So far on this thread I've seen Remainers referred to as "scum", as "anti-democrats" and read talk of how we must be "CRUSHED" - talk which was then applauded.
Clearly I was very wrong to return to this site. Fine, I'm gone for good this time. The atmosphere is vile and full of hate. If you hard line Leavers wish to converse on here with nobody other than those who share your own views then you're clearly very close to achieving that goal. I'm not the first to go and I'm sure I'll not be the last either.
I've had enough too. Not a sane place for discussion at the moment. I'll look in again after the referendum and with a bit the worst offenders will have spontaneously combusted after Remain have won.
I think as a Remainer you are required to remain. We are becoming an endangered species,
Be nice if the remaining remainers didnt play the man not the ball and then accuse the other side of the same
@JoeWatts_: @DanHannanMEP says if it's a very tight win for #Leave there will have to be a middle way found between #Remain and full #Brexit
Hmm. If Hannan has said that I don't think he's just being nice to Remainers. He must either think Leave will win comfortably (and he wants to sound statesmanlike in the meantime) or he thinks it will be very close either way and wants to put pressure on Remain to make an equivalent commitment.
Or he has always been in favour of full freedom of movement and is using "controlled migration" as a cloak to disguise what he really thinks and gain the votes of antiimmigrationists. See also BoJo (and come to think of it, Gove?)
The craziness of our immigration system in one little vignette. A neighbour a few doors down to me is American. He's a lecturer in psychology, married to a British woman who has a high powered job in finance with a big US corporation. They met when she was based in the US when he was doing some work for her firm. They've been in this country since 2013. They rent the house, but were hoping to buy it once he'd been granted leave to settle over here. For some reason, he's been told he doesn't meet the criteria to stay, something to do with his earnings not being enough, even though his wife earns a fortune. I don't know all the details, to be fair. Appeals to Nicky Morgan, our MP, to get involved fell on deaf ears. Fortunately, his wife's firm have offered her her old position back in the states with a better package, and they're paying to ship their stuff back to the states, so they're packing up to leave tonight. The firm packing their stuff up have sent two Polish lads to box up, who barely speak English. The street is in uproar. They want out.
TBF the immigration rules your street object to are under our control already. Brexit would just allow us to extend the same stupidity across the board.
Not so. There has been a massive tightening up in 'soft' immigration targets over the last few years to compensate for the fact that EU migration is so large. Non EU migrants with a lot to offer the country are being thrown out in favour of EU migrants who may have nothing to offer at all.
The majority Of EU migrants in 2015 had a job , the majority of non EU migrants ( circa 180,000 ) who came here in 2015 did not become employed .
Unless there was a massive change from the previous year the majority of those non EU migrants came for study purposes.
In 2014 133,000 non EU migrants came to the UK to study. Another 66,000 came to work.
Peter Lilley objects to human rights being part of trade deals which is something EU trade negotiators insist on. Something Leavers consider trivial. I have no idea whether it's important or not but for those who remember Peter Lilley singing at Party Conferences it doesn't look good. Moreso as the story followed Mike Ashley where conditions were so bad a pregnant woman had to give birth in a toilet
Anyone think Leave are starting to wobble?
Enjoyed his 'little list'; detest the way we can't call a spade a spade anymore.
I know. They outlawed the N word about 20 years ago.
@JoeWatts_: @DanHannanMEP says if it's a very tight win for #Leave there will have to be a middle way found between #Remain and full #Brexit
Wow. Sounds like Boris's original plan is gaining currency amongst Leave - send Dave or whoever back to the negotiating table for EU-membership Lite. I think we all know what's going on here: Boris is holding sway, the eurosceptic Tories are rallying round him, and the plan is now not to do anything silly that could screw up Boris's first term. As I said a few days ago, in this scenario the die-hards might fume about immigration, but Boris could live with that - it would just leave the Kippers and co. owning the nasty bit.
Peter Lilley objects to human rights being part of trade deals which is something EU trade negotiators insist on. Something Leavers consider trivial. I have no idea whether it's important or not but for those who remember Peter Lilley singing at Party Conferences it doesn't look good. Moreso as the story followed Mike Ashley where conditions were so bad a pregnant woman had to give birth in a toilet
Anyone think Leave are starting to wobble?
Looking forward to Farage vs Cameron. Are you ?
Neither exactly floats my boat. As Farage has spent most of his life arguing this one he should start at an advantage. Any thoughts?
Sticky wicket for Dodgy Dave. That wrong'n never learnt how to play a straight bat.
So anyhoo. Got a bit cheery today when I realised that if LEAVE won, my returns (tho' not my winnings!) would be of the same order of magnitude of my bonus. Yay!
Then I got a bit glum when I realised that if LEAVE won, nobody would be getting a bonus next year...
@JoeWatts_: @DanHannanMEP says if it's a very tight win for #Leave there will have to be a middle way found between #Remain and full #Brexit
Wow. Sounds like Boris's original plan is gaining currency amongst Leave - send Dave or whoever back to the negotiating table for EU-membership Lite. I think we all know what's going on here: Boris is holding sway, the eurosceptic Tories are rallying round him, and the plan is now not to do anything silly that could screw up Boris's first term. As I said a few days ago, in this scenario the die-hards might fume about immigration, but Boris could live with that - it would just leave the Kippers and co. owning the nasty bit.
Not trying to stage a flounce or anything but I am probably going to leave this site too. It's really betting on politics that interests me and there's very little discussion of that subject in the below-the-line comments any more. Practically none in fact.
There's lots of interesting stuff in the thread headers but I can get that from following Mike et al on Twitter.
No it won't, all he got them to agree to was to let the UK prorate the benefit according to the cost of living in the country the kid is living in. Bureaucratic nightmare or what, it would have to be calculated for each country where someone is sending benefit to a child, and constantly updated, not only that in some of the countries we would have to pay more rather than less.
Ah, that's right, it will probably cost more to implement than it will save.
@JoeWatts_: @DanHannanMEP says if it's a very tight win for #Leave there will have to be a middle way found between #Remain and full #Brexit
I don't get what the margin of victory has to do with it. At the end of the day we are voting on whether or not to remain in the EU. What leave actually looks like is up to our elected politicians.
If the voters don't like what they do between now and the next election then they can kick them out.
So anyhoo. Got a bit cheery today when I realised that if LEAVE won, my returns (tho' not my winnings!) would be of the same order of magnitude of my bonus. Yay!
Then I got a bit glum when I realised that if LEAVE won, nobody would be getting a bonus next year...
Nice to know what really motivates you.
Money is like oxygen. If you have enough it's unimportant. If you don't, it's vital.
@JoeWatts_: @DanHannanMEP says if it's a very tight win for #Leave there will have to be a middle way found between #Remain and full #Brexit
Hmm. If Hannan has said that I don't think he's just being nice to Remainers. He must either think Leave will win comfortably (and he wants to sound statesmanlike in the meantime) or he thinks it will be very close either way and wants to put pressure on Remain to make an equivalent commitment.
Or he has always been in favour of full freedom of movement and is using "controlled migration" as a cloak to disguise what he really thinks and gain the votes of antiimmigrationists. See also BoJo (and come to think of it, Gove?)
You beat me to it! It's obvious that the euro-sceptic Tories have a plan, and it involves moving the Kippers on to the anti-immigration fringe. It's straight out of the New Labour playbook, and it is Gove, of course, who refers to Blair as 'the Master'.
Sky News bad news for leave. 65 billion gone out of UK in last two months. Maybe this is why leave are drifting in the betting
If that were true the pound would have collapsed over the period. It has actually appreciated since March, when it went sub 1.40 when Boris joined Vote Leave.
More Remain lies.
Now you are saying Sky News are part of the lies. You really csnnot address any fact without trashing it. Fact - 65 billion has gone out of UK assets or converted into foreign currency in last two months
Why are you here? I thought you'd promised to log off and not come back until 24th June?
@JoeWatts_: @DanHannanMEP says if it's a very tight win for #Leave there will have to be a middle way found between #Remain and full #Brexit
Hmm. If Hannan has said that I don't think he's just being nice to Remainers. He must either think Leave will win comfortably (and he wants to sound statesmanlike in the meantime) or he thinks it will be very close either way and wants to put pressure on Remain to make an equivalent commitment.
Remain can't. They will be represented by the EU and do not have the ability to negotiate anything.
Peter Lilley objects to human rights being part of trade deals which is something EU trade negotiators insist on. Something Leavers consider trivial. I have no idea whether it's important or not but for those who remember Peter Lilley singing at Party Conferences it doesn't look good. Moreso as the story followed Mike Ashley where conditions were so bad a pregnant woman had to give birth in a toilet
Anyone think Leave are starting to wobble?
Enjoyed his 'little list'; detest the way we can't call a spade a spade anymore.
I know. They outlawed the N word about 20 years ago.
There you go again. Reading what you want into things
Scrounging was the main theme of the speech.
Now we can only talk about 'hard working people' and 'others'....
Peter Lilley objects to human rights being part of trade deals which is something EU trade negotiators insist on. Something Leavers consider trivial. I have no idea whether it's important or not but for those who remember Peter Lilley singing at Party Conferences it doesn't look good. Moreso as the story followed Mike Ashley where conditions were so bad a pregnant woman had to give birth in a toilet
Anyone think Leave are starting to wobble?
Looking forward to Farage vs Cameron. Are you ?
Neither exactly floats my boat. As Farage has spent most of his life arguing this one he should start at an advantage. Any thoughts?
Not a Nigel fan and Cameron has not exactly covered himself in glory in my view on the EU since Feb, so a bit like choosing between a cough and a cold. Agree it's Farage's specialism but can he pitch it right, avoid getting angry, or weird? Can Cameron get the audience to listen properly compared to the other day when I felt he wasn't cutting through,
Serious question: what are the French thinking in your locale ( you live there don't you?)
Peter Lilley objects to human rights being part of trade deals which is something EU trade negotiators insist on. Something Leavers consider trivial. I have no idea whether it's important or not but for those who remember Peter Lilley singing at Party Conferences it doesn't look good. Moreso as the story followed Mike Ashley where conditions were so bad a pregnant woman had to give birth in a toilet
Anyone think Leave are starting to wobble?
Enjoyed his 'little list'; detest the way we can't call a spade a spade anymore.
I know. They outlawed the N word about 20 years ago.
There you go again. Reading what you want into things
Scrounging was the main theme of the speech.
Now we can only talk about 'hard working people' and 'others'....
I suspect that there are people who were unaware that an alternative word for shovel was as offensive as the N word when used in a certain context until they read that post. Presumably he intended it to be a pun but methinks in rather poor taste.
@JoeWatts_: @DanHannanMEP says if it's a very tight win for #Leave there will have to be a middle way found between #Remain and full #Brexit
Wow. Sounds like Boris's original plan is gaining currency amongst Leave - send Dave or whoever back to the negotiating table for EU-membership Lite.
This sounds very much like the scenarios people were talking about before the GE: Sturgeon as deputy PM, Clegg forming a government, the Tories daring Labour to vote against a Tory queen's speech, and so on.
It's all fantasy, in my opinion. If Leave gets 50.001%, Britain will leave the EU. If Leave gets 49.999%, Britain will stay in the EU.
If Leave wins, no "EU membership lite" will even be considered, unless that means something like the Norwegian model. The key issue in post-Leave negotiations would be the Square Mile. I don't think the two-year period would be extended. If that happened, the Tory party would be smashed.
@JoeWatts_: @DanHannanMEP says if it's a very tight win for #Leave there will have to be a middle way found between #Remain and full #Brexit
Hmm. If Hannan has said that I don't think he's just being nice to Remainers. He must either think Leave will win comfortably (and he wants to sound statesmanlike in the meantime) or he thinks it will be very close either way and wants to put pressure on Remain to make an equivalent commitment.
Or he has always been in favour of full freedom of movement and is using "controlled migration" as a cloak to disguise what he really thinks and gain the votes of antiimmigrationists. See also BoJo (and come to think of it, Gove?)
You beat me to it! It's obvious that the euro-sceptic Tories have a plan, and it involves moving the Kippers on to the anti-immigration fringe. It's straight out of the New Labour playbook, and it is Gove, of course, who refers to Blair as 'the Master'.
Mr. Royale, this, by Mr. Fire below, is relevant to the Astor comments: "OK, that's [Astor's comments] different, and I completely agree that would be outrageous."
Thank you MD. Much as I hope Remain win, I too would be out with placards were Parliament to overrule or ignore a Leave result as Astor appears to have suggested.
But you have said you see no problem in keeping us in the single market, even in the event of a leave vote. I'm not sure how that would even be possible, unless we join EFTA, in which case all the arguments we've been having about immigration and access to the single market will be moot.
My point is that it is up to Parliament to decide. A Leave result (morally) binds Parliament to leave the EU. It doesn't mandate what happens next. So, yes, the arguments on immigration may be moot if Parliament were to decide to down the EFTA route. It's Parliament's call.
Yebbut.....
The problem is that the Tories stood on a manifesto pledge of reducing immigration to fewer than 100k net per year.. and they form a majority of MPs.The only way to honour that pledge is to leave the EU and the EEA.
If the Tories en masse for EFTA without stopping free movement they will be crucified at the next opportunity. See LibDems for details.
It is worth remembering that non-EU immigration is currently running at 155,000 a year. So, the government is lucky to have the excuse of the EU to draw attention from the fact that even if EU immigration was zero, they would have missed by more than 50%.
According to the May 2016 ONS figures there were 277 000 non-EU immigrants in 2015, and 188 000 when looking at the net figure. Obviously, short of deportation, we can only influence arrivals not departures.
Presumably many of the EU migrants (French financiers, German bankers, Greek doctors, Portuguese nurses etc) would either be permitted under the new points system, or substituted by other nationalities with the same skills. This would be a fair number as the employment rate of EU migrants is high, perhaps 60 000 to 70 000. This would make for net immigration of about a quarter of a million.
It seems daft to me to discriminate against EU migrants with a common culture, high employment rate, good history of integration and high rate of speaking English in favour of communities that are much less integrated even generations later.
@JoeWatts_: @DanHannanMEP says if it's a very tight win for #Leave there will have to be a middle way found between #Remain and full #Brexit
Hmm. If Hannan has said that I don't think he's just being nice to Remainers. He must either think Leave will win comfortably (and he wants to sound statesmanlike in the meantime) or he thinks it will be very close either way and wants to put pressure on Remain to make an equivalent commitment.
Remain can't. They will be represented by the EU and do not have the ability to negotiate anything.
Eh? Both sides have the same capabilities. They would both be the British Government after the vote.
If what he means is that a 51/49 Leave win should mean EEA then he can reasonably argue that a 51/49 Remain win should too and press Cameron to sign up to that.
So far on this thread I've seen Remainers referred to as "scum", as "anti-democrats" and read talk of how we must be "CRUSHED" - talk which was then applauded.
Clearly I was very wrong to return to this site. Fine, I'm gone for good this time. The atmosphere is vile and full of hate. If you hard line Leavers wish to converse on here with nobody other than those who share your own views then you're clearly very close to achieving that goal. I'm not the first to go and I'm sure I'll not be the last either.
I've had enough too. Not a sane place for discussion at the moment. I'll look in again after the referendum and with a bit the worst offenders will have spontaneously combusted after Remain have won.
I think as a Remainer you are required to remain. We are becoming an endangered species,
Roger, as a Scots Tory I am used to being an endangered species. I have always been a Eurosceptic, but the two year Indy Ref campaign finally convinced me that we are better off fighting to try and fix the problems within the EU rather than jumping ship. So I am voting Remain for both economic and security stability at a very dangerous time, and when the UK has never been in a stronger position within the EU. We have already successfully proved that we still make our own major economic decisions like retaining our own currency. We were once the sick man of Europe, and now its fascinating to see that now others in the EU are in that position some want to head for the exit whatever the risks to our own economy and security.
It will be interesting to see if there are any visible wobbles or pressure applied within the EU over the next few weeks which result in the UK being offered a big sweetener to stay in.
@JoeWatts_: @DanHannanMEP says if it's a very tight win for #Leave there will have to be a middle way found between #Remain and full #Brexit
Hmm. If Hannan has said that I don't think he's just being nice to Remainers. He must either think Leave will win comfortably (and he wants to sound statesmanlike in the meantime) or he thinks it will be very close either way and wants to put pressure on Remain to make an equivalent commitment.
Remain can't. They will be represented by the EU and do not have the ability to negotiate anything.
Eh? Both sides have the same capabilities. They would both be the British Government after the vote.
If what he means is that a 51/49 Leave win should mean EEA then he can reasonably argue that a 51/49 Remain win should too and press Cameron to sign up to that.
To understand Hannan's response you must understand what he wants. I know many here admire Hannan (I don't), and if memory serves I think some have met him (Casino Royale?) so in deference to their feelings I won't bang on. If you want to find out why I think Hannan said what he said, see below.
Table 3: Grants by visa categories to non-EEA nationals, UK, YE March 2016
United Kingdom
Visa category Visa granted Total 531,375
Study 206,162 Work: 163,857 High value & Skilled work (Tiers 1 & 2) 96,616 Youth mobility, temporary and other work visas (Tier 5 & other) 67,241 Short-term students 64,798 Family-related 38,274 Other 58,284 Source: Home Office, Immigration Statistics January to March 2016
Apologies for my earlier error - I read the high value ones as additional to total workers - they are actually part of that number.
The craziness of our immigration system in one little vignette. A neighbour a few doors down to me is American. He's a lecturer in psychology, married to a British woman who has a high powered job in finance with a big US corporation. They met when she was based in the US when he was doing some work for her firm. They've been in this country since 2013. They rent the house, but were hoping to buy it once he'd been granted leave to settle over here. For some reason, he's been told he doesn't meet the criteria to stay, something to do with his earnings not being enough, even though his wife earns a fortune. I don't know all the details, to be fair. Appeals to Nicky Morgan, our MP, to get involved fell on deaf ears. Fortunately, his wife's firm have offered her her old position back in the states with a better package, and they're paying to ship their stuff back to the states, so they're packing up to leave tonight. The firm packing their stuff up have sent two Polish lads to box up, who barely speak English. The street is in uproar. They want out.
TBF the immigration rules your street object to are under our control already. Brexit would just allow us to extend the same stupidity across the board.
Not so. There has been a massive tightening up in 'soft' immigration targets over the last few years to compensate for the fact that EU migration is so large. Non EU migrants with a lot to offer the country are being thrown out in favour of EU migrants who may have nothing to offer at all.
The majority Of EU migrants in 2015 had a job , the majority of non EU migrants ( circa 180,000 ) who came here in 2015 did not become employed .
Doesn't that reflect the fact the hanger oners have to come with the non EU migrants? The EU workers can claim benefits for their kids back home - though I think that will end once Dave's deal is ratified.
I believe child benefits for the overseas children of EU migrants are to continue after negotiation but at local prices instead of UK prices.
Peter Lilley objects to human rights being part of trade deals which is something EU trade negotiators insist on. Something Leavers consider trivial. I have no idea whether it's important or not but for those who remember Peter Lilley singing at Party Conferences it doesn't look good. Moreso as the story followed Mike Ashley where conditions were so bad a pregnant woman had to give birth in a toilet
Anyone think Leave are starting to wobble?
Looking forward to Farage vs Cameron. Are you ?
Neither exactly floats my boat. As Farage has spent most of his life arguing this one he should start at an advantage. Any thoughts?
Not a Nigel fan and Cameron has not exactly covered himself in glory in my view on the EU since Feb, so a bit like choosing between a cough and a cold. Agree it's Farage's specialism but can he pitch it right, avoid getting angry, or weird? Can Cameron get the audience to listen properly compared to the other day when I felt he wasn't cutting through,
Serious question: what are the French thinking in your locale ( you live there don't you?)
I have a place near Nice and spend quite a bit of time there. My impression is that the locals are rather disinterested and the news channels are hardly covering it. It'll change in the next two weeks but I'm not going to be there
The craziness of our immigration system in one little vignette. A neighbour a few doors down to me is American. He's a lecturer in psychology, married to a British woman who has a high powered job in finance with a big US corporation. They met when she was based in the US when he was doing some work for her firm. They've been in this country since 2013. They rent the house, but were hoping to buy it once he'd been granted leave to settle over here. For some reason, he's been told he doesn't meet the criteria to stay, something to do with his earnings not being enough, even though his wife earns a fortune. I don't know all the details, to be fair. Appeals to Nicky Morgan, our MP, to get involved fell on deaf ears. Fortunately, his wife's firm have offered her her old position back in the states with a better package, and they're paying to ship their stuff back to the states, so they're packing up to leave tonight. The firm packing their stuff up have sent two Polish lads to box up, who barely speak English. The street is in uproar. They want out.
TBF the immigration rules your street object to are under our control already. Brexit would just allow us to extend the same stupidity across the board.
Not so. There has been a massive tightening up in 'soft' immigration targets over the last few years to compensate for the fact that EU migration is so large. Non EU migrants with a lot to offer the country are being thrown out in favour of EU migrants who may have nothing to offer at all.
The majority Of EU migrants in 2015 had a job , the majority of non EU migrants ( circa 180,000 ) who came here in 2015 did not become employed .
Doesn't that reflect the fact the hanger oners have to come with the non EU migrants? The EU workers can claim benefits for their kids back home - though I think that will end once Dave's deal is ratified.
I believe child benefits for the overseas children of EU migrants are to continue after negotiation but at local prices instead of UK prices.
Yep if they are lower in the home country then they will be lower here but I think if they are higher then we pay more
@JoeWatts_: @DanHannanMEP says if it's a very tight win for #Leave there will have to be a middle way found between #Remain and full #Brexit
Hmm. If Hannan has said that I don't think he's just being nice to Remainers. He must either think Leave will win comfortably (and he wants to sound statesmanlike in the meantime) or he thinks it will be very close either way and wants to put pressure on Remain to make an equivalent commitment.
Remain can't. They will be represented by the EU and do not have the ability to negotiate anything.
Eh? Both sides have the same capabilities. They would both be the British Government after the vote.
If what he means is that a 51/49 Leave win should mean EEA then he can reasonably argue that a 51/49 Remain win should too and press Cameron to sign up to that.
If it is a REMAIN majority, however small, then there will be no renegotiation with the EU.
Unless there is a trigger by a LEAVE vote there can be no change from what we have already negotiated with the other members of the EU.
Comments
The EU wants to censor the Internet and crush freedom of speech and religion
In 2014 133,000 non EU migrants came to the UK to study. Another 66,000 came to work.
Edited to add source
http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/migration1/migration-statistics-quarterly-report/february-2015/sty-net-migration.html
62% of intending Remain voters think Leaving would increase immigration or leave it the same, and 38% think it would reduce it;
whereas among intending Leave voters, the figures are 10% and 90%.
NEW THREAD NEW THREAD
There's lots of interesting stuff in the thread headers but I can get that from following Mike et al on Twitter.
If the voters don't like what they do between now and the next election then they can kick them out.
Scrounging was the main theme of the speech.
Now we can only talk about 'hard working people' and 'others'....
Serious question: what are the French thinking in your locale ( you live there don't you?)
All it will do is make the removed things go viral.
Nice try neofrancos
It's all fantasy, in my opinion. If Leave gets 50.001%, Britain will leave the EU. If Leave gets 49.999%, Britain will stay in the EU.
If Leave wins, no "EU membership lite" will even be considered, unless that means something like the Norwegian model. The key issue in post-Leave negotiations would be the Square Mile. I don't think the two-year period would be extended. If that happened, the Tory party would be smashed.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2016
Presumably many of the EU migrants (French financiers, German bankers, Greek doctors, Portuguese nurses etc) would either be permitted under the new points system, or substituted by other nationalities with the same skills. This would be a fair number as the employment rate of EU migrants is high, perhaps 60 000 to 70 000. This would make for net immigration of about a quarter of a million.
It seems daft to me to discriminate against EU migrants with a common culture, high employment rate, good history of integration and high rate of speaking English in favour of communities that are much less integrated even generations later.
If what he means is that a 51/49 Leave win should mean EEA then he can reasonably argue that a 51/49 Remain win should too and press Cameron to sign up to that.
He doesn't look very keen on it by the end either!
It will be interesting to see if there are any visible wobbles or pressure applied within the EU over the next few weeks which result in the UK being offered a big sweetener to stay in.
United Kingdom
Visa category Visa granted Total 531,375
Study 206,162
Work: 163,857
High value & Skilled work (Tiers 1 & 2) 96,616
Youth mobility, temporary and other work visas (Tier 5 & other) 67,241
Short-term students 64,798
Family-related 38,274
Other 58,284
Source: Home Office, Immigration Statistics January to March 2016
Apologies for my earlier error - I read the high value ones as additional to total workers - they are actually part of that number.
Unless there is a trigger by a LEAVE vote there can be no change from what we have already negotiated with the other members of the EU.