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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boost for Farage in the Ipsos satisfaction ratings on the day before the big vote
And Corbyn drops to new low with LAB voters
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Darn. Third like DK.
Sources tell @AFP EU members states will meet next week to open Turkey membership talks: https://t.co/sMa3WR5BGs https://t.co/CiAtRIUhM2
Farage ahead of Dave ? !
I must be turning into a metropolitan type, I wouldnt agree with that.
And Farage not taking a knock for THAT poster? But getting an uptick instead? Maybe it did its job after all...
What a weird campaign this has been. Thank God it's nearly over.
Interestingly, I think Scotland's result will be known before 2am. It was in the Independence Referendum. Clackmannanshire voted 54% to 46% No, which was very close to the actual result and came in at 1.30am. Clacks is a very good microcosm of Scotland and whatever the vote is there at 1.30am it will be very close to the Scottish result at the end of the count.
One thing I have noticed, lots of LEAVE posters on major road junctions, at the side of A roads etc, but several small remain posters on the houses in my ward, in some areas where I wouldn't expect. Leave clearly more visible, but road junctions don't vote as often as people in my experience. No idea if it's anything more than a straw in the wind.
Almost at the stage where whichever side wins, I want them to win well - so there's no suggestion that we'll have a rerun any time soon.
@LucyJones
"I don't think it has been long enough. Seriously. It has felt very rushed to me. Of course, we all know all why it has been rushed, which makes it even more frustrating. "
I agree that the whole process of renegotiation plus referendum has been rushed and the debate has been awful as a result. That was Cameron's choice and I am sure he had reasons for doing it so and I wouldn't pretend to understand them.
The result though has been sub-optimal. In fact I think it has been pretty bloody awful for the Conservative Party, political discourse in the UK and for Cameron himself.
The odds therefore continue to show REMAIN 1/4 with LEAVE on 3/1.
I imagine that the final polls aren't going to appear until latish this evening.
Merkel's up for election next year, so is Hollande. They won't want to make themselves unpopular at home by stifling their own trade with the UK, most of which is exports to the UK.
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I was listening to an Irish podcast on Brexit yesterday. Liam Halligan was the UK voice, he pointed out that if we vote Leave, the politics are going to throw every other consideration out of the window.
1. Other EU member states may well have their own membership referendums.
2. The UK is too big an economy for the EU to risk losing market share to non-EU options.
As with the Euro crisis, politics will trump procedures.
https://soundcloud.com/independentiepodcasts
SO, thanks for your and Dr Fox' anecdotes. It is important for the UK as a whole to recognize and reflect on how upsetting this whole campaign has been.
However, I am optimistic that for 95% or more of the population, this rancour will subside almost immediately the vote is done and dusted, and the talk of immigration will revert to normal levels.
At an individual level, I am sure that those already here will find a post-Brexit vote pretty much as welcoming as the one that existed 4 months ago. Hopefully your partner's wife will then be comfortable, and any relocation decisions are based on what is best for the family and the business.
For all the nastiness of this campaign, on both sides, the UK is, in my experience of traveling around the world, about as pragmatic and tolerant a place as exists.
Oh, wait...
But he oversold his deal, insulted our intelligence, then had to go further and further from reality in defending his shabby outcome. It wasn't enough to insult his natural support as "Little Englanders". No - he had to go the point of being ridiculed. I mean - war? Really Prime Minister? He's finished as a credible politician as a result of his campaign, even if he has got a narrow Remain result tomorrow.
And he could have been a national hero - if he'd only listened to Steve Hilton.
They are a big customer of ours, we are a small(er) customer of theirs....
Reuters also report that the majority of large German companies have concerns.
It seems to me that all the conversations we have read where people have been concerned about being locked out of the European Single Market have most likely been mirrored in Europe with big EU exporters and service providers worrying about being locked out of the UK Single Market.
Anyone else seeing a minor flaw in this line of thinking?
The publicity that Remain outrage gave it was perfect to achieve that end.
When will Remain learn "Do not feed the troll"
London Highways companies have just put in place emergency flood clearance measures for London area overnight into tomorrow due to weather warning from Met Office.
And of course, Germany is not the EU
Suppose if we voted to Leave and the EU decided to punish us by treating us the same way as Korea, Australia, the USA etc.. We would face tariffs on our exports of 3 to 4%.
The alternative is that we continue to pay so as we are not subject to such tariffs. The amount we pay (nett) is some £8.5bn.
Given the amount we export to the EU that £8.5bn is equivalent to a tariff of 7%.
In other words even if we were subject to EU import tariffs we would still be better off out. Plus of course the financial situation would be improved by us imposing our own tariffs on imports from the EU.
You are a lawyer, assume for the sake of argument that the figures I have given you are correct and argue how this is a good deal financially for the UK.
Incidentally have PBers noticed any significant campaigning by less high profile Tory MPs who've declared for Remain? Helen Grant has been conspicuous by her almost total absence here.
Outcome of the EU referendum will likely be known between 3:30am-4am on Friday 24th June #Brexit https://t.co/FSiTtu8uTp
Brexit bringt keinerlei Vorteile
Ein Brexit bringt weder für die britische noch für die deutsche Wirtschaft einen Vorteil.
Translation: A brexit is of no benefit whatsoever to either the British or the German economy.
I need hard numbers.
Put simply, the more pensioners there are in an area, the higher registration goes.
Some counting areas barely have 60% registration. These are places with low numbers of pensioners. Those over 80% registration have large numbers of pensioner registrations.
The problem with the "devaluation is great for exports" argument is that it only works if you have price elastic goods. Premium products and technologically innovative products (which is where an advanced economy should be focused) are much less price elastic than, for example, commodities.
Even I wasn't expecting that, LOL!
We're listening to people we agree with, to be sure. But they happen to be not campaigning, which probably increases the honesty quotient, and are talking about what they want if Brexit happens. I am sure they are for the most part people who have argued for Remain. But now the campaigning is over, they are looking realistically at how each scenario should play out.
And this is what we on the Brexit side predicted the experts who've argued so vehemently (and occasionally mendaciously) for Bremain would do should Brexit prevail.
FFS of course it is. Get over yourself.
Which is sort of ironic because, if we are being asked to Remain on that basis, we are being asked to do so on the basis of not trusting what they actually say.
The Remain position on Turkey is quite clear: The EU would, one day, like to welcome Turkey as a member, but, unfortunately, Turkey is not likely to be in a position compatible with membership for a very long time, if ever. Every EU country retains the right to veto Turkey's membership.
Happy bedfellows?
Anjem Choudary backs Remain because EU ‘stops unfair deportations’
Before that clock stops the EU may well have lost other big member states.
http://fortune.com/2016/06/08/eu-popularity-brexit-pew/