RCS, the logistics of it is tough but they will find a way. Most of the world. Actually, all of the world, staffs their borders.
It's down to will. At the moment the liberal EU luvvies can't believe that we should place checks on free movement. They think the world is lovely and liberal. The fact that not everyone shares this perspective and are hell-bent on criminal activity never entered their elitist dreams.
There have been no real border checks in the post second world war period in Western Europe
It's all part of the ISIS reality check wake-up.
Get used to it Europe. The rest of the world has.
The trouble is it's a shit security model. Pie crust just doesn't work, whether that's networks or borders. It's trivial to bypass or subvert border controls.
Yup, it's a shit model that always seems attractive to non-security people. Got some external danger? Stop it at the border, so it doesn't come in. Budget for a more expensive firewall? Sure. Make me choose a password that isn't the single-word name of my favourite football team? Stop pestering me with your silly IT rules, I'm trying to get some work done.
Yep. Make people choose a password with at least eight characters, that must contain uppercase, lowercase, numbers, symbols, no more than three consecutive letters from their username and no whole word from a dictionary, and make them change it every few weeks, leads to EVERYONE in the office having a post-it note on their monitor or keyboard with the password written down!
The security guy and the CIO think it's great that their network is so secure with these complicated passwords...
When I worked at the Cabinet Office [we had to leave our mobiles in a box on entry] - my default password was set as WorldCup200X. I changed it to WorldCup200Y. And then WorldCup200Z etc every week when it expired.
I use either a series of my old car numbers or a word which has letters which can easily be transposed to numbers (O = Zero, for example) ...... colchester would be a variant on c01ch35t3r. Or the 1 can be !. Capital C or small c, too! Always comes up as “strong”.
No, I NEVER use Colchester!
Someone I know does a similar thing, but the words are in Welsh.
Honestly, you're making too much work for yourself. Just use ColchesterColchesterColchesterthecitywealladore or something. Miles more entropy and much easier to remember.
Probably too long. Most sites seem to ask for 8-16 letters or whatever.
My Facebook one is over 20 characters and a phrase.
If only I needed just to remember one password with a mixture of upper and lower case characters, numerals, special characters and at least 8 digits long. For work alone I must have at least five.
The company that works out how to deliver a secure but easy to remember password system is going to make a fortune.
Let your browser remember your passwords, with a master password that unlocks them.
That's only useful for browsers though. I have to sign into different users and terminals to accomplish different tasks.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
Because the UK can abandon the "keep the wogs poor" Common Agricultural Policy with its high tariffs and price floors.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
Because the UK can abandon the "keep the wogs poor" Common Agricultural Policy with its high tariffs and price floors.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
Because the UK can abandon the "keep the wogs poor" Common Agricultural Policy with its high tariffs and price floors.
It depends on the deal we negotiate.
No, it doesn't. Everyone from Norway to Switzerland to Canada can set their own external tariffs
RCS, the logistics of it is tough but they will find a way. Most of the world. Actually, all of the world, staffs their borders.
It's down to will. At the moment the liberal EU luvvies can't believe that we should place checks on free movement. They think the world is lovely and liberal. The fact that not everyone shares this perspective and are hell-bent on criminal activity never entered their elitist dreams.
There have been no real border checks in the post second world war period in Western Europe
It's all part of the ISIS reality check wake-up.
Get used to it Europe. The rest of the world has.
The trouble is it's a shit security model. Pie crust just doesn't work, whether that's networks or borders. It's trivial to bypass or subvert border controls.
Yup, it's a shit model that always seems attractive to non-security people. Got some external danger? Stop it at the border, so it doesn't come in. Budget for a more expensive firewall? Sure. Make me choose a password that isn't the single-word name of my favourite football team? Stop pestering me with your silly IT rules, I'm trying to get some work done.
Yep. Make people choose a password with at least eight characters, that must contain uppercase, lowercase, numbers, symbols, no more than three consecutive letters from their username and no whole word from a dictionary, and make them change it every few weeks, leads to EVERYONE in the office having a post-it note on their monitor or keyboard with the password written down!
The security guy and the CIO think it's great that their network is so secure with these complicated passwords...
When I worked at the Cabinet Office [we had to leave our mobiles in a box on entry] - my default password was set as WorldCup200X. I changed it to WorldCup200Y. And then WorldCup200Z etc every week when it expired.
I use either a series of my old car numbers or a word which has letters which can easily be transposed to numbers (O = Zero, for example) ...... colchester would be a variant on c01ch35t3r. Or the 1 can be !. Capital C or small c, too! Always comes up as “strong”.
No, I NEVER use Colchester!
Someone I know does a similar thing, but the words are in Welsh.
I capitalise the "P" on my Password11 password I use for everything which I'm sure will foil all would-be hackers.
Don't start me on spousal immigration! The situation they really can't cope with is mine, where I met and married someone while working abroad. I can't prove I have any income as they only count income earned in the UK for their calculations. The result is that I would have to move back before her and get a job (self employment is something else they can't deal with) for up to two years.
The other alternative is for her to turn up and sue the govt under Human Rights, which would almost certainly win. The U.K. struggles both legally and psyically to deport almost anyone. If we had a child born in the UK that would also help.
Under any sort of points system she should easily qualify (she has a degree and is a teacher), maybe in a couple of years if we leave the EU the mess that is the Home Office might have some sympathy for a case like ours.
In the meantime we wonder how, to think of a pertinent example, a Rotherham taxi driver, manages to have no problem marrying his cousin in Pakistan and bringing her (and her parents and siblings) straight back to the UK.
Well this is the thing, when you look at actual cases on the sharp end it turns out that nearly *all* of them involve situations they can't really cope with. For some reason when people who want to expand the immigration bureaucracy run into this they always seem to assume their case is the exception, when in fact it's the rule. We've seen this from several different people right here on pb.
The "points system" thing is quite a sneaky trick by the pro-immigration-bureaucracy side, because everyone assumes that all the legitimate cases would have enough points. In reality it's the same process: A bunch of arbitrary box-checking rules, made by people chasing top-down targets, that inevitably fail when they run into actual, complicated human reality.
It's certainly true that the practice of various government departments and schemes in dealing with real people in the real world, are very different to how they looked in the imagination of some civil servant often years before.
It's still a real pain in the arse when you're caught up in it though, what should be a very simple case in theory is in practice anything but. It's the two years rule that's the killer, if I could get a two year visa for the wife based on a job offer for myself that would make more sense, then two years down the line I could send them my P60 and get her visa extended.
It's a bit like the old tax credits system with its 16 hour limits and a lack of understanding that someone might be flexible and able to work a bit more at certain times. Hopefully the new tax credits will sort that out
If only I needed just to remember one password with a mixture of upper and lower case characters, numerals, special characters and at least 8 digits long. For work alone I must have at least five.
The company that works out how to deliver a secure but easy to remember password system is going to make a fortune.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
Because the UK can abandon the "keep the wogs poor" Common Agricultural Policy with its high tariffs and price floors.
It depends on the deal we negotiate.
No, we'd be out of the CAP area as soon as we leave the EU in 2018 if it is a vote to Leave. I highly doubt the government would pay into the CAP system. We'd probably pay our way into Horizon 2020, but the CAP and CFP would be finished.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
I would go for "meaningfully" rather than "dramatically". If you zero out tariffs on imported beef and lamb, then you'd cut their raw (if you'll exucse the pun) price by about 10-14% (assuming no Sterling depreciation, of course). There'd be no meaningful effect on grains, rice, potatoes. And we'd save good money on fruit from Africa.
I have mine written down in code. Seriously it's the only way I remember them. I'm lucky to only need three, I have no idea why anyone would need five!
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
Because the UK can abandon the "keep the wogs poor" Common Agricultural Policy with its high tariffs and price floors.
It depends on the deal we negotiate.
No, we'd be out of the CAP area as soon as we leave the EU in 2018 if it is a vote to Leave. I highly doubt the government would pay into the CAP system. We'd probably pay our way into Horizon 2020, but the CAP and CFP would be finished.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
I do wonder what will happen if, after a Leave vote, immigration stays at the current level for a while.
Well, quite.
High immigration is linked to a booming economy. As Osborne has noted, you can reduce immigration significantly by crashing the economy. Not sure that is BoZo's ideal scenario
What booming economy ?
Immigration up, UK GDP forecast reduced.
1.6% growth isn't booming, it's below the UK trend.
Our GDP per capita is basically the same now as it was in 2006.
And that's the important one to most people. Growth of 1% when the population gets 1% bigger isn't growth to anyone except statisticians.
Not to mention the trillion pounds plus the incompetents of Downing Street have borrowed in that decade.
And yet we're told that all immigrants are net tax contributors.
Quite. That immigrants as a group might pay more tax then they claim in benefits, doesn't mean that the situation couldn't be substantially improved by having no immigrants claiming benefits or by restricting immigration to only higher-rate taxpayers.
The whole immigrants pay more tax than they claim in benefits meme deliberately omits the cost of the extra public services they use.
Nonsense. The UCL analysis specifically includes things such as health and education costs.
It is wholly irrelevant to the debate though.
One of the central planks of the controlled immigration argument is to look at people who wish to migrate and admit those who are skilled, net contributors and put up the 'Sorry, no vacancies' sign for those who are not skilled and/or who will be a net cost.
People who wish to migrate are not a homogeneous entity, they are a blend of individuals whose cases for entry have varying degrees of merit and who should be assessed accordingly.
Or, alternatively, just let the free market for labour do its job far more efficiently than any bureaucrat can.
As an aside, why is it that the proponents of (additionally) controlled immigration are so keen to admit foreigners to high-paying roles but force Brits to do the potato picking and hotel room cleaning?
An interesting perspective.
Ideally, highly skilled people would come from within our own, but it seems that the UK's education and training system has real difficulty in meeting that need. Perhaps the constant calls for immigration are a way of hiding those failings?
We can import low skilled whenever the need suits us. At the moment that isn't the case. There are at least 15m unemployed/economically inactive or part time workers in the UK.
It's better that people have low skilled work than unemployment. It's better that people have full time hours rather than part time ones.
All the AB types that are meant to be voting remain where are they? Certainly not in large swathes of the london donut where you would expect to find them. Yet more wishful thinking from the chattering political classes?
On the subject of personal attacks, @SeanT's stirring call for everyone to rally around a post-Brexit Britain and his genuine incredulity was touching when I said that I had no intention of hanging together with the Leavers who are taking our country on a potentially disastrous course. It might have been still more touching if he hadn't earlier in the month expressed a wish to see me (and others) dead.
Why are people assuming vast leads for Remain in Northern Ireland ?
The only polling I've seen on the topic is from the Belfast Telegraph which shows a 55 / 35 lead for remain, this is from 2 or 3 weeks ago. Let's assume none of the Leave surge has happened there.
If we have turnout the same as the last general election, this results in a net remain lead of about 65k. It's probably lower now.
I think someone said that the Catholic population was 80:20 in favour of Remain, while the Protestants broke 65:35 for Leave, which would imply perhaps a 100,000 vote lead for Remain there.
That reflects the Feb polling, not the more recent ones. Then there was a 75% Nationalist Remain vote, with 63% unionist. (We should avoid language like Catholic and Protestant, it's unhelpful and inaccurate)
The leave numbers have firmed a bit since then up to 68% on 31st May. I think it's fair to assume it's trended a bit higher since. Perhaps the net remain vote is somewhere between 50k and 100k
Obviously all comes down to turnout, just over 30m people voted at the last election. Some people are clinging to Northern Ireland is good for 1% for Remain which isn't reflected in the polls.
That'd imply a net lead of 300k, which isn't going to happen.
Top information. Excellent post.
So add 0.3% to Remain for NI and add 0.1% for Gibraltar.
For the expats, the Standard poll said 60% would vote and 75% of voters would back remain
1.3 million x0.6 x0.75= 600k remain 1.3 million x 0.6 x 0.25 = 200k leave So 400k net for remain =1.3%
So total expats+NI+Gib=1.7% to the remain score
I'm going to question this. What is your source for 1.3m ? I can't find anywhere remotely close to this number in offical stats. At the last general election, there was 106,000 overseas voters on the register. (source ONS), this is 90% less that you quote. Is it over 10 times higher now ? No, I don't think so.
We can assume a high turn out from this group, as they've gone to the bother to register, even at 75% remain (which I'm frankly doubtful of) on a 80% turnout, it's a 50k - 60k net for remain.
It's irrelevant in the big picture, people aren't looking at this properly.
"It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen"
The post that most elegantly describes the feelings of many of us I would guess.
It's as though everything and everyone is suddenly alien. I don't care less whether a Leave vote makes me personally richer or poorer. It'll do something infinitely more depressing and bleak. It'll made me doubt the inate values of my fellow countrymen which for all our petty differences is something I've never done before.
You have always doubted the inate values of your fellow countrymen. Indeed you have regularly scorned them on here you are simply viewing this result through the prism if your own bigotry.
Do you ever wonder why posters insult you so much more infrequently than you insult them?
I don't think I've ever made one ad hominem attack on Richard, but every time I post nowadays I seem to get something personal back, not only from him, but from many others on this site.
seanT's gracious remarks to me last night made for some grim reading.
It doesn't bother me though at all. I'm thick skinned- and these kind of personal insults real far more about the unpleasant character and personality of the people making them than they could about me.
I attack your views about democracy which are offensive and ignorant. If you don't like the attacks don't hold the offensive views.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
I have mine written down in code. Seriously it's the only way I remember them. I'm lucky to only need three, I have no idea why anyone would need five!
I counted mine recently.
I have 135 for work.
And a password manager...
Yes. I use Keepass together with Dropbox. My passwords are available everywhere, and I only need to remember one master password to access them.
As a contrarian i also think that the pound may have a kneejerk fall to a leave vote but it will bounce back quickly. I was in Aus in April and stg got down to1.82. We are still 10 cents off that and it looks more likely for leave now than then. Unlike the ERM debacle we are not trying ti defend the pound and stay in a system here.
On the subject of personal attacks, @SeanT's stirring call for everyone to rally around a post-Brexit Britain and his genuine incredulity was touching when I said that I had no intention of hanging together with the Leavers who are taking our country on a potentially disastrous course. It might have been still more touching if he hadn't earlier in the month expressed a wish to see me (and others) dead.
Do you have many leaver friends? I don't have many who are openly 'out' but I have no personal animosity towards them. Admittedly since their my friends they'll be something of a self-selecting group.
Why are people assuming vast leads for Remain in Northern Ireland ?
The only polling I've seen on the topic is from the Belfast Telegraph which shows a 55 / 35 lead for remain, this is from 2 or 3 weeks ago. Let's assume none of the Leave surge has happened there.
If we have turnout the same as the last general election, this results in a net remain lead of about 65k. It's probably lower now.
I think someone said that the Catholic population was 80:20 in favour of Remain, while the Protestants broke 65:35 for Leave, which would imply perhaps a 100,000 vote lead for Remain there.
That reflects the Feb polling, not the more recent ones. Then there was a 75% Nationalist Remain vote, with 63% unionist. (We should avoid language like Catholic and Protestant, it's unhelpful and inaccurate)
The leave numbers have firmed a bit since then up to 68% on 31st May. I think it's fair to assume it's trended a bit higher since. Perhaps the net remain vote is somewhere between 50k and 100k
Obviously all comes down to turnout, just over 30m people voted at the last election. Some people are clinging to Northern Ireland is good for 1% for Remain which isn't reflected in the polls.
That'd imply a net lead of 300k, which isn't going to happen.
Top information. Excellent post.
So add 0.3% to Remain for NI and add 0.1% for Gibraltar.
For the expats, the Standard poll said 60% would vote and 75% of voters would back remain
1.3 million x0.6 x0.75= 600k remain 1.3 million x 0.6 x 0.25 = 200k leave So 400k net for remain =1.3%
So total expats+NI+Gib=1.7% to the remain score
I'm going to question this. What is your source for 1.3m ? I can't find anywhere remotely close to this number in offical stats. At the last general election, there was 106,000 overseas voters on the register. (source ONS), this is 90% less that you quote. Is it over 10 times higher now ? No, I don't think so.
We can assume a high turn out from this group, as they've gone to the bother to register, even at 75% remain (which I'm frankly doubtful of) on a 80% turnout, it's a 50k - 60k net for remain.
It's irrelevant in the big picture, people aren't looking at this properly.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 53m53 minutes ago Little anecdote for the doorsteps. Labour MP tells me he has met a lot of people telling him "I'm voting out" who aren't registered.
On the subject of personal attacks, @SeanT's stirring call for everyone to rally around a post-Brexit Britain and his genuine incredulity was touching when I said that I had no intention of hanging together with the Leavers who are taking our country on a potentially disastrous course. It might have been still more touching if he hadn't earlier in the month expressed a wish to see me (and others) dead.
Do you have many leaver friends? I don't have many who are openly 'out' but I have no personal animosity towards them. Admittedly since their my friends they'll be something of a self-selecting group.
@FrankBooth My friends and family are probably split 65:35 Remain:Leave.
In terms of work colleagues and contacts, the split of those declared is something like 90:10:0 Remain:Don't Know:Leave. I'm sure there are shy Leavers among the undeclared and I'm assuming all the Don't Knows are Leavers.
But right to free movement of labour as I cannot see anyway past this issue if we want to trade with the EU
Do you really believe that we wouldn't be able to trade with the EU if we left? Japan is one of the largest non-EU exporters into the EU, there's no free movement between Japan and the EU, the US is the largest trading partner with the EU, there's no free movement between the U and EU.
We will still be able to trade with the EU and we will still be able to buy Mercedes and BMWs. Very little will change if we leave in terms of trade.
We will still be able to trade with the EU but there will be big changes for being outside the single market. I have no doubt that a Free Trade Agreement can be reached using the Korean FTA as a template. Not least because it will drafted in the EU's favour as is the case with the Korean one
However, any commercial activity that depends on free market integration with other EU countries will go. This includes a chunk of financial services, pharmaceutical approval, and businesses that rely on freedom of movement. It won't be limited just to the activities that need to take place in the EU. So drugs companies may move their entire development team to the EU even though it's only the approval part that needs to be there. Finance companies may decide to move their bigger operations to the EU even though non-Euro activities aren't required to be there. And so on.
Unless we join the EEA, that is. I am less sanguine now that this will happen than I was a few days ago. I am sure it will be the preferred choice of the UK side after a Brexit win and people say, what the hell do we do now? It would be an archetypal EU "extend and pretend" decision too. So there is a good chance of it happening, but not nailed on in my view.
If only I needed just to remember one password with a mixture of upper and lower case characters, numerals, special characters and at least 8 digits long. For work alone I must have at least five.
The company that works out how to deliver a secure but easy to remember password system is going to make a fortune.
About 50-100 for the average IT guy, half of which are needed at least weekly. Yes they do get written down, on a big spreadsheet with a long password inside an encrypted folder with another long password, with a printed copy of the necessary ones in a sealed envelope in the CFO's safe in case of emergency - or me getting fired! It's actually quite surprising how many you remember off the top of your head though, when you use them all the time and it's a key part of the job.
On the subject of personal attacks, @SeanT's stirring call for everyone to rally around a post-Brexit Britain and his genuine incredulity was touching when I said that I had no intention of hanging together with the Leavers who are taking our country on a potentially disastrous course. It might have been still more touching if he hadn't earlier in the month expressed a wish to see me (and others) dead.
This is a very passionate debate, is it not? I remember during the time of Likes SeanT wished me dead one night (it's always the night :-D) and got around 25 Likes. But it's all part of the fun on here. If you can't take it, you are best off not participating. There are enough interesting and different views to make the silly stuff worthwhile.
Still think Remain will edge it even though their supporters over the last couple of threads are down in the gutter by giving up on all else and simply labelling opponents as racists.
My concern is whichever side wins will not do it decisively. The problem will fester and rumble on. We really need a decisive vote whatever happens because one way or another we need a firm hard direction to follow on the morning of the 24th. 49/51 won't do it. .
If Brexit just edges it, the country will wake up with an almighty headache the following morning. "What have we done! We've made our point but bloody hell!"
I was in Ireland in 2008 when they first voted on the Lisbon Treaty. They voted No to give the local politicians a kicking over their handling of the banking crisis. There was almost immediate and palpable regret and at a second referendum a year later they voted Yes with a swing of over 20% to the Yes side.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 53m53 minutes ago Little anecdote for the doorsteps. Labour MP tells me he has met a lot of people telling him "I'm voting out" who aren't registered.
Why would an MP be canvassing doors that are not registered?
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
All the AB types that are meant to be voting remain where are they? Certainly not in large swathes of the london donut where you would expect to find them. Yet more wishful thinking from the chattering political classes?
Anecdotal: 'Wainbody Ward' in Coventry will deliver a decent 'remain' vote (According to my source). 'Remain' will need alot more than the 'Wainbody Wards' of the world though...
On the subject of personal attacks, @SeanT's stirring call for everyone to rally around a post-Brexit Britain and his genuine incredulity was touching when I said that I had no intention of hanging together with the Leavers who are taking our country on a potentially disastrous course. It might have been still more touching if he hadn't earlier in the month expressed a wish to see me (and others) dead.
TBH, Mr M, if “we” do make the horrendous mistake of voting Leave, then surely it will be the duty of all good “men” to come to the aid of the party, do our best to ameliorate the effects and achieve the best alternative.
About the latter of course, the Leavers are imitating ferrets in a sack!
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
Wrong. It is part of the £350m/week. It comes under the "Traditional resources" category of contributions by the member states.
On the subject of personal attacks, @SeanT's stirring call for everyone to rally around a post-Brexit Britain and his genuine incredulity was touching when I said that I had no intention of hanging together with the Leavers who are taking our country on a potentially disastrous course. It might have been still more touching if he hadn't earlier in the month expressed a wish to see me (and others) dead.
I might have more sympathy if you had not attacked me in a deeply personal and offensive way some time ago.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
We'll see. Tariff cuts do not have to be passed on, of course. I am looking forward to trying Ugandan cheese.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 53m53 minutes ago Little anecdote for the doorsteps. Labour MP tells me he has met a lot of people telling him "I'm voting out" who aren't registered.
I would take everything Dan Hodges says with a 'pinch of salt'. By pinch I mean truckload and by salt I mean bullshit.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 53m53 minutes ago Little anecdote for the doorsteps. Labour MP tells me he has met a lot of people telling him "I'm voting out" who aren't registered.
Why would an MP be canvassing doors that are not registered?
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
why would any attach tariffs on food exports (we would just buy elsewhere). Likewise why on earth would we introduce a tariff on food imports when we don't grow enough....
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 53m53 minutes ago Little anecdote for the doorsteps. Labour MP tells me he has met a lot of people telling him "I'm voting out" who aren't registered.
I would take everything Dan Hodges says with a 'pinch of salt'. By pinch I mean truckload and by salt I mean bullshit.
Dan wouldn't be facing this referendum if Ed Miliband was in charge
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 53m53 minutes ago Little anecdote for the doorsteps. Labour MP tells me he has met a lot of people telling him "I'm voting out" who aren't registered.
I would take everything Dan Hodges says with a 'pinch of salt'. By pinch I mean truckload and by salt I mean bullshit.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 53m53 minutes ago Little anecdote for the doorsteps. Labour MP tells me he has met a lot of people telling him "I'm voting out" who aren't registered.
Why would an MP be canvassing doors that are not registered?
Perhaps there were three doors, behind two of them were people who weren't registered, but behind the third was a registered voter...
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 53m53 minutes ago Little anecdote for the doorsteps. Labour MP tells me he has met a lot of people telling him "I'm voting out" who aren't registered.
I would take everything Dan Hodges says with a 'pinch of salt'. By pinch I mean truckload and by salt I mean bullshit.
Yep. But there will be a lot of unregistered voters, many of them Labour-leaning. That was thought to be a problem for Remain given the assumption that most Labour supporters would vote to stay in the EU, but if there has been a big Labour swing to Leave that may no longer be the case.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 53m53 minutes ago Little anecdote for the doorsteps. Labour MP tells me he has met a lot of people telling him "I'm voting out" who aren't registered.
Why would an MP be canvassing doors that are not registered?
Thats total bull..
I don't know anything about the truth of the matter, but it does arise, especially in mobile urban areas. What happens is you canvass a house where you expect to find a Laura Smith and a bloke answers and tells you that Laura moved last month but also how he's going to vote. If he says he's going to support you, you try to find out where he's registered (if at all); if he's going to oppose you, you don't waste time and just move on.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Why are people assuming vast leads for Remain in Northern Ireland ?
The only polling I've seen on the topic is from the Belfast Telegraph which shows a 55 / 35 lead for remain, this is from 2 or 3 weeks ago. Let's assume none of the Leave surge has happened there.
If we have turnout the same as the last general election, this results in a net remain lead of about 65k. It's probably lower now.
I think someone said that the Catholic population was 80:20 in favour of Remain, while the Protestants broke 65:35 for Leave, which would imply perhaps a 100,000 vote lead for Remain there.
That reflects the Feb polling, not the more recent ones. Then there was a 75% Nationalist Remain vote, with 63% unionist. (We should avoid language like Catholic and Protestant, it's unhelpful and inaccurate)
The leave numbers have firmed a bit since then up to 68% on 31st May. I think it's fair to assume it's trended a bit higher since. Perhaps the net remain vote is somewhere between 50k and 100k
Obviously all comes down to turnout, just over 30m people voted at the last election. Some people are clinging to Northern Ireland is good for 1% for Remain which isn't reflected in the polls.
That'd imply a net lead of 300k, which isn't going to happen.
Top information. Excellent post.
So add 0.3% to Remain for NI and add 0.1% for Gibraltar.
For the expats, the Standard poll said 60% would vote and 75% of voters would back remain
1.3 million x0.6 x0.75= 600k remain 1.3 million x 0.6 x 0.25 = 200k leave So 400k net for remain =1.3%
So total expats+NI+Gib=1.7% to the remain score
I'm going to question this. What is your source for 1.3m ? I can't find anywhere remotely close to this number in offical stats. At the last general election, there was 106,000 overseas voters on the register. (source ONS), this is 90% less that you quote. Is it over 10 times higher now ? No, I don't think so.
We can assume a high turn out from this group, as they've gone to the bother to register, even at 75% remain (which I'm frankly doubtful of) on a 80% turnout, it's a 50k - 60k net for remain.
It's irrelevant in the big picture, people aren't looking at this properly.
If we assume that 50% of those living in the EU vote, and 25% of those in the RoW, then you get something very close to GoV's numbers.
Pretty much all my expat friends (excepting Indigo) are voting via proxies at this election.
We also need to include Irish, Cypriot, and Maltese voters resident in the UK as voters.
At the acknowledged risk of being wrong (and I'm an overseas registered voter), there may be 1.3m living in the EU etc, but they aren't on the electoral register in the UK and unless they've gone to the trouble to register, they can't vote via proxies or otherwise.
There's only 106k on the roll. That's a hard number.
If only I needed just to remember one password with a mixture of upper and lower case characters, numerals, special characters and at least 8 digits long. For work alone I must have at least five.
The company that works out how to deliver a secure but easy to remember password system is going to make a fortune.
About 50-100 for the average IT guy, half of which are needed at least weekly. Yes they do get written down, on a big spreadsheet with a long password inside an encrypted folder with another long password, with a printed copy of the necessary ones in a sealed envelope in the CFO's safe in case of emergency - or me getting fired! It's actually quite surprising how many you remember off the top of your head though, when you use them all the time and it's a key part of the job.
The key phrase there is "all of the time" - humans learn by repetition. I work in a small insurance brokerage and often several days or weeks pass before a certain type of policy is needed from a certain insurer.
Then there is the FCA where I logon once every 6 months . . .
Dutch Minister calls for us to be more 'active' if we vote to Remain:
"He adds that voters in the UK may not be very interested in what he has to say, but he believes that there is a "strong argument for European co-operation" to be made.
He says that if the UK does vote to remain, he "would like to see them become an active member" of the EU, adding that the country has become "more and more passive" in its role in recent years. "
Cameron's turn of heart, from knocking the EU while vaunting his promised referendum, and threatening to quit if he didn't get a good deal, to becoming an EU evangelist, would have been far more credible if his pro-EU position had a sceptical edge to it, or if he'd got a more game-changing deal.
Realistically Cameron didn't leave a sufficient timeframe to negotiate it in, but something like associate membership (with suitable guarantees on non-core countries not being outvoted en bloc by the inner group on certain issues) is the logical direction of travel for the UK if it remains in the EU, and probably several other countries too.
However, formalised semi-detachment seems to be regarded as a threat to the European Project.
For all the criticism of Leave being a "vote into the dark", I'm really not sure what I'd be getting on a 10-20 year timespan if I voted Remain either.
On the subject of personal attacks, @SeanT's stirring call for everyone to rally around a post-Brexit Britain and his genuine incredulity was touching when I said that I had no intention of hanging together with the Leavers who are taking our country on a potentially disastrous course. It might have been still more touching if he hadn't earlier in the month expressed a wish to see me (and others) dead.
This is a very passionate debate, is it not? I remember during the time of Likes SeanT wished me dead one night (it's always the night :-D) and got around 25 Likes. But it's all part of the fun on here. If you can't take it, you are best off not participating. There are enough interesting and different views to make the silly stuff worthwhile.
Mmm, that's a bit too much "blame the victim" for my taste - we would lose a genuine talent from his point of view if Alastair moved away. seanT is sui generis and rarely to be taken entirely literally, but the personal abuse that one sometimes sees here sucks, and we all need to jump on it when it happens.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 53m53 minutes ago Little anecdote for the doorsteps. Labour MP tells me he has met a lot of people telling him "I'm voting out" who aren't registered.
It's actually quite surprising how many you remember off the top of your head though, when you use them all the time and it's a key part of the job.
I cut'n'paste them (yes, yes, I know) out of a password manager. I never type any of them, I have no idea what they are, and they change quite a lot.
That works for web passwords, not so much for Remote Desktop logins. Having them so that you know it will take a few mins to open the sheet if you forget them is also good mind exercise!
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 53m53 minutes ago Little anecdote for the doorsteps. Labour MP tells me he has met a lot of people telling him "I'm voting out" who aren't registered.
The problem with Dan's anecdotes is that the headline numbers in the polls have already had considerable adjustments made to them for turnout assumptions.
Yesterday's 5 point lead in the online ICM was actually 12 points ahead on 10/10 to vote.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
Given Japanese and American car companies already have substantial European production, I don't buy that they'll start shipping halfway around the world. Furthermore, US production tends to be much more 'light truck' oriented, and I'm not sure demand is that high in the UK for 15mpg F Series pick ups or 12mpg Chevrolet Eldorado.
I also don't buy the idea that the UK government will unilaterally cut tariffs - because if your tariffs are zero, then our leverage to persuade others to open up their markets to our companies disappears.
I have to agree with Nick P below. The overhyping on the remain side has been a huge mistake (both sides have done it but remain need people to believe in the risks).
Feels like a toin coss at the moment, remain definitely less confident than before (not a bad thing)...both sides can convince themselves why the polls maybe understating them
Why are people assuming vast leads for Remain in Northern Ireland ?
The only polling I've seen on the topic is from the Belfast Telegraph which shows a 55 / 35 lead for remain, this is from 2 or 3 weeks ago. Let's assume none of the Leave surge has happened there.
If we have turnout the same as the last general election, this results in a net remain lead of about 65k. It's probably lower now.
I think someone said that the Catholic population was 80:20 in favour of Remain, while the Protestants broke 65:35 for Leave, which would imply perhaps a 100,000 vote lead for Remain there.
That reflects the Feb polling, not the more recent ones. Then there was a 75% Nationalist Remain vote, with 63% unionist. (We should avoid language like Catholic and Protestant, it's unhelpful and inaccurate)
The leave numbers have firmed a bit since then up to 68% on 31st May. I think it's fair to assume it's trended a bit higher since. Perhaps the net remain vote is somewhere between 50k and 100k
Obviously all comes down to turnout, just over 30m people voted at the last election. Some people are clinging to Northern Ireland is good for 1% for Remain which isn't reflected in the polls.
That'd imply a net lead of 300k, which isn't going to happen.
Top information. Excellent post.
So add 0.3% to Remain for NI and add 0.1% for Gibraltar.
For the expats, the Standard poll said 60% would vote and 75% of voters would back remain
1.3 million x0.6 x0.75= 600k remain 1.3 million x 0.6 x 0.25 = 200k leave So 400k net for remain =1.3%
If we assume that 50% of those living in the EU vote, and 25% of those in the RoW, then you get something very close to GoV's numbers.
Pretty much all my expat friends (excepting Indigo) are voting via proxies at this election.
We also need to include Irish, Cypriot, and Maltese voters resident in the UK as voters.
At the acknowledged risk of being wrong (and I'm an overseas registered voter), there may be 1.3m living in the EU etc, but they aren't on the electoral register in the UK and unless they've gone to the trouble to register, they can't vote via proxies or otherwise.
There's only 106k on the roll. That's a hard number.
I imagine that quite a lot have registered over the past year. Anecdotally, I've heard that there have been a lot of postal votes from ex-pats in one London borough.
But, clearly, nothing like 1.3 m will be registered (or would be eligible to vote, anyway). I had thought that the number of ex-pats registered to vote was much higher than 106,000, but if that is correct, then even if another 200,000 were to register, the impact on the outcome would be marginal.
Edit, but even a net 250,000 from Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, and overseas, combined, might swing it for Remain in a really tight contest.
Imagine if, by the morning of June 24th, there are only a couple of thousand votes separating the sides.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 53m53 minutes ago Little anecdote for the doorsteps. Labour MP tells me he has met a lot of people telling him "I'm voting out" who aren't registered.
The problem with Dan's anecdotes is that the headline numbers in the polls have already had considerable adjustments made to them for turnout assumptions.
Yesterday's 5 point lead in the online ICM was actually 12 points ahead on 10/10 to vote.
Is 10/10, a measure of will definitely be voting, or does it also check they are registered to actually vote?
Dutch Minister calls for us to be more 'active' if we vote to Remain:
"He adds that voters in the UK may not be very interested in what he has to say, but he believes that there is a "strong argument for European co-operation" to be made.
He says that if the UK does vote to remain, he "would like to see them become an active member" of the EU, adding that the country has become "more and more passive" in its role in recent years. "
Cameron's turn of heart, from knocking the EU while vaunting his promised referendum, and threatening to quit if he didn't get a good deal, to becoming an EU evangelist, would have been far more credible if his pro-EU position had a sceptical edge to it, or if he'd got a more game-changing deal.
Realistically Cameron didn't leave a sufficient timeframe to negotiate it in, but something like associate membership (with suitable guarantees on non-core countries not being outvoted en bloc by the inner group on certain issues) is the logical direction of travel for the UK if it remains in the EU, and probably several other countries too.
However, formalised semi-detachment seems to be regarded as a threat to the European Project.
For all the criticism of Leave being a "vote into the dark", I'm really not sure what I'd be getting on a 10-20 year timespan if I voted Remain either.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
But then, being outside the EU, the 10% import tariff will presumably also apply to cars built here for export to the EU. Tough times ahead for JLR. And companies like Nissan and Toyota will also be considering their options.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 53m53 minutes ago Little anecdote for the doorsteps. Labour MP tells me he has met a lot of people telling him "I'm voting out" who aren't registered.
I would take everything Dan Hodges says with a 'pinch of salt'. By pinch I mean truckload and by salt I mean bullshit.
Yep. But there will be a lot of unregistered voters, many of them Labour-leaning. That was thought to be a problem for Remain given the assumption that most Labour supporters would vote to stay in the EU, but if there has been a big Labour swing to Leave that may no longer be the case.
One thing I would say is that Leave is indeed relying on a group from poor WWC Labour strongholds which often have low turnout/registration rates.
Of course, much of this is simply due to the fact that there is not much point voting in places like Doncaster, as the result is a foregone conclusion. But that fact in and of itself may indeed depress registration rates.
By contrast, Remain's middle class professional vote are usually high turnout.
I write this as a Leave backer, and a Remain supporter.
Why are people assuming vast leads for Remain in Northern Ireland ?
If we have turnout the same as the last general election, this results in a net remain lead of about 65k. It's probably lower now.
I think someone said that the Catholic population was 80:20 in favour of Remain, while the Protestants broke 65:35 for Leave, which would imply perhaps a 100,000 vote lead for Remain there.
That reflects the Feb polling, not the more recent ones. Then there was a 75% Nationalist Remain vote, with 63% unionist. (We should avoid language like Catholic and Protestant, it's unhelpful and inaccurate)
The leave numbers have firmed a bit since then up to 68% on 31st May. I think it's fair to assume it's trended a bit higher since. Perhaps the net remain vote is somewhere between 50k and 100k
Obviously all comes down to turnout, just over 30m people voted at the last election. Some people are clinging to Northern Ireland is good for 1% for Remain which isn't reflected in the polls.
That'd imply a net lead of 300k, which isn't going to happen.
Top information. Excellent post.
So add 0.3% to Remain for NI and add 0.1% for Gibraltar.
For the expats, the Standard poll said 60% would vote and 75% of voters would back remain
1.3 million x0.6 x0.75= 600k remain 1.3 million x 0.6 x 0.25 = 200k leave So 400k net for remain =1.3%
So total expats+NI+Gib=1.7% to the remain score
I'm going to question this. What is your source for 1.3m ? I can't find anywhere remotely close to this number in offical stats. At the last general election, there was 106,000 overseas voters on the register. (source ONS), this is 90% less that you quote. Is it over 10 times higher now ? No, I don't think so.
We can assume a high turn out from this group, as they've gone to the bother to register, even at 75% remain (which I'm frankly doubtful of) on a 80% turnout, it's a 50k - 60k net for remain.
It's irrelevant in the big picture, people aren't looking at this properly.
If we assume that 50% of those living in the EU vote, and 25% of those in the RoW, then you get something very close to GoV's numbers.
Pretty much all my expat friends (excepting Indigo) are voting via proxies at this election.
We also need to include Irish, Cypriot, and Maltese voters resident in the UK as voters.
At the acknowledged risk of being wrong (and I'm an overseas registered voter), there may be 1.3m living in the EU etc, but they aren't on the electoral register in the UK and unless they've gone to the trouble to register, they can't vote via proxies or otherwise.
There's only 106k on the roll. That's a hard number.
That's lower than I thought it would be, then I remember that they don't have me down an an overseas voter, being registered at my old address and having someone send it here and back again. Probably most who are only away for a couple of years are registered like that.
There have been quite a few friends and acquaintances that have registered from abroad for this referendum, so the numbers may now be higher.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
Given Japanese and American car companies already have substantial European production, I don't buy that they'll start shipping halfway around the world. Furthermore, US production tends to be much more 'light truck' oriented, and I'm not sure demand is that high in the UK for 15mpg F Series pick ups or 12mpg Chevrolet Eldorado.
I also don't buy the idea that the UK government will unilaterally cut tariffs - because if your tariffs are zero, then our leverage to persuade others to open up their markets to our companies disappears.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
On the subject of personal attacks, @SeanT's stirring call for everyone to rally around a post-Brexit Britain and his genuine incredulity was touching when I said that I had no intention of hanging together with the Leavers who are taking our country on a potentially disastrous course. It might have been still more touching if he hadn't earlier in the month expressed a wish to see me (and others) dead.
I might have more sympathy if you had not attacked me in a deeply personal and offensive way some time ago.
I have never attacked you.
Mr Meeks has insulted almost everyone who isn't part of his very small subset of the 1% club, and the most exquisite example of the Superior Being Remain voter. @SeanT got it spot on last night.
He's a second home in Hungary, with a heated swimming pool - and IIRC a third in Ireland.
You can cover the draw and the Welsh win Thursday and profit whatever happens unless England win. Both the draw and the Welsh victory are way too long IMO.
As an England fan, and a bettor who always bets against his own preferred outcome, I have taken this as a form of insurance, and for the value. If England beat Wales, I will be delighted to lose my stakes.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
Does the EU or the UK keep the import duty and also the VAT levied on imports?
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
But then, being outside the EU, the 10% import tariff will presumably also apply to cars built here for export to the EU. Tough times ahead for JLR. And companies like Nissan and Toyota will also be considering their options.
Usual scaremongering
The EU is not in a position to start a trade war on cars we import about 1 million more of the things from them than we sell them.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
Does the EU or the UK keep the import duty and also the VAT levied on imports?
VAT from imports goes to the host country, while 75% of the Common External Tariff goes to the EU. However, the total we pay includes the CET we collect, so you can't add it to the £350m (pre-rebate).
On the subject of personal attacks, @SeanT's stirring call for everyone to rally around a post-Brexit Britain and his genuine incredulity was touching when I said that I had no intention of hanging together with the Leavers who are taking our country on a potentially disastrous course. It might have been still more touching if he hadn't earlier in the month expressed a wish to see me (and others) dead.
I might have more sympathy if you had not attacked me in a deeply personal and offensive way some time ago.
I have never attacked you.
Mr Meeks has insulted almost everyone who isn't part of his very small subset of the 1% club, and the most exquisite example of the Superior Being Remain voter. @SeanT got it spot on last night.
He's a second home in Hungary, with a heated swimming pool - and IIRC a third in Ireland.
PB's own Eddie Izzard.
What relevance to anything at does his owning a heated swimming pool have, beyond sneering reverse snobbery? Bizarre post, even by your standards.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Don't start me on spousal immigration! The situation they really can't cope with is mine, where I met and married someone while working abroad. I can't prove I have any income as they only count income earned in the UK for their calculations. The result is that I would have to move back before her and get a job (self employment is something else they can't deal with) for up to two years.
The other alternative is for her to turn up and sue the govt under Human Rights, which would almost certainly win. The U.K. struggles both legally and psyically to deport almost anyone. If we had a child born in the UK that would also help.
Under any sort of points system she should easily qualify (she has a degree and is a teacher), maybe in a couple of years if we leave the EU the mess that is the Home Office might have some sympathy for a case like ours.
In the meantime we wonder how, to think of a pertinent example, a Rotherham taxi driver, manages to have no problem marrying his cousin in Pakistan and bringing her (and her parents and siblings) straight back to the UK.
Well this is the thing, when you look at actual cases on the sharp end it turns out that nearly *all* of them involve situations they can't really cope with. For some reason when people who want to expand the immigration bureaucracy run into this they always seem to assume their case is the exception, when in fact it's the rule. We've seen this from several different people right here on pb.
The "points system" thing is quite a sneaky trick by the pro-immigration-bureaucracy side, because everyone assumes that all the legitimate cases would have enough points. In reality it's the same process: A bunch of arbitrary box-checking rules, made by people chasing top-down targets, that inevitably fail when they run into actual, complicated human reality.
Yes, we had a case in the most Tory/UKIP part of Broxtowe where the Latvian couple running the local pub, who'd rescued it from near-dereliction to a popular local watering-hole, were seized and deported with their kid at 7am one morning, less than a year before Latvia joined the EU so they'd have been entitled to stay anyway. Photos in the local paper of baby's toys left abandoned in the scramble etc. People who I'd known for years as rigorously anti-immigration were incensed; conversely, the head of the team who'd deported them said, exasperated, "Do people want the rules followed strictly or not?"
You can cover the draw and the Welsh win Thursday and profit whatever happens unless England win. Both the draw and the Welsh victory are way too long IMO.
As an England fan, and a bettor who always bets against his own preferred outcome, I have taken this as a form of insurance, and for the value. If England beat Wales, I will be delighted to lose my stakes.
Betting against England with an English bookie is pretty much always value. Patriotic fans mean that sheer weight of money on England forces the price down.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
All the AB types that are meant to be voting remain where are they? Certainly not in large swathes of the london donut where you would expect to find them. Yet more wishful thinking from the chattering political classes?
Anecdotal: 'Wainbody Ward' in Coventry will deliver a decent 'remain' vote (According to my source). 'Remain' will need alot more than the 'Wainbody Wards' of the world though...
Well as long as Wainbody ward has an electorate of around 2million then the remain side should be fine.
On the subject of personal attacks, @SeanT's stirring call for everyone to rally around a post-Brexit Britain and his genuine incredulity was touching when I said that I had no intention of hanging together with the Leavers who are taking our country on a potentially disastrous course. It might have been still more touching if he hadn't earlier in the month expressed a wish to see me (and others) dead.
This is a very passionate debate, is it not? I remember during the time of Likes SeanT wished me dead one night (it's always the night :-D) and got around 25 Likes. But it's all part of the fun on here. If you can't take it, you are best off not participating. There are enough interesting and different views to make the silly stuff worthwhile.
Mmm, that's a bit too much "blame the victim" for my taste - we would lose a genuine talent from his point of view if Alastair moved away. seanT is sui generis and rarely to be taken entirely literally, but the personal abuse that one sometimes sees here sucks, and we all need to jump on it when it happens.
Alastair is a big boy, he can take it. I would hate to see him driven away, but I doubt he will be. You are right, though, it's not nice. I am aware I have given it to you at stages over recent times. I apologise. But sometimes the fingers get carried away and there are passions involved. Too much abuse gets silly. But at a certain level, it's what happens on an internet message board. It does come with territory.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
But then, being outside the EU, the 10% import tariff will presumably also apply to cars built here for export to the EU. Tough times ahead for JLR. And companies like Nissan and Toyota will also be considering their options.
Usual scaremongering
The EU is not in a position to start a trade war on cars we import about 1 million more of the things from them than we sell them.
Why is it scaremongering? If we are outside the EU, why would the EU offer us far better conditions than it does to Japan, the US and Australia? Especially when it stands to benefit from the possible transfer of investment by, e.g., Japanese car manufacturers.
Comments
http://capx.co/the-eu-may-work-for-the-metropolitan-elite-but-it-doesnt-for-most-working-people/
You are buying the wrong NZ pinot, by the way. .
FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES THE NUCLEAR LAUNCH CODE AT ALL MINUTEMAN SILOS IN THE UNITED STATES WAS 00000000
http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2013/11/nearly-two-decades-nuclear-launch-code-minuteman-silos-united-states-00000000/
Well it said it had to be a minimum of eight characters.
https://www.yubico.com/
It's still a real pain in the arse when you're caught up in it though, what should be a very simple case in theory is in practice anything but. It's the two years rule that's the killer, if I could get a two year visa for the wife based on a job offer for myself that would make more sense, then two years down the line I could send them my P60 and get her visa extended.
It's a bit like the old tax credits system with its 16 hour limits and a lack of understanding that someone might be flexible and able to work a bit more at certain times. Hopefully the new tax credits will sort that out
I have 135 for work.
And a password manager...
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
Ideally, highly skilled people would come from within our own, but it seems that the UK's education and training system has real difficulty in meeting that need. Perhaps the constant calls for immigration are a way of hiding those failings?
We can import low skilled whenever the need suits us. At the moment that isn't the case. There are at least 15m unemployed/economically inactive or part time workers in the UK.
It's better that people have low skilled work than unemployment.
It's better that people have full time hours rather than part time ones.
Certainly not in large swathes of the london donut where you would expect to find them.
Yet more wishful thinking from the chattering political classes?
https://electionsetc.com/2016/06/14/a-5050-forecast-from-the-historical-referendums-and-polls-based-method/
We can assume a high turn out from this group, as they've gone to the bother to register, even at 75% remain (which I'm frankly doubtful of) on a 80% turnout, it's a 50k - 60k net for remain.
It's irrelevant in the big picture, people aren't looking at this properly.
I was in Aus in April and stg got down to1.82.
We are still 10 cents off that and it looks more likely for leave now than then.
Unlike the ERM debacle we are not trying ti defend the pound and stay in a system here.
If we assume that 50% of those living in the EU vote, and 25% of those in the RoW, then you get something very close to GoV's numbers.
Pretty much all my expat friends (excepting Indigo) are voting via proxies at this election.
We also need to include Irish, Cypriot, and Maltese voters resident in the UK as voters.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 53m53 minutes ago
Little anecdote for the doorsteps. Labour MP tells me he has met a lot of people telling him "I'm voting out" who aren't registered.
In terms of work colleagues and contacts, the split of those declared is something like 90:10:0 Remain:Don't Know:Leave. I'm sure there are shy Leavers among the undeclared and I'm assuming all the Don't Knows are Leavers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6iW-8xPw3k
However, any commercial activity that depends on free market integration with other EU countries will go. This includes a chunk of financial services, pharmaceutical approval, and businesses that rely on freedom of movement. It won't be limited just to the activities that need to take place in the EU. So drugs companies may move their entire development team to the EU even though it's only the approval part that needs to be there. Finance companies may decide to move their bigger operations to the EU even though non-Euro activities aren't required to be there. And so on.
Unless we join the EEA, that is. I am less sanguine now that this will happen than I was a few days ago. I am sure it will be the preferred choice of the UK side after a Brexit win and people say, what the hell do we do now? It would be an archetypal EU "extend and pretend" decision too. So there is a good chance of it happening, but not nailed on in my view.
I was in Ireland in 2008 when they first voted on the Lisbon Treaty. They voted No to give the local politicians a kicking over their handling of the banking crisis. There was almost immediate and palpable regret and at a second referendum a year later they voted Yes with a swing of over 20% to the Yes side.
About the latter of course, the Leavers are imitating ferrets in a sack!
I have never attacked you.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
There's only 106k on the roll. That's a hard number.
Then there is the FCA where I logon once every 6 months . . .
Cameron's turn of heart, from knocking the EU while vaunting his promised referendum, and threatening to quit if he didn't get a good deal, to becoming an EU evangelist, would have been far more credible if his pro-EU position had a sceptical edge to it, or if he'd got a more game-changing deal.
Realistically Cameron didn't leave a sufficient timeframe to negotiate it in, but something like associate membership (with suitable guarantees on non-core countries not being outvoted en bloc by the inner group on certain issues) is the logical direction of travel for the UK if it remains in the EU, and probably several other countries too.
However, formalised semi-detachment seems to be regarded as a threat to the European Project.
For all the criticism of Leave being a "vote into the dark", I'm really not sure what I'd be getting on a 10-20 year timespan if I voted Remain either.
Yesterday's 5 point lead in the online ICM was actually 12 points ahead on 10/10 to vote.
I also don't buy the idea that the UK government will unilaterally cut tariffs - because if your tariffs are zero, then our leverage to persuade others to open up their markets to our companies disappears.
Feels like a toin coss at the moment, remain definitely less confident than before (not a bad thing)...both sides can convince themselves why the polls maybe understating them
But, clearly, nothing like 1.3 m will be registered (or would be eligible to vote, anyway). I had thought that the number of ex-pats registered to vote was much higher than 106,000, but if that is correct, then even if another 200,000 were to register, the impact on the outcome would be marginal.
Edit, but even a net 250,000 from Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, and overseas, combined, might swing it for Remain in a really tight contest.
Imagine if, by the morning of June 24th, there are only a couple of thousand votes separating the sides.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ck3xlFmUYAAmK4E.jpg
Of course, much of this is simply due to the fact that there is not much point voting in places like Doncaster, as the result is a foregone conclusion. But that fact in and of itself may indeed depress registration rates.
By contrast, Remain's middle class professional vote are usually high turnout.
I write this as a Leave backer, and a Remain supporter.
There have been quite a few friends and acquaintances that have registered from abroad for this referendum, so the numbers may now be higher.
He's a second home in Hungary, with a heated swimming pool - and IIRC a third in Ireland.
PB's own Eddie Izzard.
You can cover the draw and the Welsh win Thursday and profit whatever happens unless England win. Both the draw and the Welsh victory are way too long IMO.
As an England fan, and a bettor who always bets against his own preferred outcome, I have taken this as a form of insurance, and for the value. If England beat Wales, I will be delighted to lose my stakes.
Does the EU or the UK keep the import duty and also the VAT levied on imports?
The EU is not in a position to start a trade war on cars we import about 1 million more of the things from them than we sell them.
Yummy. So much better than french sauvignon blanc.
https://twitter.com/claire4devizes/status/596580146267697153