Just been pointed out to me that the four page vote leave wraparound advert on the front and back of todays Metro handed out free all over London was, if you look at the small print on the back not anything to do with the Leave campaigns but 'promoted by JM Donaldson on behalf of the Democratic Unionist Party both of [the same address in Belfast]" !
never, Never, NEVER!
Well that's very creative
There's another row coming about spending limits if this is close, to add to all the other reasons that either side might have to challenge the result. If we end up with Florida 2000 again it's going to be a big mess, guaranteed to cause market panic until it's decided one way or the other.
I am sure I read here some months ago about there being no provision for a national recount. Can anyone confirm that is still the case, and if adequate security measures are in place to keep the ballot papers locked away in the event of a legal challenge?
@chrislockwd: Sorry to again hear Hilton and Gove putting immigration front and centre of Leave today. They do sound awfully like Farage.
Does that mean that REMAIN must win? What does another twitt from The Economist mag's staff add to the sum of human knowledge when they are all rabid europhiles?
Gove is a repulsive little toad who would quite happily roast his children alive if it furthered his vanity project.
Steve Hilton- he of the Big Society. I don't know what Cameron did to him to induce this monumental betrayal in their personal friendship. Can anyone guess?
All reports that I've seen suggest that the surprise is not that Hilton fell but that he ever rose so far. His interpersonal skills for one sound to be considerably lacking, and was his ability to see the bigger picture within which his pet projects needed to work.
The Hilton Intervention could really resonate. Immigration is THE issue of the campaign, Cameron has repeatedly been accused of being a fool over his immigration targets. Now we have Hilton, Cameron's original guru, telling us that Cameron knew the target was nonsense and he's be lying to us all about it for years and years.
How would people feel if car insurance could be priced differentially on the ground of race?
It should be priced differentially on the grounds of risk, given that is what drives the cost. I think (correct me if I'm wrong) the evidence shows that males are more likely to be in accidents than females, so can't see the problem in them being charged more.
The fundamental basis for the EJC ruling is that you cannot discriminate between people on factors that they cannot change - accidents of birth, if you will. You cannot (easily) change your sex or race, for example, but you can choose where you live, type of car, etc. Your driving record is, of course, also fair game.
That pesky ECJ with its sensible rulings.
You seriously think it is sensible that young men and young women have to pay the same for their car insurance when the statistics show that the former are much more likely to have an expensive crash than the latter?
No wonder you believe Remain is the correct option. Maths trumped by equality laws. Absolutely absurd.
Why stop at insurance, then? What about booze? Why shouldn't we make it more expensive for men to drink than women?
Are you are really so big a fool? How would you implement this policy ? Don't you think men would just get women to buy the booze?
Speaking from experience, men generally subsidise drinks for women, especially if you are wearing a push-up bra...
I haven't read his piece, but I think the case that the UK economy is uniquely vulnerable does have some merit. I call this the Triple Deficit problem.
Of all the major economies in the world, we run by far the biggest current account deficit (current account is like trade balance, plus a few other things, such as investment income / cost). This means that to pay our bills, we need to import capital from abroad. This can be achieved in a number of ways: we can issue debt that is bought by foreigners, or we can sell assets (like expensive London real estate or British businesses). In both cases, however, the impact is that you bring capital into the UK now, but you set up a long-term stream of payments out of the UK. It becomes, therefore, a long-term tax on the UK economy.
Furthermore, we still have one of the worst budget deficits of the major economies. This means that we have remarkably little flexibility should things go wrong.
Finally, UK households are extremely indebted. Yes, yes, I know this is because house prices are so high in the UK. But this also brings with it fragility: imagine that UK housing moved down 25% in Sterling terms. (And I believe - and I realise I'm in a minority of one - that prime London could easily move 50%.)
The problem is a simple one: staying in the EU is likely to exacerbate these issues over time. Leaving the EU is likely to result in them being solved in an extremely painful and abrupt manner.
RCS- it's not the one off shock that worries me- that is bad enough. It is the years of uncertainty that will lead to a sustained flow of capital away from the the UK. My wife works across the pharma sector, one of the UK's success stories. Her employer has written to staff advising them to vote remain.
Post Brexit it is not a risk that the pharma industry will invest outside the UK. It is a fact.
I cannot actually believe that a major part of the Tory party, the so called party of business, could support something that was catastrophic for capitalism.
When Labour get's its act together, they need to exploit the Tory party feckless, cavalier attitude to our economy.
The Hilton Intervention could really resonate. Immigration is THE issue of the campaign, Cameron has repeatedly been accused of being a fool over his immigration targets. Now we have Hilton, Cameron's original guru, telling us that Cameron knew the target was nonsense and he's be lying to us all about it for years and years.
Except immigration was dropping at the time Hilton is talking about, so he is being less than truthful in that case
@politicshome: Boris Johnson on Nigel Farage's campaign: "I don’t like some of the xenophobic undertones." But says "insulting" not to discuss immigration.
Boris says it was xenophobic. Cue outrage from the Brexiteers...
@chrislockwd: Sorry to again hear Hilton and Gove putting immigration front and centre of Leave today. They do sound awfully like Farage.
Does that mean that REMAIN must win? What does another twitt from The Economist mag's staff add to the sum of human knowledge when they are all rabid europhiles?
Gove is a repulsive little toad who would quite happily roast his children alive if it furthered his vanity project.
Steve Hilton- he of the Big Society. I don't know what Cameron did to him to induce this monumental betrayal in their personal friendship. Can anyone guess?
I guess we place you in the "never kissed a tory" category?
This is supposedly a betting site, I posted a couple of weeks ago that with the exception of a handful very few on here have the foggiest understanding of betting. In the chart at the top Leave are ahead in 9 of 16 polls yet can be backed at 3/1. I've no idea what the outcome will be but anybody backing Remain at around 1/4 is a guesser.
They may well collect but backing 1/4 shots on the toss of a coin is the road to certain ruin.
Remain are a similar price to Germany beating N.Ireland tonight.
A point on this Curtice chap and 40/45%, does he think that is what Leave will get in terms of % votes or does he think that is the probability of Leave winning? Plenty don't understand the difference, perhaps he doesn't.
Yes, they may have been ahead in 9 of the 16 most recent polls, but only in 1 of the 4 most recent. That may somewhat explain the odds. Then you have to believe the polls are accurate, or that there won't be a swing to Remain on the day.
Oh, and I'm sure he knows the difference between probability of winning, and percentage share of vote.
At every point, the betting markets have overreacted to good news for Remain, and under reacted to good news for Leave. If the polls are correct, it's still very tight, whereas betting markets are implying a Remain lead of 55/45 or so.
That's not far away from the Curtice poll last night. But I do think Remain have some serious catching up to do: postal votes are heavily Leave, I should think.
Yes, every one thinks this, including me. However there is absolutely no factual evidence to back this up. Be aware of accepting widely held opinion as fact.
In terms of where the market are it, it's hard to marry it with polling. i suspect it's becoming quite disconnected with the fundamentals, it's of a size where the sheer weight of money already in the market is driving things. People attempting to cover positions or minimise loses. Perhaps even some profit taking.
At some point, people attempt to buy "free money" by backing a short priced favourite driving it way below value. As the price plummets, others rush in thinking there much be reasons behind it. Typical betfair "mug rush" behaviour to be avoided at any cost.
Postal votes will be heavily Leave because of the large number of older voters. The question is how many postal voters would change their minds later, assuming most of them voted during the period of maximum Leave? Are postal voters flightier or more determined than voters in person?
I had a postal vote and I've been leave since 1975
I haven't read his piece, but I think the case that the UK economy is uniquely vulnerable does have some merit. I call this the Triple Deficit problem.
Of all the major economies in the world, we run by far the biggest current account deficit (current account is like trade balance, plus a few other things, such as investment income / cost). This means that to pay our bills, we need to import capital from abroad. This can be achieved in a number of ways: we can issue debt that is bought by foreigners, or we can sell assets (like expensive London real estate or British businesses). In both cases, however, the impact is that you bring capital into the UK now, but you set up a long-term stream of payments out of the UK. It becomes, therefore, a long-term tax on the UK economy.
Furthermore, we still have one of the worst budget deficits of the major economies. This means that we have remarkably little flexibility should things go wrong.
Finally, UK households are extremely indebted. Yes, yes, I know this is because house prices are so high in the UK. But this also brings with it fragility: imagine that UK housing moved down 25% in Sterling terms. (And I believe - and I realise I'm in a minority of one - that prime London could easily move 50%.)
The problem is a simple one: staying in the EU is likely to exacerbate these issues over time. Leaving the EU is likely to result in them being solved in an extremely painful and abrupt manner.
Addressing that means addressing the 'spend,me, now' culture. We are living greatly beyond our means, borrowing from the future and selling off the past, as well as spending today's income. Putting things back on a stable footing will mean addressing that mentality as much as the finances.
@chrislockwd: Sorry to again hear Hilton and Gove putting immigration front and centre of Leave today. They do sound awfully like Farage.
Does that mean that REMAIN must win? What does another twitt from The Economist mag's staff add to the sum of human knowledge when they are all rabid europhiles?
Gove is a repulsive little toad who would quite happily roast his children alive if it furthered his vanity project.
Steve Hilton- he of the Big Society. I don't know what Cameron did to him to induce this monumental betrayal in their personal friendship. Can anyone guess?
I guess we place you in the "never kissed a tory" category?
I certainly wouldn't like to put my tongue anywhere Gove's.
On a serious point though, this referendum has shown me that there is very little difference between the mainstream parties. I am probably more relaxed about Tories (those of the Cameron, Osborne and Greening type) than I have ever been.
Britain doesn't do extremes. It will no more vote Brexit than it would Corbyn.
Finally, UK households are extremely indebted. Yes, yes, I know this is because house prices are so high in the UK. But this also brings with it fragility: imagine that UK housing moved down 25% in Sterling terms. (And I believe - and I realise I'm in a minority of one - that prime London could easily move 50%.)
The Hilton Intervention could really resonate. Immigration is THE issue of the campaign, Cameron has repeatedly been accused of being a fool over his immigration targets. Now we have Hilton, Cameron's original guru, telling us that Cameron knew the target was nonsense and he's be lying to us all about it for years and years.
Actually, Hilton hasn't said that. He's said that Cameron's advisors thought that the target was nonsense (or unachievable). He hasn't said that Cameron agreed with them.
I haven't read his piece, but I think the case that the UK economy is uniquely vulnerable does have some merit. I call this the Triple Deficit problem.
Of all the major economies in the world, we run by far the biggest current account deficit (current account is like trade balance, plus a few other things, such as investment income / cost). This means that to pay our bills, we need to import capital from abroad. This can be achieved in a number of ways: we can issue debt that is bought by foreigners, or we can sell assets (like expensive London real estate or British businesses). In both cases, however, the impact is that you bring capital into the UK now, but you set up a long-term stream of payments out of the UK. It becomes, therefore, a long-term tax on the UK economy.
Furthermore, we still have one of the worst budget deficits of the major economies. This means that we have remarkably little flexibility should things go wrong.
Finally, UK households are extremely indebted. Yes, yes, I know this is because house prices are so high in the UK. But this also brings with it fragility: imagine that UK housing moved down 25% in Sterling terms. (And I believe - and I realise I'm in a minority of one - that prime London could easily move 50%.)
The problem is a simple one: staying in the EU is likely to exacerbate these issues over time. Leaving the EU is likely to result in them being solved in an extremely painful and abrupt manner.
Addressing that means addressing the 'spend,me, now' culture. We are living greatly beyond our means, borrowing from the future and selling off the past, as well as spending today's income. Putting things back on a stable footing will mean addressing that mentality as much as the finances.
I agree.
British politics is infantalised by the EU. We refuse to discuss the most important issues because EU.
(His replacement) . "The only senior politician who has not been compromised by the corners cut by both sides; the only one not to have accused colleagues of lying (directly or indirectly), the only one to have struck a balance between leadership ambition and political principle – in short, Theresa May."
How long after that do we get self driving cars with ultra low insurance?
Within 20 years, you'll be getting a huge insurance uplift for wanting to drive your own car. And with a clause in the policy saying that insurance is invalidated if the black box records you were speeding at the time of the accident.
The days of motoring as a thing you can do for fun are numbered.
On the upside, it will kill the need to worry about speed cameras.
Yes. Expect to see a rise in the number of circuits and private roads like the Nurburgring, several of which have already sprung up in the US. They will be the only place a man can drive his old fashioned human-operated car in a couple of decades' time.
Hopefully they can turn everything north of Glasgow/Edinburgh into a private road!
"Although the official figures are not in yet, SLDC believe that the electorate to be around 82,000 in the South Lakeland voting area - not too dissimilar to the figures for the General Election.
However, SLDC have seen an increase in the number of postal voters, with more than 20,000 registering to vote via post. This was an increase of about 2,500 on their 'normal' level."
Don't misunderestimate Ozzy. 16 months ago when it looked like Ozzy was about to be turfed out of the Treasury, England & Wales rose up and gave the Tories a majority.
The Hilton Intervention could really resonate. Immigration is THE issue of the campaign, Cameron has repeatedly been accused of being a fool over his immigration targets. Now we have Hilton, Cameron's original guru, telling us that Cameron knew the target was nonsense and he's be lying to us all about it for years and years.
Actually, Hilton hasn't said that. He's said that Cameron's advisors thought that the target was nonsense (or unachievable). He hasn't said that Cameron agreed with them.
Cameron has spent years claiming to be the friend of people concerned about immigration - cut it to the tens of thousands he said. His government has maintained the pretence that this pledge means they are actually doing something even as immigration rose.
And all the time he knew that the pledge was a lie, having been told "Directly and explicitly" that the pledge would fail. The real damage to Cameron is from the senior Tories in the leave camp calling him a liar. And he is a liar. On a red rag subject.
The Hilton Intervention could really resonate. Immigration is THE issue of the campaign, Cameron has repeatedly been accused of being a fool over his immigration targets. Now we have Hilton, Cameron's original guru, telling us that Cameron knew the target was nonsense and he's be lying to us all about it for years and years.
Key is that immigration was top of the news this morning. Not what REMAIN would want.
Another maybe more important point is that postal votes in the bag are presumably locked in for the opinion poll. Poll results reflect votes that have already taken place. If a poll asks you, how will you vote on the EU, would you say anything different from what you have actually voted, even if you are now having cold feet?
The Hilton Intervention could really resonate. Immigration is THE issue of the campaign, Cameron has repeatedly been accused of being a fool over his immigration targets. Now we have Hilton, Cameron's original guru, telling us that Cameron knew the target was nonsense and he's be lying to us all about it for years and years.
Actually, Hilton hasn't said that. He's said that Cameron's advisors thought that the target was nonsense (or unachievable). He hasn't said that Cameron agreed with them.
Cameron has spent years claiming to be the friend of people concerned about immigration - cut it to the tens of thousands he said. His government has maintained the pretence that this pledge means they are actually doing something even as immigration rose.
And all the time he knew that the pledge was a lie, having been told "Directly and explicitly" that the pledge would fail. The real damage to Cameron is from the senior Tories in the leave camp calling him a liar. And he is a liar. On a red rag subject.
Not a liar just a person who ignored advice and thought that his Govt was working hard on achieving it as best they could and that something would turn up... He specifically relied on Osborne to support the policy, something Osborne failed to do and no real crack down on immigration happened through enforcing every rule and spending money on border police and systems. The irony is that it will be Osborne's political career that will suffer the most through his decisions.
Now things have calmed down a bit since the weekend, I can see no reason to amend my assessment that Leave is on course for a win. Nevertheless, embarrassed by and ashamed of Farage's poster, and not wishing to abandon the centre-ground, I can see Gove and Boris striking a more conciliatory tone once the result is in. Concessions will be given to the pro-europeans, probably in relation to freedom of movement. Boris will want to do everything in his power extricate himself from the company of the nasties. Meanwhile, Cameron and Osborne can exit the stage with their heads held high, safe in the knowledge that 'it matters not who won or lost but how you played the game'.
I haven't read his piece, but I think the case that the UK economy is uniquely vulnerable does have some merit. I call this the Triple Deficit problem.
Of all the major economies in the world, we run by far the biggest current account deficit (current account is like trade balance, plus a few other things, such as investment income / cost). This means that to pay our bills, we need to import capital from abroad. This can be achieved in a number of ways: we can issue debt that is bought by foreigners, or we can sell assets (like expensive London real estate or British businesses). In both cases, however, the impact is that you bring capital into the UK now, but you set up a long-term stream of payments out of the UK. It becomes, therefore, a long-term tax on the UK economy.
Furthermore, we still have one of the worst budget deficits of the major economies. This means that we have remarkably little flexibility should things go wrong.
Finally, UK households are extremely indebted. Yes, yes, I know this is because house prices are so high in the UK. But this also brings with it fragility: imagine that UK housing moved down 25% in Sterling terms. (And I believe - and I realise I'm in a minority of one - that prime London could easily move 50%.)
The problem is a simple one: staying in the EU is likely to exacerbate these issues over time. Leaving the EU is likely to result in them being solved in an extremely painful and abrupt manner.
Addressing that means addressing the 'spend,me, now' culture. We are living greatly beyond our means, borrowing from the future and selling off the past, as well as spending today's income. Putting things back on a stable footing will mean addressing that mentality as much as the finances.
So that is basically about morality and virtue rather than economics then.
Finally, UK households are extremely indebted. Yes, yes, I know this is because house prices are so high in the UK. But this also brings with it fragility: imagine that UK housing moved down 25% in Sterling terms. (And I believe - and I realise I'm in a minority of one - that prime London could easily move 50%.)
The Hilton Intervention could really resonate. Immigration is THE issue of the campaign, Cameron has repeatedly been accused of being a fool over his immigration targets. Now we have Hilton, Cameron's original guru, telling us that Cameron knew the target was nonsense and he's be lying to us all about it for years and years.
Actually, Hilton hasn't said that. He's said that Cameron's advisors thought that the target was nonsense (or unachievable). He hasn't said that Cameron agreed with them.
Cameron has spent years claiming to be the friend of people concerned about immigration - cut it to the tens of thousands he said. His government has maintained the pretence that this pledge means they are actually doing something even as immigration rose.
And all the time he knew that the pledge was a lie, having been told "Directly and explicitly" that the pledge would fail. The real damage to Cameron is from the senior Tories in the leave camp calling him a liar. And he is a liar. On a red rag subject.
Agree with that. But Gove and others are making the same pledge for Brexit. Which is no less dishonest, is the here and now and is the (false) prospectus on which this referendum turns. The lie is therefore more consequential this time.
The Kent Messaenger polled the 17 Kent seats. Most inclined to Brexit were Sittingbourne and Sheppey with 62% Out followed by Thanet North at 58% and Chatham & Aylesford at 57%. Most Remain friendly were the three wealthiest constituencies in the county ie Tunbridge Wells at 55% In , Sevenoaks at 54% and Tonbridge & Malling at 50%.
Cameron has spent years claiming to be the friend of people concerned about immigration - cut it to the tens of thousands he said. His government has maintained the pretence that this pledge means they are actually doing something even as immigration rose.
And all the time he knew that the pledge was a lie, having been told "Directly and explicitly" that the pledge would fail. The real damage to Cameron is from the senior Tories in the leave camp calling him a liar. And he is a liar. On a red rag subject.
Not a liar just a person who ignored advice and thought that his Govt was working hard on achieving it as best they could and that something would turn up... He specifically relied on Osborne to support the policy, something Osborne failed to do and no real crack down on immigration happened through enforcing every rule and spending money on border police and systems. The irony is that it will be Osborne's political career that will suffer the most through his decisions.
Its a simple truth that you cannot control the free movement of people inside a European Union that enshrines the free movement of people. I think Farage is an egotistical oaf but the one thing he says that I find simple and truthful is what he says on this subject.
Two scenarios for Cameron. He knew he couldn't cut migration numbers and decided to lie about it. Or he genuinely believed he could and therefore is grossly incompetent.
Steve Hilton- he of the Big Society. I don't know what Cameron did to him to induce this monumental betrayal in their personal friendship. Can anyone guess?
Isn't there a backstory about the Camerons and Hilton's wife? Rachel Whetstone, now Mrs Hilton, had an affair with SamCam's step-father. When it came out there was a massive falling out between the Camerons and Whetstone.
According to a Guardian focus group carried out last week, they had reported that voters were put off by Obama or other 'Expert' types, but would be more receptive to people such as David Attenborough or David Beckham (this presumably means respected celebrities who don't typically opine on politics - not 'luvvie' types).
Is there a chance Beckham could help swing a small number of undecideds? seems unlikely, but he has at least given positive reasons to remain.
I presume Attenborough is for remain, and is probably one of the most respected celebs in the UK. I wouldn't be surprised if Remain are keeping him to announce for Remain tomorrow.
David Beckham is for Remain. Right well then that is it, he has spoken, Remain will win!!!!!
Yes super rich millionaire who doesnt have to deal with wage suppression, stretched local services, & migration pressures, telling us to remain so he can continue to enjoy his lavish lifestyle - hypocrite
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Cameron has spent years claiming to be the friend of people concerned about immigration - cut it to the tens of thousands he said. His government has maintained the pretence that this pledge means they are actually doing something even as immigration rose.
And all the time he knew that the pledge was a lie, having been told "Directly and explicitly" that the pledge would fail. The real damage to Cameron is from the senior Tories in the leave camp calling him a liar. And he is a liar. On a red rag subject.
Not a liar just a person who ignored advice and thought that his Govt was working hard on achieving it as best they could and that something would turn up... He specifically relied on Osborne to support the policy, something Osborne failed to do and no real crack down on immigration happened through enforcing every rule and spending money on border police and systems. The irony is that it will be Osborne's political career that will suffer the most through his decisions.
Its a simple truth that you cannot control the free movement of people inside a European Union that enshrines the free movement of people. I think Farage is an egotistical oaf but the one thing he says that I find simple and truthful is what he says on this subject. Two scenarios for Cameron. He knew he couldn't cut migration numbers and decided to lie about it. Or he genuinely believed he could and therefore is grossly incompetent.
What we know about Cameron is that he is not a details person and that he prefers to delegate. In that way of operating he also relies on a small group around him and has since GE2015 appointed Osborne as effectively his chief operating officer, above everyone else in cabinet. Up to GE2015 the Lib Dems would have been the excuse for no crackdown on immigration but since they left there is no excuse politically (except the EU). What is strange is that if Osborne is the political strategic genius that 2% think he is, why has Osborne not driven the govt agenda to crack down on immigration over the past 12 months since the GE? The answer is that he preferred not to and ignored Cameron's election promise. Another example of that is Cameron's promise to giving marriage a tax advantage which Osborne only belatedly implemented with a tiny few hundred pounds gain.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
(His replacement) . "The only senior politician who has not been compromised by the corners cut by both sides; the only one not to have accused colleagues of lying (directly or indirectly), the only one to have struck a balance between leadership ambition and political principle – in short, Theresa May."
Gove spoke approvingly of May on Sky earlier - it was just a sentence or two, but it stood out.
Steve Hilton- he of the Big Society. I don't know what Cameron did to him to induce this monumental betrayal in their personal friendship. Can anyone guess?
Isn't there a backstory about the Camerons and Hilton's wife? Rachel Whetstone, now Mrs Hilton, had an affair with SamCam's father-in-law. When it came out there was a massive falling out between the Camerons and Whetstone.
Whatever it is, the Hilton thing is deeply, deeply personal.
Just one comment on Turnout. Postal ballot returns are running higher than GE levels by all accounts I hear. But don't automatically assume that this reflects the population as a whole. Maybe it does, or maybe it reflects the fact that for certain demographics this is a very very important issue, for others there's a shrug of the shoulders and back to football. This is fascinating because I can't remember a time we have a had 'old' people and lower social classes up against the young and the higher social classes. I would guess that postal ballots probably oversample the old.......
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
You might have missed this, but we won't have left by next week.
The Kent Messaenger polled the 17 Kent seats. Most inclined to Brexit were Sittingbourne and Sheppey with 62% Out followed by Thanet North at 58% and Chatham & Aylesford at 57%. Most Remain friendly were the three wealthiest constituencies in the county ie Tunbridge Wells at 55% In , Sevenoaks at 54% and Tonbridge & Malling at 50%.
I don't think the sample size can tell us anything reliable about voting by constituency. Kent voting 57/43 Leave is certainly plausible, though.
Question for the enlightened. I have a bottle of 2012 HoC Claret signed by DC - a foolish charity auction purchase a few years ago - is it any good?
If half palatable, I might have to open it on Friday lunchtime to celebrate/cheer myself up....
The signed champagne I got from Dave was very good according to my friends.
I'm sure the claret will be similarly good.
Easy answer. Drink it at a dinner party or when friends are around (2012 should be perfectly nice). Keep the bottle.
Then at every single gathering, drinks party, dinner, etc afterwards and forever, fill the bottle up with Sainsbury's plonk (or Lafite '45) and have the bottle out prominently on the table in front of your friends.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Three parts to the sentence:
- George Osborne will call - An emergency budget - to raise taxes
There might be an emergency budget, but no Tory will raise income taxes, and it CERTAINLY won't be Osborne, who will be on the backbenches by then.
David Beckham is for Remain. Right well then that is it, he has spoken, Remain will win!!!!!
Yes super rich millionaire who doesnt have to deal with wage suppression, stretched local services, & migration pressures, telling us to remain so he can continue to enjoy his lavish lifestyle - hypocrite
Why is that hypocritical? You can argue he's biased because of his situation, but I don't see what is hypocritical about his statement?
For my own piece of mind I am determined not to get into arguments with leavers as I know they are passionate about their desire to leave. I am fortunate that as a eurosceptic as furious with Junckers et al as any leaver, I am in the position that I genuinely believe at this time we should remain but if leave win, well that is the result and the Country must come together to work hard to ensure it is a success. However, I can imagine that many, possible the vast majority, of labour MP's will be devastated and any problems the Conservatives may or may not have will pale into insignificance with the wailing and gnashing of teeth of labour that will follow
Steve Hilton- he of the Big Society. I don't know what Cameron did to him to induce this monumental betrayal in their personal friendship. Can anyone guess?
Isn't there a backstory about the Camerons and Hilton's wife? Rachel Whetstone, now Mrs Hilton, had an affair with SamCam's step-father. When it came out there was a massive falling out between the Camerons and Whetstone.
Yes but that happened before Hilton was in Govt I believe.
Steve Hilton- he of the Big Society. I don't know what Cameron did to him to induce this monumental betrayal in their personal friendship. Can anyone guess?
Isn't there a backstory about the Camerons and Hilton's wife? Rachel Whetstone, now Mrs Hilton, had an affair with SamCam's father-in-law. When it came out there was a massive falling out between the Camerons and Whetstone.
Whatever it is, the Hilton thing is deeply, deeply personal.
Sorry. It was step-father, not father-in-law. I've now corrected my original quote.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
You might have missed this, but we won't have left by next week.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
How would people feel if car insurance could be priced differentially on the ground of race?
Surely insurance rates should be based on actuarial and claims data? It's not discrimination if it's done on the basis of evidence, which is why the ruling on sex discrimination makes no sense.
Statistics are not individuals. There is nothing innate about age, race or sex that makes a middle aged white female driver automatically a lower risk than a young black male driver. Why should insurers be able to discriminate on such grounds when the rest of us can't?
Because the entire concept of insurance is about risk pooling. If you could accurately price to an individual level then insurance companies would only get to insure the lemons.
Question for the enlightened. I have a bottle of 2012 HoC Claret signed by DC - a foolish charity auction purchase a few years ago - is it any good?
If half palatable, I might have to open it on Friday lunchtime to celebrate/cheer myself up....
The signed champagne I got from Dave was very good according to my friends.
I'm sure the claret will be similarly good.
Easy answer. Drink it at a dinner party or when friends are around (2012 should be perfectly nice). Keep the bottle.
Then at every single gathering, drinks party, dinner, etc afterwards and forever, fill the bottle up with Sainsbury's plonk (or Lafite '45) and have the bottle out prominently on the table in front of your friends.
(His replacement) . "The only senior politician who has not been compromised by the corners cut by both sides; the only one not to have accused colleagues of lying (directly or indirectly), the only one to have struck a balance between leadership ambition and political principle – in short, Theresa May."
Gove spoke approvingly of May on Sky earlier - it was just a sentence or two, but it stood out.
Osborne is history as far as I am concerned, and even as a remainer I would like to see Gove as Chancellor
Steve Hilton- he of the Big Society. I don't know what Cameron did to him to induce this monumental betrayal in their personal friendship. Can anyone guess?
Isn't there a backstory about the Camerons and Hilton's wife? Rachel Whetstone, now Mrs Hilton, had an affair with SamCam's step-father. When it came out there was a massive falling out between the Camerons and Whetstone.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say examined relevant papers and no record of PM being warned cd not get migration down to tens of thousands
People keep saying the campaign is squalid and full of lies, and try to tar both camps with the same brush.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
That George Osborne will call an emergency budget immediately after a Brexit vote to raise taxes.
Sorry, given there will be an economic shock, and the public finances change, Osborne would have to produce a revised budget to take into account a post Breix economy.
Next....
Each household to lose £4,300 per annum if we vote Leave.
I know that is a lie. The likely figure is much higher. Just consider a 10% house price reduction, a 10% reduction in the footsie, a 10% devaluation in sterling..
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
What do I lose if the price of my house falls by 10%? I get just as much utility out of my house if the price is 90% of its current value, as I do if its price is 110% of its current value.
The Kent Messaenger polled the 17 Kent seats. Most inclined to Brexit were Sittingbourne and Sheppey with 62% Out followed by Thanet North at 58% and Chatham & Aylesford at 57%. Most Remain friendly were the three wealthiest constituencies in the county ie Tunbridge Wells at 55% In , Sevenoaks at 54% and Tonbridge & Malling at 50%.
I don't think the sample size can tell us anything reliable about voting by constituency. Kent voting 57/43 Leave is certainly plausible, though.
Yes the overall figure for Kent was 57/43 based on a small sample of 793. Agreed re constituencies although these figures do correlate quite well with info on the ground.
The Kent Messaenger polled the 17 Kent seats. Most inclined to Brexit were Sittingbourne and Sheppey with 62% Out followed by Thanet North at 58% and Chatham & Aylesford at 57%. Most Remain friendly were the three wealthiest constituencies in the county ie Tunbridge Wells at 55% In , Sevenoaks at 54% and Tonbridge & Malling at 50%.
Comments
I am sure I read here some months ago about there being no provision for a national recount. Can anyone confirm that is still the case, and if adequate security measures are in place to keep the ballot papers locked away in the event of a legal challenge?
Post Brexit it is not a risk that the pharma industry will invest outside the UK. It is a fact.
I cannot actually believe that a major part of the Tory party, the so called party of business, could support something that was catastrophic for capitalism.
When Labour get's its act together, they need to exploit the Tory party feckless, cavalier attitude to our economy.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/ken-seeks-a-mein-kampf-8ch3m8tqp
There's also a great irony here that Lidl and Aldi customers favour Brexit here
http://www.verdictretail.com/ahead-of-eu-referendum-verdict-study-finds-tesco-shoppers-are-most-likely-to-vote-remain-and-sainsburys-shoppers-favour-brexit/
On a serious point though, this referendum has shown me that there is very little difference between the mainstream parties. I am probably more relaxed about Tories (those of the Cameron, Osborne and Greening type) than I have ever been.
Britain doesn't do extremes. It will no more vote Brexit than it would Corbyn.
'Michael Gove will quit if we vote Remain'
British politics is infantalised by the EU. We refuse to discuss the most important issues because EU.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2016/06/after-the-referendum-if-britain-doesnt-get-a-new-chancellor-it-faces-the-prospect-of-a-zombie-government.html
(His replacement) . "The only senior politician who has not been compromised by the corners cut by both sides; the only one not to have accused colleagues of lying (directly or indirectly), the only one to have struck a balance between leadership ambition and political principle – in short, Theresa May."
https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/745178697523617792
Tim Farron's patch.
All Remain
And all the time he knew that the pledge was a lie, having been told "Directly and explicitly" that the pledge would fail. The real damage to Cameron is from the senior Tories in the leave camp calling him a liar. And he is a liar. On a red rag subject.
https://twitter.com/RedHotSquirrel/status/744875603330011136
Still - it helps fund this site.
@BBCNormanS: Govt sources say in 2012 Home Office officials told PM "perfectly achievable" to meet immigration pledge
Another maybe more important point is that postal votes in the bag are presumably locked in for the opinion poll. Poll results reflect votes that have already taken place. If a poll asks you, how will you vote on the EU, would you say anything different from what you have actually voted, even if you are now having cold feet?
I think the simple consensus view is right: discussion of migration helps Leave. Discussion of economy helps Remain.
Can people please tell me one lie the remain camp has said.
YouGov - Only 11% say they Trust George Osborne on EU matters, The lowest figure for any politician polled at any point.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/21/yougov-referendum-model/
http://tinyurl.com/pjh5cwc
Cameron is quite economical with the truth about what rights EU migrants have to claim benefits.
Two scenarios for Cameron. He knew he couldn't cut migration numbers and decided to lie about it. Or he genuinely believed he could and therefore is grossly incompetent.
If half palatable, I might have to open it on Friday lunchtime to celebrate/cheer myself up....
I'm sure the claret will be similarly good.
'chrislockwd: Sorry to again hear Hilton and Gove putting immigration front and centre of Leave today. They do sound awfully like Farage.'
That's a great way to try and close the conversation down,fortunately it's not working.
Can Remain tell us what their immigration policy is.......
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/forgers-fix-eu-passports-for-brazil-s-poor-r0q3ln39z
Is there a chance Beckham could help swing a small number of undecideds? seems unlikely, but he has at least given positive reasons to remain.
I presume Attenborough is for remain, and is probably one of the most respected celebs in the UK. I wouldn't be surprised if Remain are keeping him to announce for Remain tomorrow.
Next....
Strange.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/20/i-thought-i-was-going-to-die-reveals-sir-cliff-richard-in-first/
I prefer the term 'incentive based decision making'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36573766
Then at every single gathering, drinks party, dinner, etc afterwards and forever, fill the bottle up with Sainsbury's plonk (or Lafite '45) and have the bottle out prominently on the table in front of your friends.
- George Osborne will call
- An emergency budget
- to raise taxes
There might be an emergency budget, but no Tory will raise income taxes, and it CERTAINLY won't be Osborne, who will be on the backbenches by then.
They've not had a good few years.
The average family asset value in the UK is about 150k or so- so 15k is closer to the mark.
Next......
Thanks TSE for the info re: champers, too!
Very courageous.