I do wonder what will happen if, after a Leave vote, immigration stays at the current level for a while.
Well, quite.
High immigration is linked to a booming economy. As Osborne has noted, you can reduce immigration significantly by crashing the economy. Not sure that is BoZo's ideal scenario
What booming economy ?
Immigration up, UK GDP forecast reduced.
1.6% growth isn't booming, it's below the UK trend.
Our GDP per capita is basically the same now as it was in 2006.
And that's the important one to most people. Growth of 1% when the population gets 1% bigger isn't growth to anyone except statisticians.
Remain still have a 11 lead on the economy, that is what did for Ed.
For someone professing to support Leave you sure post a lot of posts on the other side
I think one of the biggest mistakes Remain made was to correlate a General Election with the EU Ref. A terrible, terrible, mistake.
By the way, nunu, you sleep even less than me. Or do you live abroad?
I just don't have my blinkers on like most on here, this has really become an echo chamber. As for my sleeping patterns I am unemployed at the moment which fits the pattern of me voting leave. Most people (almost all) who have middle class professional jobs are going to vote remain in my experience. They are just not going to risk that. Its only people who don't have anything to lose who will vote out mainly.
I was speaking to a friend yesterday who is perplexed that I am voting Leave. "Don't you have any investments?" he asked.
This is not over yet. Project fear on the economy will continue to be played. Much will depend on how the markets react to what looks increasingly likely. The FTSE may well test 6000 today and sterling might come under some pressure.
So far, however, sterling is moving by tiny amounts. If the markets yawn then this is indeed all over and Remain's last cannon will be spiked.
You keep sensible company.
Not because of investments, but on account of the serious disruption (let's not call it havoc) that would be caused by a Leave vote. Sterling, schmerling. The EU is intertwined to such a tremendous degree in our society that to unwind it in one fell swoop would be reckless.
And at the end of it, would we be able to say: "HA! - it feels much freer than it did?"
Of course we wouldn't. Our pesky governments would be falling over themselves to put us back to almost exactly where we were in the status quo ante. But perforce in a worse position as a non-EU member.
Sadly, David, your desire for freedom for kettle makers, is, and woud be sadly misguided.
You are grossly exaggerating. On the 24th we will still be subject to EU law. When we leave the EU laws already passed will continue to apply until such time as our government changes them. They will at last have the freedom to do so and there are a number of changes I hope they make but it will be selective. As a lawyer I anticipate having to refer to EU based regulations and statutes for the rest of my career.
Grossly exaggerating to say there will be serious disruption? It's hardly the most hyperbolic claim to be made about Brexit. Plus if I were a Leaver I would certainly hope there would be serious disruption. Or else why on earth vote to Leave?
On the 24th of course we will be subject to EU law, right up until (if he invokes immediately) the 23rd of June 2018. But then we will have to extricate ourselves, based upon whatever deal we have negotiated. And that will cause serious disruption. And I'm not sure to what end, in practical terms.
Ipsos mori will be important they had Tories 5% ahead on April 30th 2015 closet than most others.
My guess is that Ipsos MORI will have 48/44 Remain, or thereabouts.
It would be interesting to know what would happen if you gave all the polsters results from the same set of interviews, how different would their results be as the results of their various filters and scalings and other data massaging.
Interesting point. I have been playing with the latest YouGov data and made three adjustments that reduces the Leave lead to between 2% and zero (from 8%).
1. Add in Northern Ireland and assume Remain is in the range 60-75%. This adds 1% to the Remain figure and reduces the lead by 2%.
2. Adjust for the DKs which are breaking 60/40 to Remain when pushed. Acknowledge turnout of DKs will be low (30%). This adds another 1% to the Remain figure and reduces the lead by another 2%.
3. Recognise that within each age group, the turnout of ABC1s is likely to be higher than C2DEs which introduces a bias in turnout to Remain in each age group (recognising that the turnout of young is likely to be much lower than that of old). This adds another 1%-2% to the Remain figure and reduces the lead by another 2%-4%.
Just playing.
I think your first two adjustments are more than fair. I think the third remains to be seen, the word coming in from the canvassers appears to suggest a stirring amongst the previously sofa-ridden "they are all just the same" brigade who see the opportunity to give the establishment a good kicking.
The one thing I haven't been clear on previously, which might have relevance here, is what actually happened to get the kippers first place in the last euro elections, were they being lent votes by people who usually vote for other parties, or did a large group of non-voters decide to go and vote for them ?
1. The polls being wrong is about the only hope Remain have. Because the mood in the country seems to back up the Leave position in the polls. All the media outlets delivering reportage from places expected to be Remain who look solidly Leave. The parties cropping themselves over what their activists are reporting in. It could be rogue polling g but it feels very real. 2. Events dear boy. If you're the Establishment and over 30 years you have bought the main parties so that they do your bidding, and suddenly some cretin offers a referendum and you might lose it, what do you do? Letting plebs vote to remove your power and authority isn't going to happen if you can stop it - democracy is Revolution, and you've worked very hard to quash democratic choice to prevent revolutionary votes against you.
I would love to know what the powers that be have up their sleeve - if anything - to rescue this.
Also remember Dave is at his best when his back is up against the wall.
You think that has showed the past few weeks? I'd say it has brought out the most vindictive, patronising, nasty element of an Old Etonian 'noblesse oblige' aristo you could wish to see. And this time he's been found out. The papers are gunning for him.
why do people have it in for OEs? The ones I know are typically humble and charming people. Not like Cameron at all.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
It looks like a Brexit win. So scary it's unbelievable. I know remain have been accused of using scare tactics, but what they have said is not the half of it. But then as an economist I'm in the unenviable position of understanding all this. We are facing the Perfect Storm.
Yes. It needed to be said twice.
It's so terrible the PM himself said it wouldn't be a problem last November, which is why all this bullshit about the ending of the world is not being taken seriously by the voters now.
It won't be the end of the world. It will cause a diminution in our wealth and will come at a significant opportunity cost. For those of us living here.
Fuck off Topping. If you can't come up with a better argument that me not being in the country at the moment, for reason beyond my control, despite by wife and children being in the UK permanently, really just don't bother answering.
Do as I say not as I do.
I have plenty of arguments with people I think are worth making arguments with. Not expats who tell us what they think best for the UK while living 5,000 miles away.
Almost all of whom see themselves as British and hope to return to the UK sometime soon, even if we call somewhere else home at the moment for a variety of reasons.
You will note he isn't even remotely critical of expats like Felix who regularly opine in strident terms, can't think why that might be.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Sterling is down a whopping 0.5% on average, a low point unseen since.....1 pm yesterday.
So far but London is yet to open. As I say, if the markets yawn Remain are in serious trouble. All the forecasts in the world by the alphabet soup of world bodies called upon are tested in the markets.
The FTSE 100 doesn't tell us much in reality because it makes so much of its money abroad and a weaker pound boosts profits. But the £ is something that people think they understand.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
Isn't that symptomatic of those who head Remain though?
To them, nations and democracy are a bit passé. Money, very definitely, is not.
It looks like a Brexit win. So scary it's unbelievable. I know remain have been accused of using scare tactics, but what they have said is not the half of it. But then as an economist I'm in the unenviable position of understanding all this. We are facing the Perfect Storm.
Yes. It needed to be said twice.
It's so terrible the PM himself said it wouldn't be a problem last November, which is why all this bullshit about the ending of the world is not being taken seriously by the voters now.
It won't be the end of the world. It will cause a diminution in our wealth and will come at a significant opportunity cost. For those of us living here.
Fuck off Topping. If you can't come up with a better argument that me not being in the country at the moment, for reason beyond my control, despite by wife and children being in the UK permanently, really just don't bother answering.
Do as I say not as I do.
I have plenty of arguments with people I think are worth making arguments with. Not expats who tell us what they think best for the UK while living 5,000 miles away.
Almost all of whom see themselves as British and hope to return to the UK sometime soon, even if we call somewhere else home at the moment for a variety of reasons.
You will note he isn't even remotely critical of expats like Felix who regularly opine in strident terms, can't think why that might be.
Because they agree with me and hence their distance from the UK gives them unique insight and perspective.
Remain still have a 11 lead on the economy, that is what did for Ed.
Was it not that and the rubbish leadership ratings? Cameron's ratings are dire, this is going to be close.
Yes and Dave and Osborne beat bojo and gove everyday of the week.
This is the second post from you today containing a factual error on polls. On the previous thread you stated that in the scots referendum ICM had YES 7 % ahead a week before the vote. The only sept 2014 poll with a YES lead was yougov and that was 2% on 6th sept 2014.
There was an ICM poll on 11th September with a 7 pt yes lead, it was a strange one though, unusually small sample size of 750
Remain still have a 11 lead on the economy, that is what did for Ed.
Was it not that and the rubbish leadership ratings? Cameron's ratings are dire, this is going to be close.
Yes and Dave and Osborne beat bojo and gove everyday of the week.
This is the second post from you today containing a factual error on polls. On the previous thread you stated that in the scots referendum ICM had YES 7 % ahead a week before the vote. The only sept 2014 poll with a YES lead was yougov and that was 2% on 6th sept 2014.
There was also an icm poll with yes 7% ahead. It was not widely reported.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
Isn't that symptomatic of those who head Remain though?
To them, nations and democracy are a bit passé. Money, very definitely, is not.
Nope. I am confident I live in a sovereign nation and think that for a large proportion of Leavers, the EU is a convenient scapegoat for one element or another of modern society that they dislike, but which they believe is out of their control to change.
It is indicative of the general "anti-establishment" mood. Hoping that somehow, somewhere, there is a "new politics". But there really isn't.
Leavers are idealists (nothing wrong with that); Remainers are pragmatists.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
I agree but the annual conference of those who love the EU was held in a telephone box in Leicester Square this year. This has been Remain's problem. Even Cameron admits the EU is frustrating and annoying. But when he says it will reform he is now faced with, "well, you tried that."
His deal was a big mistake. A promise of seeking future reform might have been more credible.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
Isn't that symptomatic of those who head Remain though?
To them, nations and democracy are a bit passé. Money, very definitely, is not.
They're mostly not Marxists, so they should know that money is not the only thing that motivates people (obviously, it's one of the things that motivates people).
Remain still have a 11 lead on the economy, that is what did for Ed.
For someone professing to support Leave you sure post a lot of posts on the other side
I think one of the biggest mistakes Remain made was to correlate a General Election with the EU Ref. A terrible, terrible, mistake.
By the way, nunu, you sleep even less than me. Or do you live abroad?
I just don't have my blinkers on like most on here, this has really become an echo chamber. As for my sleeping patterns I am unemployed at the moment which fits the pattern of me voting leave. Most people (almost all) who have middle class professional jobs are going to vote remain in my experience. They are just not going to risk that. Its only people who don't have anything to lose who will vote out mainly.
I was speaking to a friend yesterday who is perplexed that I am voting Leave. "Don't you have any investments?" he asked.
This is not over yet. Project fear on the economy will continue to be played. Much will depend on how the markets react to what looks increasingly likely. The FTSE may well test 6000 today and sterling might come under some pressure.
So far, however, sterling is moving by tiny amounts. If the markets yawn then this is indeed all over and Remain's last cannon will be spiked.
You keep sensible company.
Not because of investments, but on account of the serious disruption (let's not call it havoc) that would be caused by a Leave vote. Sterling, schmerling. The EU is intertwined to such a tremendous degree in our society that to unwind it in one fell swoop would be reckless.
And at the end of it, would we be able to say: "HA! - it feels much freer than it did?"
Of course we wouldn't. Our pesky governments would be falling over themselves to put us back to almost exactly where we were in the status quo ante. But perforce in a worse position as a non-EU member.
Sadly, David, your desire for freedom for kettle makers, is, and woud be sadly misguided.
You are grossly exaggerating. On the 24th we will still be subject to EU law. When we leave the EU laws already passed will continue to apply until such time as our government changes them. They will at last have the freedom to do so and there are a number of changes I hope they make but it will be selective. As a lawyer I anticipate having to refer to EU based regulations and statutes for the rest of my career.
Quite so. We Remain a member of the EU on day one and for at least two years after.
When we do finally Leave what regulations we keep and ditch will be up to us, except to the extent we wish to trade with the EU (just as for the US and Japan)
This remains too close to call and as a Leave supporter I will not rest easier until 10pm on June 23rd because at least then the votes will be all in and we will soon learn the result.
I am wary of undecideds going on mass to Remain, of polling booth waverers and of the way certain news stories e.g. about sterling may sway voters too. I am also very wary of polls after the last General Election.
Nothing for Leave supporters should be taken for granted nor do I think it will be by campaign and volunteers alike. I will be leafleting again tonight and the campaigning more generally will go to the wire.
The political aftermath will be interesting. Cameron will be gone quickly and a leaver in his place. But at least the Tory vote will then be in line with a sizable chunk of their MPS and their new leader.
If it's Leave then Labour are in big trouble. A leadership challenge is being muttered about - but from the same Continuity New Labour faction who always mutter, and they are fanatical Remainers. Corbyn will have followed party policy and promoted Remain, but if as it looks a good number of party supporters (or more preciently *former* supporters) are Leavers then the party is further than ever from its voters with the activists trying to pull it even further away.
It looks like a Brexit win. So scary it's unbelievable. I know remain have been accused of using scare tactics, but what they have said is not the half of it. But then as an economist I'm in the unenviable position of understanding all this. We are facing the Perfect Storm.
Yes. It needed to be said twice.
It's so terrible the PM himself said it wouldn't be a problem last November, which is why all this bullshit about the ending of the world is not being taken seriously by the voters now.
It won't be the end of the world. It will cause a diminution in our wealth and will come at a significant opportunity cost. For those of us living here.
Fuck off Topping. If you can't come up with a better argument that me not being in the country at the moment, for reason beyond my control, despite by wife and children being in the UK permanently, really just don't bother answering.
Do as I say not as I do.
I have plenty of arguments with people I think are worth making arguments with. Not expats who tell us what they think best for the UK while living 5,000 miles away.
Almost all of whom see themselves as British and hope to return to the UK sometime soon, even if we call somewhere else home at the moment for a variety of reasons.
You will note he isn't even remotely critical of expats like Felix who regularly opine in strident terms, can't think why that might be.
Because they agree with me and hence their distance from the UK gives them unique insight and perspective.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
I agree but the annual conference of those who love the EU was held in a telephone box in Leicester Square this year. This has been Remain's problem. Even Cameron admits the EU is frustrating and annoying. But when he says it will reform he is now faced with, "well, you tried that."
His deal was a big mistake. A promise of seeking future reform might have been more credible.
If he had come back from Brussels with the promise of reform, in whatever area you think is critical, do you really think that the likes of @Richard_Tyndall and others on here would have said: "ah yes, great job, Dave. Finally a change in our relationship, we're looking forward to a new, bright future."?
Of course not: they would have been just as dismissive, just as sceptical of it ever happening as they are now of the current deal. Leave aside that I think the current deal is a good one, and fundamentally changes our relationship with the EU (if not the EU itself), any deal Dave brought back from Brussels was going to be dismissed as not-enforceable so can we stop with the "it was a bad deal, if only..." thing.
TSE stated above "I’m still confident of a Remain victory."
So am I. For one thing, the polls don't include NI and overseas-based voters, who will give a net addition of 1 million votes (approximately 3%) to the Remain side. The overseas-based voters are difficult to identify because they are registered in the constituencies where they used to live.
In addition, the trend to Leave now showing in the polls will encourage lukewarm Remain supporters to turn up and vote.
Finally, in the privacy of the polling booth, hesitant Leave supporters will take fright of the economic and other consequences of Leave (e.g. lack of free movement to mainland Europe) and hang onto nurse for fear of something worse.
Anyone confident of a Remain victory hasn't been paying attention.
I can still see to path to victory for Remain, but I don't see how a Remain supporter could be "confident" of victory.
Quite so. It could still be 53-47 to Remain, or 58-42 to Leave and any point in between. What is clear is that since purdah came into play, Remain has had a shocker of a campaign, and it has been fronted by a Prime Minister who is relying on Labour voters to save his bacon whilst insulting the intelligence of swathes of (what had been until now) his natural support.
Those of us branded "Little Englanders" - with its coded sneering of xenophobia, racism and knuckle-dragging stupidity - are not going to be quick to forget that. We are voting Leave because we believe that as in the best long-term interest of our country, Prime Minister. If only you had been as principled.
Sky are really going on the Sun frontpage. And noting that the Sun hasn't been wrong going back to the 70s - also 3/4 of their readers favour Brexit.
Did Osborne really threaten disability benefits last night? If so, that's beyond low.
The last thread was a hoot. Toys and prams spring to mind.
On a side note, when I first saw the Mars bar Euro adverts - I instantly associated it with Brexit. I wonder how many others are thinking the same thing.
I hope Cameron does keep to his pledge of butting out of the campaign for some days.It is clear to me Leave reckoned their key to victory was destroying his credibility and Cameron has been complicit in his own demise.Leave guessed rightly non-Tory voters weren't going to raise a hand to stop this so I think the opinion polls reflect this.With Cameron out of the way,Labour may at last be allowed to lead the Remain campaign.It's a very big week for Jezza. Irony of ironies,it could be Jeremy Corbyn who makes a vital intervention and settles the markets.It could be the start of a beautiful friendship.It may sound implausible but it could be Corbyn who is the star of the referendum,a man the markets and big business trusts.
Ipsos mori will be important they had Tories 5% ahead on April 30th 2015 closet than most others.
My guess is that Ipsos MORI will have 48/44 Remain, or thereabouts.
It would be interesting to know what would happen if you gave all the polsters results from the same set of interviews, how different would their results be as the results of their various filters and scalings and other data massaging.
Interesting point. I have been playing with the latest YouGov data and made three adjustments that reduces the Leave lead to between 2% and zero (from 8%).
1. Add in Northern Ireland and assume Remain is in the range 60-75%. This adds 1% to the Remain figure and reduces the lead by 2%.
2. Adjust for the DKs which are breaking 60/40 to Remain when pushed. Acknowledge turnout of DKs will be low (30%). This adds another 1% to the Remain figure and reduces the lead by another 2%.
3. Recognise that within each age group, the turnout of ABC1s is likely to be higher than C2DEs which introduces a bias in turnout to Remain in each age group (recognising that the turnout of young is likely to be much lower than that of old). This adds another 1%-2% to the Remain figure and reduces the lead by another 2%-4%.
Just playing.
May be I'm being dense but why would 1 and 2 reduce the lead by 2x the change? Aren't you adding new voters (hence increasing one side + the total) but not switching (which would have a double weight)
TSE stated above "I’m still confident of a Remain victory."
So am I. For one thing, the polls don't include NI and overseas-based voters, who will give a net addition of 1 million votes (approximately 3%) to the Remain side. The overseas-based voters are difficult to identify because they are registered in the constituencies where they used to live.
In addition, the trend to Leave now showing in the polls will encourage lukewarm Remain supporters to turn up and vote.
Finally, in the privacy of the polling booth, hesitant Leave supporters will take fright of the economic and other consequences of Leave (e.g. lack of free movement to mainland Europe) and hang onto nurse for fear of something worse.
My guess is that the net addition to Remain from Northern Ireland and overseas will be closer to 5-600,000.
Of course, a big chunk (most?) of those overseas votes from ex-pats will be postal votes, and many of those will already be in.
On the 24th of course we will be subject to EU law, right up until (if he invokes immediately) the 23rd of June 2018. But then we will have to extricate ourselves, based upon whatever deal we have negotiated. And that will cause serious disruption. And I'm not sure to what end, in practical terms.
Not if we repatriate EU law as part of the two-year leaving window, and then unwind it slowly, piece by piece, over the longer term This is a fairly standard process in decolonisation: India still has laws on its books from the period of the Raj because they work well enough not to require changing. This is all discussed in Flexcit, which the Civil Service are currently using as part of their contingency planning. However, the only legal disruption and uncertainty should come from the fact there's a government at Westminster deciding the laws under which we should live, which is a feature rather than a bug.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
I agree but the annual conference of those who love the EU was held in a telephone box in Leicester Square this year. This has been Remain's problem. Even Cameron admits the EU is frustrating and annoying. But when he says it will reform he is now faced with, "well, you tried that."
His deal was a big mistake. A promise of seeking future reform might have been more credible.
If he had come back from Brussels with the promise of reform, in whatever area you think is critical, do you really think that the likes of @Richard_Tyndall and others on here would have said: "ah yes, great job, Dave. Finally a change in our relationship, we're looking forward to a new, bright future."?
Of course not: they would have been just as dismissive, just as sceptical of it ever happening as they are now of the current deal. Leave aside that I think the current deal is a good one, and fundamentally changes our relationship with the EU (if not the EU itself), any deal Dave brought back from Brussels was going to be dismissed as not-enforceable so can we stop with the "it was a bad deal, if only..." thing.
Of course but my fairly strong suspicion is that Richard is not a swing voter in this referendum. Just a suspicion mind.
I for one might have been persuaded if there had been better protections for the City and a double majority rule for EZ and non EZ countries for example.
One thing stuck out for me, we pay a 7% 'tariff' as membership fee of the EU but those outside pat a 3 - 4% tariff to sell products into the EU. As the article says, a swindle larger than the PPI scandal
Ipsos mori will be important they had Tories 5% ahead on April 30th 2015 closet than most others.
My guess is that Ipsos MORI will have 48/44 Remain, or thereabouts.
It would be interesting to know what would happen if you gave all the polsters results from the same set of interviews, how different would their results be as the results of their various filters and scalings and other data massaging.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
I agree but the annual conference of those who love the EU was held in a telephone box in Leicester Square this year. This has been Remain's problem. Even Cameron admits the EU is frustrating and annoying. But when he says it will reform he is now faced with, "well, you tried that."
His deal was a big mistake. A promise of seeking future reform might have been more credible.
Forgetting any sort of reform and pitching the EU on its merits would have been the smart choice. Odd that is didn't occur to a supposed PR man.
The more realistic on here always knew he would come back from his renegotiation with a little bit of tinsel, and hence it was always going to disappoint. This was compounded by an idiotic attempt to wallpaper over the manifest shortfall in his achievements and sell the result of the renegotiation as a big deal, leading people to feel as if they were being taken for fools.
Never even suggesting a renegotiation and just saying we should stay in the EU for the following really good as positive reasons, whilst a sneering outrider like Osborne quietly briefed the press on a moderate and believable version of Project Fear would have left him in a much stronger position.
It looks like a Brexit win. So scary it's unbelievable. I know remain have been accused of using scare tactics, but what they have said is not the half of it. But then as an economist I'm in the unenviable position of understanding all this. We are facing the Perfect Storm.
Yes. It needed to be said twice.
It's so terrible the PM himself said it wouldn't be a problem last November, which is why all this bullshit about the ending of the world is not being taken seriously by the voters now.
It won't be the end of the world. It will cause a diminution in our wealth and will come at a significant opportunity cost. For those of us living here.
Fuck off Topping. If you can't come up with a better argument that me not being in the country at the moment, for reason beyond my control, despite by wife and children being in the UK permanently, really just don't bother answering.
Do as I say not as I do.
I have plenty of arguments with people I think are worth making arguments with. Not expats who tell us what they think best for the UK while living 5,000 miles away.
Almost all of whom see themselves as British and hope to return to the UK sometime soon, even if we call somewhere else home at the moment for a variety of reasons.
You will note he isn't even remotely critical of expats like Felix who regularly opine in strident terms, can't think why that might be.
The overseas vote will be interesting to watch, shame it won't be broken out as the registration and counting process doesn't allow for it.
Certainly out here there's been a lot of interest, people who didn't vote in the GE have been registering for postal votes. Demographics of Brits here are very interesting, 240,000 Brits in Dubai, almost all of whom are ABC1 and probably 60% Conservative, much younger than UK in general, no-one retires here and the majority expect to return to the UK a few years down the line.
From conversations I'd say about 75% Leave, most out here see the democracy argument, see the EU as inward-looking as opposed to international in mindset.
The demographics for EU-resident Brits will be completely different, as will be their votes in the referendum. Shame we won't see more statistics on this.
On the 24th of course we will be subject to EU law, right up until (if he invokes immediately) the 23rd of June 2018. But then we will have to extricate ourselves, based upon whatever deal we have negotiated. And that will cause serious disruption. And I'm not sure to what end, in practical terms.
Not if we repatriate EU law as part of the two-year leaving window, and then unwind it slowly, piece by piece, over the longer term This is a fairly standard process in decolonisation: India still has laws on its books from the period of the Raj because they work well enough not to require changing. This is all discussed in Flexcit, which the Civil Service are currently using as part of their contingency planning. However, the only legal disruption and uncertainty should come from the fact there's a government at Westminster deciding the laws under which we should live, which is a feature rather than a bug.
Yes, the "sticking plaster" approach: please be aware that everything will remain exactly the same as hitherto, pending future negotiations.
And then unpick at your (greater) leisure. Of course the unknown is the EU reaction.
Could be interesting. And as you say, the most disappointing thing for Leavers post Brexit will be the UK government (or craven traitors, as they no doubt will become known, regardless of persuasion).
Sky are really going on the Sun frontpage. And noting that the Sun hasn't been wrong going back to the 70s - also 3/4 of their readers favour Brexit.
Did Osborne really threaten disability benefits last night? If so, that's beyond low.
The last thread was a hoot. Toys and prams spring to mind.
On a side note, when I first saw the Mars bar Euro adverts - I instantly associated it with Brexit. I wonder how many others are thinking the same thing.
Now, is there any connection between Sky and The Sun?
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
I agree but the annual conference of those who love the EU was held in a telephone box in Leicester Square this year. This has been Remain's problem. Even Cameron admits the EU is frustrating and annoying. But when he says it will reform he is now faced with, "well, you tried that."
His deal was a big mistake. A promise of seeking future reform might have been more credible.
If he had come back from Brussels with the promise of reform, in whatever area you think is critical, do you really think that the likes of @Richard_Tyndall and others on here would have said: "ah yes, great job, Dave. Finally a change in our relationship, we're looking forward to a new, bright future."?
Of course not: they would have been just as dismissive, just as sceptical of it ever happening as they are now of the current deal. Leave aside that I think the current deal is a good one, and fundamentally changes our relationship with the EU (if not the EU itself), any deal Dave brought back from Brussels was going to be dismissed as not-enforceable so can we stop with the "it was a bad deal, if only..." thing.
Of course but my fairly strong suspicion is that Richard is not a swing voter in this referendum. Just a suspicion mind.
I for one might have been persuaded if there had been better protections for the City and a double majority rule for EZ and non EZ countries for example.
How is no banking union, and protection EZ vs non-EZ countries (short of double majority, but as we know there has been a test in the courts), inadequate protection for the City?
And slightly ironic, not to say curious, that you are leaving because you want better protection for the City when a Leave vote will harm the City perhaps more than any other sector.
Also remember Dave is at his best when his back is up against the wall.
You think that has showed the past few weeks? I'd say it has brought out the most vindictive, patronising, nasty element of an Old Etonian 'noblesse oblige' aristo you could wish to see. And this time he's been found out. The papers are gunning for him.
why do people have it in for OEs? The ones I know are typically humble and charming people. Not like Cameron at all.
It looks like a Brexit win. So scary it's unbelievable. I know remain have been accused of using scare tactics, but what they have said is not the half of it. But then as an economist I'm in the unenviable position of understanding all this. We are facing the Perfect Storm.
Yes. It needed to be said twice.
It's so terrible the PM himself said it wouldn't be a problem last November, which is why all this bullshit about the ending of the world is not being taken seriously by the voters now.
It won't be the end of the world. It will cause a diminution in our wealth and will come at a significant opportunity cost. For those of us living here.
Fuck off Topping. If you can't come up with a better argument that me not being in the country at the moment, for reason beyond my control, despite by wife and children being in the UK permanently, really just don't bother answering.
Do as I say not as I do.
I have plenty of arguments with people I think are worth making arguments with. Not expats who tell us what they think best for the UK while living 5,000 miles away.
Almost all of whom see themselves as British and hope to return to the UK sometime soon, even if we call somewhere else home at the moment for a variety of reasons.
You will note he isn't even remotely critical of expats like Felix who regularly opine in strident terms, can't think why that might be.
The overseas vote will be interesting to watch, shame it won't be broken out as the registration and counting process doesn't allow for it.
Certainly out here there's been a lot of interest, people who didn't vote in the GE have been registering for postal votes. Demographics of Brits here are very interesting, 240,000 Brits in Dubai, almost all of whom are ABC1 and probably 60% Conservative, much younger than UK in general, no-one retires here and the majority expect to return to the UK a few years down the line.
From conversations I'd say about 75% Leave, most out here see the democracy argument, see the EU as inward-looking as opposed to international in mindset.
The demographics for EU-resident Brits will be completely different, as will be their votes in the referendum. Shame we won't see more statistics on this.
Sky have it in for Cameron this morning - they've already used the Bullingdon photo as a backdrop. And two presenters have theatrically held up copies of the Sun.
It's most strange and entertaining. I've never seen anything like it.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
I agree but the annual conference of those who love the EU was held in a telephone box in Leicester Square this year. This has been Remain's problem. Even Cameron admits the EU is frustrating and annoying. But when he says it will reform he is now faced with, "well, you tried that."
His deal was a big mistake. A promise of seeking future reform might have been more credible.
If he had come back from Brussels with the promise of reform, in whatever area you think is critical, do you really think that the likes of @Richard_Tyndall and others on here would have said: "ah yes, great job, Dave. Finally a change in our relationship, we're looking forward to a new, bright future."?
Of course not: they would have been just as dismissive, just as sceptical of it ever happening as they are now of the current deal. Leave aside that I think the current deal is a good one, and fundamentally changes our relationship with the EU (if not the EU itself), any deal Dave brought back from Brussels was going to be dismissed as not-enforceable so can we stop with the "it was a bad deal, if only..." thing.
The likes of @Richard_Tyndall are not swing voters. I started out wanting to vote remain, but the deal was terrible and the campaign first tried to take me for a fool by pretending it wasn't. If they had given me a positive reason to stay in I could have been convinced - and millions like me as well.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
Couldn't agree more - price of everything and value of nothing.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
Isn't that symptomatic of those who head Remain though?
To them, nations and democracy are a bit passé. Money, very definitely, is not.
Nope. I am confident I live in a sovereign nation and think that for a large proportion of Leavers, the EU is a convenient scapegoat for one element or another of modern society that they dislike, but which they believe is out of their control to change.
It is indicative of the general "anti-establishment" mood. Hoping that somehow, somewhere, there is a "new politics". But there really isn't.
Leavers are idealists (nothing wrong with that); Remainers are pragmatists.
Utter bollocks. Remainers have been the idealists - believing a European super-state will work better than pesky national democracy. It is an ideal they have been striving towards without bothering the tiresome little people.
Leavers are the pragmatists. It is what is left, picking up the pieces when the EU Project has so patently failed.
TSE stated above "I’m still confident of a Remain victory."
So am I. For one thing, the polls don't include NI and overseas-based voters, who will give a net addition of 1 million votes (approximately 3%) to the Remain side. The overseas-based voters are difficult to identify because they are registered in the constituencies where they used to live.
In addition, the trend to Leave now showing in the polls will encourage lukewarm Remain supporters to turn up and vote.
Finally, in the privacy of the polling booth, hesitant Leave supporters will take fright of the economic and other consequences of Leave (e.g. lack of free movement to mainland Europe) and hang onto nurse for fear of something worse.
My guess is that the net addition to Remain from Northern Ireland and overseas will be closer to 5-600,000.
Of course, a big chunk (most?) of those overseas votes from ex-pats will be postal votes, and many of those will already be in.
I'm estimating about 700,000 people will vote in Northern Ireland, with a lead for Remain of 14-20%, 100-140,000 votes.
If one million ex-pats vote, then if they broke 70/30 for Remain, that would be worth 400,000 votes net.
This remains too close to call and as a Leave supporter I will not rest easier until 10pm on June 23rd because at least then the votes will be all in and we will soon learn the result.
I am wary of undecideds going on mass to Remain, of polling booth waverers and of the way certain news stories e.g. about sterling may sway voters too. I am also very wary of polls after the last General Election.
Nothing for Leave supporters should be taken for granted nor do I think it will be by campaign and volunteers alike. I will be leafleting again tonight and the campaigning more generally will go to the wire.
Sky are really going on the Sun frontpage. And noting that the Sun hasn't been wrong going back to the 70s - also 3/4 of their readers favour Brexit.
Did Osborne really threaten disability benefits last night? If so, that's beyond low.
The last thread was a hoot. Toys and prams spring to mind.
On a side note, when I first saw the Mars bar Euro adverts - I instantly associated it with Brexit. I wonder how many others are thinking the same thing.
Remain still have a 11 lead on the economy, that is what did for Ed.
Was it not that and the rubbish leadership ratings? Cameron's ratings are dire, this is going to be close.
Yes and Dave and Osborne beat bojo and gove everyday of the week.
This is the second post from you today containing a factual error on polls. On the previous thread you stated that in the scots referendum ICM had YES 7 % ahead a week before the vote. The only sept 2014 poll with a YES lead was yougov and that was 2% on 6th sept 2014.
There was an ICM poll on 11th September with a 7 pt yes lead, it was a strange one though, unusually small sample size of 750
Thank you. I will search for it later. But this Yougov survey is the one quoted as misleading people.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
I agree but the annual conference of those who love the EU was held in a telephone box in Leicester Square this year. This has been Remain's problem. Even Cameron admits the EU is frustrating and annoying. But when he says it will reform he is now faced with, "well, you tried that."
His deal was a big mistake. A promise of seeking future reform might have been more credible.
If he had come back from Brussels with the promise of reform, in whatever area you think is critical, do you really think that the likes of @Richard_Tyndall and others on here would have said: "ah yes, great job, Dave. Finally a change in our relationship, we're looking forward to a new, bright future."?
Of course not: they would have been just as dismissive, just as sceptical of it ever happening as they are now of the current deal. Leave aside that I think the current deal is a good one, and fundamentally changes our relationship with the EU (if not the EU itself), any deal Dave brought back from Brussels was going to be dismissed as not-enforceable so can we stop with the "it was a bad deal, if only..." thing.
The likes of @Richard_Tyndall are not swing voters. I started out wanting to vote remain, but the deal was terrible and the campaign first tried to take me for a fool by pretending it wasn't. If they had given me a positive reason to stay in I could have been convinced - and millions like me as well.
Yes my point about Richard is that (one of) his (many) criticisms is that the deal will be struck down anyway, and is worthless, etc. Echoed by many on here, and by Michael Gove also.
As for it being terrible, this is the bit I don't get. It codifies no ever closer union, gets us an opt-out from banking union, solves the euro issue with EZ vs non-EZ and has a bit of fluff on immigration and competitiveness.
It means that a UK govt can identify any piece of EU legislation and say: "EVER CLOSER UNION - NON!" We didn't have that clause and managed to not sign the Fiscal Compact, so imagine what we could not sign with it.
Or is it that you worry about what future governments might not not sign...?
Funnily enough Tory leavers never had a problem with disability benefit cuts in the past, but I guess that those were to help fund tax cuts for the best off, so they were OK. Next they'll be pretending they were opposed to the Bedroom Tax. :-)
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
Isn't that symptomatic of those who head Remain though?
To them, nations and democracy are a bit passé. Money, very definitely, is not.
Nope. I am confident I live in a sovereign nation and think that for a large proportion of Leavers, the EU is a convenient scapegoat for one element or another of modern society that they dislike, but which they believe is out of their control to change.
It is indicative of the general "anti-establishment" mood. Hoping that somehow, somewhere, there is a "new politics". But there really isn't.
Leavers are idealists (nothing wrong with that); Remainers are pragmatists.
Utter bollocks. Remainers have been the idealists - believing a European super-state will work better than pesky national democracy. It is an ideal they have been striving towards without bothering the tiresome little people.
Leavers are the pragmatists. It is what is left, picking up the pieces when the EU Project has so patently failed.
VoteLeave doing the right thing and guaranteeing all existing grants until the next election. Let manifesto commitments decide what should be axed.
Brexiteers keep telling us Vote Leave are not the Government and can't guarantee anything...
Brexiteers can disagree with each other. There are 4+ rival campaigns for god sake - get a grip.
I do wonder what will happen if, after a Leave vote, immigration stays at the current level for a while.
In the short term I expect Immigration will rise in the event of a LEAVE vote - we'll still be part of the EU, still subject to freedom of movement, if you were thinking of moving to Britain, you'd do it sooner rather than later.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
Isn't that symptomatic of those who head Remain though?
To them, nations and democracy are a bit passé. Money, very definitely, is not.
Nope. I am confident I live in a sovereign nation and think that for a large proportion of Leavers, the EU is a convenient scapegoat for one element or another of modern society that they dislike, but which they believe is out of their control to change.
It is indicative of the general "anti-establishment" mood. Hoping that somehow, somewhere, there is a "new politics". But there really isn't.
Leavers are idealists (nothing wrong with that); Remainers are pragmatists.
You have lost all semblance of perspective on this issue.
VoteLeave doing the right thing and guaranteeing all existing grants until the next election. Let manifesto commitments decide what should be axed.
Brexiteers keep telling us Vote Leave are not the Government and can't guarantee anything...
Brexiteers can disagree with each other. There are 4+ rival campaigns for god sake - get a grip.
I do wonder what will happen if, after a Leave vote, immigration stays at the current level for a while.
In the short term I expect Immigration will rise in the event of a LEAVE vote - we'll still be part of the EU, still subject to freedom of movement, if you were thinking of moving to Britain, you'd do it sooner rather than later.
Oh dear and think of the concomitant increase in all those babies born to EU parents. Some of them Romanian or Bulgarian, I dare say.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
I agree but the annual conference of those who love the EU was held in a telephone box in Leicester Square this year. This has been Remain's problem. Even Cameron admits the EU is frustrating and annoying. But when he says it will reform he is now faced with, "well, you tried that."
His deal was a big mistake. A promise of seeking future reform might have been more credible.
If he had come back from Brussels with the promise of reform, in whatever area you think is critical, do you really think that the likes of @Richard_Tyndall and others on here would have said: "ah yes, great job, Dave. Finally a change in our relationship, we're looking forward to a new, bright future."?
Of course not: they would have been just as dismissive, just as sceptical of it ever happening as they are now of the current deal. Leave aside that I think the current deal is a good one, and fundamentally changes our relationship with the EU (if not the EU itself), any deal Dave brought back from Brussels was going to be dismissed as not-enforceable so can we stop with the "it was a bad deal, if only..." thing.
The likes of @Richard_Tyndall are not swing voters. I started out wanting to vote remain, but the deal was terrible and the campaign first tried to take me for a fool by pretending it wasn't. If they had given me a positive reason to stay in I could have been convinced - and millions like me as well.
Yep! That was the turning point for most Conservative Leavers on here and probably elsewhere too. I remember on the day it happened everyone here saying WTF is he doing?
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
Isn't that symptomatic of those who head Remain though?
To them, nations and democracy are a bit passé. Money, very definitely, is not.
They're mostly not Marxists, so they should know that money is not the only thing that motivates people (obviously, it's one of the things that motivates people).
How much difference will it make if the pound and footsie fall?
Seen as good for exporters is a plus. Will it also be seen as giving pain and a means of giving spivs, bankers and the establishment a kicking more than a problem for the average man on the street?
VoteLeave doing the right thing and guaranteeing all existing grants until the next election. Let manifesto commitments decide what should be axed.
Brexiteers keep telling us Vote Leave are not the Government and can't guarantee anything...
Brexiteers can disagree with each other. There are 4+ rival campaigns for god sake - get a grip.
I do wonder what will happen if, after a Leave vote, immigration stays at the current level for a while.
In the short term I expect Immigration will rise in the event of a LEAVE vote - we'll still be part of the EU, still subject to freedom of movement, if you were thinking of moving to Britain, you'd do it sooner rather than later.
The net figure may also be swelled by those Brits who were planning to retire to Spain rethinking their decision in the light of pension/legislative uncertainty.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
I agree but the annual conference of those who love the EU was held in a telephone box in Leicester Square this year. This has been Remain's problem. Even Cameron admits the EU is frustrating and annoying. But when he says it will reform he is now faced with, "well, you tried that."
His deal was a big mistake. A promise of seeking future reform might have been more credible.
This. Like many people I stopped believing the eu could meaningfully reform. Bottom line is they do not think they have to, except to placate populists and stop the contagion from spreading. It makes it hard to believe any positive comments on reform that are made. Remain are saying either job done or we can still get more, and a lot of people just don't buy it.
And if a new offer was made now people think why didn't they offer it before, have to conclude its because they didn't want to - some think we have been given too much already - and so can they be trusted.
Fear is the best weapon, but it looks like enough people nay be ignoring it, for good and Ill, since Sone are ignoring there will be pain.
It looks like a Brexit win. So scary it's unbelievable. I know remain have been accused of using scare tactics, but what they have said is not the half of it. But then as an economist I'm in the unenviable position of understanding all this. We are facing the Perfect Storm.
Haha. I know senior economists who are smiling at your kind of doomongering.
Ipsos mori will be important they had Tories 5% ahead on April 30th 2015 closet than most others.
My guess is that Ipsos MORI will have 48/44 Remain, or thereabouts.
It would be interesting to know what would happen if you gave all the polsters results from the same set of interviews, how different would their results be as the results of their various filters and scalings and other data massaging.
Interesting point. I have been playing with the latest YouGov data and made three adjustments that reduces the Leave lead to between 2% and zero (from 8%).
1. Add in Northern Ireland and assume Remain is in the range 60-75%. This adds 1% to the Remain figure and reduces the lead by 2%.
2. Adjust for the DKs which are breaking 60/40 to Remain when pushed. Acknowledge turnout of DKs will be low (30%). This adds another 1% to the Remain figure and reduces the lead by another 2%.
3. Recognise that within each age group, the turnout of ABC1s is likely to be higher than C2DEs which introduces a bias in turnout to Remain in each age group (recognising that the turnout of young is likely to be much lower than that of old). This adds another 1%-2% to the Remain figure and reduces the lead by another 2%-4%.
Just playing.
May be I'm being dense but why would 1 and 2 reduce the lead by 2x the change? Aren't you adding new voters (hence increasing one side + the total) but not switching (which would have a double weight)
If you add new voters to one side (and also to the total) and that side's share goes up from say 48% to 49%, the other side's share must come down from 52% to 51% (because of the larger total and the fact that the two sides have to add to 100%)
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
I agree but the annual conference of those who love the EU was held in a telephone box in Leicester Square this year. This has been Remain's problem. Even Cameron admits the EU is frustrating and annoying. But when he says it will reform he is now faced with, "well, you tried that."
His deal was a big mistake. A promise of seeking future reform might have been more credible.
If he had come back from Brussels with the promise of reform, in whatever area you think is critical, do you really think that the likes of @Richard_Tyndall and others on here would have said: "ah yes, great job, Dave. Finally a change in our relationship, we're looking forward to a new, bright future."?
Of course not: they would have been just as dismissive, just as sceptical of it ever happening as they are now of the current deal. Leave aside that I think the current deal is a good one, and fundamentally changes our relationship with the EU (if not the EU itself), any deal Dave brought back from Brussels was going to be dismissed as not-enforceable so can we stop with the "it was a bad deal, if only..." thing.
The likes of @Richard_Tyndall are not swing voters. I started out wanting to vote remain, but the deal was terrible and the campaign first tried to take me for a fool by pretending it wasn't. If they had given me a positive reason to stay in I could have been convinced - and millions like me as well.
Yep! That was the turning point for most Conservative Leavers on here and probably elsewhere too. I remember on the day it happened everyone here saying WTF is he doing?
Yup, me too. After that was off the table, I thought about the whole issue afresh - and decided my heart and head agreed with other for Leave. My residual loyalty to Cameron vanished.
Tony Gallagher, Sun Ed says he wants a full week to push Brexit home.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
Isn't that symptomatic of those who head Remain though?
To them, nations and democracy are a bit passé. Money, very definitely, is not.
I think people who do not have to worry about finding enough to pay the bills, put food on the table and keep a roof over their families' heads often have the exquisite luxury of being able to contemplate the broader picture. For most people, though, money and having enough of it to enjoy a decent life is at the centre of things.
Working class leavers are not voting for Brexit because they buy into the abstract idea of sovereignty; instead, they believe it will lead to higher wages, better public services and cheaper housing. Remain has failed so dismally in winning them over because what Remain is essentially promising is what people have now. And what a lot of people have now is pretty darn crap.
I wonder if anyone has costed the commitments of Leave (who of course are not the govt, etc, etc), and put together the following (I haven't):
1) £350m per week 2) The NHS 3) Commitment to maintain various grants and payments
Or will that £350m be like Labour's Bankers' bonus tax, used many times over for a variety of causes.
There will be substantially more than 350m.
2.2bn a year is paid to the EU from the VAT we collect, thats another 40m+ per week
75% of all the money collected from imports to the UK from outside the EU is given to the EU, if we maintained initially the same tariffs we would get it, if not we would get all of whatever rate we decided to set. For example it is currently 9.8% on all cars imported and 32% on all wine imported from outside the EU.
You are double counting. The £350M per week figure includes custom duties, the VAT-based contribution and so on. It covers all our payments to the EU. There is no more to be had. And, of course, there isn't even that much to be had. We don't pay £350M per week to the EU. Our rebate means the actual figure is substantially lower even if we ignore grants the EU gives the UK.
Remain still have a 11 lead on the economy, that is what did for Ed.
For someone professing to support Leave you sure post a lot of posts on the other side
I think one of the biggest mistakes Remain made was to correlate a General Election with the EU Ref. A terrible, terrible, mistake.
By the way, nunu, you sleep even less than me. Or do you live abroad?
I just don't have my blinkers on like most on here, this has really become an echo chamber. As for my sleeping patterns I am unemployed at the moment which fits the pattern of me voting leave. Most people (almost all) who have middle class professional jobs are going to vote remain in my experience. They are just not going to risk that. Its only people who don't have anything to lose who will vote out mainly.
I was speaking to a friend yesterday who is perplexed that I am voting Leave. "Don't you have any investments?" he asked.
It looks like a Brexit win. So scary it's unbelievable. I know remain have been accused of using scare tactics, but what they have said is not the half of it. But then as an economist I'm in the unenviable position of understanding all this. We are facing the Perfect Storm.
Haha. I know senior economists who are smiling at your kind of doomongering.
We'll be fine. Chill.
Can you imagine if we had a "should the UK join the euro" referendum 15 years ago?
The same economists would have made the same crass predictions of the UK going down the pan if we don't join the euro.
Some of them are incompetent. Others know not to bite the hand that feeds them.
Funnily enough Tory leavers never had a problem with disability benefit cuts in the past, but I guess that those were to help fund tax cuts for the best off, so they were OK. Next they'll be pretending they were opposed to the Bedroom Tax. :-)
My view is that benefits are not well enough targeted. But until government learns to generalise from specifics, rather a top-down "policy" approach, they won't do it. I also think no-one should pay less than 35% tax, which is about what I pay, however many tax breaks are used to I'm probably not your average PBT
Seen on a London bus yesterday: a man wearing a T-shirt with the slogan "F*ck the FU" ( except there was no asterisk) - he looked as though he had done time. Hopefully the T-shirt was his own idea.
Have I said this before? (Probably) If REMAIN wins, it will do so on the back of London, Scottish and non-white votes. Middle England will simply not accept that. There will be a lot of trouble.
There's a reason why I keep saying that not only the Labour Party but representative democracy itself are ideas whose time has gone.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
I agree but the annual conference of those who love the EU was held in a telephone box in Leicester Square this year. This has been Remain's problem. Even Cameron admits the EU is frustrating and annoying. But when he says it will reform he is now faced with, "well, you tried that."
His deal was a big mistake. A promise of seeking future reform might have been more credible.
If he had come back from Brussels with the promise of reform, in whatever area you think is critical, do you really think that the likes of @Richard_Tyndall and others on here would have said: "ah yes, great job, Dave. Finally a change in our relationship, we're looking forward to a new, bright future."?
Of course not: they would have been just as dismissive, just as sceptical of it ever happening as they are now of the current deal. Leave aside that I think the current deal is a good one, and fundamentally changes our relationship with the EU (if not the EU itself), any deal Dave brought back from Brussels was going to be dismissed as not-enforceable so can we stop with the "it was a bad deal, if only..." thing.
The likes of @Richard_Tyndall are not swing voters. I started out wanting to vote remain, but the deal was terrible and the campaign first tried to take me for a fool by pretending it wasn't. If they had given me a positive reason to stay in I could have been convinced - and millions like me as well.
Yep! That was the turning point for most Conservative Leavers on here and probably elsewhere too. I remember on the day it happened everyone here saying WTF is he doing?
Yup, me too. After that was off the table, I thought about the whole issue afresh - and decided my heart and head agreed with other for Leave. My residual loyalty to Cameron vanished.
Tony Gallagher, Sun Ed says he wants a full week to push Brexit home.
Sounds like the Sun are going to throw their full weight behind Leave?
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
Isn't that symptomatic of those who head Remain though?
To them, nations and democracy are a bit passé. Money, very definitely, is not.
I think people who do not have to worry about finding enough to pay the bills, put food on the table and keep a roof over their families' heads often have the exquisite luxury of being able to contemplate the broader picture. For most people, though, money and having enough of it to enjoy a decent life is at the centre of things.
Working class leavers are not voting for Brexit because they buy into the abstract idea of sovereignty; instead, they believe it will lead to higher wages, better public services and cheaper housing. Remain has failed so dismally in winning them over because what Remain is essentially promising is what people have now. And what a lot of people have now is pretty darn crap.
I would imagine that many working class Leavers are voting on grounds of identity and sovereignty (as well as economics) in the same way that working class Unionists do in Northern Ireland.
Remain still have a 11 lead on the economy, that is what did for Ed.
For someone professing to support Leave you sure post a lot of posts on the other side
I think one of the biggest mistakes Remain made was to correlate a General Election with the EU Ref. A terrible, terrible, mistake.
By the way, nunu, you sleep even less than me. Or do you live abroad?
I just don't have my blinkers on like most on here, this has really become an echo chamber. As for my sleeping patterns I am unemployed at the moment which fits the pattern of me voting leave. Most people (almost all) who have middle class professional jobs are going to vote remain in my experience. They are just not going to risk that. Its only people who don't have anything to lose who will vote out mainly.
I was speaking to a friend yesterday who is perplexed that I am voting Leave. "Don't you have any investments?" he asked.
Because most voters 'have investments'
Jeez. I mean, jeeeeeeeez.
I'm glad it's just not just me who eye-rolled there.
It looks like a Brexit win. So scary it's unbelievable. I know remain have been accused of using scare tactics, but what they have said is not the half of it. But then as an economist I'm in the unenviable position of understanding all this. We are facing the Perfect Storm.
Haha. I know senior economists who are smiling at your kind of doomongering.
We'll be fine. Chill.
Can you imagine if we had a "should the UK join the euro" referendum 15 years ago?
The same economists would have made the same crass predictions of the UK going down the pan if we don't join the euro.
Some of them are incompetent. Others know not to bite the hand that feeds them.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
I agree but the annual conference of those who love the EU was held in a telephone box in Leicester Square this year. This has been Remain's problem. Even Cameron admits the EU is frustrating and annoying. But when he says it will reform he is now faced with, "well, you tried that."
His deal was a big mistake. A promise of seeking future reform might have been more credible.
If he had come back from Brussels with the promise of reform, in whatever area you think is critical, do you really think that the likes of @Richard_Tyndall and others on here would have said: "ah yes, great job, Dave. Finally a change in our relationship, we're looking forward to a new, bright future."?
Of course not: they would have been just as dismissive, just as sceptical of it ever happening as they are now of the current deal. Leave aside that I think the current deal is a good one, and fundamentally changes our relationship with the EU (if not the EU itself), any deal Dave brought back from Brussels was going to be dismissed as not-enforceable so can we stop with the "it was a bad deal, if only..." thing.
The likes of @Richard_Tyndall are not swing voters. I started out wanting to vote remain, but the deal was terrible and the campaign first tried to take me for a fool by pretending it wasn't. If they had given me a positive reason to stay in I could have been convinced - and millions like me as well.
Yep! That was the turning point for most Conservative Leavers on here and probably elsewhere too. I remember on the day it happened everyone here saying WTF is he doing?
Yup, me too. After that was off the table, I thought about the whole issue afresh - and decided my heart and head agreed with other for Leave. My residual loyalty to Cameron vanished.
Tony Gallagher, Sun Ed says he wants a full week to push Brexit home.
Yes, we both remember that after two well publicised all-nighters, we all thought the PM was going to come back with something like his Bloomberg speech outline, rather than (to think of a @TSE analogy), a little lube to help out as the EU bent us over and.....
I wonder if anyone has costed the commitments of Leave (who of course are not the govt, etc, etc), and put together the following (I haven't):
1) £350m per week 2) The NHS 3) Commitment to maintain various grants and payments
Or will that £350m be like Labour's Bankers' bonus tax, used many times over for a variety of causes.
There will be substantially more than 350m.
2.2bn a year is paid to the EU from the VAT we collect, thats another 40m+ per week
75% of all the money collected from imports to the UK from outside the EU is given to the EU, if we maintained initially the same tariffs we would get it, if not we would get all of whatever rate we decided to set. For example it is currently 9.8% on all cars imported and 32% on all wine imported from outside the EU.
You are double counting. The £350M per week figure includes custom duties, the VAT-based contribution and so on. It covers all our payments to the EU. There is no more to be had. And, of course, there isn't even that much to be had. We don't pay £350M per week to the EU. Our rebate means the actual figure is substantially lower even if we ignore grants the EU gives the UK.
And these are the people who keep assuring us that our economic future is secure outside the EU. Dear God, they can't even count properly!
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Pesky old BBC reporting news that you don't like. The other week they were reporting the high immigration numbers. Presumably that was less biased :-)
At the moment the £ is off about half a cent since midnight. It is not a particularly significant or large intraday change. But I suspect it will be presented as far more significant. If we get to a whole cent then the headlines will be lurid and some Leavers just might hesitate.
This is not over, not by a long chalk.
It seems to me that it is a strategic error for Remain to rely on almost purely materialistic arguments for their case.
Isn't that symptomatic of those who head Remain though?
To them, nations and democracy are a bit passé. Money, very definitely, is not.
I think people who do not have to worry about finding enough to pay the bills, put food on the table and keep a roof over their families' heads often have the exquisite luxury of being able to contemplate the broader picture. For most people, though, money and having enough of it to enjoy a decent life is at the centre of things.
Working class leavers are not voting for Brexit because they buy into the abstract idea of sovereignty; instead, they believe it will lead to higher wages, better public services and cheaper housing. Remain has failed so dismally in winning them over because what Remain is essentially promising is what people have now. And what a lot of people have now is pretty darn crap.
I would imagine that many working class Leavers are voting on grounds of identity and sovereignty (as well as economics) in the same way that working class Unionists do in Northern Ireland.
Those that were always Leave, yes. I doubt it applies to those who have joined the Leave camp in the last six weeks or so.
Remain still have a 11 lead on the economy, that is what did for Ed.
For someone professing to support Leave you sure post a lot of posts on the other side
I think one of the biggest mistakes Remain made was to correlate a General Election with the EU Ref. A terrible, terrible, mistake.
By the way, nunu, you sleep even less than me. Or do you live abroad?
I just don't have my blinkers on like most on here, this has really become an echo chamber. As for my sleeping patterns I am unemployed at the moment which fits the pattern of me voting leave. Most people (almost all) who have middle class professional jobs are going to vote remain in my experience. They are just not going to risk that. Its only people who don't have anything to lose who will vote out mainly.
I was speaking to a friend yesterday who is perplexed that I am voting Leave. "Don't you have any investments?" he asked.
Because most voters 'have investments'
Jeez. I mean, jeeeeeeeez.
I'm glad it's just not just me who eye-rolled there.
Remain still have a 11 lead on the economy, that is what did for Ed.
For someone professing to support Leave you sure post a lot of posts on the other side
I think one of the biggest mistakes Remain made was to correlate a General Election with the EU Ref. A terrible, terrible, mistake.
By the way, nunu, you sleep even less than me. Or do you live abroad?
I just don't have my blinkers on like most on here, this has really become an echo chamber. As for my sleeping patterns I am unemployed at the moment which fits the pattern of me voting leave. Most people (almost all) who have middle class professional jobs are going to vote remain in my experience. They are just not going to risk that. Its only people who don't have anything to lose who will vote out mainly.
I was speaking to a friend yesterday who is perplexed that I am voting Leave. "Don't you have any investments?" he asked.
Because most voters 'have investments'
Jeez. I mean, jeeeeeeeez.
As had been pointed out, they have pensions. And houses.
Comments
On the 24th of course we will be subject to EU law, right up until (if he invokes immediately) the 23rd of June 2018. But then we will have to extricate ourselves, based upon whatever deal we have negotiated. And that will cause serious disruption. And I'm not sure to what end, in practical terms.
The one thing I haven't been clear on previously, which might have relevance here, is what actually happened to get the kippers first place in the last euro elections, were they being lent votes by people who usually vote for other parties, or did a large group of non-voters decide to go and vote for them ?
1. The polls being wrong is about the only hope Remain have. Because the mood in the country seems to back up the Leave position in the polls. All the media outlets delivering reportage from places expected to be Remain who look solidly Leave. The parties cropping themselves over what their activists are reporting in. It could be rogue polling g but it feels very real.
2. Events dear boy. If you're the Establishment and over 30 years you have bought the main parties so that they do your bidding, and suddenly some cretin offers a referendum and you might lose it, what do you do? Letting plebs vote to remove your power and authority isn't going to happen if you can stop it - democracy is Revolution, and you've worked very hard to quash democratic choice to prevent revolutionary votes against you.
I would love to know what the powers that be have up their sleeve - if anything - to rescue this.
(Gets coat, scuttles off to work to avoid the sound of groaning).
The FTSE 100 doesn't tell us much in reality because it makes so much of its money abroad and a weaker pound boosts profits. But the £ is something that people think they understand.
Or perhaps not.
To them, nations and democracy are a bit passé. Money, very definitely, is not.
It is indicative of the general "anti-establishment" mood. Hoping that somehow, somewhere, there is a "new politics". But there really isn't.
Leavers are idealists (nothing wrong with that); Remainers are pragmatists.
His deal was a big mistake. A promise of seeking future reform might have been more credible.
When we do finally Leave what regulations we keep and ditch will be up to us, except to the extent we wish to trade with the EU (just as for the US and Japan)
This remains too close to call and as a Leave supporter I will not rest easier until 10pm on June 23rd because at least then the votes will be all in and we will soon learn the result.
I am wary of undecideds going on mass to Remain, of polling booth waverers and of the way certain news stories e.g. about sterling may sway voters too. I am also very wary of polls after the last General Election.
Nothing for Leave supporters should be taken for granted nor do I think it will be by campaign and volunteers alike. I will be leafleting again tonight and the campaigning more generally will go to the wire.
If it's Leave then Labour are in big trouble. A leadership challenge is being muttered about - but from the same Continuity New Labour faction who always mutter, and they are fanatical Remainers. Corbyn will have followed party policy and promoted Remain, but if as it looks a good number of party supporters (or more preciently *former* supporters) are Leavers then the party is further than ever from its voters with the activists trying to pull it even further away.
Of course not: they would have been just as dismissive, just as sceptical of it ever happening as they are now of the current deal. Leave aside that I think the current deal is a good one, and fundamentally changes our relationship with the EU (if not the EU itself), any deal Dave brought back from Brussels was going to be dismissed as not-enforceable so can we stop with the "it was a bad deal, if only..." thing.
Those of us branded "Little Englanders" - with its coded sneering of xenophobia, racism and knuckle-dragging stupidity - are not going to be quick to forget that. We are voting Leave because we believe that as in the best long-term interest of our country, Prime Minister. If only you had been as principled.
Did Osborne really threaten disability benefits last night? If so, that's beyond low.
The last thread was a hoot. Toys and prams spring to mind.
On a side note, when I first saw the Mars bar Euro adverts - I instantly associated it with Brexit. I wonder how many others are thinking the same thing.
Irony of ironies,it could be Jeremy Corbyn who makes a vital intervention and settles the markets.It could be the start of a beautiful friendship.It may sound implausible but it could be Corbyn who is the star of the referendum,a man the markets and big business trusts.
I for one might have been persuaded if there had been better protections for the City and a double majority rule for EZ and non EZ countries for example.
One thing stuck out for me, we pay a 7% 'tariff' as membership fee of the EU but those outside pat a 3 - 4% tariff to sell products into the EU. As the article says, a swindle larger than the PPI scandal
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/13/not-only-can-britain-can-leave-the-eu-and-have-access-to-the-sin/
Sunder Katwala Retweeted
John Rentoul
✔ @JohnRentoul A reminder from 16 months ago about the danger of reading too much into one day of polling http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/14/a-reminder-from-16-months-ago-about-the-danger-of-reading-too-much-into-one-day-of-polling/ …
The more realistic on here always knew he would come back from his renegotiation with a little bit of tinsel, and hence it was always going to disappoint. This was compounded by an idiotic attempt to wallpaper over the manifest shortfall in his achievements and sell the result of the renegotiation as a big deal, leading people to feel as if they were being taken for fools.
Never even suggesting a renegotiation and just saying we should stay in the EU for the following really good as positive reasons, whilst a sneering outrider like Osborne quietly briefed the press on a moderate and believable version of Project Fear would have left him in a much stronger position.
Certainly out here there's been a lot of interest, people who didn't vote in the GE have been registering for postal votes. Demographics of Brits here are very interesting, 240,000 Brits in Dubai, almost all of whom are ABC1 and probably 60% Conservative, much younger than UK in general, no-one retires here and the majority expect to return to the UK a few years down the line.
From conversations I'd say about 75% Leave, most out here see the democracy argument, see the EU as inward-looking as opposed to international in mindset.
The demographics for EU-resident Brits will be completely different, as will be their votes in the referendum. Shame we won't see more statistics on this.
And then unpick at your (greater) leisure. Of course the unknown is the EU reaction.
Could be interesting. And as you say, the most disappointing thing for Leavers post Brexit will be the UK government (or craven traitors, as they no doubt will become known, regardless of persuasion).
And slightly ironic, not to say curious, that you are leaving because you want better protection for the City when a Leave vote will harm the City perhaps more than any other sector.
It's most strange and entertaining. I've never seen anything like it.
Leavers are the pragmatists. It is what is left, picking up the pieces when the EU Project has so patently failed.
If one million ex-pats vote, then if they broke 70/30 for Remain, that would be worth 400,000 votes net.
This is nine days.
As for it being terrible, this is the bit I don't get. It codifies no ever closer union, gets us an opt-out from banking union, solves the euro issue with EZ vs non-EZ and has a bit of fluff on immigration and competitiveness.
It means that a UK govt can identify any piece of EU legislation and say: "EVER CLOSER UNION - NON!" We didn't have that clause and managed to not sign the Fiscal Compact, so imagine what we could not sign with it.
Or is it that you worry about what future governments might not not sign...?
Are you saying they are dishonest?
Seen as good for exporters is a plus. Will it also be seen as giving pain and a means of giving spivs, bankers and the establishment a kicking more than a problem for the average man on the street?
And if a new offer was made now people think why didn't they offer it before, have to conclude its because they didn't want to - some think we have been given too much already - and so can they be trusted.
Fear is the best weapon, but it looks like enough people nay be ignoring it, for good and Ill, since Sone are ignoring there will be pain.
We'll be fine. Chill.
Well done Sunil!
Tony Gallagher, Sun Ed says he wants a full week to push Brexit home.
Working class leavers are not voting for Brexit because they buy into the abstract idea of sovereignty; instead, they believe it will lead to higher wages, better public services and cheaper housing. Remain has failed so dismally in winning them over because what Remain is essentially promising is what people have now. And what a lot of people have now is pretty darn crap.
Mr. Topping, I couldn't quite believe it. Who knew the power of Dr. Prasannan?
Apologies for raising this yet again but I didn't receive any response yesterday, and it would be gratefully received:
MikeK is unable to post. He isn't banned, however, and some moderator assistance to resolve whatever the problem is would be very welcome.
Jeez. I mean, jeeeeeeeez.
@AGKD123: This piece by @TSEofPB contains the greatest closing paragraph in the history of political writing http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/06/14/a-reminder-from-16-months-ago-about-the-danger-of-reading-too-much-into-one-day-of-polling/
The same economists would have made the same crass predictions of the UK going down the pan if we don't join the euro.
Some of them are incompetent. Others know not to bite the hand that feeds them.
And we the people of Britain know better.
Have I said this before? (Probably) If REMAIN wins, it will do so on the back of London, Scottish and non-white votes. Middle England will simply not accept that. There will be a lot of trouble.
There's a reason why I keep saying that not only the Labour Party but representative democracy itself are ideas whose time has gone.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2016/jun/14/labour-supporters-brexit-stoke-on-trent-eu-referendum-video?CMP=share_btn_tw
Oh, and tampons. Don't forget the tampons!
16 months ≠ 9 days.
Yeah. I don't think he was referring to those those, do you now?
I mean, jeez, most people are struggling to make ends meet and are up to their fontanelle in debt.
On the day he was born the Americans presented a plan to place all nuclear weapons under UN control. The Soviets vetoed it.
Also on that day, the inventor of television, Logie Baird, died..