it could be they don't like Mancs much. I wish Burnham good luck with his Mayoral bid, but I admit to being surprised.
He was here last night to say some gracious things to Nick Palmer
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
More likely looking for someone who will win in 2020 and save their job. Not many options on the Leave side....
In the event of a Leave vote, I think Chairman of the Conservative Party would be a good post for Mr Hannan, having been made redundant from his current job.
If Leave win, like most Remain minded Tories I'll respect that and do my best to make it work. That might change should IDS be given any more responsibility than minding the commons creche
Chairman of the party would be a good place for Hannan to be if we voted Remain, to be honest. In some alternate universes, he's cabinet material, although that might now be a stretch.
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
More likely looking for someone who will win in 2020 and save their job. Not many options on the Leave side....
In the event of a Leave vote, I think Chairman of the Conservative Party would be a good post for Mr Hannan, having been made redundant from his current job.
That's a good call. They'll definitely find something for him, that much is certain!
I wonder if the final polls are going to pick up any last minute switchback to Remain?
Incidentally have PBers noticed any significant campaigning by less high profile Tory MPs who've declared for Remain? Helen Grant has been conspicuous by her almost total absence here.
Whos Helen Grant?
MP for Maidstone and the Weald. While I am a LD Remainer my son campaigns for Leave and has wryly observed that had Maidstone been captured by the LDs at the last election (it was a target seat strange as that may seem in hindsight) the LD MP would be campaigning far more actively that Ms Grant has done. There may be parallels in other seats.
That's interesting - lots of MPs are invisible in their own seats, for career survival reasons. IIRC someone pretty noisy in Gavin Barwell's local party has just resigned and written an open letter that's been all over Twitter. She's not impressed at his behaviour, and made a veiled threat about how he'd be writing another book shortly - this time on how to lose a marginal seat.
Barwell is such a publicity seeker that a local paper advised him to stop sending them pr articles some time ago. When I first saw him I thought that cannibals had shrunk his head and left the rest alone.
Mr. Icarus, Betfair was very slow to change at the General Election even when solid evidence (Nuneaton, for example) had come in.
On the other hand yes versus no is a simpler proposition, and if the polls have called it wrongly one way or the other and there is going to be a clear win, I have thought this would fairly quickly become apparent? Thus unless there is indeed to be a knife edge contest, I would expect the markets (of all sorts) to move quickly in one direction or the other?
Good morning it’s eight o'clock on Thursday 6 October. You’re listening to the Today programme on BBC Radio 4 with me John Humphrys.
The waiting’s over. In just a few moments we’ll be speaking to Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Fresh from his leadership election victory at Conservative Party conference yesterday. But first the news headlines.
***
Trillions were wiped from the value of British pension funds for a second successive day yesterday as the Index of Leading Shares fell to levels not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008.
Chancellor Michael Gove will outline cuts to front-line services in an emergency budget scheduled for next week as the government struggles to come to terms with what the IFS warns may be a "deep and long lasting recession".
England manager Alan Pardew has warned players and fans "to keep their feet on the ground" after England’s World Cup qualification campaign began with a 1 - 0 victory over Malta at Wembley.
" Why should the UK be treated any differently to Japan or the US by the EU post-brexit?"
Why, indeed? And let us not forget all the other countries that are outside the EU, outside the single market and yet manage to trade with it very successfully.
I wonder if the final polls are going to pick up any last minute switchback to Remain?
Incidentally have PBers noticed any significant campaigning by less high profile Tory MPs who've declared for Remain? Helen Grant has been conspicuous by her almost total absence here.
Whos Helen Grant?
MP for Maidstone and the Weald. While I am a LD Remainer my son campaigns for Leave and has wryly observed that had Maidstone been captured by the LDs at the last election (it was a target seat strange as that may seem in hindsight) the LD MP would be campaigning far more actively that Ms Grant has done. There may be parallels in other seats.
That's interesting - lots of MPs are invisible in their own seats, for career survival reasons. IIRC someone pretty noisy in Gavin Barwell's local party has just resigned and written an open letter that's been all over Twitter. She's not impressed at his behaviour, and made a veiled threat about how he'd be writing another book shortly - this time on how to lose a marginal seat.
Barwell is such a publicity seeker that a local paper advised him to stop sending them pr articles some time ago. When I first saw him I thought that cannibals had shrunk his head and left the rest alone.
You seem to specialiZe in appearance related nasty personal comments - are you such a looker yourself?
One of my Irish sister-in-laws is holidaying in Cornwall and is complaining how rude, stand-offish and unwelcoming the locals. She's comparing it with Liverpool and is amazed at the difference. I'm not a great Scouser fan, despite having lived here for a few years. They do have their faults, but stand-offish and unwelcoming, they most definitely are not.
A few years ago, I was on the last train from Lime Street to Manchester and I got talking to some Mancs. Drink had been taken and they noticed my Boston United football shirt. The usual good-natured banter ensued, but suddenly a group of Scousers descended on us to defend me.
I had to restrain them from marmalising the Mancs.
Now it could be courteous neighbourliness, or it could be they don't like Mancs much. I wish Burnham good luck with his Mayoral bid, but I admit to being surprised.
He was here last night to say some gracious things to Nick Palmer
I'm laughing my c*ck off, only the other day the blog was full of the usual anti-Farage bo**cks over the poster. The kippers and people with non partisan views who have been about long enough to know that this was just the latest instalment of the Farage is a racist agenda.
Well here we are again for the umpteenthj time and the public don't agree with the hand wringing, yogurt knitting doomsters. I wish I had put a bet on Farage every time this happened, I would be rich man by now. Never mind guys and galls, you can have another go to say that Farage has gone beyond the pale again sometime soon, unfortunately by then we will be Party of an Independent United Kingdom by then.
Job done..
Ho, Ho,Ho!!!
Pretty sure Farage hasn't done Leave any favours in this referendum. Don't think you'd have made much money betting on him either. I hope you find your cock soon.
Mr. B2, it may actually be more complicated to call.
Whilst you're right it's overtly simpler (one binary nationwide choice rather than 650 mini-elections) turnout matters far more. If Leave do amazingly well in a certain area that reports early, but turnout in other Leave areas is far below that of Remain areas, then the initial report might suggest a Leave landslide but be a complete red herring.
Boulton: Labour voters now hold the key to which way Britain goes...
Yes - they seem very uncertain though. Honestly Labour and the Tories have this bizarre problem where they easily get hundreds of safe seats, but their voters don't trust the leaderships at all, not even the Corbynistas (granted, his support is not fulsome for the EU)
London Highways companies have just put in place emergency flood clearance measures for London area overnight into tomorrow due to weather warning from Met Office.
Please can tomorrow be absolutely pissing down all day in London. Pretty please!
No, the storms will track along the south coast from the Isle of Wight, head across north Kent to the Essex coast just skimming the eastern Boroughs of London, then head north towards Lincolnshire...
Thunderstorms in Kent, Essex, East London, Lincolnshire - aren't they areas of relative UKIP strength? God's trying to tell you guys something!
I wonder if the final polls are going to pick up any last minute switchback to Remain?
Incidentally have PBers noticed any significant campaigning by less high profile Tory MPs who've declared for Remain? Helen Grant has been conspicuous by her almost total absence here.
Whos Helen Grant?
MP for Maidstone and the Weald. While I am a LD Remainer my son campaigns for Leave and has wryly observed that had Maidstone been captured by the LDs at the last election (it was a target seat strange as that may seem in hindsight) the LD MP would be campaigning far more actively that Ms Grant has done. There may be parallels in other seats.
That's interesting - lots of MPs are invisible in their own seats, for career survival reasons. IIRC someone pretty noisy in Gavin Barwell's local party has just resigned and written an open letter that's been all over Twitter. She's not impressed at his behaviour, and made a veiled threat about how he'd be writing another book shortly - this time on how to lose a marginal seat.
Barwell is such a publicity seeker that a local paper advised him to stop sending them pr articles some time ago. When I first saw him I thought that cannibals had shrunk his head and left the rest alone.
You seem to specialiZe in appearance related nasty personal comments - are you such a looker yourself?
It's not been a terribly edifying campaign, on either side. But was there any other route to 50% for Brexit? Serious question. And was there any other way of Remain stopping them other than offering their own distortions?
Whether the ends will have justified the means is of course one of the oldest questions in politics.
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
More likely looking for someone who will win in 2020 and save their job. Not many options on the Leave side....
In the event of a Leave vote, I think Chairman of the Conservative Party would be a good post for Mr Hannan, having been made redundant from his current job.
If Leave win, like most Remain minded Tories I'll respect that and do my best to make it work. That might change should IDS be given any more responsibility than minding the commons creche
Chairman of the party would be a good place for Hannan to be if we voted Remain, to be honest. In some alternate universes, he's cabinet material, although that might now be a stretch.
It would be good to see him switch to Westminster. He's done his stint well as an MEP, and will either be redundant or irrelevant in the future. Maybe he'll stand down as MEP in 2019 and find a friendly MP in his patch who wants to retire. If Hannan sees himself as Cabinet material (and he should), then he needs to be on the green benches.
An interesting aside. There are currently 19 Tory MEPs, in the event we leave the EU and the seat reductions and boundary changes in Westminster go through, there could be a lot of people fighting over the remaining seats come 2020 - maybe 35 or 40 retirements needed?
"An outsider settling in Cornwall will still be a foreigner even after 40 years in the county. This is unwelcoming by many standards, especially those of the North."
Sounds a bit like Boston. Unfortunate in some ways for both the new and the old.
compouter2 ...... a few thousand posts pre GE, never posted again since that night...
I don't understand the reticence - I was predicting a Lab majority in January 2015, which was embarrassing in hindsight. Obviously there was quite a bit of Tory triumphalism around inthe immediate aftermath, but that's hilarious to consider now seeing them rip themselves to pieces but still be convinced, largely, that they cannot lose in 2020.
Just out of interest, how accurate did the anecdata posted on this forum prove to be for GE 2015?
Almost certainly confirmation bias, but I remember notme, TSE and MarqueeMark all perplexed, alongside myself, that the polls do didn't reflect what we saw on the doorstep.
For me I knew we were doing well on the day itself - got cheered and hooted at encouragingly just for wearing a blue rosette.
Interesting - the stories on here all seem to be swinging leave (I know the balance on here is skewed more toward leave PBers, but still...), paints a worrying picture for remain.
On the other hand, the GE polls did awfully regarding seat projections, but were within near enough within MOE for tory and labour votes, and near enough spot on for the rest. In a referendum, there's no seats to worry about and vote share is all that matters, so they may be more reliable in this vote.
Just out of interest, how accurate did the anecdata posted on this forum prove to be for GE 2015?
Not very well, in my memory. Mr. Smithson, OGH, insisted that it was impossible (not just unlikely but impossible) for the Conservatives to win an overall majority unless they were ten point something ahead in the polls. The general range of opinion resembled the perceived wisdom (NOM). As to actual anecdotes I seem to recall we had many, mostly favouring the poster's perceived views.
The star of the evening was Ave_it, who we don't see to much of these days. Once the results started to come in he called it correct down to one seat. I have always thought that Ave_it got far too little credit for that.
I think the over reliance on polling and ignoring anecdata was very pronounced at GE2015. Especially so with conventional wisdom on here re LDs being immune. That was most misleading.
Watching what politicians are doing, rather than saying proved very helpful. Last ditch meetings with Russell Brand, PM going to what looked like odd locations et al.
Cameron appearing before Number 10 to plead for votes yesterday...Major and Blair putting the frighteners on NI. These look weird for a campaign that's winning.
Basically it was the YouGov daily polling of a sample unrepresentative of the UK electorate and their inability to correct it that caused most of the problems.
The problem with the LibDems is that they ended up in a UKIP sort of position - lots of votes but insufficient concentration to win/ retain seats. (Illegal) Tory targeting brought them down. You may remember Mr Cameron promising Tory MPs they wouldn't lose their seats.
We had pretty well nailed on the fact that Labour were going to collapse in Scotland - but did not pick up the fact that a lot of Labour support (which DID go up remember) was in areas that were already solid labour)
Anecdotes are suggesting that the traditional Labour voters (the ones who don't fill in polling questionnaires and who don't have landlines and are very bigoted (TIC)) are still being missed, however. In the GE they don't bother voting. . .
As you say - the non-verbal signals are heavily pro-Leave.
How he's doing with Con MPs, and Con members though...
Remain still has a plurality of Tory MPs, I expect Cameron would not be in floods of tears if some Tory members went to UKIP
It takes 40? 50? MPs to trigger a leadership contest?
If Leave wins, or Con voters overwhelmingly vote Leave, all the Remain Con MPs are going to be looking for a Leave leader to hide behind at the next election.
More likely looking for someone who will win in 2020 and save their job. Not many options on the Leave side....
In the event of a Leave vote, I think Chairman of the Conservative Party would be a good post for Mr Hannan, having been made redundant from his current job.
That's a good call. They'll definitely find something for him, that much is certain!
Was handed my first street leaflet of the campaign this morning: from Remain. (A pair of old codgers too, which astonished me.)
I had two for Remain in Edinburgh Old Town at the weekend. Youngish women. Simple and quite slick leaflets. Preaching to the converted in these parts. Presumably a GOTV exercise.
Their main job seemed to be telling foreigners how to get to the Castle.
I'm laughing my c*ck off, only the other day the blog was full of the usual anti-Farage bo**cks over the poster. The kippers and people with non partisan views who have been about long enough to know that this was just the latest instalment of the Farage is a racist agenda.
Well here we are again for the umpteenthj time and the public don't agree with the hand wringing, yogurt knitting doomsters. I wish I had put a bet on Farage every time this happened, I would be rich man by now. Never mind guys and galls, you can have another go to say that Farage has gone beyond the pale again sometime soon, unfortunately by then we will be Party of an Independent United Kingdom by then.
Job done..
Ho, Ho,Ho!!!
Pretty sure Farage hasn't done Leave any favours in this referendum. Don't think you'd have made much money betting on him either. I hope you find your cock soon.
As a general rule of political betting, betting the kippers to flop is a good way to make money.
Comments
Link to leadership contest rules and processes:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/files/snpc-01366-2-1.pdf
Corbyn was absolutely correct to point out that constraining EU immigration whilst inside the EU was futile and pretending it was possible was a complete lie.
One of my Irish sister-in-laws is holidaying in Cornwall and is complaining how rude, stand-offish and unwelcoming the locals. She's comparing it with Liverpool and is amazed at the difference. I'm not a great Scouser fan, despite having lived here for a few years. They do have their faults, but stand-offish and unwelcoming, they most definitely are not.
A few years ago, I was on the last train from Lime Street to Manchester and I got talking to some Mancs. Drink had been taken and they noticed my Boston United football shirt. The usual good-natured banter ensued, but suddenly a group of Scousers descended on us to defend me.
I had to restrain them from marmalising the Mancs.
Now it could be courteous neighbourliness, or it could be they don't like Mancs much. I wish Burnham good luck with his Mayoral bid, but I admit to being surprised.
Watching what politicians are doing, rather than saying proved very helpful. Last ditch meetings with Russell Brand, PM going to what looked like odd locations et al.
Cameron appearing before Number 10 to plead for votes yesterday...Major and Blair putting the frighteners on NI. These look weird for a campaign that's winning.
The result there was UKIP/Carswell 59.7%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_by-election,_2014
Obviously, as a representative of German industry, he doesn't want to see new tariffs, but I doubt that that's going to cut much ice with the German government, let alone the EU. Why should the UK be treated any differently to Japan or the US by the EU post-brexit?
The waiting’s over. In just a few moments we’ll be speaking to Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Fresh from his leadership election victory at Conservative Party conference yesterday. But first the news headlines.
***
Trillions were wiped from the value of British pension funds for a second successive day yesterday as the Index of Leading Shares fell to levels not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008.
Chancellor Michael Gove will outline cuts to front-line services in an emergency budget scheduled for next week as the government struggles to come to terms with what the IFS warns may be a "deep and long lasting recession".
England manager Alan Pardew has warned players and fans "to keep their feet on the ground" after England’s World Cup qualification campaign began with a 1 - 0 victory over Malta at Wembley.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/105-days-after-brexit-and-boris-johnson-s-conservative-government-are-in-crises-a7094056.html
London Boroughs very eurosceptic: Havering
London Borougha relatively eurosceptic: Nil
London Boroughs mixed eaning to Eurosceptic: Redbridge, Bexley, Bromley, Ealing, Hillingdon.
London Boroughs 50/50: waltham forest, Newham, Lewisham, Croydon, Kingston, Richmond, Hounslow, Harrow,
London Boroughs Mixed leaning to Europhile: Enfield, Barnet, Wandsworth, Sutton, Islington.
London Broughs relatively Europhile: Haringey, Tower Hamlets, Merton, Ham & Fulham, Westminster.
London Boroughs Very Europhile: Brent, Camden, Hackney, Southwark, Lambeth.
Not Enough Data: Ken& Chelsea, City, Barking & Dagenham.
Either that or we get a second negotiation to stay in.
Sounds like a plot line for a film
http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/daily-mail-itv-news-final-political-poll-6th-may-2015/
So he is not the cause of the problem. He just has been incapable of addressing it.
Where's Eagles ?
Mine was absolute crap.
I'm calling it for Leave though, I don't let being so wrong at the GE hold me back.
Sensible folk there, best be on the safe side.
NW Hampshire seat, Kit Malthouse, Leave supporter
Basingstoke, Maria Miller, Remain supporter.
Why, indeed? And let us not forget all the other countries that are outside the EU, outside the single market and yet manage to trade with it very successfully.
Based on survey of 80,000 people all over GB no date given
Whilst you're right it's overtly simpler (one binary nationwide choice rather than 650 mini-elections) turnout matters far more. If Leave do amazingly well in a certain area that reports early, but turnout in other Leave areas is far below that of Remain areas, then the initial report might suggest a Leave landslide but be a complete red herring.
Should I stay or should go now
If I stay it will be trouble, if I leave it will be double......
Whether the ends will have justified the means is of course one of the oldest questions in politics.
Kellner: If Farage loses, Tory right will be less dangerous.
Mystic Pete.
An interesting aside. There are currently 19 Tory MEPs, in the event we leave the EU and the seat reductions and boundary changes in Westminster go through, there could be a lot of people fighting over the remaining seats come 2020 - maybe 35 or 40 retirements needed?
"An outsider settling in Cornwall will still be a foreigner even after 40 years in the county. This is unwelcoming by many standards, especially those of the North."
Sounds a bit like Boston. Unfortunate in some ways for both the new and the old.
On the other hand, the GE polls did awfully regarding seat projections, but were within near enough within MOE for tory and labour votes, and near enough spot on for the rest. In a referendum, there's no seats to worry about and vote share is all that matters, so they may be more reliable in this vote.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjPhzgxe3L0
The problem with the LibDems is that they ended up in a UKIP sort of position - lots of votes but insufficient concentration to win/ retain seats. (Illegal) Tory targeting brought them down. You may remember Mr Cameron promising Tory MPs they wouldn't lose their seats.
We had pretty well nailed on the fact that Labour were going to collapse in Scotland - but did not pick up the fact that a lot of Labour support (which DID go up remember) was in areas that were already solid labour)
Anecdotes are suggesting that the traditional Labour voters (the ones who don't fill in polling questionnaires and who don't have landlines and are very bigoted (TIC)) are still being missed, however. In the GE they don't bother voting. . .
As you say - the non-verbal signals are heavily pro-Leave.
Their main job seemed to be telling foreigners how to get to the Castle.