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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters TV Show: Looking at The White House

SystemSystem Posts: 12,266
edited June 2016 in General

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,615
    edited June 2016
    1st?

    Back from the pub, did I miss Goerge Osborne getting his ar$e handed to him by Andrew Neil?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,305
    I actually think that Vote Leave are justified in using the gross figure, but I can certainly see the objections to it.

    What I can't understand is, why would that make someone decide to switch sides (if that is what she is going to do)?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,931
    tlg86 said:

    I actually think that Vote Leave are justified in using the gross figure, but I can certainly see the objections to it.

    What I can't understand is, why would that make someone decide to switch sides (if that is what she is going to do)?

    Gross after rebate, yes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    edited June 2016
    Apologies for the deleted thread. I was expecting the TV show later on tonight. So I had to nix my thread for this.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    tlg86 said:

    I actually think that Vote Leave are justified in using the gross figure, but I can certainly see the objections to it.

    What I can't understand is, why would that make someone decide to switch sides (if that is what she is going to do)?

    I can't see an objection that holds water.

    If you were to ask me how much tax I pay, I'd give you the gross figure, not the figure minus the value of services I receive in return.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,305
    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I actually think that Vote Leave are justified in using the gross figure, but I can certainly see the objections to it.

    What I can't understand is, why would that make someone decide to switch sides (if that is what she is going to do)?

    Gross after rebate, yes.
    Yes, they've talked about sending money to Brussels. By all means point out that the rebate is not secure, but they should stick to what actually happens.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,258
    FPT Re: Sarah Wollaston: I don't know what she'll do, but she may just abandon the campaign with a statement.

    If she does defect to Remain, I think that'll be viewed as quite cynical given her views up until now, which will then be thrown back at her.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    Sandpit said:

    1st?

    Back from the pub, did I miss Goerge Osborne getting his ar$e handed to him by Andrew Neil?

    George was Magic, Leave are Tragic.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Apologies for the deleted thread. I was expecting the TV show a later on tonight. So I had to nix my thread for this.

    Why don't you tell us what % of those you canvassed were for Remain?

    Further canvassing in SE London suggests we have c. 65% for Leave. Seems too good to be true, but that's the raw data. I'm going out tomorrow.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    I actually think that Vote Leave are justified in using the gross figure, but I can certainly see the objections to it.

    What I can't understand is, why would that make someone decide to switch sides (if that is what she is going to do)?

    I can't see an objection that holds water.

    If you were to ask me how much tax I pay, I'd give you the gross figure, not the figure minus the value of services I receive in return.
    Net of rebate is the correct figure to use.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    I can't see an objection that holds water.

    I will hazard a guess that her objection might be to the next line which suggests we could spend it on the NHS instead, a blatant lie whatever the gross figure
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Sandpit said:

    1st?

    Back from the pub, did I miss Goerge Osborne getting his ar$e handed to him by Andrew Neil?

    Yes, and no. According to which side you back.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    To actively switch campaigning from one side to the other would be ridiculous especially for a politician who most would assume should already be well informed on the EU. If she is just leaving Vote Leave because she's not convinced, fair enough.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713
    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT Re: Sarah Wollaston: I don't know what she'll do, but she may just abandon the campaign with a statement.

    If she does defect to Remain, I think that'll be viewed as quite cynical given her views up until now, which will then be thrown back at her.

    FPT


    If she defects to remain her integrity goes. Sajid Javid squared.

    The Tories are really not having a good campaign, reputations are being shredded.

    Meanwhile Jezza probably needs new bollocks as he's laughed the last lot off.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,258
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    I actually think that Vote Leave are justified in using the gross figure, but I can certainly see the objections to it.

    What I can't understand is, why would that make someone decide to switch sides (if that is what she is going to do)?

    I can't see an objection that holds water.

    If you were to ask me how much tax I pay, I'd give you the gross figure, not the figure minus the value of services I receive in return.
    Net of rebate is the correct figure to use.
    It's legitimate to say gross contributions per week, and then say our amount is dependent upon a rebate negotiated with the EU, which could be chipped away in future.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    One way to look at it is that the £350 million is our current liability - and that we could negotiate to pay that amount in return of some additional benefit (don't know what).

    Of course the EU, being skint, desperately need more money, so they may increase the amount during the current 7-year negotiations. This is a serious risk, not as bad as Armageddon or world war three, but nasty since we are running a budget and trade deficit.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,931
    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    I actually think that Vote Leave are justified in using the gross figure, but I can certainly see the objections to it.

    What I can't understand is, why would that make someone decide to switch sides (if that is what she is going to do)?

    I can't see an objection that holds water.

    If you were to ask me how much tax I pay, I'd give you the gross figure, not the figure minus the value of services I receive in return.
    I think money you don't decide how to spend (CAP grants and the like) is one thing. But the cash rebate is another.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Casino_Royale said:

    which could be chipped away in future.

    We have a veto
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT Re: Sarah Wollaston: I don't know what she'll do, but she may just abandon the campaign with a statement.

    If she does defect to Remain, I think that'll be viewed as quite cynical given her views up until now, which will then be thrown back at her.

    As recently as Sunday, Sarah Wollaston published an article in the Dartmouth Chronicle, putting the case for Leave, so I'd be surprised if she's changed her mind.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Its been a long time coming, but finally Andrew Neil got George Osborne back in the hot seat, and I thought interview was excellent. Andrew Neil was as usual, extremely robust and well informed, by far our best political interviewer. Osborne also handled this very combative interview well, remaining calm and focused with the task in hand.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Vote Leave arguing amongst themselves whether it is £350m or £200m seems really poor...

    ... for Remain who look bad (either way) while this is in the news.

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Interesting thoughts.
    @anandMenon1 says EU will be smaller in 30yrs time to @ITVAllegra https://www.facebook.com/itvnews/

    Allegra Stratton Retweeted
    UK in a Changing EU @UKandEU
    @angusarmstrong8 said he'd be surprised all countries in euro now will be in it in 5/6yrs @itvnews @ITVAllegra https://www.facebook.com/itvnews/
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    I can't see an objection that holds water.

    I will hazard a guess that her objection might be to the next line which suggests we could spend it on the NHS instead, a blatant lie whatever the gross figure
    We could spend it on whatever we wish.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Twitter
    Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardman 1h1 hour ago
    Am not always v complimentary about Osborne but he is coming across v well in this interview. Human and statesmanlike.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,580
    tlg86 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I actually think that Vote Leave are justified in using the gross figure, but I can certainly see the objections to it.

    What I can't understand is, why would that make someone decide to switch sides (if that is what she is going to do)?

    Gross after rebate, yes.
    Yes, they've talked about sending money to Brussels. By all means point out that the rebate is not secure, but they should stick to what actually happens.
    Which is that we actually send about £250m per week (not £350m), and then some of this comes back in the form of various benefits.

    The £250m figure would be reasonable to use, so long as it is pointed out that this is a gross amount. The £350m figure is obviously completely unjustifiable. Heaven knows why Leave are using it and leaving themselves open to attack on it. Doesn't £250m sound enough?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    I actually think that Vote Leave are justified in using the gross figure, but I can certainly see the objections to it.

    What I can't understand is, why would that make someone decide to switch sides (if that is what she is going to do)?

    I can't see an objection that holds water.

    If you were to ask me how much tax I pay, I'd give you the gross figure, not the figure minus the value of services I receive in return.
    Net of rebate is the correct figure to use.
    That would be £290m a week.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    fitalass said:

    Its been a long time coming, but finally Andrew Neil got George Osborne back in the hot seat, and I thought interview was excellent. Andrew Neil was as usual, extremely robust and well informed, by far our best political interviewer. Osborne also handled this very combative interview well, remaining calm and focused with the task in hand.

    Good Evening Fitalass

    They obviously showed a different interview in Deeside. According to all of the Brexiteers who saw it in England, Osborne crashed and burned like a wingless Airbus...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,784
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    I can't see an objection that holds water.

    I will hazard a guess that her objection might be to the next line which suggests we could spend it on the NHS instead, a blatant lie whatever the gross figure
    We could spend it on whatever we wish.

    Not if leaving lowers the tax take.

  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    Whilst you could argue Sarah Wollaston is a principled politician, she is being pretty thin-skinned over this. I notice she hasn't criticised any of the Remain figures, so it will be interesting to see what this is really all about.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,258
    Scott_P said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    which could be chipped away in future.

    We have a veto
    Which Tony Blair chose not to exercise in return for a big reform of CAP.

    Which he didn't get.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,580
    MarkHopkins said:


    Vote Leave arguing amongst themselves whether it is £350m or £200m seems really poor...

    ... for Remain who look bad (either way) while this is in the news.

    You do have a point, but it also makes Leave look innumerate.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    We could spend it on whatever we wish.

    Not really.

    All of our farming subsidies come out of that number, so technically yes, we could close every farm in the UK and spend the money on importing food the NHS.

    Back in the Real World, we can't spend it on anything we like
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,615
    OUT said:

    Sandpit said:

    1st?

    Back from the pub, did I miss Goerge Osborne getting his ar$e handed to him by Andrew Neil?

    Yes, and no. According to which side you back.
    Okay, will take a look when it's online. Neil is a bloody good interviewer, the top politicians avoid him like the plague for good reason. As others have said we should see more long form forensic interviews with those who govern us.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    fitalass said:

    Its been a long time coming, but finally Andrew Neil got George Osborne back in the hot seat, and I thought interview was excellent. Andrew Neil was as usual, extremely robust and well informed, by far our best political interviewer. Osborne also handled this very combative interview well, remaining calm and focused with the task in hand.

    Good Evening Fitalass

    They obviously showed a different interview in Deeside. According to all of the Brexiteers who saw it in England, Osborne crashed and burned like a wingless Airbus...
    I know the Internet is prone to hyperbole, but, come on, this is pb not fecking Reddit or 4chan. He looked a bit discomfited by some of Neil's tactics (Turkey, immigration spring to mind), but he handled it OK.

    The only wtf for me was when he described the 100k figure as an "ambition" which is a very....flexible...way of interpreting a manifesto commitment.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,258
    Alanbrooke said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT Re: Sarah Wollaston: I don't know what she'll do, but she may just abandon the campaign with a statement.

    If she does defect to Remain, I think that'll be viewed as quite cynical given her views up until now, which will then be thrown back at her.

    FPT


    If she defects to remain her integrity goes. Sajid Javid squared.

    The Tories are really not having a good campaign, reputations are being shredded.

    Meanwhile Jezza probably needs new bollocks as he's laughed the last lot off.
    This is one of those events that is very unfortunate two weeks out from the vote.

    But, there's not much that can be done about it.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    LauraK
    Osborne now claiming immigration down to tens of thousands was an 'ambition' - it was a manifesto commitment
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Well a quick glance at #osborne and #gideon on twitter gives about 90% basically saying he was kebabed.

    Dont know who isabel hardman is but Im reminded of the Clegg/Farage debate when the great and good all thought Clegg won it immediately afterwards
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    edited June 2016
    LadyBucket said:

    Whilst you could argue Sarah Wollaston is a principled politician, she is being pretty thin-skinned over this. I notice she hasn't criticised any of the Remain figures, so it will be interesting to see what this is really all about.

    Leave are on course for the mother of all shellackings, and no one wants to be associated with a defeat that would rival Zama?

    I think the realistic situation is she's a very deeply principled politician, who causes her own side as much grief as she does her opponents.

    I suspect she'll campaign on her for Leave, and not used any of the Vote Leave lines.

    She didn't like the NHS line, and I get the feeling she's not happy with the focus on Turkey
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Casino_Royale said:

    Which Tony Blair chose not to exercise

    Just because Tony Blair was too stupid to exercise it, does not negate it's existence. Future PMs can veto changes in the rebate.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,615
    Casino_Royale said:

    Scott_P said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    which could be chipped away in future.

    We have a veto
    Which Tony Blair chose not to exercise in return for a big reform of CAP.

    Which he didn't get.
    Blair must be beside himself, desparate to get involved but knowing that every word he said would only help the Leave campaign.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    John_M said:

    I know the Internet is prone to hyperbole, but, come on, this is pb not fecking Reddit or 4chan. He looked a bit discomfited by some of Neil's tactics (Turkey, immigration spring to mind), but he handled it OK.

    Well, quite, but that was not the view of Brexiteers on the previous thread.

    Curious...
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Casino_Royale said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT Re: Sarah Wollaston: I don't know what she'll do, but she may just abandon the campaign with a statement.

    If she does defect to Remain, I think that'll be viewed as quite cynical given her views up until now, which will then be thrown back at her.

    FPT


    If she defects to remain her integrity goes. Sajid Javid squared.

    The Tories are really not having a good campaign, reputations are being shredded.

    Meanwhile Jezza probably needs new bollocks as he's laughed the last lot off.
    This is one of those events that is very unfortunate two weeks out from the vote.

    But, there's not much that can be done about it.
    Not saying this is the case here as I suspect this is NHS related but it would be good battle plan to put a couple of Tory MP sleepers in the leave campsign
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyBucket said:

    Whilst you could argue Sarah Wollaston is a principled politician, she is being pretty thin-skinned over this. I notice she hasn't criticised any of the Remain figures, so it will be interesting to see what this is really all about.

    Leave are on course for the mother of all shellackings, and no one wants to be associated with a defeat that would rival Zama?

    I think the realistic thing is she's a very deeply principled politician, who causes her own side as much grief as she does her opponents.

    I suspect she'll campaign on her for Leave, and not used any of the Vote Leave lines.

    She didn't like the NHS line, and I get the feeling she's not happy with the focus on Turkey
    Gonna tell us how tonight went on the doorsteps? Cat got your tongue?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,258
    Sandpit said:

    OUT said:

    Sandpit said:

    1st?

    Back from the pub, did I miss Goerge Osborne getting his ar$e handed to him by Andrew Neil?

    Yes, and no. According to which side you back.
    Okay, will take a look when it's online. Neil is a bloody good interviewer, the top politicians avoid him like the plague for good reason. As others have said we should see more long form forensic interviews with those who govern us.
    You don't get forensic interviews like that on our behalf with the 5 EU Presidents.

    That's why I want to Leave.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Alanbrooke said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT Re: Sarah Wollaston: I don't know what she'll do, but she may just abandon the campaign with a statement.

    If she does defect to Remain, I think that'll be viewed as quite cynical given her views up until now, which will then be thrown back at her.

    FPT


    If she defects to remain her integrity goes. Sajid Javid squared.

    The Tories are really not having a good campaign, reputations are being shredded.

    Meanwhile Jezza probably needs new bollocks as he's laughed the last lot off.
    Indeed, Mr. Brooke. There was much talk on here this morning of the damage John Major did to the Conservative Party. Cameron seems to have studied that period and drawn completely the wrong lessons. His arrogance, short-termism and almost complete absence of leadership skills would appear to have ripped his party in twain. Then he is going to piss-off to spend more time with his millions and leave the whole freakin' mess in someone else's lap.

    If we had a half-competent opposition they would be laughing all the way to the next GE.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DouglasCarswell: Do you want to be on the same side as George Osborne on June 23rd? #BBCDebate

    @johnprescott: Do you want to be in the same party as Nigel Farage? https://t.co/BKLqVMUJ55

    :)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    We could spend it on whatever we wish.

    Not really.

    All of our farming subsidies come out of that number, so technically yes, we could close every farm in the UK and spend the money on importing food the NHS.

    Back in the Real World, we can't spend it on anything we like
    We might decide that paying big sums of public money to wealthy people isn't the best use we could make of it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,258
    Scott_P said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Which Tony Blair chose not to exercise

    Just because Tony Blair was too stupid to exercise it, does not negate it's existence. Future PMs can veto changes in the rebate.
    Exactly. I don't want to run the risk of a naive future UK Government trying (again) to get "reform" at our expense.

    The point is that it's a negotiated settlement by EU leaders every 7 years, not a permanent feature. It's on the table every single time. Enough.

    Vote Leave.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyBucket said:

    Whilst you could argue Sarah Wollaston is a principled politician, she is being pretty thin-skinned over this. I notice she hasn't criticised any of the Remain figures, so it will be interesting to see what this is really all about.

    Leave are on course for the mother of all shellackings, and no one wants to be associated with a defeat that would rival Zama?

    I think the realistic thing is she's a very deeply principled politician, who causes her own side as much grief as she does her opponents.

    I suspect she'll campaign on her for Leave, and not used any of the Vote Leave lines.

    She didn't like the NHS line, and I get the feeling she's not happy with the focus on Turkey
    Gonna tell us how tonight went on the doorsteps? Cat got your tongue?
    If tonight's voters are representative of England, then England will vote Remain.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    We might decide that paying big sums of public money to wealthy people isn't the best use we could make of it.

    You're right, instead of paying it to British farmers we could pay it French farmers.

    If that's the Leave message, who wouldn't vote for that...
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    SouthamObserver said:

    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    I can't see an objection that holds water.

    I will hazard a guess that her objection might be to the next line which suggests we could spend it on the NHS instead, a blatant lie whatever the gross figure
    We could spend it on whatever we wish.

    Not if leaving lowers the tax take.

    It won't.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BethRigby: Am told by someone in the know that @sarahwollaston IS poised to defect from #Voteleave to #remain (as picked up by @JGForsyth)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,258
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyBucket said:

    Whilst you could argue Sarah Wollaston is a principled politician, she is being pretty thin-skinned over this. I notice she hasn't criticised any of the Remain figures, so it will be interesting to see what this is really all about.

    Leave are on course for the mother of all shellackings, and no one wants to be associated with a defeat that would rival Zama?

    I think the realistic thing is she's a very deeply principled politician, who causes her own side as much grief as she does her opponents.

    I suspect she'll campaign on her for Leave, and not used any of the Vote Leave lines.

    She didn't like the NHS line, and I get the feeling she's not happy with the focus on Turkey
    Gonna tell us how tonight went on the doorsteps? Cat got your tongue?
    If tonight's voters are representative of England, then England will vote Remain.
    You are desperate.
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyBucket said:

    Whilst you could argue Sarah Wollaston is a principled politician, she is being pretty thin-skinned over this. I notice she hasn't criticised any of the Remain figures, so it will be interesting to see what this is really all about.

    Leave are on course for the mother of all shellackings, and no one wants to be associated with a defeat that would rival Zama?

    I think the realistic thing is she's a very deeply principled politician, who causes her own side as much grief as she does her opponents.

    I suspect she'll campaign on her for Leave, and not used any of the Vote Leave lines.

    She didn't like the NHS line, and I get the feeling she's not happy with the focus on Turkey
    Gonna tell us how tonight went on the doorsteps? Cat got your tongue?
    If tonight's voters are representative of England, then England will vote Remain.
    Pathetically evasive.

    Remain are frit!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Scott_P said:

    John_M said:

    I know the Internet is prone to hyperbole, but, come on, this is pb not fecking Reddit or 4chan. He looked a bit discomfited by some of Neil's tactics (Turkey, immigration spring to mind), but he handled it OK.

    Well, quite, but that was not the view of Brexiteers on the previous thread.

    Curious...
    I'm a died-in-the-wool Brexiter and I'm ashamed of the bollocks that my own 'side' put out half the time (though I think the Remain campaign is more egregious in this regard).

    However, I don't see it as a partisan issue. I'm happy when people vote Leave, but I'm not going get my jimmies rustled by those that want to Remain.

    No one knows what the future will bring. There's no control for this experiment, whatever the result. I just hope the bickering will die down reasonably quickly, otherwise I shall have to forsake PB, which is one of my minor pleasures, and thus, a small shame.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Oh - if more poor countries join then the UK GDP/ person increases compared with the EU average - so our contribution goes up.

    Just another inconvenient fact Remain don't like to tell you.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Scott_P said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Which Tony Blair chose not to exercise

    Just because Tony Blair was too stupid to exercise it, does not negate it's existence. Future PMs can veto changes in the rebate.
    Leavers have more of a problem with UK politicians making the "wrong" decisions now, in the past, and potentially in the future, than with the EU.

    If only they would admit it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyBucket said:

    Whilst you could argue Sarah Wollaston is a principled politician, she is being pretty thin-skinned over this. I notice she hasn't criticised any of the Remain figures, so it will be interesting to see what this is really all about.

    Leave are on course for the mother of all shellackings, and no one wants to be associated with a defeat that would rival Zama?

    I think the realistic thing is she's a very deeply principled politician, who causes her own side as much grief as she does her opponents.

    I suspect she'll campaign on her for Leave, and not used any of the Vote Leave lines.

    She didn't like the NHS line, and I get the feeling she's not happy with the focus on Turkey
    Gonna tell us how tonight went on the doorsteps? Cat got your tongue?
    If tonight's voters are representative of England, then England will vote Remain.
    You are desperate.
    Last year

    Me: Another good canvassing session in Pudsey

    IOS: You're desperate.

    Plus ça change
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    John_M said:

    No one knows what the future will bring.

    I agree, but sadly again you are out of touch with your bedfellows
    Sean_F said:


    Not if leaving lowers the tax take.

    It won't.

    Certainty must be the Brexit watchword, no room for doubt, or debate...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Am told by someone in the know that @sarahwollaston IS poised to defect from #Voteleave to #remain (as picked up by @JGForsyth)

    What a fine principled, patriotic lioness
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    John_M said:

    I just hope the bickering will die down reasonably quickly, otherwise I shall have to forsake PB, which is one of my minor pleasures, and thus, a small shame.

    On this point I agree entirely, and commend your reasonable approach
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    edited June 2016
    Sean_F said:

    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    We could spend it on whatever we wish.

    Not really.

    All of our farming subsidies come out of that number, so technically yes, we could close every farm in the UK and spend the money on importing food the NHS.

    Back in the Real World, we can't spend it on anything we like
    We might decide that paying big sums of public money to wealthy people isn't the best use we could make of it.
    What price are you making on the zero rating of home energy supplies within a year of a Leave vote?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    We might decide that paying big sums of public money to wealthy people isn't the best use we could make of it.

    You're right, instead of paying it to British farmers we could pay it French farmers.

    If that's the Leave message, who wouldn't vote for that...
    Do you think that all businesses should receive public subsidies or is it restricted to agribusinesses?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,258
    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyBucket said:

    Whilst you could argue Sarah Wollaston is a principled politician, she is being pretty thin-skinned over this. I notice she hasn't criticised any of the Remain figures, so it will be interesting to see what this is really all about.

    Leave are on course for the mother of all shellackings, and no one wants to be associated with a defeat that would rival Zama?

    I think the realistic thing is she's a very deeply principled politician, who causes her own side as much grief as she does her opponents.

    I suspect she'll campaign on her for Leave, and not used any of the Vote Leave lines.

    She didn't like the NHS line, and I get the feeling she's not happy with the focus on Turkey
    Gonna tell us how tonight went on the doorsteps? Cat got your tongue?
    If tonight's voters are representative of England, then England will vote Remain.
    Pathetically evasive.

    Remain are frit!
    You won't get a honest open answer from TSE.

    His role is to advocate and push Remain.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What a fine principled, patriotic lioness

    If you troll any harder you might hurt yourself.
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Scott_P said:

    John_M said:

    I know the Internet is prone to hyperbole, but, come on, this is pb not fecking Reddit or 4chan. He looked a bit discomfited by some of Neil's tactics (Turkey, immigration spring to mind), but he handled it OK.

    Well, quite, but that was not the view of Brexiteers on the previous thread.

    Curious...
    It is amazing that not every person who wants to leave the EU has exactly the same thoughts about absolutely everything else.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyBucket said:

    Whilst you could argue Sarah Wollaston is a principled politician, she is being pretty thin-skinned over this. I notice she hasn't criticised any of the Remain figures, so it will be interesting to see what this is really all about.

    Leave are on course for the mother of all shellackings, and no one wants to be associated with a defeat that would rival Zama?

    I think the realistic thing is she's a very deeply principled politician, who causes her own side as much grief as she does her opponents.

    I suspect she'll campaign on her for Leave, and not used any of the Vote Leave lines.

    She didn't like the NHS line, and I get the feeling she's not happy with the focus on Turkey
    Gonna tell us how tonight went on the doorsteps? Cat got your tongue?
    If tonight's voters are representative of England, then England will vote Remain.
    That is a bit naff, young Darth Eagles. It has about as much validity as me saying if the blokes up the pup earlier are representative of England, then England will vote to leave.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,146
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Am told by someone in the know that @sarahwollaston IS poised to defect from #Voteleave to #remain (as picked up by @JGForsyth)

    What a fine principled, patriotic lioness
    Next Health Secretary ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    Do you think that all businesses should receive public subsidies or is it restricted to agribusinesses?

    I think you can't take the existing subsidies away from agribusiness and "give it to the NHS' without consequences, which was my original point that you are desperately trying to squirm away from
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    So Stewart Jackson is telling me turnout is going to be below 60%.

    Definitely going to buy turnout now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,258
    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Am told by someone in the know that @sarahwollaston IS poised to defect from #Voteleave to #remain (as picked up by @JGForsyth)

    Sarah Wollaston, less than 96 hours ago:

    "Last week’s deal has underlined the reality that our Eurozone partners are continuing their separate journey towards full political and monetary union. We will inevitably be bound by and disadvantaged by the decisions they make in their own interest.

    The time has come for us to frame a new independent relationship as good neighbours rather than remain a discontented junior partner picking up the bills but with no power to influence the rules of the club."

    "In June, we face tying ourselves in for the long term to be increasingly governed by a body that few understand or trust and whose powerful commissioners we cannot vote from office.

    For anyone concerned about issues such as TTIP or the ‘tampon tax’, the reality is that these are the domain of the unelected and unaccountable in Brussels and the list will only get longer"

    "My vote will count for no more than anyone else’s but, for what it’s worth, I am optimistic for our future, I believe the balance of our national interest now lies outside the EU and I will vote to leave."

    http://www.dartmouth-today.co.uk/article.cfm?id=103897&headline=MP Sarah Wollaston on the European Union question&sectionIs=news&searchyear=2016
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Scott_P said:

    John_M said:

    No one knows what the future will bring.

    I agree, but sadly again you are out of touch with your bedfellows

    Problem is that we don't know what will happen if we leave or remain.

    In that sense both campaigns are conning people.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Am told by someone in the know that @sarahwollaston IS poised to defect from #Voteleave to #remain (as picked up by @JGForsyth)

    Dr Sarah Wollaston is SeanT and I claim my £5.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Next Health Secretary ?

    International Development perhaps
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Jobabob said:

    Dr Sarah Wollaston is SeanT and I claim my £5.

    LOL
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    HurstLlama said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyBucket said:

    Whilst you could argue Sarah Wollaston is a principled politician, she is being pretty thin-skinned over this. I notice she hasn't criticised any of the Remain figures, so it will be interesting to see what this is really all about.

    Leave are on course for the mother of all shellackings, and no one wants to be associated with a defeat that would rival Zama?

    I think the realistic thing is she's a very deeply principled politician, who causes her own side as much grief as she does her opponents.

    I suspect she'll campaign on her for Leave, and not used any of the Vote Leave lines.

    She didn't like the NHS line, and I get the feeling she's not happy with the focus on Turkey
    Gonna tell us how tonight went on the doorsteps? Cat got your tongue?
    If tonight's voters are representative of England, then England will vote Remain.
    That is a bit naff, young Darth Eagles. It has about as much validity as me saying if the blokes up the pup earlier are representative of England, then England will vote to leave.
    Up the pup? Blimey you Southerners are weird.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    Casino_Royale said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyBucket said:

    Whilst you could argue Sarah Wollaston is a principled politician, she is being pretty thin-skinned over this. I notice she hasn't criticised any of the Remain figures, so it will be interesting to see what this is really all about.

    Leave are on course for the mother of all shellackings, and no one wants to be associated with a defeat that would rival Zama?

    I think the realistic thing is she's a very deeply principled politician, who causes her own side as much grief as she does her opponents.

    I suspect she'll campaign on her for Leave, and not used any of the Vote Leave lines.

    She didn't like the NHS line, and I get the feeling she's not happy with the focus on Turkey
    Gonna tell us how tonight went on the doorsteps? Cat got your tongue?
    If tonight's voters are representative of England, then England will vote Remain.
    Pathetically evasive.

    Remain are frit!
    You won't get a honest open answer from TSE.

    His role is to advocate and push Remain.
    He gets some sort of kick out of sticking two fingers up at right wing voters.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,713
    Casino_Royale said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT Re: Sarah Wollaston: I don't know what she'll do, but she may just abandon the campaign with a statement.

    If she does defect to Remain, I think that'll be viewed as quite cynical given her views up until now, which will then be thrown back at her.

    FPT


    If she defects to remain her integrity goes. Sajid Javid squared.

    The Tories are really not having a good campaign, reputations are being shredded.

    Meanwhile Jezza probably needs new bollocks as he's laughed the last lot off.
    This is one of those events that is very unfortunate two weeks out from the vote.

    But, there's not much that can be done about it.
    It;s one days news,

    Most voters won't have heard of her and the caravan will move on by Friday
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    Scott_P said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    What a fine principled, patriotic lioness

    If you troll any harder you might hurt yourself.
    Is unfortunate that I'm going to bed shortly, or the morning thread would be about her, wise and brilliant decision.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,258
    Right, logging off. My wife is back home.

    Enjoy, earthlings.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    TOPPING said:

    Scott_P said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Which Tony Blair chose not to exercise

    Just because Tony Blair was too stupid to exercise it, does not negate it's existence. Future PMs can veto changes in the rebate.
    Leavers have more of a problem with UK politicians making the "wrong" decisions now, in the past, and potentially in the future, than with the EU.

    If only they would admit it.
    I'll admit to having a problem with British politicians making damn silly decisions in the past and I expect they will in the future.

    Still think we would be a better place to live outside the EU, though.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,756
    Scott_P said:

    Sean_F said:

    Do you think that all businesses should receive public subsidies or is it restricted to agribusinesses?

    I think you can't take the existing subsidies away from agribusiness and "give it to the NHS' without consequences, which was my original point that you are desperately trying to squirm away from
    Not squirming. You're the one who's demanding subsidies for well to do people.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    I actually think that Vote Leave are justified in using the gross figure, but I can certainly see the objections to it.

    What I can't understand is, why would that make someone decide to switch sides (if that is what she is going to do)?

    I can't see an objection that holds water.

    If you were to ask me how much tax I pay, I'd give you the gross figure, not the figure minus the value of services I receive in return.
    Net of rebate is the correct figure to use.
    Agreed. I have never for the life of me been able to work out why Leave went with the amount including he rebate when using the gross without the rebate is entirely justified and would still equal £288 million a week. It is a bullet proof figure and still sounds like a vast amount of money.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Jobabob said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: Am told by someone in the know that @sarahwollaston IS poised to defect from #Voteleave to #remain (as picked up by @JGForsyth)

    Dr Sarah Wollaston is SeanT and I claim my £5.
    I wonder if there has been a crossed wire, she is swapping sides (would be odd) or there is some top trolling going on...

    Who knows?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sean_F said:

    Not squirming. You're the one who's demanding subsidies for well to do people.

    I am merely pointing out that people who want to go to hospital might also want to eat.

    It's your lot that are suggesting making that more difficult...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    Sean_F said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyBucket said:

    Whilst you could argue Sarah Wollaston is a principled politician, she is being pretty thin-skinned over this. I notice she hasn't criticised any of the Remain figures, so it will be interesting to see what this is really all about.

    Leave are on course for the mother of all shellackings, and no one wants to be associated with a defeat that would rival Zama?

    I think the realistic thing is she's a very deeply principled politician, who causes her own side as much grief as she does her opponents.

    I suspect she'll campaign on her for Leave, and not used any of the Vote Leave lines.

    She didn't like the NHS line, and I get the feeling she's not happy with the focus on Turkey
    Gonna tell us how tonight went on the doorsteps? Cat got your tongue?
    If tonight's voters are representative of England, then England will vote Remain.
    Pathetically evasive.

    Remain are frit!
    You won't get a honest open answer from TSE.

    His role is to advocate and push Remain.
    He gets some sort of kick out of sticking two fingers up at right wing voters.
    I'm a right wing voter and have been since I was 18. I've been advocating right wing policies since then. I would never stick two fingers up to any voters (well maybe BNP voters, when they weren't looking)

    How's campaigning going down in your part of the world?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,615
    Ooh, a possible defection. Not sure how this works for a referendum though, she's been quite forthright about her Leave views, contrary to her party's leadership - if she turns up tomorrow morning going on about "Nigel Farage's Little England" she'll just look stupid.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    BenedictWhite said:

    I wonder if there has been a crossed wire, she is swapping sides (would be odd) or there is some top trolling going on...

    Who knows?

    It is slightly curious that it has leaked tonight, we shall know soon enough.

    BTW, PtP confirmed receipt of our wager. He says Hi, and thinks I would win :)
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,428
    The membership fee for the EU is completely irrelevant to the argument of whether we should be in the EU or not. If you are opposed to membership even £1 is too much, but the amount is not your reason to leave. If you are in favour, the cost is what it is - not insignificant but as a small percentage of the total budget what you expect for that sort of thing. The cost would only come into play if you see the EU as a nice to have, but not especially important - like our membership of the World Tourism Organisation. I don't imagine there are very many people in that camp.

    I know people don't rationalise in that logical way. Nevertheless, I doubt the cost of membership is that salient. At most it will be "and another thing". I was surprised that Leave led on this as their key argument, mentioning it four times in their one pager.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, a possible defection. Not sure how this works for a referendum though, she's been quite forthright about her Leave views, contrary to her party's leadership - if she turns up tomorrow morning going on about "Nigel Farage's Little England" she'll just look stupid.

    I'm quite happy to give lessons to Leavers on how to deal with defectors.

    I was the model of restraint and rationality when Mark Reckless defected to UKIP.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sean_F said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RoyalBlue said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    LadyBucket said:

    Whilst you could argue Sarah Wollaston is a principled politician, she is being pretty thin-skinned over this. I notice she hasn't criticised any of the Remain figures, so it will be interesting to see what this is really all about.

    Leave are on course for the mother of all shellackings, and no one wants to be associated with a defeat that would rival Zama?

    I think the realistic thing is she's a very deeply principled politician, who causes her own side as much grief as she does her opponents.

    I suspect she'll campaign on her for Leave, and not used any of the Vote Leave lines.

    She didn't like the NHS line, and I get the feeling she's not happy with the focus on Turkey
    Gonna tell us how tonight went on the doorsteps? Cat got your tongue?
    If tonight's voters are representative of England, then England will vote Remain.
    Pathetically evasive.

    Remain are frit!
    You won't get a honest open answer from TSE.

    His role is to advocate and push Remain.
    He gets some sort of kick out of sticking two fingers up at right wing voters.
    I'm a right wing voter and have been since I was 18. I've been advocating right wing policies since then. I would never stick two fingers up to any voters (well maybe BNP voters, when they weren't looking)

    How's campaigning going down in your part of the world?
    I can report that the Wye Valley is a pretty solid 'Leave', which will surprise precisely no one.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    I actually think that Vote Leave are justified in using the gross figure, but I can certainly see the objections to it.

    What I can't understand is, why would that make someone decide to switch sides (if that is what she is going to do)?

    I can't see an objection that holds water.

    If you were to ask me how much tax I pay, I'd give you the gross figure, not the figure minus the value of services I receive in return.
    Net of rebate is the correct figure to use.
    Agreed. I have never for the life of me been able to work out why Leave went with the amount including he rebate when using the gross without the rebate is entirely justified and would still equal £288 million a week. It is a bullet proof figure and still sounds like a vast amount of money.
    No one was ever going to say: Well I was going to leave as £350m is a hell of a lot of money but £288m seems about right so I will now vote Remain.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT Re: Sarah Wollaston: I don't know what she'll do, but she may just abandon the campaign with a statement.

    If she does defect to Remain, I think that'll be viewed as quite cynical given her views up until now, which will then be thrown back at her.

    FPT


    If she defects to remain her integrity goes. Sajid Javid squared.

    The Tories are really not having a good campaign, reputations are being shredded.

    Meanwhile Jezza probably needs new bollocks as he's laughed the last lot off.
    This is one of those events that is very unfortunate two weeks out from the vote.

    But, there's not much that can be done about it.
    Not saying this is the case here as I suspect this is NHS related but it would be good battle plan to put a couple of Tory MP sleepers in the leave campsign
    Seriously? Wow! That is up there with some of the tin foil hat conspiracies so beloved of the Cybernats during Indy Ref campaign.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,615
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, a possible defection. Not sure how this works for a referendum though, she's been quite forthright about her Leave views, contrary to her party's leadership - if she turns up tomorrow morning going on about "Nigel Farage's Little England" she'll just look stupid.

    I'm quite happy to give lessons to Leavers on how to deal with defectors.

    I was the model of restraint and rationality when Mark Reckless defected to UKIP.
    LOL. That TPD, we remember!

    Favourite moment last May, Reckless or Balls?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GdnPolitics: Voting to leave the EU means embracing Farage's 'mean and divisive' vision of UK https://t.co/j8bRNbOqVq
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Scott_P said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    I wonder if there has been a crossed wire, she is swapping sides (would be odd) or there is some top trolling going on...

    Who knows?

    It is slightly curious that it has leaked tonight, we shall know soon enough.

    BTW, PtP confirmed receipt of our wager. He says Hi, and thinks I would win :)
    We'll see on the punt. The EU is really bad at trade deals because there is always someone in the EU with a reason not to sign it.

    I could see her walking out, or swapping campaigns, I just can't see it particularly defensible.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,418
    TOPPING said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    I actually think that Vote Leave are justified in using the gross figure, but I can certainly see the objections to it.

    What I can't understand is, why would that make someone decide to switch sides (if that is what she is going to do)?

    I can't see an objection that holds water.

    If you were to ask me how much tax I pay, I'd give you the gross figure, not the figure minus the value of services I receive in return.
    Net of rebate is the correct figure to use.
    Agreed. I have never for the life of me been able to work out why Leave went with the amount including he rebate when using the gross without the rebate is entirely justified and would still equal £288 million a week. It is a bullet proof figure and still sounds like a vast amount of money.
    No one was ever going to say: Well I was going to leave as £350m is a hell of a lot of money but £288m seems about right so I will now vote Remain.
    I read over the weekend why Leave went with the £350m figure.

    Because £50m a day is a lot more eyecatching than £41.14m per day
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    fitalass said:

    Twitter
    Isabel Hardman ‏@IsabelHardman 1h1 hour ago
    Am not always v complimentary about Osborne but he is coming across v well in this interview. Human and statesmanlike.

    I think human is bit of a stretch...........
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JGForsyth: I am now certain that @sarahwollaston will be defecting from Vote Leave tomorrow
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Ooh, a possible defection. Not sure how this works for a referendum though, she's been quite forthright about her Leave views, contrary to her party's leadership - if she turns up tomorrow morning going on about "Nigel Farage's Little England" she'll just look stupid.

    I'm quite happy to give lessons to Leavers on how to deal with defectors.

    I was the model of restraint and rationality when Mark Reckless defected to UKIP.
    Yes, but that's only because it was a case of good riddance though..
This discussion has been closed.