All the AB types that are meant to be voting remain where are they? Certainly not in large swathes of the london donut where you would expect to find them. Yet more wishful thinking from the chattering political classes?
Anecdotal: 'Wainbody Ward' in Coventry will deliver a decent 'remain' vote (According to my source). 'Remain' will need alot more than the 'Wainbody Wards' of the world though...
Well as long as Wainbody ward has an electorate of around 2million then the remain side should be fine.
Why are people assuming vast leads for Remain in Northern Ireland ?
If we have turnout the same as the last general election, this results in a net remain lead of about 65k. It's probably lower now.
I think someone said that the Catholic population was 80:20 in favour of Remain, while the Protestants broke 65:35 for Leave, which would imply perhaps a 100,000 vote lead for Remain there.
That'd imply a net lead of 300k, which isn't going to happen.
Top information. Excellent post.
So add 0.3% to Remain for NI and add 0.1% for Gibraltar.
For the expats, the Standard poll said 60% would vote and 75% of voters would back remain
1.3 million x0.6 x0.75= 600k remain 1.3 million x 0.6 x 0.25 = 200k leave So 400k net for remain =1.3%
So total expats+NI+Gib=1.7% to the remain score
I'm going to question this. What is your source for 1.3m ? I can't find anywhere remotely close to this number in offical stats. At the last general election, there was 106,000 overseas voters on the register. (source ONS), this is 90% less that you quote. Is it over 10 times higher now ? No, I don't think so.
We can assume a high turn out from this group, as they've gone to the bother to register, even at 75% remain (which I'm frankly doubtful of) on a 80% turnout, it's a 50k - 60k net for remain.
It's irrelevant in the big picture, people aren't looking at this properly.
If we assume that 50% of those living in the EU vote, and 25% of those in the RoW, then you get something very close to GoV's numbers.
Pretty much all my expat friends (excepting Indigo) are voting via proxies at this election.
We also need to include Irish, Cypriot, and Maltese voters resident in the UK as voters.
At the acknowledged risk of being wrong (and I'm an overseas registered voter), there may be 1.3m living in the EU etc, but they aren't on the electoral register in the UK and unless they've gone to the trouble to register, they can't vote via proxies or otherwise.
There's only 106k on the roll. That's a hard number.
That's lower than I thought it would be, then I remember that they don't have me down an an overseas voter, being registered at my old address and having someone send it here and back again. Probably most who are only away for a couple of years are registered like that.
There have been quite a few friends and acquaintances that have registered from abroad for this referendum, so the numbers may now be higher.
Very few people will be in your circumstance of having someone at your old address keeping you on the register.
Anyhow, the point I wanted to make over this series of posts is there is a general acceptance that NI and overseas voters are worth something like 3% - 4% for remain.
I think I've demonstrated factually that this isn't the case, all up I doubt they are worth even 1% net.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
But then, being outside the EU, the 10% import tariff will presumably also apply to cars built here for export to the EU. Tough times ahead for JLR. And companies like Nissan and Toyota will also be considering their options.
Usual scaremongering
The EU is not in a position to start a trade war on cars we import about 1 million more of the things from them than we sell them.
Why is it scaremongering? If we are outside the EU, why would the EU offer us far better conditions than it does to Japan, the US and Australia? Especially when it stands to benefit from the possible transfer of investment by, e.g., Japanese car manufacturers.
It's also fascinating how people who've spent years banging on about how the EU is a political, not an economic project now think that the EU will negotiate with us on purely economic terms and forget the politics.
Dutch Minister calls for us to be more 'active' if we vote to Remain:
"He adds that voters in the UK may not be very interested in what he has to say, but he believes that there is a "strong argument for European co-operation" to be made.
He says that if the UK does vote to remain, he "would like to see them become an active member" of the EU, adding that the country has become "more and more passive" in its role in recent years. "
Cameron's turn of heart, from knocking the EU while vaunting his promised referendum, and threatening to quit if he didn't get a good deal, to becoming an EU evangelist, would have been far more credible if his pro-EU position had a sceptical edge to it, or if he'd got a more game-changing deal.
Realistically Cameron didn't leave a sufficient timeframe to negotiate it in, but something like associate membership (with suitable guarantees on non-core countries not being outvoted en bloc by the inner group on certain issues) is the logical direction of travel for the UK if it remains in the EU, and probably several other countries too.
However, formalised semi-detachment seems to be regarded as a threat to the European Project.
For all the criticism of Leave being a "vote into the dark", I'm really not sure what I'd be getting on a 10-20 year timespan if I voted Remain either.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 53m53 minutes ago Little anecdote for the doorsteps. Labour MP tells me he has met a lot of people telling him "I'm voting out" who aren't registered.
The problem with Dan's anecdotes is that the headline numbers in the polls have already had considerable adjustments made to them for turnout assumptions.
Yesterday's 5 point lead in the online ICM was actually 12 points ahead on 10/10 to vote.
Is 10/10, a measure of will definitely be voting, or does it also check they are registered to actually vote?
Some run checks on registration - but the key point is that the pollsters are already whacking in turnout filters based on prior behaviour and previously observed turnout.
At the last election the electorate was around 46m - about 90% of the people at voting age.
London (remain's best hope) alone will have 1m + barred this around on citizenship grounds.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
But then, being outside the EU, the 10% import tariff will presumably also apply to cars built here for export to the EU. Tough times ahead for JLR. And companies like Nissan and Toyota will also be considering their options.
Usual scaremongering
The EU is not in a position to start a trade war on cars we import about 1 million more of the things from them than we sell them.
Why would we choose to make cars more expensive to buy and reduce consumer choice?
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
So even if we don't get any form of trade deal with the EU (extremely unlikely) we effectively will face at most 2.1% tariffs?
We'll have a free trade deal with the EU, because it would be economic suicide for both us and the EU not to.
But we would then surely be obliged to maintain tariffs on imports from third countries as part of the deal.
Any deal would leave the UK outside of the customs union, even EEA.
Yes, that wasn't what I meant. I meant that any future free trade deal with the EU would surely include requirements for us to continue charging tariffs on external trade. Why, for example, would the EU forgo an 10% import tariff on cars from the UK if we allow tariff-free import of cars from, e.g. the US? Cheap cars would pour into the EU via the UK, decimating the EU car industry. It simply wouldn't make sense for them to allow this.
Don't start me on spousal immigration! The situation they really can't cope with is mine, where I met and married someone while working abroad. I can't prove I have any income as they only count income earned in the UK for their calculations. The result is that I would have to move back before her and get a job (self employment is something else they can't deal with) for up to two years.
The other alternative is for her to turn up and sue the govt under Human Rights, which would almost certainly win. The U.K. struggles both legally and psyically to deport almost anyone. If we had a child born in the UK that would also help.
Under any sort of points system she should easily qualify (she has a degree and is a teacher), maybe in a couple of years if we leave the EU the mess that is the Home Office might have some sympathy for a case like ours.
In the meantime we wonder how, to think of a pertinent example, a Rotherham taxi driver, manages to have no problem marrying his cousin in Pakistan and bringing her (and her parents and siblings) straight back to the UK.
Well this is the thing, when you look at actual cases on the sharp end it turns out that nearly *all* of them involve situations they can't really cope with. For some reason when people who want to expand the immigration bureaucracy run into this they always seem to assume their case is the exception, when in fact it's the rule. We've seen this from several different people right here on pb.
The "points system" thing is quite a sneaky trick by the pro-immigration-bureaucracy side, because everyone assumes that all the legitimate cases would have enough points. In reality it's the same process: A bunch of arbitrary box-checking rules, made by people chasing top-down targets, that inevitably fail when they run into actual, complicated human reality.
Yes, we had a case in the most Tory/UKIP part of Broxtowe where the Latvian couple running the local pub, who'd rescued it from near-dereliction to a popular local watering-hole, were seized and deported with their kid at 7am one morning, less than a year before Latvia joined the EU so they'd have been entitled to stay anyway. Photos in the local paper of baby's toys left abandoned in the scramble etc. People who I'd known for years as rigorously anti-immigration were incensed; conversely, the head of the team who'd deported them said, exasperated, "Do people want the rules followed strictly or not?"
A sad story. I think most of the exasperation of things like this, is the sense that the authorities are picking the easy targets, people who are causing no harm and not being a drain on the State, rather than those who abuse our hospitality then claim Human Rights to stop the govt kicking them out.
As I said upthread, the easiest way to settle back in the UK with my wife would be her to arrive on a visit visa then sue the govt for her right to remain. She'd probably get legal aid to do it too, maybe even our MP could put in a good word for her
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
But then, being outside the EU, the 10% import tariff will presumably also apply to cars built here for export to the EU. Tough times ahead for JLR. And companies like Nissan and Toyota will also be considering their options.
Usual scaremongering
The EU is not in a position to start a trade war on cars we import about 1 million more of the things from them than we sell them.
Why is it scaremongering? If we are outside the EU, why would the EU offer us far better conditions than it does to Japan, the US and Australia? Especially when it stands to benefit from the possible transfer of investment by, e.g., Japanese car manufacturers.
Because it's exporting more than it's importing. Why would it want to cut it's own throat ? Equally why would those EU companies in the UK VW, BMW, Renault\Nissan be desperate for their factories to stand still ? An empty factory is really expensive to run.
@OldKingCole If Leave win, those who sought it need to be left to pursue it to its logical conclusion. There can be no arguments about stabs in the backs or cheating the British public.
Yes, it would probably be grim, but the public are entitled to have their vote honoured.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
So even if we don't get any form of trade deal with the EU (extremely unlikely) we effectively will face at most 2.1% tariffs?
We'll have a free trade deal with the EU, because it would be economic suicide for both us and the EU not to.
But we would then surely be obliged to maintain tariffs on imports from third countries as part of the deal.
Any deal would leave the UK outside of the customs union, even EEA.
Yes, that wasn't what I meant. I meant that any future free trade deal with the EU would surely include requirements for us to continue charging tariffs on external trade. Why, for example, would the EU forgo an 10% import tariff on cars from the UK if we allow tariff-free import of cars from, e.g. the US? Cheap cars would pour into the EU via the UK, decimating the EU car industry. It simply wouldn't make sense for them to allow this.
The EFTA countries are free - either collectively or en mass - to enter into trade deals. So, see China's (admittedly rather one-sided) deal with Switzerland, or the Canada deal with EFTA.
"It now seems distinctly possible that next week the nation is going to turn its back on playing a major and constructive part in the world in favour of isolation and introversion. Given the nature of the Leave campaign, the things I most value about this country - tolerance and acceptance of others, openness, being outward-looking - would have been rejected. It's sad that it is even plausible.
For those like me that believe in such things, we would need to rethink our identity and our aims. The referendum result must be respected whichever way it goes but a Leave victory obtained in such a way would change my relationship with my country and my countrymen"
The post that most elegantly describes the feelings of many of us I would guess.
It's as though everything and everyone is suddenly alien. I don't care less whether a Leave vote makes me personally richer or poorer. It'll do something infinitely more depressing and bleak. It'll made me doubt the inate values of my fellow countrymen which for all our petty differences is something I've never done before.
You have always doubted the inate values of your fellow countrymen. Indeed you have regularly scorned them on here you are simply viewing this result through the prism if your own bigotry.
Do you ever wonder why posters insult you so much more infrequently than you insult them?
Simply pointing out one of your failings Roger. You are a bigot who views his fellow countrymen with disdain and has never been afraid to make that perfectly obvious. I have no idea whether it is because of a life time spent in advertising or just some innate sense of superiority you feel. But it is clear in your comments.
I wasn't complaining. It was just something that struck me and I was curious.
@OldKingCole If Leave win, those who sought it need to be left to pursue it to its logical conclusion. There can be no arguments about stabs in the backs or cheating the British public.
Yes, it would probably be grim, but the public are entitled to have their vote honoured.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
Given Japanese and American car companies already have substantial European production, I don't buy that they'll start shipping halfway around the world. Furthermore, US production tends to be much more 'light truck' oriented, and I'm not sure demand is that high in the UK for 15mpg F Series pick ups or 12mpg Chevrolet Eldorado.
I also don't buy the idea that the UK government will unilaterally cut tariffs - because if your tariffs are zero, then our leverage to persuade others to open up their markets to our companies disappears.
Mr. Robert, Japanese car companies already ship some models half-way round the world as not all models that are sold in Europe are built here. The Honda Jazz for example is imported from Japan. It is also a very high selling car with a cash price of about £14k, my local Honda dealer tells me he can't get enough of them.
So whatever tariff there is on imported cars it doesn't seem to make a difference to their sales.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
But then, being outside the EU, the 10% import tariff will presumably also apply to cars built here for export to the EU. Tough times ahead for JLR. And companies like Nissan and Toyota will also be considering their options.
Usual scaremongering
The EU is not in a position to start a trade war on cars we import about 1 million more of the things from them than we sell them.
Why would we choose to make cars more expensive to buy and reduce consumer choice?
What evidence do you have to say that ?
The problem todays car industry has is there is too much choice, it;s why profitability gets hammered. You appear to think that one of the world's most globalised industries only operates out of France and Germany.
I'm sure Leave campaigners would agree that that Parliament is sovereign,therefore Parliament has the final say on the EUref decision.They need reminding the status of the referendum is merely "advisory".A majority of MPs in Parliament may choose NOT to accept the peoples' "advice" because that's all it is.It is non-binding.
David Allen Green @DavidAllenGreen 5m5 minutes ago In essence: the EU referendum is non-binding and advisory. The real issue is what then follows any vote for Brexit.
Article to come in FT.
It'd be perfectly legal. But absolute chaos would follow such a course. No Tory government could survive such a decision. We'd stumble toward a GE, and what then?
The people decide. For they are sovereign.
Indeed. But even for those MPs who don't want to leave the EU, taking such action would likely lead to things they would not want, like a Corbyn government, or hard left anyway, as the Tories aren't winning a GE if they are split in two.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
But then, being outside the EU, the 10% import tariff will presumably also apply to cars built here for export to the EU. Tough times ahead for JLR. And companies like Nissan and Toyota will also be considering their options.
Usual scaremongering
The EU is not in a position to start a trade war on cars we import about 1 million more of the things from them than we sell them.
Why would we choose to make cars more expensive to buy and reduce consumer choice?
If Remain claims about currency movements are correct, tariffs would be negated for our exporters, while EU companies would find exporting to the UK a much harder grind.
For that reason alone, the EU will not want to engage in tariff disputes.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
But then, being outside the EU, the 10% import tariff will presumably also apply to cars built here for export to the EU. Tough times ahead for JLR. And companies like Nissan and Toyota will also be considering their options.
Usual scaremongering
The EU is not in a position to start a trade war on cars we import about 1 million more of the things from them than we sell them.
Why would we choose to make cars more expensive to buy and reduce consumer choice?
What evidence do you have to say that ?
The problem todays car industry has is there is too much choice, it;s why profitability gets hammered. You appear to think that one of the world's most globalised industries only operates out of France and Germany.
No, I am responding to your claim that there would be no trade war because we import more of their cars than they import of ours. I don't get that logic, as what you are actually saying is that buyers of cars in the UK would be more negatively affected by a trade war than those in the EU. That surely gives the EU the upper hand.
The EU is not in a position to start a trade war on cars we import about 1 million more of the things from them than we sell them.
Why is it scaremongering? If we are outside the EU, why would the EU offer us far better conditions than it does to Japan, the US and Australia? Especially when it stands to benefit from the possible transfer of investment by, e.g., Japanese car manufacturers.
There will be a deal that gives something something to both sides. But it will favour the EU more than us. Because
a) We need the deal more b) The EU will be leading the negotiations according to its timetable.
I was in Wetherspoons yesterday reading its Brexit magazine, where the founder was saying it's just like negotiating with one of his suppliers. In fact a big supply contract was coming up for renegotiation. While a deal wasn't guaranteed both companies expect a deal satisfactory for both. I thought that analogy was closer than Tim Martin realised. What Wetherspoons thinks is satisfactory and what his supplier thinks is probably quite different because of their different negotiating powers. Wetherspoons would be the EU and the supplier the UK
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
So even if we don't get any form of trade deal with the EU (extremely unlikely) we effectively will face at most 2.1% tariffs?
We'll have a free trade deal with the EU, because it would be economic suicide for both us and the EU not to.
But we would then surely be obliged to maintain tariffs on imports from third countries as part of the deal.
Any deal would leave the UK outside of the customs union, even EEA.
Yes, that wasn't what I meant. I meant that any future free trade deal with the EU would surely include requirements for us to continue charging tariffs on external trade. Why, for example, would the EU forgo an 10% import tariff on cars from the UK if we allow tariff-free import of cars from, e.g. the US? Cheap cars would pour into the EU via the UK, decimating the EU car industry. It simply wouldn't make sense for them to allow this.
The EFTA countries are free - either collectively or en mass - to enter into trade deals. So, see China's (admittedly rather one-sided) deal with Switzerland, or the Canada deal with EFTA.
That's not answering my question. How can it possibly make sense for, say, cars to be imported from the US to the UK with zero tariff and then imported from the UK to the EU with zero tariff, but cars imported directly from the US to the EU to be subject to a 10% tariff?
The political aftermath will be interesting. Cameron will be gone quickly and a leaver in his place. But at least the Tory vote will then be in line with a sizable chunk of their MPS and their new leader.
If it's Leave then Labour are in big trouble. A leadership challenge is being muttered about - but from the same Continuity New Labour faction who always mutter, and they are fanatical Remainers. Corbyn will have followed party policy and promoted Remain, but if as it looks a good number of party supporters (or more preciently *former* supporters) are Leavers then the party is further than ever from its voters with the activists trying to pull it even further away.
There are 459 MPs for REMAIN 159 for LEAVE. What happens next if Leave win-like so much else-is a mystery. Maybe the Rupert Murdoch's Soaraway Sun can become the government?
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
dammit - cheaper NZ pinot grigio !
No - cheaper NZ sauvignon blanc.
Yummy. So much better than french sauvignon blanc.
That is my cue to mention Cook's Bay, a New Zealand sauvignon blanc, a really spiffiing table wine. £6.50 at my local off-licence absolutely stunning value.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods impon sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
But then, being outside Nissan and Toyota will also be considering their options.
Usual scaremongering
The EU is not in a position to start a trade war on cars we import about 1 million more of the things from them than we sell them.
Why would we choose to make cars more expensive to buy and reduce consumer choice?
What evidence do you have to say that ?
The problem todays car industry has is there is too much choice, it;s why profitability gets hammered. You appear to think that one of the world's most globalised industries only operates out of France and Germany.
No, I am responding to your claim that there would be no trade war because we import more of their cars than they import of ours. I don't get that logic, as what you are actually saying is that buyers of cars in the UK would be more negatively affected by a trade war than those in the EU. That surely gives the EU the upper hand.
Not at all, the Japanese and Koreans will more than fill any gap in consumer choice and that's before you add in the USA and China.
The only area I can see an issue on cars is luxury marques, but if it means the british middle classes have to struggle by in a Jaguar, Bentley or Lexus I'm sure they'll survive.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
But then, being outside the EU, the 10% import tariff will presumably also apply to cars built here for export to the EU. Tough times ahead for JLR. And companies like Nissan and Toyota will also be considering their options.
Usual scaremongering
The EU is not in a position to start a trade war on cars we import about 1 million more of the things from them than we sell them.
Why would we choose to make cars more expensive to buy and reduce consumer choice?
If Remain claims about currency movements are correct, tariffs would be negated for our exporters, while EU companies would find exporting to the UK a much harder grind.
For that reason alone, the EU will not want to engage in tariff disputes.
Why? We buy more of their stuff, so it will be British consumers who will either have to face higher prices. In the face of reduced competition the response of a seller is to raise prices anyway, so it's not as if we will get huge savings by importing from elsewhere.
That's not answering my question. How can it possibly make sense for, say, cars to be imported from the US to the UK with zero tariff and then imported from the UK to the EU with zero tariff, but cars imported directly from the US to the EU to be subject to a 10% tariff?
That's not how tariffs work. There are re-export clauses (and percent of work created clauses) in the deals that Norway - for example has with the EU. It cannot import an Embrear train from Canada and then re-export it free of tariffs to the rest of the EU.
On the subject of personal attacks, @SeanT's stirring call for everyone to rally around a post-Brexit Britain and his genuine incredulity was touching when I said that I had no intention of hanging together with the Leavers who are taking our country on a potentially disastrous course. It might have been still more touching if he hadn't earlier in the month expressed a wish to see me (and others) dead.
Magnanimous in (expected) victory, vicious in (expected) defeat.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges 53m53 minutes ago Little anecdote for the doorsteps. Labour MP tells me he has met a lot of people telling him "I'm voting out" who aren't registered.
I would take everything Dan Hodges says with a 'pinch of salt'. By pinch I mean truckload and by salt I mean bullshit.
Yep. But there will be a lot of unregistered voters, many of them Labour-leaning. That was thought to be a problem for Remain given the assumption that most Labour supporters would vote to stay in the EU, but if there has been a big Labour swing to Leave that may no longer be the case.
One thing I would say is that Leave is indeed relying on a group from poor WWC Labour strongholds which often have low turnout/registration rates.
Of course, much of this is simply due to the fact that there is not much point voting in places like Doncaster, as the result is a foregone conclusion. But that fact in and of itself may indeed depress registration rates.
By contrast, Remain's middle class professional vote are usually high turnout.
I write this as a Leave backer, and a Remain supporter.
One difference with the young is that the WWC often live in the same place for years, so may well be registered even if they haven't voted in a while.
If we look at say Barnsley Central, the population in 2011 was 85,714 and the electorate in 2010 was 64,732. So that's 75% registration rate which isn't bad if you consider some will be children. Of that 57% turned out at the last election
If we compare with Cambridge, the population in 2011 was 114,740 and the electorate in 2010 was 75,259. So that's 65% registration rate which makes sense if you consider there will be EU nationals there etc who aren't eligible to vote. Of that 62% turned out to vote
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
Given Japanese and American car companies already have substantial European production, I don't buy that they'll start shipping halfway around the world. Furthermore, US production tends to be much more 'light truck' oriented, and I'm not sure demand is that high in the UK for 15mpg F Series pick ups or 12mpg Chevrolet Eldorado.
I also don't buy the idea that the UK government will unilaterally cut tariffs - because if your tariffs are zero, then our leverage to persuade others to open up their markets to our companies disappears.
Mr. Robert, Japanese car companies already ship some models half-way round the world as not all models that are sold in Europe are built here. The Honda Jazz for example is imported from Japan. It is also a very high selling car with a cash price of about £14k, my local Honda dealer tells me he can't get enough of them.
So whatever tariff there is on imported cars it doesn't seem to make a difference to their sales.
I happily spent over £50k on a BMW and a Merc in my previous life. If it was 51k - would I change my choice = of course not.
It's an absurd argument. Those buying premium brands buy premium brands. Every white good in my house was Bosch.
If anyone wants to know why I keep disappearing from time to time, it's because someone on PB habitually puts me in Limbo* for various periods and for reasons only known to them.
If anyone thinks I'm being paranoid - I am.
*applicant status; where one can sign in but cannot post.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods impon sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
But then, being outside Nissan and Toyota will also be considering their options.
Usual scaremongering
The EU them.
Why would we choose to make cars more expensive to buy and reduce consumer choice?
What evidence do you have to say that ?
The problem todays car industry has is there is too much choice, it;s why profitability gets hammered. You appear to think that one of the world's most globalised industries only operates out of France and Germany.
No, I am responding to your claim that there would be no trade war because we import more of their cars than they import of ours. I don't get that logic, as what you are actually saying is that buyers of cars in the UK would be more negatively affected by a trade war than those in the EU. That surely gives the EU the upper hand.
Not at all, the Japanese and Koreans will more than fill any gap in consumer choice and that's before you add in the USA and China.
The only area I can see an issue on cars is luxury marques, but if it means the british middle classes have to struggle by in a Jaguar, Bentley or Lexus I'm sure they'll survive.
Sure, they'd fill the gap happily enough. And raise their prices to reflect the reduced competition. Isn't that how capitalism works?
That's not answering my question. How can it possibly make sense for, say, cars to be imported from the US to the UK with zero tariff and then imported from the UK to the EU with zero tariff, but cars imported directly from the US to the EU to be subject to a 10% tariff?
That's not how tariffs work. There are re-export clauses (and percent of work created clauses) in the deals that Norway - for example has with the EU. It cannot import an Embrear train from Canada and then re-export it free of tariffs to the rest of the EU.
Ah, I see. That sounds rather bureaucratic and open to abuse though. Wouldn't it result in a large (black?) market in US cars being imported through the UK to the EU in order to avoid the 10% tariff?
Are the pollsters giving up? Wow. The conspiracy theorist might surmise that they don't want headlines of Leave leads the week before that might effect that outcome, more likely they haven't got a clue and don't want headlines like they got last May about all the polls being crap!
If anyone wants to know why I keep disappearing from time to time, it's because someone on PB habitually puts me in Limbo* for various periods and for reasons only known to them.
If anyone thinks I'm being paranoid - I am.
*applicant status; where one can sign in but cannot post.
It's a conspiracy... there's a few about on PB in these heady days...
I do wonder what will happen if, after a Leave vote, immigration stays at the current level for a while.
Well, quite.
High immigration is linked to a booming economy. As Osborne has noted, you can reduce immigration significantly by crashing the economy. Not sure that is BoZo's ideal scenario
So the Conservatives played us for fools then when promising to get it down into the 10's of thousands.
@Sandpit I'm going for Option B. The referendum is really hard for pollsters to model because of its unique nature. Add that to the struggles that pollsters are already facing and why risk the last shreds of your credibility on a fool's errand?
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods imported from the EU, which constitute about half of our imports. These will surely become more expensive as the pound falls.
OK, though, I see that dropping tariffs on food from outside the EU will make it cheaper, though less so after a fall in sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
So even if we don't get any form of trade deal with the EU (extremely unlikely) we effectively will face at most 2.1% tariffs?
We'll have a free trade deal with the EU, because it would be economic suicide for both us and the EU not to.
But we would then surely be obliged to maintain tariffs on imports from third countries as part of the deal.
Any deal would leave the UK outside of the customs union, even EEA.
Yes, that wasn't what I meant. I meant that any future free trade deal with the EU would surely include requirements for us to continue charging tariffs on external trade. Why, for example, would the EU forgo an 10% import tariff on cars from the UK if we allow tariff-free import of cars from, e.g. the US? Cheap cars would pour into the EU via the UK, decimating the EU car industry. It simply wouldn't make sense for them to allow this.
Rules of Origin - in this case the point of origin would be on the customs declaration.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods impon sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars from outside the EU is another one. 10% off all Japanese, American and Australian built cars if the govt scrap it.
But then, being outside Nissan and Toyota will also be considering their options.
Usual scaremongering
The EU them.
Why would we choose to make cars more expensive to buy and reduce consumer choice?
What evidence do you have to say that ?
The problem todays car iermany.
No, I am responding te upper hand.
Not at all, the Japanese and Koreans will more than fill any gap in consumer choice and that's before you add in the USA and China.
The only area I can see an issue on cars is luxury marques, but if it means the british middle classes have to struggle by in a Jaguar, Bentley or Lexus I'm sure they'll survive.
Sure, they'd fill the gap happily enough. And raise their prices to reflect the reduced competition. Isn't that how capitalism works?
The reduced competition is primarily a function of the EU which has raised barriers to non-EU importers over the years to protect it's own industry. These are not just in the form of tariffs but also in import agreements which fix the number of cars that will be permitted to come in. Getting round these barriers was one of the main reasons Honda, Nissan and Toyota set up factories in the UK.
Are the pollsters giving up? Wow. The conspiracy theorist might surmise that they don't want headlines of Leave leads the week before that might affect that outcome, more likely they haven't got a clue and don't want headlines like they got last May about all the polls being crap!
Reputation management seems totally sensible to me. I'd leave the field too - no one has any idea. The EU ref is a kluge of opinions that we've never seen before.
I do wonder what will happen if, after a Leave vote, immigration stays at the current level for a while.
Well, quite.
High immigration is linked to a booming economy. As Osborne has noted, you can reduce immigration significantly by crashing the economy. Not sure that is BoZo's ideal scenario
So the Conservatives played us for fools then when promising to get it down into the 10's of thousands.
Glad we cleared that up.
Yep - though a lot of Tory leavers on here and elsewhere who now claim they were conned actually chose not to look too closely and enthusiastically supported government policies predicated on high levels of immigration.
The BBC are already running with this big time (in their completely impartial way of course). We have a government that is not particularly incentivised to stop pressure on the £, almost the reverse. At the moment we are talking 10ths of a cent but if this gathers momentum it has the potential to be a game changer. Watch the markets today, especially the £.
Err - there have been other big movements in sterling and stock markets before you know.
I can see why remain would like to pretend this is something special, but there are also external factors at play.
@SouthamObserver They're still doing it. The scraps that one might charitably call Leave's economic policy are also based on assumed high levels of immigration.
The Dilbert guy wrote this six months ago, after the San Bernardino shootings:-
'Here I am not talking about logic and reason. I’m talking about the tendency of human brains to form automatic associations. Those automatic connections that are disconnected from reason are how hypnotists can hypnotize and influencers can influence. Reason aside, when you observe an older male authority figure making a hard choice on your behalf, it just feels dadlike. You can’t help make the connection.
The Dad idea won’t fully emerge until the general election…when Dad runs against mom. Speaking of Mom, you love what she stands for, but she can be such a bitch sometimes. Still, if you need a sandwich, or a hug, or some understanding, you probably pick mom.
But if you hear a loud noise downstairs, and you live in a dangerous neighborhood, you’re probably hoping Dad gets to the baseball bat before Mom, even if they are equally capable. You’re a sexist that way, in your irrational brain.
The political aftermath will be interesting. Cameron will be gone quickly and a leaver in his place. But at least the Tory vote will then be in line with a sizable chunk of their MPS and their new leader.
If it's Leave then Labour are in big trouble. A leadership challenge is being muttered about - but from the same Continuity New Labour faction who always mutter, and they are fanatical Remainers. Corbyn will have followed party policy and promoted Remain, but if as it looks a good number of party supporters (or more preciently *former* supporters) are Leavers then the party is further than ever from its voters with the activists trying to pull it even further away.
There are 459 MPs for REMAIN 159 for LEAVE. What happens next if Leave win-like so much else-is a mystery. Maybe the Rupert Murdoch's Soaraway Sun can become the government?
Its going to be 'interesting'. However the referendum isn't binding (if we vote Leave), so maybe we'll have a few months negotiation and then have another go at it and get it right. Of course the public don't appreciate that, so there may be a few percent who decide to switch political allegiance.
If Leave win then quite a few politicians are going to regret prostituting their beliefs into thinking they only had a future supporting Remain.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods impon sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars scrap it.
But then, being outside Nissan and Toyota will also be considering their options.
Usual scaremongering
The EU them.
Why would we choose to make cars more expensive to buy and reduce consumer choice?
What evidence do you have to say that ?
The problem todays car iermany.
No, I am responding te upper hand.
Not China.
The survive.
Sure, they'd fill the gap happily enough. And raise their prices to reflect the reduced competition. Isn't that how capitalism works?
The reduced competition is primarily a function of the EU which has raised barriers to non-EU importers over the years to protect it's own industry. These are not just in the form of tariffs but also in import agreements which fix the number of cars that will be permitted to come in. Getting round these barriers was one of the main reasons Honda, Nissan and Toyota set up factories in the UK.
Sure - but whatever way we look at it a trade war probably means higher prices for UK consumers because we are more dependent on imports, so it is something that we would want to avoid at all costs.
Are the pollsters giving up? Wow. The conspiracy theorist might surmise that they don't want headlines of Leave leads the week before that might effect that outcome, more likely they haven't got a clue and don't want headlines like they got last May about all the polls being crap!
Pollsters want to be paid for doing polls.
Perhaps the Guardian is not going to pay ICM any more for polls which show LEAVE leading.
No, I think Brexit is now a done deal. With Miliband I never once thought that the nation actually wanted him to reign over us. Brexit has a different feel entirely - it's like a giant tentacled monster sucking its lifeblood from a whole range of different hosts. Currently throughout civilisation the masses are flirting with mavericks and danger. Brexit is just the British version of this phenomenon. Remain's only hope is that respondents are venting their spleen to the pollsters but in the sanctity of the polling booth will calm down and opt for the quiet life, but this is probably grasping at straws.
For most people there really is more to life than money. Identity, security, culture, fairness. What have they to do with GDP?
Let them eat Sovereignty
We're a nations of porkers a diet will do us good and save the NHS zillions.
As lower food costs are an almost certainty post-Brexit, a diet is by no means guaranteed!
What makes you think food will be cheaper? Given that we import some 40% of our food and a drop in sterling is likely, won't this translate into higher food prices?
The EU compels us to put exhorbitant tariffs on food. Lose those and the price will come down dramatically.
There are no tariffs on foods impon sterling. Presumably the money for this is also coming from the (mythical) £350 m / week saving?
No money needs to come from anywhere since we don't keep the tariff revenue on imports (that is kept by the EU) and it's not part of the £350m/week.
It is also likely the EU imports would quickly be replaced by non-EU imports, as the reason for taxing people to protect the good white farmers over the African ones is that they would not be competitive otherwise.
Simplistically, import tariffs average 2.1% for the EU, 2.4% for Japan, 2.5% for Canada, 2.7% for the US, and 2.8% for Australia.
Cars scrap it.
But then, being outside Nissan and Toyota will also be considering their options.
Usual scaremongering
The EU them.
Why would we choose to make cars more expensive to buy and reduce consumer choice?
What evidence do you have to say that ?
The problem todays car iermany.
No, I am responding te upper hand.
Not China.
The survive.
Sure, they'd fill the gap happily enough. And raise their prices to reflect the reduced competition. Isn't that how capitalism works?
The reduced a set up factories in the UK.
Sure - but whatever way we look at it a trade war probably means higher prices for UK consumers because we are more dependent on imports, so it is something that we would want to avoid at all costs.
I think you want to convince yourself of that. There is however massive overcapacity in the car industry worldwide. If we had no barriers prices would fall. Likewise if we have barriers we'll probably boost our own output as we make more at home thereby reducing our BOP problem.
I happily spent over £50k on a BMW and a Merc in my previous life. If it was 51k - would I change my choice = of course not.
It's an absurd argument. Those buying premium brands buy premium brands. Every white good in my house was Bosch.
Exactly, Miss P., and when buying an item a few percent on the price makes no sodding difference. I haven't bought French wine for years even though it carries no import duty. I buy wines from Chile, New Zealand, Australia and, occasionally, South Africa whose prices are higher than they need be because of the import duty. Value for money is the key.
On a tangent when I was working I had a very wealthy client who amongst his cars had a brand New Rolls Royce Phantom. Gordon Brown had just really wacked up vehicle excise duty on gas guzzlers to discourage their use. I asked my client if this higher duty had not deterred him from buying such a beast, he just laughed. £350,000 for the car, £50k p.a. for the bloke to drive it, £2k per service, so £450 VED was a spit in the ocean.
The political aftermath will be interesting. Cameron will be gone quickly and a leaver in his place. But at least the Tory vote will then be in line with a sizable chunk of their MPS and their new leader.
If it's Leave then Labour are in big trouble. A leadership challenge is being muttered about - but from the same Continuity New Labour faction who always mutter, and they are fanatical Remainers. Corbyn will have followed party policy and promoted Remain, but if as it looks a good number of party supporters (or more preciently *former* supporters) are Leavers then the party is further than ever from its voters with the activists trying to pull it even further away.
There are 459 MPs for REMAIN 159 for LEAVE. What happens next if Leave win-like so much else-is a mystery. Maybe the Rupert Murdoch's Soaraway Sun can become the government?
Remain MPs in Leave areas will suffer the same fate as Scottish Labour.
The Dilbert guy wrote this six months ago, after the San Bernardino shootings:-
'Here I am not talking about logic and reason. I’m talking about the tendency of human brains to form automatic associations. Those automatic connections that are disconnected from reason are how hypnotists can hypnotize and influencers can influence. Reason aside, when you observe an older male authority figure making a hard choice on your behalf, it just feels dadlike. You can’t help make the connection.
The Dad idea won’t fully emerge until the general election…when Dad runs against mom. Speaking of Mom, you love what she stands for, but she can be such a bitch sometimes. Still, if you need a sandwich, or a hug, or some understanding, you probably pick mom.
But if you hear a loud noise downstairs, and you live in a dangerous neighborhood, you’re probably hoping Dad gets to the baseball bat before Mom, even if they are equally capable. You’re a sexist that way, in your irrational brain.
I happily spent over £50k on a BMW and a Merc in my previous life. If it was 51k - would I change my choice = of course not.
It's an absurd argument. Those buying premium brands buy premium brands. Every white good in my house was Bosch.
Exactly, Miss P., and when buying an item a few percent on the price makes no sodding difference. I haven't bought French wine for years even though it carries no import duty. I buy wines from Chile, New Zealand, Australia and, occasionally, South Africa whose prices are higher than they need be because of the import duty. Value for money is the key.
On a tangent when I was working I had a very wealthy client who amongst his cars had a brand New Rolls Royce Phantom. Gordon Brown had just really wacked up vehicle excise duty on gas guzzlers to discourage their use. I asked my client if this higher duty had not deterred him from buying such a beast, he just laughed. £350,000 for the car, £50k p.a. for the bloke to drive it, £2k per service, so £450 VED was a spit in the ocean.
From my days supplying RR at Crewe ( Bentley now ), the alternative to a RR is not a Merc or BMW it's a yacht or another house.
The political aftermath will be interesting. Cameron will be gone quickly and a leaver in his place. But at least the Tory vote will then be in line with a sizable chunk of their MPS and their new leader.
If it's Leave then Labour are in big trouble. A leadership challenge is being muttered about - but from the same Continuity New Labour faction who always mutter, and they are fanatical Remainers. Corbyn will have followed party policy and promoted Remain, but if as it looks a good number of party supporters (or more preciently *former* supporters) are Leavers then the party is further than ever from its voters with the activists trying to pull it even further away.
There are 459 MPs for REMAIN 159 for LEAVE. What happens next if Leave win-like so much else-is a mystery. Maybe the Rupert Murdoch's Soaraway Sun can become the government?
Remain MPs in Leave areas will suffer the same fate as Scottish Labour.
Remain MPs will almost all "respect the will of the public" and become Leave supporters so it will be moot and they can Remain being an MP.
I happily spent over £50k on a BMW and a Merc in my previous life. If it was 51k - would I change my choice = of course not.
It's an absurd argument. Those buying premium brands buy premium brands. Every white good in my house was Bosch.
Exactly, Miss P., and when buying an item a few percent on the price makes no sodding difference. I haven't bought French wine for years even though it carries no import duty. I buy wines from Chile, New Zealand, Australia and, occasionally, South Africa whose prices are higher than they need be because of the import duty. Value for money is the key. .
Absolutely right. Apart from odd specials I haven’t bought French wines for years. And, Mr L I’d add Argentina to that list.
Not at all, the Japanese and Koreans will more than fill any gap in consumer choice and that's before you add in the USA and China.
The only area I can see an issue on cars is luxury marques, but if it means the british middle classes have to struggle by in a Jaguar, Bentley or Lexus I'm sure they'll survive.
It isn't beyond the realms of possibility that the Germans would move some production to the UK single market to protect market share, the same argument Remain make about financial institutions.
UK sales to the domestic market have risen 42% in the last three years, but there is enormous scope to replace primarily EU imports with domestic cars.
The political aftermath will be interesting. Cameron will be gone quickly and a leaver in his place. But at least the Tory vote will then be in line with a sizable chunk of their MPS and their new leader.
If it's Leave then Labour are in big trouble. A leadership challenge is being muttered about - but from the same Continuity New Labour faction who always mutter, and they are fanatical Remainers. Corbyn will have followed party policy and promoted Remain, but if as it looks a good number of party supporters (or more preciently *former* supporters) are Leavers then the party is further than ever from its voters with the activists trying to pull it even further away.
There are 459 MPs for REMAIN 159 for LEAVE. What happens next if Leave win-like so much else-is a mystery. Maybe the Rupert Murdoch's Soaraway Sun can become the government?
Remain MPs in Leave areas will suffer the same fate as Scottish Labour.
...Tory one's yes. The most likely result after a no confidence vote is likely to be a General Election and a Labour government. So a small silver lining
The reduced competition is primarily a function of the EU which has raised barriers to non-EU importers over the years to protect it's own industry. These are not just in the form of tariffs but also in import agreements which fix the number of cars that will be permitted to come in. Getting round these barriers was one of the main reasons Honda, Nissan and Toyota set up factories in the UK.
That's not the only reason, of course. Nissan and the like try to carry as little inventory as possible, and have the shortest lead-times between ordering and car arrival.
If you have 10,000 vehicles taking a two-week transit time, then having to clear customs at Felixstowe, you are carrying a lot more inventory than you'd like and customers aren't able to change options right up until delivery. Simply, delivering vehicles from a long way away adds costs and entails compromises. Even when there aren't tariffs, companies will still look to place production near to demand.
If anyone wants to know why I keep disappearing from time to time, it's because someone on PB habitually puts me in Limbo* for various periods and for reasons only known to them.
If anyone thinks I'm being paranoid - I am.
*applicant status; where one can sign in but cannot post.
It's a conspiracy... there's a few about on PB in these heady days...
The political aftermath will be interesting. Cameron will be gone quickly and a leaver in his place. But at least the Tory vote will then be in line with a sizable chunk of their MPS and their new leader.
If it's Leave then Labour are in big trouble. A leadership challenge is being muttered about - but from the same Continuity New Labour faction who always mutter, and they are fanatical Remainers. Corbyn will have followed party policy and promoted Remain, but if as it looks a good number of party supporters (or more preciently *former* supporters) are Leavers then the party is further than ever from its voters with the activists trying to pull it even further away.
There are 459 MPs for REMAIN 159 for LEAVE. What happens next if Leave win-like so much else-is a mystery. Maybe the Rupert Murdoch's Soaraway Sun can become the government?
Remain MPs in Leave areas will suffer the same fate as Scottish Labour.
Remain MPs will almost all "respect the will of the public" and become Leave supporters so it will be moot and they can Remain being an MP.
Unless something we don’t yet know about happens the next election is four years away, by which time exact positions on Brexit will be blurred.
Will be interesting to see the figures for Witney, though.
The political aftermath will be interesting. Cameron will be gone quickly and a leaver in his place. But at least the Tory vote will then be in line with a sizable chunk of their MPS and their new leader.
If it's Leave then Labour are in big trouble. A leadership challenge is being muttered about - but from the same Continuity New Labour faction who always mutter, and they are fanatical Remainers. Corbyn will have followed party policy and promoted Remain, but if as it looks a good number of party supporters (or more preciently *former* supporters) are Leavers then the party is further than ever from its voters with the activists trying to pull it even further away.
There are 459 MPs for REMAIN 159 for LEAVE. What happens next if Leave win-like so much else-is a mystery. Maybe the Rupert Murdoch's Soaraway Sun can become the government?
Remain MPs in Leave areas will suffer the same fate as Scottish Labour.
Remain MPs will almost all "respect the will of the public" and become Leave supporters so it will be moot and they can Remain being an MP.
I tend to agree, but some are currently indulging their imaginations with these people being permanently obstructive rather than adapting.
The Dilbert guy wrote this six months ago, after the San Bernardino shootings:-
'Here I am not talking about logic and reason. I’m talking about the tendency of human brains to form automatic associations.
But if you hear a loud noise downstairs, and you live in a dangerous neighborhood, you’re probably hoping Dad gets to the baseball bat before Mom, even if they are equally capable. You’re a sexist that way, in your irrational brain.
@OldKingCole If Leave win, those who sought it need to be left to pursue it to its logical conclusion. There can be no arguments about stabs in the backs or cheating the British public.
Yes, it would probably be grim, but the public are entitled to have their vote honoured.
Agree entirely - the consequences for the UK would be even grimmer than LEAVEing (which I think will be a bit grim, but we'll kbo) if MPs turned round and said 'Thanks for that, we're ignoring it'. The question has been put, the answer must be respected. If it is LEAVE I suspect Cameron will invoke Article 50 before the men in grey suits get to Downing Street.
There will surely be no point in maintaining a classification of LEAVER and REMAINER after the referendum. If LEAVE wins I expect a rearguard action to ensure a swift EFTA/EEA deal with the issue of immigration heavily fudged. This is likely to produce an explosive row that will make the referendum campaign look civil.
Miss Vance, quite. If the vote were Leave and it were ignored, millions of voters would shift from the major parties. UKIP would have a field day and other parties might well arise. Not to mention the democratic disgrace of ignoring such a vote.
Likewise, if Remain win, I hope it's by more than the late registrations during the deadline, to avoid a legal challenge.
The political aftermath will be interesting. Cameron will be gone quickly and a leaver in his place. But at least the Tory vote will then be in line with a sizable chunk of their MPS and their new leader.
If it's Leave then Labour are in big trouble. A leadership challenge is being muttered about - but from the same Continuity New Labour faction who always mutter, and they are fanatical Remainers. Corbyn will have followed party policy and promoted Remain, but if as it looks a good number of party supporters (or more preciently *former* supporters) are Leavers then the party is further than ever from its voters with the activists trying to pull it even further away.
There are 459 MPs for REMAIN 159 for LEAVE. What happens next if Leave win-like so much else-is a mystery. Maybe the Rupert Murdoch's Soaraway Sun can become the government?
Remain MPs in Leave areas will suffer the same fate as Scottish Labour.
It depends on the level of economic turmoil that ensues. If it's nasty then the Tories will take full ownership - Cameron for calling the referendum and messing up the campaign; Boris for being the chief Brexit architect. Labour Remainers (and the Lib Dems and the Greens) will be ideally placed to bash the Tories and reap significant political rewards. 'I told you so' is a highly underrated refrain. The potential damage of Brexit to the Tories could make Black Wednesday look like a picnic.
This site is starting to remind me of M.A.S.H. Bombs going off everywhere with Rod Crosby wandering through the craters trying to devise a new hairstyle for Trump
@SouthamObserver They're still doing it. The scraps that one might charitably call Leave's economic policy are also based on assumed high levels of immigration.
I think it is irrational to expect Leave to have a complete economic policy, or a complete policy on pretty much anything for that matter. They aren't a shadow government - how could they be expected to be, given that they draw support from a broad range of both left and right political backgrounds? Moreover, even if they did produce a complete manifesto covering how Leave would run the country in the event of Brexit, they'd have no democratic legitimacy for doing so because this isn't a general election and we are not voting people in to implement their policy set. They'd be making pledges they aren't even being elected to keep.
I agree that the current situation is unsatisfactory, whereby Leave campaigners can state how the "savings" of Brexit could be spent on a dozen different things, depending on which Leave campaigner is speaking - but it is only to be expected that left and right-wing Brexiteers have different opinions on where the money should be spent, and it is up to the elected government (not the referendum victors) to decide. Similarly for whether the UK should remain in the EEA, what kind of immigration system should be set up, and so on.
This is really a design flaw in the referendum process. But I can't see a good way around it. Presumably the UK government did have both a Plan A and a Plan B depending on how the renegotiation process went (otherwise their threats to leave without a deal would have hardly been credible). I suppose we could have had a Prime Minister acting as "neutral arbiter", awaiting the decision of the electorate, and campaigners on either side putting the two plans to the public. But that doesn't really work, for political reasons.
I happily spent over £50k on a BMW and a Merc in my previous life. If it was 51k - would I change my choice = of course not.
It's an absurd argument. Those buying premium brands buy premium brands. Every white good in my house was Bosch.
Exactly, Miss P., and when buying an item a few percent on the price makes no sodding difference. I haven't bought French wine for years even though it carries no import duty. I buy wines from Chile, New Zealand, Australia and, occasionally, South Africa whose prices are higher than they need be because of the import duty. Value for money is the key. .
Absolutely right. Apart from odd specials I haven’t bought French wines for years. And, Mr L I’d add Argentina to that list.
Me neither - all new world or elsewhere. I haven't bought German wine since the 80s
The Dilbert guy wrote this six months ago, after the San Bernardino shootings:-
'Here I am not talking about logic and reason. I’m talking about the tendency of human brains to form automatic associations.
But if you hear a loud noise downstairs, and you live in a dangerous neighborhood, you’re probably hoping Dad gets to the baseball bat before Mom, even if they are equally capable. You’re a sexist that way, in your irrational brain.
I happily spent over £50k on a BMW and a Merc in my previous life. If it was 51k - would I change my choice = of course not.
It's an absurd argument. Those buying premium brands buy premium brands. Every white good in my house was Bosch.
Exactly, Miss P., and when buying an item a few percent on the price makes no sodding difference. I haven't bought French wine for years even though it carries no import duty. I buy wines from Chile, New Zealand, Australia and, occasionally, South Africa whose prices are higher than they need be because of the import duty. Value for money is the key. .
Absolutely right. Apart from odd specials I haven’t bought French wines for years. And, Mr L I’d add Argentina to that list.
Me neither - all new world or elsewhere. I haven't bought German wine since the 80s
Nor have I, although I bought quite a lot at one time. If I want light whites I’ll buy our local wine.
I happily spent over £50k on a BMW and a Merc in my previous life. If it was 51k - would I change my choice = of course not.
It's an absurd argument. Those buying premium brands buy premium brands. Every white good in my house was Bosch.
Exactly, Miss P., and when buying an item a few percent on the price makes no sodding difference. I haven't bought French wine for years even though it carries no import duty. I buy wines from Chile, New Zealand, Australia and, occasionally, South Africa whose prices are higher than they need be because of the import duty. Value for money is the key.
On a tangent when I was working I had a very wealthy client who amongst his cars had a brand New Rolls Royce Phantom. Gordon Brown had just really wacked up vehicle excise duty on gas guzzlers to discourage their use. I asked my client if this higher duty had not deterred him from buying such a beast, he just laughed. £350,000 for the car, £50k p.a. for the bloke to drive it, £2k per service, so £450 VED was a spit in the ocean.
From my days supplying RR at Crewe ( Bentley now ), the alternative to a RR is not a Merc or BMW it's a yacht or another house.
Yup and my brother-in-law who works at the RR plant at Goodwood tells me they are still working flat out, mostly for clients in Russia and China.
He also tells me that the body presses come from Germany and they are having serious quality control issues. So much for vaunted German engineering.
As someone who is voting leave there is one thing that worries me greatly and that is the possible super influx of EU citizens into the UK ahead of any new controls that may be put into play. It could dwarf what has happened over the last 5 years. Would temporary restrictions be put in place pending new rules?
@bbclaurak: At Corbyn event, just been speaking to dep leader Tom Watson - he tells me there should be controls on freedom of movement for EU migrants
@bbclaurak: Watson-voters been 'telling us for a long time' party needs to do more on immigration, suggests any future govt need to curb freedom of movt
A GE could see Brexit Tories arguing for EFTA/EEA on economic grounds, and Labour arguing for withdrawal to stop free movement
@Sandpit I'm going for Option B. The referendum is really hard for pollsters to model because of its unique nature. Add that to the struggles that pollsters are already facing and why risk the last shreds of your credibility on a fool's errand?
But NB: htt://twitter.com/martinboon/status/742655711738531840
Agree with you on that one. Unfortunately it seems that polling has become a much more difficult exercise over the past few years, as we all discussed on here after the general election. It's very difficult to see how they move forward from here - it must be affecting their other, paid, work as well as the high profile rather than highly profitable political polling work.
I happily spent over £50k on a BMW and a Merc in my previous life. If it was 51k - would I change my choice = of course not.
It's an absurd argument. Those buying premium brands buy premium brands. Every white good in my house was Bosch.
Exactly, Miss P., and when buying an item a few percent on the price makes no sodding difference. I haven't bought French wine for years even though it carries no import duty. I buy wines from Chile, New Zealand, Australia and, occasionally, South Africa whose prices are higher than they need be because of the import duty. Value for money is the key. .
Absolutely right. Apart from odd specials I haven’t bought French wines for years. And, Mr L I’d add Argentina to that list.
Ah, Argentina. Well, Mr. Cole, there are sometimes when value for money is not the prime consideration.
The Dilbert guy wrote this six months ago, after the San Bernardino shootings:-
'Here I am not talking about logic and reason. I’m talking about the tendency of human brains to form automatic associations.
But if you hear a loud noise downstairs, and you live in a dangerous neighborhood, you’re probably hoping Dad gets to the baseball bat before Mom, even if they are equally capable. You’re a sexist that way, in your irrational brain.
Comments
Anyhow, the point I wanted to make over this series of posts is there is a general acceptance that NI and overseas voters are worth something like 3% - 4% for remain.
I think I've demonstrated factually that this isn't the case, all up I doubt they are worth even 1% net.
Or maybe it's people changing their position.
At the last election the electorate was around 46m - about 90% of the people at voting age.
London (remain's best hope) alone will have 1m + barred this around on citizenship grounds.
https://twitter.com/claire4devizes/status/596544699529297921
As I said upthread, the easiest way to settle back in the UK with my wife would be her to arrive on a visit visa then sue the govt for her right to remain. She'd probably get legal aid to do it too, maybe even our MP could put in a good word for her
It did amuse us.
Yes, it would probably be grim, but the public are entitled to have their vote honoured.
So whatever tariff there is on imported cars it doesn't seem to make a difference to their sales.
The problem todays car industry has is there is too much choice, it;s why profitability gets hammered. You appear to think that one of the world's most globalised industries only operates out of France and Germany.
For that reason alone, the EU will not want to engage in tariff disputes.
a) We need the deal more
b) The EU will be leading the negotiations according to its timetable.
I was in Wetherspoons yesterday reading its Brexit magazine, where the founder was saying it's just like negotiating with one of his suppliers. In fact a big supply contract was coming up for renegotiation. While a deal wasn't guaranteed both companies expect a deal satisfactory for both. I thought that analogy was closer than Tim Martin realised. What Wetherspoons thinks is satisfactory and what his supplier thinks is probably quite different because of their different negotiating powers. Wetherspoons would be the EU and the supplier the UK
The only area I can see an issue on cars is luxury marques, but if it means the british middle classes have to struggle by in a Jaguar, Bentley or Lexus I'm sure they'll survive.
If we look at say Barnsley Central, the population in 2011 was 85,714 and the electorate in 2010 was 64,732. So that's 75% registration rate which isn't bad if you consider some will be children. Of that 57% turned out at the last election
If we compare with Cambridge, the population in 2011 was 114,740 and the electorate in 2010 was 75,259. So that's 65% registration rate which makes sense if you consider there will be EU nationals there etc who aren't eligible to vote. Of that 62% turned out to vote
It's an absurd argument. Those buying premium brands buy premium brands. Every white good in my house was Bosch.
If anyone wants to know why I keep disappearing from time to time, it's because someone on PB habitually puts me in Limbo* for various periods and for reasons only known to them.
If anyone thinks I'm being paranoid - I am.
*applicant status; where one can sign in but cannot post.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2014/06/who-runs-our-mosques/
Ed Balls has said we should renegotiate to get something on migration so I suspect they will now offer an emergency brake after all.
The conspiracy theorist might surmise that they don't want headlines of Leave leads the week before that might effect that outcome, more likely they haven't got a clue and don't want headlines like they got last May about all the polls being crap!
Glad we cleared that up.
But NB: https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/742655711738531840
I love my avatar pic - it will take something extraordinary to see it replaced.
Getting round these barriers was one of the main reasons Honda, Nissan and Toyota set up factories in the UK.
I can see why remain would like to pretend this is something special, but there are also external factors at play.
'Here I am not talking about logic and reason. I’m talking about the tendency of human brains to form automatic associations. Those automatic connections that are disconnected from reason are how hypnotists can hypnotize and influencers can influence. Reason aside, when you observe an older male authority figure making a hard choice on your behalf, it just feels dadlike. You can’t help make the connection.
The Dad idea won’t fully emerge until the general election…when Dad runs against mom. Speaking of Mom, you love what she stands for, but she can be such a bitch sometimes. Still, if you need a sandwich, or a hug, or some understanding, you probably pick mom.
But if you hear a loud noise downstairs, and you live in a dangerous neighborhood, you’re probably hoping Dad gets to the baseball bat before Mom, even if they are equally capable. You’re a sexist that way, in your irrational brain.
According to the Master Persuader filter, the selection of the next U.S. president is dependent on whether the public is feeling hungry or scared in the coming months. I’m betting on scared.'
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/134791529391/risk-management-trump-persuasion-series
If Leave win then quite a few politicians are going to regret prostituting their beliefs into thinking they only had a future supporting Remain.
I discovered my ancient goat avatar on Gravatar is still in use on some sites. I've no idea how to change it.
The angora goat Zac shuffled off his mortal coil several years ago.
Perhaps the Guardian is not going to pay ICM any more for polls which show LEAVE leading.
Doesn't she have to go through one or two procedures first?
On a tangent when I was working I had a very wealthy client who amongst his cars had a brand New Rolls Royce Phantom. Gordon Brown had just really wacked up vehicle excise duty on gas guzzlers to discourage their use. I asked my client if this higher duty had not deterred him from buying such a beast, he just laughed. £350,000 for the car, £50k p.a. for the bloke to drive it, £2k per service, so £450 VED was a spit in the ocean.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3639961/Orlando-terrorist-went-gay-club-Pulse-dozen-times-got-drunk-belligerent-talked-wife-kid-massacring-49-people-there.html
UK sales to the domestic market have risen 42% in the last three years, but there is enormous scope to replace primarily EU imports with domestic cars.
If you have 10,000 vehicles taking a two-week transit time, then having to clear customs at Felixstowe, you are carrying a lot more inventory than you'd like and customers aren't able to change options right up until delivery. Simply, delivering vehicles from a long way away adds costs and entails compromises. Even when there aren't tariffs, companies will still look to place production near to demand.
Will be interesting to see the figures for Witney, though.
Likewise, if Remain win, I hope it's by more than the late registrations during the deadline, to avoid a legal challenge.
I agree that the current situation is unsatisfactory, whereby Leave campaigners can state how the "savings" of Brexit could be spent on a dozen different things, depending on which Leave campaigner is speaking - but it is only to be expected that left and right-wing Brexiteers have different opinions on where the money should be spent, and it is up to the elected government (not the referendum victors) to decide. Similarly for whether the UK should remain in the EEA, what kind of immigration system should be set up, and so on.
This is really a design flaw in the referendum process. But I can't see a good way around it. Presumably the UK government did have both a Plan A and a Plan B depending on how the renegotiation process went (otherwise their threats to leave without a deal would have hardly been credible). I suppose we could have had a Prime Minister acting as "neutral arbiter", awaiting the decision of the electorate, and campaigners on either side putting the two plans to the public. But that doesn't really work, for political reasons.
All pre-Orlando in any case.
Remain was ahead in the polls too, until recently.
He also tells me that the body presses come from Germany and they are having serious quality control issues. So much for vaunted German engineering.
It could dwarf what has happened over the last 5 years.
Would temporary restrictions be put in place pending new rules?
@bbclaurak: Watson-voters been 'telling us for a long time' party needs to do more on immigration, suggests any future govt need to curb freedom of movt
A GE could see Brexit Tories arguing for EFTA/EEA on economic grounds, and Labour arguing for withdrawal to stop free movement
Buy Corbyn...
Does he think that enough British voters might believe it to be?
The story of the polling is that Trump is losing it.