I have to say that the one asset that is highly likely to become more... ahhh... affordable post Brexit is London property.
...
I'm glad you think it's good that this insanity has the potential to plunge London families like mine into negative equity. I have been close to tears at times worried about my family's livelihood.
SNIP.
SNIP.
SNIP
Oh, and my livelihood depends on not making the wrong calls about buying assets. I have a bit of experience....
SNIP
Oh and well done with the job.
Emotional investment makes it hard to be rational. It is why houses should not be considered as investments, but homes.
If the mortgage was affordable in positive equity, it will be affordable in negative equity barring external changes.
Negative equity is one of those irregular verb situations isnt it. I made a sensible property choice (when prices go up), he makes a fortune in flipping his homes, they screwed us by crashing the economy.
Negative impacts can be rooted in causes closer to home - including over stretching, failing to take out adequate mortgage protection insurance etc.
SNIP
Oh and is it not possible that Brexit could bring about external changes through job losses, wage cuts and so on. I don't know if that's so...but here's the rub..nor do you.
SNIP
And as soon as they got one, you'd be gleefully willing down their asset value, telling them how their being pushed into negative equity would be good for the people in the situation they used to be in.
Emotions getting in the way, again. Buying on a bubble is heartbreaking, lord knows I've done it many times - but heartbreak is irrational. Cold, hard, market asset valuations are not.
Where did I say I bought on the bubble ?
I bought my most recent property three years ago and my house had grown considerably in value since then. I either.
I was talking to someone who has put their house on the market today. They were shocked at the valuation and wouldn't mind it going down so younger people can afford houses,bBut that's just selfish Tories for you.
They can, of course, set the price at whatever they wish. They don't have to sell at the valuation level.
A working class northern Labour voter is shown three doors. Behind one is a restriction on immigration, behind the other two are City bankers warning about the stock market crashing.
He picks door one, the host opens door two to reveal a wide boy Southern softie crying because his bonus is down 20% this year.
I'm moving to the north as I can't cope with living costs down south anymore, I've had my house valued and it will be on the market some time in.July. I have to move as I can't afford to leave it any longer, if I can't sell it for the asking price my retirement is going to suffer, if I can't sell it things would be even worse. I'm finding it difficult to sleep at the moment. I'm afraid I look at those voting on the off chance that house prices will come down as a result with disgust. I've struggled for years to pay for something that their greed could destroy.
What is their greed?
Wanting to profit from creating conditions that hurt others just for their own profit. There are laudable reasons for voting but that is vile.
Wanting to be able to afford a home is not greed. Under your logic anyone who does not want cheap housing is also greedy and vile because they too are "Wanting to profit from creating conditions that hurt others just for their own profit".
Sorry but there's a difference, You work hard then you buy what you can afford, this sort of freeloader attitude is typical of the old socialist view, looking down on hard working people who scrimp and save.
Stodge , the problem is that your view is not typical of nor shared by most of Leave supporters . For them xenophobia rules
Mark this is how you view the world, sadly though cracked glasses. Which of the LEAVE supporters on here disagree with Stodge's words? I agree with them in that posting. So we have something in common. Get over it!
Leave supporters on here are nowhere near typical of Leave supporters or voters in the country as a whole .
Does that hold true for remain supporters as well like you?
REMAIN are those striding princes that the infamous Sion Simon wrote about. "The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. " "But now is the light headed dance, the fretful mazurka, of an army that knows it can never arrive."
Leave will still win handsomely. The plummeting stock market won't make much difference: too many people for a variety of reasons are prepared to go for Leave and just see what happens. Nevertheless, I've certainly detected a sudden chill in the air.
Oh for heavens sake. Ive just looked at BbC news and Sky online. Both main pages nothung about it.
2% off the stock market is nothing unusual, there were far greater falls during chinas difficulties last summer almost every other day.
Anyone prepared to cede contdol of their country for fear of a few points off the stockmarket which will probably climb bwck by the week after next needs their head examined. The people of the UK are not stupid.
I know little about the specifics of what you are talking about as I don't live in London but a serious question.
How do you build affordable housing when a garage sells for more than a normal public sector worker can hope to afford? Short of building wendy houses I don't see how any developer can build affordable housing in the current London market. Hence the need for a serious downward readjustment in house prices in London.
London is not one market, it is hundreds. There are parts of London where you can still buy a flat for 100k. There are parts of London where a flat (without a bath) is 1.5m.
You mean those flats that are essentially one room and a piss pot? This is the thing that is killing the white working class, more than any other sector.
I don't mean to be rude, but I've shared a 450 sq foot flat with two other people. When I see images of "shocking" flats, with three people stuffed into two rooms, I think "I've been there and done that". Compared to places like Hong Kong, where the Chinese working class is still in happy abundance, 450 sq feet between three (adult) people is an abundance.
Sure but sharing with Goldman analysts doesn't count as they are always in the office not the flat
LOL! You are absolutely right
One of my flatmates was a Swedish guy who was an FA (financial analyst) in corporate finance at Goldman. I swear he never managed to spend more than about 30 hours in the flat in a week, he'd pull 18 hour days almost every day.
My other flatmate worked as a computer programmer, earned twice we what both did, and managed to spend more time in the pub that Andreas spent in the flat.
A working class northern Labour voter is shown three doors. Behind one is a restriction on immigration, behind the other two are City bankers warning about the stock market crashing.
He picks door one, the host opens door two to reveal a wide boy Southern softie crying because his bonus is down 20% this year.
Does he switch?
Let's hope this isn't the start of a new phase of novelty accounts....
Funny how Remainers like Tyson pretend the be following the exconomists while actually misrepresenting them. Very few have said there will be a "huge" shock the economy (Tyson's words) and none have said it will "wreck" or "trash" the economy (George Osborne et al.)
It is true most have said that the economy will be better off under Remain than Leave (based on dubious models which exclude the possibility that the eurozone goes wrong but that's another matter)
If people want to quote economists they should go the actual reports and quite the magnitude of effect that the likes of Oxford Economics state. When they do so, they may understand why it is Remain's campaign which is actually a travesty of expert opinion.
Stodge , the problem is that your view is not typical of nor shared by most of Leave supporters . For them xenophobia rules
Mark this is how you view the world, sadly though cracked glasses. Which of the LEAVE supporters on here disagree with Stodge's words? I agree with them in that posting. So we have something in common. Get over it!
Leave supporters on here are nowhere near typical of Leave supporters or voters in the country as a whole .
Does that hold true for remain supporters as well like you?
Of course!
People here are geeks interested in statistics, probability, railways, military history and occasionally politics. We are a pretty unrepresentative bunch of wierdos.
Just read a story on Politics Home that some Labour MP's are unhappy with Alan Johnson's lack of visibility/commitment in this campaign - well, it took a while, it's been staring them in the face for weeks. He's very overrated IMO.
Whilst I now agree that he is overrated, I can't help thinking that Corbyn has to bear some (most?) of the blame for the Labour party's poor participation
To be honest, I think Corbyn has played this right. He doesn't think membership of the EU is a big deal. Cameron has dug the most enormous booby-trapped hole for himself, and fallen in. Why should Corbyn go and haul him out ?
Stuart Rose puts his finger on the pulse of popular opinion once again:
Rose also urged voters to be as “selfish” as possible and vote to protect their finances as well as those of their children and grandchildren.
He said: “Nobody has ever left the EU. It’s a big social and economic experiment. At the end of the day, it’s like joining a golf club or a dining club, or any sort of club, a squash club. We may not like all the members, we may not like all the rules.
“We may not like the cost of teeing off or the cost of playing on a squash court. But we joined the club. And we’ve got more chance if we’re in the club of being elected to a committee or influencing the rules if we’re in the club.”
Drawing analogies with golf and squash clubs are clearly the best way of resonating with Labour Leave voters across the land.
I am sure his message will be resonating around the dining clubs of Burslem, Longton, Fenton, Hanley etc this evening...
Isabel Oakeshott tweeting 'rumour' that Tom Watson claims the postal votes in northern towns are a horror show for Remain.
Its the 2016 Holyrood 'SLab to the slaughter experience', if true.
Dint forget Tunstall and stoke itself! You did remember Fenton which is better than Arnold Bennett though!
Stodge , the problem is that your view is not typical of nor shared by most of Leave supporters . For them xenophobia rules
Mark this is how you view the world, sadly though cracked glasses. Which of the LEAVE supporters on here disagree with Stodge's words? I agree with them in that posting. So we have something in common. Get over it!
Leave supporters on here are nowhere near typical of Leave supporters or voters in the country as a whole .
Does that hold true for remain supporters as well like you?
Of course!
People here are geeks interested in statistics, probability, railways, military history and occasionally politics. We are a pretty unrepresentative bunch of wierdos.
Accusing others of being nasty is an easy way out, but it is never a good look. The bitterness of some Remainers (not you) is showing already, and yet it's all to play for. I suspect Remain will gain in the last couple of days owing to people's natural inclination for what they believe will be the status quo.
I retain hopes that Mr Hyde (Mr Meeks) will revert to Dr Jekyll come June 24th, whatever the result.
Despite Dave's rhetoric, the result won't be Armageddon whichever way it goes.
A working class northern Labour voter is shown three doors. Behind one is a restriction on immigration, behind the other two are City bankers warning about the stock market crashing.
He picks door one, the host opens door two to reveal a wide boy Southern softie crying because his bonus is down 20% this year.
Does he switch?
Let's hope this isn't the start of a new phase of novelty accounts....
Stodge , the problem is that your view is not typical of nor shared by most of Leave supporters . For them xenophobia rules
Mark this is how you view the world, sadly though cracked glasses. Which of the LEAVE supporters on here disagree with Stodge's words? I agree with them in that posting. So we have something in common. Get over it!
Leave supporters on here are nowhere near typical of Leave supporters or voters in the country as a whole .
Any evidence for that bullshit?
Well if you disagree and think there are plenty of xenophobic immigrant haters on here I will bow to your knowledge
People here are geeks interested in statistics, probability, railways, military history and occasionally politics. We are a pretty unrepresentative bunch of wierdos.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB No more published ICM polls. Last night's will be the last. Wonder if a private deal's been done. There's a lot city money flushing about
Stodge , the problem is that your view is not typical of nor shared by most of Leave supporters . For them xenophobia rules
Mark this is how you view the world, sadly though cracked glasses. Which of the LEAVE supporters on here disagree with Stodge's words? I agree with them in that posting. So we have something in common. Get over it!
Leave supporters on here are nowhere near typical of Leave supporters or voters in the country as a whole .
Does that hold true for remain supporters as well like you?
Of course!
People here are geeks interested in statistics, probability, railways, military history and occasionally politics. We are a pretty unrepresentative bunch of wierdos.
Stuart Rose puts his finger on the pulse of popular opinion once again:
Rose also urged voters to be as “selfish” as possible and vote to protect their finances as well as those of their children and grandchildren.
He said: “Nobody has ever left the EU. It’s a big social and economic experiment. At the end of the day, it’s like joining a golf club or a dining club, or any sort of club, a squash club. We may not like all the members, we may not like all the rules.
“We may not like the cost of teeing off or the cost of playing on a squash court. But we joined the club. And we’ve got more chance if we’re in the club of being elected to a committee or influencing the rules if we’re in the club.”
Drawing analogies with golf and squash clubs are clearly the best way of resonating with Labour Leave voters across the land.
I am sure his message will be resonating around the dining clubs of Burslem, Longton, Fenton, Hanley etc this evening...
Isabel Oakeshott tweeting 'rumour' that Tom Watson claims the postal votes in northern towns are a horror show for Remain.
Its the 2016 Holyrood 'SLab to the slaughter experience', if true.
Dint forget Tunstall and stoke itself! You did remember Fenton which is better than Arnold Bennett though!
Didnt forget them...suggesting a dining club in Tunstall is stretching believability.
Accusing others of being nasty is an easy way out, but it is never a good look. The bitterness of some Remainers (not you) is showing already, and yet it's all to play for. I suspect Remain will gain in the last couple of days owing to people's natural inclination for what they believe will be the status quo.
I retain hopes that Mr Hyde (Mr Meeks) will revert to Dr Jekyll come June 24th, whatever the result.
Despite Dave's rhetoric, the result won't be Armageddon whichever way it goes.
Remain must still be favourite to win, even now. Remainers should stiffen their upper lips and look toward brighter days. We're just enjoying our moment in the sun, soon to be as one with the Cybernats of yesteryear.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB No more published ICM polls. Last night's will be the last. Wonder if a private deal's been done. There's a lot city money flushing about
Has Richard Nabavi actually gone into meltdown? I picture him gently smouldering in a corner, and saying "wibble" and "near perfect chancellor", as he hugs a gonk.
It will be very amusing if Brexit happens, Cameron and Osborne stay in power and preside over a resurgent economy.
I was talking to someone who has put their house on the market today. They were shocked at the valuation and wouldn't mind it going down so younger people can afford houses,...
And then they put the house on the market at the valuation plus £10K...
Stodge , the problem is that your view is not typical of nor shared by most of Leave supporters . For them xenophobia rules
Mark this is how you view the world, sadly though cracked glasses. Which of the LEAVE supporters on here disagree with Stodge's words? I agree with them in that posting. So we have something in common. Get over it!
Leave supporters on here are nowhere near typical of Leave supporters or voters in the country as a whole .
Any evidence for that bullshit?
Well if you disagree and think there are plenty of xenophobic immigrant haters on here I will bow to your knowledge
No I disagree that the 'typical Leave supporter or voter in the country as a whole' is a "xenophobic immigrant hater". You have evidence for that bullshit?
Finally a thread where people are finally realising the implications of Brexit. There will be a huge shock to the economy, followed by years of uncertainty.
In your view.
No...not in my view. In the view of the IMF, our government, 85% of economists, bankers, industry, virtually everyone. In reposte the leave campaign have thrown the spectre that Turkey will imminently join the EU, that no-one backs up.
You are on the side my friend of racists who are stoking up fear of immigration to deliver an outcome that will be truly disastrous for our country, for your house value, for the NHS, for our Armed Forces, for our influence and role in the world.
No. You are on the side of the elite that have stuffed the poor across a continent. That have enriched themselves to an obscene extent by forming protected cliques of power and influence. I don't give a fig about Turkey.
You are on the side of the oppressor, those that will squeeze the last dime out of the poor, drive wages down and prices up.
The NHS isn't a disaster now? Brexit will not have a noticeable effect on it. Your faith in the vested interest is brave, in the Sir Humphry sense.
Yeah, right. Right wing Tories who have squeezed the poorest and most vulnerable, cut their services, increased their transport costs and overseen a drop in their standards of living will now ride to their rescue. Of course :-D
I have to say that the one asset that is highly likely to become more... ahhh... affordable post Brexit is London property.
An unparalleled amount of new supply coming, at a time when demand is dipping (both from EU and off-plan foreign investors).
Hong Kong property fell 60% in one 18 month stretch. I think something similar is entirely possible in London.
Which is good, because my wife would really like to upgrade.
I'm glad you think it's good that this insanity has the potential to plunge London families like mine into negative equity. I have been close to tears at times worried about my family's livelihood.
Asset price bubbles rarely end well. It sadly hurts some people - and that is why as a society we ameliorate that.
What about families who don't have a massive asset to live in? There is almost always someone worse off.
Don't be so patronising. There a plenty of people who have just bought their first home and so on. It isn't any sort of an asset if you're plunged into negative equity.....
Surely a house is first a home?
The laws of supply and demand will still apply.
House prices are too high, or do you think otherwise?
It might have escaped your notice there may have been other periods of time where negative equity occurred.
I had 2 friends badly affected - it may amaze people to learn that they kept their houses and they survived.
But this is only about project fear isn't it.
Give me positive reasons to stay.
It is amazing how those saying leavers are heartless and don't care about people but at the same time just ignore the life destroying mistakes made by the EU.
My comment had nothing to do with finding reasons to stay. I don't like the EU either. I do however like David Cameron. He is an election winner and has kept Labour out of power for several years. I am thus going to vote Remain as I wish to be loyal to him. I also dislike a lot of the right wing of the Tory party. So far so good?
If you had read the full exchange rather than picking out one random comment you would see that I was unhappy that somebodys genuine concerns were being addressed in what most people would consider to be an extremely heartless and patronising way. And so i said so.
I'm pleased your friends kept their homes. Genuinely. Not sure why it should have escaped my notice that there have been other periods of negative equity. Not sure that makes it a good thing though?
Presumably if the laws of supply and demand apply that's why prices are what they are?
I'm moving to the north as I can't cope with living costs down south anymore, I've had my house valued and it will be on the market some time in.July. I have to move as I can't afford to leave it any longer, if I can't sell it for the asking price my retirement is going to suffer, if I can't sell it things would be even worse. I'm finding it difficult to sleep at the moment. I'm afraid I look at those voting on the off chance that house prices will come down as a result with disgust. I've struggled for years to pay for something that their greed could destroy.
What is their greed?
Wanting to profit from creating conditions that hurt others just for their own profit. There are laudable reasons for voting but that is vile.
Wanting to be able to afford a home is not greed. Under your logic anyone who does not want cheap housing is also greedy and vile because they too are "Wanting to profit from creating conditions that hurt others just for their own profit".
Sorry but there's a difference, You work hard then you buy what you can afford, this sort of freeloader attitude is typical of the old socialist view, looking down on hard working people who scrimp and save.
Where is the freeloader? Prices have gone too high, so construction has increased, so prices go back down. That is called a capitalist free market.
Accusing others of being nasty is an easy way out, but it is never a good look. The bitterness of some Remainers (not you) is showing already, and yet it's all to play for. I suspect Remain will gain in the last couple of days owing to people's natural inclination for what they believe will be the status quo.
I retain hopes that Mr Hyde (Mr Meeks) will revert to Dr Jekyll come June 24th, whatever the result.
Despite Dave's rhetoric, the result won't be Armageddon whichever way it goes.
I will carry on calling it as I see it, before and after 23 June. I understand that Leavers don't like being tarred as monomaniacs, xenophobes, isolationists, dimwits, irrational optimists, useful idiots and wild-eyed nutjobs, but what am I supposed to do? Pretend that I think they are thinking logically and intelligently?
If I see people making a bad choice for bad reasons, I'm going to say so loud and clear.
If we vote Leave and things pan out as I expect, I shall wear out the I, T, O, L, D, Y, U and S keys on my keyboard as we drift into becoming a sour reactionary backwater. Doubtless erstwhile Leavers will consider that nasty too.
I'm moving to the north as I can't cope with living costs down south anymore, I've had my house valued and it will be on the market some time in.July. I have to move as I can't afford to leave it any longer, if I can't sell it for the asking price my retirement is going to suffer, if I can't sell it things would be even worse. I'm finding it difficult to sleep at the moment. I'm afraid I look at those voting on the off chance that house prices will come down as a result with disgust. I've struggled for years to pay for something that their greed could destroy.
What is their greed?
Wanting to profit from creating conditions that hurt others just for their own profit. There are laudable reasons for voting but that is vile.
Wanting to be able to afford a home is not greed. Under your logic anyone who does not want cheap housing is also greedy and vile because they too are "Wanting to profit from creating conditions that hurt others just for their own profit".
Sorry but there's a difference, You work hard then you buy what you can afford, this sort of freeloader attitude is typical of the old socialist view, looking down on hard working people who scrimp and save.
Where is the freeloader? Prices have gone too high, so construction has increased, so prices go back down. That is called a capitalist free market.
On the Economics of Brexit, Paul Krugman has done a concise piece that seems plausible. He reckons a 2% permanent drop in GDP due to greater trade restrictions is likely but talk of a huge financial crisis and a collapse in the pound is baloney.
What's more significant is the suggestion of how it will play out differently across the UK. His estimation is that London would be severely hit due to the city but other parts of the UK might benefit from a weaker pound.
I have to say I do worry somewhat about London. It's not that long ago we had the riots, it's not a homogeneous place and an economic shock is never good news.
Stuart Rose puts his finger on the pulse of popular opinion once again:
Rose also urged voters to be as “selfish” as possible and vote to protect their finances as well as those of their children and grandchildren.
He said: “Nobody has ever left the EU. It’s a big social and economic experiment. At the end of the day, it’s like joining a golf club or a dining club, or any sort of club, a squash club. We may not like all the members, we may not like all the rules.
“We may not like the cost of teeing off or the cost of playing on a squash court. But we joined the club. And we’ve got more chance if we’re in the club of being elected to a committee or influencing the rules if we’re in the club.”
Drawing analogies with golf and squash clubs are clearly the best way of resonating with Labour Leave voters across the land.
I am sure his message will be resonating around the dining clubs of Burslem, Longton, Fenton, Hanley etc this evening...
Isabel Oakeshott tweeting 'rumour' that Tom Watson claims the postal votes in northern towns are a horror show for Remain.
Its the 2016 Holyrood 'SLab to the slaughter experience', if true.
Dint forget Tunstall and stoke itself! You did remember Fenton which is better than Arnold Bennett though!
Didnt forget them...suggesting a dining club in Tunstall is stretching believability.
Lol. Yes I can't remember eating on Williamson street!
Accusing others of being nasty is an easy way out, but it is never a good look. The bitterness of some Remainers (not you) is showing already, and yet it's all to play for. I suspect Remain will gain in the last couple of days owing to people's natural inclination for what they believe will be the status quo.
I retain hopes that Mr Hyde (Mr Meeks) will revert to Dr Jekyll come June 24th, whatever the result.
Despite Dave's rhetoric, the result won't be Armageddon whichever way it goes.
I will carry on calling it as I see it, before and after 23 June. I understand that Leavers don't like being tarred as monomaniacs, xenophobes, isolationists, dimwits, irrational optimists, useful idiots and wild-eyed nutjobs, but what am I supposed to do? Pretend that I think they are thinking logically and intelligently?
If I see people making a bad choice for bad reasons, I'm going to say so loud and clear.
If we vote Leave and things pan out as I expect, I shall wear out the I, T, O, L, D, Y, U and S keys on my keyboard as we drift into becoming a sour reactionary backwater. Doubtless erstwhile Leavers will consider that nasty too.
Fair enough Alastair, but the wonder of the Internet is that people will just move onto other sites. I enjoy pb, I really do, but if I want to read bile I can do that just as easily on Reddit.
If Leave wins it doesn't mean that we suddenly become a national of bigots and xenophobes. We will still be a fair and tolerant society but will have the freedom to exhibit those qualities as a fully independent and democratic nation. Let's unite to take that opportunity.
I was talking to someone who has put their house on the market today. They were shocked at the valuation and wouldn't mind it going down so younger people can afford houses,...
And then they put the house on the market at the valuation plus £10K...
No, they put it on at the price and expect to sell it for a bit less.
Stuart Rose puts his finger on the pulse of popular opinion once again:
Rose also urged voters to be as “selfish” as possible and vote to protect their finances as well as those of their children and grandchildren.
He said: “Nobody has ever left the EU. It’s a big social and economic experiment. At the end of the day, it’s like joining a golf club or a dining club, or any sort of club, a squash club. We may not like all the members, we may not like all the rules.
“We may not like the cost of teeing off or the cost of playing on a squash court. But we joined the club. And we’ve got more chance if we’re in the club of being elected to a committee or influencing the rules if we’re in the club.”
Drawing analogies with golf and squash clubs are clearly the best way of resonating with Labour Leave voters across the land.
A true man of the people.
Don't forget the dining clubs.
Has anyone here ever been a member of a dining club ?
I used to be, in the decadent eighties. Many happy japes with my medical chums. We used to book tables under the name Frank Melaena and Party.
I don't recall shagging any pigs though.
Melaena - that's the word I've been trying to remember for 40-odd years!
A patient I came across in a hospital liked the sound of that word so much, she named her daughter after it.
Accusing others of being nasty is an easy way out, but it is never a good look. The bitterness of some Remainers (not you) is showing already, and yet it's all to play for. I suspect Remain will gain in the last couple of days owing to people's natural inclination for what they believe will be the status quo.
I retain hopes that Mr Hyde (Mr Meeks) will revert to Dr Jekyll come June 24th, whatever the result.
Despite Dave's rhetoric, the result won't be Armageddon whichever way it goes.
I will carry on calling it as I see it, before and after 23 June. I understand that Leavers don't like being tarred as monomaniacs, xenophobes, isolationists, dimwits, irrational optimists, useful idiots and wild-eyed nutjobs, but what am I supposed to do? Pretend that I think they are thinking logically and intelligently?
If I see people making a bad choice for bad reasons, I'm going to say so loud and clear.
If we vote Leave and things pan out as I expect, I shall wear out the I, T, O, L, D, Y, U and S keys on my keyboard as we drift into becoming a sour reactionary backwater. Doubtless erstwhile Leavers will consider that nasty too.
Fair enough Alastair, but the wonder of the Internet is that people will just move onto other sites. I enjoy pb, I really do, but if I want to read bile I can do that just as easily on Reddit.
I have been described as hating my country, a quisling, a traitor and been wished dead.
I don't think the balance reflects too badly on me.
Accusing others of being nasty is an easy way out, but it is never a good look. The bitterness of some Remainers (not you) is showing already, and yet it's all to play for. I suspect Remain will gain in the last couple of days owing to people's natural inclination for what they believe will be the status quo.
I retain hopes that Mr Hyde (Mr Meeks) will revert to Dr Jekyll come June 24th, whatever the result.
Despite Dave's rhetoric, the result won't be Armageddon whichever way it goes.
I will carry on calling it as I see it, before and after 23 June. I understand that Leavers don't like being tarred as monomaniacs, xenophobes, isolationists, dimwits, irrational optimists, useful idiots and wild-eyed nutjobs, but what am I supposed to do? Pretend that I think they are thinking logically and intelligently?
If I see people making a bad choice for bad reasons, I'm going to say so loud and clear.
If we vote Leave and things pan out as I expect, I shall wear out the I, T, O, L, D, Y, U and S keys on my keyboard as we drift into becoming a sour reactionary backwater. Doubtless erstwhile Leavers will consider that nasty too.
You do seem to be changing from being witty and erudite to being increasingly bitter.
Accusing others of being nasty is an easy way out, but it is never a good look. The bitterness of some Remainers (not you) is showing already, and yet it's all to play for. I suspect Remain will gain in the last couple of days owing to people's natural inclination for what they believe will be the status quo.
I retain hopes that Mr Hyde (Mr Meeks) will revert to Dr Jekyll come June 24th, whatever the result.
Despite Dave's rhetoric, the result won't be Armageddon whichever way it goes.
I will carry on calling it as I see it, before and after 23 June. I understand that Leavers don't like being tarred as monomaniacs, xenophobes, isolationists, dimwits, irrational optimists, useful idiots and wild-eyed nutjobs, but what am I supposed to do? Pretend that I think they are thinking logically and intelligently?
If I see people making a bad choice for bad reasons, I'm going to say so loud and clear.
If we vote Leave and things pan out as I expect, I shall wear out the I, T, O, L, D, Y, U and S keys on my keyboard as we drift into becoming a sour reactionary backwater. Doubtless erstwhile Leavers will consider that nasty too.
You do seem to be changing from being witty and erudite to being increasingly bitter.
In fairness, you have always been clear eyed about the likely consequences of a Leave vote.
I was talking to someone who has put their house on the market today. They were shocked at the valuation and wouldn't mind it going down so younger people can afford houses,...
And then they put the house on the market at the valuation plus £10K...
No, they put it on at the price and expect to sell it for a bit less.
On the Economics of Brexit, Paul Krugman has done a concise piece that seems plausible. He reckons a 2% permanent drop in GDP due to greater trade restrictions is likely but talk of a huge financial crisis and a collapse in the pound is baloney.
What's more significant is the suggestion of how it will play out differently across the UK. His estimation is that London would be severely hit due to the city but other parts of the UK might benefit from a weaker pound.
I have to say I do worry somewhat about London. It's not that long ago we had the riots, it's not a homogeneous place and an economic shock is never good news.
Krugman is full of s**t, he was the loudest proclaimer that Osborne's austerity policies were going to cause a Greek style crash and millions of unemployed. Every prediction he has made for years has been humiliatingly wrong.
Accusing others of being nasty is an easy way out, but it is never a good look. The bitterness of some Remainers (not you) is showing already, and yet it's all to play for. I suspect Remain will gain in the last couple of days owing to people's natural inclination for what they believe will be the status quo.
I retain hopes that Mr Hyde (Mr Meeks) will revert to Dr Jekyll come June 24th, whatever the result.
Despite Dave's rhetoric, the result won't be Armageddon whichever way it goes.
I will carry on calling it as I see it, before and after 23 June. I understand that Leavers don't like being tarred as monomaniacs, xenophobes, isolationists, dimwits, irrational optimists, useful idiots and wild-eyed nutjobs, but what am I supposed to do? Pretend that I think they are thinking logically and intelligently?
If I see people making a bad choice for bad reasons, I'm going to say so loud and clear.
If we vote Leave and things pan out as I expect, I shall wear out the I, T, O, L, D, Y, U and S keys on my keyboard as we drift into becoming a sour reactionary backwater. Doubtless erstwhile Leavers will consider that nasty too.
Alisistair- if things go pear shaped following Brexit, as they inevitably will, these stupid, nihilistic bastards will just attack immigrants (as present), and the Eurocrats (who are they?) as they do now...but with more vitriol.
Brexit has no time or place in modern history other than it might set us back to the horrors of the past.
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB No more published ICM polls. Last night's will be the last. Wonder if a private deal's been done. There's a lot city money flushing about
Less money after today's armageddon.
Footsie closed today 2% down at 5923. On 17 Feb it closed at 5534. We're doing great!!! It all depends on where you start and where you finish, and who doesn't talk to their own book? It is absolutely stupid to draw long term conclusions from short term movements.
The present situation is definitely driven by Brexit thoughts. In the City, it's okay to be wrong when everyone else is wrong, you have to be right when everyone else is right. If you're wrong when everyone else is right you get sacked and if you're right when everyone else is wrong you change jobs. Simples.
Stodge , the problem is that your view is not typical of nor shared by most of Leave supporters . For them xenophobia rules
Mark this is how you view the world, sadly though cracked glasses. Which of the LEAVE supporters on here disagree with Stodge's words? I agree with them in that posting. So we have something in common. Get over it!
Leave supporters on here are nowhere near typical of Leave supporters or voters in the country as a whole .
Any evidence for that bullshit?
Well if you disagree and think there are plenty of xenophobic immigrant haters on here I will bow to your knowledge
No I disagree that the 'typical Leave supporter or voter in the country as a whole' is a "xenophobic immigrant hater". You have evidence for that bullshit?
If you do not believe that immigration is at the forefront of the minds of a large % of those planning to vote Leave you have not been out in country for months nor looked at opinion poll detailed data .
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 23s23 seconds ago EXCL: ComRes/Sun poll tonight - Remain's #EUref lead down to 1 point, 46% v 45%. Last month it was 11, 52% v 41%
I was talking to someone who has put their house on the market today. They were shocked at the valuation and wouldn't mind it going down so younger people can afford houses,...
And then they put the house on the market at the valuation plus £10K...
No, they put it on at the price and expect to sell it for a bit less.
If Leave wins it doesn't mean that we suddenly become a national of bigots and xenophobes. We will still be a fair and tolerant society but will have the freedom to exhibit those qualities as a fully independent and democratic nation. Let's unite to take that opportunity.
Wallets will win in the end. They always do. Leave will win next Thursday, but I would not bet on us ever actually leaving.
Delighted for them. Have had 3 wonderful holidays there. Rejkjavik is wonderful, so many great places like the Cathedral that took 45 years to build at the top of the hill, the chic Cafe Paris and Cafe Opera, Laugevegar Street (the main shopping street with many great Icelandic garments on sale), the Althingi parliament building with the beautiful lake and coloured houses behind.
And then the wild Iceland is another thing altogether.......
On the Economics of Brexit, Paul Krugman has done a concise piece that seems plausible. He reckons a 2% permanent drop in GDP due to greater trade restrictions is likely but talk of a huge financial crisis and a collapse in the pound is baloney.
What's more significant is the suggestion of how it will play out differently across the UK. His estimation is that London would be severely hit due to the city but other parts of the UK might benefit from a weaker pound.
I have to say I do worry somewhat about London. It's not that long ago we had the riots, it's not a homogeneous place and an economic shock is never good news.
Krugman is full of s**t, he was the loudest proclaimer that Osborne's austerity policies were going to cause a Greek style crash and millions of unemployed. Every prediction he has made for years has been humiliatingly wrong.
The important thing is that he is the Guardian's God of economists, and he says project fear is cobblers.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 23s23 seconds ago EXCL: ComRes/Sun poll tonight - Remain's #EUref lead down to 1 point, 46% v 45%. Last month it was 11, 52% v 41%
Accusing others of being nasty is an easy way out, but it is never a good look. The bitterness of some Remainers (not you) is showing already, and yet it's all to play for. I suspect Remain will gain in the last couple of days owing to people's natural inclination for what they believe will be the status quo.
I retain hopes that Mr Hyde (Mr Meeks) will revert to Dr Jekyll come June 24th, whatever the result.
Despite Dave's rhetoric, the result won't be Armageddon whichever way it goes.
I will carry on calling it as I see it, before and after 23 June. I understand that Leavers don't like being tarred as monomaniacs, xenophobes, isolationists, dimwits, irrational optimists, useful idiots and wild-eyed nutjobs, but what am I supposed to do? Pretend that I think they are thinking logically and intelligently?
If I see people making a bad choice for bad reasons, I'm going to say so loud and clear.
If we vote Leave and things pan out as I expect, I shall wear out the I, T, O, L, D, Y, U and S keys on my keyboard as we drift into becoming a sour reactionary backwater. Doubtless erstwhile Leavers will consider that nasty too.
Alisistair- if things go pear shaped following Brexit, as they inevitably will, these stupid, nihilistic bastards will just attack immigrants (as present), and the Eurocrats (who are they?) as they do now...but with more vitriol.
Brexit has no time or place in modern history other than it might set us back to the horrors of the past.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 23s23 seconds ago EXCL: ComRes/Sun poll tonight - Remain's #EUref lead down to 1 point, 46% v 45%. Last month it was 11, 52% v 41%
I imagine Remain will be very happy to take that right now!
If Leave wins it doesn't mean that we suddenly become a national of bigots and xenophobes. We will still be a fair and tolerant society but will have the freedom to exhibit those qualities as a fully independent and democratic nation. Let's unite to take that opportunity.
Do you play golf Sandy? It is a salutary lesson that you always want more- a human condition. Like betting, or accumulating wealth. So I propose to you, we go for a Brexit. Do you think that will stop the debate. Or, it will unleash a potent, racist, nationalistic diatribe that will.......go for more.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 23s23 seconds ago EXCL: ComRes/Sun poll tonight - Remain's #EUref lead down to 1 point, 46% v 45%. Last month it was 11, 52% v 41%
More evidence of maomentum :-) to leave....
Funnily enough, the Leave surge seems to have started when Momentum declared for Remain.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 23s23 seconds ago EXCL: ComRes/Sun poll tonight - Remain's #EUref lead down to 1 point, 46% v 45%. Last month it was 11, 52% v 41%
I imagine Remain will be very happy to take that right now!
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 23s23 seconds ago EXCL: ComRes/Sun poll tonight - Remain's #EUref lead down to 1 point, 46% v 45%. Last month it was 11, 52% v 41%
I imagine Remain will be very happy to take that right now!
Especially if you think the remaining Undecideds will favour Remain.
If the vote was tomorrow, I think Remain would win - by between 2 and 4 points - ie between 51/49 and 52/48 - due to polling booth swingback, Northern Ireland, expats and (maybe) some differential turnout.
But the key point now is momentum - if the current drift from Remain to Leave continues for another week then Leave wins.
Remain has to hold things right where they are now - they cannot afford any more slippage.
Good to remind us in the leave camp that we can ill afford any complacency right now.
Yes, it is clearly going to the wire
I'm stunned Remain is ahead. I suspect there may be worse news in the datasets but we shall see. Remain has got to get every single middle class vote out now and hope Corbyn's NHS show can turn over a few leftie working class. Problem for Remain is that postal voting took place during peak Leave.
Alistair Meeks - We might become a sour reactionary backwater if we leave the EU but then we might if we stay. And to be clear I want to remain. But I can't help but feel you're not happy because your beloved London will suffer the most as a result of Brexit. I much as I want to stay in, seeing the scaling back of the out of control city of London would be welcome.
Comments
"The young princes who now stride the parade ground with the confidence born of aristocratic schooling can never be afraid. " "But now is the light headed dance, the fretful mazurka, of an army that knows it can never arrive."
2% off the stock market is nothing unusual, there were far greater falls during chinas difficulties last summer almost every other day.
Anyone prepared to cede contdol of their country for fear of a few points off the stockmarket which will probably climb bwck by the week after next needs their head examined. The people of the UK are not stupid.
One of my flatmates was a Swedish guy who was an FA (financial analyst) in corporate finance at Goldman. I swear he never managed to spend more than about 30 hours in the flat in a week, he'd pull 18 hour days almost every day.
My other flatmate worked as a computer programmer, earned twice we what both did, and managed to spend more time in the pub that Andreas spent in the flat.
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/742719971600535552
It is true most have said that the economy will be better off under Remain than Leave (based on dubious models which exclude the possibility that the eurozone goes wrong but that's another matter)
If people want to quote economists they should go the actual reports and quite the magnitude of effect that the likes of Oxford Economics state. When they do so, they may understand why it is Remain's campaign which is actually a travesty of expert opinion.
People here are geeks interested in statistics, probability, railways, military history and occasionally politics. We are a pretty unrepresentative bunch of wierdos.
The sort of thing that might matter to a few fanatics.
Its the 2016 Holyrood 'SLab to the slaughter experience', if true.
Dint forget Tunstall and stoke itself! You did remember Fenton which is better than Arnold Bennett though!
If they were down across the board, they would be happy.
Que sera sera.
Accusing others of being nasty is an easy way out, but it is never a good look. The bitterness of some Remainers (not you) is showing already, and yet it's all to play for. I suspect Remain will gain in the last couple of days owing to people's natural inclination for what they believe will be the status quo.
I retain hopes that Mr Hyde (Mr Meeks) will revert to Dr Jekyll come June 24th, whatever the result.
Despite Dave's rhetoric, the result won't be Armageddon whichever way it goes.
(you missed out pedants)
No more published ICM polls. Last night's will be the last. Wonder if a private deal's been done. There's a lot city money flushing about
Didnt forget them...suggesting a dining club in Tunstall is stretching believability.
http://tinyurl.com/lt7bbvs
Some posters here will short circuit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWBrWhrKchQ
This is from an album of WWI songs
If you had read the full exchange rather than picking out one random comment you would see that I was unhappy that somebodys genuine concerns were being addressed in what most people would consider to be an extremely heartless and patronising way. And so i said so.
I'm pleased your friends kept their homes. Genuinely. Not sure why it should have escaped my notice that there have been other periods of negative equity. Not sure that makes it a good thing though?
Presumably if the laws of supply and demand apply that's why prices are what they are?
If I see people making a bad choice for bad reasons, I'm going to say so loud and clear.
If we vote Leave and things pan out as I expect, I shall wear out the I, T, O, L, D, Y, U and S keys on my keyboard as we drift into becoming a sour reactionary backwater. Doubtless erstwhile Leavers will consider that nasty too.
But there is so much good good in London these days
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/06/12/notes-on-brexit/
What's more significant is the suggestion of how it will play out differently across the UK. His estimation is that London would be severely hit due to the city but other parts of the UK might benefit from a weaker pound.
I have to say I do worry somewhat about London. It's not that long ago we had the riots, it's not a homogeneous place and an economic shock is never good news.
Lol. Yes I can't remember eating on Williamson street!
I don't recall shagging any pigs though.
Melaena - that's the word I've been trying to remember for 40-odd years!
A patient I came across in a hospital liked the sound of that word so much, she named her daughter after it.
Edited to try to resolve the quote problem
I don't think the balance reflects too badly on me.
Brexit has no time or place in modern history other than it might set us back to the horrors of the past.
The present situation is definitely driven by Brexit thoughts. In the City, it's okay to be wrong when everyone else is wrong, you have to be right when everyone else is right. If you're wrong when everyone else is right you get sacked and if you're right when everyone else is wrong you change jobs. Simples.
EXCL: ComRes/Sun poll tonight - Remain's #EUref lead down to 1 point, 46% v 45%. Last month it was 11, 52% v 41%
EU referendum poll
Remain: 46% (-6)
Leave: 45% (+4)
(via ComRes, phone)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/742824109680254976
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/742823971066875905
That's more moves to Leave
And then the wild Iceland is another thing altogether.......
http://www.investing.com/currencies/gbp-usd
Clinton 49%
Trump 37%
Johnson 9%
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-14/bloomberg-politics-national-poll-june-2016
https://twitter.com/PadraigBelton/status/742825578101903360
But the key point now is momentum - if the current drift from Remain to Leave continues for another week then Leave wins.
Remain has to hold things right where they are now - they cannot afford any more slippage.
We might be the proverbial straw.
It ain't over til it's over.