I think the party conference is the likely time for the handover. If leave win I don't expect Osborne to be a candidate and I would expect him to stand down then at the latest. Although I believe the consequences of leave are grossly overstated the Chancellor resigning in the first few days would be sub optimal.
I have always held the Chancellor in the highest regard but if Leave wins then him being reshuffled on Friday before the markets open may be almost too late. He has made his views on the British economy if we Leave abundantly clear and he'd have no post-Leave credibility left.
They brought the Tories back from the depths to the natural party of government again.
Maybe so, but they don't look like the natural party anymore! Corbynite Labour is still worse, but it's not as stark as it was - the Tories have gone bonkers and want us to believe they will still be able to work effectively with each other.
Anecdote: I saw a WWC neighbour in ex-local authority house near me has taken down his England flag today from his flagpole, and put up an EU flag instead. Drove past it on the way home.
Terrible omen. Feel sick.
The guy owns an EU flag??! Mentalist.
That's what I thought.
Thing is: this guy normally always flys England and Union flags. And I leafletted his house thinking he was a dead cert for Leave.
It's like a personal betrayal.
You should ask him. Does sound like he's making a point to someone, possibly a family member or neighbour.
Or the bloke that's been stuffing his letterbox with Leave leaflets?
I have always held the Chancellor in the highest regard but if Leave wins then him being reshuffled on Friday before the markets open may be almost too late.
How will we calm the markets?
Sack the chancellor.
Awesome.
How will we calm the markets? Install a Chancellor who is full of confidence about Britain's economic future. Keeping a Chancellor who is basically saying "the UK is doomed" basically means that you do indeed think the UK is doomed.
Exactly. Osborne has no faith in leaving the EU so must go if LEAVE wins. He has also lost so much credibility with the voters and markets that he is the proverbial "dead man walking". If REMAIN wins Cameron should unite the party by replacing Osborne with Andrea Leadsom.
Bloody hell. 'Take back control' being repeated constantly. It's driving me insane.
And the majority of listeners will live in safe seats where their MP has effectively a job for life, every GE campaign will pass them by, and they have no control over anything...
Good article Alastair, and some interesting points to think about.
If we do vote Leave, surely the Chancellor's job is untenable? He's promised Armageddon and would spook the markets if he were to stay in place.
If Dave is sensible he'll reshuffle Gove to CoE on Friday and announce to the Cabinet his intention to stand down over the summer, but remaining as PM until the leadership election at Conference. He knows he will be a lame duck in Parliament at this point, and can only pass anything if he can carry the whole PCP with him. Whatever Dave chooses to do, he will have to act very quickly once the result is known. He's upset a lot of his colleagues and Graham Brady's postman is likely to have a full sack on Monday if he doesn't reach out to them.
As for the next PM, if you're lucky there's still some 7/1 for Theresa May out there. She's managed to upset no-one by saying nothing in the referendum campaign, she's senior enough to be able to bring the party back together.
And if it all goes Pete Tong, Shadsy will lay you 10/1 on a general election this year, and another 10/1 on it being next year. If it's a Leave vote those prices won't last.
Anecdote: I saw a WWC neighbour in ex-local authority house near me has taken down his England flag today from his flagpole, and put up an EU flag instead. Drove past it on the way home.
Terrible omen. Feel sick.
It's like a personal betrayal.
What's the best way to drive turnout for Leave voters? Make them see a EU flag flying every day.
Boris is going to play to the crowd much better than in the ITV debate.
I've started to quite like him. He has personality deficiencies that make him entirely unsuitable to be PM but you can't fault his work ethic: he's worked his little socks off in this campaign.
This crowd is highly partisan. Far too much clapping and whooping going on.
Guess it was always going to be.
Getting an audience of neutrals would be pretty much impossible in the current febrile atmosphere, and too risky for the BBC if they failed. Far safer to give half the tickets to each side and allow them to nominate their half of the audience, which I suspect is what has happened.
Bloody hell. 'Take back control' being repeated constantly. It's driving me insane.
And the majority of listeners will live in safe seats where their MP has effectively a job for life, every GE campaign will pass them by, and they have no control over anything...
They did in 1945, 1983 and 1997, not to mention 2015 in Scotland.
" Of all the demographics I would expect a shift back to remain amongst retired people before Thursday."
I think you will be sadly disappointed. Well, you will be if my group of pensioners are typical. The idea that those richer in years care more for themselves and live in the past wanting no change are sadly misplaced in my experience. Every pensioner I have met, including myself, care more for the future of their offspring will have to cope with and vote accordingly.
This is big boy school tonight. Nail this and the pressure to find her a seat will be immense. I disagree with her on the EU but a Tory party led by Ruth would just be ace.
Anecdote: I saw a WWC neighbour in ex-local authority house near me has taken down his England flag today from his flagpole, and put up an EU flag instead. Drove past it on the way home.
Terrible omen. Feel sick.
I think you were hallucinating.
WWC, previously cross of St. George, now all of a sudden an EU flag?
This is big boy school tonight. Nail this and the pressure to find her a seat will be immense. I disagree with her on the EU but a Tory party led by Ruth would just be ace.
I don't think so, though I do support her in Scotland.
Bloody hell. 'Take back control' being repeated constantly. It's driving me insane.
And the majority of listeners will live in safe seats where their MP has effectively a job for life, every GE campaign will pass them by, and they have no control over anything...
They did in 1945, 1983 and 1997, not to mention 2015 in Scotland.
Reading through this site 90% of people think Leave will win, yet all bookmakers have leave at 3/1. Very very few people on here predicted a tory majority at the GE hence the bookies were in line with peoples thoughts on here i.e wrong. On the referendum they think massively different (and I am sure they read this site). I am totally lost by it all.
This is a betting website, presumably people come here because they are interested in betting on politics. Have you never seen a favourite beaten before? bookmakers have never been known to give away money, if any event is a certainty, they would take no bets on it. You can still back Remain at 2/7 so there is still doubt over the result, my feeling is that some big players have been betting with their hearts instead of their heads and the value lies with Leave. Look at the polls, the trend has been towards Leave for some time except for a wobble after the murder in Yorkshire (which probably wouldn't have translated into actual votes) My gut feeling is that the Remain vote is soft, the ludicrous scare stories fool very few people and surely there can't be anyone who is actually a fan of the EU (apart from people who work there) 3/1 Leave is good value and you can hedge it by backing the FTSE to rise on Friday, if Leave win, you collect from the bookies and if you buy actual shares, they'll recover in time anyway, if Remain does win, you collect on the stockmarket next week. That's what I'm doing, I'm also voting Leave and quite confident of Leave winning.
I agree entirely with your post. What I cant understand is as the polls are even and the general view is that Leave will win whay are they 3/1. Favourites are beaten all time, even very long odds shoys, but there are reasons why they are long odds on shots. I cannot see the reason why remain are 2/9. It makes no sense.
I have just had an email from the Labour party (i paid 3 quid to vote for Jez) reminding me there is an election on Thursday. It says the election is important. It allows me help to find my polling station and suggests I make a plan for when I vote. NO WHERE does it suggest I vote Remain.
'Britain after Brexit will be like Ireland in 1922, minus the shooting. Economic disruption, elites arguing with each other about how to deal with the bigger power and possible territorial breakaways.'
Anyone who can make the Tories the official opposition in Scotland finds walking on water easy. Hell she can even sell remain and what a piece of crap that is.
Personally, since everyone engages in Fear, I think people playing the 'you're playing project fear' card use it as a crutch, but I think it works.
This was well known and a clear move by Cameron/Osborne to continue the Amber Rudd line. Exactly why they are unfit to lead the Conservative party. Quite what Labour voting working class males make of all this is another matter.
Bloody hell. 'Take back control' being repeated constantly. It's driving me insane.
And the majority of listeners will live in safe seats where their MP has effectively a job for life, every GE campaign will pass them by, and they have no control over anything...
They did in 1945, 1983 and 1997, not to mention 2015 in Scotland.
" Of all the demographics I would expect a shift back to remain amongst retired people before Thursday."
I think you will be sadly disappointed. Well, you will be if my group of pensioners are typical. The idea that those richer in years care more for themselves and live in the past wanting no change are sadly misplaced in my experience. Every pensioner I have met, including myself, care more for the future of their offspring will have to cope with and vote accordingly.
If so then more of them should be switching to remain, surely.
My mother is a sample of one but she remains torn between her big-C dislike of the EU and her small-c reluctance to stake the future on what, at best, is a gamble
I have just had an email from the Labour party (i paid 3 quid to vote for Jez) reminding me there is an election on Thursday. It says the election is important. It allows me help to find my polling station and suggests I make a plan for when I vote. NO WHERE does it suggest I vote Remain.
I'm quite impressed, unless it's simply a mistake.
I think Khan suffers from lacking the charisma of both his predecessors as Mayor. He's not bad exactly, just lacks a little something. He's probably not as bad as their bad points though.
I have just had an email from the Labour party (i paid 3 quid to vote for Jez) reminding me there is an election on Thursday. It says the election is important. It allows me help to find my polling station and suggests I make a plan for when I vote. NO WHERE does it suggest I vote Remain.
I have just had an email from the Labour party (i paid 3 quid to vote for Jez) reminding me there is an election on Thursday. It says the election is important. It allows me help to find my polling station and suggests I make a plan for when I vote. NO WHERE does it suggest I vote Remain.
I have just had an email from the Labour party (i paid 3 quid to vote for Jez) reminding me there is an election on Thursday. It says the election is important. It allows me help to find my polling station and suggests I make a plan for when I vote. NO WHERE does it suggest I vote Remain.
Reading through this site 90% of people think Leave will win, yet all bookmakers have leave at 3/1. Very very few people on here predicted a tory majority at the GE hence the bookies were in line with peoples thoughts on here i.e wrong. On the referendum they think massively different (and I am sure they read this site). I am totally lost by it all.
This is a betting website, presumably people come here because they are interested in betting on politics. Have you never seen a favourite beaten before? bookmakers have never been known to give away money, if any event is a certainty, they would take no bets on it. You can still back Remain at 2/7 so there is still doubt over the result, my feeling is that some big players have been betting with their hearts instead of their heads and the value lies with Leave. Look at the polls, the trend has been towards Leave for some time except for a wobble after the murder in Yorkshire (which probably wouldn't have translated into actual votes) My gut feeling is that the Remain vote is soft, the ludicrous scare stories fool very few people and surely there can't be anyone who is actually a fan of the EU (apart from people who work there) 3/1 Leave is good value and you can hedge it by backing the FTSE to rise on Friday, if Leave win, you collect from the bookies and if you buy actual shares, they'll recover in time anyway, if Remain does win, you collect on the stockmarket next week. That's what I'm doing, I'm also voting Leave and quite confident of Leave winning.
I agree entirely with your post. What I cant understand is as the polls are even and the general view is that Leave will win whay are they 3/1. Favourites are beaten all time, even very long odds shoys, but there are reasons why they are long odds on shots. I cannot see the reason why remain are 2/9. It makes no sense.
'Britain after Brexit will be like Ireland in 1922, minus the shooting. Economic disruption, elites arguing with each other about how to deal with the bigger power and possible territorial breakaways.'
You forgot the swarm of locusts.
I dont find many people in RoI pining for the good old days of Ireland being in the UK and everything run from Westminster
I've sometimes thought one of Cameron's strengths is that he can get angry and hectoring and, generally, it works. Davidson is going angry, but I don't find it annoying. She's playing a bad hand though.
Comments
Guess it was always going to be.
Gisella, meanwhile is fantastic as ever.
PBTories for Gisella!
If we do vote Leave, surely the Chancellor's job is untenable? He's promised Armageddon and would spook the markets if he were to stay in place.
If Dave is sensible he'll reshuffle Gove to CoE on Friday and announce to the Cabinet his intention to stand down over the summer, but remaining as PM until the leadership election at Conference. He knows he will be a lame duck in Parliament at this point, and can only pass anything if he can carry the whole PCP with him. Whatever Dave chooses to do, he will have to act very quickly once the result is known. He's upset a lot of his colleagues and Graham Brady's postman is likely to have a full sack on Monday if he doesn't reach out to them.
As for the next PM, if you're lucky there's still some 7/1 for Theresa May out there. She's managed to upset no-one by saying nothing in the referendum campaign, she's senior enough to be able to bring the party back together.
And if it all goes Pete Tong, Shadsy will lay you 10/1 on a general election this year, and another 10/1 on it being next year. If it's a Leave vote those prices won't last.
Personally, since everyone engages in Fear, I think people playing the 'you're playing project fear' card use it as a crutch, but I think it works.
IT ISNT WORKING FOR YOU
" Of all the demographics I would expect a shift back to remain amongst retired people before Thursday."
I think you will be sadly disappointed. Well, you will be if my group of pensioners are typical. The idea that those richer in years care more for themselves and live in the past wanting no change are sadly misplaced in my experience. Every pensioner I have met, including myself, care more for the future of their offspring will have to cope with and vote accordingly.
WWC, previously cross of St. George, now all of a sudden an EU flag?
Seems a stretch..
Child free tax care.
Muppet
Favourites are beaten all time, even very long odds shoys, but there are reasons why they are long odds on shots. I cannot see the reason why remain are 2/9. It makes no sense.
It says the election is important. It allows me help to find my polling station and suggests I make a plan for when I vote.
NO WHERE does it suggest I vote Remain.
'Britain after Brexit will be like Ireland in 1922, minus the shooting. Economic disruption, elites arguing with each other about how to deal with the bigger power and possible territorial breakaways.'
You forgot the swarm of locusts.
Anyone who can make the Tories the official opposition in Scotland finds walking on water easy. Hell she can even sell remain and what a piece of crap that is.
Quite what Labour voting working class males make of all this is another matter.
Well delivered line
My mother is a sample of one but she remains torn between her big-C dislike of the EU and her small-c reluctance to stake the future on what, at best, is a gamble
Tooth and claw soon.
Send on to Guido?
'Take back control' is a positive action, 'no turning back' makes one feel passive, in the backseat.
Call him on it Boris. Call him on it!