@OldKingCole If Leave win, those who sought it need to be left to pursue it to its logical conclusion. There can be no arguments about stabs in the backs or cheating the British public.
Yes, it would probably be grim, but the public are entitled to have their vote honoured.
Agree entirely - the consequences for the UK would be even grimmer than LEAVEing (which I think will be a bit grim, but we'll kbo) if MPs turned round and said 'Thanks for that, we're ignoring it'. The question has been put, the answer must be respected. If it is LEAVE I suspect Cameron will invoke Article 50 before the men in grey suits get to Downing Street.
There is a basic problem though. A Leave vote shafts an establishment who had successfully bought and controlled all the options for government. Democracy didn't matter particularly as Labour/Tory/Coalition would continue policies favourable to them.
Now we have a significant chance of a Leave vote. They have lost control thanks to one of their own (Cameron) ineptly pledging a referendum in the first place then leading a remain campaign promising the murder of the first born male child in every household should we vote to leave.
Democracy is revolution. They know that - which is why they bought it. I suspect that losing control in this way won't be acceptable to them. So either something seismic to change minds in this last week, or a shock vote when the results are "counted"* or they simply declare the result advisory only as suggested and carry on as normal.
Yes, that would provoke people on the streets. In another country thats where the army would be ordered in. This is Britain. They only planned a coup in the 70s they didn't actually do it. How far will a desperate elite go to not lose control...?
*I will be at my local count next Thursday evening doing my usual count agent role. I expect not to see shenanigans
As someone who is voting leave there is one thing that worries me greatly and that is the possible super influx of EU citizens into the UK ahead of any new controls that may be put into play. It could dwarf what has happened over the last 5 years. Would temporary restrictions be put in place pending new rules?
I don't think they could be, legally.
And I don't think that most would be immigrants think that way. There might be a small uptick, but the market will balance.
@bbclaurak: At Corbyn event, just been speaking to dep leader Tom Watson - he tells me there should be controls on freedom of movement for EU migrants
@bbclaurak: Watson-voters been 'telling us for a long time' party needs to do more on immigration, suggests any future govt need to curb freedom of movt
A GE could see Brexit Tories arguing for EFTA/EEA on economic grounds, and Labour arguing for withdrawal to stop free movement
Buy Corbyn...
But Cameron told us all free movement was non-negotiable within the EU.
So it's basically bullshit unless Corbyn and Watson leave the EU.
This site is starting to remind me of M.A.S.H. Bombs going off everywhere with Rod Crosby wandering through the craters trying to devise a new hairstyle for Trump
The fetishising of Trump is really quite odd. This is a betting site and his poll ratings have been on the slide since late May.
@bbclaurak: At Corbyn event, just been speaking to dep leader Tom Watson - he tells me there should be controls on freedom of movement for EU migrants
@bbclaurak: Watson-voters been 'telling us for a long time' party needs to do more on immigration, suggests any future govt need to curb freedom of movt
A GE could see Brexit Tories arguing for EFTA/EEA on economic grounds, and Labour arguing for withdrawal to stop free movement
Buy Corbyn...
But Cameron told us all free movement was non-negotiable within the EU.
So it's basically bullshit unless Corbyn and Watson leave the EU.
We're about to do that for them. So far the signs are that Labour is thinking more strategically than Vote Leave, which is only thinking about destroying Cameron. If there's an early GE I wouldn't bet on Boris.
No, I think Brexit is now a done deal. With Miliband I never once thought that the nation actually wanted him to reign over us. Brexit has a different feel entirely - it's like a giant tentacled monster sucking its lifeblood from a whole range of different hosts. Currently throughout civilisation the masses are flirting with mavericks and danger. Brexit is just the British version of this phenomenon. Remain's only hope is that respondents are venting their spleen to the pollsters but in the sanctity of the polling booth will calm down and opt for the quiet life, but this is probably grasping at straws.
I do wish everyone would calm down.
Nothing is a 'done deal', and anything can happen.
Besides which I do think quite a few AB Leavers will bottle it in the polling booth (not me - I think we'd be treated appallingly by the EU if we now stayed)
@OldKingCole If Leave win, those who sought it need to be left to pursue it to its logical conclusion. There can be no arguments about stabs in the backs or cheating the British public.
Yes, it would probably be grim, but the public are entitled to have their vote honoured.
Agree entirely - the consequences for the UK would be even grimmer than LEAVEing (which I think will be a bit grim, but we'll kbo) if MPs turned round and said 'Thanks for that, we're ignoring it'. The question has been put, the answer must be respected. If it is LEAVE I suspect Cameron will invoke Article 50 before the men in grey suits get to Downing Street.
There is a basic problem though. A Leave vote shafts an establishment who had successfully bought and controlled all the options for government. Democracy didn't matter particularly as Labour/Tory/Coalition would continue policies favourable to them.
Now we have a significant chance of a Leave vote. They have lost control thanks to one of their own (Cameron) ineptly pledging a referendum in the first place then leading a remain campaign promising the murder of the first born male child in every household should we vote to leave.
Democracy is revolution. They know that - which is why they bought it. I suspect that losing control in this way won't be acceptable to them. So either something seismic to change minds in this last week, or a shock vote when the results are "counted"* or they simply declare the result advisory only as suggested and carry on as normal.
Yes, that would provoke people on the streets. In another country thats where the army would be ordered in. This is Britain. They only planned a coup in the 70s they didn't actually do it. How far will a desperate elite go to not lose control...?
*I will be at my local count next Thursday evening doing my usual count agent role. I expect not to see shenanigans
@bbclaurak: At Corbyn event, just been speaking to dep leader Tom Watson - he tells me there should be controls on freedom of movement for EU migrants
@bbclaurak: Watson-voters been 'telling us for a long time' party needs to do more on immigration, suggests any future govt need to curb freedom of movt
A GE could see Brexit Tories arguing for EFTA/EEA on economic grounds, and Labour arguing for withdrawal to stop free movement
Buy Corbyn...
But Cameron told us all free movement was non-negotiable within the EU.
So it's basically bullshit unless Corbyn and Watson leave the EU.
We're about to do that for them. So far the signs are that Labour is thinking more strategically than Vote Leave, which is only thinking about destroying Cameron. If there's an early GE I wouldn't bet on Boris.
No need for an early GE. The Tory Party controls an absolute majority of the Commons and a Tory Leadership Election will be an alternative to a General Election.
@OldKingCole If Leave win, those who sought it need to be left to pursue it to its logical conclusion. There can be no arguments about stabs in the backs or cheating the British public.
Yes, it would probably be grim, but the public are entitled to have their vote honoured.
Agree entirely - the consequences for the UK would be even grimmer than LEAVEing (which I think will be a bit grim, but we'll kbo) if MPs turned round and said 'Thanks for that, we're ignoring it'. The question has been put, the answer must be respected. If it is LEAVE I suspect Cameron will invoke Article 50 before the men in grey suits get to Downing Street.
(Cameron) ineptly pledging a referendum in the first place
I think Cameron's true ineptness was on the Immigration pledge - promising to control something he couldn't - either in or out of the EU - as unless he imposes exit permits on Britons he can't control emigration, so going after a net migration figure is, and will remain, for the birds.
On the EU he was right to promise a referendum - it was about time - but he grossly oversold his 'renegotiation' which has damaged his credibility.
@bbclaurak: At Corbyn event, just been speaking to dep leader Tom Watson - he tells me there should be controls on freedom of movement for EU migrants
@bbclaurak: Watson-voters been 'telling us for a long time' party needs to do more on immigration, suggests any future govt need to curb freedom of movt
A GE could see Brexit Tories arguing for EFTA/EEA on economic grounds, and Labour arguing for withdrawal to stop free movement
Buy Corbyn...
But Cameron told us all free movement was non-negotiable within the EU.
So it's basically bullshit unless Corbyn and Watson leave the EU.
We're about to do that for them. So far the signs are that Labour is thinking more strategically than Vote Leave, which is only thinking about destroying Cameron. If there's an early GE I wouldn't bet on Boris.
No need for an early GE. The Tory Party controls an absolute majority of the Commons and a Tory Leadership Election will be an alternative to a General Election.
Ok, then suppose there's a GE in 2020. If the immigration numbers have not collapsed post-Brexit, the Tories will lose in a landslide.
Labour have played this well I think. Same strategy as Teresa May. Limp support for in, damning with faint praise, keeping well out of Cameron's toxic campaign.
They've done it (I think) because of a fear of repeating the Indyref, where they won the referendum at the expense of obliterating themselves electorally.
Now they've come out and explicitly stabbed Cameron in the back on immigration, and when Remain win (which I'm still convinced they will), they can therefore avoid the flood of acrimony that will result.
@OldKingCole If Leave win, those who sought it need to be left to pursue it to its logical conclusion. There can be no arguments about stabs in the backs or cheating the British public.
Yes, it would probably be grim, but the public are entitled to have their vote honoured.
Agree entirely - the consequences for the UK would be even grimmer than LEAVEing (which I think will be a bit grim, but we'll kbo) if MPs turned round and said 'Thanks for that, we're ignoring it'. The question has been put, the answer must be respected. If it is LEAVE I suspect Cameron will invoke Article 50 before the men in grey suits get to Downing Street.
(Cameron) ineptly pledging a referendum in the first place
I think Cameron's true ineptness was on the Immigration pledge - promising to control something he couldn't - either in or out of the EU - as unless he imposes exit permits on Britons he can't control emigration, so going after a net migration figure is, and will remain, for the birds.
On the EU he was right to promise a referendum - it was about time - but he grossly oversold his 'renegotiation' which has damaged his credibility.
I happily spent over £50k on a BMW and a Merc in my previous life. If it was 51k - would I change my choice = of course not.
It's an absurd argument. Those buying premium brands buy premium brands. Every white good in my house was Bosch.
Exactly, Miss P., and when buying an item a few percent on the price makes no sodding difference. I haven't bought French wine for years even though it carries no import duty. I buy wines from Chile, New Zealand, Australia and, occasionally, South Africa whose prices are higher than they need be because of the import duty. Value for money is the key.
On a tangent when I was working I had a very wealthy client who amongst his cars had a brand New Rolls Royce Phantom. Gordon Brown had just really wacked up vehicle excise duty on gas guzzlers to discourage their use. I asked my client if this higher duty had not deterred him from buying such a beast, he just laughed. £350,000 for the car, £50k p.a. for the bloke to drive it, £2k per service, so £450 VED was a spit in the ocean.
From my days supplying RR at Crewe ( Bentley now ), the alternative to a RR is not a Merc or BMW it's a yacht or another house.
Yup and my brother-in-law who works at the RR plant at Goodwood tells me they are still working flat out, mostly for clients in Russia and China.
He also tells me that the body presses come from Germany and they are having serious quality control issues. So much for vaunted German engineering.
Miss Vance, I think migration goes back a long way as a source of resentment. Labour opened the floodgates to rub the right's face in diversity, but it was mostly Labour voters worst affected.
Then we had Cameron's dubious promise.
Multi-culturalism as a concept was not exactly enhanced by the cover-up for a decade and a half of mass rape (and the racial aspect, for once, didn't go unreported).
I think all those things, as well as depressed wages and more demand for services driven by very high migration levels, have made it very difficult for Remain to get back any credibility.
A last minute Vow might work. It might piss people off if they think it's more lies.
Well it said it had to be a minimum of eight characters.
All joking aside with the level of entropy on that, it would be a good password.
Because it is a set phrase, rather than a sequence of independent or nearly-independent words, I'm not convinced it has as much entropy as all that.
Y'all can't use film titles, book titles, song lyrics, poems or even well known opening lines of books, nor memes. Snow White and the Seven Carlisle Dwarfs would be ok.
That's not answering my question. How can it possibly make sense for, say, cars to be imported from the US to the UK with zero tariff and then imported from the UK to the EU with zero tariff, but cars imported directly from the US to the EU to be subject to a 10% tariff?
That's not how tariffs work. There are re-export clauses (and percent of work created clauses) in the deals that Norway - for example has with the EU. It cannot import an Embrear train from Canada and then re-export it free of tariffs to the rest of the EU.
@bbclaurak: At Corbyn event, just been speaking to dep leader Tom Watson - he tells me there should be controls on freedom of movement for EU migrants
@bbclaurak: Watson-voters been 'telling us for a long time' party needs to do more on immigration, suggests any future govt need to curb freedom of movt
A GE could see Brexit Tories arguing for EFTA/EEA on economic grounds, and Labour arguing for withdrawal to stop free movement
Buy Corbyn...
But Cameron told us all free movement was non-negotiable within the EU.
So it's basically bullshit unless Corbyn and Watson leave the EU.
We're about to do that for them. So far the signs are that Labour is thinking more strategically than Vote Leave, which is only thinking about destroying Cameron. If there's an early GE I wouldn't bet on Boris.
No need for an early GE. The Tory Party controls an absolute majority of the Commons and a Tory Leadership Election will be an alternative to a General Election.
The Tory party has an absolute majority if they are one party. Before we got to the referendum campaign we had them having to retreat and uturn and even accept an amendment to the queens speech - a party with a majority on paper but not in practice.
And what can we look forward to post-referendum. Only a big win for Remain would settle this, and even then the scars would have run deep. As it is a narrow win for Remain (if they're lucky) to a big win for Leave (in which case Farage is finished as an irrelevance) will leave the Tory party split hard in two, both sides hating the other side, both sides dripping with each other's blood.
Cabinet ministers have gone on the media and said the PM and Chancellor are liars. That the treasury numbers are always wrong. That the FCO and Home Office have mislead us. These people are NOT going on the media in the autumn backing a budget - that the chancellor and the treasury assessments are the absolute gospel truth.
They had no effective majority before the campaign. Whichever camp takes command after Dave is gutted will have nothing like a majority. Its "make the mid-90s look like a cakewalk" until 2020. Or an election. Once all this is over, I'm getting my CLP ready for the latter.
'The gun-control debate could hit a sweet spot for Donald Trump. His position has appeal to a group that he needs to gain the White House — less educated white Democrats — without doing much to alienate traditionally Republican voters.
Mr. Trump made the issue a big part of his response to the mass shooting at an Orlando nightclub, saying that his probable opponent, Hillary Clinton, “wants to take away Americans’ guns” and promising to meet with the National Rifle Association “to discuss how to ensure Americans have the means to protect themselves in this age of terror.”
According to an Upshot analysis of Pew Research data, nearly half of white working-class Democrats think it’s more important to protect gun rights than to control gun ownership. That’s a larger percentage of Democratic voters than agree with Mr. Trump on many of the other issues that he stresses on the campaign trail.' http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/upshot/why-gun-control-probably-gives-donald-trump-an-edge.html?_r=0
No, I think Brexit is now a done deal. With Miliband I never once thought that the nation actually wanted him to reign over us. Brexit has a different feel entirely - it's like a giant tentacled monster sucking its lifeblood from a whole range of different hosts. Currently throughout civilisation the masses are flirting with mavericks and danger. Brexit is just the British version of this phenomenon. Remain's only hope is that respondents are venting their spleen to the pollsters but in the sanctity of the polling booth will calm down and opt for the quiet life, but this is probably grasping at straws.
Besides which I do think quite a few AB Leavers will bottle it in the polling booth (not me - I think we'd be treated appallingly by the EU if we now stayed)
I think the opposite. I mentioned c 4 weeks ago my theory of Shy Leave. Now it's becoming acceptable to be a Brexiteer they are being bolder but there are still a lot of people I reckon who don't want to come across as in anyway racist to anyone online or on a phone.
@OldKingCole If Leave win, those who sought it need to be left to pursue it to its logical conclusion. There can be no arguments about stabs in the backs or cheating the British public.
Yes, it would probably be grim, but the public are entitled to have their vote honoured.
Agree entirely - the consequences for the UK would be even grimmer than LEAVEing (which I think will be a bit grim, but we'll kbo) if MPs turned round and said 'Thanks for that, we're ignoring it'. The question has been put, the answer must be respected. If it is LEAVE I suspect Cameron will invoke Article 50 before the men in grey suits get to Downing Street.
(Cameron) ineptly pledging a referendum in the first place
I think Cameron's true ineptness was on the Immigration pledge - promising to control something he couldn't - either in or out of the EU - as unless he imposes exit permits on Britons he can't control emigration, so going after a net migration figure is, and will remain, for the birds.
On the EU he was right to promise a referendum - it was about time - but he grossly oversold his 'renegotiation' which has damaged his credibility.
The first "ineptness" got him No. 10, and the second one got him a majority.
I happily spent over £50k on a BMW and a Merc in my previous life. If it was 51k - would I change my choice = of course not.
It's an absurd argument. Those buying premium brands buy premium brands. Every white good in my house was Bosch.
Exactly, Miss P., and when buying an item a few percent on the price makes no sodding difference. I haven't bought French wine for years even though it carries no import duty. I buy wines from Chile, New Zealand, Australia and, occasionally, South Africa whose prices are higher than they need be because of the import duty. Value for money is the key.
On a tangent when I was working I had a very wealthy client who amongst his cars had a brand New Rolls Royce Phantom. Gordon Brown had just really wacked up vehicle excise duty on gas guzzlers to discourage their use. I asked my client if this higher duty had not deterred him from buying such a beast, he just laughed. £350,000 for the car, £50k p.a. for the bloke to drive it, £2k per service, so £450 VED was a spit in the ocean.
From my days supplying RR at Crewe ( Bentley now ), the alternative to a RR is not a Merc or BMW it's a yacht or another house.
Yup and my brother-in-law who works at the RR plant at Goodwood tells me they are still working flat out, mostly for clients in Russia and China.
He also tells me that the body presses come from Germany and they are having serious quality control issues. So much for vaunted German engineering.
Sam Gould, the UKIP candidate, and a canny operator, has uploaded a vid of the police moving him on from the town centre. He also video'd them not moving Labour, Wayne David and the Remain camp on.
I'm sure it is edited to suit, but Gould is certainly adept at self-promotion. He's the guy who brought the snowblower (which the kids loved) into Caerphilly town centre Christmastime and the one who brought trouble by projecting a massive UKIP poster onto Caerphilly castle.
He uses social media well too, and is getting right up Labour's nose.
No, I am responding to your claim that there would be no trade war because we import more of their cars than they import of ours. I don't get that logic, as what you are actually saying is that buyers of cars in the UK would be more negatively affected by a trade war than those in the EU. That surely gives the EU the upper hand.
No I think this is incorrect. Pressure for reducing tariffs on non essential items such as German cars is not usually driven by the consumer but by the producer. If a BMW costs 10% more than it did a year before most purchasers will not think 'bloody tariffs' they will simply weigh up what they are willing to pay and maybe look for a cheaper alternative.
Trade wars on non essentials hurt tend to get the reaction from producers not consumers.
Perhaps we should have a thread soon on just what might possibly happen following a LEAVE victory -
Would Cameron indicate his intention to (a) resign as PM and Party Leader asap or (b) would he instead simply attempt to brazen it out ?
If (a), Would Osborne and possibly others also notify their intention to resign from the Cabinet? How many Tory MPs would resign the party whip? Who and how many would challenge for the Tory Leadership? Who would win?
If (b) Would there be a formal challenge for the leadership, supported by the required number of Tory MPs? Who would mount such a challenge? Would Cameron emerge as the winner? If not, who would be the next PM?
Sam Gould, the UKIP candidate, and a canny operator, has uploaded a vid of the police moving him on from the town centre. He also video'd them not moving Labour, Wayne David and the Remain camp on.
I'm sure it is edited to suit, but Gould is certainly adept at self-promotion. He's the guy who brought the snowblower (which the kids loved) into Caerphilly town centre Christmastime and the one who brought trouble by projecting a massive UKIP poster onto Caerphilly castle.
He uses social media well too, and is getting right up Labour's nose.
It's a great video, I shared it - he's a super media performer.
It's as though everything and everyone is suddenly alien. I don't care less whether a Leave vote makes me personally richer or poorer. It'll do something infinitely more depressing and bleak. It'll made me doubt the inate values of my fellow countrymen which for all our petty differences is something I've never done before.
Do you feel the same about those from New Zealand, or Japan, or indeed any other country that hasn't joined with a larger neighbour, and yet strangely seems to be doing just fine, and mostly have no more than the usual complement of full of swivel-eyed bigots.
No, I think Brexit is now a done deal. With Miliband I never once thought that the nation actually wanted him to reign over us. Brexit has a different feel entirely - it's like a giant tentacled monster sucking its lifeblood from a whole range of different hosts. Currently throughout civilisation the masses are flirting with mavericks and danger. Brexit is just the British version of this phenomenon. Remain's only hope is that respondents are venting their spleen to the pollsters but in the sanctity of the polling booth will calm down and opt for the quiet life, but this is probably grasping at straws.
Besides which I do think quite a few AB Leavers will bottle it in the polling booth (not me - I think we'd be treated appallingly by the EU if we now stayed)
I think the opposite. I mentioned c 4 weeks ago my theory of Shy Leave. Now it's becoming acceptable to be a Brexiteer they are being bolder but there are still a lot of people I reckon who don't want to come across as in anyway racist to anyone online or on a phone.
But in that dark secret little booth ...
I hope you're right but i'm not getting excited until the results are well in.
Leave are heavily reliant on non-traditional voting groups and their voting coalition holding solid for the next 9 days, and it won't take much to swing it. The polls could recalibrate again to provide a minuscule Remain win.
Leave needs to provide maximum reassurance and exude professionalism now.
Remain still have a 11 lead on the economy, that is what did for Ed.
Was it not that and the rubbish leadership ratings? Cameron's ratings are dire, this is going to be close.
Yes and Dave and Osborne beat bojo and gove everyday of the week.
This is the second post from you today containing a factual error on polls. On the previous thread you stated that in the scots referendum ICM had YES 7 % ahead a week before the vote. The only sept 2014 poll with a YES lead was yougov and that was 2% on 6th sept 2014.
There was an ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph a few days before the Referendum with figures of 48% Yes 42% No 10% DK.
@OldKingCole If Leave win, those who sought it need to be left to pursue it to its logical conclusion. There can be no arguments about stabs in the backs or cheating the British public.
Yes, it would probably be grim, but the public are entitled to have their vote honoured.
Agree entirely - the consequences for the UK would be even grimmer than LEAVEing (which I think will be a bit grim, but we'll kbo) if MPs turned round and said 'Thanks for that, we're ignoring it'. The question has been put, the answer must be respected. If it is LEAVE I suspect Cameron will invoke Article 50 before the men in grey suits get to Downing Street.
(Cameron) ineptly pledging a referendum in the first place
I think Cameron's true ineptness was on the Immigration pledge - promising to control something he couldn't - either in or out of the EU - as unless he imposes exit permits on Britons he can't control emigration, so going after a net migration figure is, and will remain, for the birds.
On the EU he was right to promise a referendum - it was about time - but he grossly oversold his 'renegotiation' which has damaged his credibility.
The first "ineptness" got him No. 10, and the second one got him a majority.
Precisely. He went for the short-term win at the expense of his long-term legacy. Almost everything he has said and done since becoming Tory leader has made it harder for him to win this vote, the most important of his life (as he tells us himself).
Laura Kuenssberg Verified account @bbclaurak At Corbyn event, just been speaking to dep leader Tom Watson - he tells me there should be controls on freedom of movement for EU migrants
You can cover the draw and the Welsh win Thursday and profit whatever happens unless England win. Both the draw and the Welsh victory are way too long IMO.
As an England fan, and a bettor who always bets against his own preferred outcome, I have taken this as a form of insurance, and for the value. If England beat Wales, I will be delighted to lose my stakes.
Betting against England with an English bookie is pretty much always value. Patriotic fans mean that sheer weight of money on England forces the price down.
So is the patriotic betting making the odds on REMAIN lower than would be implied by the referendum pollsters?
Brexiteers keep telling us how that is stifling trade...
Ask them what fraction of their sales are inside the EU compared to outside?
I know that McLaren just added a second production shift (250 skilled jobs!), their biggest markets are the US, Asia and the ME before Europe. They're heading for 4,000 cars made next year, can't keep up with demand. I had a go in one last week, fantastic car
The second hand dealers here order RRs from the factory for their showrooms, as the lead time is too long for most of the locals here to wait. Their problem is they have some very skilled and experienced people who just can't be trained up quickly enough. China is their biggest growth market by far.
Perhaps we should have a thread soon on just what might possibly happen following a LEAVE victory -
Would Cameron indicate his intention to (a) resign as PM and Party Leader asap or (b) would he instead simply attempt to brazen it out ?
If (a), Would Osborne and possibly others also notify their intention to resign from the Cabinet? How many Tory MPs would resign the party whip? Who and how many would challenge for the Tory Leadership? Who would win?
If (b) Would there be a formal challenge for the leadership, supported by the required number of Tory MPs? Who would mount such a challenge? Would Cameron emerge as the winner? If not, who would be the next PM?
I think Cameron would announce his intention to resign the morning after the vote (but would probably stay on as leader/PM while Tories have leadership contest)
Osborne would have to go immediately because it will need a new Chancellor to help restore calm to the markets - It can't be Osborne because he's been predicting all manner disaster if we vote LEAVE... No way could he calm the markets.
I happily spent over £50k on a BMW and a Merc in my previous life. If it was 51k - would I change my choice = of course not.
It's an absurd argument. Those buying premium brands buy premium brands. Every white good in my house was Bosch.
Exactly, Miss P., and when buying an item a few percent on the price makes no sodding difference. I haven't bought French wine for years even though it carries no import duty. I buy wines from Chile, New Zealand, Australia and, occasionally, South Africa whose prices are higher than they need be because of the import duty. Value for money is the key.
On a tangent when I was working I had a very wealthy client who amongst his cars had a brand New Rolls Royce Phantom. Gordon Brown had just really wacked up vehicle excise duty on gas guzzlers to discourage their use. I asked my client if this higher duty had not deterred him from buying such a beast, he just laughed. £350,000 for the car, £50k p.a. for the bloke to drive it, £2k per service, so £450 VED was a spit in the ocean.
From my days supplying RR at Crewe ( Bentley now ), the alternative to a RR is not a Merc or BMW it's a yacht or another house.
Yup and my brother-in-law who works at the RR plant at Goodwood tells me they are still working flat out, mostly for clients in Russia and China.
He also tells me that the body presses come from Germany and they are having serious quality control issues. So much for vaunted German engineering.
Laura Kuenssberg Verified account @bbclaurak At Corbyn event, just been speaking to dep leader Tom Watson - he tells me there should be controls on freedom of movement for EU migrants
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
Does the EU or the UK keep the import duty and also the VAT levied on imports?
VAT from imports goes to the host country, while 75% of the Common External Tariff goes to the EU. However, the total we pay includes the CET we collect, so you can't add it to the £350m (pre-rebate).
So currently the more we import from non EU countries, the more we pay to the EU as their 75% share of import duty.
No, I am responding to your claim that there would be no trade war because we import more of their cars than they import of ours. I don't get that logic, as what you are actually saying is that buyers of cars in the UK would be more negatively affected by a trade war than those in the EU. That surely gives the EU the upper hand.
No I think this is incorrect. Pressure for reducing tariffs on non essential items such as German cars is not usually driven by the consumer but by the producer. If a BMW costs 10% more than it did a year before most purchasers will not think 'bloody tariffs' they will simply weigh up what they are willing to pay and maybe look for a cheaper alternative.
Trade wars on non essentials hurt tend to get the reaction from producers not consumers.
I see it more as a calculation within an overall negotiation. Each side will be looking for the best deal and each side will have strong suits the other side needs to counter. One that Leavers clearly feel the UK has is that we import more than we export to the EU. However, that means British consumers could face price rises if tariffs occur. They won't want that. Therefore, tariffs leave the table, which leaves other stuff like being inside the single market, passporting for the City and so on. What does the UK then give up to ensure we keep these? And so on.
They have not been suspended or disqualified (yet). Essentially Uefa are sabre-rattling as their position is entirely the same as before: any more violence and you are out of the competition.
Still, it may have the desired effect of stopping their thugs doing it again.
You can cover the draw and the Welsh win Thursday and profit whatever happens unless England win. Both the draw and the Welsh victory are way too long IMO.
As an England fan, and a bettor who always bets against his own preferred outcome, I have taken this as a form of insurance, and for the value. If England beat Wales, I will be delighted to lose my stakes.
Betting against England with an English bookie is pretty much always value. Patriotic fans mean that sheer weight of money on England forces the price down.
So is the patriotic betting making the odds on REMAIN lower than would be implied by the referendum pollsters?
Reverting to the England vs Wales Euro '16 football game, I think England's odds of 1.6 are about right. Similar to the odds one might get if a top 4 Premier League side were playing a bottom 4 Premier league side on a neutral ground.
Perhaps we should have a thread soon on just what might possibly happen following a LEAVE victory -
Would Cameron indicate his intention to (a) resign as PM and Party Leader asap or (b) would he instead simply attempt to brazen it out ?
If (a), Would Osborne and possibly others also notify their intention to resign from the Cabinet? How many Tory MPs would resign the party whip? Who and how many would challenge for the Tory Leadership? Who would win?
If (b) Would there be a formal challenge for the leadership, supported by the required number of Tory MPs? Who would mount such a challenge? Would Cameron emerge as the winner? If not, who would be the next PM?
I think Cameron would announce his intention to resign the morning after the vote (but would probably stay on as leader/PM while Tories have leadership contest)
Osborne would have to go immediately because it will need a new Chancellor to help restore calm to the markets - It can't be Osborne because he's been predicting all manner disaster if we vote LEAVE... No way could he calm the markets.
Very true. Osborne has sacked himself. Self-inflicted dismissal. Carney is also close to that. Probably best to bring Merv back for a year.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
Does the EU or the UK keep the import duty and also the VAT levied on imports?
VAT from imports goes to the host country, while 75% of the Common External Tariff goes to the EU. However, the total we pay includes the CET we collect, so you can't add it to the £350m (pre-rebate).
So currently the more we import from non EU countries, the more we pay to the EU as their 75% share of import duty.
It's quite a lot more complex than that because of trans-shipping.
But we would cease having to pay over the share of the CET to Brussels in the event of Brexit. *However*, that's already captured in the £350m (pre-rebate) number. Obviously, if we reduce tariffs to non-EU countries, then the amount raised for the Treasury will be lower. (That is, the overall saving will be less than the £280m post rebate number.)
Remain still have a 11 lead on the economy, that is what did for Ed.
Was it not that and the rubbish leadership ratings? Cameron's ratings are dire, this is going to be close.
Yes and Dave and Osborne beat bojo and gove everyday of the week.
This is the second post from you today containing a factual error on polls. On the previous thread you stated that in the scots referendum ICM had YES 7 % ahead a week before the vote. The only sept 2014 poll with a YES lead was yougov and that was 2% on 6th sept 2014.
There was an ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph a few days before the Referendum with figures of 48% Yes 42% No 10% DK.
Rachel Sylvester’s column in the Times (paywall) today on the party and the EU referendum.
It is Labour voters who will determine the outcome next week. According to a senior source at the Stronger In campaign, Tory voters are likely to account for a Remain vote of about 19 per cent, Lib Dems and Greens another 10 per cent and the SNP about 2 per cent, making a total of 31 per cent. That means that the prime minister is dependent on Labour voters to get over the required 50 per cent. Strategists have calculated that they need at least two-thirds of Labour supporters to vote Remain to be sure of victory. But — despite the vast majority of Labour MPs wanting to stay in — almost half of its voters do not know the party’s position ...
Another MP says that Labour voters in his area are breaking 55-45 for Out. “It’s terrible. The proverbial metropolitan elite has not been recognising the impact that rapid population change has had on the public services. And Labour is ducking this issue.”
The truth is that the referendum is exposing Labour’s breach with its traditional voters in a way that has profound implications for the country as well as the party. In Birmingham, campaigners were told to take all mentions of immigration out of their literature. Although the local MPs begged to be allowed to tackle local concerns head on, they were banned from doing so by party staff following instructions from the leader’s office. As one former minister says: “It gives the impression that we are completely out of touch with the way people live their lives.”
"The second hand dealers here order RRs from the factory for their showrooms, as the lead time is too long for most of the locals here to wait. ... "
Thats interesting, I shall have to ask my brother-in-law how that works out in practice. Each RR order is accompanied by a non-refundable deposit which runs well into to 5 figures and each car is built to the individual specifications of the customer. So buying cars for stock as it were entails significant capital outlay and the risk of having a car that no one wants to buy because it is not quite right. You car dealers, Mr. Pit, have balls of steel to risk that sort of money.
Perhaps we should have a thread soon on just what might possibly happen following a LEAVE victory -
Would Cameron indicate his intention to (a) resign as PM and Party Leader asap or (b) would he instead simply attempt to brazen it out ?
If (a), Would Osborne and possibly others also notify their intention to resign from the Cabinet? How many Tory MPs would resign the party whip? Who and how many would challenge for the Tory Leadership? Who would win?
If (b) Would there be a formal challenge for the leadership, supported by the required number of Tory MPs? Who would mount such a challenge? Would Cameron emerge as the winner? If not, who would be the next PM?
Cameron would do the Article 50 thing that morning - no point delaying. I suspect he'll also brazen it out arguing that, if the markets are in meltdown, the PM's resignation would only fuel the fire. Labour would table a vote of no confidence, which they'd lose. Boris, Gove and Patel will be appointed to head the 'Negotiation Task Force'.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
Does the EU or the UK keep the import duty and also the VAT levied on imports?
VAT from imports goes to the host country, while 75% of the Common External Tariff goes to the EU. However, the total we pay includes the CET we collect, so you can't add it to the £350m (pre-rebate).
So currently the more we import from non EU countries, the more we pay to the EU as their 75% share of import duty.
It's quite a lot more complex than that because of trans-shipping.
But we would cease having to pay over the share of the CET to Brussels in the event of Brexit. *However*, that's already captured in the £350m (pre-rebate) number. Obviously, if we reduce tariffs to non-EU countries, then the amount raised for the Treasury will be lower. (That is, the overall saving will be less than the £280m post rebate number.)
But the Treasury would receive any higher import tariffs imposed on EU countries in retaliation for their imposing higher import duties on the UK.
A suspended disqualification, so I suspec tthey're still in
How would their actual disqualification affect the group mechanics? It wouldn't be fair to the other three teams in the group to have the results against Russia annulled, as that deprives them of a potential 3pts (or 1 actual point in England's case) which will go towards their tally as best third place.
Remember that the best four third-place teams go through.
UEFA scared to disqualify Russia just like the althletics body and the Olympics body.
The Russian problems with doping won't stop until they get disqualified from the Olympics and embarrass Mr Putin into cleaning up the athletes. The IOC need to have the cojones to do it.
Rachel Sylvester’s column in the Times (paywall) today on the party and the EU referendum.
It is Labour voters who will determine the outcome next week. According to a senior source at the Stronger In campaign, Tory voters are likely to account for a Remain vote of about 19 per cent, Lib Dems and Greens another 10 per cent and the SNP about 2 per cent, making a total of 31 per cent. That means that the prime minister is dependent on Labour voters to get over the required 50 per cent. Strategists have calculated that they need at least two-thirds of Labour supporters to vote Remain to be sure of victory. But — despite the vast majority of Labour MPs wanting to stay in — almost half of its voters do not know the party’s position ...
Another MP says that Labour voters in his area are breaking 55-45 for Out. “It’s terrible. The proverbial metropolitan elite has not been recognising the impact that rapid population change has had on the public services. And Labour is ducking this issue.”
The truth is that the referendum is exposing Labour’s breach with its traditional voters in a way that has profound implications for the country as well as the party. In Birmingham, campaigners were told to take all mentions of immigration out of their literature. Although the local MPs begged to be allowed to tackle local concerns head on, they were banned from doing so by party staff following instructions from the leader’s office. As one former minister says: “It gives the impression that we are completely out of touch with the way people live their lives.”
I can't see the Tories providing 19%. Assuming c.40% of May 2015's Tory voters back Remain, that would be more like 15-16%.
I have to say I am struggling to imagine a reconciliation Cabinet under either David Cameron or any likely Leave Prime Minister that is going to keep the fringes quiescent.
Remember, only 10 rebel Conservative MPs can wreck the government's business.
@bbclaurak: At Corbyn event, just been speaking to dep leader Tom Watson - he tells me there should be controls on freedom of movement for EU migrants
@bbclaurak: Watson-voters been 'telling us for a long time' party needs to do more on immigration, suggests any future govt need to curb freedom of movt
A GE could see Brexit Tories arguing for EFTA/EEA on economic grounds, and Labour arguing for withdrawal to stop free movement
Buy Corbyn...
But Cameron told us all free movement was non-negotiable within the EU.
So it's basically bullshit unless Corbyn and Watson leave the EU.
We're about to do that for them. So far the signs are that Labour is thinking more strategically than Vote Leave, which is only thinking about destroying Cameron. If there's an early GE I wouldn't bet on Boris.
No need for an early GE. The Tory Party controls an absolute majority of the Commons and a Tory Leadership Election will be an alternative to a General Election.
The Tory party has an absolute majority if they are one party. Before we got to the referendum campaign we had them having to retreat and uturn and even accept an amendment to the queens speech - a party with a majority on paper but not in practice.
And what can we look forward to post-referendum. Only a big win for Remain would settle this, and even then the scars would have run deep. As it is a narrow win for Remain (if they're lucky) to a big win for Leave (in which case Farage is finished as an irrelevance) will leave the Tory party split hard in two, both sides hating the other side, both sides dripping with each other's blood.
Cabinet ministers have gone on the media and said the PM and Chancellor are liars. That the treasury numbers are always wrong. That the FCO and Home Office have mislead us. These people are NOT going on the media in the autumn backing a budget - that the chancellor and the treasury assessments are the absolute gospel truth.
They had no effective majority before the campaign. Whichever camp takes command after Dave is gutted will have nothing like a majority. Its "make the mid-90s look like a cakewalk" until 2020. Or an election. Once all this is over, I'm getting my CLP ready for the latter.
A Leave win by 1 vote ends the Tory split. You have to think logically from the perspective of each actor. If Leave win then the nation has voted to Leave, the overwhelming majority of Tory members must have voted for Leave and the nation will be Leaving no matter what. So what is a Remain Tory to do?
They could commit hari kari and go down with Remain to the bitter end. Probably face a challenge by their angry membership and get deselected for the next election. Or they could say they "respect the will of the British public" and quickly retreat from being pro-EU. Thus appearing respectful, maintaining their career chances and moving in line with the membership, the nation and what is going to happen anyway.
Any Remainer would be delusional not to go for option 2.
Comments
Now we have a significant chance of a Leave vote. They have lost control thanks to one of their own (Cameron) ineptly pledging a referendum in the first place then leading a remain campaign promising the murder of the first born male child in every household should we vote to leave.
Democracy is revolution. They know that - which is why they bought it. I suspect that losing control in this way won't be acceptable to them. So either something seismic to change minds in this last week, or a shock vote when the results are "counted"* or they simply declare the result advisory only as suggested and carry on as normal.
Yes, that would provoke people on the streets. In another country thats where the army would be ordered in. This is Britain. They only planned a coup in the 70s they didn't actually do it. How far will a desperate elite go to not lose control...?
*I will be at my local count next Thursday evening doing my usual count agent role. I expect not to see shenanigans
And I don't think that most would be immigrants think that way. There might be a small uptick, but the market will balance.
So it's basically bullshit unless Corbyn and Watson leave the EU.
The fetishising of Trump is really quite odd. This is a betting site and his poll ratings have been on the slide since late May.
Now we want to call him Dad.
It's all getting way to weird.
Nothing is a 'done deal', and anything can happen.
Besides which I do think quite a few AB Leavers will bottle it in the polling booth (not me - I think we'd be treated appallingly by the EU if we now stayed)
Apologies.
Firrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrsssssttttttt for the Rohirrim, and never mind the Elephants.
Ride! Ride! Ride to ... er ... Vendor, for a new nation of shopkeepers.
On the EU he was right to promise a referendum - it was about time - but he grossly oversold his 'renegotiation' which has damaged his credibility.
:-o
Here's an egg to go with your boots, grandma.
It is soooooo tempting to raise a copyright complaint against that video, to get TSE's creative juices flowing.
They've done it (I think) because of a fear of repeating the Indyref, where they won the referendum at the expense of obliterating themselves electorally.
Now they've come out and explicitly stabbed Cameron in the back on immigration, and when Remain win (which I'm still convinced they will), they can therefore avoid the flood of acrimony that will result.
Sovereignty and democracy and all that. Worried the wrong people might win it?
The Government backs remain.
If we vote Leave, we, the people, have no confidence in the Government.
A GE would be democratic...
https://dubai.dubizzle.com/motors/used-cars/rolls-royce/?price__gte=&price__lte=&year__gte=2015&year__lte=&kilometers__gte=&kilometers__lte=&seller_type=&keywords=&is_basic_search_widget=0&is_search=1&places__id__in=--&added__gte=&auto_agent=
Also a load of McLarens, Range Rovers and Aston Martins here too. The British luxury car market is in rude health.
Then we had Cameron's dubious promise.
Multi-culturalism as a concept was not exactly enhanced by the cover-up for a decade and a half of mass rape (and the racial aspect, for once, didn't go unreported).
I think all those things, as well as depressed wages and more demand for services driven by very high migration levels, have made it very difficult for Remain to get back any credibility.
A last minute Vow might work. It might piss people off if they think it's more lies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jersey_cattle#History_of_the_breed
I'm unleashing my inner geek.
Brexiteers keep telling us how that is stifling trade...
Post Brexit though, everything will change.
For instance, where will the UKIP supporters go?
Will Corbyn and Momentum embrace the golden opportunity to go for all out socialism and a return to 1970s Labour?
Will the Blairites join the Lib Dems.
There will be lots of realignments. The pieces will be 'in flux' as Blair - that great Europhile - would say.
Which I'd quite enjoy.
And what can we look forward to post-referendum. Only a big win for Remain would settle this, and even then the scars would have run deep. As it is a narrow win for Remain (if they're lucky) to a big win for Leave (in which case Farage is finished as an irrelevance) will leave the Tory party split hard in two, both sides hating the other side, both sides dripping with each other's blood.
Cabinet ministers have gone on the media and said the PM and Chancellor are liars. That the treasury numbers are always wrong. That the FCO and Home Office have mislead us. These people are NOT going on the media in the autumn backing a budget - that the chancellor and the treasury assessments are the absolute gospel truth.
They had no effective majority before the campaign. Whichever camp takes command after Dave is gutted will have nothing like a majority. Its "make the mid-90s look like a cakewalk" until 2020. Or an election. Once all this is over, I'm getting my CLP ready for the latter.
Mr. Trump made the issue a big part of his response to the mass shooting at an Orlando nightclub, saying that his probable opponent, Hillary Clinton, “wants to take away Americans’ guns” and promising to meet with the National Rifle Association “to discuss how to ensure Americans have the means to protect themselves in this age of terror.”
According to an Upshot analysis of Pew Research data, nearly half of white working-class Democrats think it’s more important to protect gun rights than to control gun ownership. That’s a larger percentage of Democratic voters than agree with Mr. Trump on many of the other issues that he stresses on the campaign trail.'
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/upshot/why-gun-control-probably-gives-donald-trump-an-edge.html?_r=0
But in that dark secret little booth ...
(Betfair seems to be the only one drifting though)
Must be a chance of £30M matched by midnight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5cJ0aJGGWs
Be even more useful to have a West/South/North breakdown (respectively, they're Lab-Con marginal, super red, and super blue).
Sam Gould, the UKIP candidate, and a canny operator, has uploaded a vid of the police moving him on from the town centre. He also video'd them not moving Labour, Wayne David and the Remain camp on.
I'm sure it is edited to suit, but Gould is certainly adept at self-promotion. He's the guy who brought the snowblower (which the kids loved) into Caerphilly town centre Christmastime and the one who brought trouble by projecting a massive UKIP poster onto Caerphilly castle.
He uses social media well too, and is getting right up Labour's nose.
Trade wars on non essentials hurt tend to get the reaction from producers not consumers.
Would Cameron indicate his intention to (a) resign as PM and Party Leader asap or (b) would he instead simply attempt to brazen it out ?
If (a), Would Osborne and possibly others also notify their intention to resign from the Cabinet? How many Tory MPs would resign the party whip?
Who and how many would challenge for the Tory Leadership? Who would win?
If (b) Would there be a formal challenge for the leadership, supported by the required number of Tory MPs? Who would mount such a challenge? Would Cameron emerge as the winner? If not, who would be the next PM?
Leave are heavily reliant on non-traditional voting groups and their voting coalition holding solid for the next 9 days, and it won't take much to swing it. The polls could recalibrate again to provide a minuscule Remain win.
Leave needs to provide maximum reassurance and exude professionalism now.
@bbclaurak
At Corbyn event, just been speaking to dep leader Tom Watson - he tells me there should be controls on freedom of movement for EU migrants
So is the patriotic betting making the odds on REMAIN lower than would be implied by the referendum pollsters?
Surprised he'd think it more serious than the Scottish vote.
I know that McLaren just added a second production shift (250 skilled jobs!), their biggest markets are the US, Asia and the ME before Europe. They're heading for 4,000 cars made next year, can't keep up with demand. I had a go in one last week, fantastic car
The second hand dealers here order RRs from the factory for their showrooms, as the lead time is too long for most of the locals here to wait. Their problem is they have some very skilled and experienced people who just can't be trained up quickly enough. China is their biggest growth market by far.
Osborne would have to go immediately because it will need a new Chancellor to help restore calm to the markets - It can't be Osborne because he's been predicting all manner disaster if we vote LEAVE... No way could he calm the markets.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36528403
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/1280270/pro-brexit-minister-taunts-david-cameron-with-copy-of-the-sun-as-she-enters-downing-street/
So currently the more we import from non EU countries, the more we pay to the EU as their 75% share of import duty.
Edited extra bit: should*, not she, of course.
Still, it may have the desired effect of stopping their thugs doing it again.
When you see Mr Meeks please tell him I've upped my xenophobia to the next level.
The Tories really are in a huge mess, aren't they?
But we would cease having to pay over the share of the CET to Brussels in the event of Brexit. *However*, that's already captured in the £350m (pre-rebate) number. Obviously, if we reduce tariffs to non-EU countries, then the amount raised for the Treasury will be lower. (That is, the overall saving will be less than the £280m post rebate number.)
Suspended disqualification = qualification.
UEFA scared to disqualify Russia just like the althletics body and the Olympics body.
A Leave vote would be easier for them to deal with.
Mr. Max, my wallet would rejoice were Priti Patel to become next Conservative leader.
It is Labour voters who will determine the outcome next week. According to a senior source at the Stronger In campaign, Tory voters are likely to account for a Remain vote of about 19 per cent, Lib Dems and Greens another 10 per cent and the SNP about 2 per cent, making a total of 31 per cent. That means that the prime minister is dependent on Labour voters to get over the required 50 per cent. Strategists have calculated that they need at least two-thirds of Labour supporters to vote Remain to be sure of victory. But — despite the vast majority of Labour MPs wanting to stay in — almost half of its voters do not know the party’s position ...
Another MP says that Labour voters in his area are breaking 55-45 for Out. “It’s terrible. The proverbial metropolitan elite has not been recognising the impact that rapid population change has had on the public services. And Labour is ducking this issue.”
The truth is that the referendum is exposing Labour’s breach with its traditional voters in a way that has profound implications for the country as well as the party. In Birmingham, campaigners were told to take all mentions of immigration out of their literature. Although the local MPs begged to be allowed to tackle local concerns head on, they were banned from doing so by party staff following instructions from the leader’s office. As one former minister says: “It gives the impression that we are completely out of touch with the way people live their lives.”
"The second hand dealers here order RRs from the factory for their showrooms, as the lead time is too long for most of the locals here to wait. ... "
Thats interesting, I shall have to ask my brother-in-law how that works out in practice. Each RR order is accompanied by a non-refundable deposit which runs well into to 5 figures and each car is built to the individual specifications of the customer. So buying cars for stock as it were entails significant capital outlay and the risk of having a car that no one wants to buy because it is not quite right. You car dealers, Mr. Pit, have balls of steel to risk that sort of money.
But the Treasury would receive any higher import tariffs imposed on EU countries in retaliation for their imposing higher import duties on the UK.
Remember that the best four third-place teams go through.
I am buying TSE a Brexit gift and going out for a beer with JohnO.
I may even go and see more of Richard Nabavi's raps.
Especially when they try and sell unlimited immigration to the voters to gain access to the single market.
Remember, only 10 rebel Conservative MPs can wreck the government's business.
They could commit hari kari and go down with Remain to the bitter end. Probably face a challenge by their angry membership and get deselected for the next election.
Or they could say they "respect the will of the British public" and quickly retreat from being pro-EU. Thus appearing respectful, maintaining their career chances and moving in line with the membership, the nation and what is going to happen anyway.
Any Remainer would be delusional not to go for option 2.