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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we await tonight’s ComRes phone poll a bad narrative is
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we await tonight’s ComRes phone poll a bad narrative is developing for Leave
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Is it? First I'm hearing about it.
Does he think the UK exiting the EU will affect Spain more than the UK?
Several people have mentioned it to us this evening whilst out campaigning
Obviously will be tough for some, margins are thin for those at the bottom, but I'm curious why the predicted rise in in pounds, but the drop is in percentage.
For context I'm on £30k myself.
As I said earlier, the "Remain" campaign has not given any reasons why it's in people's self-interest to stay in the EU, except to a narrow section of the wealthy middle-class.
That said, I saw a story summarised as fear vs fact, which annoyed me, as some facts rightfully produce some fear as a result. Same problem I have with criticism of anything as scaremongering - it is a thing, but some things which are true are scary.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/14/dont-want-to-leave-but-hate-the-idea-of-remain-i-have-the-ideal/
For the CDE sector it is more a case of looking at the falls in the footsie and the pound and thinking that won't effect me, but will be a kick to the elite, bankers and city spivs. They deserve it. Lets vote out.
Is that a logical (although very crude) view of how pain for the city could be viewed by two different voting segments?
Stg to rally if we vote to brexit.. You watch
I cashed out of most of my equities in April. I may buy back in later on this year. It's times like this that I like my safe govt paycheck.
'Omar Mateen's wife, Noor Zahi Salman, told the FBI she was with him when he bought ammunition and a holster, several officials familiar with the case said. She told the FBI that she once drove him to the gay nightclub, Pulse, because he wanted to scope it out.'
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/orlando-nightclub-massacre/omar-mateen-s-wife-tried-talk-him-out-orlando-attack-n592051?cid=sm_tw&hootPostID=1631d0b4632c0a40025001e8aec55bcf
The markets will over-react, then the FTSE will rise by polling day as people come in for bargains.
George Osborne
If we remain in EU avg wage in South West will rise by £4,500 - from £26,000 to £30,500. If we leave wages will be 2.8% lower in real terms
In the changing economic global environment, the economy most unable to adapt is the EU. To increase our chances we are better off leaving and becoming more adaptable than the EU. That is where our best economic Darwinist strategy lies.
I think anyone undertaking any serious financial transaction pre Brexit must be plain stupid. And post Brexit, does it matter because we'll all be knackered. Still it is a price worth paying for......... I cannot even thing of one thing to say here.
(There are also some specifics: Santander has a very big British business for example.)
Maybe that is the motivating factor for leavers....to turn the UK into such a shithole that immigrants will leave.
"Euro 2016 violence: What do Russian fans say?"
I think that was as of last night - ie not including today's TNS.
Other big caveat is that he is using the ORB "all voters" numbers.
But even so, if there is any last minute swingback, it's still very easy to see how Remain could still win - if not comfortably then still by quite a bit more than a photo finish.
Remember what was said a couple of weeks ago - Leave needs to be a solid 5 to 7 points ahead to be confident of victory. It's still well short of that - at least at the moment.
Which is why Remain is still clear favourite.
Good point made on Twitter, no coincidence The Sun have picked a side the day before they publish a ComRes poll.
I'm looking to buy property in Dublin. While I wouldn't like to offer financial advice, there is an interesting Dublin REIT out there that could do very well in the event of Brexit.
An unparalleled amount of new supply coming, at a time when demand is dipping (both from EU and off-plan foreign investors).
Hong Kong property fell 60% in one 18 month stretch. I think something similar is entirely possible in London.
Which is good, because my wife would really like to upgrade.
Has Stuart Rose been buried in the Downing Street, er, Rose garden?
That's precisely it with leavers- you really are taking a leave of your collective senses.
Though what Canada thinks might not normally be relevant as it's Boris's number one selling gambit it becomes very significant indeed.
The economic case is becoming so overwhelming if the Remain side aren't able to sell this in the next seven days they deserve to be held responsible for taking Britain into bankruptcy.
After yesterday’s gold standard ICM online and phone polls showing a robust Leave lead, TNS have released new figures showing 47% for Out and 40% for In. This means Leave are now ahead seven points – higher than any poll since YouGov’s nine point lead for Out in February. Remain have won just one poll in the last seven days…
This poll was embargoed til 6pm but the embargo was busted by the Times and Britain Elects
And I didn't even propmpt them !
It's almost as if Brexit is nothing to do with it.
*innocent face*
What evidence is there that todays fall in the UK stockmarket is anything to do with Brexit?
Were previous rises to do with Brexit too?
The stockmarket goes up and down all the time. Anyone who really knows why keeps quiet and makes a fortune. Plenty think they know and lose what they have.
What about families who don't have a massive asset to live in? There is almost always someone worse off.
Not fair is it.
The pollsters need to agree on some uniform reporting standards. At the moment we have claimed 95% turnout numbers being reported as though they are the same as 60% ones.
That's plain silly in my opinion.
"The probability that Remain will win the referendum has fallen from 68% last week to just 51% this week."
International investors in London property (Singaporeans, Chinese, Russians, Middle Eastern) will likely "take a pause" post a Brexit vote. Some banks and financial institutions will inevitably scale down their London offices. London will become less of a technology hub. And overall immigration levels will inevitably fall - in a market that's being built up on the basis of a continued flow of new people.
London's property market will be an utter bloodbath.
And, while I realise this will affect a lot of people negatively, that's probably a good thing in the long term. Prices were unaffordable for too many people.
Last year the dow fell around 7% in a week. Our mkts followed. Ntg to do with brexit.
Secondly some of the protagonists spinning doom and gloom on here were the same oeople who said that there was no way last May that the Lib Dems would get less than 25 seats. Mr Senior was adamant about it . But he and they were wrong .A huge swathe of the population are looking forward to a once in a lifetime opportunity next Thursday. They want to punch the establishment full square on the nose.
They have their fingers in their ears and short of being disenfranchised will not now be moved to a different position. The DKs are splitting fairly evenly but even many youngsters and BME groups are splitting to the extent that apart from the core lib dem and green vote voting remain you cant be sure who is going to vote in or out.
I expect the polls to show a tightening feom around the weekend but up to that point it will be leave in the ascendency stock mkt fall or no stock mkt fall.
Switzerland has many immigrants because it is a successful economy (and indeed, society).